What is the tragedy of the commons? - Nicholas Amendolare

Prevodilac: Ivana Krivokuća Lektor: Tijana Mihajlović

Imagine as a thought experiment that you live in a small village

Zamislite, kao misaoni eksperiment, da živite u malom selu

and depend on the local fish pond for food.

i hrana vam zavisi od lokalnog ribnjaka.

Delite ribnjak sa tri druga seljana.

You share the pond with three other villagers.

U ribnjaku u početku ima desetak riba i one se razmnožavaju.

The pond starts off with a dozen fish, and the fish reproduce.

For every two fish, there will be one baby added each night.

Svake noći na svake dve ribe bude pridodata jedna beba.

So, in order to maximize your supply of food,

Dakle, da biste dobili maksimum zaliha hrane,

how many fish should you catch each day?

koliko riba treba da uhvatite svakoga dana?

Take a moment to think about it.

Razmislite o tome na trenutak.

Assume baby fish grow to full size immediately

Uzmite da bebe riba odmah dostižu punu veličinu,

and that the pond begins at full capacity,

da ribnjak na početku ima pun kapacitet

and ignore factors like the sex of the fish you catch.

i zanemarite faktore kao što je pol ribe koju uhvatite.

The answer? One, and it's not just you.

Koji je odgovor? Jednu, i to ne samo vi.

The best way to maximize every villager's food supply

Najbolji način da postignete maksimum zaliha hrane svakog seljanina

is for each fisherman to take just one fish each day.

je da svaki ribar uhvati samo jednu ribu svakog dana.

Here's how the math works.

Ovako stoji matematika.

Ako svaki seljanin uhvati jednu ribu, ostaće ih osam preko noći.

If each villager takes one fish, there will be eight fish left over night.

Each pair of fish produces one baby,

Svaki par riba proizvede jednu bebu

and the next day, the pond will be fully restocked with twelve fish.

i sledećeg dana će zaliha u ribnjaku biti potpuno obnovljena sa 12 riba.

If anyone takes more than one, the number of reproductive pairs drops,

Ako neko od njih uhvati više od jedne, opada broj reproduktivnih parova

and the population won't be able to bounce back.

i populacija neće moći da se povrati.

Eventually, the fish in the lake will be gone,

Na kraju će sve ribe u jezeru nestati

leaving all four villagers to starve.

i svih četvoro seljana će gladovati.

This fish pond is just one example of a classic problem

Ovaj ribnjak je samo jedan primer klasičnog problema

called the tragedy of the commons.

po imenu tragedija zajedničkog dobra.

The phenomenon was first described in a pamphlet

Ovu pojavu je prvi put opisao u pamfletu

by economist William Forster Lloyd in 1833

ekonomista Vilijam Forster Lojd 1833. godine

in a discussion of the overgrazing of cattle

u diskusiji o prekomernoj ispaši stoke

on village common areas.

u zajedničkim seoskim oblastima.

More than 100 years later, ecologist Garrett Hardin revived the concept

Više od 100 godina kasnije, ekolog Garet Hardin je obnovio koncept

to describe what happens when many individuals

da bi opisao šta se dogodi kada mnogo pojedinaca

all share a limited resource,

deli ograničene resurse

like grazing land,

kao što su pašnjaci,

fishing areas,

ribolovna područja,

living space,

životni prostor,

even clean air.

čak i čist vazduh.

Hardin argued that these situations pit short-term self-interest

Hardin je tvrdio da ove situacije stavljaju u konflikt

kratkoročni lični interes naspram zajedničkog dobra

against the common good,

and they end badly for everyone,

i na kraju se završe loše po sve,

resulting in overgrazing,

što ima za posledicu prekomernu ispašu,

overfishing,

prekomerni ribolov,

overpopulation,

prenaseljenost,

pollution,

zagađenost

and other social and environmental problems.

i druge društvene i ekološke probleme.

The key feature of a tragedy of the commons

Glavna odlika tragedije zajedničkog dobra

is that it provides an opportunity for an individual to benefit him or herself

je to što daje mogućnost da pojedinac stekne ličnu korist,

while spreading out any negative effects across the larger population.

pri čemu prenosi negativne efekte na širu populaciju.

To see what that means, let's revisit our fish pond.

Da biste videli šta to znači, vratimo se našem ribnjaku.

Each individual fisherman is motivated

Svaki pojedinačni ribar je motivisan

to take as many fish as he can for himself.

da uhvati što više riba može za sebe.

Meanwhile, any decline in fish reproduction

Međutim, svaki pad u razmnožavanju ribe

is shared by the entire village.

je zajednički za celo selo.

Anxious to avoid losing out to his neighbors,

U strahu da ga ne nadmaše susedi,

a fisherman will conclude that it's in his best interest to take an extra fish,

ribar će zaključiti da je u njegovom najboljem interesu

da uhvati još jednu ribu,

or two,

ili dve,

or three.

ili tri.

Unfortunately, this is the same conclusion reached by the other fisherman,

Nažalost, do istog tog zaključka dolaze i ostali ribari,

and that's the tragedy.

a to je tragedija.

Optimizing for the self in the short term isn't optimal for anyone in the long term.

Kratkoročno sticanje najveće moguće koristi za sebe

nije najpovoljnije za sve na duže staze.

That's a simplified example, but the tragedy of the commons

To je pojednostavljen primer, ali tragedija zajedničkog dobra

plays out in the more complex systems of real life, too.

odigrava se i u složenijim sistemima u stvarnom životu.

The overuse of antibiotics has led to short-term gains in livestock production

Prekomerna upotreba antibiotika je dovela do kratkoročnih dobiti u proizvodnji stoke

and in treating common illnesses,

i lečenju učestalih oboljenja,

but it's also resulted in the evolution of antibiotic-resistant bacteria,

ali je takođe imala za posledicu razvoj bakterija otpornih na antibiotike,

which threaten the entire population.

koje prete čitavoj populaciji.

A coal-fired power plant produces cheap electricity for its customers

Elektrana na ugalj stvara jeftinu električnu energiju za svoje kupce

and profits for its owners.

i profit za svoje vlasnike.

These local benefits are helpful in the short term,

Te lokalne prednosti su korisne kratkoročno,

but pollution from mining and burning coal is spread across the entire atmosphere

ali se zagađivanje usled iskopavanja i spaljivanja uglja

širi čitavom atmosferom i ostaje prisutno hiljadama godina.

and sticks around for thousands of years.

There are other examples, too.

Postoje i drugi primeri.

Bacanje smeća,

Littering,

nestašice vode,

water shortages,

deforestation,

krčenje šuma,

traffic jams,

saobraćajne gužve,

even the purchase of bottled water.

čak i kupovina flaširane vode.

But human civilization has proven it's capable of doing something remarkable.

Ali, ljudska civilizacija je pokazala da je u stanju da uradi nešto izuzetno.

We form social contracts,

Mi stvaramo društvene ugovore,

we make communal agreements,

sklapamo komunalne sporazume,

we elect governments,

biramo vlast

and we pass laws.

i donosimo zakone.

All this to save our collective selves from our own individual impulses.

Sve to da bismo se kolektivno sačuvali od svojih individualnih impulsa.

It isn't easy, and we certainly don't get it right nearly all of the time.

To nije lako i svakako da nam ne uspeva svaki put,

But humans at our best have shown that we can solve these problems

ali mi, ljudi, u svom najboljem izdanju, pokazali smo da možemo rešiti ove probleme

and we can continue to do so if we remember Hardin's lesson.

i možemo sa time da nastavimo ako se setimo Hardinove lekcije.

When the tragedy of the commons applies,

Kada se primeni tragedija zajedničkog dobra,

what's good for all of us is good for each of us.

ono što je dobro za sve nas, dobro je za svakog od nas pojedinačno.