John Graham-Cumming: The greatest machine that never was

Translator: Joseph Geni Reviewer: Morton Bast

Prevodilac: Tatjana Jevdjic Lektor: Jelena Nedjic

So the machine I'm going to talk you about

Mašinu o kojoj ću vam govoriti nazivam

is what I call the greatest machine that never was.

najvećom mašinom koja nikad nije postojala.

It was a machine that was never built,

Ona nikad nije napravljena,

and yet, it will be built.

a ipak, biće napravljena.

It was a machine that was designed

Bila je dizajnirana

long before anyone thought about computers.

mnogo pre nego što je iko pomislio na kompjutere.

If you know anything about the history of computers,

Ako znate bilo šta o istoriji kompjutera,

you will know that in the '30s and the '40s,

onda znate da su '30-ih i '40-ih

simple computers were created

napravljeni jednostavni kompjuteri

that started the computer revolution we have today,

kojima je počela današnja kompjuterska revolucija

and you would be correct,

i bili biste u pravu,

except for you'd have the wrong century.

osim što biste promašili vek.

The first computer was really designed

Prvi računar ikad napravljen je dizajniran

in the 1830s and 1840s, not the 1930s and 1940s.

1830-ih i 1840-ih, a ne 1930-ih i 1940-ih.

It was designed, and parts of it were prototyped,

Bio je dizajniran i njegovi delovi su prototip,

and the bits of it that were built are here

delovi toga su napravljeni ovde

in South Kensington.

u Južnom Kensingtonu.

That machine was built by this guy, Charles Babbage.

Tu mašinu je napravio ovaj momak, Čarls Bebidž.

Now, I have a great affinity for Charles Babbage

Imam velike simpatije prema Čarlsu Bebidžu

because his hair is always completely unkempt like this

jer mu je kosa uvek ovako raščupana

in every single picture. (Laughter)

na svakoj slici. (Smeh)

He was a very wealthy man, and a sort of,

Bio je veoma bogat, na neki način

part of the aristocracy of Britain,

deo britanske aristokratije

and on a Saturday night in Marylebone,

i subotom uveče u Merilbonu

were you part of the intelligentsia of that period,

ako ste bili intelektualac tog perioda,

you would have been invited round to his house

bili biste pozivani u njegovu kuću

for a soiree — and he invited everybody:

na soare - a on je pozivao sve:

kings, the Duke of Wellington, many, many famous people —

kraljeve, vojvodu od Velingtona, mnoge, mnoge poznate ljude -

and he would have shown you one of his mechanical machines.

i pokazivao bi neki od svojih mehaničkih uređaja.

I really miss that era, you know, where you could

Zaista mi nedostaje taj period, kada je bilo moguće

go around for a soiree and see a mechanical computer

ići na soare i videti predstavljanje

get demonstrated to you. (Laughter)

mehaničkog kompjutera. (Smeh)

But Babbage, Babbage himself was born

Ali Bebidž,

at the end of the 18th century,

rođen na kraju 18. veka je bio

and was a fairly famous mathematician.

prilično poznat matematičar.

He held the post that Newton held at Cambridge,

Imao je isto mesto koje je imao Njutn na Kembridžu,

and that was recently held by Stephen Hawking.

a koje je doskora držao Stiven Hoking.

He's less well known than either of them because

Manje je poznat od njih jer je došao do ideje

he got this idea to make mechanical computing devices

da napravi mehaničke uređaje za računanje,

and never made any of them.

ali nikad ih nije napravio.

The reason he never made any of them, he's a classic nerd.

Razlog zašto ih nije napravio je to što je bio klasični zaluđenik.

Every time he had a good idea, he'd think,

Svaki put kad bi imao ideju, pomislio bi:

"That's brilliant, I'm going to start building that one.

"To je sjajno, napraviću ovo.

I'll spend a fortune on it. I've got a better idea.

Potrošiću čitavo bogatstvo. Imam još bolju ideju.

I'm going to work on this one. (Laughter) And I'm going to do this one."

Radiću na ovoj. (Smeh) I napraviću ovu."

He did this until Sir Robert Peel, then Prime Minister,

Tako je radio sve dok ga sir Robert Pil, tadašnji premijer

basically kicked him out of Number 10 Downing Street,

nije bukvalno izbacio iz Dauning Strita 10

and kicking him out, in those days, that meant saying,

i izbacujući ga, rekao je:

"I bid you good day, sir." (Laughter)

"Želim vam lep dan, gospodine." (Smeh)

The thing he designed was this monstrosity here,

Stvar koju je dizajnirao je ovo čudovište ovde,

the analytical engine. Now, just to give you an idea of this,

analitička mašina. Da biste imali predstavu,

this is a view from above.

ovo je pogled odozgo.

Every one of these circles is a cog, a stack of cogs,

Svaki od ovih krugova je zupčanik, gomila zupčanika

and this thing is as big as a steam locomotive.

i ova stvar je velika kao parna lokomotiva.

So as I go through this talk, I want you to imagine

Želim da zamislite

this gigantic machine. We heard those wonderful sounds

ovu džinovsku mašinu. Čuli smo ove divne zvuke

of what this thing would have sounded like.

- kako bi ova stvar zvučala.

And I'm going to take you through the architecture of the machine

Želim da vas sprovedem kroz arhitekturu te mašine

— that's why it's computer architecture —

- zbog toga je to arhitektura kompjutera -

and tell you about this machine, which is a computer.

i da vam ispričam o ovoj mašini, koja je kompjuter.

So let's talk about the memory. The memory

Pričajmo o memoriji. Memorija je

is very like the memory of a computer today,

veoma nalik današnjoj memoriji,

except it was all made out of metal,

osim što je cela napravljena od metala,

stacks and stacks of cogs, 30 cogs high.

gomile i gomile zupčanika, visoka je 30 zupčanika.

Imagine a thing this high of cogs,

Zamislite stvar ovoliko visoku

hundreds and hundreds of them,

od stotina zupčanika

and they've got numbers on them.

i oni imaju brojeve na sebi.

It's a decimal machine. Everything's done in decimal.

To je decimalna mašina. Sve je decimalno.

And he thought about using binary. The problem

Pomislio je da koristi binarni kod. Problem

with using binary is that the machine would have been so

kod binarnog koda je da bi tad mašina bila toliko visoka

tall, it would have been ridiculous. As it is, it's enormous.

da bi bilo smešno. A i sad je ogromna.

So he's got memory.

Dakle, dobio je memoriju.

The memory is this bit over here.

Memorija su ovi delovi ovde.

You see it all like this.

Vidite ih ovako.

This monstrosity over here is the CPU, the chip, if you like.

Ovo čudovište je CPU, čip, ako želite.

Of course, it's this big.

Svakako, on je ovako velik.

Completely mechanical. This whole machine is mechanical.

Potpuno mehanički. Cela ova mašina je mehanička.

This is a picture of a prototype for part of the CPU

Ovo je slika prototipa za jedan deo CPU-a

which is in the Science Museum.

koji je u Naučnom muzeju.

The CPU could do the four fundamental functions of arithmetic --

Ovaj CPU može da uradi četiri osnovne aritmetičke funkcije -

so addition, multiplication, subtraction, division --

sabiranje, množenje, oduzimanje, deljenje -

which already is a bit of a feat in metal,

što je već mali podvig u metalu,

but it could also do something that a computer does

ali takođe može da uradi nešto što kompjuter radi,

and a calculator doesn't:

a kalkulator ne može:

this machine could look at its own internal memory and make a decision.

ova mašina može da proveri svoju unutrašnju memoriju i napravi odluku.

It could do the "if then" for basic programmers,

Za osnovne programere može da uradi "ako onda",

and that fundamentally made it into a computer.

što u osnovi čini kompjuter.

It could compute. It couldn't just calculate. It could do more.

Može da računa. Ne samo sračunavanje. Može više.

Now, if we look at this, and we stop for a minute,

Ako pogledamo ovo, pa stanemo na momenat

and we think about chips today, we can't

i pomislimo o današnjim čipovima, ne možemo

look inside a silicon chip. It's just so tiny.

pogledati unutar silikonskog čipa. Toliko je sićušan.

Yet if you did, you would see something

Ali ako bismo mogli, videli bismo

very, very similar to this.

nešto nalik ovom.

There's this incredible complexity in the CPU,

Postoji ova neverovatna složenost u CPU-u

and this incredible regularity in the memory.

i ova neverovatna pravilnost u memoriji.

If you've ever seen an electron microscope picture,

Ako ste ikad videli sliku kroz elektronski mikroskop,

you'll see this. This all looks the same,

videli biste ovo. Izgleda isto,

then there's this bit over here which is incredibly complicated.

tu je ovaj deo koji je neverovatno komplikovan.

All this cog wheel mechanism here is doing is what a computer does,

Ceo ovaj mehanizam od zupčanika radi ono što radi kompjuter,

but of course you need to program this thing, and of course,

ali svakako potrebno je isprogramirati tu stvar

Babbage used the technology of the day

i Bebidž je koristio tehnologiju svog vremena

and the technology that would reappear in the '50s, '60s and '70s,

koja se ponovo pojavila '50-ih, '60-ih i '70-ih,

which is punch cards. This thing over here

a to su bušene kartice. Ovo ovde

is one of three punch card readers in here,

je jedan od tri čitača kartica

and this is a program in the Science Museum, just

i ovo je program u Naučnom muzeju, ne tako daleko odavde,

not far from here, created by Charles Babbage,

koji je napravio Čarls Bebidž,

that is sitting there — you can go see it —

koji čeka tamo - možete ga videti -

waiting for the machine to be built.

kako čeka da naprave mašinu.

And there's not just one of these, there's many of them.

Tamo je ne samo jedna od ovih, već mnoge.

He prepared programs anticipating this would happen.

Pripremio je programe, očekujući da će se to desiti.

Now, the reason they used punch cards was that Jacquard,

Koristili su bušene kartice jer je Žakard

in France, had created the Jacquard loom,

u Francuskoj napravio Žakardov razboj

which was weaving these incredible patterns controlled by punch cards,

koji je tkao ove neverovatne uzorke, koje kontrolišu bušene kartice,

so he was just repurposing the technology of the day,

pa je samo menjao namenu tehnologije tog vremena

and like everything else he did, he's using the technology

i kao i sve ostalo, on je koristio tehnologiju

of his era, so 1830s, 1840s, 1850s, cogs, steam,

svog vremena 1830-ih, 1840-ih, 1850-ih, zupčanike, paru,

mechanical devices. Ironically, born the same year

mehaničke uređaje. Ironično, iste godine

as Charles Babbage was Michael Faraday,

kad i Čarls Bebidž, rodio se i Majkl Faradej,

who would completely revolutionize everything

koji će napraviti revoluciju svega

with the dynamo, transformers, all these sorts of things.

sa dinamom, transformatorima i takvim stvarima.

Babbage, of course, wanted to use proven technology,

Bebidž je želeo da koristi proverenu tehnologiju,

so steam and things.

paru i slično.

Now, he needed accessories.

Bila su mu potrebna pomoćna sredstva,

Obviously, you've got a computer now.

Očigledno, sada imate kompjuter.

You've got punch cards, a CPU and memory.

Imate bušene kartice, CPU i memoriju.

You need accessories you're going to come with.

Potrebna su vam pomoćna sredstva uz to.

You're not just going to have that,

Nećete samo to imati.

So, first of all, you had sound. You had a bell,

Prvo, imate zvuk. Imali ste zvono,

so if anything went wrong — (Laughter) —

pa ako je bilo šta išlo loše - (Smeh) -

or the machine needed the attendant to come to it,

ili je mašini bilo potrebno da neko asistira,

there was a bell it could ring. (Laughter)

postojalo je zvonce koje je moglo da zazvoni. (Smeh)

And there's actually an instruction on the punch card

To je u stvari bila instrukcija na bušenoj kartici

which says "Ring the bell." So you can imagine this "Ting!"

koja je govorila "zazvoni". Možete da zamislite ovo "ting!"

You know, just stop for a moment, imagine all those noises,

Zamislite, zastanite, zamislite sve ove zvuke,

this thing, "Click, clack click click click,"

ove: "Klik, klak, klik klik klik",

steam engine, "Ding," right? (Laughter)

parnu mašinu: "Ding", zar ne? (Smeh)

You also need a printer, obviously, and everyone needs a printer.

Potreban vam je štampač, očigledno svakom je potreban štampač.

This is actually a picture of the printing mechanism for

Ovo je u stvari slika mehanizma za štampu

another machine of his, called the Difference Engine No. 2,

za još jednu njegovu mašinu, koja se zove diferencijalna mašina br.2,

which he never built, but which the Science Museum

koja nikad nije napravljena, ali koju je Naučni muzej

did build in the '80s and '90s.

napravio '80-ih i '90-ih.

It's completely mechanical, again, a printer.

To je potpuno mehanički štampač.

It prints just numbers, because he was obsessed with numbers,

Štampa samo brojeve jer je on bio opsednut brojevima,

but it does print onto paper, and it even does word wrapping,

štampa ih na papir i čak pravi prelom,

so if you get to the end of the line, it goes around like that.

tako da kad dođete do kraja reda, ide ovako.

You also need graphics, right?

Takođe vam je potrebna grafika, zar ne?

I mean, if you're going to do anything with graphics,

Mislim, ako želite bilo šta sa grafikom,

so he said, "Well, I need a plotter. I've got a big piece of paper

rekao je: "Dakle, potreban mi je ploter. Imam ogroman papir

and an ink pen and I'll make it plot."

i pero i napraviću plot."

So he designed a plotter as well,

Tako da je dizajnirao i ploter.

and, you know, at that point, I think he got pretty much

Znate, tog momenta, mislim da je dobio prilično

a pretty good machine.

dobru mašinu.

Along comes this woman, Ada Lovelace.

Tu se pojavljuje ova žena, Ada Lavlejs.

Now, imagine these soirees, all these great and good comes along.

Zamislite ove soaree, sve što je sjajno i dobro zajedno dolazi.

This lady is the daughter of the mad, bad

Ova dama je kćerka ludog, lošeg

and dangerous-to-know Lord Byron,

i opasnog lorda Bajrona,

and her mother, being a bit worried that she might have

a njena majka je bila pomalo zabrinuta da može biti

inherited some of Lord Byron's madness and badness,

da je nasledila ponešto od lord Bajronovog ludila i zloće,

thought, "I know the solution: Mathematics is the solution.

pomislila je: "Znam rešenje: matematika je rešenje.

We'll teach her mathematics. That'll calm her down."

Učiće matematiku. To će je smiriti."

(Laughter) Because of course,

(Smeh) Jer, kao što se zna

there's never been a mathematician that's gone crazy,

nikad nije bilo matematičara koji je poludeo,

so, you know, that'll be fine. (Laughter)

pa će to biti dobro. (Smeh)

Everything'll be fine. So she's got this mathematical training,

Sve će biti dobro. Dobila je matematičku obuku

and she goes to one of these soirees with her mother,

i zajedno je sa majkom na nekom od tih soarea,

and Charles Babbage, you know, gets out his machine.

Čarls Bebidž vadi jednu od svojih mašina.

The Duke of Wellington is there, you know,

Vojvoda od Velingtona je tu, znate

get out the machine, obviously demonstrates it,

on pokazuje mašinu

and she gets it. She's the only person in his lifetime, really,

i ona je shvata. Ona je jedina osoba za vreme njegovog života

who said, "I understand what this does,

koja je rekla: "Razumem šta to radi

and I understand the future of this machine."

i shvatam budućnost te mašine".

And we owe to her an enormous amount because we know

Mnogo joj dugujemo, jer znamo

a lot about the machine that Babbage was intending to build

mnogo o mašini koju je Bebidž nameravao da napravi,

because of her.

upravo zbog nje.

Now, some people call her the first programmer.

Neki ljudi je nazivaju prvim programerom.

This is actually from one of -- the paper that she translated.

To je zapravo zbog jednog rada koji je prevela.

This is a program written in a particular style.

To je program napisan posebnim stilom.

It's not, historically, totally accurate that she's the first programmer,

Nije istorijski, potpuno tačno da je ona prvi programer,

and actually, she did something more amazing.

ona je uradila nešto još više.

Rather than just being a programmer,

Pre nego da je programer,

she saw something that Babbage didn't.

videla je nešto što Bebidž nije.

Babbage was totally obsessed with mathematics.

Bebidž je potpuno bio opsednut matematikom.

He was building a machine to do mathematics,

Pravio je mašinu koja će raditi matematiku,

and Lovelace said, "You could do more than mathematics

a Lavlejs je rekla: "Možeš da uradiš mnogo više od matematike

on this machine." And just as you do,

na ovoj mašini." I kao svi,

everyone in this room already's got a computer on them

svi u ovoj prostoriji već imaju kompjuter,

right now, because they've got a phone.

svi imaju telefon.

If you go into that phone, every single thing in that phone

Ako pogledate u taj telefon, svaka stvar u njemu

or computer or any other computing device

ili kompjuteru ili bilo kom drugom uređaju za računanje

is mathematics. It's all numbers at the bottom.

je matematika. Na kraju sve se svodi na brojeve.

Whether it's video or text or music or voice, it's all numbers,

Bez obzira da li je video ili tekst ili muzika ili glas, sve su to brojevi

it's all, underlying it, mathematical functions happening,

ispod svega se dešavaju matematičke funkcije

and Lovelace said, "Just because you're doing

i Lavlejs je rekla: "Samo zbog toga što

mathematical functions and symbols

obavlja matematičke funkcije i simbole,

doesn't mean these things can't represent

ne znači da ove stvari ne mogu da predstavljaju

other things in the real world, such as music."

druge stvari u realnosti, kao muziku."

This was a huge leap, because Babbage is there saying,

Ovo je bio ogroman iskorak, jer Bebidž je govorio:

"We could compute these amazing functions and print out

"Možemo sračunati ove neverovatne funkcije i odštampati

tables of numbers and draw graphs," — (Laughter) —

tabele i brojeve i iscrtati grafikone", - (Smeh) -

and Lovelace is there and she says, "Look,

i Lavlejs na to: "Pogledaj,

this thing could even compose music if you

ova stvar može čak da komponuje muziku, ako joj

told it a representation of music numerically."

daš prezentaciju muzike u brojevima."

So this is what I call Lovelace's Leap.

To je ono što ja nazivam Lavlejs iskorak.

When you say she's a programmer, she did do some,

Kada kažete da je programerka, ona je napravila neke programe,

but the real thing is to have said the future is going to be

ali stvarnost je da će budućnost biti

much, much more than this.

mnogo, mnogo više od ovog.

Now, a hundred years later, this guy comes along,

Sto godina kasnije, pojavljuje se ovaj momak,

Alan Turing, and in 1936, and invents the computer all over again.

Alan Turing i 1936. smišlja kompjuter nanovo.

Now, of course, Babbage's machine was entirely mechanical.

Svakako, Bebidževa mašina je potpuno mehanička.

Turing's machine was entirely theoretical.

Turingova mašina je potpuno teorijska.

Both of these guys were coming from a mathematical perspective,

Oba ova momka su došla sa matematičkom perspektivom,

but Turing told us something very important.

ali Turing nam je rekao nešto veoma značajno.

He laid down the mathematical foundations

Postavio je osnove nauke o kompjuterima

for computer science, and said,

i rekao je:

"It doesn't matter how you make a computer."

"Nije važno kako pravite kompjuter."

It doesn't matter if your computer's mechanical,

Nije važno da li je kompjuter mehanički,

like Babbage's was, or electronic, like computers are today,

kao Bebidžev ili elektronski, kao današnji računari

or perhaps in the future, cells, or, again,

ili verovatno u budućnosti, mobilni ili ponovo

mechanical again, once we get into nanotechnology.

mehanički, kada uđemo u nanotehnologiju.

We could go back to Babbage's machine

Ponovo možemo da se vratimo Bebidževoj mašini

and just make it tiny. All those things are computers.

i napravimo je sićušnom. Sve te stvari su kompjuteri.

There is in a sense a computing essence.

Tu je taj osećaj suštine kompjutera.

This is called the Church–Turing thesis.

Naziva se Čurč-Turingova teza.

And so suddenly, you get this link where you say

Iznenada dobijate ovu vezu koja kaže da je

this thing Babbage had built really was a computer.

stvar koju je Bebidž napravio, zaista kompjuter.

In fact, it was capable of doing everything we do today

U stvari, mogao je da uradi sve što danas radimo

with computers, only really slowly. (Laughter)

sa kompjuterima, samo veoma sporo. (Smeh)

To give you an idea of how slowly,

Da bih vam predočio kako sporo,

it had about 1k of memory.

imao je oko 1k memorije.

It used punch cards, which were being fed in,

Koristio je bušene kartice, koje su se ubacivale

and it ran about 10,000 times slower the first ZX81.

i išao je oko 10 000 puta sporije nego prvi ZX81.

It did have a RAM pack.

Imao je radnu memoriju.

You could add on a lot of extra memory if you wanted to.

Ako ste hteli, mogli ste dodati dodatnu memoriju.

(Laughter) So, where does that bring us today?

(Smeh) Dakle, gde nas to dovodi?

So there are plans.

Postoje planovi.

Over in Swindon, the Science Museum archives,

U Svindonu, u arhivi Naučnog muzeja,

there are hundreds of plans and thousands of pages

postoje stotine planova i hiljade strana

of notes written by Charles Babbage about this analytical engine.

zapisa Čarlsa Bebidža o ovoj analitičkoj mašini.

One of those is a set of plans that we call Plan 28,

Jedan od njih je set planova, koje nazivamo Plan 28

and that is also the name of a charity that I started

i to je takođe naziv dobrotvorne ustanove koju sam osnovao

with Doron Swade, who was the curator of computing

sa Doronom Svejdom, koji je kustos računarstva

at the Science Museum, and also the person who drove

u Naučnom muzeju i takođe osoba koja

the project to build a difference engine,

vodi ceo projekat izgradnje diferencijalnpg uređaja

and our plan is to build it.

i naš plan je da ga napravimo.

Here in South Kensington, we will build the analytical engine.

Ovde u Južnom Kensingtonu, napravićemo analitičku mašinu.

The project has a number of parts to it.

Projekat ima brojne delove.

One was the scanning of Babbage's archive.

Jedan od njih je skeniranje Bebidževe arhive.

That's been done. The second is now the study

To je urađeno. Drugi deo je proučavanje

of all of those plans to determine what to build.

svih planova da bismo odredili šta da pravimo.

The third part is a computer simulation of that machine,

Treći deo je kompjuterska simulacija te mašine

and the last part is to physically build it at the Science Museum.

i poslednji deo je fizička izgradnja u Naučnom muzeju.

When it's built, you'll finally be able to understand how a computer works,

Kada je naparavimo, konačno možete razumeti kako kompjuter radi

because rather than having a tiny chip in front of you,

jer ćete ispred sebe imati umesto sićušnog čipa

you've got to look at this humongous thing and say, "Ah,

ovu ogromnu stvar i reći: "Ah,

I see the memory operating, I see the CPU operating,

vidim memoriju kako radi, CPU u radu,

I hear it operating. I probably smell it operating." (Laughter)

čujem da radi. Verovatno mogu da ga omirišem kako radi". (Smeh)

But in between that we're going to do a simulation.

A u međuvremenu, uradićemo simulaciju.

Babbage himself wrote, he said,

Bebidž je zapisao,

as soon as the analytical engine exists,

dok god postoji analitički uređaj,

it will surely guide the future course of science.

sigurno će voditi budući pravac nauke.

Of course, he never built it, because he was always fiddling

Svakako, nikad ga nije napravio, jer je uvek petljao

with new plans, but when it did get built, of course,

sa novim planovima, ali kada je napravljen,

in the 1940s, everything changed.

1940-ih sve se promenilo.

Now, I'll just give you a little taste of what it looks like

Daću vam samo mali uvid u to kako izgleda

in motion with a video which shows

u pokretu, pomoću video snimka koji pokazuje

just one part of the CPU mechanism working.

samo jedan deo CPU mehanizma u radu.

So this is just three sets of cogs,

Ovo su samo tri seta zupčanika

and it's going to add. This is the adding mechanism

i dodaće se još. Ovo je mehanizam za dodavanje

in action, so you imagine this gigantic machine.

u akciji, pa možete da zamislite ovu gigantsku mašinu.

So, give me five years.

Dajte mi pet godina.

Before the 2030s happen, we'll have it.

Pre 2030-ih će se desiti, imaćemo je.

Thank you very much. (Applause)

Hvala vam mnogo. (Aplauz)