The unexpected benefit of celebrating failure | Astro Teller

Prevodilac: Milenka Okuka Lektor: Mile Živković

In 1962 at Rice University,

Godine 1962. na univerzitetu Rajs

JFK told the country about a dream he had,

Džon F. Kenedi je saopštio državi svoj san,

a dream to put a person on the moon by the end of the decade.

san da će da smeste osobu na mesec do kraja decenije.

The eponymous moonshot.

Takozvani pohod na mesec.

No one knew if it was possible to do

Niko nije znao da li je to moguće izvesti,

but he made sure a plan was put in place to do it if it was possible.

ali se postarao da osmisli plan kako bi to ostvario, ukoliko je moguće.

That's how great dreams are.

Takvi su veliki snovi.

Great dreams aren't just visions,

Veliki snovi nisu puke vizije,

they're visions coupled to strategies for making them real.

to su vizije uparene sa strategijama kako bi bili ostvareni.

I have the incredible good fortune to work at a moonshot factory.

Imam neverovatnu sreću da radim u fabrici nalik pohodu na mesec.

At X -- formerly called Google X --

U Iksu - koji se nekad zvao Gugl Iks -

you'll find an aerospace engineer working alongside a fashion designer

naći ćete vazdušno-kosmičkog inženjera kako radi sa modnim dizajnerom

and former military ops commanders brainstorming with laser experts.

i bivše komandante vojnih operacija kako smišljaju ideje sa laserskim ekspertima.

These inventors, engineers and makers are dreaming up technologies

Ti izumitelji, inženjeri i stvaraoci maštaju o tehnologijama

that we hope can make the world a wonderful place.

za koje se nadamo da će svet da pretvore u čarobno mesto.

We use the word "moonshots" to remind us to keep our visions big --

Koristimo izraz "pohod na mesec" da bi naše vizije bile velike -

to keep dreaming.

da bi nastavili da maštamo.

And we use the word "factory" to remind ourselves

A koristimo reč "fabrika" kao podsetnik

that we want to have concrete visions --

da želimo da imamo konkretne vizije -

concrete plans to make them real.

konkretne planove koje ćemo da realizujemo.

Here's our moonshot blueprint.

Ovo je shema našeg pohoda na mesec.

Number one:

Pod jedan:

we want to find a huge problem in the world

želimo da orktijemo ogroman problem u svetu

that affects many millions of people.

koji pogađa milione ljudi.

Number two:

Pod dva:

we want to find or propose a radical solution for solving that problem.

želimo da otkrijemo ili da predložimo radikalno rešenje za taj problem.

And then number three:

A zatim pod tri:

there has to be some reason to believe

mora da postoji razlog da verujemo

that the technology for such a radical solution

da tehnologiju za tako radikalno rešenje

could actually be built.

zaista možemo sagraditi.

But I have a secret for you.

Ali otkriću vam tajnu.

The moonshot factory is a messy place.

Fabrika pohodovanja na mesec je neuredno mesto.

But rather than avoid the mess,

Ali umesto da izbegavamo nered

pretend it's not there,

ili se pretvaramo da ne postoji,

we've tried to make that our strength.

pokušali smo to da pretvorimo u prednost.

We spend most of our time breaking things

Provodimo toliko vremena uništavajući stvari

and trying to prove that we're wrong.

i pokušavajući da dokažemo da nismo u pravu.

That's it, that's the secret.

To je to, to je tajna.

Run at all the hardest parts of the problem first.

Prvo se bavimo najtežim delovima problema.

Get excited and cheer,

Uzbuđeno kličemo:

"Hey! How are we going to kill our project today?"

"Hej! Kako ćemo danas da uništimo projekat?"

We've got this interesting balance going

Imamo tu neku zanimljivu ravnotežu

where we allow our unchecked optimism to fuel our visions.

gde dozvoljavamo našem nerealnom optimizmu da pokreće naše vizije.

But then we also harness enthusiastic skepticism

Ali takođe gajimo entuzijastičnu skepsu

to breathe life, breathe reality into those visions.

da udahne život, da udahne stvarnost u te vizije.

I want to show you a few of the projects

Želim da vam pokažem nekoliko projekata

that we've had to leave behind on the cutting room floor,

koje smo morali da odbacimo u fazi izgradnje,

and also a few of the gems

kao i nekoliko dragulja

that at least so far, have not only survived that process,

koji, bar za sad, ne samo da su preživeli taj proces,

but have been accelerated by it.

već ih je on ubrzao.

Last year we killed a project in automated vertical farming.

Prošle godine smo ukinuli projekat automatizovane vertikalne zemljoradnje.

This is some of the lettuce that we grew.

Ovo je deo zelene salate koju smo uzgojili.

One in nine people in the world suffers from undernourishment.

Jedan od pet ljudi u svetu pati od neuhranjenosti.

So this is a moonshot that needs to happen.

Pa je ovo "pohod na mesec" koji mora da se desi.

Vertical farming uses 10 times less water

Vertikalna zemljoradnja troši deset puta manje vode

and a hundred times less land than conventional farming.

i sto puta manje zemlje od uobičajene zemljoradnje.

And because you can grow the food close to where it's consumed,

A stoga što možete da uzgajate hranu blizu mesta gde se konzumira,

you don't have to transport it large distances.

ne morate da je transportujete na udaljena mesta.

We made progress in a lot of the areas

Postigli smo napredak u mnogim oblastima,

like automated harvesting and efficient lighting.

poput automatizovane berbe i efikasnog osvetljenja.

But unfortunately,

Međutim, nažalost,

we couldn't get staple crops like grains and rice to grow this way.

nismo mogli da ovako uzgajamo osnovne useve, poput žitarica i pirinča.

So we killed the project.

Pa smo okončali projekat.

Here's another huge problem.

Još jedan ogroman problem.

We pay enormous costs in resources and environmental damage

Plaćamo ogromnu cenu u resursima i šteti po okolinu

to ship goods worldwide.

kako bi prevozili robu širom sveta.

Economic development of landlocked countries

Ekonomski razvoj zemalja bez izlaza na more

is limited by lack of shipping infrastructure.

je ograničen nedostatkom brodske infrastrukture.

The radical solution?

Radikalno rešenje?

A lighter-than-air, variable-buoyancy cargo ship.

Lakši od vazduha, podesivi ploveći teretni brod.

This has the potential to lower,

Ovo ima potencijal da smanji,

at least overall,

bar sveukupno,

the cost, time and carbon footprint of shipping

cenu, vreme i ugljeničnu štetu prevoza,

without needing runways.

a nije mu neophodna pista.

We came up with this clever set of technical breakthroughs

Došli smo do ovog pametnog skupa tehničkih pronalazaka

that together might make it possible for us to lower the cost enough

koji zajedno možda mogu da nam omoguće da snizimo trošak dovoljno

that we could actually make these ships --

da zapravo možemo da pravimo ove brodove -

inexpensively enough in volume.

dovoljno jeftinim na veliko.

But however cheap they would have been to make in volume

No koliko god bila jeftina njihova proizvodnja na veliko,

it turned out that it was going to cost close to 200 million dollars

ispostavilo se da bi nas koštalo skoro 200 miliona dolara

to design and build the first one.

da dizajniramo i napravimo prvi od njih.

200 million dollars is just way too expensive.

Dvesta miliona dolara je prosto isuviše skupo.

Because X is structured with these tight feedback loops

Zato što je Iks struktuiran na čvrstoj petlji povratnih informacija,

of making mistakes and learning and new designs,

pravljenju grešaka, učenju i novim dizajnima,

we can't spend 200 million dollars

ne možemo potrošiti 200 mil. dolara

to get the first data point

da bismo dobili prvu jedinicu podataka

about whether we're on the right track or not.

o tome da li smo na pravom putu ili ne.

If there's an Achilles' heel in one our projects,

Ako neki od naših projekata ima Ahilovu petu,

we want to know it now, up front, not way down the road.

želimo to odmah da znamo, unapred, a ne kasnije tokom procesa.

So we killed this project, too.

Pa smo okončali i ovaj projekat.

Discovering a major flaw in a project

Otkriće velike greške u projektu

doesn't always mean that it ends the project.

uvek nužno ne znači da će ga to okončati.

Sometimes it actually gets us onto a more productive path.

Ponekad nas zapravo izvede na produktivniji put.

This is our fully self-driving vehicle prototype,

Ovo je prototip našeg u potpunosti samoupravljajućeg vozila,

which we built without a steering wheel or break pedal.

koje smo napravili bez volana i kočnica.

But that wasn't actually our goal when we started.

No to nam zapravo nije bio cilj kad smo počinjali.

With 1.2 million people dying on the roads globally every year,

Kako 1,2 miliona ljudi umire svake godine na putevima u svetu,

building a car that drives itself was a natural moonshot to take.

izgradnja automobila bez vozača je bio prirodan pohod na mesec.

Three and a half years ago,

Pre tri i po godine,

when we had these Lexus, retrofitted, self-driving cars in testing,

kada smo testirali ove leksuse, prerađena i samoupravljačka auta,

they were doing so well, we gave them out to other Googlers

toliko im je dobro išlo, da smo ih poklonili drugim Guglovcima

to find out what they thought of the experience.

kako bismo saznali šta oni misle o tom iskustvu.

And what we discovered

A otkrili smo

was that our plan to have the cars do almost all the driving

da je naš plan da automobili obavljaju skoro kompletnu vožnju,

and just hand over to the users in case of emergency

a da prepuštaju kontrolu korisnicima samo u slučaju opasnosti,

was a really bad plan.

bio zaista loš plan.

It wasn't safe

To nije bilo bezbedno

because the users didn't do their job.

jer korisnici nisu obavljali svoj deo posla.

They didn't stay alert

Nisu bili na oprezu,

in case the car needed to hand control back to them.

u slučaju da je bilo potrebno da im automobil preda kontrolu.

This was a major crisis for the team.

Ovo je bila velika kriza za ekipu.

It sent them back to the drawing board.

Vratilo ih je nazad na skiciranje.

And they came up with a beautiful, new perspective.

I došli su do prelepe, nove perspektive.

Aim for a car where you're truly a passenger.

Cilj je automobil u kom ste istinski putnik.

You tell the car where you want to go,

Kažete automobilu kuda želite da idete,

you push a button

pritisnete dugme

and it takes you from point A to point B by itself.

i sam vas odvede od tačke A do tačke B.

We're really grateful

Zahvalni smo

that we had this insight as early on in the project as we did.

što smo spoznali ovo tako rano tokom projekta.

And it's shaped everything we've done since then.

I to je oblikovalo sve što smo od tad uradili.

And now our cars have self-driven more than 1.4 million miles,

A naši samoupravljajući automobili su trenutno prešli više od 2,25 miliona km

and they're out everyday

i svakodnevno su napolju

on the streets of Mountain View, California and Austin, Texas.

na ulicama Mauntin Vjua u Kaliforniji i Ostina u Teksasu.

The cars team shifted their perspective.

Ekipa na automobilima je promenila perspektivu.

This is one of X's mantras.

Ovo je jedna od Iksovih mantri.

Sometimes shifting your perspective is more powerful than being smart.

Ponekad je promeniti perspektivu moćnije nego biti pametan.

Take wind energy.

Uzmite energiju vetra.

It's one of my favorite examples of perspective shifting.

To je jedan od mojih omiljenih primera izmene perspektive.

There's no way that we're going to build

Nema šanse da možemo da napravimo

a better standard wind turbine than the experts in that industry.

bolju standardnu vetrenu turbinu od stručnjaka iz te industrije.

But we found a way to get up higher into the sky,

Ali smo pronašli način da ih podignemo više u nebo,

and so get access to faster, more consistent winds,

i tako dobijemo pristup bržim, konzistentnijim vetrovima,

and so more energy without needing hundreds of tons of steel to get there.

a tako i više energije, bez neophodnosti tona čelika da bismo to postigli.

Our Makani energy kite rises up from its perch

Naš energetski zmaj makani podiže se s motke,

by spinning up those propellers along its wing.

tako što okreće te propelere duž njegovog krila.

And it pulls out a tether as it rises,

I izvlači kabal kako se podiže,

pulling energy up through the tether.

izvlačeći energiju preko kabla.

Once the tether's all the way out,

Čim se kabal skroz odmota,

it goes into crosswind circles in the sky.

počinje da kruži po bočnim vetrovima na nebu.

And now those propellers that lifted it up have become flying turbines.

A sada su ti propeleri, kojima se podigao, postali leteće turbine.

And that sends energy back down the tether.

A to vraća energiju nazad niz kabal.

We haven't yet found a way to kill this project.

Još nismo otkrili način da okončamo ovaj projekat.

And the longer it survives that pressure, the more excited we get

A što duže odoleva pritisku, mi smo uzbuđeniji

that this could become a cheaper and more deployable form

jer bi ovo moglo da postane jeftiniji i prošireniji oblik

of wind energy for the world.

upotrebe energije od vetra u svetu.

Probably the craziest sounding project we have is Project Loon.

Naš projekat koji verovatno najluđe zvuči je Projekat lun.

We're trying to make balloon-powered Internet.

Pokušavamo da sagradimo internet napajanje iz balona.

A network of balloons in the stratosphere

Mrežu balona u stratosferi

that beam an internet connection down to rural and remote areas of the world.

koji bi odašiljali internet konekciju u ruralne i udaljene oblasti u svetu.

This could bring online as many as four billion more people,

Ovo bi moglo da priključi na internet čak još četiri milijarde ljudi,

who today have little or no internet connection.

koji trenutno imaju slab ili nikakav internet.

But you can't just take a cell tower,

Ali ne možete prosto da uzmete mobilni odašiljač,

strap it to a balloon and stick it in the sky.

vežete ga za balon i bacite na nebo.

The winds are too strong, it would be blown away.

Vetrovi su suviše jaki, oduvali bi ga.

And the balloons are too high up to tie it to the ground.

A baloni su suviše visoko u vazduhu da bi bili vezani za zemlju.

Here comes the crazy moment.

Tu stižemo do ludog trena.

What if, instead,

Šta ako bismo,

we let the balloons drift

umesto da dozvolimo balonima da lutaju,

and we taught them how to sail the winds to go where the needed to go?

naučili ih kako da jedre vetrovima kako bi stigli gde je to potrebno?

It turns out the stratosphere has winds

Ispostavilo se da vetrovi u stratosferi

that are going in quite different speeds and directions in thin strata.

duvaju prilično različitim brzinama i pravcima u gustoj strati.

So we hoped that using smart algorithms and wind data from around the world,

Pa smo se nadali da ćemo pametnim algoritmima i podacima o vetru širom sveta

we could maneuver the balloons a bit,

moći bar malo da upravljamo balonima,

getting them to go up and down just a tiny bit in the stratosphere

da ćemo ih navesti da idu gore i dole samo malčice u stratosferi

to grab those winds going in those different directions and speeds.

kako bi uhvatili te vetrove koji se kreću različitim smerovima i brzinama.

The idea is to have enough balloons

Zamisao je da imamo dovoljno balona,

so as one balloon floats out of your area,

pa kad jedan balon odluta van vašeg područja,

there's another balloon ready to float into place,

tu je drugi balon, spreman da ulebdi na njegovo mesto,

handing off the internet connection,

prebacujući internet vezu,

just like your phone hands off between cell towers

baš kao što se vaš telefon prebacuje od predajnika do predajnika

as you drive down the freeway.

dok se vozite auto-putem.

We get how crazy that vision sounds --

Razumemo koliko blesavo ova vizija zvuči -

there's the name of the project to remind us of that.

samo ime projekta nas podseća na to.

So since 2012,

Pa od 2012.

the Loon team has prioritized the work that seems the most difficult

Lun ekipa je stavila za prioritet posao koji se činio najtežim

and so the most likely to kill their project.

i najizglednijim da okonča projekat.

The first thing that they did

Prvo što su uradili,

was try to get a Wi-Fi connection from a balloon in the stratosphere

pokušali su da pošalju vaj-faj vezu iz balona u stratosferi

down to an antenna on the ground.

do antene dole na zemlji.

It worked.

Funkcionisalo je.

And I promise you there were bets that it wasn't going to.

I kunem se da su se neki kladili da neće.

So we kept going.

Pa smo nastvili s radom.

Could we get the balloon to talk directly to handsets,

Možemo li da navedemo balon da razgovara direktno sa slušalicama,

so that we didn't need the antenna as an intermediary receiver?

kako nam ne bi bila potrebna antena kao posredni resiver?

Yeah.

Da.

Could we get the balloon bandwidth high enough

Možemo li postići da protok u balonu bude dovoljno brz

so it was a real Internet connection?

da to bude istinska internet veza?

So that people could have something more than just SMS?

Kako bi ljudi mogli da primaju nešto više od tekstualnih poruka?

The early tests weren't even a megabit per second,

Kod najranijih testiranja nije se radilo ni o megabitu po sekundi,

but now we can do up to 15 megabits per second.

ali sad već postižemo i do 15 megabita po sekundi.

Enough to watch a TED Talk.

Može da se gleda TED govor.

Could we get the balloons to talk to each other through the sky

Možemo li da postignemo da baloni međusobno komuniciraju na nebu,

so that we could reach our signal deeper into rural areas?

kako bi naš signal dosegao udaljenije ruralne oblasti?

Check.

Obavljeno je i to.

Could we get balloons the size of a house to stay up for more than 100 days,

Možemo li da postignemo da baloni veličine kuće lebde više od 100 dana,

while costing less than five percent

koštajući manje od pet procenata

of what traditional, long-life balloons have cost to make?

od cene izrade tradicionalnih, dugovečnih balona?

Yes. In the end.

Uspeli smo na kraju.

But I promise you, you name it, we had to try it to get there.

Ali kunem se, sve smo isprobali da bismo u tome uspeli.

We made round, silvery balloons.

Pravili smo okrugle, srebrnkaste balone.

We made giant pillow-shaped balloons.

Pravili smo džinovske balone u obliku jastuka.

We made balloons the size of a blue whale.

Pravili smo balone veličine plavog kita.

We busted a lot of balloons.

Probušili smo gomilu balona.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

Since one of the things that was most likely to kill the Loon project

Kako se činilo da će najverovatnije da okonča Lun projekat

was whether we could guide the balloons through the sky,

to da li ćemo uspeti da upravljamo balonima kroz nebo,

one of our most important experiments was putting a balloon inside a balloon.

jedan od naših najvažnijih eksperimenata je bio stavljanje balona u balon.

So there are two compartments here, one with air and then one with helium.

Dakle, imamo dve pregrade ovde, jednu s vazduhom, drugu s helijumom.

The balloon pumps air in to make itself heavier,

Balon upumpava vazduh da bi bio teži

or lets air out to make it lighter.

ili ga ispušta kako bi bio lakši.

And these weight changes allow it to rise or fall,

A ove promene u težini mu omogućuju da se diže ili spušta,

and that simple movement of the balloon is its steering mechanism.

a ti prosti pokreti balona su njegov mehanizam upravljanja.

It floats up or down,

On lebdi na gore ili na dole,

hoping to grab winds going in the speed and direction that it wants.

u nadi da će da uhvati vetrove željenog pravca i brzine.

But is that good enough for it to navigate through the world?

Ali da li je to dovoljno da bi se kretao kroz svet?

Barely at first,

Na početku, jedva da je bilo,

but better all the time.

ali se stalno popravljalo.

This particular balloon, our latest balloon,

Baš ovaj balon, naš najnoviji balon,

can navigate a two-mile vertical stretch of sky

u stanju je da se snalazi vertikalnim rasponom na nebu od 3,22 km

and can sail itself to within 500 meters of where it wants to go

i može automatski da plovi na 500 metara do cilja

from 20,000 kilometers away.

iz udaljenosti od 20,000 kilometara.

We have lots more to do

Imamo još mnogo posla,

in terms of fine-tuning the system and reducing costs.

u smislu finog podešavanja sistema i umanjenja troškova.

But last year, a balloon built inexpensively

Ali prošle godine, jeftino napravljen balon

went around the world 19 times over 187 days.

je 19 puta obišao svet za 187 dana.

So we're going to keep going.

Pa ćemo nastaviti dalje.

(Applause)

(Aplauz)

Our balloons today

Naši današnji baloni

are doing pretty much everything a complete system needs to do.

rade skoro sve što bi kompletan sistem trebalo da radi.

We're in discussions with telcos around the world,

Razgovaramo sa telekomunikacijskim firmama širom sveta

and we're going to fly over places like Indonesia

i ove godine ćemo leteti iznad mesta, poput Indonezije,

for real service testing this year.

radi stvarnog testiranja ove usluge.

This probably all sounds too good to be true,

Sve ovo verovatno zvuči suviše dobro da bi bilo istina

and you're right.

i u pravu ste.

Being audacious

Kad ste odvažni

and working on big, risky things

i radite na velikim, rizičnim stvarima

makes people inherently uncomfortable.

osećate se po prirodi nelagodno.

You cannot yell at people and force them to fail fast.

Ne možete da vičete na ljude i da ih naterate da brzo pogreše.

People resist. They worry.

Ljudi se opiru. Sekiraju se.

"What will happen to me if I fail?

"Šta će se desiti sa mnom, ako ne uspem?

Will people laugh at me?

Hoće li mi se ljudi smejati?

Will I be fired?"

Hoće li me otpustiti?"

I started with our secret.

Započeo sam našom tajnom.

I'm going to leave you with how we actually make it happen.

Završiću time kako zapravo ostvarujemo naše zamisli.

The only way to get people to work on big, risky things --

Jedini način da navedete ljude da rade na velikim, rizičnim stvarima -

audacious ideas --

odvažnim idejama -

and have them run at all the hardest parts of the problem first,

i da ih navedete da na početku obave najteže delove problema,

is if you make that the path of least resistance for them.

je da to, za njih, pretvorite u liniju manjeg otpora.

We work hard at X to make it safe to fail.

Vredno radimo u Iksu kako bi neuspeh bio bezbedan.

Teams kill their ideas as soon as the evidence is on the table

Ekipe okončavaju svoje ideje čim se pojavi dokaz za to

because they're rewarded for it.

jer ih nagrađuju zbog toga.

They get applause from their peers.

Dobijaju aplauz od kolega.

Hugs and high fives from their manager, me in particular.

Menadžer, naročito ja, ih grli i baca im petaka.

They get promoted for it.

Unapređuju ih zbog toga.

We have bonused every single person on teams that ended their projects,

Isplatili smo bonus svakome u ekipama koje su okončale svoje projekte,

from teams as small as two to teams of more than 30.

od malih ekipa s dva člana do ekipa sa preko 30 članova.

We believe in dreams at the moonshot factory.

U fabrici pohodovanja na mesec verujemo u snove.

But enthusiastic skepticism

Ali entuzijastični skepticizam

is not the enemy of boundless optimism.

nije neprijatelj neobuzdanom optimizmu.

It's optimism's perfect partner.

On je savršen partner za optimizam.

It unlocks the potential in every idea.

On oslobađa potencijal kod svake ideje.

We can create the future that's in our dreams.

Možemo da stvorimo budućnost koju sanjamo.

Thank you very much.

Mnogo vam hvala.

(Applause)

(Aplauz)