The unexpected benefit of celebrating failure | Astro Teller

譯者: 易帆 余 審譯者: Lucia Huang

In 1962 at Rice University,

1962年，在萊斯大學，

JFK told the country about a dream he had,

約翰．甘乃迪總統 向人民宣告了一個他的夢想，

a dream to put a person on the moon by the end of the decade.

一個10年內要把 人類送到月球的夢想：

The eponymous moonshot.

阿波羅登月計畫。

No one knew if it was possible to do

當時沒有人知道，這到底可不可行，

but he made sure a plan was put in place to do it if it was possible.

但只要有可能， 他就會擬定計畫讓它實現。

That's how great dreams are.

偉大的夢想就是這樣形成的。

Great dreams aren't just visions,

偉大的夢想並不只是願景，

they're visions coupled to strategies for making them real.

它們結合了願景與策略， 使夢想成真。

I have the incredible good fortune to work at a moonshot factory.

我何其有幸可以在 「登月工廠」工作。

At X -- formerly called Google X --

在 X 公司，之前被叫做 Google X ，

you'll find an aerospace engineer working alongside a fashion designer

你會看到航太工程師 與時尚設計師一起工作，

and former military ops commanders brainstorming with laser experts.

還有前軍隊指揮官與 雷射專家一起腦力激盪。

These inventors, engineers and makers are dreaming up technologies

這些發明家、工程師、製造者

在為我們更美好的世界築夢。

that we hope can make the world a wonderful place.

We use the word "moonshots" to remind us to keep our visions big --

我們使用「登月」這個字， 來提醒我們要目光遠大，

to keep dreaming.

並持續夢想。

And we use the word "factory" to remind ourselves

而我們使用「工廠」這個字， 是要提醒自己，

that we want to have concrete visions --

要有具體的願景、

concrete plans to make them real.

具體的計畫，讓夢想成真。

Here's our moonshot blueprint.

這是我們的登月藍圖。

Number one:

第一：

we want to find a huge problem in the world

我們要找出在這世界上，

that affects many millions of people.

會影響好幾百萬人的重要問題。

Number two:

第二：

we want to find or propose a radical solution for solving that problem.

我們要找出或提出一個， 可以徹底解決這個問題的方案。

And then number three:

第三：

there has to be some reason to believe

我們有理由相信，

that the technology for such a radical solution

這個解決方案的科技

could actually be built.

可以被實作出來。

But I have a secret for you.

但我有個秘密要告訴各位。

The moonshot factory is a messy place.

登月工廠是一個混亂的地方。

But rather than avoid the mess,

但與其避開混亂

pretend it's not there,

或假裝視而不見，

we've tried to make that our strength.

我們更需要的是發揮我們的實力。

We spend most of our time breaking things

我們花很多時間在突破現狀

and trying to prove that we're wrong.

並嘗試證明我們是錯的。

That's it, that's the secret.

就這樣，這就是那個秘密。

Run at all the hardest parts of the problem first.

先把問題最困難的地方 拿出來討論研究。

Get excited and cheer,

並為此感到刺激而且振奮：

"Hey! How are we going to kill our project today?"

「嘿！我們今天會如何 砍掉我們的專案？」

We've got this interesting balance going

我們在這樣有趣的 平衡中持續往前，

where we allow our unchecked optimism to fuel our visions.

在一個盲目的樂觀中 推動我們的願景。

But then we also harness enthusiastic skepticism

並裝備上積極的懷疑態度

to breathe life, breathe reality into those visions.

把生命與實際注入到 我們的願景裡面。

I want to show you a few of the projects

我想向各位展示一些計畫，

that we've had to leave behind on the cutting room floor,

一些我們必須留在工廠 淘汰掉的計畫，

and also a few of the gems

及其中的一些璞玉，

that at least so far, have not only survived that process,

那些倖存下來，

且在這樣的模式中， 得到加速發展的專案。

but have been accelerated by it.

Last year we killed a project in automated vertical farming.

去年，我們砍掉了一個 自動的垂直耕種計畫。

This is some of the lettuce that we grew.

這些是我們種植的生菜。

One in nine people in the world suffers from undernourishment.

世界上九個人裡面就有一個人 有營養不良的問題。

So this is a moonshot that needs to happen.

所以這是一個需要 被解決的登月問題。

Vertical farming uses 10 times less water

垂直耕種比傳統耕種

and a hundred times less land than conventional farming.

少了十倍的水量及百倍的土地。

And because you can grow the food close to where it's consumed,

當你可以在 消費當地直接耕種，

you don't have to transport it large distances.

你不須要把食物 運送到很遠的地方。

We made progress in a lot of the areas

我們在自動收割及 高效照明方面

like automated harvesting and efficient lighting.

下了很多的工夫去研發。

But unfortunately,

但很不幸，

we couldn't get staple crops like grains and rice to grow this way.

用這種方式無法種出主食類的 農作物，像是，穀類和米食類。

So we killed the project.

所以，我們砍掉了這個專案。

Here's another huge problem.

這裡有另一個重大問題。

We pay enormous costs in resources and environmental damage

我們付出了很高的資源 及環境破壞的成本，

to ship goods worldwide.

把物品運送到全世界。

Economic development of landlocked countries

內陸國家的經濟發展，

is limited by lack of shipping infrastructure.

受限於貨運基礎設施的缺乏。

The radical solution?

有沒有一個徹底的解決方案呢？

A lighter-than-air, variable-buoyancy cargo ship.

一個比空氣還輕，可調節 浮力的空中貨運船。

This has the potential to lower,

至少這是目前最有潛力

可以降低運輸時間、成本及

at least overall,

the cost, time and carbon footprint of shipping

碳足跡的最佳方案，

without needing runways.

而且它不需要公路。

We came up with this clever set of technical breakthroughs

我們想出了這些聰明的 突破性的技術，

that together might make it possible for us to lower the cost enough

結合這些科技， 可讓我們降低成本，

that we could actually make these ships --

使每單位容量的建造成本，

inexpensively enough in volume.

低至可以接受。

But however cheap they would have been to make in volume

然而這個相對便宜的價格， 是建立在容量夠大的前題上。

it turned out that it was going to cost close to 200 million dollars

然後，我們發現，

設計及建造第一台出來， 得花兩億美金。

to design and build the first one.

200 million dollars is just way too expensive.

兩億美金實在是太昂貴了。

Because X is structured with these tight feedback loops

「X團隊」架構在迅速的反饋，

它重複地從錯誤中學習 並提出新的設計。

of making mistakes and learning and new designs,

we can't spend 200 million dollars

我們不能花兩億美金

to get the first data point

只為得到第一筆資料

about whether we're on the right track or not.

來證明我們是否在 正確的軌道上。

If there's an Achilles' heel in one our projects,

如果我們的專案 有一個致命的缺點，

we want to know it now, up front, not way down the road.

我們想要第一時間就知道， 而不是等事情做了才發現。

So we killed this project, too.

所以，我們也把這個專案砍了。

Discovering a major flaw in a project

發現了專案的重大缺陷，

doesn't always mean that it ends the project.

並不意味著專案就此結束。

Sometimes it actually gets us onto a more productive path.

它實際上有時候，這會帶領 我們到更有效率的道路上。

This is our fully self-driving vehicle prototype,

這是我們全自動駕駛車的原型，

which we built without a steering wheel or break pedal.

一部不用方向盤及 剎車踏板的自駕車。

But that wasn't actually our goal when we started.

但這並不是我們 一開始的目標。

With 1.2 million people dying on the roads globally every year,

當全球每年有 120萬人死於車禍，

building a car that drives itself was a natural moonshot to take.

建造一部自駕車， 自然成為登月計畫的願景之一。

Three and a half years ago,

3年半前，

when we had these Lexus, retrofitted, self-driving cars in testing,

當時我們用 Lexus 改造的 自動駕駛車做測試，

they were doing so well, we gave them out to other Googlers

他們做的很棒， 我們邀請 Googler 來試駕，

to find out what they thought of the experience.

看看他們體驗後的想法。

And what we discovered

但我們卻發現到，

was that our plan to have the cars do almost all the driving

讓車子長時間保持自動駕駛，

and just hand over to the users in case of emergency

在緊急狀況， 把控制權交還給使用者

was a really bad plan.

其實是個很糟的計畫。

It wasn't safe

它並不安全，

because the users didn't do their job.

因為使用者沒有 盡到他們的責任。

They didn't stay alert

當車子需要把控制權 交還給使用者時，

in case the car needed to hand control back to them.

使用者並沒有保持警覺。

This was a major crisis for the team.

這是團隊的一大災難。

It sent them back to the drawing board.

這把團隊人員再度送回白板前，

And they came up with a beautiful, new perspective.

結果他們想出了一個漂亮的， 全新的觀點。

Aim for a car where you're truly a passenger.

專注於把使用者設定在 完全是一位乘客的角度上來思考，

You tell the car where you want to go,

你只要告訴車子你要去哪，

you push a button

按下按鈕後，

and it takes you from point A to point B by itself.

它自己就會把你從A點帶到B點。

We're really grateful

我們很幸運，

that we had this insight as early on in the project as we did.

能在專案的早期， 就洞悉到這一點。

And it's shaped everything we've done since then.

這個概念形塑了我們 接下來的所有設計。

And now our cars have self-driven more than 1.4 million miles,

我們的車子目前 已經行駛了140萬英哩，

and they're out everyday

它們現在每天在

on the streets of Mountain View, California and Austin, Texas.

加州山景市及德州 奧斯丁市的街上跑。

The cars team shifted their perspective.

汽車團隊改變了他們的觀點。

This is one of X's mantras.

這是 X 的魔法咒語之一。

Sometimes shifting your perspective is more powerful than being smart.

有時候轉換你的想法 比天賦異稟更有力量。

Take wind energy.

談一下風力發電。

It's one of my favorite examples of perspective shifting.

這是其中一個我最愛的 改變觀點的例子。

There's no way that we're going to build

我們不可能打造出

a better standard wind turbine than the experts in that industry.

比產業專家所設計 更優秀的風力渦輪機標準

But we found a way to get up higher into the sky,

但我們找到方法 去接近天空的上層。

and so get access to faster, more consistent winds,

那裡有更快、更持續的風，

and so more energy without needing hundreds of tons of steel to get there.

而且不需要好幾百噸的鋼鐵 去取得更多的風力。

Our Makani energy kite rises up from its perch

我們的 Makani 能量風箏，

是藉由機翼上的螺旋槳旋轉 將它從連桿上推升上去。

by spinning up those propellers along its wing.

And it pulls out a tether as it rises,

當它飛起來後， 會把繫繩跟著拉出來，

pulling energy up through the tether.

並透過繫繩取得能量。

Once the tether's all the way out,

一旦繫繩全部被拉出來後，

it goes into crosswind circles in the sky.

它就會在天空中開始旋轉。

And now those propellers that lifted it up have become flying turbines.

現在這些推升風箏上來的螺旋槳， 已經變成飛行渦輪機。

And that sends energy back down the tether.

它會把能量透過繫繩傳送回來。

We haven't yet found a way to kill this project.

我們還沒找到 可以砍掉這個專案的理由。

And the longer it survives that pressure, the more excited we get

這個專案存活越久，我們就越興奮，

that this could become a cheaper and more deployable form

因為它有機會變成更便宜

又可以部署到全世界 的風力電能。

of wind energy for the world.

Probably the craziest sounding project we have is Project Loon.

Loon 計劃可能是， 我們最瘋狂的專案。

We're trying to make balloon-powered Internet.

我們嘗試要做出 熱氣球動力網路。

A network of balloons in the stratosphere

一個在大氣層中 由熱氣球組成的網路，

that beam an internet connection down to rural and remote areas of the world.

它可以為郊區及世界上的 偏遠地區提供網路服務。

This could bring online as many as four billion more people,

這可以讓至今缺乏網路 連線的40億人口

who today have little or no internet connection.

連結到網際網路上來。

But you can't just take a cell tower,

但你不能直接把手機基地台

strap it to a balloon and stick it in the sky.

綁起來黏在熱氣球上 然後送上天空。

The winds are too strong, it would be blown away.

風太大了，會被吹走。

And the balloons are too high up to tie it to the ground.

而且熱氣球飛很高， 沒辦法綁在地上。

Here comes the crazy moment.

瘋狂時刻來臨了。

What if, instead,

如果要是，換個角度想，

we let the balloons drift

我們讓熱氣球用飄的呢？

and we taught them how to sail the winds to go where the needed to go?

我們如何教它們駕馭風力 去到它們需要去的地方呢？

It turns out the stratosphere has winds

事實證明，大氣層中 有一個薄的氣層區域

that are going in quite different speeds and directions in thin strata.

裡面的風有不同的速度與方向。

So we hoped that using smart algorithms and wind data from around the world,

我們希望透過聰明的演算法及 來自世界各地的風力資料，

we could maneuver the balloons a bit,

讓我們可以調動熱氣球，

getting them to go up and down just a tiny bit in the stratosphere

讓熱氣球在大氣層裡上上下下，

to grab those winds going in those different directions and speeds.

抓住不同方向與速度的風。

The idea is to have enough balloons

這個想法是利用夠多的氣球，

so as one balloon floats out of your area,

當一顆熱氣球飄出你的區域時，

there's another balloon ready to float into place,

馬上有另一顆熱氣球 替補進來這一區，

handing off the internet connection,

送出網路的連結訊號，

just like your phone hands off between cell towers

就像是你的手機從高速公路下來後，

as you drive down the freeway.

訊號交換到另一個基地台一樣。

We get how crazy that vision sounds --

我們對這個計畫 的規模感到瘋狂，

there's the name of the project to remind us of that.

專案的名稱隨時 提醒著我們莫忘初衷。

So since 2012,

從2012年起，

the Loon team has prioritized the work that seems the most difficult

Loon 團隊優先處理

最困難及最可能結束專案的項目

and so the most likely to kill their project.

The first thing that they did

他們做的第一件事，

was try to get a Wi-Fi connection from a balloon in the stratosphere

是試著把大氣層裡面 熱氣球的 Wi-Fi 訊號，

down to an antenna on the ground.

傳送到地面上的天線。

It worked.

它成功了。

And I promise you there were bets that it wasn't going to.

我向各位保證， 真的曾有人打賭這個辦不到。

So we kept going.

所以，我們繼續前進。

Could we get the balloon to talk directly to handsets,

我們可以讓熱氣球 與手機直接對話嗎？

so that we didn't need the antenna as an intermediary receiver?

這樣我們就不需要天線 作為居間的接收器了？

Yeah.

可以的。

Could we get the balloon bandwidth high enough

我們可以把熱氣球的頻寬加大，

so it was a real Internet connection?

大到跟真的網路連結一樣快嗎？

So that people could have something more than just SMS?

所以人們除了簡訊之外， 還可以得到更多的功能嗎？

The early tests weren't even a megabit per second,

早期測試時，每秒的 傳送速度甚至不到 1MB ，

but now we can do up to 15 megabits per second.

但現在我們已經達到 每秒 15MB 以上的傳送速度，

Enough to watch a TED Talk.

足夠看 TED 的演講影片了。

Could we get the balloons to talk to each other through the sky

我們可以讓熱氣球彼此溝通，

so that we could reach our signal deeper into rural areas?

把訊號傳到更深遠的郊區嗎？

Check.

沒問題。

Could we get balloons the size of a house to stay up for more than 100 days,

我們可以製造出跟房子一樣大的 熱氣球，在天空停留超過 100 天，

while costing less than five percent

讓它比傳統製造方式生產的氣球更耐用、

of what traditional, long-life balloons have cost to make?

而成本只要原本的5%嗎？

Yes. In the end.

是的。結果可以。

But I promise you, you name it, we had to try it to get there.

但我向你保證，你想的到的， 我們都已經嘗試做過了。

We made round, silvery balloons.

我們有做過圓形的銀色熱氣球。

We made giant pillow-shaped balloons.

我們做過超大枕頭型熱氣球。

We made balloons the size of a blue whale.

我們做過藍鯨型的熱氣球。

We busted a lot of balloons.

我們砍破一大堆的熱氣球。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

Since one of the things that was most likely to kill the Loon project

因為 Loon 專案的關鍵難題是，

was whether we could guide the balloons through the sky,

我們是否能夠 引導熱氣球穿越天際。

one of our most important experiments was putting a balloon inside a balloon.

因此我們最重要的實驗之一， 是把一個熱氣球裝在另一個裡面。

So there are two compartments here, one with air and then one with helium.

製造出兩個分離的空間， 一個裝空氣，另一個裝氦氣。

The balloon pumps air in to make itself heavier,

熱氣球打進空氣 來增加它自身的重量，

or lets air out to make it lighter.

或者把空氣放掉 來減輕重量。

And these weight changes allow it to rise or fall,

這些重量的改變， 可以讓熱氣球上升或下降，

and that simple movement of the balloon is its steering mechanism.

這個簡單的動作， 是操縱熱氣球方向的機制。

It floats up or down,

它上下飄浮，

hoping to grab winds going in the speed and direction that it wants.

去抓取適當的風向， 達到它想要的速度與方向。

But is that good enough for it to navigate through the world?

但這就足以讓它 在全世界航行了嗎？

Barely at first,

剛開始很困難，

but better all the time.

但漸漸的好轉起來了。

This particular balloon, our latest balloon,

這個獨特的熱氣球， 是我們最新的版本，

can navigate a two-mile vertical stretch of sky

它可以在天空 垂直上下航行兩英哩，

and can sail itself to within 500 meters of where it wants to go

而且可以自兩萬公里外，

from 20,000 kilometers away.

自己航行到的目的地， 誤差在 500 公尺內。

We have lots more to do

我們還有很多改進的空間，

in terms of fine-tuning the system and reducing costs.

包括微調系統還有降低成本。

But last year, a balloon built inexpensively

但去年，我們有一個低成本的熱氣球，

went around the world 19 times over 187 days.

已經環繞地球19 圈，超過187 天。

So we're going to keep going.

所以，這個專案會繼續前進。

(Applause)

（掌聲）

Our balloons today

今日，我們的熱氣球，

are doing pretty much everything a complete system needs to do.

已經幾乎是一個完整的系統。

We're in discussions with telcos around the world,

我們正在與世界各地 的電信公司討論，

and we're going to fly over places like Indonesia

我們今年打算飛越印尼，

for real service testing this year.

做真實服務的測試。

This probably all sounds too good to be true,

這聽起來好到令人難以置信，

and you're right.

你是對的。

Being audacious

參與大膽的創新，

and working on big, risky things

成就巨大而高風險的事物

makes people inherently uncomfortable.

會讓人感到如履薄冰。

You cannot yell at people and force them to fail fast.

你不能對著人們吼叫， 強迫他們趕快失敗。

People resist. They worry.

人們會抗拒。他們擔心：

"What will happen to me if I fail?

「如果失敗了，我會發生甚麼事？

Will people laugh at me?

其它人會笑我嗎？

Will I be fired?"

我會失去工作嗎？」

I started with our secret.

讓我從我們的祕密開始講起。

I'm going to leave you with how we actually make it happen.

我會告訴各位，我們實際上 是如何讓它發生的。

The only way to get people to work on big, risky things --

要讓人們勇於任事，冒高風險，

audacious ideas --

開創大膽想法，

and have them run at all the hardest parts of the problem first,

並直入所有問題最困難的核心。 唯一方法是...

is if you make that the path of least resistance for them.

為他們減低這條路上的阻力。

We work hard at X to make it safe to fail.

在 X 公司，我們盡其所能 讓專案安全著地。

Teams kill their ideas as soon as the evidence is on the table

一旦證據攤在眼前， 團隊就中止他們的計劃。

because they're rewarded for it.

因為，他們會因此而得到報償。

They get applause from their peers.

他們從同事那邊獲得掌聲。

Hugs and high fives from their manager, me in particular.

從他們的經理，特別是我這邊， 獲得擁抱並擊掌。

They get promoted for it.

他們會因此獲得晉升。

We have bonused every single person on teams that ended their projects,

當他們結束了他們的專案， 我們還會分紅給每一個人，

from teams as small as two to teams of more than 30.

小至 2 人、大至 30 人的團隊都有。

We believe in dreams at the moonshot factory.

在登月工廠，我們相信夢想。

But enthusiastic skepticism

但積極的懷疑態度

is not the enemy of boundless optimism.

並不是無邊際的樂觀主義的敵人。

It's optimism's perfect partner.

它是樂觀主義的最佳夥伴。

It unlocks the potential in every idea.

它打開了每一個想法的潛力。

We can create the future that's in our dreams.

我們可以創造 我們夢想中的未來。

Thank you very much.

非常謝謝各位。

(Applause)

（掌聲）