The future of money | Neha Narula

翻译人员: shuishui yu 校对人员: Bighead Ge

I want to tell you about the future of money.

我今天的话题是关于货币的未来

Let's start with a story about this culture

我们先从一个20世纪早期的故事开始

that lived in Micronesia in the early 1900s, called the Yap.

这个故事发生在密克罗尼西亚联邦里一个叫做雅浦（Yap）的小岛上

我提到这个雅浦岛的原因是

Now, I want to tell you about the Yap

because their form of money is really interesting.

他们使用的货币非常有趣

They use these limestone discs called Rai stones.

他们使用的货币是由石灰岩凿刻出来的圆盘

称为“拉伊石币”

Now, the Yap don't actually move these Rai stones around

不同于我们平时花钱的方式

雅浦人并不随身带着“拉伊”

or exchange them the way we do with our coins,

也不像我们这样兑换硬币

because Rai stones can get to be pretty massive.

因为他们的“拉伊石币”实在太重了！

The largest is about four tons and 12 feet across.

最大的石币可重达4吨，直径达到3.6米

So the Yap just keep track of who owns part of what stone.

所以雅浦人只是记录下谁拥有哪些石币的哪个部分

有一个关于雅浦岛船员的故事

There's a story about these sailors

that were transporting a stone across the ocean

他们在运输一块石币回到岛上的途中

when they ran into some trouble and the stone actually fell in.

遇上海难而石沉大海

The sailors got back to the main island

当船员们回到岛上

and they told everyone what had happened.

把海上所发生的事告诉了大家

最后大家一致决定，

And everyone decided that, actually, yes,

那些船员丢失的石币仍然是他们财产的一部分

the sailors had the stone and -- why not? -- it still counted.

他们确实拥有过那块石币，为什么不算数呢？

即使那块石币已经沉入海底

Even though it was at the bottom of the ocean,

它仍然是雅浦经济的一部分

it was still part of the Yap economy.

You might think that this was just a small culture

你可能会觉得这只是一百多年前，

存在于一个小岛上的经济文化

a hundred years ago.

But things like this happen in the Western world as well,

但类似的经济文化也存在于欧洲

and the Yap actually still use a form of these stones.

即使现如今，雅浦人也仍然把石币作为一种交易货币

In 1932, the Bank of France asked the United States

1932年时，法兰西银行向美国提出申请——

to convert their holdings from dollars into gold.

希望把银行中的美元兑换成黄金

But it was too inconvenient to think about actually shipping

但想想看，

要把数额巨大的黄金运回欧洲，

这是件多么困难的事

all of that gold over to Europe.

So instead, someone went to where that gold was being stored

最后有人想出了一个方法——

法兰西银行派出工作人员飞往美国黄金储备处

and they just labeled it as belonging to France now.

把属于法国的黄金打上标记

And everyone agreed that France owned the gold.

所有人都承认这些黄金是属于法国的

It's just like those Rai stones.

这就像之前提到的石灰岩石币不是吗？

The point I want to make with these two examples

我提到这两个例子的原因是

is that there's nothing inherently valuable

没有东西是存在固有价值的

about a dollar or a stone or a coin.

不论是美元、石头还是硬币

The only reason these things have any value

这些东西拥有价值只是因为

is because we've all decided they should.

我们赋予了它们价值

And because we've decided that,

也正是因为我们这样定义，

they do.

它们才有价值

Money is about the exchanges and the transactions

金钱是存在我们之间，

用于交换和交易的东西

that we have with each other.

Money isn't anything objective.

钱并不是客观具体存在的事物

It's about a collective story that we tell each other about value.

它是关于价值的故事的集合

帮助我们互相了解价值

A collective fiction.

也是虚构的集合

And that's a really powerful concept.

这是一种很强大的概念

在过去二十年里

In the past two decades,

we've begun to use digital money.

我们才刚开始使用数字货币

So I get paid via direct deposit,

我的工资直接存入我的储蓄账户

I pay my rent via bank transfer,

我通过银行转账来支付房租、

网上缴税

I pay my taxes online.

每个月我薪水中的一小部分

And every month,

a small amount of money is deducted from my paycheck

都会存入我退休账户里的互惠基金名下

and invested in mutual funds in my retirement account.

All of these interactions

毫不夸张的说

are literally just changing 1's and 0's on computers.

所有这些交易行为只是电脑程序中1和0的改变

There's not even anything physical, like a stone or a coin.

甚至都没有像石头或者硬币那样的实实在在的物质存在

Digital money makes it so that I can pay someone around the world

数字货币的使用

可以让遥远之外的某人在几秒之内就收到钱

in seconds.

Now when this works,

这是因为有庞大的机构来保障

it's because there are large institutions underwriting every 1 or 0

电脑程序里1、0之间变化的可靠性

that changes on a computer.

And when it doesn't,

如果不能顺利进行

it's often the fault of those large institutions.

说明那些庞大机构们出现了故障

Or at least, it's up to them to fix the problem.

或者至少说，他们需要去解决这个问题

And a lot of times, they don't.

但大多数时，他们并不这样做

There's a lot of friction in the system.

在这个系统中存在很多的摩擦

How long did it take the US credit card companies

美国信用卡公司花了多久才让芯片技术和密码得到应用？

to implement chip and pin?

Half my credit cards still don't work in Europe.

我仍然有一半的信用卡不能在欧洲使用

That's friction.

这就是摩擦

Transferring money across borders and across currencies

跨境和跨货币汇款可是需要收取高昂的手续费的

is really expensive:

friction.

这也是摩擦

An entrepreneur in India can set up an online business in minutes,

印度的企业家可以在很短的时间内建立一个网络在线业务

but it's hard for her to get loans and to get paid:

但她却很难获得贷款和付款

friction.

另外一种摩擦

Our access to digital money and our ability to freely transact

数字货币的使用和自由交易

is being held captive by these gatekeepers.

被这些交换服务器们所控制

And there's a lot of impediments in the system slowing things down.

并且系统中存在很多的阻碍减缓了这流程

That's because digital money isn't really mine,

这是因为数字货币并不像矿产

it's entries in databases that belong to my bank,

它只是数据库的入口

my credit card company or my investment firm.

存在于我的银行、信用卡公司或是投资公司

And these companies have the right to say "no."

而这些公司有权说“不”

If I'm a PayPal merchant

假设我是一个贝宝（PayPal：全球最大的在线支付平台）上的卖家

and PayPal wrongly flags me for fraud,

如果贝宝错误地把我标记为诈骗分子

that's it.

那么我的账户便会被冻结

My account gets frozen, and I can't get paid.

我也收不到付款

These institutions are standing in the way of innovation.

这些机构急需变革

How many of you use Facebook photos, Google Photos,

你们有多少人在用脸书相册、谷歌照片、Instagram呢？

Instagram?

My photos are everywhere.

我的照片到处都是

They are on my phone, they're on my laptop,

比如手机、笔记本电脑、旧手机、Dropbox

they're on my old phone, they're in Dropbox.

They're on all these different websites and services.

从这些各种各样的网站、服务器上，

都可以找到我的照片

And most of these services don't work together.

但大部分的网站却没有建立互相合作

They don't inter-operate.

更不存在交互操作

And as a result,

结果可想而知

my photo library is a mess.

我的相册全是乱糟糟的

The same thing happens

同样的情况也发生在货币控制机构

when institutions control the money supply.

A lot of these services don't inter-operate,

很多这些服务商并没有进行互相合作

and as a result, this blocks what we can do with payment.

这限制了我们付款行为

And it makes transaction costs go up.

这也使得交易费用的上涨

So far, we've been through two phases of money.

截至到现在，我们已经经历了两种货币形式

In an analog world, we had to deal with these physical objects,

在模拟世界里

我们不得不处理客观物品

and money moved at a certain speed -- the speed of humans.

货币移动的速度也就是人们的速度

In a digital world, money can reach much farther and is much faster,

但在数字世界，货币可以达到更远的地方，速度也更快

but we're at the mercy of these gatekeeper institutions.

但依旧受货币机构的控制

Money only moves at the speed of banks.

转移速度只能靠银行的速度

We're about to enter a new phase of money.

一种新的货币模式正在逐渐形成

The future of money is programmable.

未来的货币是可以程序化的

When we combine software and currency,

当我们把软件和货币结合在一起

money becomes more than just a static unit of value,

货币不仅仅是一种静态的价值单位

and we don't have to rely on institutions for security.

我们也不需要再依赖于各大机构的安全系统

In a programmable world,

在可编程的世界里

we remove humans and institutions from the loop.

人类和机构不再参与到金钱交易的圈子里

And when this happens,

当这样的情况发生后

we won't even feel like we're transacting anymore.

我们甚至感受不到我们正在进行交易

Money will be directed by software,

资金将会在软件的运行指导下

and it will just safely and securely flow.

安全放心地进行交易

Cryptocurrencies are the first step of this evolution.

加密货币将是货币革新的第一步

Cryptocurrencies are digital money

加密货币是一种不需要政府机构或者银行参与的数字货币

that isn't run by any government or bank.

It's money designed to work in a world without intermediaries.

是一种不需要媒介也能实现其功能的货币

Bitcoin is the most ubiquitous cryptocurrency,

比特币便是一种如今最广泛应用的加密货币

but there are hundreds of them.

而且它有几百种存在形式

There's Ethereum, Litecoin, Stellar, Dogecoin,

比如其中一些比较流行的币种——

以太币，莱特币，恒星币，多吉币

and those are just a few of the more popular ones.

它们也都是真实的货币

And these things are real money.

The sushi restaurant down my street

我住的那条街上的寿司店也可以用比特币结账

takes Bitcoin.

I have an app on my phone that I can use to buy sashimi.

我可以用我手机上的一个应用程序给生鱼片付款

But it's not just for small transactions.

但比特币不仅仅应用于小额付款

In March, there was a transaction that moved around 100,000 bitcoins.

今年三月份 有一笔交易高达10万比特币

That's the equivalent of 40 million US dollars.

近似于4千万美元

Cryptocurrencies are based on a special field of mathematics

加密货币是基于一种特殊的数学算法

called cryptography.

称为密码学

Cryptography is the study of how to secure communication,

密码学是一门关于保障通信安全的学科

and it's about two really important things:

其中有两件特别重要的事——

masking information so it can be hidden in plain sight,

1. 为信息加密，使之能隐藏在简单的形式下

and verifying a piece of information's source.

2. 核实一小部分的信息来源

Cryptography underpins so many of the systems around us.

密码学是存在于我们周围很多系统的基础

And it's so powerful that at times

由于密码学是如此的有用，

the US government has actually classified it as a weapon.

美国政府甚至把它列为一种武器

During World War II, breaking cryptosystems like Enigma

在二战时期，破译类似恩尼格码的密码

was critical to decoding enemy transmissions

在解译敌方通信中起着至关重要的作用

and turning the tide of the war.

甚至改变了战争的大潮

Today, anyone with a modern web browser is running

如今任何人都在用的浏览器

a pretty sophisticated cryptosystem.

也是由一套复杂的密码系统支持运行的

It's what we use to secure our interactions on the Internet.

它保障了我们在使用网络、输入密码以及发送金融信息的安全性

It's what makes it safe for us to type our passwords in

and to send financial information to websites.

So what the banks used to give us --

那我们熟知的银行提供了什么服务呢？

trustworthy digital money transfer --

——可靠的数字货币交易

we can now get with a clever application of cryptography.

当密码学投入使用后

这意味着我们不再需要依赖于银行去确保我们交易的安全性

And this means that we don't have to rely on the banks anymore

to secure our transactions.

We can do it ourselves.

我们自己也可以保障我们的交易安全

Bitcoin is based on the very same idea that the Yap used,

比特币的概念和雅浦币类似

this collective global knowledge of transfers.

全球交易认知的集合

In Bitcoin, I spend by transferring Bitcoin,

在比特币世界里，我花费的是比特币

and I get paid when someone transfers Bitcoin to me.

收入也以比特币的形式获得

Imagine that we had this magic paper.

假设这是张有魔法的纸

So the way that this paper works is I can give you a sheet of it

当我把这张纸给你后

and if you write something on it,

你在纸上写的任何东西都会出现在我的这张纸上

it will magically appear on my piece as well.

Let's say we just give everyone this paper

假设每个人都有这张神奇的纸

and everyone writes down the transfers that they're doing

当每个人都写下他们在比特币系统里的交易

in the Bitcoin system.

All of these transfers get copied around to everyone else's pieces of paper.

那每个人的纸上都会同时显示这些交易信息

And I can look at mine

而我的纸上，

and I'll have a list of all of the transfers that are happening

也会有在整个比特币系统里发生的所有交易流程

in the entire Bitcoin economy.

This is actually what's happening with the Bitcoin blockchain,

实际上 在比特币区块链里发生的所有交易

which is a list of all of the transactions in Bitcoin.

就是以这种方式进行

Except, it's not done through paper.

只是交易方式不是在纸上进行的

It's done through computer code,

而是在整个世界的互联网内，

running on thousands of networked computers

around the world.

成千上万计算机里的程序里运行

All of these computers are collectively confirming

所有这些计算机都共同记录了，

who owns what Bitcoin.

谁拥有多少比特币

So the Bitcoin blockchain is core to how Bitcoin works.

所以比特币区块链是比特币能顺利运行的关键

But where do bitcoins actually come from?

但这些比特币从哪儿来呢？

Well, the code is designed to create new Bitcoin

比特币来源于计划好的编译程序

according to a schedule.

And the way that it works is that to get those Bitcoin,

想要获得比特币

I have to solve a puzzle -- a random cryptographic puzzle.

则必须解开谜题

一种随机密码谜题

假如我们有15个骰子

Imagine that we had 15 dice,

and we were throwing these dice over and over again.

我们不停地投掷这些骰子

Whenever the dice come up all sixes,

当所有的骰子都是六时，设定为我们赢

we say that we win.

This is very close to what these computers are all actually doing.

这近似于所有计算机的工作模式

They're trying over and over again to land on the right number.

计算机不停地进行运算

以得到正确的数字

And when they do,

当正确的数字被计算出来，

we say that they've solved the puzzle.

我们说我们解开了“谜题”

The computer that solves the puzzle

解开了谜题的计算机便把结果发布到互联网上

publishes its solution to the rest of the network

and collects its reward: new bitcoins.

并获得新的比特币作为奖励

And in the act of solving this puzzle,

在解开谜题的过程中

these computers are actually helping to secure the Bitcoin blockchain

这些计算机也在逐渐加强比特币区块链的安全性

and add to the list of transactions.

并把它添加入交易列表中

There are actually people all over the world running this software,

而在全球范围内 确实有人运行这样的程序

and we call them Bitcoin miners.

他们被称之为比特币矿工

Anyone can become a Bitcoin miner.

每个人都能成为比特币矿工

You can go download the software right now

你现在就可以从网上下载这个程序

and run it in your computer and try to collect some bitcoins.

在计算机上运行来赚取比特币

I can't say that I would recommend it,

但我并不建议大家这样做

because right now, the puzzle is so hard and the network is so powerful,

因为现在随着谜题越来越难，

而互联网又是如此的强大

that if I tried to mine Bitcoin on my laptop,

我曾经试过用我自己的电脑挖取比特币

I probably wouldn't see any for about two million years.

但我想我要在两百万年后才能挖到一个比特币

The miners, professional miners, use this special hardware

特殊的硬件被设计出来

以满足专业的“矿工”需求

that's designed to solve the puzzle really fast.

因为它们可以提供非常快的计算能力

Now, the Bitcoin network and all of this special hardware,

据估计，现如今比特币网络以及所有的专用硬件所消耗的总能源

there are estimates that the amount of energy it uses

is equivalent to that of a small country.

接近于一个小国家所使用的能源

So, the first set of cryptocurrencies

第一代加密货币的运行速度比较慢，

are a little bit slow and a little bit cumbersome.

效率也比较低

But the next generation is going to be so much better and so much faster.

但它也在渐渐变得更快更好

Cryptocurrencies are the first step

要想进入一个全球性程序化货币的世界

to a world with a global programmable money.

加密货币是需要迈出的第一步

And in a world with programmable money,

在程序化货币的世界里

I can pay anyone else securely

我可以放心的把钱支付给任何人

without having to sign up or ask permission,

而不用我的签名或是得到相关机构的许可

or do a conversion or worry about my money getting stuck.

也不需要兑换货币或者担忧上当受骗

And I can send money around the world.

我的钱在全世界范围都可以使用

This is a really amazing thing.

这是件多棒的事呢！

It's the idea of permission-less innovation.

这个想法是一个不需要授予权限的革新

The Internet caused an explosion of innovation,

互联网促成了改革爆炸

because it was built upon an open architecture.

因为它是建立在一个开发的空间架构

And just like the Internet changed the way we communicate,

正如互联网改变了我们的交流方式

programmable money is going to change the way we pay,

程序化货币将会改变我们的支付方式，

allocate and decide on value.

对价值的分配以及确定

So what kind of world does programmable money create?

所以程序化货币能建立一个怎样的世界？

Imagine a world where I can rent out my healthcare data

想象一下这样的世界——

我可以把我的健康数据租用给制药公司

to a pharmaceutical company.

They can run large-scale data analysis

他们能进行基于大范围的数据分析

and provide me with a cryptographic proof

随后我将会收到一个验证密码

that shows they're only using my data in a way that we agreed.

只有通过我的验证，制药公司才有权使用我的数据

And they can pay me for what they find out.

如果他们发现了什么有用的信息

我会获得相应的报酬

Instead of signing up for streaming services

我们将不用先去申请流媒体服务，

然后交纳有线电视费

and getting a cable bill,

what if my television analyzed my watching habits

取而代之的是，

and recommended well-priced content that fit within my budget

电视程序能分析出我的喜好

推荐一个价位合适，又符合我喜好的节目目录

that I would enjoy?

Imagine an Internet without ads,

想象一下没有任何广告的网络

because instead of paying with our attention when we view content,

我们不再需要关注于节目目录

we just pay.

我们只要付钱就可以

Interestingly, things like micro-payments

有趣的是

类似微支付的方式

are actually going to change the way security works in our world,

能改变现在所使用的安全保障方式

because once we're better able to allocate value,

因为一旦我们能更好的分配价值

people will use their money and their energies

我们会把金钱和能源都利用在

for more constructive things.

更加有建设性的事情上

If it cost a fraction of a cent to send an email,

如果发送一封邮件需要支付零点几美分

would we still have spam?

那还会有垃圾邮件吗？

We're not at this world yet,

那样的世界还未到来

but it's coming.

但很快就能实现

Right now, it's like we're in a world that is seeing the first automobile.

现在的状况就类似于当初汽车的首次亮相

The first cryptocurrency, like the first car,

首次出现的加密货币就像那第一辆汽车

is slow and hard to understand and hard to use.

速度慢、令人费解，也不好操作

Digital money, like the horse and carriage,

数字货币就像马匹和马车

works pretty well,

现如今依旧运行得很好

and the whole world economy is built on it.

整个世界的经济也基于数字货币

If you were the first person on your block

如果你是你们街区第一个拥有内燃发动机的汽车的人

to get a car with an internal combustion engine,

周围的邻居可能都会认为你疯了

your neighbors would probably think you were crazy:

"Why would you want this large, clunky machine

为什么你会用那样庞大笨重的机器

that breaks down all the time, that lights on fire,

还总是出现故障或者着起火来

and is still slower than a horse?"

速度也不如马车快

But we all know how that story turns out.

但我们都知道后面发生了什么

We're entering a new era of programmable money.

我们正步入一个程序化货币的时代

And it's very exciting, but it's also a little bit scary.

这很振奋人心，但也有点令人惊慌

Cryptocurrencies can be used for illegal transactions,

加密货币也能够用于非法交易

just like cash is used for crime in the world today.

就像现在的现金犯罪一样

When all of our transactions are online,

如果我们所有的交易都在网上进行

what does that mean for surveillance -- who can see what we do?

谁能成为监管者呢？

Who's advantaged in this new world and who isn't?

在那样的新世界，谁能获利，谁又不能呢？

Will I have to start to pay for things that I didn't have to pay for before?

我需要支付一些我现在并不需要支付的项目吗？

Will we all become slaves to algorithms and utility functions?

我们都会成为算法和应用函数的奴隶吗？

All new technology comes with trade-offs.

新技术的应用都需要我们舍弃一些东西

The Internet brought us a lot of ways to waste time.

互联网提供了各种各样浪费时间的方式

But it also greatly increased productivity.

但它同时也大幅度提高了生产率

Mobile phones are annoying

手机也有利弊

because they make me feel like I have to stay connected to work

我不得不无时无刻地关注外面的状况

all the time.

But they also help me stay connected to friends and family.

但它同时也让我和家人朋友保持联系

The new sharing economy is going to eliminate some jobs.

新的共享经济也会限制一些工种

But it's also going to create new, flexible forms of employment.

但它也会建立起一个新兴灵活的雇佣形式

With programmable money,

程序货币

we decouple the need for large, trusted institutions

打破了我们和庞大的网络安全保障机构之间的联系

from the architecture of the network.

也能推动货币革新

And this pushes innovation in money out to the edges, where it belongs.

突破它的范围限制

Programmable money democratizes money.

程序货币使得货币变得民主化

And because of this, things are going to change and unfold

事物甚至会以我们不能预测的方式，

in ways that we can't even predict.

改变和呈现出来

Thank you.

谢谢大家！

(Applause)