What causes an economic recession? - Richard Coffin

譯者: Lilian Chiu 審譯者: SF Huang

For millennia,

數千年來，大不列顛人民

the people of Britain had been using bronze to make tools and jewelry,

一直使用青銅來製作工具和珠寶，

and as a currency for trade.

也當作做交易用的貨幣。

But around 800 BCE, that began to change:

但大約在西元前 800 年 開始有了改變：

the value of bronze declined, causing social upheaval and an economic crisis—

青銅的價值下跌，

造成社會動盪及經濟危機——

what we would call a recession today.

也就是現今所謂的衰退。

What causes recessions?

造成衰退的因素是什麼？

This question has long been the subject of heated debate among economists,

這個問題長年來一直都是 經濟學家熱烈辯論的主題，

and for good reason.

且是有合理原因的。

A recession can be a mild decline in economic activity

衰退可能是單一國家的經濟活動

in a single country that lasts months,

持續數個月緩和地下降、

a long-lasting downturn with global ramifications that last years,

可能是持續數年的 長期全球經濟不景氣，

or anything in between.

或介於兩者之間。

Complicating matters further,

讓事情更複雜的是，

there are countless variables that contribute to an economy’s health,

經濟的健康會受到無數變數的影響，

making it difficult to pinpoint specific causes.

所以很難精準地點出明確原因。

So it helps to start with the big picture:

比較有幫助的做法 是從宏觀開始了解：

recessions occur when there is a negative disruption

當供應和需求之間的平衡被瓦解時，

to the balance between supply and demand.

就會發生衰退。

There’s a mismatch between how many goods people want to buy,

消費者想購買的商品總量，

how many products and services producers can offer,

與生產者提供的產品和勞務總量，

and the price of the goods and services sold, which prompts an economic decline.

以及銷售商品勞務的價格這三者間，

如果失衡，就會造成經濟衰退。

An economy’s relationship between supply and demand

供需間的經濟關係

is reflected in its inflation rates and interest rates.

會反映在它的通膨率和利率上。

Inflation happens when goods and services get more expensive.

當商品和勞務變更貴時， 就會發生通貨膨脹。

Put another way, the value of money decreases.

換言之，貨幣的價值下跌。

Still, inflation isn’t necessarily a bad thing.

但，通貨膨脹不見得是壞事。

In fact, a low inflation rate is thought to encourage economic activity.

事實上，一般認為低通膨率 會鼓勵經濟活動。

But high inflation that isn’t accompanied with high demand

但沒有伴隨著高需求的高通膨率

can both cause problems for an economy and eventually lead to a recession.

不僅會造成經濟問題，

而且最終還會導致衰退。

Interest rates, meanwhile,

至於利率，

reflect the cost of taking on debt for individuals and companies.

它反映出個人和公司借錢的成本。

The rate is typically an annual percentage of a loan

該利率通常是指在貸款還清前， 借款人向貸款人支付利息

that borrowers pay to their creditors until the loan is repaid.

與總貸款金額的年百分比。

Low interest rates mean that companies can afford to borrow more money,

低利率表示公司能夠借更多錢，

which they can use to invest in more projects.

借來的錢可以投資到更多計畫上。

High interest rates, meanwhile, increase costs for producers and consumers,

至於高利率，則會增加 生產者和消費者的成本，

slowing economic activity.

減緩經濟的活動。

Fluctuations in inflation and interest rates

通膨率和利率的波動

can give us insight into the health of the economy,

能讓我們深入理解經濟體是否健康，

but what causes these fluctuations in the first place?

但，最初造成波動的原因是什麼？

The most obvious causes are shocks like natural disaster, war,

最明顯的原因是衝擊，

像自然災害、戰爭， 以及地緣政治因素。

and geopolitical factors.

An earthquake, for example,

以地震為例，

can destroy the infrastructure needed to produce important commodities such as oil.

可能會摧毀產製重要商品 （如石油）所需的基礎設施。

That forces the supply side of the economy to charge more for products that use oil,

那會迫使經濟的供應方 用更高的價格銷售

以石油為原物料的產品，

discouraging demand and potentially prompting a recession.

抑制需求且可能引發衰退。

But some recessions occur in times of economic prosperity—

但有些衰退卻發生在 經濟繁榮的時期——

possibly even because of economic prosperity.

甚至可能就是因為經濟繁榮才會發生。

Some economists believe that business activity from a market’s expansion

有些經濟學家相信， 市場擴展的商業活動

can occasionally reach an unsustainable level.

偶爾會達到一種無法維持的程度。

For example, corporations and consumers may borrow more money

比如，企業和消費者可能會借更多錢，

with the assumption that economic growth will help them handle the added burden.

因為他們假設經濟成長會協助他們 處理借更多錢所帶來的負擔。

But if the economy doesn’t grow as quickly as expected,

但如果經濟的成長沒有期望的那麼快，

they may end up with more debt than they can manage.

他們最後留下的債務可能 超出他們的能力範圍。

To pay it off, they’ll have to redirect funds from other activities,

若要還清債務，他們就得 從其他活動中轉移資金，

reducing business activity.

減少商業活動。

Psychology can also contribute to a recession.

心理因素也可能會引發衰退。

Fear of a recession can become a self-fulfilling prophecy

如果對衰退的恐懼心理 造成大家對投資和花費有所保留，

if it causes people to pull back investing and spending.

最後可能會成為自我應驗的預言。

In response, producers might cut operating costs

生產者的因應方式 可能會是削減營運成本，

to help weather the expected decline in demand.

來協助他們平安度過 預期的需求下降。

That can lead to a vicious cycle as cost cuts eventually lower wages,

那會造成惡性循環，

因為成本縮減最終會讓薪水降低，

leading to even lower demand.

又導致更低的需求。

Even policy designed to help prevent recessions can contribute.

甚至設計來預防衰退的政策 也有可能引發衰退。

When times are tough, governments and central banks may print money,

在艱困時期，政府 和中央銀行可能會印製鈔票、

increase spending, and lower central bank interest rates.

增加花費、降低中央銀行的利率。

Smaller lenders can in turn lower their interest rates,

相對的，較小規模的貸款人 也可以降低他們的利率，

effectively making debt “cheaper” to boost spending.

有效地讓債務變得 「更便宜」，以推動花費。

But these policies are not sustainable and eventually need to be reversed

但，這些政策並非長久之計， 最終還是得回收紙幣

to prevent excessive inflation.

才能預防過度通貨膨脹。

That can cause a recession if people have become too reliant on cheap debt

如果大家太過仰賴便宜的債務 以及政府的刺激，

and government stimulus.

就可能會造成衰退。

The Bronze recession in Britain eventually ended when the adoption of iron

大不列顛的青銅衰退最後能告終，

是因為鐵的使用協助徹底 改革了農業和糧食生產。

helped revolutionize farming and food production.

Modern markets are more complex,

現今的市場更複雜多變，

making today’s recessions far more difficult to navigate.

使得衰退議題更難處理。

But each recession provides new data to help anticipate and respond

但每次衰退都會提供新資料，

協助我們更有效地預測 和因應未來的衰退。

to future recessions more effectively.