The future of money | Neha Narula

譯者: Lilian Chiu 審譯者: Chia Hsun Huang

I want to tell you about the future of money.

我想要和各位談談貨幣的未來。

Let's start with a story about this culture

我們先從一個文化故事開始，

that lived in Micronesia in the early 1900s, called the Yap.

與二十世紀初期 位於密克羅尼西亞的雅浦有關。

Now, I want to tell you about the Yap

我想要和各位談雅浦，

because their form of money is really interesting.

是因為他們的貨幣形式很有意思。

They use these limestone discs called Rai stones.

他們用一種叫做 雅浦島石幣的石灰石圓盤。

Now, the Yap don't actually move these Rai stones around

雅浦人並不會真的 把這些石幣搬來搬去，

or exchange them the way we do with our coins,

或是像我們彼此交換硬幣，

because Rai stones can get to be pretty massive.

因為雅浦島石幣又大又重。

The largest is about four tons and 12 feet across.

最大的重達 4 噸，長12 英呎。

So the Yap just keep track of who owns part of what stone.

所以雅浦人只記錄石幣的所有權。

There's a story about these sailors

傳說有一群水手

that were transporting a stone across the ocean

要把一塊石幣運過海洋，

when they ran into some trouble and the stone actually fell in.

但他們碰上麻煩，石幣落入海中。

The sailors got back to the main island

水手們回到主島嶼後，

and they told everyone what had happened.

告訴大家事情經過。

And everyone decided that, actually, yes,

大家一致決定，一點也沒錯， 這些水手擁有那塊石頭，

the sailors had the stone and -- why not? -- it still counted.

所以，為什麼不？它還是算數。

Even though it was at the bottom of the ocean,

雖然石幣沉到海底，

it was still part of the Yap economy.

它仍屬於雅浦經濟的一部份。

You might think that this was just a small culture

你們可能認為，

這不過是個數百年前的地方文化。

a hundred years ago.

But things like this happen in the Western world as well,

但像這樣的事也會發生在西方世界，

and the Yap actually still use a form of these stones.

且雅浦現在仍然以 某種形式使用這些石幣。

In 1932, the Bank of France asked the United States

1932 年，法國的中央銀行請美國

to convert their holdings from dollars into gold.

把他們的股份從美元轉換成黃金。

But it was too inconvenient to think about actually shipping

但試想將所有的黃金運送到歐洲

all of that gold over to Europe.

會是多麼不方便。

So instead, someone went to where that gold was being stored

所以，取而代之， 有人跑去存放黃金的地方，

and they just labeled it as belonging to France now.

他們只是把黃金給標記為 「現在屬於法國」。

And everyone agreed that France owned the gold.

大家都同意法國擁有這些黃金。

It's just like those Rai stones.

這就和雅浦島的石幣一樣。

The point I want to make with these two examples

用這兩個例子，我想建立的論點是，

is that there's nothing inherently valuable

美元、石頭、或硬幣本身

about a dollar or a stone or a coin.

並沒有與生俱來的價值。

The only reason these things have any value

它們會有價值的唯一原因，

is because we've all decided they should.

是因為我們一同賦予它們價值。

And because we've decided that,

因為我們這麼決定，

they do.

它們就有價值了。

Money is about the exchanges and the transactions

貨幣的重點

在於我們彼此之間的交換和交易，

that we have with each other.

Money isn't anything objective.

貨幣並不是客觀的。

It's about a collective story that we tell each other about value.

它是人們相互認同， 有關價值的集體故事。

A collective fiction.

一個集體的虛構故事。

And that's a really powerful concept.

而這是個很強大的概念。

In the past two decades,

過去二十年，

we've begun to use digital money.

我們開始用數位貨幣。

So I get paid via direct deposit,

我透過電子轉帳的方式領薪，

I pay my rent via bank transfer,

我運用銀行轉帳支付房租，

I pay my taxes online.

我在線上付稅款。

And every month,

每個月，

a small amount of money is deducted from my paycheck

我的薪水會有一小部份被扣除，

and invested in mutual funds in my retirement account.

投資到我退休帳戶的共同基金裡。

All of these interactions

所有這些互動

are literally just changing 1's and 0's on computers.

其實就只是改變 電腦上的 0 和 1 而已。

There's not even anything physical, like a stone or a coin.

沒有任何實體的東西， 比如石頭或硬幣。

Digital money makes it so that I can pay someone around the world

因為有數位貨幣，

我可以在幾秒鐘內 就付錢給世界各地的人。

in seconds.

Now when this works,

這方式能行得通，

it's because there are large institutions underwriting every 1 or 0

是因為有大型機構承保

每個在電腦上改變的 1 或 0。

that changes on a computer.

And when it doesn't,

這方式出問題時，

it's often the fault of those large institutions.

通常就是這些大型機構的錯。

Or at least, it's up to them to fix the problem.

或至少，要由它們來解決問題。

And a lot of times, they don't.

但很多時候，它們沒解決問題。

There's a lot of friction in the system.

在這個系統中有很多摩擦。

How long did it take the US credit card companies

美國的信用卡公司要花多久

to implement chip and pin?

才能導入密碼刷卡支付系統？

Half my credit cards still don't work in Europe.

我有一半的信用卡 在歐洲還是不能用。

That's friction.

那就是摩擦。

Transferring money across borders and across currencies

跨國界、跨貨幣來做轉帳

is really expensive:

是很昂貴的：

friction.

摩擦。

An entrepreneur in India can set up an online business in minutes,

印度的創業家可以在幾分鐘內 架起一間線上公司，

but it's hard for her to get loans and to get paid:

但那公司卻很難取得貸款和營收：

friction.

摩擦。

Our access to digital money and our ability to freely transact

我們使用數位貨幣與 進行自由交易的權限，

is being held captive by these gatekeepers.

處處受到這些守門者的控制。

And there's a lot of impediments in the system slowing things down.

而系統中的諸多阻礙， 導致效率下降。

That's because digital money isn't really mine,

那是因為數位貨幣並不真的屬於我。

it's entries in databases that belong to my bank,

它是資料庫中的記錄， 屬於我的銀行、

my credit card company or my investment firm.

我的信用卡公司或投資公司。

And these companies have the right to say "no."

這些公司有權說「不」。

If I'm a PayPal merchant

如果我是 Paypal 商人，

and PayPal wrongly flags me for fraud,

而 Paypal 誤把我標記為詐欺，

that's it.

就沒輒了。

My account gets frozen, and I can't get paid.

我的帳戶會被凍結，無法領錢。

These institutions are standing in the way of innovation.

這些機構阻擋了創新。

How many of you use Facebook photos, Google Photos,

在座有多少人會用 臉書照片、Google 照片、

Instagram?

Instagram？

My photos are everywhere.

我的照片到處都是。

They are on my phone, they're on my laptop,

從我的手機、筆電、

they're on my old phone, they're in Dropbox.

舊手機，到 Dropbox。

They're on all these different websites and services.

它們被放在各種 不同的網站和服務上。

And most of these services don't work together.

這些服務大部份都沒有彼此合作。

They don't inter-operate.

它們不會互操作。

And as a result,

因此，

my photo library is a mess.

我的照片收藏是一團亂。

The same thing happens

同樣的事情將一再發生，

when institutions control the money supply.

只要機構掌控了貨幣供應。

A lot of these services don't inter-operate,

許多這些服務無法互操作，

and as a result, this blocks what we can do with payment.

因此，造成我們付款時的不便。

And it makes transaction costs go up.

也讓交易的成本上升。

So far, we've been through two phases of money.

目前，我們已經經過了 貨幣的兩個階段。

In an analog world, we had to deal with these physical objects,

在類比的世界， 我們要處理的是實體，

and money moved at a certain speed -- the speed of humans.

貨幣移動的速度固定── 即人類的速度。

In a digital world, money can reach much farther and is much faster,

數位時代的貨幣 能更快到達更遠的地方，

but we're at the mercy of these gatekeeper institutions.

但處在這些守門機構的擺佈下。

Money only moves at the speed of banks.

貨幣的移動速度只是銀行的速度。

We're about to enter a new phase of money.

我們即將進入貨幣的一個新階段。

The future of money is programmable.

未來的貨幣可用程式控制。

When we combine software and currency,

當我們結合軟體和通貨，

money becomes more than just a static unit of value,

貨幣不再只是價值的靜態單位，

and we don't have to rely on institutions for security.

我們不需因安全考量而依靠機構。

In a programmable world,

在可程控的世界，

we remove humans and institutions from the loop.

我們會把人類和機構從環路中移除。

And when this happens,

當這情況發生時，

we won't even feel like we're transacting anymore.

甚至感覺不到我們在交易。

Money will be directed by software,

貨幣會由軟體來主導，

and it will just safely and securely flow.

它將安全無慮地流動。

Cryptocurrencies are the first step of this evolution.

加密貨幣是這項演化的第一步。

Cryptocurrencies are digital money

加密貨幣是數位貨幣，

that isn't run by any government or bank.

不由任何政府或銀行來操作。

It's money designed to work in a world without intermediaries.

它被設計來運用於沒有中間人的世界。

Bitcoin is the most ubiquitous cryptocurrency,

比特幣是最普遍的加密貨幣，

but there are hundreds of them.

但加密貨幣的種類達數百種。

There's Ethereum, Litecoin, Stellar, Dogecoin,

有以太坊、萊特幣、 恒星幣、多吉幣，

and those are just a few of the more popular ones.

這些還只是比較熱門的幾種而已。

And these things are real money.

這些全是真貨幣。

The sushi restaurant down my street

我家街道上的壽司餐廳

takes Bitcoin.

能收比特幣。

I have an app on my phone that I can use to buy sashimi.

我的手機上有個應用程式， 可以用來買生魚片。

But it's not just for small transactions.

但不只是小型交易。

In March, there was a transaction that moved around 100,000 bitcoins.

三月時，有項價值 約十萬比特幣的交易。

That's the equivalent of 40 million US dollars.

等同於四千萬美金。

Cryptocurrencies are based on a special field of mathematics

加密貨幣奠基於 數學的一個特別領域，

called cryptography.

叫做密碼學。

Cryptography is the study of how to secure communication,

密碼學研究如何確保通訊安全，

and it's about two really important things:

它的重點有兩個：

masking information so it can be hidden in plain sight,

偽裝資訊，讓資訊不會顯而易見，

and verifying a piece of information's source.

以及驗證資訊的來源。

Cryptography underpins so many of the systems around us.

密碼學是我們周遭許多系統的基礎。

And it's so powerful that at times

它非常強大，

以致有時美國政府真把它歸類為武器。

the US government has actually classified it as a weapon.

During World War II, breaking cryptosystems like Enigma

二次大戰時，破解 如 Enigma 這類的加密系統，

was critical to decoding enemy transmissions

是譯解敵人電報

和扭轉戰爭局勢的關鍵。

and turning the tide of the war.

Today, anyone with a modern web browser is running

如今，任何使用網路瀏覽器的人，

a pretty sophisticated cryptosystem.

都運作著相當精密的加密系統。

It's what we use to secure our interactions on the Internet.

我們用它來確保安全的網路交易。

It's what makes it safe for us to type our passwords in

它能保障我們安全地輸入密碼

and to send financial information to websites.

及金融資訊到許多網站。

So what the banks used to give us --

所以，以前銀行給予我們的，

trustworthy digital money transfer --

「值得信賴的數位貨幣轉帳」

we can now get with a clever application of cryptography.

我們現在只要用一個聰明的 密碼學應用程式就可以做到。

And this means that we don't have to rely on the banks anymore

這意味著，我們不再 需要仰賴銀行來確保

to secure our transactions.

我們的交易安全了。

We can do it ourselves.

我們自己就能做到。

Bitcoin is based on the very same idea that the Yap used,

比特幣的基礎和雅浦人的 想法大同小異：

this collective global knowledge of transfers.

對於轉帳的共同認知。

In Bitcoin, I spend by transferring Bitcoin,

我藉由轉帳比特幣來付款，

and I get paid when someone transfers Bitcoin to me.

並透過他人轉入的比特幣， 來收取金錢。

Imagine that we had this magic paper.

想像我們有一種魔術紙。

So the way that this paper works is I can give you a sheet of it

它運作的方式是， 我可以給你一張這種紙，

and if you write something on it,

如果你在上面寫字，

it will magically appear on my piece as well.

它也會魔術般地出現在我的紙上。

Let's say we just give everyone this paper

假設我們給了每個人這種紙，

and everyone writes down the transfers that they're doing

每個人把自己用比特幣做的轉帳

in the Bitcoin system.

都紀錄下來。

All of these transfers get copied around to everyone else's pieces of paper.

所有的轉帳資訊都會 複製到其他人的紙上。

And I can look at mine

當我看著我的紙時，

and I'll have a list of all of the transfers that are happening

上面會出現整個比特幣經濟中

in the entire Bitcoin economy.

發生過的所有轉帳。

This is actually what's happening with the Bitcoin blockchain,

比特幣的區塊鏈就是這樣運作的，

which is a list of all of the transactions in Bitcoin.

它就是一長串用比特幣 進行交易的列表。

Except, it's not done through paper.

差別是，它用的不是紙。

It's done through computer code,

而是電腦程式，

running on thousands of networked computers

運行於上千台網路電腦上，

around the world.

遍布世界各地。

All of these computers are collectively confirming

所有的電腦會共同確認

who owns what Bitcoin.

誰擁有哪些比特幣。

So the Bitcoin blockchain is core to how Bitcoin works.

所以，比特幣區塊鏈是 比特幣運作的核心。

But where do bitcoins actually come from?

但比特幣到底是從哪裡冒出來的？

Well, the code is designed to create new Bitcoin

所設計的程式根據一個清單

according to a schedule.

來創造新的比特幣。

And the way that it works is that to get those Bitcoin,

它的運作方式是這樣的： 若要得到那些比特幣，

I have to solve a puzzle -- a random cryptographic puzzle.

我得解開一個謎題， 一個隨機的密碼謎題。

Imagine that we had 15 dice,

想像我們有十五個骰子，

and we were throwing these dice over and over again.

我們不斷重覆投擲這些骰子。

Whenever the dice come up all sixes,

當所有骰子都出現六時，

we say that we win.

我們就算贏。

This is very close to what these computers are all actually doing.

這些電腦運作方式，差不多就是這樣。

They're trying over and over again to land on the right number.

它們不斷嘗試去得到對的數字。

And when they do,

得到的時候，

we say that they've solved the puzzle.

它們就算是解開了謎題。

The computer that solves the puzzle

解開謎題的那台電腦

publishes its solution to the rest of the network

會把它的解法公開給其餘的電腦，

and collects its reward: new bitcoins.

然後領它的獎品：新的比特幣。

And in the act of solving this puzzle,

而在解這個謎題時，

these computers are actually helping to secure the Bitcoin blockchain

這些電腦其實正在確保 比特幣區塊鏈的安全，

and add to the list of transactions.

並擴增交易列表。

There are actually people all over the world running this software,

其實，世界各處都有人 在維持這套軟體運作，

and we call them Bitcoin miners.

我們稱他們是比特幣礦工。

Anyone can become a Bitcoin miner.

人人都可以成為比特幣礦工。

You can go download the software right now

各位現在就可以去下載這套軟體，

and run it in your computer and try to collect some bitcoins.

並用你們的電腦來執行， 試著去領一些比特幣。

I can't say that I would recommend it,

我不會說我建議這麼做，

because right now, the puzzle is so hard and the network is so powerful,

因為目前，謎題非常難解， 且這個網路非常強大，

that if I tried to mine Bitcoin on my laptop,

如果我試著用我的筆電 來開採比特幣，

I probably wouldn't see any for about two million years.

我很可能試了兩百萬年 也看不到任何成果。

The miners, professional miners, use this special hardware

這些職業礦工，會用特別的硬體，

that's designed to solve the puzzle really fast.

針對謎題，迅速破解。

Now, the Bitcoin network and all of this special hardware,

比特幣網路和所有這種特殊硬體，

there are estimates that the amount of energy it uses

估計所消耗的能源

is equivalent to that of a small country.

等同一個小國家用掉的。

So, the first set of cryptocurrencies

所以，第一組加密貨幣有點慢，

are a little bit slow and a little bit cumbersome.

有點不好用。

But the next generation is going to be so much better and so much faster.

但下一代就會好很多、快很多。

Cryptocurrencies are the first step

加密貨幣只是第一步，

to a world with a global programmable money.

朝向一個全球使用 可程控貨幣的世界前進。

And in a world with programmable money,

在使用可程控貨幣的世界中，

I can pay anyone else securely

我可以很安全地付錢給任何人，

without having to sign up or ask permission,

不需要註冊，亦不需取得許可，

or do a conversion or worry about my money getting stuck.

不用兌換，不用擔心取不出錢來。

And I can send money around the world.

且我可以將錢移到世界各地。

This is a really amazing thing.

這是非常了不起的。

It's the idea of permission-less innovation.

這是個無須許可的創新想法。

The Internet caused an explosion of innovation,

網際網路造成了創新的爆增，

because it was built upon an open architecture.

因為它是建立在開放的結構上。

And just like the Internet changed the way we communicate,

就像網際網路改變了 我們溝通的方式，

programmable money is going to change the way we pay,

可程控貨幣也將會改變我們付款、

allocate and decide on value.

分配、決定價值的方式。

So what kind of world does programmable money create?

可程控貨幣會創造出怎樣的世界？

Imagine a world where I can rent out my healthcare data

試想這樣的世界：

我能把醫療保健資料租給藥品公司。

to a pharmaceutical company.

They can run large-scale data analysis

他們可以做大規模的資料分析，

and provide me with a cryptographic proof

提供我加密的證據，

that shows they're only using my data in a way that we agreed.

證明他們只在雙方同意的 範圍內使用我的資料。

And they can pay me for what they find out.

且他們可根據發現結果付我錢。

Instead of signing up for streaming services

不再需要註冊串流服務，

and getting a cable bill,

不用收到有線帳單，

what if my television analyzed my watching habits

也許我的電視可以分析我的觀看習慣，

and recommended well-priced content that fit within my budget

並根據我的預算來推薦 價格理想且符合喜好的內容，

that I would enjoy?

這樣如何？

Imagine an Internet without ads,

想像一下沒有廣告的網際網路，

because instead of paying with our attention when we view content,

我們在瀏覽內容的時候， 與其付出注意力，

we just pay.

我們只要付錢就好。

Interestingly, things like micro-payments

有趣的是，

就像微支付真的會改變 這世界運作安全機制的方式，

are actually going to change the way security works in our world,

because once we're better able to allocate value,

因為一旦我們能更好地分配價值，

people will use their money and their energies

人們就會把他們的金錢和精力

for more constructive things.

用在更有建設性的事物上。

If it cost a fraction of a cent to send an email,

如果寄一封電子郵件需要花一分錢，

would we still have spam?

還會有廣告郵件嗎？

We're not at this world yet,

我們還沒有進入這樣的世界，

but it's coming.

但它即將來臨。

Right now, it's like we're in a world that is seeing the first automobile.

現在就好像我們正處於 看見首部汽車問世的世界中。

The first cryptocurrency, like the first car,

最初的加密貨幣就像是第一台汽車，

is slow and hard to understand and hard to use.

它很慢，難以理解，又難用。

Digital money, like the horse and carriage,

數位貨幣則像是馬和馬車，

works pretty well,

它們運作得很好，

and the whole world economy is built on it.

且全世界的經濟都建立在其上。

If you were the first person on your block

如果你是鄰坊內第一位

to get a car with an internal combustion engine,

購入內燃機的汽車的人，

your neighbors would probably think you were crazy:

你的鄰居可能以為你瘋了：

"Why would you want this large, clunky machine

「為什麼你要這個笨重的大機器，

that breaks down all the time, that lights on fire,

時常故障，還要靠火來點著，

and is still slower than a horse?"

且速度還比馬慢？」

But we all know how that story turns out.

但我們都知道這個故事後來的發展。

We're entering a new era of programmable money.

我們正在進入一個 可程控貨幣的新紀元。

And it's very exciting, but it's also a little bit scary.

這很讓人興奮， 但也有一點讓人害怕。

Cryptocurrencies can be used for illegal transactions,

加密貨幣可以被用來做非法交易，

just like cash is used for crime in the world today.

就像在現今的世界 現金可以用來犯罪。

When all of our transactions are online,

當所有的交易都在線上時，

what does that mean for surveillance -- who can see what we do?

監控的意義是什麼？ 誰可以看到我們在做什麼？

Who's advantaged in this new world and who isn't?

在這新世界中，誰有優勢、誰沒有？

Will I have to start to pay for things that I didn't have to pay for before?

我是否會需要開始支付一些 以前不用支付的費用？

Will we all become slaves to algorithms and utility functions?

我們是否都會變成 演算法和效用函數的奴隸？

All new technology comes with trade-offs.

所有的新技術都少不了權衡。

The Internet brought us a lot of ways to waste time.

網際網路帶給我們很多 可以浪費時間的方式。

But it also greatly increased productivity.

但它也大大地增加了生產力。

Mobile phones are annoying

行動電話很煩人，

because they make me feel like I have to stay connected to work

因為它讓我覺得隨時都得工作，

all the time.

全天候。

But they also help me stay connected to friends and family.

但它也協助我 與朋友及家人保持聯絡。

The new sharing economy is going to eliminate some jobs.

新的共享經濟將會淘汰一些工作。

But it's also going to create new, flexible forms of employment.

但也會創造出 具有彈性的新型就業形式。

With programmable money,

有了可程控的貨幣，

we decouple the need for large, trusted institutions

我們就能在網路結構中脫鉤，

不再依賴大型信賴機構。

from the architecture of the network.

And this pushes innovation in money out to the edges, where it belongs.

這就會把貨幣的創新 推向框架之外，它所屬之地。

Programmable money democratizes money.

可程控貨幣讓貨幣大眾化。

And because of this, things are going to change and unfold

因此，事物改變和發生的方式

in ways that we can't even predict.

將變得難以預測。

Thank you.

謝謝。

(Applause)

（掌聲）