What causes an economic recession? - Richard Coffin

Translator: Kuyoshbek Mekxmonov Reviewer: Nazarbek Nazarov

For millennia,

Ming yillar davomida,

the people of Britain had been using bronze to make tools and jewelry,

Angliya xalqi bronzadan asboblar va zargarlik buyumlari yasashda

and as a currency for trade.

hamda savdo-sotiq uchun pul sifatida foydalangan.

But around 800 BCE, that began to change:

Biroq, mill.avv 800-yillarda, bu holat o'zgara boshladi:

the value of bronze declined, causing social upheaval and an economic crisis—

bronzaning qiymati pasayib, ijtimoiy tanglik va iqtisodiy inqiroz -

what we would call a recession today.

hozirda qo'llaniladigan retsessiyani keltirib chiqardi.

What causes recessions?

Retsessiyaga nima sabab bo'ladi?

This question has long been the subject of heated debate among economists,

Bu savol uzoq vaqt davomida iqtisodchilar o'rtasida qizg'in munozarali mavzu bo'lib

and for good reason.

kelgan va bu zoya ketmagan.

A recession can be a mild decline in economic activity

Retsessiya bir mamlakat iqtisodiy faoliyatida oylab davom etadigan

in a single country that lasts months,

o'rtacha pasayish, uzoq

a long-lasting downturn with global ramifications that last years,

yillab davom etadigan global ta'sirga ega inqiroz yoki ular

or anything in between.

o'rtasidagi holatdir. Vaziyatni yanada

Complicating matters further,

murrakablashtirsak,

there are countless variables that contribute to an economy’s health,

iqtisodiyotning sog'lig'iga ta'sir qiladigan son-sanoqsiz omillar mavjud

making it difficult to pinpoint specific causes.

bo'lib, bu aniq bir sababni ko'rsatishni qiyinlashtiradi.

So it helps to start with the big picture:

Shunday qilib, bu umumiy manzaradan boshlashga yordam

recessions occur when there is a negative disruption

beradi: retsessiya talab va taklif o'rtasidagi muvozanat

to the balance between supply and demand.

buzilganda yuzaga keladi.

There’s a mismatch between how many goods people want to buy,

Bunda odamlar qancha mahsulot sotib olishni xohlashi hamda

how many products and services producers can offer,

ishlab chiqaruvchilar qancha tovar va xizmatlar taklif qila olishi

and the price of the goods and services sold, which prompts an economic decline.

o'rtasida nomutanosiblik bo'ladi.

An economy’s relationship between supply and demand

Iqtisodiyotning talab va taklif o'rtasidagi o'zaro

is reflected in its inflation rates and interest rates.

bog'liqligi, uning inflatsiya va foiz ko'rsatkichlariga tas'ir ko'rsatadi.

Inflation happens when goods and services get more expensive.

Inflatsiya tovarlar va xizmatlar qimmatlashganda sodir bo'ladi.

Put another way, the value of money decreases.

Boshqacha qilib aytganda, pul qadrsizlanadi.

Still, inflation isn’t necessarily a bad thing.

Shunga qaramay, inflatsiya mutlaq yomon narsa emas.

In fact, a low inflation rate is thought to encourage economic activity.

Aslida inflyatsiyaning past darajasi iqtisodiy faollikni rag'batlantiradi.

But high inflation that isn’t accompanied with high demand

Ammo yuqori talab bilan birga kelmaydigan yuqori inflyatsiya

can both cause problems for an economy and eventually lead to a recession.

iqtisodiy muammolarga sabab bo'ladi va natijada retsessiyaga olib keladi.

Interest rates, meanwhile,

Shu bilan birga, foiz stavka

reflect the cost of taking on debt for individuals and companies.

stavkalari shaxslar va kompaniyalar uchun qarz olish xarajatlarini aks ettiradi.

The rate is typically an annual percentage of a loan

Stavka, odatda, qarz oluvchilar kredit qaytarilgunga qadar o'z

that borrowers pay to their creditors until the loan is repaid.

kreditorlariga to'laydigan qarzning yillik foizidir. Past foiz stavkalari

Low interest rates mean that companies can afford to borrow more money,

shuni anglatadiki, kompaniyalar ko'proq loyihalarni sarmoyalash uchun foydalanishi

which they can use to invest in more projects.

mumkin bo'lgan ko'proq pul qarzga olishlari mumkin.

High interest rates, meanwhile, increase costs for producers and consumers,

Shu bilan birga, yuqori foiz stavkalari ishlab chiqaruvchilar va iste'molchilar

slowing economic activity.

uchun harajatlarni oshiradi, iqtisodiy

Fluctuations in inflation and interest rates

faoliyatni sekinlashtiradi. Inflyatsiya va foiz stavkalaridagi

can give us insight into the health of the economy,

tebranishlar bizga iqtisodiyotning holati to'g'risida

but what causes these fluctuations in the first place?

tushuncha berishi mumkin, ammo bu tebranishlarning sababi nimada?

The most obvious causes are shocks like natural disaster, war,

Eng aniq sabablar tabiiy ofat, urush va geosiyosiy omillar

and geopolitical factors.

kabi kutilmagan vaziyatlardir. Masalan,

An earthquake, for example,

zilzila neft kabi tovarlarni

can destroy the infrastructure needed to produce important commodities such as oil.

ishlab chiqarish uchun zarur bo'lgan infratuzilmani yo'q qilishi mumkin.

That forces the supply side of the economy to charge more for products that use oil,

Bu iqtisodiyotning ta'minot tomonini neft- dan foydalanadigan mahsulotlar uchun

discouraging demand and potentially prompting a recession.

ko'proq haq olishga majbur qiladi, talabni susaytiradi va retsessiyani keltirib

But some recessions occur in times of economic prosperity—

chiqarishi mumkin. Ammo ba'zi turg'unliklar iqtisodiy farovonlik davrida

possibly even because of economic prosperity.

hattoki, iqtisodiy farovonlik tufayli ham ro'y beradi.

Some economists believe that business activity from a market’s expansion

Ba'zi iqtisodchilarning fikriga ko'ra, bozorning kengayishidan kelib chiqadigan

can occasionally reach an unsustainable level.

biznes faolligi ba'zida beqaror darajaga ko'tarilishi mumkin.

For example, corporations and consumers may borrow more money

Masalan, korporatsiyalar va iste'molchilar iqtisodiy o'sish ularga qo'shimcha

with the assumption that economic growth will help them handle the added burden.

yukdan qutulishga yordam beradi degan tahmin bilan ko'proq qarz olishi mumkin.

But if the economy doesn’t grow as quickly as expected,

Ammo, agar iqtisodiyot kutilgan darajada tez rivojlanmasa,

they may end up with more debt than they can manage.

ular qaytara oladigandan ko'proq qarzga botishi mumkin.

To pay it off, they’ll have to redirect funds from other activities,

Buni to'lash uchun, ular biznes faoliyatini kamaytirgan holda,

reducing business activity.

mablag'larini boshqa faoliyatga yo'naltirishadi.

Psychology can also contribute to a recession.

Ruxiyat ham turg'unlikka hissa qo'shishi mumkin.

Fear of a recession can become a self-fulfilling prophecy

Retsessiyadan cho'chish, o'zini-o'zi amalga oshiruvchi bashoratga aylanadi,

if it causes people to pull back investing and spending.

agar bu odamlarni investitsiya va xarajatlardan qaytishiga sabab bo'lsa.

In response, producers might cut operating costs

Bunga javoban ishlab chiqaruvchilar kutilayotgan talabning pasayishiga

to help weather the expected decline in demand.

bardosh berish uchun operatsion xarajatlarni kamaytirishi mumkin.

That can lead to a vicious cycle as cost cuts eventually lower wages,

Bu ayanchli siklga olib kelishi mumkin, xarajatlar kamayishi natijasida ish haqi

leading to even lower demand.

pasayadi va bu talabni pasayishiga olib keladi. Hatto turg'un-

Even policy designed to help prevent recessions can contribute.

-likni oldini olishga qaratilgan siyosat ham o'z hissasini qo'shishi mumkin.

When times are tough, governments and central banks may print money,

Vaqt qiyinlashsa, hukumatlar va markaziy banklar pulni bosib chiqarishlari,

increase spending, and lower central bank interest rates.

xarajatlarni ko'paytirishi va markaziy bankning foiz stavkalarini pasaytirishi

Smaller lenders can in turn lower their interest rates,

mumkin. Kichik qarz beruvchi o'z navbatida foiz stavkalarini pasaytirib,

effectively making debt “cheaper” to boost spending.

xarajatni ko'paytirish uchun qarzni "arzonroq" qilishadi.

But these policies are not sustainable and eventually need to be reversed

Ammo bu siyosatlar samarali bo'lmaydi va natijada yuqori inflyatsiyani oldini olish

to prevent excessive inflation.

uchun ularni o'zgartirish zarur bo'lib qoladi.

That can cause a recession if people have become too reliant on cheap debt

Agar odamlar arzon qarz va hukumatni rag'batlantirishga juda ishonib qolishsa,

and government stimulus.

bu tanazzulga olib kelishi mumkin.

The Bronze recession in Britain eventually ended when the adoption of iron

Britaniyadagi bronza inqirozi, oxir-oqibat temirning qabul qilinishi qehqonchilik va

helped revolutionize farming and food production.

oziq-ovqat ishlab chiqarishda inqilobga yordam berganida yakunlandi.

Modern markets are more complex,

Hozirda bozor yanada murakkab bo'lib, bugungi

making today’s recessions far more difficult to navigate.

kundagi turg'unlikni nazorat qilishni ancha qiyinlashtirmoqda. Ammo har bir

But each recession provides new data to help anticipate and respond

turg'unlik kelajakdagi turg'unliklarni oldindan ko'rish, ularga yanada samarali

to future recessions more effectively.

javob berishga yordam beradigan yangi ma'lumotlar taqdim etadi.