What happens when the Arctic permafrost melts? - Brendan Rogers and Jessica Howard

Prevodilac: Milena Petrovic Lektor: Milenka Okuka

In June 2022, a gold miner in the Canadian Yukon

U junu 2022, rudar zlata u Jukonu u Kanadi

made a remarkable discovery.

došao je do izuzetnog otkrića.

While working on the traditional lands of the Tr’ondëk Hwëch’in First Nation,

Radeći na tradicionalnoj zemlji Prve nacije Trondek Huečin,

he uncovered the exceptionally well-preserved frozen remains

otkrio je izuzetno očuvane zamrznute ostatke

of a woolly mammoth calf that died 30,000 years ago.

mladunčeta runastog mamuta koje je umrlo pre 30 000 godina.

But this find isn’t the only of its kind

Međutim, ovo nije jedino otkriće ove vrste

because the Arctic holds many buried secrets...

zato što Arktik čuva mnogo zakopanih tajni...

About 15% of the Northern Hemisphere contains permafrost—

Oko 15% severne hemisfere čini permafrost—

that is, ground that doesn’t thaw seasonally,

to jest zemlja koja se ne otapa sezonski,

but has instead stayed frozen for at least two years—

već ostaje zaleđena najmanje dve godine—

and, typically, much longer.

a, obično i duže.

The oldest permafrost yet discovered is located in the Yukon

Najstariji permafrost otkriven dosad nalazi se u Jukonu

and has been frozen for 740,000 years.

i zaleđen je već 740 000 godina.

The thickness of permafrost also ranges,

Debljina permafrosta takođe varira,

from just 1 meter in some areas to over a kilometer in others.

od samo jednog metra u nekim oblastima do preko kilometra u drugim.

And permafrost is exceptionally good at preserving biological remains.

I permafrost je izuzetno dobar u čuvanju bioloških ostataka.

If any ice crystals are close to remains buried in permafrost,

Ako su neki kristali leda blizu ostataka zakopanih u permafrostu,

they help draw moisture away.

oni pomažu u izvlačenju vlage.

And microorganisms that would otherwise quickly decompose

I mikroorganizmi koji bi u suprotnom brzo razložili

plant and animal tissues operate at slower metabolic rates

biljna i životinjska tkiva rade sporijom metaboličkom brzinom

in these subfreezing temperatures.

na ovim ledenim temperaturama.

The outcome is that, instead of having to rely on fossilized skeletons

Ishod je da, umesto da se oslanjamo na fosilizovane skelete

to extrapolate what an ancient animal might have looked like,

kako bismo utvrdili kako je drevna životinja možda izgledala,

permafrost can sometimes offer scientists literal freeze-frames of times long gone.

permafrost ponekad može pružiti naučnicima prave zaleđene kadrove prošlih vremena.

In 2016, another gold miner came face-to-face

Drugi rudar zlata se 2016. godine našao licem u lice

with a 7-week-old grey wolf pup

sa mladunčetom sivog vuka starog sedam nedelja

that had been preserved in permafrost for 57,000 years.

koje je bilo sačuvano u permafrostu 57 000 godina.

Researchers learned that she’d been feasting on salmon,

Istraživači su saznali da se hranilo lososom,

and think she died quickly,

i misle da je brzo umrlo,

possibly when the den she was nestled in collapsed.

verovatno kada se jazbina, u kojoj se ugnezdilo, srušila.

In 2020, reindeer herders encountered remains

Stočari irvasa su 2020. naišli na ostatke

that unmistakably belonged to a bear.

koji su nesumnjivo pripadali medvedu.

But it turned out that they were as much as 39,500 years old.

Međutim, ispostavilo se da su bili stari 39 500 godina.

They belonged to a cave bear.

Pripadali su pećinskom medvedu.

Its species went extinct about 24,000 years ago.

Ova vrsta je izumrla pre oko 24 000 godina.

Before this, scientists had only ever seen cave bear skeletal remains.

Pre ovoga, naučnici su samo videli skeletne ostatke pećinskog medveda.

Even incomplete animal remains found in permafrost

Čak su i nepotpuni životinjski ostaci pronađeni u permafrostu

have yielded incredible results.

pružili neverovatne rezultate.

In 2021, researchers identified a new species of mammoth

Istraživači su 2021. godine identifikovali novu vrstu mamuta

by reconstructing DNA sequences from 1.6-million-year-old mammoth teeth—

rekonstruišući DNK sekvence mamutovih zuba starih 1,6 miliona godina

making it the oldest sequenced DNA on record.

što je čini najstarijom zabeleženom DNK sekvencom.

And extraordinary finds go beyond the animal kingdom:

Izvanredna otkrića prevazilaze životinjsko carstvo.

in 2012, scientists successfully regenerated a flowering tundra plant

Naučnici su 2012. uspešno regenerisali cvetnicu tundre

from seeds they found encased in 32,000-year-old squirrel burrows.

iz semena koje su pronašli u jazbinama veverica starim 32 000 godina.

However, all the prehistoric remains we have yet to discover in permafrost

Ipak, svi praistorijski ostaci koje tek treba otkriti u permafrostu

are at risk, along with much more, because permafrost is thawing rapidly.

su u opasnosti, i više od toga, zato što se permafrost brzo odmrzava.

Climate change is warming the Arctic at 3 to 4 times the rate

Klimatske promene zagrevaju Arktik od tri do četiri puta brže

of the rest of the world.

od ostatka sveta.

And an increased frequency in extreme weather events,

Povećana učestalost ekstremnih vremenskih uslova

like lightning and wildfires,

kao što su munje i šumski požari,

is burning the plants and soil that otherwise help to keep permafrost cool.

spaljuju biljke i tlo koji inače održavaju permafrost hladnim.

When permafrost thaws, it has concerning and far-reaching effects.

Kada se permafrost odmrzava, njegovi efekti su zabrinjavajući i dalekosežni.

The ground can fracture and collapse in on itself,

Tlo može da ispuca i da se uruši,

and the landscape can experience flooding and erosion,

a predeo može doživeti poplave i eroziju,

making previously stable trees tilt and form so-called “drunken forests.”

i učiniti da se stabilno drveće nagne i formira takozvane “pijane šume.”

It can also trigger massive landslides and threaten critical infrastructure.

Takođe može da pokrene masivna klizišta i ugrozi kritičnu infrastrukturu.

By the year 2050, permafrost thaw may endanger 3.6 million people.

Do 2050, otapanje permafrosta može da ugrozi 3,6 miliona ljudi.

This includes many Indigenous and First Nations people

Ovo uključuje mnoge domoroce i ljude Prvih nacija

who have lived across the Arctic region since time immemorial.

koji žive širom arktičkog regiona još od pamtiveka.

Right now, they’re dealing with difficult decisions

Trenutno, oni se bave teškim odlukama

about how to protect their communities and traditional ways of life

kako da zaštite svoje zajednice i tradicionalne načine života

in the face of climate change.

suočeni s klimatskim promenama.

The effects of thawing will also extend far beyond the Arctic.

Efekti otopljavanja će se proširiti i van Arktika.

This is because permafrost stores an estimated 1.6 trillion tons of carbon.

To je zbog toga što permafrost skladišti procenjenih 1,6 biliona tona ugljenika.

That’s over double the amount in Earth’s atmosphere as of 2022—

To je dvostruko veći iznos u Zemljinoj atmosferi zabeležen 2022—

and more than humans have ever released by burning fossil fuels.

i više nego što su ljudi ikada oslobodili sagorevanjem fosilnih goriva.

Permafrost is one of the world’s largest carbon reservoirs

Permafrost je jedan od najvećih svetskih rezervoara ugljenika

because of all the organic material it contains—

zbog sveg organskog materijala koji sadrži—

some as intact remains,

neki su netaknuti ostaci,

but much of it in the form of partially decomposed soils and sediments.

ali većina je u obliku delimično razložene zemlje i taloga.

When it begins thawing,

Kada počne da se otapa,

microorganisms decompose organic material more efficiently,

mikroorganizmi razlažu organski materijal efikasnije,

and release gases like carbon dioxide and methane.

i otpuštaju gasove kao što su ugljen-dioksid i metan.

This triggers a feedback loop:

Ovo pokreće povratnu spregu:

as more gases are released, the climate warms,

kako se više gasova oslobađa klima se zagreva,

causing more permafrost to thaw and release even more greenhouse gases.

što utiče da se više permafrosta otapa oslobađajući više gasova staklene bašte.

To preserve snapshots of what the planet was like thousands of years ago—

Za očuvanje slika kakva je planeta bila hiljadama godina pre—

when mammoths and cave bears trod its terrain—

kada su mamuti i pećinski medvedi gazili po ovom terenu—

and to support the diversity of life on Earth thousands of years to come,

i za podržavanje raznolikosti života na Zemlji za narednih hiljadu godina,

the Arctic needs to keep its cool.

Arktik treba da ostane hladan.