John Graham-Cumming: The greatest machine that never was

Translator: Joseph Geni Reviewer: Morton Bast

譯者: Yuguo Zhang 審譯者: Yun Liu

So the machine I'm going to talk you about

我今天要向大家介紹的這個機器

is what I call the greatest machine that never was.

被稱為有史以來最偉大的機器

It was a machine that was never built,

雖然目前它還沒被真的創造出來

and yet, it will be built.

但它以後一定會被發明出來的

It was a machine that was designed

這個機器在任何人發明電腦之前

long before anyone thought about computers.

就被設計出來了

If you know anything about the history of computers,

如果你對電腦的歷史有一些了解

you will know that in the '30s and the '40s,

你就會知道，在30和40年代的時候

simple computers were created

一些電腦的雛型被創造出來

that started the computer revolution we have today,

接著誕生了我們今日的電腦革命

and you would be correct,

你是對的

except for you'd have the wrong century.

不過你把發生的世紀搞錯了

The first computer was really designed

其實，第一台電腦是在19世紀的

in the 1830s and 1840s, not the 1930s and 1940s.

30和40年代，而不是20世紀的時發明的

It was designed, and parts of it were prototyped,

有人設計出這個機器，並做出部分原型

and the bits of it that were built are here

有部分就是在這裡製造的

in South Kensington.

也就是肯辛頓南部

That machine was built by this guy, Charles Babbage.

這個機器是被Charles Babbage這個人做出來的

Now, I have a great affinity for Charles Babbage

我對Charles Babbage很感興趣

because his hair is always completely unkempt like this

因為他所有照片裡的頭髮都亂七八糟的

in every single picture. (Laughter)

像這樣，每張都是 (笑聲)

He was a very wealthy man, and a sort of,

他非常的富有

part of the aristocracy of Britain,

而且可以說是英國的貴族成員

and on a Saturday night in Marylebone,

在馬斯伯恩 (倫敦市區) 的一個週六夜晚

were you part of the intelligentsia of that period,

如果你是一位當代的知識分子

you would have been invited round to his house

你就會被邀請到他家參加晚會

for a soiree — and he invited everybody:

他邀請了每個人--

kings, the Duke of Wellington, many, many famous people —

國王、惠靈頓的公爵、很多有名的人---

and he would have shown you one of his mechanical machines.

然後他會向你們展示他許多機械中的一個

I really miss that era, you know, where you could

我非常想念那個時代，你知道的，

go around for a soiree and see a mechanical computer

可以去參加晚會，然後看一個

get demonstrated to you. (Laughter)

機械電腦在你面前被展示 (笑聲)

But Babbage, Babbage himself was born

不過Babbage是在

at the end of the 18th century,

18世紀末出生的

and was a fairly famous mathematician.

而且還是個有名的數學家

He held the post that Newton held at Cambridge,

他主持了當初牛頓在劍橋主持的盛會

and that was recently held by Stephen Hawking.

這個盛會最近由史蒂芬霍金主持

He's less well known than either of them because

他沒這些人那麼有名，因為

he got this idea to make mechanical computing devices

他只有創造這台機器的想法

and never made any of them.

但卻從未真正創造出來

The reason he never made any of them, he's a classic nerd.

原因就是，他是個標準的書呆子

Every time he had a good idea, he'd think,

每次他有很好的想法時

"That's brilliant, I'm going to start building that one.

他就會想：「太棒了，我要去把它做出來。

I'll spend a fortune on it. I've got a better idea.

我得投入一些錢... 阿，我又有個更好的主意

I'm going to work on this one. (Laughter) And I'm going to do this one."

那我來做這個吧 (笑聲) 然後我還要...」

He did this until Sir Robert Peel, then Prime Minister,

他一直重複這些想法，直到首相Sir Robert Peel

basically kicked him out of Number 10 Downing Street,

把他從唐寧街10號 (首相官邸) 趕出去

and kicking him out, in those days, that meant saying,

當時，從那裏被趕出去就意會著

"I bid you good day, sir." (Laughter)

「先生，祝您有個愉快的一天。」 (笑聲)

The thing he designed was this monstrosity here,

他所設計的就是這個巨大的東西：分析引擎。

the analytical engine. Now, just to give you an idea of this,

現在，為了讓你有個初步的了解

this is a view from above.

這是由上往下的俯視圖

Every one of these circles is a cog, a stack of cogs,

每個圈圈都是一個齒輪，一堆齒輪

and this thing is as big as a steam locomotive.

而這東西就跟一個蒸汽火車頭一樣大

So as I go through this talk, I want you to imagine

所以在我演講的過程中，我希望你能想像一下

this gigantic machine. We heard those wonderful sounds

這個巨大的機器。我們可以想像我們正聽著

of what this thing would have sounded like.

這個機器有可能發出的美妙聲音

And I'm going to take you through the architecture of the machine

現在，我將為各位介紹這個機器的搆造

— that's why it's computer architecture —

這就是為什麼「電腦系統搆造 (computer architechture)」是用英文中建築物 (architecture) 這個單字

and tell you about this machine, which is a computer.

並為大家介紹這台機器，也就是電腦

So let's talk about the memory. The memory

首先，讓我們聊聊記憶體。

is very like the memory of a computer today,

這機器的記憶體就跟現在電腦的記憶體很像

except it was all made out of metal,

只不過它當時是用金屬打造成的

stacks and stacks of cogs, 30 cogs high.

一堆齒輪 -- 總共有30個齒輪那麼高

Imagine a thing this high of cogs,

想像一下這些齒輪的高度

hundreds and hundreds of them,

成千上百個的齒輪

and they've got numbers on them.

每個齒輪上都有編號

It's a decimal machine. Everything's done in decimal.

這個機器是十進位制的。所有東西都是十進位制

And he thought about using binary. The problem

他曾想過用二進位制，不過問題是

with using binary is that the machine would have been so

如果用二進位制，機器就會變得過高

tall, it would have been ridiculous. As it is, it's enormous.

看起來很荒謬，而且極其巨大

So he's got memory.

它也有記憶體

The memory is this bit over here.

記憶體就是這裡的位元

You see it all like this.

它們長這個樣子

This monstrosity over here is the CPU, the chip, if you like.

這個巨大的東西就是CPU，或稱為晶片

Of course, it's this big.

沒錯，就是這麼大

Completely mechanical. This whole machine is mechanical.

整個機器完全都是機械化

This is a picture of a prototype for part of the CPU

這是一張局部的CPU原型照片

which is in the Science Museum.

目前被存放在科學博物館

The CPU could do the four fundamental functions of arithmetic --

CPU可以做4種最基本的算數

so addition, multiplication, subtraction, division --

加、減、乘、除

which already is a bit of a feat in metal,

這對金屬來說已經很厲害了

but it could also do something that a computer does

不過，它也可以做一些電腦可以、

and a calculator doesn't:

但計算機做不了的事情

this machine could look at its own internal memory and make a decision.

這個機器可以透過本身的記憶體做出決定

It could do the "if then" for basic programmers,

它可以幫基本編程做假設

and that fundamentally made it into a computer.

而擁有這些功能，表示它就是一台電腦

It could compute. It couldn't just calculate. It could do more.

它可以計算、不光是算數，而且還可以做更多

Now, if we look at this, and we stop for a minute,

現在，如果我們看著它，停下來想想

and we think about chips today, we can't

我們今天的晶片，,我們根本沒辦法看見

look inside a silicon chip. It's just so tiny.

那些矽晶片的內部構造，它們實在太小了

Yet if you did, you would see something

然而，如果你真的仔細研究它，你可以看到

very, very similar to this.

跟這個非常相似的東西

There's this incredible complexity in the CPU,

這就是CPU裡令人屏息的複雜構造

and this incredible regularity in the memory.

以及記憶體中不可思議的規律性

If you've ever seen an electron microscope picture,

如果你曾經看過一個電子顯微鏡照片

you'll see this. This all looks the same,

你就會看到這個，它們看起來完全一樣

then there's this bit over here which is incredibly complicated.

然後這裡會有些十分複雜的位元

All this cog wheel mechanism here is doing is what a computer does,

這裡所有的齒輪都在做一些電腦能做的事情

but of course you need to program this thing, and of course,

當然，你得幫它寫程式

Babbage used the technology of the day

而 Babbage 用了和當今一樣的方法

and the technology that would reappear in the '50s, '60s and '70s,

而這個方法在50,60,70年代會再次出現

which is punch cards. This thing over here

也就是：打孔。這個東西

is one of three punch card readers in here,

就是三個讀卡機的其中一個

and this is a program in the Science Museum, just

而這是一個程式，目前存放在科學博物館

not far from here, created by Charles Babbage,

離這兒不遠，是由 Charles Babbage 建造的

that is sitting there — you can go see it —

它就在那裡，你可以去看看

waiting for the machine to be built.

它等待著人們把機器創造出來

And there's not just one of these, there's many of them.

事實上，這機器不僅僅只有一台，而是有很多

He prepared programs anticipating this would happen.

他設計了一些程式，認為這個可以實現

Now, the reason they used punch cards was that Jacquard,

之所以使用打孔卡片的原因是

in France, had created the Jacquard loom,

法國的 Jacquard 創造了織布機

which was weaving these incredible patterns controlled by punch cards,

而織布機可以織出這些打孔卡片上不可思議的圖案

so he was just repurposing the technology of the day,

所以他當時是在為今天的科技做準備

and like everything else he did, he's using the technology

就跟所有他做的其他事情一樣，他使用的

of his era, so 1830s, 1840s, 1850s, cogs, steam,

是他當時19世紀30,40,50年代的科技：齒輪、蒸汽

mechanical devices. Ironically, born the same year

機器。很諷刺的是，跟 Charles Babbage

as Charles Babbage was Michael Faraday,

同一年出生的有麥克法拉第

who would completely revolutionize everything

那個用發電機、變壓器、和其他玩意兒

with the dynamo, transformers, all these sorts of things.

改變了一切的那個傢伙

Babbage, of course, wanted to use proven technology,

Babbage 想要用當時現存的科技

so steam and things.

也就是就是蒸汽之類的東西

Now, he needed accessories.

現在，他需要一些配件

Obviously, you've got a computer now.

顯然電腦的雛型已經出來了

You've got punch cards, a CPU and memory.

你有很多卡片、CPU、以及記憶體

You need accessories you're going to come with.

但你還需要一些其他的配件

You're not just going to have that,

但是你找不到

So, first of all, you had sound. You had a bell,

所以呢，首先你要有發出聲音的東西，像是鈴鐺

so if anything went wrong — (Laughter) —

如果任何事情搞砸了的話---- (笑聲)

or the machine needed the attendant to come to it,

或者這機器需要一個人員陪同

there was a bell it could ring. (Laughter)

你就可以搖鈴鐺 (笑聲)

And there's actually an instruction on the punch card

在打孔卡片上其實有個說明

which says "Ring the bell." So you can imagine this "Ting!"

寫著：「搖鈴鐺」。想像那「叮」的一聲

You know, just stop for a moment, imagine all those noises,

讓我們暫停一下，想像這些聲音

this thing, "Click, clack click click click,"

這台機器發出「喀喀喀喀」的聲音

steam engine, "Ding," right? (Laughter)

或是蒸汽引擎的聲音「叮」。沒錯吧？(笑聲)

You also need a printer, obviously, and everyone needs a printer.

很顯然，你還需要一個印表機，每個人都需要

This is actually a picture of the printing mechanism for

這個圖片是關於另外一個機器的列印原理

another machine of his, called the Difference Engine No. 2,

它叫做「不同的2號引擎」

which he never built, but which the Science Museum

他沒有把這個機器做出來，不過科學博物館

did build in the '80s and '90s.

在80和90年代真的做出來了

It's completely mechanical, again, a printer.

它是個完全機械性的印表機

It prints just numbers, because he was obsessed with numbers,

它只能印數字，因為他對數字很著迷

but it does print onto paper, and it even does word wrapping,

它確實可印在紙上，甚至可以自動換行

so if you get to the end of the line, it goes around like that.

所以當你打到一行結束，它就可以變成這樣

You also need graphics, right?

你還需要圖片，對吧？

I mean, if you're going to do anything with graphics,

就是說，當你得處理一些關於圖片的事

so he said, "Well, I need a plotter. I've got a big piece of paper

因此他說：「嗯，我需要個繪圖機。我有一大張紙

and an ink pen and I'll make it plot."

還有鋼筆，這樣我就可以讓它作圖了。」

So he designed a plotter as well,

因此他也設計了一個繪圖機

and, you know, at that point, I think he got pretty much

你知道的，以那個時候的發展來說

a pretty good machine.

我認為他已經做出一個很好的機器了

Along comes this woman, Ada Lovelace.

接下來則要介紹這位女士，Ada Lovelace

Now, imagine these soirees, all these great and good comes along.

現在，想像一下這些晚會，聚集了有名利的人們

This lady is the daughter of the mad, bad

而這位女士的父親就是瘋狂、陰險

and dangerous-to-know Lord Byron,

、又危險的拜倫王

and her mother, being a bit worried that she might have

她的母親擔心她會繼承拜倫王

inherited some of Lord Byron's madness and badness,

那些又古怪又壞的行為

thought, "I know the solution: Mathematics is the solution.

於是就想：「我知道怎麼解決了：數學。

We'll teach her mathematics. That'll calm her down."

我們會教她數學，這樣她就會安靜下來了。」

(Laughter) Because of course,

(笑聲) 原因是因為

there's never been a mathematician that's gone crazy,

從來沒有數學家最後會瘋掉

so, you know, that'll be fine. (Laughter)

所以，嗯，這個主意還不錯 (笑聲)

Everything'll be fine. So she's got this mathematical training,

一切不會有問題。所以她開始學習數學

and she goes to one of these soirees with her mother,

並跟她母親去了一個這樣的晚會

and Charles Babbage, you know, gets out his machine.

Charles Babbage ，你知道的，拿出他的機器

The Duke of Wellington is there, you know,

威靈頓的公爵也在場

get out the machine, obviously demonstrates it,

Charles 展示了他的機器

and she gets it. She's the only person in his lifetime, really,

而 Ada Lovelace 就理解了。她是他生命中

who said, "I understand what this does,

唯一一個說出：「我知道這個機器的功用

and I understand the future of this machine."

也理解這個機器的未來會怎麼樣」的人。

And we owe to her an enormous amount because we know

她對我們帮助非常大，因為我們之所以

a lot about the machine that Babbage was intending to build

能知道許多 Babbage 設計的機器

because of her.

都歸功於她

Now, some people call her the first programmer.

現在有些人稱她叫第一位程式設計者

This is actually from one of -- the paper that she translated.

這其實是從她當初翻譯的一篇論文中節錄出來的

This is a program written in a particular style.

這是一個以特定格式寫下的程式

It's not, historically, totally accurate that she's the first programmer,

不過，正確來說她並不是真正的第一位程式設計者

and actually, she did something more amazing.

而且事實上，她做了更驚人的事

Rather than just being a programmer,

不僅僅只是寫程式

she saw something that Babbage didn't.

她看到了一些 Babbage 沒看到的東西

Babbage was totally obsessed with mathematics.

因為 Babbage 對數學太著迷了

He was building a machine to do mathematics,

他想做一個能算數學的機器

and Lovelace said, "You could do more than mathematics

Lavelace 說：「這台機器

on this machine." And just as you do,

不只可以算數。」就像在座的各位一樣

everyone in this room already's got a computer on them

大家此刻身上都有一台電腦

right now, because they've got a phone.

也就是手機

If you go into that phone, every single thing in that phone

如果你打開你的手機，每個手機

or computer or any other computing device

、電腦、或任何其他計算設備

is mathematics. It's all numbers at the bottom.

都是數學。運作的基礎都是數字

Whether it's video or text or music or voice, it's all numbers,

不論是影片、簡訊、音樂、或聲音，都是數字

it's all, underlying it, mathematical functions happening,

全部。數學讓這一切成為可能

and Lovelace said, "Just because you're doing

而 Lovalace 說「雖然你在使用的

mathematical functions and symbols

是數學函數和數學符號

doesn't mean these things can't represent

但這並不表示這些東西就不能

other things in the real world, such as music."

代表其他東西，例如音樂」

This was a huge leap, because Babbage is there saying,

這是個非常大的進展，因為 Babbage 還在說著

"We could compute these amazing functions and print out

「我們可以繪出這些神奇的函數、

tables of numbers and draw graphs," — (Laughter) —

印出表格和數字，然後畫圖！」(笑聲)

and Lovelace is there and she says, "Look,

Lovalce 則說：「你看，

this thing could even compose music if you

這機器可以做出曲子，

told it a representation of music numerically."

只要你給它用來代表音樂的數字代號

So this is what I call Lovelace's Leap.

這就是我所說的 Loavelace 大躍進

When you say she's a programmer, she did do some,

若你稱她為程式設計者，她的確是

but the real thing is to have said the future is going to be

不過真正重要的是她看見了這機器

much, much more than this.

在未來能有更多可能性

Now, a hundred years later, this guy comes along,

而一百多年後，某個人出現了

Alan Turing, and in 1936, and invents the computer all over again.

Alan Turing 在1936年重新發明了電腦

Now, of course, Babbage's machine was entirely mechanical.

當然，Babbage的機器是純機械的

Turing's machine was entirely theoretical.

Turing 的機器是純理論的

Both of these guys were coming from a mathematical perspective,

這兩人都是從數學的觀點來思考

but Turing told us something very important.

但 Turing 告訴我們一些很重要的事情

He laid down the mathematical foundations

他奠定了數學在電腦科學

for computer science, and said,

中的基礎，說到：

"It doesn't matter how you make a computer."

「你怎麼把電腦創造出來的並不重要。」

It doesn't matter if your computer's mechanical,

你的電腦是不是像Babbage那樣是純機械的，

like Babbage's was, or electronic, like computers are today,

或者像今天這種電子的，都不重要

or perhaps in the future, cells, or, again,

也許未來的電腦是由細胞構成的

mechanical again, once we get into nanotechnology.

或者又回歸到純機械的。一旦我們使用了奈米技術

We could go back to Babbage's machine

我們可以把 Babbage 的機器變得

and just make it tiny. All those things are computers.

非常小。.所有東西都是電腦

There is in a sense a computing essence.

而在這之中，所有東西的本質都是計算

This is called the Church–Turing thesis.

這叫做 Church-Turing 理論

And so suddenly, you get this link where you say

所以突然間，你會開始聯想到，

this thing Babbage had built really was a computer.

Babbage 當年造的那東西，其實就是台電腦

In fact, it was capable of doing everything we do today

事實上，它可以做出任何我們現在

with computers, only really slowly. (Laughter)

用電腦能做的事情，只不過很慢 (笑聲)

To give you an idea of how slowly,

為了讓大家了解有多慢，以下是說明：

it had about 1k of memory.

它有1k的記憶體

It used punch cards, which were being fed in,

並且使用打孔卡，必需手動插進去

and it ran about 10,000 times slower the first ZX81.

它的速度比第一台ZX81 (家用電腦) 要慢一萬倍

It did have a RAM pack.

它確實有一個記憶體

You could add on a lot of extra memory if you wanted to.

如果你想的話，你可以擴大它的存儲

(Laughter) So, where does that bring us today?

(笑聲) 那麼，我們今天能做什麼呢?

So there are plans.

以下是計劃

Over in Swindon, the Science Museum archives,

在Swindon 科學博物館的檔案中

there are hundreds of plans and thousands of pages

有上百個計劃和 上千頁文獻

of notes written by Charles Babbage about this analytical engine.

是 Charles Babbage 寫的、關於這個分析引擎的筆記

One of those is a set of plans that we call Plan 28,

其中有一系列計畫被我們稱作計劃28

and that is also the name of a charity that I started

這也是個我與 Doron Swade 所創立的一個

with Doron Swade, who was the curator of computing

慈善機構的名字。Doron Swade 是科學博物館中

at the Science Museum, and also the person who drove

管理電腦的成員，也是起草了這個計劃

the project to build a difference engine,

要建造出一個不一樣引擎的人

and our plan is to build it.

我們的計劃就是把它做出來

Here in South Kensington, we will build the analytical engine.

就在肯辛頓南部，我們會做出這個分析引擎

The project has a number of parts to it.

這個工程分成很多部分

One was the scanning of Babbage's archive.

其中一部分就是掃描 Babbage 的文獻

That's been done. The second is now the study

這部分已經完成，而正在進行的第二部份

of all of those plans to determine what to build.

則是研讀所有計劃然後決定要建造什麼

The third part is a computer simulation of that machine,

第三部分是一個模擬那機器的電腦糢擬系統

and the last part is to physically build it at the Science Museum.

最後一部份，就是在博物館中把機器做出來

When it's built, you'll finally be able to understand how a computer works,

當它完成時，你就會真正理解電腦是怎麼工作的

because rather than having a tiny chip in front of you,

因為你就不再只是盯著面前一個極小的晶片

you've got to look at this humongous thing and say, "Ah,

而是可以看看這個巨大的東西然後說：

I see the memory operating, I see the CPU operating,

「阿，我看到記憶體在運作、CPU在運作、

I hear it operating. I probably smell it operating." (Laughter)

我聽見它運作的聲響。我說不定還聞的到！」 (笑聲)

But in between that we're going to do a simulation.

但在這之間呢，我們會做一個糢擬

Babbage himself wrote, he said,

Babbage 自己寫到：

as soon as the analytical engine exists,

一旦分析引擎真的被製造出來後

it will surely guide the future course of science.

它一定會對於未來的科學有所帮助

Of course, he never built it, because he was always fiddling

當然，他從沒有成功做出來，因為他總是

with new plans, but when it did get built, of course,

在他的新計劃上浪費時間，但當這東西真的

in the 1940s, everything changed.

在1940年代被做出來時，一切都改變了

Now, I'll just give you a little taste of what it looks like

現在，我讓各位稍微看看它

in motion with a video which shows

運作的樣子，這影片會展示出

just one part of the CPU mechanism working.

局部的CPU運作的機械原理

So this is just three sets of cogs,

這是三組齒輪

and it's going to add. This is the adding mechanism

它準備做加法。這是加法的運作原理

in action, so you imagine this gigantic machine.

如此一來，你可以想像這個巨大的機器

So, give me five years.

因此呢，給我五年時間

Before the 2030s happen, we'll have it.

在2030之前，我們將會做出這個機器

Thank you very much. (Applause)

謝謝各位。 (鼓掌)