The unexpected benefit of celebrating failure | Astro Teller

Prevoditelj: Viktorija Đuđik Recezent: Ivan Stamenković

In 1962 at Rice University,

1962 na sveučilištu Rice,

JFK told the country about a dream he had,

J.F.K. je Amerikancima ispričao svoj san,

a dream to put a person on the moon by the end of the decade.

san da pošalje osobu na Mjesec do kraja desetljeća.

The eponymous moonshot.

Slavno osvajanje Mjeseca.

No one knew if it was possible to do

Nitko nije znao može li se to učiniti.

but he made sure a plan was put in place to do it if it was possible.

Ali on je osigurao da se napravi plan da se to učini ako bude moguće.

That's how great dreams are.

To je snaga snova.

Great dreams aren't just visions,

Veliki snovi nisu samo vizije,

they're visions coupled to strategies for making them real.

oni su vizije vezane za strategije koje ih čine stvarnima.

I have the incredible good fortune to work at a moonshot factory.

Imam puno sreće što što radim u tvornici Osvajanja Mjeseca

At X -- formerly called Google X --

U X-u, nekad zvanom Google X,

you'll find an aerospace engineer working alongside a fashion designer

zrakoplovni inženjeri rade s modnim dizajnerima,

and former military ops commanders brainstorming with laser experts.

a bivši vojni zapovjednici razmjenjuju ideje sa stručnjacima za laser.

These inventors, engineers and makers are dreaming up technologies

Ti izumitelji, inženjeri i stvaratelji osmišljavaju tehnologije

that we hope can make the world a wonderful place.

za koje se nadamo da mogu učiniti svijet predivnim mjestom.

We use the word "moonshots" to remind us to keep our visions big --

Koristimo izraz "osvajanje Mjeseca" da bi naše vizije ostale velike,

to keep dreaming.

da nastavimo sanjati.

And we use the word "factory" to remind ourselves

Koristimo riječ "tvornica" da se podsjetimo

that we want to have concrete visions --

da moramo imati konkretne vizije,

concrete plans to make them real.

konkretne planove kojima ćemo ih ostvariti.

Here's our moonshot blueprint.

Ovo je naš nacrt osvajanja Mjeseca.

Number one:

Prvo:

we want to find a huge problem in the world

želimo pronaći veliki problem u svijetu

that affects many millions of people.

koji utječe na milijune ljudi.

Number two:

Drugo:

we want to find or propose a radical solution for solving that problem.

želimo pronaći ili predložiti radikalno rješenje za taj problem.

And then number three:

I treće:

there has to be some reason to believe

mora postojati razlog da vjerujemo

that the technology for such a radical solution

da se tehnologija za takvo radikalno rješenje

could actually be built.

zaista može napraviti.

But I have a secret for you.

Ali odat ću vam tajnu.

The moonshot factory is a messy place.

Tvornica osvajanja Mjeseca je neuredno mjesto.

But rather than avoid the mess,

Ali umjesto da izbjegavamo nered,

pretend it's not there,

i pravimo se da ne postoji,

we've tried to make that our strength.

pokušali smo to učiniti našom prednosti.

We spend most of our time breaking things

Većinu vremena rastavljamo stvari

and trying to prove that we're wrong.

i pokušavamo dokazati da smo u krivu.

That's it, that's the secret.

To je to, to je tajna.

Run at all the hardest parts of the problem first.

Rješavati prvo najteže dijelove problema.

Get excited and cheer,

Uzbuđeno uzvikivati,

"Hey! How are we going to kill our project today?"

"Hej! Kako ćemo danas ubiti projekt?"

We've got this interesting balance going

Imamo zanimljivu ravnotežu

where we allow our unchecked optimism to fuel our visions.

u kojoj naš nekontrolirani optimizam hrani naše vizije.

But then we also harness enthusiastic skepticism

Ali mi također koristimo entuzijastični skepticizam

to breathe life, breathe reality into those visions.

da tim vizijama udahnemo život, da im damo realnost.

I want to show you a few of the projects

Pokazat ću vam neke od projekata

that we've had to leave behind on the cutting room floor,

koje smo morali ostaviti na katu za rezanje

and also a few of the gems

i nekoliko dragulja

that at least so far, have not only survived that process,

koji, bar zasad, nisu samo preživjeli taj proces,

but have been accelerated by it.

nego ih je on pospješio.

Last year we killed a project in automated vertical farming.

Prošle godine smo ukinuli projekt automatskog vertikalnog uzgoja.

This is some of the lettuce that we grew.

Ovo je dio salate koju smo uzgojili.

One in nine people in the world suffers from undernourishment.

Jedna od devet osoba u svijetu pati od neuhranjenosti.

So this is a moonshot that needs to happen.

To je osvajanje Mjeseca koje treba ostvariti.

Vertical farming uses 10 times less water

Vertikalni uzgoj zahtijeva 10 puta manje vode

and a hundred times less land than conventional farming.

i 100 puta manje zemlje od konvencionalnog uzgoja.

And because you can grow the food close to where it's consumed,

A budući da se hrana može uzgojiti blizu mjesta konzumacije,

you don't have to transport it large distances.

ne mora se prevoziti na udaljena mjesta.

We made progress in a lot of the areas

Napredovali smo u puno područja,

like automated harvesting and efficient lighting.

kao u automatskoj berbi i učinkovitoj rasvjeti.

But unfortunately,

Ali nažalost,

we couldn't get staple crops like grains and rice to grow this way.

na ovaj način nismo mogli uzgojiti osnovne usjeve kao žitarice i rižu.

So we killed the project.

Pa smo ukinuli projekt.

Here's another huge problem.

Evo drugog velikog problema.

We pay enormous costs in resources and environmental damage

Plaćamo ogromnu cijenu u resursima i zagađenju okoliša

to ship goods worldwide.

kako bismo prevozili robu širom svijeta.

Economic development of landlocked countries

Ekonomski razvoj zemalja bez izlaza na more

is limited by lack of shipping infrastructure.

ograničen je nedostatkom prijevozne infrastrukture.

The radical solution?

Radikalno rješenje?

A lighter-than-air, variable-buoyancy cargo ship.

Teretni brod lakši od zraka, promjenjivog pogona.

This has the potential to lower,

Ovo može smanjiti,

at least overall,

barem sveukupno,

the cost, time and carbon footprint of shipping

trošak, vrijeme i ugljični otisak prijevoza

without needing runways.

bez potrebe za pistama.

We came up with this clever set of technical breakthroughs

Osmislili smo domišljat skup tehničkih otkrića

that together might make it possible for us to lower the cost enough

koji bi nam zajedno možda omogućili da smanjimo cijene

that we could actually make these ships --

dovoljno da zaista napravimo te brodove

inexpensively enough in volume.

dovoljno jeftine na veliko.

But however cheap they would have been to make in volume

Ali koliko god da se jeftino mogu napraviti u velikoj količini,

it turned out that it was going to cost close to 200 million dollars

ispostavilo se da će koštati gotovo 200 milijuna dolara

to design and build the first one.

da se dizajnira i sagradi prvi brod.

200 million dollars is just way too expensive.

200 milijuna dolara je jednostavno preskupo.

Because X is structured with these tight feedback loops

Budući da je X strukturiran sa čvrstim krugovima povratnog djelovanja

of making mistakes and learning and new designs,

pravljenja pogrešaka i učenja i novih dizajna,

we can't spend 200 million dollars

ne možemo potrošiti 200 milijuna dolara

to get the first data point

da nam prvi podaci

about whether we're on the right track or not.

kažu jesmo li na pravom tragu ili ne.

If there's an Achilles' heel in one our projects,

Ako u nekom našem projektu postoji Ahilejeva peta,

we want to know it now, up front, not way down the road.

želimo to znati sada, unaprijed, ne tijekom projekta.

So we killed this project, too.

Pa smo ukinuli i ovaj projekt.

Discovering a major flaw in a project

Otkriće velike mane u projektu

doesn't always mean that it ends the project.

ne znači uvijek da se on mora ukinuti.

Sometimes it actually gets us onto a more productive path.

Nekad nas to zapravo odvede na produktivniji put.

This is our fully self-driving vehicle prototype,

Ovo je naš prototip potpuno automatiziranog vozila,

which we built without a steering wheel or break pedal.

koji smo napravili bez upravljača i kočnice.

But that wasn't actually our goal when we started.

Ali to nije bio naš cilj kad smo počeli.

With 1.2 million people dying on the roads globally every year,

S 1.2 milijuna ljudi u svijetu koji poginu na cesti svake godine,

building a car that drives itself was a natural moonshot to take.

napraviti auto koji se sâm vozi bilo je prirodno osvajanje Mjeseca.

Three and a half years ago,

Prije tri i pol godine,

when we had these Lexus, retrofitted, self-driving cars in testing,

kad smo testirali Lexuse, poboljšane, autonomne,

they were doing so well, we gave them out to other Googlers

bili su tako dobri da smo ih dali drugim Googlerima

to find out what they thought of the experience.

da saznamo što misle o tom iskustvu.

And what we discovered

I otkrili smo

was that our plan to have the cars do almost all the driving

da je naš plan da auti odrade gotovo cijelu vožnju

and just hand over to the users in case of emergency

i predaju kontrolu korisnicima u slučaju nužde

was a really bad plan.

bio zaista loš plan.

It wasn't safe

Nije bio siguran

because the users didn't do their job.

jer korisnici nisu odradili svoj posao.

They didn't stay alert

Nisu bili na oprezu

in case the car needed to hand control back to them.

u slučaju da im je auto trebao vratiti kontrolu.

This was a major crisis for the team.

To je bila velika kriza za ekipu.

It sent them back to the drawing board.

Vratila ih je natrag na skiciranje.

And they came up with a beautiful, new perspective.

I osmislili su prekrasnu, novu perspektivu.

Aim for a car where you're truly a passenger.

Ciljali su auto u kojem ste istinski putnik.

You tell the car where you want to go,

Kažete autu kamo želite ići,

you push a button

pritisnete tipku

and it takes you from point A to point B by itself.

i on vas sâm odveze od točke A do točke B.

We're really grateful

Zaista smo zahvalni

that we had this insight as early on in the project as we did.

da smo to uvidjeli u ovako ranoj fazi projekta.

And it's shaped everything we've done since then.

I to je oblikovalo sve što smo otada napravili.

And now our cars have self-driven more than 1.4 million miles,

I sada su naši auti sâmi odvezli više od 2.25 milijuna kilometara,

and they're out everyday

i svaki dan su vani

on the streets of Mountain View, California and Austin, Texas.

na ulicama Mountain Viewa u Kaliforniji i Austina u Teksasu.

The cars team shifted their perspective.

Automobilske ekipe su promijenile perspektivu.

This is one of X's mantras.

Ovo je jedna od X-ovih izreka.

Sometimes shifting your perspective is more powerful than being smart.

Ponekad je promjena perspektive snažnija od same pameti.

Take wind energy.

Na primjer energija vjetra.

It's one of my favorite examples of perspective shifting.

To mi je jedan od omiljenih primjera promjene perspektive.

There's no way that we're going to build

Nema šanse da napravimo

a better standard wind turbine than the experts in that industry.

bolju standardnu turbinu na vjetar od stručnjaka u toj industriji.

But we found a way to get up higher into the sky,

Ali smo pronašli način da ih podignemo više u nebo

and so get access to faster, more consistent winds,

i tako dobijemo pristup bržim, stalnijim vjetrovima,

and so more energy without needing hundreds of tons of steel to get there.

a uz to i više energije bez potrebe za stotinama tona čelika.

Our Makani energy kite rises up from its perch

Naš Makani energetski zmaj diže se iz svog postolja

by spinning up those propellers along its wing.

vrteći propelere na svom krilu.

And it pulls out a tether as it rises,

A dok se diže izvlači kabel,

pulling energy up through the tether.

povlačeći energiju kroz kabel.

Once the tether's all the way out,

Kad se kabel cijeli izvuče,

it goes into crosswind circles in the sky.

zmaj kruži na nebu po bočnim vjetrovima.

And now those propellers that lifted it up have become flying turbines.

I sad su ti propeleri koji su ga podigli postali leteće turbine.

And that sends energy back down the tether.

I šalju energiju dolje kablom.

We haven't yet found a way to kill this project.

Još nismo pronašli način da ubijemo ovaj projekt.

And the longer it survives that pressure, the more excited we get

A što dulje preživi taj pritisak mi smo uzbuđeniji

that this could become a cheaper and more deployable form

što bi on mogao postati jeftiniji oblik energije vjetra

of wind energy for the world.

koji je lakše proširiti po svijetu.

Probably the craziest sounding project we have is Project Loon.

Projekt koji vjerojatno najluđe zvuči je Projekt Loon.

We're trying to make balloon-powered Internet.

Pokušavamo napraviti internet s pogonom na balon.

A network of balloons in the stratosphere

Mrežu balona u stratosferi

that beam an internet connection down to rural and remote areas of the world.

koji odašilju internetsku vezu u ruralne i udaljene dijelove svijeta.

This could bring online as many as four billion more people,

To bi moglo priključiti na internet čak 4 milijarde ljudi

who today have little or no internet connection.

koji danas imaju slabu ili nikakvu povezanost.

But you can't just take a cell tower,

Ali ne možete samo uzeti baznu stanicu,

strap it to a balloon and stick it in the sky.

zavezati je za balon i gurnuti je u nebo.

The winds are too strong, it would be blown away.

Vjetrovi su prejaki, otpuhali bi je.

And the balloons are too high up to tie it to the ground.

A baloni su previsoko da se pričvrste za zemlju.

Here comes the crazy moment.

Evo ludog trenutka.

What if, instead,

Što ako, umjesto toga,

we let the balloons drift

pustimo balone da odlete

and we taught them how to sail the winds to go where the needed to go?

i naučimo ih kako da plove na vjetrovima i odu gdje trebaju otići?

It turns out the stratosphere has winds

Ispostavilo se da su u stratosferi vjetrovi

that are going in quite different speeds and directions in thin strata.

koji različitom brzinom i smjerom idu u tankim slojevima.

So we hoped that using smart algorithms and wind data from around the world,

Nadali da ćemo koristeći pametne algoritme i podatke o vjetrovima diljem svijeta

we could maneuver the balloons a bit,

moći malo upravljati balonima,

getting them to go up and down just a tiny bit in the stratosphere

odvesti ih više i niže u jednom malom dijelu stratosfere

to grab those winds going in those different directions and speeds.

kako bi uhvatili vjetrove koji pušu u tim različitim smjerovima i brzinama.

The idea is to have enough balloons

Zamisao je da imamo dovoljno balona

so as one balloon floats out of your area,

da ako jedan balon odleti iz svog područja

there's another balloon ready to float into place,

imamo drugi balon spreman uletjeti na njegovo mjesto,

handing off the internet connection,

prebacujući internetsku vezu

just like your phone hands off between cell towers

kao što se vaš mobitel prebacuje između baznih stanica

as you drive down the freeway.

dok vozite autocestom.

We get how crazy that vision sounds --

Znamo kako ludo zvuči naša vizija --

there's the name of the project to remind us of that.

tu je i ime projekta da nas podsjeća na to.

So since 2012,

Zato je od 2012,

the Loon team has prioritized the work that seems the most difficult

ekipa Loon davala prednost poslovima koji su se činili najtežima

and so the most likely to kill their project.

i koji bi najvjerojatnije ubili projekt.

The first thing that they did

Prvo što su učinili,

was try to get a Wi-Fi connection from a balloon in the stratosphere

pokušali su uspostaviti Wi-Fi mrežu između balona iz stratosfere

down to an antenna on the ground.

i antene na tlu.

It worked.

Uspjelo je.

And I promise you there were bets that it wasn't going to.

A obećajem vam da je bilo oklada da neće.

So we kept going.

Pa smo nastavili.

Could we get the balloon to talk directly to handsets,

Možemo li navesti balon da govori izravno s mobitelom,

so that we didn't need the antenna as an intermediary receiver?

da nam ne treba antena kao posrednički prijamnik?

Yeah.

Da.

Could we get the balloon bandwidth high enough

Možemo li podići pojasnu širinu balona dovoljno visoko

so it was a real Internet connection?

da bude prava internetska veza?

So that people could have something more than just SMS?

Da ljudi mogu koristiti više od SMS-a?

The early tests weren't even a megabit per second,

Prvi testovi nisu bili ni megabit po sekundi,

but now we can do up to 15 megabits per second.

ali sada možemo poslati do 15 megabita po sekundi.

Enough to watch a TED Talk.

Dovoljno da pogledamo TED govor.

Could we get the balloons to talk to each other through the sky

Možemo li učiniti da baloni međusobno razgovaraju nebom

so that we could reach our signal deeper into rural areas?

kako bi poslali naš signal dublje u ruralna predjela.

Check.

Učinjeno.

Could we get balloons the size of a house to stay up for more than 100 days,

Možemo li držati balon veličine kuće u zraku više od 100 dana,

while costing less than five percent

s troškovima manjima od 5%

of what traditional, long-life balloons have cost to make?

od troškova izrade uobičajenih, dugotrajnih balona?

Yes. In the end.

Da. Na kraju.

But I promise you, you name it, we had to try it to get there.

Ali obećajem vam, morali smo pokušati sve što zamislite da to uspijemo.

We made round, silvery balloons.

Napravili smo male, srebrenkaste balone.

We made giant pillow-shaped balloons.

Napravili smo ogromne balone u obliku jastuka.

We made balloons the size of a blue whale.

Napravili smo balone veličine plavetnog kita.

We busted a lot of balloons.

Upropastili smo puno balona.

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

Since one of the things that was most likely to kill the Loon project

Budući da se činilo da ćemo najvjerojatnije ukinuti projekt

was whether we could guide the balloons through the sky,

ako ne možemo navoditi balone po nebu,

one of our most important experiments was putting a balloon inside a balloon.

jedan od najvažnijih eksperimenata bio je staviti balon u drugi balon.

So there are two compartments here, one with air and then one with helium.

Tu su dva pretinca, jedan sa zrakom i drugi s helijem.

The balloon pumps air in to make itself heavier,

Balon upuhuje zrak da bude teži,

or lets air out to make it lighter.

ili ispušta zrak da bude lakši.

And these weight changes allow it to rise or fall,

Promjene težine mu dopuštaju da se diže ili pada,

and that simple movement of the balloon is its steering mechanism.

i taj jednostavni pokret balona je upravljački mehanizam.

It floats up or down,

Lebdi gore ili dolje,

hoping to grab winds going in the speed and direction that it wants.

nadajući se da će uhvatiti vjetar sa željenom brzinom i smjerom.

But is that good enough for it to navigate through the world?

No, je li to dovoljno dobro da se kreće kroz svijet?

Barely at first,

Ispočetka jedva,

but better all the time.

ali sve bolje svaki put.

This particular balloon, our latest balloon,

Baš ovaj balon, naš najnoviji balon,

can navigate a two-mile vertical stretch of sky

može putovati 3,22km vertikalno kroz nebo

and can sail itself to within 500 meters of where it wants to go

i može doći na 500m od svog cilja

from 20,000 kilometers away.

s udaljenosti od 20.000 kilometara.

We have lots more to do

Još moramo puno toga učiniti

in terms of fine-tuning the system and reducing costs.

u okviru ugođavanja sistema i smanjenja troškova.

But last year, a balloon built inexpensively

Ali prošle godine, balon koji smo jeftino napravili

went around the world 19 times over 187 days.

prošao je svijet 19 puta u 187 dana.

So we're going to keep going.

Stoga namjeravamo nastaviti.

(Applause)

(Pljesak)

Our balloons today

Naši baloni danas

are doing pretty much everything a complete system needs to do.

čine gotovo sve što potpuni sustavi trebaju činiti.

We're in discussions with telcos around the world,

Pregovaramo s telekomunikacijskim tvrtkama diljem svijeta

and we're going to fly over places like Indonesia

i letjet ćemo iznad mjesta kao što je Indonezija

for real service testing this year.

za ispitivanje stvarne usluge ove godine.

This probably all sounds too good to be true,

Ovo vjerojatno zvuči predobro da bi bilo istinito,

and you're right.

i u pravu ste.

Being audacious

Biti odvažan

and working on big, risky things

i raditi na velikim, riskantnim projektima

makes people inherently uncomfortable.

čini ljude nesigurnima po prirodi.

You cannot yell at people and force them to fail fast.

Ne možete vikati na ljude i prisiliti ih da brzo podbace.

People resist. They worry.

Oni se odupiru. Brinu se.

"What will happen to me if I fail?

"Što će mi se dogoditi ako ne uspijem?

Will people laugh at me?

Hoće li mi se svi smijati?

Will I be fired?"

Hoće li me otpustiti?"

I started with our secret.

Počeo sam s našom tajnom.

I'm going to leave you with how we actually make it happen.

Za kraj ću vam reći kako smo je zapravo ostvarili.

The only way to get people to work on big, risky things --

Jedini način da ljudi rade na velikim, riskantnim projektima --

audacious ideas --

odvažnim idejama --

and have them run at all the hardest parts of the problem first,

i da se bave prvo s najtežim problemima,

is if you make that the path of least resistance for them.

je da to za njih bude linija najmanje otpora.

We work hard at X to make it safe to fail.

U X-u naporno radimo da neuspjeh učinimo sigurnim.

Teams kill their ideas as soon as the evidence is on the table

Ekipe odustaju od svojih ideja čim su dokazi na stolu

because they're rewarded for it.

jer su za to nagrađeni.

They get applause from their peers.

Dobiju pljesak od kolega.

Hugs and high fives from their manager, me in particular.

Od menadžera zagrljaje i čestitke, naročito od mene.

They get promoted for it.

Za to dobiju promaknuće.

We have bonused every single person on teams that ended their projects,

Dali smo bonus svakoj osobi u ekipi koja je ukinula svoj projekt,

from teams as small as two to teams of more than 30.

bila to ekipa od samo dva člana ili s više od 30.

We believe in dreams at the moonshot factory.

U tvornici osvajanja Mjeseca vjerujemo u snove.

But enthusiastic skepticism

Ali entuzijastični skepticizam

is not the enemy of boundless optimism.

nije neprijatelj beskrajnog optimizma.

It's optimism's perfect partner.

On je savršeni partner optimizma.

It unlocks the potential in every idea.

On otključava potencijal svake ideje.

We can create the future that's in our dreams.

Možemo stvoriti budućnost iz naših snova.

Thank you very much.

Hvala vam puno.

(Applause)

(Pljesak)