Lee Hotz: Inside an Antarctic time machine

28,440 views ・ 2010-08-24

TED


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譯者: 張新永 Davidchang 審譯者: Adrienne Lin
00:15
Come with me to the bottom of the world,
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跟我一起到地球的底端
00:18
Antarctica,
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南極吧
00:20
the highest, driest, windiest,
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南極是地球上最高, 最乾燥, 風最大
00:22
and yes, coldest region on Earth --
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同時也是最冷的地方
00:25
more arid than the Sahara
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它比薩哈拉沙漠還沒生氣
00:27
and, in parts, colder than Mars.
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它的部分地區比火星還要冷
00:29
The ice of Antarctica glows
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南極的冰層發出的
00:31
with a light so dazzling,
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耀眼光芒
00:33
it blinds the unprotected eye.
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足可讓裸眼為之失明
00:35
Early explorers rubbed cocaine in their eyes
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早期進入此區的探險家們必須在眼中擦古柯鹼
00:37
to kill the pain of it.
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來消除疼痛
00:39
The weight of the ice is such that the entire continent
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冰層的重量讓整的南極大陸
00:42
sags below sea level, beneath its weight.
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下陷到海平面之下
00:45
Yet, the ice of Antarctica
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然而,南極冰層
00:47
is a calendar of climate change.
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是全球氣候變遷的一個活日曆
00:49
It records the annual rise and fall
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它完整紀錄每年溫室氣體
00:51
of greenhouse gases and temperatures
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及溫度的上上下下
00:53
going back before the onset of the last ice ages.
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年代可以追溯到上一個冰河時期
00:56
Nowhere on Earth
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地球上沒有其他地方
00:58
offers us such a perfect record.
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可以提供我們如此完美的紀錄
01:01
And here, scientists are drilling
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在這裡,科學家們正用鑽頭
01:03
into the past of our planet
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鑽進地球的過往歷史
01:05
to find clues to the future
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以便發現未來氣候變遷
01:07
of climate change.
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的線索
01:09
This past January,
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今年一月時
01:11
I traveled to a place called WAIS Divide,
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我到"南極洲西部冰原區(WAIS Divide)"這地方旅遊
01:13
about 600 miles from the South Pole.
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它距離南極大約600英哩
01:15
It is the best place on the planet, many say,
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很多人都認為這是地球上
01:18
to study the history of climate change.
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最適合研究氣候變遷的地方
01:20
There, about 45 scientists from the University of Wisconsin,
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在那裏, 有大約45位科學家, 他們來自威斯康辛大學
01:23
the Desert Research Institute in Nevada and others
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內華達沙漠研究所及其他機構
01:26
have been working to answer a central question
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他們一直致力於探討一個全球暖化
01:28
about global warming.
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的重要問題 那就是
01:30
What is the exact relationship
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溫室氣體程度
01:32
between levels of greenhouse gases
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和地球溫度之間
01:35
and planetary temperatures?
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存在的真正關聯?
01:37
It's urgent work. We know that temperatures are rising.
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這工作有其急迫性.我們都知道全球溫度一直在上升
01:40
This past May was the warmest worldwide on record.
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今年五月達到歷史新高
01:43
And we know that levels of greenhouse gases are rising too.
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我們也知道溫室氣體的含量也在升高
01:46
What we don't know
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但我們並不知道
01:48
is the exact, precise, immediate
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這些變化對於
01:50
impact of these changes
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自然氣候型態
01:52
on natural climate patterns --
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真正 精確 及立即的衝擊是甚麼
01:54
winds, ocean currents,
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這些氣候型態包括風流, 海流♪
01:56
precipitation rates, cloud formation,
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降雨率, 雲的形成等
01:59
things that bear on the health and well-being
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都是攸關幾十億人健康
02:01
of billions of people.
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及福利的事項
02:04
Their entire camp, every item of gear,
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這個營隊的所有帳篷及每一種用品
02:07
was ferried 885 miles
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都是由885英里
02:09
from McMurdo Station,
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外的McMurdo營站空運過來的
02:11
the main U.S. supply base
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McMurdo營站是美國位於南極海岸
02:13
on the coast of Antarctica.
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的主要供應基地
02:15
WAIS Divide itself though,
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至於南極洲西部冰原區則是
02:17
is a circle of tents in the snow.
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由處於風雪中,圍成圓形的帳篷群所組成
02:20
In blizzard winds, the crew sling ropes between the tents
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在大風雪中 組員們必須藉著連在帳篷間的繩索
02:23
so that people can feel their way safely
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才能在最近的戶外廁所
02:26
to the nearest ice house
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及最近的冰房間
02:28
and to the nearest outhouse.
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安全的穿梭
02:30
It snows so heavily there,
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那邊風雪實在太大了
02:32
the installation was almost immediately buried.
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所有的設備幾乎都立刻被風雪所淹沒
02:34
Indeed, the researchers picked this site
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事實上 研究者之所以會選擇這個地點
02:37
because ice and snow accumulates here
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正因為在這裡累積冰雪的速度
02:39
10 times faster than anywhere else in Antarctica.
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比南極任何地方快十倍
02:42
They have to dig themselves out every day.
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工作人員必須每天由雪堆中把自己挖出來
02:45
It makes for an exotic
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這真是一條很奇異
02:47
and chilly commute.
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且寒冷的通道
02:49
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
02:51
But under the surface
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在地表之下
02:53
is a hive of industrial activity
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積極的工業探索活動正如火如荼的進行著
02:56
centered around an eight-million-dollar drill assembly.
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他們圍繞著一台八百萬美元的鑽機
02:59
Periodically, this drill, like a biopsy needle,
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每隔一段時間,這台鑽機就像切片檢查的針一樣
03:02
plunges thousands of feet deep into the ice
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深入上千英尺的冰層中
03:05
to extract a marrow of gases
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抽取其中所含的氣體
03:07
and isotopes for analysis.
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和同位素來作分析
03:10
Ten times a day, they extract
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每天十次,他們由
03:12
the 10-foot long cylinder of compressed ice crystals
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十英尺長的壓縮冰晶柱萃取其中
03:14
that contain the unsullied air and trace chemicals
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未經污染的氣體和微量化學物質
03:17
laid down by snow,
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這些物質埋在
03:19
season after season for thousands of years.
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數千年來累積的雪層下
03:24
It's really a time machine.
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它就像一台時間機器
03:26
At the peak of activity earlier this year,
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在今年初的探索高峰期時
03:29
the researchers lowered the drill
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研究者們每天把鑽頭再往冰層中
03:32
an extra hundred feet deeper into the ice every day
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多鑽探了一百英尺
03:35
and another 365 years
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那意謂著又挖進
03:37
deeper into the past.
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更早的365年的歷史
03:40
Periodically, they remove
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他們定期地將冰柱
03:42
a cylinder of ice,
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由鑽頭筒中取下
03:44
like gamekeepers popping a spent shotgun shell
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就像獵場看守員將已經擊發的子彈殼
03:46
from the barrel of a drill.
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退下一樣。
03:50
They inspect it, they check it for cracks,
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研究員檢查冰柱是否有裂縫,
03:52
for drill damage, for spalls, for chips.
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有無被鑽頭刮傷產生破塊等。
03:56
More importantly,
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更為重要的是,
03:58
they prepare it for inspection and analysis
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他們為位於美國和歐洲的
04:00
by 27 independent laboratories
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27個獨立實驗室
04:02
in the United States and Europe,
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提供樣品以進行檢測和分析
04:04
who will examine it for 40 different trace chemicals
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這些實驗室將檢測與氣候相關的四十種不同
04:06
related to climate,
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的微量化學物,
04:08
some in parts per quadrillion.
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有的含量僅為百萬的四次方(一千萬億)之一。
04:11
Yes, I said that with a Q, quadrillion.
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是的,我是指這個百萬的四次乘方(一千萬億)。
04:14
They cut the cylinders up into three-foot sections
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他們將冰柱分割成為三英尺的小段
04:16
for easier handling and shipment
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以方便冰柱處理和搬運
04:18
back to these labs,
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到離鑽頭點約8000英里外
04:20
some 8,000 miles from the drill site.
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的實驗室
04:23
Each cylinder
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每個冰柱都是
04:25
is a parfait of time.
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某段時間的真實片段。
04:28
This ice formed as snow
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這些冰塊是大約15800年
04:31
15,800 years ago,
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前的雪所形成,
04:34
when our ancestors were daubing themselves with paint
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那個時候人類的祖先還在玩塗料
04:37
and considering the radical new technology
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及思考著關於文字的
04:40
of the alphabet.
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先進技術。
04:43
Bathed in polarized light
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在極光的浸沐下
04:45
and cut in cross-section,
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古冰塊的截面
04:47
this ancient ice reveals itself
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展示出了某種
04:49
as a mosaic of colors,
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馬賽克色彩,
04:51
each one showing how conditions at depth in the ice
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每一個都展現出冰塊中的深度
04:54
have affected this material
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如何影響了這種材料
04:57
at depths where pressures can reach
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在不同深度時 壓力可達到
05:00
a ton per square inch.
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每平方英寸一噸。
05:03
Every year, it begins with a snowflake,
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每年都下雪,
05:06
and by digging into fresh snow,
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由鑽探進入最新鮮的雪層,
05:08
we can see how this process is ongoing today.
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今天我們可以了解這個過程是如何進行的。
05:11
This wall of undisturbed snow,
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在未經開採的雪層下,
05:13
back-lit by sunlight,
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太陽光所造成的背光
05:15
shows the striations of winter and summer snow,
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映射出冬雪和夏雪的條紋,
05:18
layer upon layer.
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一層接著一層。
05:22
Each storm scours the atmosphere,
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每次暴風雪席捲著大氣,
05:25
washing out dust, soot,
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沖洗掉灰塵,煤煙,
05:28
trace chemicals,
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微量化學物,
05:30
and depositing them on the snow pack
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並將其沉澱於雪層上
05:33
year after year,
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年復一年,
05:35
millennia after millennia,
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成千上萬年,
05:37
creating a kind of periodic table of elements
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形成了本地
05:39
that at this point
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超過11000英尺厚的雪層中
05:41
is more than 11,000 feet thick.
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的這種時代週期表
05:44
From this, we can detect an extraordinary number of things.
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從冰柱中,我們可以檢測到種類繁多的物質。
05:49
We can see the calcium
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我們可以找到
05:51
from the world's deserts,
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來自世界沙漠的鈣,
05:53
soot from distant wildfires,
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來自遙遠野火的煤煙,
05:55
methane as an indicator of the strength of a Pacific monsoon,
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以及被當作太平洋雨季的指示劑的甲烷等,
05:58
all wafted on winds from warmer latitudes
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它們都從較溫暖的緯度
06:01
to this remote and very cold place.
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飄到這遙遠寒冷的地方
06:04
Most importantly,
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最為重要的是,
06:06
these cylinders and this snow
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這些冰柱和雪層
06:08
trap air.
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可捕捉氣體。
06:10
Each cylinder is about 10 percent ancient air,
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每個冰柱大約含有10%的古代氣體
06:13
a pristine time capsule
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是溫室氣體最原始的
06:15
of greenhouse gases -- carbon dioxide,
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時間膠囊---二氧化碳,
06:17
methane, nitrous oxide --
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甲烷和氧化氮--
06:19
all unchanged from the day that snow formed
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從雪形成落下的那天開始
06:22
and first fell.
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便未曾發生變化。
06:24
And this is the object of their scrutiny.
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這就是這些研究要仔細調查的。
06:27
But don't we already know
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但是關於溫室氣體該知道的資訊
06:29
what we need to know about greenhouse gases?
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我們不是都已經瞭如指掌的嗎?
06:31
Why do we need to study this anymore?
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為什麼我們還需要進一步研究它呢?
06:33
Don't we already know how they affect temperatures?
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我們不是已經知道它如何影響氣溫嗎?
06:35
Don't we already know the consequences
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我們不是已經都知道變化的氣候 所帶來的結果
06:38
of a changing climate on our settled civilization?
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將如何影響我們的文明社會嗎?
06:41
The truth is, we only know the outlines,
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事實是,我們僅僅知道其大致輪廓,
06:44
and what we don't completely understand,
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並非是完全徹底理解,
06:46
we can't properly fix.
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我們不但沒有能力進行修復。
06:48
Indeed, we run the risk of making things worse.
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事實上,我們還冒著把事情弄得更糟的風險。
06:51
Consider, the single most successful
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舉個例子吧, 20世紀最為成功的
06:54
international environmental effort of the 20th century,
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國際環境保護條例,
06:57
the Montreal Protocol,
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蒙特利公約
06:59
in which the nations of Earth banded together to protect the planet
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其目的在聯合世界各國以保護地球
07:02
from the harmful effects of ozone-destroying chemicals
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免於受到當時使用於空調,電冰箱
07:05
used at that time
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和其它冷卻設備中
07:07
in air conditioners, refrigerators and other cooling devices.
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的臭氧破壞化學物的影響。
07:10
We banned those chemicals,
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我們禁止這些化學物的使用
07:13
and we replaced them, unknowingly,
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卻無知的用
07:15
with other substances
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另外一種物質替換,
07:17
that, molecule per molecule,
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但事實上新物質分子
07:19
are a hundred times more potent
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就其捕捉的太陽熱能
07:21
as heat-trapping, greenhouse gases
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都比二氧化碳
07:23
than carbon dioxide.
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強一百倍
07:26
This process requires
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這樣的過程需要
07:28
extraordinary precautions.
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特別的謹慎預防。
07:31
The scientists must insure
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科學家們必須確保
07:33
that the ice is not contaminated.
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冰柱未受到污染。
07:35
Moreover, in this 8,000-mile journey,
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並且在以後未來長達8000英里的旅途中,
07:37
they have to insure this ice doesn't melt.
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他們必須得確保冰柱不會融化。
07:39
Imagine juggling a snowball across the tropics.
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想像一下夾著雪球穿過熱帶地區吧。
07:43
They have to, in fact,
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他們必須
07:45
make sure this ice never gets warmer
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確保冰柱溫度不會
07:47
than about 20 degrees below zero,
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高於零下20度,
07:49
otherwise, the key gases inside it will dissipate.
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否則冰柱中的關鍵氣體就會揮發。
07:52
So, in the coldest place on Earth,
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因此在地球最為寒冷的地區
07:55
they work inside a refrigerator.
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他們實質上是在冰箱裏面工作
07:58
As they handle the ice, in fact,
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事實上當他們處理冰柱的同時,
08:00
they keep an extra pair of gloves warming in an oven,
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另外一雙手套是置於烤箱中的,
08:02
so that, when their work gloves freeze
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當他們帶在手上的手套凍結,
08:04
and their fingers stiffen,
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手指變得僵硬時,
08:06
they can don a fresh pair.
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他們就換上烤暖的那雙手套。
08:08
They work against the clock and against the thermometer.
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他們的工作,是必須與時間和溫差賽跑的
08:11
So far, they've packed up
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目前為止,他們已經堆積了
08:13
about 4,500 feet of ice cores
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大約4500英尺的冰雪,
08:17
for shipment back to the United States.
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這些冰雪都將會被運回美國。
08:19
This past season,
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在剛過去的季節中,
08:21
they manhandled them across the ice
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他們將這些冰雪搬運出冰層
08:23
to waiting aircraft.
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以等待空運。
08:25
The 109th Air National Guard
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109號空軍護衛隊
08:28
flew the most recent shipment of ice
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將最近的冰雪
08:30
back to the coast of Antarctica,
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運到 南極洲海岸,
08:32
where it was boarded onto a freighter,
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在這裡將會被搬上貨輪,
08:35
shipped across the tropics to California,
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穿過熱帶以來到加州,
08:38
unloaded, put on a truck,
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卸貨並裝運上貨車,
08:40
driven across the desert
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穿過沙漠
08:42
to the National Ice Core Laboratory in Denver, Colorado,
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抵達位於丹佛(科羅拉多州)的國家冰雪中心研究室
08:44
where, as we speak,
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在那裡,正於我們所說的那樣,
08:46
scientists are now slicing this material up
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科學家將材料切成片
08:48
for samples, for analysis,
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以製成用於分析的樣品,
08:50
to be distributed
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再將樣品分送到 。
08:52
to the laboratories around the country
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全國各地和歐洲 的
08:54
and in Europe.
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實驗室裡
08:57
Antarctica was this planet's
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南極洲是
09:00
last empty quarter --
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人類不斷擴張
09:02
the blind spot
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的世界視野下
09:04
in our expanding vision of the world.
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地球的最後一個未被探研的盲點。
09:06
Early explorers
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早期的探險家們
09:08
sailed off the edge of the map,
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航海來到地圖的邊緣地帶
09:10
and they found a place
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他們找到一個
09:12
where the normal rules of time and temperature
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一般的時間和溫度規則
09:14
seem suspended.
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似乎都暫時失效的地區。
09:18
Here, the ice seems a living presence.
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在這裡,冰雪就如同活生生的存在。
09:21
The wind that rubs against it
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暴風雪不斷地侵蝕著南極洲,
09:23
gives it voice.
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賜於它獨特的魅力。
09:26
It is a voice of experience.
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這是一種有魅力的體驗。
09:29
It is a voice we should heed.
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而這正是我們所需要的嗓音。
09:33
Thank you.
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謝謝大家
09:35
(Applause)
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(掌聲)
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