What role does luck play in your life? | Barry Schwartz

Prevoditelj: Leona Grujić Recezent: Sanda Liker

Hello, everybody.

Pozdrav svima.

I'm honored to be here to talk to you,

Čast mi je biti ovdje i razgovarati s vama,

and what I'm going to talk about today is luck and justice

a govorit ću o pravdi i sreći

and the relation between them.

i vezi između toga dvoga.

Some years ago,

Prije nekoliko godina

a former student of mine called me

nazvao me bivši učenik

to talk about his daughter.

kako bi razgovarao o svojoj kćeri.

It turns out his daughter was a high school senior,

Njegova kćer je tada bila maturantica

was seriously interested in applying to Swarthmore,

i ozbiljno je razmišljala o upisu na Swarthmore,

where I taught,

gdje sam ja podučavao

and he wanted to get my sense of whether she would get in.

pa ga je zanimalo mislim li da bi mogla upasti.

Swarthmore is an extremely hard school to get into.

Iznimno je teško upasti na Swarthmore.

So I said, "Well, tell me about her."

Pa sam mu rekao, "Pa, pričaj mi o njoj."

And he told me about her,

I on mi je počeo pričati

what her grades were like, her board scores,

o njezinim ocjenama i sportskim uspjesima,

her extracurricular activities.

o njenim izvannastavnim aktivnostima.

And she just sounded like a superstar,

I zvučalo je kao da je superzvijezda,

wonderful, wonderful kid.

čudo od djeteta.

So I said, "She sounds fabulous.

Pa sam rekao, "Ona zvuči fantastično.

She sounds like just the kind of student

Zvuči baš kao učenica

that Swarthmore would love to have."

kakvu bi Swarthmore želio."

And so he said, "Well, does that mean that she'll get in?"

Na to me on upitao, "Pa, znači li to da će ona upasti?"

And I said, "No.

I ja sam rekao, "Ne."

There just aren't enough spots in the Swarthmore class

Jednostavno nema dovoljno slobodnih mjesta na Swarthmoreu

for everybody who's good.

za sve dobre učenike.

There aren't enough spots at Harvard or Yale or Princeton or Stanford.

Nema dovoljno mjesta na Harvardu, ni Yaleu, ni Princetonu, ni Stanfordu.

There aren't enough spots at Google or Amazon or Apple.

Nema dovoljno mjesta u Googleu, Amazonu ili Appleu.

There aren't enough spots at the TED Conference.

Nema dovoljno mjesta na TED konferencijama.

There are an awful lot of good people,

Ima strašno puno nadarenih ljudi

and some of them are not going to make it."

i neki od njih neće uspjeti."

So he said, "Well, what are we supposed to do?"

Pa je on rekao, "Pa, što da radimo?"

And I said, "That's a very good question."

A ja sam rekao, "To je jako dobro pitanje."

What are we supposed to do?

Što bismo trebali napraviti?

And I know what colleges and universities have done.

Znam što su napravili fakulteti i sveučilišta.

In the interest of fairness,

Kako bi igrali fer,

what they've done is they've kept ratcheting up the standards

nastavili su podizati standarde,

because it doesn't seem fair to admit less qualified people

jer ne djeluje pošteno upisivati manje kvalificirane ljude,

and reject better qualified people,

a odbijati više kvalificirane ljude,

so you just keep raising the standards higher and higher

pa standardi samo rastu i rastu

until they're high enough that you can admit

dok toliko ne narastu da možete primiti

only the number of students that you can fit.

samo onoliko učenika koliko stane.

And this violates a lot of people's sense of what justice and fairness is.

A to mnogima djeluje nepravedno i nepošteno.

People in American society have different opinions

Pojedinci u američkom društvu imaju različita mišljenja

about what it means to say that some sort of process is just,

o tome što znači tvrditi da je određeni proces pravedan,

but I think there's one thing that pretty much everyone agrees on,

ali mislim da se svi slažu u jednom,

that in a just system, a fair system,

a to je da u pravednom, poštenom sustavu,

people get what they deserve.

ljudi dobiju ono što zaslužuju.

And what I was telling my former student

A ja sam govorio bivšem učeniku

is that when it comes to college admissions,

da kad su u pitanju upisi na fakultet,

it just isn't true that people get what they deserve.

naprosto nije istina da ljudi dobiju što zaslužuju.

Some people get what they deserve, and some people don't,

Neki dobiju što zaslužuju, a neki ne,

and that's just the way it is.

i to je naprosto tako.

When you ratchet up requirements as colleges have done,

Kad podignete standarde kao što su to učinili fakulteti,

what you do is you create a crazy competition

zapravo stvarate nemilosrdno natjecanje

among high school kids,

među srednjoškolcima,

because it's not adequate to be good,

jer nije dovoljno biti dobar,

it's not adequate to be good enough,

nije dovoljno biti dovoljno dobar,

you have to be better than everybody else who is also applying.

morate biti bolji od svih ostalih koji se također prijavljuju.

And what this has done,

A to je stvorilo,

or what this has contributed to,

ili je doprinijelo

is a kind of epidemic of anxiety and depression

nekoj vrsti epidemije anksioznosti i depresije

that is just crushing our teenagers.

koja slama naše tinejdžere.

We are wrecking a generation with this kind of competition.

Uništavamo čitavu generaciju ovim nemilosrdnim natjecanjem.

As I was thinking about this,

Dok sam razmišljao o tome,

it occurred to me there's a way to fix this problem.

sinulo mi je da postoji način kako riješiti problem.

And here's what we could do:

Evo što bismo mogli učiniti.

when people apply to college,

Kad se ljudi prijave na fakultet,

we distinguish between the applicants who are good enough to be successful

odvajamo one koji su dovoljno dobri da budu uspješni

and the ones who aren't,

od onih koji to nisu,

and we reject the ones who aren't good enough to be successful,

i odbijamo one koji nisu dovoljno dobri da budu uspješni,

and then we take all of the others, and we put their names in a hat,

a onda uzmemo sve ostale, stavimo njihova imena u šešir,

and we just pick them out at random

nasumično izaberemo neke od njih

and admit them.

i odobrimo im upis.

In other words, we do college admissions by lottery,

Drugim riječima, vodimo upis na fakultet kao lutriju,

and maybe we do job offers at tech companies by lottery,

a možda vodimo i zapošljavanje u tech tvrtkama kao lutriju,

and -- perish the thought --

I - ne dao Bog -

maybe we even make decisions about who gets invited to talk at TED

možda čak i odlučujemo koga pozvati na TED

by lottery.

lutrijom.

Now, don't misunderstand me,

Nemojte me krivo shvatiti,

a lottery like this is not going to eliminate the injustice.

lutrija neće eliminirati nepravdu.

There will still be plenty of people who don't get what they deserve.

Još uvijek će biti mnogo ljudi koji neće dobiti što zaslužuju.

But at least it's honest.

Ali bar ćemo biti iskreni.

It reveals the injustice for what it is instead of pretending otherwise,

Razotkrit ćemo nepravdu umjesto da je pokušavamo sakriti,

and it punctures the incredible pressure balloon

a to će i probušiti balon nevjerojatnog pritiska

that our high school kids are now living under.

u kojem sada žive naši školarci.

So why is it that this perfectly reasonable proposal,

Zašto se onda o ovom savršeno razumnom prijedlogu,

if I do say so myself,

ako to mogu reći,

doesn't get any serious discussion?

uopće ozbiljno ne razgovara?

I think I know why.

Mislim da znam zašto.

I think it's that we hate the idea

Mislim da je to zato što mrzimo ideju

that really important things in life might happen by luck or by chance,

da stvarno važne stvari u životu mogu biti rezultat sreće ili slučajnosti,

that really important things in our lives are not under our control.

da stvarno važne stvari u životu nisu pod našom kontrolom.

I hate that idea.

I ja mrzim tu ideju.

It's not surprising that people hate that idea,

Ne iznenađuje da ljudi mrze tu ideju,

but it simply is the way things are.

ali to je naprosto kako stvari stoje.

First of all, college admissions already is a lottery.

Prvo, upisi na fakultet već jesu lutrija.

It's just that the admissions officers pretend that it isn't.

Samo se oni zaduženi za upise prave da nije tako.

So let's be honest about it.

Budimo iskreni.

And second,

Drugo,

I think if we appreciated that it was a lottery,

mislim da ako bismo prihvatili da to jest lutrija,

it would also get us to acknowledge the importance of good fortune

to bi nam omogućilo da priznamo važnost sreće

in almost every one of our lives.

u životu svakoga od nas.

Take me.

Uzmite mene.

Almost all the most significant events in my life have occurred,

Gotovo svi najznačajniji događaji u mom životu bili su

to a large degree,

u velikom dijelu

as a result of good luck.

rezultat čiste sreće.

When I was in seventh grade, my family left New York

Kad sam bio u sedmom razredu, moja je obitelj napustila New York

and went to Westchester County.

i preselila se u Westchester County.

Right at the beginning of school,

Baš na početku školske godine,

I met a lovely young girl who became my friend,

sreo sam predivnu djevojčicu koja je postala moja prijateljica,

then she became my best friend,

pa najbolja prijateljica,

then she became my girlfriend

pa moja djevojka

and then she became my wife.

i naposljetku moja žena.

Happily, she's been my wife now

Nasreću, moja je žena

for 52 years.

već 52 godine.

I had very little to do with this. This was a lucky accident.

Ja nisam imao ništa s time. To je bila sretna slučajnost.

I went off to college,

Otišao sam na fakultet

and in my first semester, I signed up for a class in introduction to psychology.

i na prvom semestru upisao uvod u psihologiju.

I didn't even know what psychology was,

Nisam znao ni što je psihologija,

but it fit into my schedule and it met requirements,

ali uklapalo mi se u raspored i ispunjavalo sve uvjete

so I took it.

pa sam to upisao.

And by luck, the class was taught

Nasreću, kolegij je predavao

by a superstar introductory psychology teacher, a legend.

fenomenalan profesor psihologije, legenda.

Because of that, I became a psychology major.

Zbog toga sam upisao psihologiju.

Went off to graduate school.

Otišao na diplomski.

I was finishing up.

Završavao sam studij

A friend of mine who taught at Swarthmore decided

kad je prijatelj koji je predavao na Swarthmoreu odlučio

he didn't want to be a professor anymore,

da više ne želi biti profesor,

and so he quit to go to medical school.

pa je dao otkaz i otišao u medicinsku školu.

The job that he occupied opened up,

Njegovo radno mjesto se ispraznilo,

I applied for it, I got it,

ja sam se prijavio, dobio ga

the only job I've ever applied for.

i to je bio jedini posao na koji sam se ikad prijavio.

I spent 45 years teaching at Swarthmore,

Proveo sam 45 godina poučavajući na Swarthmoreu,

an institution that had an enormous impact on the shape that my career took.

instituciji koja je imala nevjerojatan utjecaj na moju karijeru.

And to just give one last example,

I samo još jedan primjer,

I was giving a talk about some of my work in New York,

držao sam izlaganje o svom radu u New Yorku,

and there was somebody in the audience who came up to me after my talk.

i netko iz publike mi je došao nakon toga.

He introduced himself.

Predstavio se.

He said, "My name is Chris.

Rekao je, "Zovem se Chris.

Would you like to give a talk at TED?"

Biste li željeli održati izlaganje za TED?"

And my response was, "What's TED?"

Moj odgovor je bio, "Što je TED?"

Well, I mean, he told me,

Pa, mislim, rekao mi je,

and TED then wasn't what it is now.

TED tada još nije bio ono što je danas.

But in the intervening years,

Ali narednih godina,

the talks I've given at TED have been watched

izlaganja koja sam održao na TED-u pogledalo je

by more than 20 million people.

više od 20 milijuna ljudi.

So the conclusion is, I'm a lucky man.

Dakle, zaključak je da sam veliki srećković.

I'm lucky about my marriage.

Imao sam sreće u braku.

I'm lucky about my education.

Imao sam sreće u obrazovanju.

I'm lucky about my career.

Imao sam sreće u karijeri.

And I'm lucky to have had a platform and a voice at something like TED.

I imao sam sreće što sam dobio platformu i priliku na nečem poput TED-a.

Did I deserve the success I've had?

Jesam li zaslužio toliki uspjeh?

Sure I deserve that success,

Naravno da jesam,

just as you probably deserve your success.

kao što i vi vjerojatno zaslužujete svoj uspjeh.

But lots of people also deserve successes like ours

Ali mnogo ljudi zaslužuje jednaki uspjeh,

who haven't had it.

ali ga nisu dobili.

So do people get what they deserve?

Dakle, dobiju li ljudi ono što zaslužuju?

Is society just?

Je li društvo pravedno?

Of course not.

Naravno da nije.

Working hard and playing by the rules is just no guarantee of anything.

Marljivost i igranje po pravilima vam ne garantiraju ništa.

If we appreciate the inevitability of this kind of injustice

Ako priznamo neizbježnost ove vrste nepravde

and the centrality of good fortune,

i središnju važnost sreće,

we might ask ourselves

mogli bismo se zapitati

what responsibilities do we have

kakvu odgovornost imamo

to the people we are now celebrating as heroes in this time of the pandemic

prema onima koje sada slavimo kao heroje u doba pandemije

when a serious illness befalls their family

kad ozbiljna bolest zadesi članove njihove obitelji

to make sure that they remain whole and their lives aren't ruined

kako bismo se pobrinuli da ostanu cijeli i da im život ne uništi

by the cost of dealing with the illness?

nošenje s bolešću?

What do we owe people who struggle,

Što dugujemo ljudima koji se muče,

work hard and are less lucky than we are?

teško rade i nisu toliko sretni kao mi?

About a half century ago,

Prije otprilike pola stoljeća,

the philosopher John Rawls wrote a book called "A Theory of Justice,"

filozof John Rawls napisao je knjigu "Teorija pravde"

and in that book, he introduced a concept that he called "the veil of ignorance."

u kojoj je uveo koncept koji je nazvao "velom neznanja."

The question he posed was:

Postavio je pitanje:

If you didn't know what your position in society was going to be,

da ne znate koji ćete položaj imati u društvu,

what kind of a society would you want to create?

kakvo biste društvo željeli stvoriti?

And what he suggested

Predložio je

is that when we don't know whether we're going to enter society

da kad nismo sigurni hoćemo li ući u društvo

at the top or at the bottom,

na vrhu ili na dnu,

what we want is a society that is pretty damn equal,

onda želimo društvo koje je dobrano ravnopravno,

so that even the unlucky

kako bi čak i najveći pehisti

will be able to live decent, meaningful and satisfying lives.

mogli živjeti pristojne, smislene i zadovoljavajuće živote.

So bring this back, all of you lucky, successful people, to your communities,

Pa proširite ovo, svi vi sretni, uspješni ljudi, vašim zajednicama.

and do what you can to make sure that we honor and take care of

Učinite što možete da se uvjerite da poštujemo i brinemo se

people who are just as deserving of success as we are,

za ljude koji zaslužuju uspjeh jednako koliko i mi,

but just not as lucky.

ali naprosto nemaju sreće.

Thank you.

Hvala vam.