What causes an economic recession? - Richard Coffin

Prevodilac: Ivana Krivokuća Lektor: Kristina Radosavljević

For millennia,

Milenijumima je narod u Britaniji koristio bronzu za pravljenje alata i nakita,

the people of Britain had been using bronze to make tools and jewelry,

and as a currency for trade.

kao i za valutu u trgovini.

But around 800 BCE, that began to change:

Ali oko 800. godine pre nove ere, to je počelo da se menja:

the value of bronze declined, causing social upheaval and an economic crisis—

vrednost bronze je opala, što je izazvalo društveni preokret i ekonomsku krizu -

what we would call a recession today.

ono što bismo danas nazvali recesijom.

What causes recessions?

Šta uzrokuje recesije?

This question has long been the subject of heated debate among economists,

Ovo pitanje je dugo bilo predmet žestoke rasprave među ekonomistima,

and for good reason.

i to sa dobrim razlogom.

A recession can be a mild decline in economic activity

Recesija može biti blagi pad ekonomskih aktivnosti

in a single country that lasts months,

u jednoj zemlji koji traje mesecima,

a long-lasting downturn with global ramifications that last years,

dugotrajan pad sa globalnim posledicama koji traje godinama,

or anything in between.

ili bilo šta između ta dva.

Complicating matters further,

Dodatno komplikuje stvari

there are countless variables that contribute to an economy’s health,

to što postoji bezbroj promenljivih koje doprinose zdravlju ekonomije,

making it difficult to pinpoint specific causes.

što otežava određivanje konkretnih uzroka.

So it helps to start with the big picture:

Pomaže ako počnemo sa širom slikom:

recessions occur when there is a negative disruption

recesije nastaju kada se javi negativan poremećaj

to the balance between supply and demand.

ravnoteže između ponude i potražnje.

There’s a mismatch between how many goods people want to buy,

Postoji neusklađenost između toga koliko robe ljudi žele da kupe,

how many products and services producers can offer,

koliko proizvoda i usluga proizvođači mogu da ponude,

and the price of the goods and services sold, which prompts an economic decline.

i cene prodatih roba i usluga, što podstiče ekonomski pad.

An economy’s relationship between supply and demand

Odnos između ponude i potražnje u nekoj ekonomiji

is reflected in its inflation rates and interest rates.

ogleda se u njenim stopama inflacije i kamatnim stopama.

Inflation happens when goods and services get more expensive.

Inflacija se dešava kada roba i usluge poskupljuju.

Put another way, the value of money decreases.

Drugim rečima, vrednost novca opada.

Still, inflation isn’t necessarily a bad thing.

Ipak, inflacija nije nužno loša stvar.

In fact, a low inflation rate is thought to encourage economic activity.

Zapravo, smatra se da niska stopa inflacije podstiče ekonomsku aktivnost.

But high inflation that isn’t accompanied with high demand

Ali visoka inflacija koja nije praćena velikom potražnjom

can both cause problems for an economy and eventually lead to a recession.

može ujedno izazvati probleme za ekonomiju i na kraju dovesti do recesije.

Interest rates, meanwhile,

Kamatne stope, međutim,

reflect the cost of taking on debt for individuals and companies.

odražavaju troškove preuzimanja duga za pojedince i kompanije.

The rate is typically an annual percentage of a loan

Stopa je obično godišnji procenat kredita

that borrowers pay to their creditors until the loan is repaid.

koji zajmoprimci plaćaju poveriocima dok se zajam ne otplati.

Low interest rates mean that companies can afford to borrow more money,

Niske kamatne stope znače da kompanije mogu priuštiti da pozajme više novca,

which they can use to invest in more projects.

koji mogu uložiti u više projekata.

High interest rates, meanwhile, increase costs for producers and consumers,

Sa druge strane, visoke kamatne stope

povećavaju troškove za proizvođače i potrošače,

slowing economic activity.

što usporava ekonomske aktivnosti.

Fluctuations in inflation and interest rates

Oscilacije inflacije i kamatnih stopa

can give us insight into the health of the economy,

nam mogu dati uvid u zdravlje ekonomije,

but what causes these fluctuations in the first place?

ali šta uopšte izaziva te oscilacije?

The most obvious causes are shocks like natural disaster, war,

Najočigledniji uzroci su šokovi poput prirodnih katastrofa, rata

and geopolitical factors.

i geopolitičkih faktora.

An earthquake, for example,

Zemljotres, na primer,

can destroy the infrastructure needed to produce important commodities such as oil.

može uništiti potrebnu infrastrukturu za proizvodnju važnih roba poput nafte.

That forces the supply side of the economy to charge more for products that use oil,

To primorava ponudu ekonomije da naplaćuje više za proizvode koji koriste naftu,

discouraging demand and potentially prompting a recession.

što obeshrabruje potražnju i potencijalno stvara recesiju.

But some recessions occur in times of economic prosperity—

Ali neke recesije se javljaju u doba ekonomskog prosperiteta -

possibly even because of economic prosperity.

a možda čak usled ekonomskog prosperiteta.

Some economists believe that business activity from a market’s expansion

Neki ekonomisti smatraju da poslovne aktivnosti zbog širenja tržišta

can occasionally reach an unsustainable level.

ponekad mogu dostići neodrživi nivo.

For example, corporations and consumers may borrow more money

Na primer, korporacije i potrošači mogu pozajmljivati više novca

with the assumption that economic growth will help them handle the added burden.

uz pretpostavku da će im ekonomski rast pomoći da se nose sa dodatnim teretom.

But if the economy doesn’t grow as quickly as expected,

Ali ako ekonomija ne raste tako brzo kao što se očekuje,

they may end up with more debt than they can manage.

onda mogu završiti sa više dugova nego što mogu da podnesu.

To pay it off, they’ll have to redirect funds from other activities,

Da bi ih isplatili, moraće da preusmere sredstva iz drugih aktivnosti,

reducing business activity.

čime se smanjuju poslovne aktivnosti.

Psychology can also contribute to a recession.

Psihologija takođe može doprineti recesiji.

Fear of a recession can become a self-fulfilling prophecy

Strah od recesije može postati samoispunjavajuće proročanstvo

if it causes people to pull back investing and spending.

ako navede ljude da povuku ulaganja i potrošnju.

In response, producers might cut operating costs

Kao odgovor na to, proizvođači bi mogli smanjiti troškove poslovanja

to help weather the expected decline in demand.

kako bi prebrodili očekivani pad potražnje.

That can lead to a vicious cycle as cost cuts eventually lower wages,

To može dovesti do začaranog kruga

jer smanjivanje troškova na kraju snižava plate,

leading to even lower demand.

što dovodi do još manje potražnje.

Even policy designed to help prevent recessions can contribute.

Čak može doprineti i politika koja je osmišljena

da pomogne u sprečavanju recesije.

When times are tough, governments and central banks may print money,

Kad su vremena teška, vlade i centralne banke mogu da štampaju novac,

increase spending, and lower central bank interest rates.

povećaju potrošnju i snize kamatne stope centralne banke.

Smaller lenders can in turn lower their interest rates,

Manji zajmodavci mogu zauzvrat sniziti svoje kamatne stope,

effectively making debt “cheaper” to boost spending.

čime „pojeftinjuju“ dug kako bi se povećala potrošnja.

But these policies are not sustainable and eventually need to be reversed

Ali ove mere nisu održive i na kraju ih je potrebno ukinuti

to prevent excessive inflation.

da bi se sprečila prekomerna inflacija.

That can cause a recession if people have become too reliant on cheap debt

To može izazvati recesiju ako se ljudi previše oslanjaju na jeftin dug

and government stimulus.

i podsticaje vlade.

The Bronze recession in Britain eventually ended when the adoption of iron

Recesija bronze u Britaniji se na kraju završila kada je usvajanje gvožđa

helped revolutionize farming and food production.

pomoglo da se ostvari revolucija u poljoprivredi i proizvodnji hrane.

Modern markets are more complex,

Savremena tržišta su složenija,

making today’s recessions far more difficult to navigate.

zbog čega je daleko teže upravljati današnjom recesijom.

But each recession provides new data to help anticipate and respond

Ali svaka recesija pruža nove podatke

koji pomažu efikasnije predviđanje budućih recesija i reagovanje na njih.

to future recessions more effectively.