What is the tragedy of the commons? - Nicholas Amendolare

譯者: Sherl H 審譯者: Helen Chang

Imagine as a thought experiment that you live in a small village

以思想實驗的方式 想像你住在一個小村莊

and depend on the local fish pond for food.

並且依賴當地魚池為生

You share the pond with three other villagers.

你和其他三位村民共享這個池塘

The pond starts off with a dozen fish, and the fish reproduce.

池塘剛開始有一打魚 然後魚兒繁殖

For every two fish, there will be one baby added each night.

每兩條魚 在每天晚上會增加一隻魚寶寶

So, in order to maximize your supply of food,

那麼 為了最大化你的食物來源

how many fish should you catch each day?

你每天應該抓幾條魚呢？

Take a moment to think about it.

花點時間思考一下

Assume baby fish grow to full size immediately

假設魚寶寶立即長大

and that the pond begins at full capacity,

且池塘的起始狀態為最大負荷量

and ignore factors like the sex of the fish you catch.

並忽略所抓到的魚的性別等因素

The answer? One, and it's not just you.

答案是 一條魚 而且不只是你

The best way to maximize every villager's food supply

最大化每位村民食物來源的最佳方法

is for each fisherman to take just one fish each day.

是每位魚夫每天只捕一隻魚

Here's how the math works.

計算方法是這樣的

If each villager takes one fish, there will be eight fish left over night.

如果每位村民抓走一隻魚 會剩下八隻魚過夜

Each pair of fish produces one baby,

每對魚產生一隻魚寶寶

and the next day, the pond will be fully restocked with twelve fish.

隔天池塘將會重新補滿成 12 隻魚

If anyone takes more than one, the number of reproductive pairs drops,

如果有任何人捕捉超過一隻魚 能成對繁殖的數量就減少了

and the population won't be able to bounce back.

而且魚群數量無法回升

Eventually, the fish in the lake will be gone,

最後池子裡的魚都將消失

leaving all four villagers to starve.

留下飢腸轆轆的四位村民

This fish pond is just one example of a classic problem

這個魚池問題 只是一道經典難題的範例

called the tragedy of the commons.

這難題叫作公共財悲劇

The phenomenon was first described in a pamphlet

這個現象首次被描述於一本小冊子中

by economist William Forster Lloyd in 1833

由經濟學家威廉‧佛司特‧洛伊 於 1833 所著

in a discussion of the overgrazing of cattle

討論到在村落公共區域

on village common areas.

過度牧放的牛群

More than 100 years later, ecologist Garrett Hardin revived the concept

一百多年後 生態學家加勒特·哈丁 復興了這個概念

to describe what happens when many individuals

來描述當許多個體

all share a limited resource,

共享有限資源時會發生的狀況

like grazing land,

像是牧場

fishing areas,

漁場

living space,

居住空間

even clean air.

甚至乾淨空氣

Hardin argued that these situations pit short-term self-interest

哈丁主張這種情況讓短期私利

against the common good,

與公共利益互相衝突

and they end badly for everyone,

並且讓大家的下場都不好

resulting in overgrazing,

造成過度放牧

overfishing,

過度捕撈

overpopulation,

人口過剩

pollution,

汙染

and other social and environmental problems.

和其他社會及環境問題

The key feature of a tragedy of the commons

公共財悲劇的關鍵特色

is that it provides an opportunity for an individual to benefit him or herself

是它提供了一個機會 讓個體為自己獲利的同時

while spreading out any negative effects across the larger population.

對較大的群體散佈任何負面影響

To see what that means, let's revisit our fish pond.

要了解那是什麼意思 讓我們再次拜訪魚池

Each individual fisherman is motivated

每位漁人都有動機

to take as many fish as he can for himself.

能抓多少魚 就為自己多抓些

Meanwhile, any decline in fish reproduction

同時 任何魚兒繁殖量的減少

is shared by the entire village.

都由全村共同承擔

Anxious to avoid losing out to his neighbors,

因著對於失去鄰居感到焦慮

a fisherman will conclude that it's in his best interest to take an extra fish,

一位漁人會結論出 對他最有利做法是多抓一隻魚

or two,

或兩隻

or three.

或三隻

Unfortunately, this is the same conclusion reached by the other fisherman,

不幸的是 這也是其他漁人做出的結論

and that's the tragedy.

而這就是悲劇

Optimizing for the self in the short term isn't optimal for anyone in the long term.

短期的善待自己 長期下來對任何人都沒有好處

That's a simplified example, but the tragedy of the commons

這是一個簡化的例子 但公共財悲劇

plays out in the more complex systems of real life, too.

在現實生活更複雜的系統中 也占有一席之地

The overuse of antibiotics has led to short-term gains in livestock production

過度使用抗生素造成 牲畜產量的短期獲利

and in treating common illnesses,

並治療一般疾病

but it's also resulted in the evolution of antibiotic-resistant bacteria,

但這也導致抗藥性細菌的演化

which threaten the entire population.

威脅著整個族群

A coal-fired power plant produces cheap electricity for its customers

一座火力發電廠為消費者 生產廉價的電力

and profits for its owners.

並為業主帶來獲利

These local benefits are helpful in the short term,

這些地方性的效益在短期內是有幫助的

but pollution from mining and burning coal is spread across the entire atmosphere

但採礦和燃燒煤炭產生的汙染 擴散到整個大氣層

and sticks around for thousands of years.

並留在那裡數千年之久

There are other examples, too.

也有些其他的例子

Littering,

亂丟垃圾

water shortages,

水源短缺

deforestation,

森林砍伐

traffic jams,

交通阻塞

even the purchase of bottled water.

甚至是購買瓶裝水

But human civilization has proven it's capable of doing something remarkable.

但人類文明已經證明 我們有能力成就非凡的事

We form social contracts,

我們形成社會契約

we make communal agreements,

我們制定社區協議

we elect governments,

我們選舉出政府

and we pass laws.

我們也通過法條

All this to save our collective selves from our own individual impulses.

這一切都將我們的集體自我 從個人的衝動中拯救出來

It isn't easy, and we certainly don't get it right nearly all of the time.

這並不容易 而且的確 我們幾乎總是無法做好

But humans at our best have shown that we can solve these problems

但竭盡所能的人類 已經證明我們能夠解決這些問題

and we can continue to do so if we remember Hardin's lesson.

並且我們能夠持續這麼做 只要我們記得哈丁的教訓

When the tragedy of the commons applies,

當涉及到公共財悲劇

what's good for all of us is good for each of us.

對我們大家有益的 也就是對我們個人有益的