Daniel Pauly: The ocean's shifting baseline

Prevoditelj: Senzos Osijek Recezent: Suzana Baric

I'm going to speak

Pričat ću

about a tiny, little idea.

o jednoj sitnoj ideji.

And this is about shifting baseline.

I to o promjeni osnove.

And because the idea can be explained in one minute,

Kako ta ideja može biti objašnjena u jednoj minuti,

I will tell you three stories before

prije nje ću vam ispričati tri priče

to fill in the time.

da popunim vrijeme.

And the first story

Prva priča je

is about Charles Darwin, one of my heroes.

o Charlesu Darwinu, jednom od mojih heroja.

And he was here, as you well know, in '35.

On je bio ovdje, kao što svi dobro znate, u '35.

And you'd think he was chasing finches,

I mislili biste da je tražio zebe,

but he wasn't.

ali nije.

He was actually collecting fish.

Ustvari je sakupljao ribu.

And he described one of them

I jednu od njih je opisao

as very "common."

kao jako "uobičajenu".

This was the sailfin grouper.

To je bila Mycteroperca olfax.

A big fishery was run on it

Do '80-ih su je

until the '80s.

mnogo lovili.

Now the fish is on the IUCN Red List.

Sada je ta riba na IUCN-ovom (Međunarodni savez za očuvanje prirode) crvenom popisu.

Now this story,

Ta priča,

we have heard it lots of times

čuli smo je puno puta

on Galapagos and other places,

na Galapagosu i ostalim mjestima

so there is nothing particular about it.

pa nije ništa posebno.

But the point is, we still come to Galapagos.

Ali poanta je, svejedno dolazimo na Galapagos.

We still think it is pristine.

Još uvijek mislimo da je nedirnut.

The brochures still say

Brošure još uvijek kažu

it is untouched.

da je netaknut.

So what happens here?

Što se događa ovdje?

The second story, also to illustrate another concept,

Druga priča, također da ilustriram jedan drugi koncept,

is called shifting waistline.

zove se promjena obujma struka.

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

Because I was there in '71,

Zato što sam proučavao lagunu

studying a lagoon in West Africa.

u Zapadnoj Africi '71.

I was there because I grew up in Europe

Bio sam tamo jer sam odrastao u Europi

and I wanted later to work in Africa.

i želio sam kasnije raditi u Africi.

And I thought I could blend in.

I pomislio sam da ću se uspjeti uklopiti.

And I got a big sunburn,

Zadobio sam veliku opekotinu od sunca

and I was convinced that I was really not from there.

i bio sam uvjeren da nisam zapravo od tamo.

This was my first sunburn.

To je bila moja prva opekotina.

And the lagoon

Laguna je

was surrounded by palm trees,

bila okružena palmama,

as you can see, and a few mangrove.

kao što možete vidjeti, i par mangrova.

And it had tilapia

Imala je tilapije

about 20 centimeters,

duge oko 20 centimetara,

a species of tilapia called blackchin tilapia.

vrstu tilapije koja se zove crnobradata tilapija.

And the fisheries for this tilapia

Ribolov na tilapije

sustained lots of fish and they had a good time

sadržavao je mnoštvo ribe i dobro e išao

and they earned more than average

te se zaradilo više nego u prosjeku

in Ghana.

u Gani.

When I went there 27 years later,

Kada sam otišao tamo 27 godina kasnije,

the fish had shrunk to half of their size.

riba se smanjila na pola svoje veličine.

They were maturing at five centimeters.

Sazrijevale su s pet centimetra.

They had been pushed genetically.

Potaknute su genetski.

There were still fishes.

Još je bilo ribe.

They were still kind of happy.

I ribari su još uvijek na neki način bili sretni.

And the fish also were happy to be there.

I ribe su bile sretne što su tamo.

So nothing has changed,

Ništa se nije promijenilo,

but everything has changed.

ali sve se promijenilo.

My third little story

Moja treća pričica jest

is that I was an accomplice

da sam bio suučesnik

in the introduction of trawling

početaka kočarenja

in Southeast Asia.

u južnoistočnoj Aziji.

In the '70s -- well, beginning in the '60s --

U 70-ima – pa, s početkom u 60-ima –

Europe did lots of development projects.

Europa je radila na mnogo razvojnih projekata.

Fish development

Unaprijeđenje ribarstva

meant imposing on countries

je značilo nametanje

that had already 100,000 fishers

industrijskog ribarstva

to impose on them industrial fishing.

na zemlje koje već imaju 100 000 ribara.

And this boat, quite ugly,

Brod se zvao, prilično ružno,

is called the Mutiara 4.

Mutiara 4.

And I went sailing on it,

Plovio sam se na njemu,

and we did surveys

i istraživali smo

throughout the southern South China sea

cijelu južnu stranu Južnog kineskog mora,

and especially the Java Sea.

a posebno Javansko more.

And what we caught,

Ostali smo bez riječi

we didn't have words for it.

zbog onoga što smo uhvatili.

What we caught, I know now,

Sada znam, da je ono što smo uhvatili

is the bottom of the sea.

bilo dno mora.

And 90 percent of our catch

90 posto našeg ulova

were sponges,

bile su spužve,

other animals that are fixed on the bottom.

ostale životinje koje su čvrsto na dnu.

And actually most of the fish,

I zapravo, većina ribe,

they are a little spot on the debris,

bile su male točke smeća,

the piles of debris, were coral reef fish.

hrpe smeća, bile su ribe koraljnih grebena.

Essentially the bottom of the sea came onto the deck

U biti, dno mora se diglo na palubu

and then was thrown down.

i onda bilo bačeno dolje.

And these pictures are extraordinary

Ove slike su izvanredne

because this transition is very rapid.

jer je taj prijelaz veoma brz.

Within a year, you do a survey

U jednoj godini, napraviš istraživanje

and then commercial fishing begins.

i onda komercijalno ribarstvo počinje.

The bottom is transformed

Dno je promijenjeno

from, in this case, a hard bottom or soft coral

iz, u ovom slučaju, tvrdog dna ili mekanog koralja

into a muddy mess.

u blatni nered.

This is a dead turtle.

Ovo je mrtva kornjača.

They were not eaten, they were thrown away because they were dead.

Nisu pojedene, bačene su, zato što su mrtve.

And one time we caught a live one.

Jednom smo uhvatili živu kornjaču.

It was not drowned yet.

Još se nije utopila.

And then they wanted to kill it because it was good to eat.

I onda su je htjeli ubiti jer je bila jestiva.

This mountain of debris

Ovu planina smeća

is actually collected by fishers

ustvari skupe ribari

every time they go

svaki put kada odu

into an area that's never been fished.

u područje u kojem se još nije lovilo.

But it's not documented.

Ali to nije dokumentirano.

We transform the world,

Mijenjamo svijet,

but we don't remember it.

ali to ne pamtimo.

We adjust our baseline

Pomičemo osnovicu

to the new level,

na novu razinu,

and we don't recall what was there.

a ne sjećamo se što je bilo tamo.

If you generalize this,

Ako generaliziramo,

something like this happens.

nešto takvo se događa.

You have on the y axis some good thing:

Na y osi imamo neke dobre stvari:

biodiversity, numbers of orca,

biološku raznolikost, broj orki,

the greenness of your country, the water supply.

zelenilo u državi, zalihu vode.

And over time it changes --

I s vremenom se to mijenja.

it changes

Mijenja se

because people do things, or naturally.

jer ljudi sve rade prirodno.

Every generation

Svaka generacija

will use the images

će koristiti slike

that they got at the beginning of their conscious lives

koje su dobili na početku svog svjesnog života

as a standard

kao standard

and will extrapolate forward.

i procijenit će vrijednost dalje.

And the difference then,

I razliku će tada vidjeti

they perceive as a loss.

kao gubitak.

But they don't perceive what happened before as a loss.

Ali ne primjećuju što se dogodilo prije kao gubitak.

You can have a succession of changes.

I možete imati slijed promjena.

At the end you want to sustain

Na kraju želite zadržati

miserable leftovers.

jadne ostatke.

And that, to a large extent, is what we want to do now.

I to je to ono što želimo napraviti sada.

We want to sustain things that are gone

Želimo zadržati stvari koje su nestale

or things that are not the way they were.

ili stvari koje više nisu kakve su bile.

Now one should think

Čovjek bi trebao misliti

this problem affected people

da je ovaj problem pogodio ljude

certainly when in predatory societies,

u predatorskim društvima,

they killed animals

ubijali su životinje

and they didn't know they had done so

i nisu znali što su napravili

after a few generations.

generacijama dalje.

Because, obviously,

Očito,

an animal that is very abundant,

životinja koje ima u velikom broju,

before it gets extinct,

prije nego izumre,

it becomes rare.

postane rijetka vrsta.

So you don't lose abundant animals.

Ne izgubite vrste kojih ima mnogo.

You always lose rare animals.

Uvijek izgubite one koje su rijetke.

And therefore they're not perceived

I tako nisu gledane

as a big loss.

kao veliki gubitak.

Over time,

S vremenom

we concentrate on large animals,

se koncentriramo na velike životinje,

and in a sea that means the big fish.

a u moru to znači velike ribe.

They become rarer because we fish them.

Postanu rijetke jer ih lovimo.

Over time we have a few fish left

S vremenom nam ostane nekoliko riba

and we think this is the baseline.

i mi mislimo da je to osnova.

And the question is,

Pitanje je:

why do people accept this?

Zašto ljudi to prihvaćaju?

Well because they don't know that it was different.

Zato što ne znaju da je bilo drugačije.

And in fact, lots of people, scientists,

I zapravo, mnogo ljudi, znanstvenika,

will contest that it was really different.

osporavati će da je to potpuno drugačije.

And they will contest this

A osporavat će to zato što

because the evidence

zato što dokaz koji

presented in an earlier mode

koji je prikazan ranije,

is not in the way

nije onakav

they would like the evidence presented.

kakav bi oni htjeli da je prikazan.

For example,

Na primjer,

the anecdote that some present,

anegdota koju neki prikazuju,

as Captain so-and-so

kapetan taj-i-taj

observed lots of fish in this area

opazio je mnogo ribe u tom području,

cannot be used

znanstvenici ribarstva

or is usually not utilized by fishery scientists,

ne mogu to iskoristiti,

because it's not "scientific."

jer nije "znanstveno".

So you have a situation

Dakle, imate situaciju

where people don't know the past,

gdje ljudi ne znaju prošlost,

even though we live in literate societies,

iako živimo u pismenom društvu,

because they don't trust

jer ne vjeruju

the sources of the past.

izvorima prošlosti.

And hence, the enormous role

I stoga, ogromna je uloga

that a marine protected area can play.

koju zaštita mora može igrati.

Because with marine protected areas,

Zato što sa zaštitom područja mora,

we actually recreate the past.

mi zapravo ponovno stvaramo prošlost.

We recreate the past that people cannot conceive

Ponovno stvaramo prošlost koju ljudi ne mogu shvatiti,

because the baseline has shifted

zato što se osnova promijenila

and is extremely low.

i ekstremno je niska.

That is for people

To je za ljude

who can see a marine protected area

koji mogu vidjeti zaštićeno područje mora

and who can benefit

i koji se mogu okoristiti

from the insight that it provides,

uvidom koji pruža,

which enables them to reset their baseline.

što im omogućuje da ponovno postave svoju osnovu.

How about the people who can't do that

Što s ljudima koji to ne mogu napraviti

because they have no access --

jer nemaju pristup –

the people in the Midwest for example?

ljudi sa Srednjeg Zapada, na primjer?

There I think

Mislim da tamo

that the arts and film

to može nadomjestiti

can perhaps fill the gap,

umjetnost, film

and simulation.

i simulacija.

This is a simulation of Chesapeake Bay.

Ovo je simulacija Chesapeake zaljeva.

There were gray whales in Chesapeake Bay a long time ago --

Prije mnogo vremena u Chesapeake zaljevu postojali su sivi kitovi --

500 years ago.

prije 500 godina.

And you will have noticed that the hues and tones

I možete primijetiti da su boje i nijanse

are like "Avatar."

kao u "Avataru".

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

And if you think about "Avatar,"

Ako razmislite o "Avataru",

if you think of why people were so touched by it --

ako razmislite zašto su ljudi toliko dirnuti njime –

never mind the Pocahontas story --

zanemarite priču o Pocahontas –

why so touched by the imagery?

zašto su toliko dirnuti izgledom?

Because it evokes something

Zato što on budi nešto

that in a sense has been lost.

što je izgubljeno.

And so my recommendation,

Pa je moja preporuka,

it's the only one I will provide,

jedina koju ću dati,

is for Cameron to do "Avatar II" underwater.

da Cameron napravi "Avatar II" pod vodom.

Thank you very much.

Puno vam hvala.

(Applause)

(Pljesak)