Pavan Sukhdev: Put a value on nature!

Prevoditelj: Igor Pureta Recezent: Ivan Stamenković

I'm here to talk to you

Ovdje sam kako bih vam pričao

about the economic invisibility of nature.

o ekonomskoj nevidljivosti prirode.

The bad news

Loša vijest je

is that mother nature's back office isn't working yet,

da ured majke prirode još nije proradio

so those invoices don't get issued.

pa svi računi ne prolaze.

But we need to do something about this problem.

Moramo nešto učiniti po ovom problemu.

I began my life as a markets professional

Počeo sam svoj život kao stručnjak za tržište

and continued to take an interest,

i to me nastavilo zanimati,

but most of my recent effort

no većina mog nedavnog rada

has been looking at the value

je bila promatranje vrijednosti

of what comes to human beings from nature,

onoga što ljudima dolazi iz prirode,

and which doesn't get priced by the markets.

i što nema tržišne cijene.

A project called TEEB was started in 2007,

Projekt zvan TEEB je započet 2007.,

and it was launched by a group of environment ministers

i pokrenut je od grupe ministara okoliša

of the G8+5.

grupe G8+5.

And their basic inspiration

Osnovna inspiracija

was a stern review of Lord Stern.

je bio strog osvrt Lorda Sterna.

They asked themselves a question:

Pitali su se:

If economics could make such a convincing case

Ako ekonomija može izvesti tako uvjerljiv

for early action on climate change,

slučaj za rano djelovanje po pitanju klimatskih promjena,

well why can't the same be done for conservation?

zašto ne može isto biti učinjeno za očuvanje?

Why can't an equivalent case be made

Zašto isti slučaj ne može

for nature?

biti napravljen za prirodu?

And the answer is: Yeah, it can.

Odgovor je: Da, može.

But it's not that straightforward.

Samo ne toliko izravno.

Biodiversity, the living fabric of this planet, is not a gas.

Bioraznolikost, živo tkanje ovog planeta, nije plin.

It exists in many layers,

Postoji u mnogo slojeva,

ecosystems, species and genes across many scales --

ekosustavi, vrste i geni kroz mnogo mjera, --

international, national, local, community --

internacionalno, nacionalno, lokalno, u zajednici --

and doing for nature

a raditi za prirodu

what Lord Stern and his team did for nature is not that easy.

ono što su radili Lord Stern i njegov tim za prirodu, nije lagano.

And yet, we began.

No, počeli smo.

We began the project with an interim report,

Počeli smo projekt privremenim izvještajem

which quickly pulled together

koji je brzo prikupio

a lot of information that had been collected on the subject

mnogo informacija koje su skupljene na tu temu

by many, many researchers.

uz pomoć velikog broja istraživača.

And amongst our compiled results

U tim zbirnim rezultatima

was the startling revelation

bilo je potresno otkrivenje

that, in fact, we were losing natural capital --

da, ustvari, gubimo prirodni kapital --

the benefits that flow from nature to us.

povlastice koje teku od prirode do nas.

We were losing it at an extraordinary rate --

Gubili smo ih iznimnom brzinom --

in fact, of the order of two to four trillion dollars-worth

ustvari, u iznosu od 2 - 4 trilijuna dolara

of natural capital.

vrijednosti prirodnog kapitala.

This came out in 2008,

Ovo je izašlo 2008.,

which was, of course, around the time that the banking crisis had shown

što je bilo u vrijeme kada se bankarska kriza pojavila,

that we had lost financial capital

kada smo izgubili financijski kapital

of the order of two and a half trillion dollars.

u iznosu 2,5 bilijuna dolara.

So this was comparable in size to that kind of loss.

Dakle bilo je usporedivo u količini.

We then have gone on since

Otada smo

to present for [the] international community,

prezentirali međunarodnoj zajednici,

for governments,

vladama,

for local governments and for business

lokalnim vladama i poslovima

and for people, for you and me,

ljudima, meni i vama,

a whole slew of reports, which were presented at the U.N. last year,

cijelo mnoštvo izvještaja koji su prikazani UN-u prošle godine,

which address the economic invisibility of nature

koji govore o ekonomskoj nevidljivosti prirode

and describe what can be done to solve it.

i opisuje što se može napraviti po tome.

What is this about?

O čemu se ovdje radi?

A picture that you're familiar with --

Slika s kojom ste upoznati --

the Amazon rainforests.

prašume Amazone.

It's a massive store of carbon, it's an amazing store of biodiversity,

Masovno skladište ugljika, zadivljujuće mjesto bioraznolikosti,

but what people don't really know

no ono što ljudi ne znaju

is this also is a rain factory.

je da je također i tvornica kiše.

Because the northeastern trade winds,

Jer sjeveroistočni vjetrovi,

as they go over the Amazonas,

dok prelaze preko Amazone,

effectively gather the water vapor.

efektivno skupljaju vodenu paru.

Something like 20 billion tons per day of water vapor

Otprilike 20 milijardi tona na dan vodene pare

is sucked up by the northeastern trade winds,

koja je uvučena u sjeveroistočne vjetrove

and eventually precipitates in the form of rain

i na kraju se pojavi u obliku kiše

across the La Plata Basin.

kod La Plata Basina.

This rainfall cycle, this rainfall factory,

Ciklus padanja kiše, ova tvornica kiše,

effectively feeds an agricultural economy

hrani poljoprivrednu ekonomiju

of the order of 240 billion dollars-worth

u iznosu od 240 milijardi dolara

in Latin America.

u Latinskoj Americi.

But the question arises: Okay, so how much

Postavlja se pitanje: Koliko

do Uruguay, Paraguay, Argentina

Urugvaj, Paragvaj, Argentina

and indeed the state of Mato Grosso in Brazil

i područje Mato Grosso u Brazilu

pay for that vital input to that economy

plaćaju za taj ključni doprinos ekonomiji

to the state of Amazonas, which produces that rainfall?

području Amazona, koje proizvodi tu kišu?

And the answer is zilch,

Odgovor je ništa,

exactly zero.

ravno nula.

That's the economic invisibility of nature.

To je ekonomska nevidljivost prirode.

That can't keep going on,

To se ne može nastaviti,

because economic incentives and disincentives are very powerful.

jer ti ekonomski poticaji su vrlo moćni.

Economics has become the currency of policy.

Ekonomija je postala valutom politike.

And unless we address

I ukoliko ne obratimo pozornost

this invisibility,

na tu nevidljivost,

we are going to get the results that we are seeing,

dobiti ćemo rezultate koje vidimo,

which is a gradual degradation and loss

koji su postepeno degradiranje i gubitak

of this valuable natural asset.

vrijednih prirodnih resursa.

It's not just about the Amazonas, or indeed about rainforests.

Ne radi se samo o Amazoni ili o prašumama.

No matter what level you look at,

Kako god da pogledate,

whether it's at the ecosystem level or at the species level or at the genetic level,

bilo na razini ekosustava, vrste ili genetike,

we see the same problem again and again.

vidimo isti problem svaki put iznova.

So rainfall cycle and water regulation by rainforests

Ciklus kiše i regulacije vode u prašumama

at an ecosystem level.

na razini ekosustava.

At the species level,

Na razini vrste,

it's been estimated that insect-based pollination,

je procjenjeno da je oprašivanje insekata,

bees pollinating fruit and so on,

oprašivanje pčela i slično

is something like 190 billion dollars-worth.

vrijedno otprilike 190 milijardi dolara.

That's something like eight percent

To je oko 8%

of the total agricultural output globally.

potpunog globalnog poljoprivrednog prometa.

It completely passes below the radar screen.

Prolazi ispod radara u cijelosti.

But when did a bee actually ever give you an invoice?

No kad vam je pčela ikada dala fakturu?

Or for that matter, if you look at the genetic level,

Ili, ako gledate na genetskoj razini,

60 percent of medicines were prospected,

60% lijekova koji se prodaju,

were found first as molecules in a rainforest or a reef.

su prvo nađeni kao molekule u prašumi ili na grebenu.

Once again, most of that doesn't get paid.

Još jednom, većina toga se ne plaća.

And that brings me to another aspect of this,

To me dovodi do sljedećeg aspekta,

which is, to whom should this get paid?

koji je, kome bi se trebalo platiti?

That genetic material

Taj genetski materijal

probably belonged, if it could belong to anyone,

je vjerojatno pripadao, ako je mogao pripadati bilo kome,

to a local community of poor people

lokalnoj zajednici siromašnih ljudi

who parted with the knowledge that helped the researchers to find the molecule,

koji su odvojili znanje koje je pomoglo znanstvenicima da nađu

which then became the medicine.

molekulu koja je tada postala lijek.

They were the ones that didn't get paid.

Oni su ti kojima nije plaćeno.

And if you look at the species level,

Ako gledate na razini vrsta,

you saw about fish.

recimo nešto o ribama.

Today, the depletion of ocean fisheries is so significant

Danas je trošenje oceanskih izvora ribe toliko značajno

that effectively it is effecting the ability of the poor,

da uspješno utječe na mogućnost siromašnih,

the artisanal fisher folk

zanatskih ribara,

and those who fish for their own livelihoods,

i onih koji ribare za svoj život,

to feed their families.

da nahrane svoje obitelji.

Something like a billion people depend on fish,

Oko milijardu ljudi ovisi o ribi,

the quantity of fish in the oceans.

količini ribe u oceanima.

A billion people depend on fish

Milijardu ljudi ovisi o ribi

for their main source for animal protein.

kao glavnom izvoru životinjskih proteina.

And at this rate at which we are losing fish,

Brzina kojom gubimo ribu,

it is a human problem of enormous dimensions,

postaje ljudski problem ogromnih dimenzija,

a health problem

zdravstveni problem

of a kind we haven't seen before.

kakav još nismo vidjeli.

And finally, at the ecosystem level,

Konačno, razina ekosustava,

whether it's flood prevention or drought control provided by the forests,

bilo prevencija poplava ili suša pomoću šuma,

or whether it is the ability of poor farmers

bilo mogućnost siromašnih farmera

to go out and gather leaf litter

da skupljaju lišće

for their cattle and goats,

za svoju stoku i koze,

or whether it's the ability of their wives

ili mogućnost njihovih žena

to go and collect fuel wood from the forest,

da skupljaju drvo za ogrijev iz šuma,

it is actually the poor

ustvari su siromašni oni

who depend most on these ecosystem services.

koji najviše ovise o uslugama ekosustava.

We did estimates in our study

Napravili smo izračune u našim istraživanjima

that for countries like Brazil, India and Indonesia,

za države poput Brazila, Indije i Indonezije,

even though ecosystem services --

čak kroz usluge ekosustava --

these benefits that flow from nature to humanity for free --

te povlastice koje putuju od prirode do čovječanstva besplatno -

they're not very big in percentage terms of GDP --

nisu velikih postotaka u omjerima BDP-a --

two, four, eight, 10, 15 percent --

2, 4, 8, 10, 15% --

but in these countries, if we measure how much they're worth to the poor,

no u tim državama, ako mjerimo koliko je vrijedno siromašnima,

the answers are more like

odgovori više naginju prema

45 percent, 75 percent, 90 percent.

45, 75, 90%.

That's the difference.

To je razlika.

Because these are important benefits for the poor.

Jer to su važne povlastice za siromašne.

And you can't really have a proper model for development

I ne možete imati prave modele za razvoj

if at the same time you're destroying or allowing

ako u isto vrijeme uništavate ili dopuštate

the degradation of the very asset, the most important asset,

degradaciju upravo tih resursa, najvažnijih resursa,

which is your development asset,

koji su vaši resursi za razvoj,

that is ecological infrastructure.

koji su ekološka infrastruktura.

How bad can things get?

Koliko loše može biti?

Well here a picture of something called the mean species abundance.

Ovdje je slika nečega što se zove obilje vrsta.

It's basically a measure

U osnovi je mjera

of how many tigers, toads, ticks or whatever on average

koliko tigrova, žaba, ili čega već u

of biomass of various species are around.

prosjeku biomase raznih vrsta postoji.

The green represents the percentage.

Zeleno predstavlja postotak.

If you start green, it's like 80 to 100 percent.

Ako počinjete zeleno, radi se o 80 - 100%.

If it's yellow, it's 40 to 60 percent.

Ako je žuto, radi se o 40 - 60%.

And these are percentages versus the original state, so to speak,

Ovo su postoci u omjeru s originalnim stanjem,

the pre-industrial era, 1750.

predindustrijska era, 1750.

Now I'm going to show you

Sada ću vam pokazati

how business as usual will affect this.

kako bi posao obično utjecao na ovo.

And just watch the change in colors

Gledajte promjene u bojama

in India, China, Europe,

u Indiji, Kini, Europi,

sub-Saharan Africa

sub-Saharskoj Africi

as we move on and consume global biomass

kako se krećemo i konzumiramo globalnu biomasu

at a rate which is actually not going to be able to sustain us.

brzinom kojom nećemo moći sebe održati.

See that again.

Pogledajte ponovo.

The only places that remain green -- and that's not good news --

Jedino mjesto koje ostaje zeleno -- a to nije dobra vijest --

is, in fact, places like the Gobi Desert,

su ustvari mjesta poput pustinje Gobi,

like the tundra and like the Sahara.

poput tundre i Sahare.

But that doesn't help because there were very few species

To ne pomaže jer je tamo vrlo malo vrsta

and volume of biomass there in the first place.

i količine biomase.

This is the challenge.

Ovo je izazov.

The reason this is happening

Razlog zašto se ovo događa

boils down, in my mind, to one basic problem,

se, u mojoj glavi, svodi na osnovni problem,

which is our inability to perceive the difference

je da nismo sposobni uvidjeti razliku

between public benefits

između javnog dobra

and private profits.

i privatnog profita.

We tend to constantly ignore public wealth

Konstantno ignoriramo javno bogatstvo

simply because it is in the common wealth,

samo zato što je zajedničko,

it's common goods.

zajedničko dobro.

And here's an example from Thailand

Ovo je primjer iz Tajlanda

where we found that, because the value of a mangrove is not that much --

gdje smo pronašli da, jer cijena mangrova nije velika --

it's about $600 over the life of nine years that this has been measured --

oko 600 dolara tijekom 9 godina koliko se mjerilo --

compared to its value as a shrimp farm,

u usporedbi s vrijednošću farme kozica,

which is more like $9,600,

koja je oko 9.600 dolara,

there has been a gradual trend to deplete the mangroves

postoji postupni trend iscrpljivanja mangrova

and convert them to shrimp farms.

i pretvaranja u farme kozica.

But of course, if you look at exactly what those profits are,

Naravno, ako gledate koji su točno profiti,

almost 8,000 of those dollars

gotovo 8,000 dolara od toga

are, in fact, subsidies.

su subvencije.

So you compare the two sides of the coin

Dakle uspoređujete dvije strane novčića

and you find that it's more like 1,200 to 600.

i vidite da je profit više oko 1,200 do 600.

That's not that hard.

Nije toliko teško.

But on the other hand, if you start measuring,

No s druge strane, ako počnete mjeriti,

how much would it actually cost

koliko bi zapravo koštalo

to restore the land of the shrimp farm

da vratite tlo na kojem je farma kozica

back to productive use?

natrag u produktivne svrhe?

Once salt deposition and chemical deposition

Nakon što su sol i kemikalije

has had its effects,

imale svoj utjecaj,

that answer is more like $12,000 of cost.

odgovor je oko 12.000 dolara,

And if you see the benefits of the mangrove

Ako vidite prednosti mangrova

in terms of the storm protection and cyclone protection that you get

u razini obrane od oluja i ciklona koju dobijete

and in terms of the fisheries, the fish nurseries,

u razini ribolova i uzgajanja ribe,

that provide fish for the poor,

koje daju ribu siromašnima,

that answer is more like $11,000.

odgovor je oko 11.000 dolara.

So now look at the different lens.

Sada pogledajte kroz drugačije leće.

If you look at the lens of public wealth

Ako gledate kroz leće javnog bogatstva

as against the lens of private profits,

u suprotnosti s lećama privatnog profita,

you get a completely different answer,

dobijete potpuno nov odgovor,

which is clearly conservation makes more sense,

da čuvanje mangrova ima više smisla

and not destruction.

od uništavanja.

So is this just a story from South Thailand?

Dakle, ovo je samo priča s južnog Tajlanda?

Sorry, this is a global story.

Oprostite, ovo je globalna priča.

And here's what the same calculation looks like,

Ovako izgleda ista računica,

which was done recently -- well I say recently, over the last 10 years --

koja je izvedena nedavno -- kažem nedavno, mislim kroz 10 godina --

by a group called TRUCOST.

od grupe zvane TRUCOST.

And they calculated for the top 3,000 corporations,

Izračunali su za prvih 3.000 poduzeća

what are the externalities?

koje su eksternalije?

In other words, what are the costs of doing business as usual?

Odnosno, koliki je trošak uobičajenog poslovanja?

This is not illegal stuff, this is basically business as usual,

Ovo nisu ilegalne stvari, ovo je u osnovi samo posao,

which causes climate-changing emissions, which have an economic cost.

koji uzrokuje klimatske promjene, koje imaju ekonomsku cijenu.

It causes pollutants being issued, which have an economic cost,

Uzrokuje stvaranje zagađivača, koji imaju ekonomsku cijenu,

health cost and so on.

zdravstvenu cijenu, i tako dalje.

Use of freshwater.

Korištenje svježe vode.

If you drill water to make coke near a village farm,

Ako bušite za vodu kako bi napravili kolu u blizini seoske farme,

that's not illegal, but yes, it costs the community.

To nije ilegalno, ali košta zajednicu.

Can we stop this, and how?

Možemo li to zaustaviti i kako?

I think the first point to make is that we need to recognize natural capital.

Prvi cilj je prepoznati prirodni kapital.

Basically the stuff of life is natural capital,

U osnovi stvari koje život znače su prirodni kapital,

and we need to recognize and build that into our systems.

i moramo to prepoznati i ugraditi u sustave.

When we measure GDP

Kada mjerimo BDP

as a measure of economic performance at the national level,

kao mjeru ekonomske izvedbe na nacionalnoj razini,

we don't include our biggest asset at the country level.

ne uključujemo najveće resurse na razini države.

When we measure corporate performances,

Kada mjerimo učinak poduzeća,

we don't include our impacts on nature

ne uključujemo naš utjecaj na prirodu

and what our business costs society.

i koliko naš posao košta zajednicu.

That has to stop.

To mora stati.

In fact, this was what really inspired my interest in this phase.

Ustvari, to je upravo što je inspiriralo moj interes u ovoj fazi.

I began a project way back called the Green Accounting Project.

Davno sam počeo projekt koji se zvao Projekt zelenog računovodstva.

That was in the early 2000s

To je bilo u ranim 2000.-ima

when India was going gung-ho about GDP growth

kada je Indija išla na rast BDP-a

as the means forward --

kao sredstvo za napredak --

looking at China with its stellar growths of eight, nine, 10 percent

gledajući Kinu i njen rast od 8, 9, 10%

and wondering, why can we do the same?

i razmišljajući zašto mi ne možemo isto?

And a few friends of mine and I

Nekoliko mojih prijatelja i ja

decided this doesn't make sense.

smo odlučili da to nema smisla.

This is going to create more cost to society and more losses.

Ovo će stvoriti više troškova za društvo i više gubitaka.

So we decided to do a massive set of calculations

Odlučili smo napraviti ogroman set izračuna

and started producing green accounts for India and its states.

i počeli proizvoditi zelene račune za Indiju i njene pokrajine.

That's how my interests began

Tako je počeo moj interes

and went to the TEEB project.

i krenuo prema projektu TEEB.

Calculating this at the national level is one thing, and it has begun.

Računanje na nacionalnoj razini je jedna stvar i počelo je.

And the World Bank has acknowledged this

Svjetska banka je prepoznala ovo

and they've started a project called WAVES --

i počeli su projekt pod nazivom WAVES --

Wealth Accounting and Valuation of Ecosystem Services.

Računovodstvo bogatstva i procjena usluga ekosustava.

But calculating this at the next level,

No računanje na sljedećoj razini,

that means at the business sector level, is important.

znači na razini poslovnog sektora, je važno.

And actually we've done this with the TEEB project.

Zapravo smo ovo i napravili s TEEB-om

We've done this for a very difficult case,

Učinili smo ovo za težak slučaj,

which was for deforestation in China.

koji je bio deforestacija u Kini.

This is important, because in China in 1997,

Ovo je važno jer je u Kini 1997.,

the Yellow River actually went dry for nine months

Žuta rijeka presušila na 9 mjeseci

causing severe loss of agriculture output

uzrokujući velike gubitke poljoprivredi,

and pain and loss to society.

bol i gubitak društvu.

Just a year later the Yangtze flooded,

Godinu dana kasnije, Yangtze je poplavila,

causing something like 5,500 deaths.

uzrokujući oko 5.500 poginulih.

So clearly there was a problem with deforestation.

Očito je postojao problem sa deforestacijom.

It was associated largely with the construction industry.

Povezan uvelike s građevinskom industrijom.

And the Chinese government responded sensibly

Kineska vlada je odgovorila razumno

and placed a ban on felling.

i stavila zabranu na sječu.

A retrospective on 40 years

Pregled kroz 40 godina

shows that if we had accounted for these costs --

pokazuje da smo odgovarali za te troškove --

the cost of loss of topsoil,

troškove gubitka tla,

the cost of loss of waterways,

troškove gubitka vodenih puteva,

the lost productivity, the loss to local communities

gubitak produktivnosti, gubitak lokalne zajednice

as a result of all these factors,

kao rezultat svih tih faktora,

desertification and so on --

pustošenje i slično --

those costs are almost twice as much

koštaju gotovo dvostruko više nego

as the market price of timber.

tržišna cijena drva.

So in fact, the price of timber in the Beijing marketplace

Ustvari, cijena drva na tržištu u Pekingu

ought to have been three-times what it was

bi bila tri puta veća nego što je,

had it reflected the true pain and the costs

da je odražavala pravu cijenu i bol

to the society within China.

društva u Kini.

Of course, after the event one can be wise.

Naravno, nakon događaja, može se biti mudar.

The way to do this is to do it on a company basis,

Način na koji poduzeća mogu pomoći,

to take leadership forward,

jest da vodstvo razmišlja unaprijed

and to do it for as many important sectors which have a cost,

i isto učiniti za toliko važnih sektora koji imaju cijenu

and to disclose these answers.

i otkrivati odgovore.

Someone once asked me, "Who is better or worse,

Netko me jednom pitao: "Tko je bolji ili lošiji,

is it Unilever or is it P&G

Unilever ili P&G

when it comes to their impact on rainforests in Indonesia?"

kada je u pitanju utjecaj na prašume u Indoneziji?"

And I couldn't answer because neither of these companies,

Nisam mogao odgovoriti jer nijedna od njih

good though they are and professional though they are,

iako su profesionalne,

do not calculate or disclose their externalities.

ne računaju, ne otkrivaju svoje eksternalije.

But if we look at companies like PUMA --

No ako pogledamo tvrtke poput PUME --

Jochen Zeitz, their CEO and chairman,

Jochen Zeitz, njihov direktor,

once challenged me at a function,

me jednom izazvao na djelovanje,

saying that he's going to implement my project before I finish it.

govoreći da će implementirati moj projekt prije nego ga završim.

Well I think we kind of did it at the same time, but he's done it.

Mislim da smo završili u isto vrijeme, no napravio je to.

He's basically worked the cost to PUMA.

U osnovi je računao Pumine troškove.

Puma ima 2,7 milijardi dolara prometa,

PUMA has 2.7 billion dollars of turnover,

300 million dollars of profits,

300 milijuna dolara profita,

200 million dollars after tax,

200 milijuna dolara nakon poreza,

94 million dollars of externalities, cost to business.

94 milijuna dolara eksternalija, troškova poslu.

Now that's not a happy situation for them,

To nije dobra situacija za njih,

but they have the confidence and the courage

no imaju hrabrost i samouvjerenost

to come forward and say, "Here's what we are measuring.

da izađu i kažu: "Ovo je ono što mi mjerimo.

We are measuring it because we know

Mjerimo to jer znamo

that you cannot manage what you do not measure."

da ne možeš upravljati onime što ne mjeriš."

That's an example, I think, for us to look at

To je, rekao bih, primjer za nas da gledamo i

and for us to draw comfort from.

da vučemo pouku iz njega.

If more companies did this,

Kada bi više poduzeća radilo to,

and if more sectors engaged this as sectors,

i kada bi više sektora pridoneslo ovome kao sektori,

you could have analysts, business analysts,

mogli bi imati poslovne analitičare,

and you could have people like us and consumers and NGOs

i ljude poput nas i potrošače i nevladine udruge

actually look and compare the social performance of companies.

da zapravo pogledaju i usporede društvenu izvedbu poduzeća.

Today we can't yet do that, but I think the path is laid out.

Danas to još ne možemo, no mislim da je put popločen.

This can be done.

Ovo se može učiniti.

And I'm delighted that the Institute of Chartered Accountants in the U.K.

Drago mi je da je institut ovlaštenih računovođa u UK

has already set up a coalition to do this,

već složio koaliciju,

an international coalition.

međunarodnu koaliciju.

The other favorite, if you like, solution for me

Drugi favorit, rješenje za mene je

is the creation of green carbon markets.

stvaranje tržišta zelenog ugljika.

And by the way, these are my favorites --

Usput, ovo su mi favoriti --

externalities calculation and green carbon markets.

računanje eksternalija i tržište zelenog ugljika.

TEEB has more than a dozen separate groups of solutions

TEEB ima desetak drugačijih grupa rješenja

including protected area evaluation

uključujući procjenu zaštićenog područja

and payments for ecosystem services

i plaćanje za usluge ekosustava,

and eco-certification and you name it, but these are the favorites.

eko-certifikacija i slično, ali ovo su mi favoriti.

What's green carbon?

Što je zeleni ugljik?

Today what we have is basically a brown carbon marketplace.

Danas imamo tržište smeđeg ugljika.

It's about energy emissions.

Radi se o emisiji energije.

The European Union ETS is the main marketplace.

Trgovački sustav EU je glavno tržište.

It's not doing too well. We've over-issued.

Ne funkcionira. Prevelika je ponuda.

A bit like inflation: you over-issue currency,

Nešto kao inflacija: ponudite previše valute,

you get what you see, declining prices.

dobijete što vidite, smanjenje cijena.

But that's all about energy and industry.

No to je sve o energiji i industriji.

But what we're missing is also some other emissions

Propuštamo druge emisije

like black carbon, that is soot.

kao crni ugljik, koji je čađa.

What we're also missing is blue carbon,

Propuštamo i plavi ugljik,

which, by the way, is the largest store of carbon --

koji je, usput, najzastupljeniji ugljik --

more than 55 percent.

više od 55%.

Thankfully, the flux, in other words, the flow of emissions

Na sreću, tok emisija

from the ocean to the atmosphere and vice versa,

iz oceana do atmosfere i obrnuto,

is more or less balanced.

je više manje balansiran.

In fact, what's being absorbed

Ono što se upija

is something like 25 percent of our emissions,

je oko 25% naših emisija,

which then leads to acidification

koje vode do kiselosti

or lower alkalinity in oceans.

ili niske lužnatosti u oceanima.

More of that in a minute.

Više o tome za minutu.

And finally, there's deforestation,

I na kraju, postoji deforestacija,

and there's emission of methane

i emisija metana

from agriculture.

iz poljoprivrede.

Green carbon,

Zeleni ugljik,

which is the deforestation and agricultural emissions,

koji je deforestacija i emisije poljoprivrede,

and blue carbon

i plavi ugljik

together comprise 25 percent of our emissions.

zajedno čine 25% naših emisija.

We have the means already in our hands,

Imamo već sredstva u našim rukama,

through a structure, through a mechanism, called REDD Plus --

kroz strukturu, mehanizam zvan REDD Plus -

a scheme for the reduced emissions

shema za reduciranje emisija

from deforestation and forest degradation.

iz deforestacija i degradacija šuma.

And already Norway has contributed a billion dollars each

Norveška je već doprinijela s milijardu dolara

towards Indonesia and Brazil

u Indoneziji i Brazilu

to implement this Red Plus scheme.

da primjene shemu Red Plus.

So we actually have some movement forward.

Dakle imamo kretanje prema naprijed.

But the thing is to do a lot more of that.

Stvar je da nam treba puno više toga.

Will this solve the problem? Will economics solve everything?

Hoće li ovo riješiti problem? Hoće li ekonomija riješiti sve?

Well I'm afraid not.

Bojim se da ne.

There is an area that is the oceans, coral reefs.

Postoji područje u oceanima, koraljni grebeni.

As you can see,

Kao što možete vidjeti,

they cut across the entire globe

ima ih po cijelom planetu

all the way from Micronesia

od Mikronezije

across Indonesia, Malaysia, India, Madagascar

preko Indonezije, Malazije, Indije, Madagaskara

and to the West of the Caribbean.

do zapadnih Kariba.

These red dots, these red areas,

Ove crvene točke, crvena područja,

basically provide the food and livelihood

u osnovi daju hranu i život

for more than half a billion people.

više od pola milijarde ljudi.

So that's almost an eighth of society.

To je gotovo osmina društva.

And the sad thing is that, as these coral reefs are lost --

Tužna vijest je, kako su ti grebeni izgubljeni --

and scientists tell us

a znanstvenici nam govore da bilo koja

that any level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere above 350 parts per million

količina ugljičnog dioksida u atmosferi iznad 350 dijelova u milijun

is too dangerous for the survival of these reefs --

je preopasna za opstanak ovih grebena --

we are not only risking the extinction

ne riskiramo samo smrt cijele vrste

of the entire coral species, the warm water corals,

koralja, koralja toplih voda,

we're not only risking a fourth of all fish species which are in the oceans,

ne riskiramo samo četvrtinu svih riba u oceanu,

but we are risking the very lives and livelihoods

već riskiramo živote i dobrobit

of more than 500 million people

više od 500 milijuna ljudi

who live in the developing world in poor countries.

koji žive u tim državama u razvoju.

So in selecting targets of 450 parts per million

Izborom cilja od 450 dijelova u milijun

and selecting two degrees at the climate negotiations,

i dva stupnja na klimatskim raspravama,

what we have done is we've made an ethical choice.

ono što smo učinili je da smo napravili etičan izbor.

We've actually kind of made an ethical choice in society

Napravili smo etičan izbor u društvu

to not have coral reefs.

da nemamo koraljne grebene.

Well what I will say to you in parting

Ono što ću vam reći u odlasku

is that we may have done that.

je da smo mogli to napraviti.

Let's think about it and what it means,

Razmislimo o onome što to znači

but please, let's not do more of that.

no molim vas, ne više od toga.

Because mother nature only has that much

Jer majka priroda ima samo određenu

in ecological infrastructure and that much natural capital.

ekološku infrastrukturu i prirodnog kapitala.

I don't think we can afford too much of such ethical choices.

Mislim da ne možemo izabrati toliko etičan izbor.

Thank you.

Hvala vam.

(Applause)

(Pljesak)