What role does luck play in your life? | Barry Schwartz

172,060 views ・ 2020-10-07

TED


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Prevoditelj: Leona Grujić Recezent: Sanda Liker
00:13
Hello, everybody.
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Pozdrav svima.
00:14
I'm honored to be here to talk to you,
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Čast mi je biti ovdje i razgovarati s vama,
00:18
and what I'm going to talk about today is luck and justice
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a govorit ću o pravdi i sreći
00:23
and the relation between them.
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i vezi između toga dvoga.
00:26
Some years ago,
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Prije nekoliko godina
00:27
a former student of mine called me
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nazvao me bivši učenik
00:30
to talk about his daughter.
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kako bi razgovarao o svojoj kćeri.
00:33
It turns out his daughter was a high school senior,
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Njegova kćer je tada bila maturantica
00:35
was seriously interested in applying to Swarthmore,
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i ozbiljno je razmišljala o upisu na Swarthmore,
00:40
where I taught,
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gdje sam ja podučavao
00:41
and he wanted to get my sense of whether she would get in.
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pa ga je zanimalo mislim li da bi mogla upasti.
00:47
Swarthmore is an extremely hard school to get into.
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Iznimno je teško upasti na Swarthmore.
00:51
So I said, "Well, tell me about her."
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Pa sam mu rekao, "Pa, pričaj mi o njoj."
00:54
And he told me about her,
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I on mi je počeo pričati
00:56
what her grades were like, her board scores,
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o njezinim ocjenama i sportskim uspjesima,
00:58
her extracurricular activities.
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o njenim izvannastavnim aktivnostima.
01:01
And she just sounded like a superstar,
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I zvučalo je kao da je superzvijezda,
01:03
wonderful, wonderful kid.
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čudo od djeteta.
01:06
So I said, "She sounds fabulous.
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Pa sam rekao, "Ona zvuči fantastično.
01:08
She sounds like just the kind of student
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Zvuči baš kao učenica
01:10
that Swarthmore would love to have."
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kakvu bi Swarthmore želio."
01:14
And so he said, "Well, does that mean that she'll get in?"
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Na to me on upitao, "Pa, znači li to da će ona upasti?"
01:18
And I said, "No.
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I ja sam rekao, "Ne."
01:20
There just aren't enough spots in the Swarthmore class
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Jednostavno nema dovoljno slobodnih mjesta na Swarthmoreu
01:25
for everybody who's good.
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za sve dobre učenike.
01:26
There aren't enough spots at Harvard or Yale or Princeton or Stanford.
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Nema dovoljno mjesta na Harvardu, ni Yaleu, ni Princetonu, ni Stanfordu.
01:30
There aren't enough spots at Google or Amazon or Apple.
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Nema dovoljno mjesta u Googleu, Amazonu ili Appleu.
01:35
There aren't enough spots at the TED Conference.
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Nema dovoljno mjesta na TED konferencijama.
01:40
There are an awful lot of good people,
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Ima strašno puno nadarenih ljudi
01:42
and some of them are not going to make it."
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i neki od njih neće uspjeti."
01:46
So he said, "Well, what are we supposed to do?"
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Pa je on rekao, "Pa, što da radimo?"
01:50
And I said, "That's a very good question."
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A ja sam rekao, "To je jako dobro pitanje."
01:53
What are we supposed to do?
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Što bismo trebali napraviti?
01:56
And I know what colleges and universities have done.
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Znam što su napravili fakulteti i sveučilišta.
02:00
In the interest of fairness,
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Kako bi igrali fer,
02:03
what they've done is they've kept ratcheting up the standards
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nastavili su podizati standarde,
02:08
because it doesn't seem fair to admit less qualified people
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jer ne djeluje pošteno upisivati manje kvalificirane ljude,
02:14
and reject better qualified people,
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a odbijati više kvalificirane ljude,
02:16
so you just keep raising the standards higher and higher
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pa standardi samo rastu i rastu
02:21
until they're high enough that you can admit
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dok toliko ne narastu da možete primiti
02:23
only the number of students that you can fit.
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samo onoliko učenika koliko stane.
02:27
And this violates a lot of people's sense of what justice and fairness is.
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A to mnogima djeluje nepravedno i nepošteno.
02:34
People in American society have different opinions
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Pojedinci u američkom društvu imaju različita mišljenja
02:37
about what it means to say that some sort of process is just,
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o tome što znači tvrditi da je određeni proces pravedan,
02:41
but I think there's one thing that pretty much everyone agrees on,
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ali mislim da se svi slažu u jednom,
02:44
that in a just system, a fair system,
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a to je da u pravednom, poštenom sustavu,
02:47
people get what they deserve.
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ljudi dobiju ono što zaslužuju.
02:50
And what I was telling my former student
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A ja sam govorio bivšem učeniku
02:53
is that when it comes to college admissions,
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da kad su u pitanju upisi na fakultet,
02:57
it just isn't true that people get what they deserve.
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naprosto nije istina da ljudi dobiju što zaslužuju.
03:01
Some people get what they deserve, and some people don't,
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Neki dobiju što zaslužuju, a neki ne,
03:04
and that's just the way it is.
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i to je naprosto tako.
03:08
When you ratchet up requirements as colleges have done,
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Kad podignete standarde kao što su to učinili fakulteti,
03:11
what you do is you create a crazy competition
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zapravo stvarate nemilosrdno natjecanje
03:14
among high school kids,
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među srednjoškolcima,
03:17
because it's not adequate to be good,
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jer nije dovoljno biti dobar,
03:20
it's not adequate to be good enough,
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nije dovoljno biti dovoljno dobar,
03:22
you have to be better than everybody else who is also applying.
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morate biti bolji od svih ostalih koji se također prijavljuju.
03:26
And what this has done,
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A to je stvorilo,
03:28
or what this has contributed to,
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ili je doprinijelo
03:30
is a kind of epidemic of anxiety and depression
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nekoj vrsti epidemije anksioznosti i depresije
03:33
that is just crushing our teenagers.
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koja slama naše tinejdžere.
03:37
We are wrecking a generation with this kind of competition.
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Uništavamo čitavu generaciju ovim nemilosrdnim natjecanjem.
03:40
As I was thinking about this,
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Dok sam razmišljao o tome,
03:42
it occurred to me there's a way to fix this problem.
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sinulo mi je da postoji način kako riješiti problem.
03:46
And here's what we could do:
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Evo što bismo mogli učiniti.
03:49
when people apply to college,
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Kad se ljudi prijave na fakultet,
03:51
we distinguish between the applicants who are good enough to be successful
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odvajamo one koji su dovoljno dobri da budu uspješni
03:57
and the ones who aren't,
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od onih koji to nisu,
03:59
and we reject the ones who aren't good enough to be successful,
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i odbijamo one koji nisu dovoljno dobri da budu uspješni,
04:02
and then we take all of the others, and we put their names in a hat,
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a onda uzmemo sve ostale, stavimo njihova imena u šešir,
04:06
and we just pick them out at random
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nasumično izaberemo neke od njih
04:08
and admit them.
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i odobrimo im upis.
04:10
In other words, we do college admissions by lottery,
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Drugim riječima, vodimo upis na fakultet kao lutriju,
04:14
and maybe we do job offers at tech companies by lottery,
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a možda vodimo i zapošljavanje u tech tvrtkama kao lutriju,
04:20
and -- perish the thought --
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I - ne dao Bog -
04:21
maybe we even make decisions about who gets invited to talk at TED
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možda čak i odlučujemo koga pozvati na TED
04:26
by lottery.
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lutrijom.
04:27
Now, don't misunderstand me,
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Nemojte me krivo shvatiti,
04:29
a lottery like this is not going to eliminate the injustice.
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lutrija neće eliminirati nepravdu.
04:34
There will still be plenty of people who don't get what they deserve.
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Još uvijek će biti mnogo ljudi koji neće dobiti što zaslužuju.
04:38
But at least it's honest.
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Ali bar ćemo biti iskreni.
04:40
It reveals the injustice for what it is instead of pretending otherwise,
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Razotkrit ćemo nepravdu umjesto da je pokušavamo sakriti,
04:46
and it punctures the incredible pressure balloon
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a to će i probušiti balon nevjerojatnog pritiska
04:49
that our high school kids are now living under.
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u kojem sada žive naši školarci.
04:54
So why is it that this perfectly reasonable proposal,
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Zašto se onda o ovom savršeno razumnom prijedlogu,
04:58
if I do say so myself,
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ako to mogu reći,
05:00
doesn't get any serious discussion?
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uopće ozbiljno ne razgovara?
05:03
I think I know why.
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Mislim da znam zašto.
05:05
I think it's that we hate the idea
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Mislim da je to zato što mrzimo ideju
05:08
that really important things in life might happen by luck or by chance,
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da stvarno važne stvari u životu mogu biti rezultat sreće ili slučajnosti,
05:15
that really important things in our lives are not under our control.
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da stvarno važne stvari u životu nisu pod našom kontrolom.
05:19
I hate that idea.
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I ja mrzim tu ideju.
05:21
It's not surprising that people hate that idea,
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Ne iznenađuje da ljudi mrze tu ideju,
05:24
but it simply is the way things are.
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ali to je naprosto kako stvari stoje.
05:28
First of all, college admissions already is a lottery.
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Prvo, upisi na fakultet već jesu lutrija.
05:33
It's just that the admissions officers pretend that it isn't.
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Samo se oni zaduženi za upise prave da nije tako.
05:37
So let's be honest about it.
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Budimo iskreni.
05:39
And second,
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Drugo,
05:40
I think if we appreciated that it was a lottery,
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mislim da ako bismo prihvatili da to jest lutrija,
05:44
it would also get us to acknowledge the importance of good fortune
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to bi nam omogućilo da priznamo važnost sreće
05:48
in almost every one of our lives.
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u životu svakoga od nas.
05:50
Take me.
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Uzmite mene.
05:53
Almost all the most significant events in my life have occurred,
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Gotovo svi najznačajniji događaji u mom životu bili su
05:58
to a large degree,
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u velikom dijelu
05:59
as a result of good luck.
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rezultat čiste sreće.
06:02
When I was in seventh grade, my family left New York
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Kad sam bio u sedmom razredu, moja je obitelj napustila New York
06:06
and went to Westchester County.
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i preselila se u Westchester County.
06:08
Right at the beginning of school,
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Baš na početku školske godine,
06:10
I met a lovely young girl who became my friend,
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sreo sam predivnu djevojčicu koja je postala moja prijateljica,
06:13
then she became my best friend,
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pa najbolja prijateljica,
06:15
then she became my girlfriend
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pa moja djevojka
06:18
and then she became my wife.
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i naposljetku moja žena.
06:21
Happily, she's been my wife now
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Nasreću, moja je žena
06:23
for 52 years.
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već 52 godine.
06:25
I had very little to do with this. This was a lucky accident.
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Ja nisam imao ništa s time. To je bila sretna slučajnost.
06:30
I went off to college,
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Otišao sam na fakultet
06:31
and in my first semester, I signed up for a class in introduction to psychology.
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i na prvom semestru upisao uvod u psihologiju.
06:37
I didn't even know what psychology was,
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Nisam znao ni što je psihologija,
06:39
but it fit into my schedule and it met requirements,
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ali uklapalo mi se u raspored i ispunjavalo sve uvjete
06:41
so I took it.
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pa sam to upisao.
06:43
And by luck, the class was taught
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Nasreću, kolegij je predavao
06:45
by a superstar introductory psychology teacher, a legend.
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fenomenalan profesor psihologije, legenda.
06:50
Because of that, I became a psychology major.
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Zbog toga sam upisao psihologiju.
06:54
Went off to graduate school.
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Otišao na diplomski.
06:55
I was finishing up.
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Završavao sam studij
06:57
A friend of mine who taught at Swarthmore decided
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kad je prijatelj koji je predavao na Swarthmoreu odlučio
07:00
he didn't want to be a professor anymore,
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da više ne želi biti profesor,
07:03
and so he quit to go to medical school.
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pa je dao otkaz i otišao u medicinsku školu.
07:07
The job that he occupied opened up,
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Njegovo radno mjesto se ispraznilo,
07:09
I applied for it, I got it,
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ja sam se prijavio, dobio ga
07:12
the only job I've ever applied for.
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i to je bio jedini posao na koji sam se ikad prijavio.
07:14
I spent 45 years teaching at Swarthmore,
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Proveo sam 45 godina poučavajući na Swarthmoreu,
07:18
an institution that had an enormous impact on the shape that my career took.
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instituciji koja je imala nevjerojatan utjecaj na moju karijeru.
07:22
And to just give one last example,
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I samo još jedan primjer,
07:24
I was giving a talk about some of my work in New York,
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držao sam izlaganje o svom radu u New Yorku,
07:28
and there was somebody in the audience who came up to me after my talk.
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i netko iz publike mi je došao nakon toga.
07:32
He introduced himself.
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Predstavio se.
07:34
He said, "My name is Chris.
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Rekao je, "Zovem se Chris.
07:35
Would you like to give a talk at TED?"
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Biste li željeli održati izlaganje za TED?"
07:39
And my response was, "What's TED?"
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Moj odgovor je bio, "Što je TED?"
07:43
Well, I mean, he told me,
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Pa, mislim, rekao mi je,
07:45
and TED then wasn't what it is now.
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TED tada još nije bio ono što je danas.
07:49
But in the intervening years,
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Ali narednih godina,
07:50
the talks I've given at TED have been watched
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izlaganja koja sam održao na TED-u pogledalo je
07:53
by more than 20 million people.
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više od 20 milijuna ljudi.
07:56
So the conclusion is, I'm a lucky man.
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Dakle, zaključak je da sam veliki srećković.
07:58
I'm lucky about my marriage.
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Imao sam sreće u braku.
08:00
I'm lucky about my education.
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Imao sam sreće u obrazovanju.
08:02
I'm lucky about my career.
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Imao sam sreće u karijeri.
08:04
And I'm lucky to have had a platform and a voice at something like TED.
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I imao sam sreće što sam dobio platformu i priliku na nečem poput TED-a.
08:10
Did I deserve the success I've had?
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Jesam li zaslužio toliki uspjeh?
08:12
Sure I deserve that success,
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Naravno da jesam,
08:14
just as you probably deserve your success.
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kao što i vi vjerojatno zaslužujete svoj uspjeh.
08:17
But lots of people also deserve successes like ours
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Ali mnogo ljudi zaslužuje jednaki uspjeh,
08:22
who haven't had it.
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ali ga nisu dobili.
08:25
So do people get what they deserve?
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Dakle, dobiju li ljudi ono što zaslužuju?
08:28
Is society just?
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Je li društvo pravedno?
08:31
Of course not.
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Naravno da nije.
08:32
Working hard and playing by the rules is just no guarantee of anything.
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Marljivost i igranje po pravilima vam ne garantiraju ništa.
08:38
If we appreciate the inevitability of this kind of injustice
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Ako priznamo neizbježnost ove vrste nepravde
08:43
and the centrality of good fortune,
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i središnju važnost sreće,
08:45
we might ask ourselves
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mogli bismo se zapitati
08:48
what responsibilities do we have
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kakvu odgovornost imamo
08:50
to the people we are now celebrating as heroes in this time of the pandemic
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prema onima koje sada slavimo kao heroje u doba pandemije
08:56
when a serious illness befalls their family
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kad ozbiljna bolest zadesi članove njihove obitelji
08:59
to make sure that they remain whole and their lives aren't ruined
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kako bismo se pobrinuli da ostanu cijeli i da im život ne uništi
09:03
by the cost of dealing with the illness?
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nošenje s bolešću?
09:07
What do we owe people who struggle,
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Što dugujemo ljudima koji se muče,
09:11
work hard and are less lucky than we are?
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teško rade i nisu toliko sretni kao mi?
09:15
About a half century ago,
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Prije otprilike pola stoljeća,
09:17
the philosopher John Rawls wrote a book called "A Theory of Justice,"
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filozof John Rawls napisao je knjigu "Teorija pravde"
09:21
and in that book, he introduced a concept that he called "the veil of ignorance."
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u kojoj je uveo koncept koji je nazvao "velom neznanja."
09:26
The question he posed was:
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Postavio je pitanje:
09:28
If you didn't know what your position in society was going to be,
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da ne znate koji ćete položaj imati u društvu,
09:34
what kind of a society would you want to create?
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kakvo biste društvo željeli stvoriti?
09:38
And what he suggested
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Predložio je
09:39
is that when we don't know whether we're going to enter society
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da kad nismo sigurni hoćemo li ući u društvo
09:43
at the top or at the bottom,
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na vrhu ili na dnu,
09:44
what we want is a society that is pretty damn equal,
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onda želimo društvo koje je dobrano ravnopravno,
09:48
so that even the unlucky
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kako bi čak i najveći pehisti
09:50
will be able to live decent, meaningful and satisfying lives.
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mogli živjeti pristojne, smislene i zadovoljavajuće živote.
09:55
So bring this back, all of you lucky, successful people, to your communities,
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Pa proširite ovo, svi vi sretni, uspješni ljudi, vašim zajednicama.
10:01
and do what you can to make sure that we honor and take care of
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Učinite što možete da se uvjerite da poštujemo i brinemo se
10:08
people who are just as deserving of success as we are,
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za ljude koji zaslužuju uspjeh jednako koliko i mi,
10:12
but just not as lucky.
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ali naprosto nemaju sreće.
10:14
Thank you.
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Hvala vam.
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