Don Tapscott: Four principles for the open world

118,116 views ・ 2012-06-28

TED


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00:00
Translator: Joseph Geni Reviewer: Morton Bast
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翻译人员: Yuan Chen 校对人员: MANXI HUANG
00:16
Openness. It's a word that
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开放,这个词
00:19
denotes opportunity and possibilities.
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代表着机遇和发展潜力。
00:22
Open-ended, open hearth,
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开放式的,开放式壁炉,
00:24
open source, open door policy,
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开放的资源,门户开放政策,
00:27
open bar. (Laughter)
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露天酒吧,(笑声)
00:31
And everywhere the world is opening up,
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以及任何正在开放的地方,
00:33
and it's a good thing.
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这是一件好事。
00:35
Why is this happening?
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为什么会如此?
00:36
The technology revolution is opening the world.
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技术革新正在开放这个世界。
00:39
Yesterday's Internet was a platform
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过去,英特网是一个平台
00:42
for the presentation of content.
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用来发布信息。
00:44
The Internet of today is a platform for computation.
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今日的英特网已经成为了一个计算平台。
00:48
The Internet is becoming a giant
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英特网正在成长壮大成为一个巨大的
00:49
global computer, and every time you go on it,
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全球计算器。你每次上网、
00:52
you upload a video, you do a Google search,
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上传视频、在Google上搜索、
00:55
you remix something,
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重新混排一些材料,
00:56
you're programming this big global computer
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都是在编辑这个大型的全球计算器,
00:59
that we all share.
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这是大家共享的。
01:00
Humanity is building a machine,
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人类正在建造一个机器,
01:03
and this enables us to collaborate in new ways.
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这使我们能够用新的方式合作。
01:06
Collaboration can occur on
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这种合作是建立在
01:08
an astronomical basis.
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天文数字的基础上的。
01:11
Now a new generation is opening up the world as well.
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现在,新的一代也正在打开这个世界。
01:14
I started studying kids about 15 years ago,
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我从15年前开始研究孩子,
01:17
-- so actually 20 years ago now --
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事实上大概从二十年前就开始了。
01:19
and I noticed how my own children were
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我注意到我自己的孩子们
01:20
effortlessly able to use all this sophisticated technology,
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轻而易举就能应用这些成熟的科技,
01:24
and at first I thought,
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一开始,我以为
01:25
"My children are prodigies!" (Laughter)
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“我的孩子们是神童!”(笑声)
01:28
But then I noticed all their friends were like them,
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但很快我就意识到他们的朋友也这么厉害,
01:30
so that was a bad theory.
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原来他们没那么神。
01:32
So I've started working with a few hundred kids,
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我已经对上百个孩子进行过研究,
01:35
and I came to the conclusion
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于是我得出结论,
01:37
that this is the first generation to come of age
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他们是第一代接触
01:39
in the digital age,
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数码时代到来的孩子。
01:40
to be bathed in bits.
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沐浴在电脑数位中,
01:41
I call them the Net Generation.
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我称他们为“网络一代”
01:44
I said, these kids are different.
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我说过,这些孩子是不同的。
01:45
They have no fear of technology, because it's not there.
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他们不畏惧科技,因为科技是无形的。
01:48
It's like the air.
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就像空气一样。
01:49
It's sort of like, I have no fear of a refrigerator.
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这就有点像我不会惧怕冰箱一样。
01:53
And — (Laughter)
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而且-(笑声)
01:56
And there's no more powerful force to change
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这第一代“数字原住民”能改变任何一种体制,
01:58
every institution than the first generation of digital natives.
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没有比他们更为强大的力量了。
02:02
I'm a digital immigrant.
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我属于数字移民。
02:04
I had to learn the language.
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我不得不去学习这种“语言”。
02:07
The global economic crisis is opening up the world as well.
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全球经济危机也同样在打开这个世界。
02:10
Our opaque institutions from the Industrial Age,
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从工业时代的不透明体制,
02:13
everything from old models of the corporation,
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所有旧的公司体制,
02:15
government, media, Wall Street,
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到政府,媒体,华尔街,
02:18
are in various stages of being stalled or frozen
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都处于停滞或冻结
02:21
or in atrophy or even failing,
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甚至是萎缩或彻底失败的各个阶段,
02:24
and this is now creating a burning platform in the world.
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这样的危机正在全球范围创建一个“燃烧的平台”。
02:27
I mean, think about Wall Street.
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我的意思是,想象一下华尔街。
02:29
The core modus operandi of Wall Street almost brought down
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其核心运作模式几乎
02:32
global capitalism.
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让全球资本市场濒临崩溃。
02:35
Now, you know the idea of a burning platform,
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现在,你们了解了“燃烧的平台”这一概念,
02:36
that you're somewhere where the costs of staying where you are
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在这里,原地不动保持现状的成本
02:41
become greater than the costs of moving to something different,
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比改变现状所需的成本要高,
02:44
perhaps something radically different.
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也许是彻底地改变。
02:47
And we need to change
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我们需要改革
02:49
and open up all of our institutions.
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开放我们所有的体制。
02:51
So this technology push,
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这种技术推动,
02:52
a demographic kick from a new generation
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源于新一代的民主改革,
02:55
and a demand pull from a new
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来自新全球经济环境的
02:58
economic global environment
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一种需求
03:01
is causing the world to open up.
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正在促进全世界的开放进程。
03:02
Now, I think, in fact,
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现在,我认为,事实上
03:05
we're at a turning point in human history,
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我们正处在人类历史的一个转折点,
03:09
where we can finally now rebuild
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现在,我们终于能够重建
03:11
many of the institutions of the Industrial Age
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许多工业时代的体制,
03:13
around a new set of principles.
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制定一系列的新准则。
03:15
Now, what is openness?
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如今,什么才是开放?
03:17
Well, as it turns out, openness
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事实上,开放
03:19
has a number of different meanings,
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有许多不同的含义,
03:21
and for each there's a corresponding principle
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对于每一种含义,都有对应的原则
03:24
for the transformation of
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与文明的
03:25
civilization.
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转变相呼应。
03:27
The first is collaboration.
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第一种是合作。
03:31
Now, this is openness in the sense of the boundaries
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这种开放是组织机构边界概念上的开放,
03:33
of organizations becoming more porous and fluid
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组织机构应更为透明,灵活
03:36
and open.
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和开放。
03:38
The guy in the picture here,
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这个照片里的家伙,
03:40
I'll tell you his story.
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我要说一下他的故事。
03:41
His name is Rob McEwen.
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他叫Rob McEwen。
03:43
I'd like to say, "I have this think tank, we scour the world
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我想说“我有一个智囊团,我们寻遍全世界
03:45
for amazing case studies."
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就为了这些惊人的案例。”
03:47
The reason I know this story
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但我知道这个故事的原因是
03:49
is because he's my neighbor. (Laughter)
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他是我的邻居。(笑声)
03:53
He actually moved across the street from us,
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实际上,他搬去了我们街对面,
03:55
and he held a cocktail party
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并且办了一个鸡尾酒会
03:56
to meet the neighbors, and he says, "You're Don Tapscott.
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结识邻居,他说“你就是Don Tapscott阿。
03:58
I've read some of your books."
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我读过你几本书。”
03:59
I said, "Great. What do you do?"
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我答道,“不错阿。那你是做什么的?”
04:00
And he says, "Well I used to be a banker
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他回答:“嗯,我以前是个银行家
04:02
and now I'm a gold miner."
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现在我是一黄金开采商。”
04:03
And he tells me this amazing story.
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于是,他就向我诉说了这个神奇的故事。
04:06
He takes over this gold mine, and his geologists
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他接手了一个金矿,但他的地质学家们
04:09
can't tell him where the gold is.
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查不出哪里有金子。
04:10
He gives them more money for geological data,
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为了得到地质资料,他给了地质学家更多的报酬,
04:12
they come back, they can't tell
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然而他们回来,依然无法告诉他
04:13
him where to go into production.
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哪个方位适合投产。
04:15
After a few years, he's so frustrated he's ready
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几年后,他十分沮丧,决定要
04:19
to give up, but he has an epiphany one day.
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放弃,但有一天他突发奇想,
04:22
He wonders, "If my geologists don't know where the gold is,
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他想:“如果我的地质学家们不知道金子在哪里,
04:24
maybe somebody else does."
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也许其他人会知道呢。”
04:27
So he does a "radical" thing.
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所以他做了一件疯狂的事情。
04:29
He takes his geological data,
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他把手头的地质资料
04:30
he publishes it and he holds a contest on the Internet
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发布在网上,并发起了一个竞赛
04:33
called the Goldcorp Challenge.
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名为“黄金公司挑战赛”。
04:34
It's basically half a million dollars in prize money
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基本上奖金就是50万美金
04:38
for anybody who can tell me, do I have any gold,
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只要那个人可以告诉我,到底我有没有金子,
04:41
and if so, where is it? (Laughter)
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如果有的话,在哪儿能找到?(笑声)
04:45
He gets submissions from all around the world.
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他得到了来自全球各地的答复。
04:47
They use techniques that he's never heard of,
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大家利用各种他闻所未闻的科技手段。
04:49
and for his half a million dollars in prize money,
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为了他的50万美元奖金,
04:51
Rob McEwen finds 3.4 billion dollars worth of gold.
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Rob McEwen发现了价值34亿美金的金矿。
04:55
The market value of his company
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他的公司市值
04:57
goes from 90 million to 10 billion dollars,
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从9千万跃升至100亿美元。
05:00
and I can tell you, because he's my neighbor,
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我可以告诉你们,因为他是我的邻居,
05:02
he's a happy camper. (Laughter)
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他是一个快乐的家伙。(笑声)
05:06
You know, conventional wisdom says talent is inside, right?
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大家知道,传统智慧告诉我们天赋是内在的,不是么?
05:09
Your most precious asset goes out the elevator every night.
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你最为珍贵的财产每天都在悄然而逝。
05:13
He viewed talent differently.
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他用不同的眼光看待天赋。
05:15
He wondered, who are their peers?
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他想知道,谁是他们的同伙?
05:17
He should have fired his geology department, but he didn't.
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他早应该炒了那些地质学家,但他没有这么做。
05:21
You know, some of the best submissions
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你们知道么,有些网络上的回复
05:24
didn't come from geologists.
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并不是来自地质学家。
05:26
They came from computer scientists, engineers.
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而是来自电脑科学家,工程师。
05:28
The winner was a computer graphics company
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赢家是一家计算机图形公司
05:30
that built a three dimensional model of the mine
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他们建立了矿山的三维模型
05:32
where you can helicopter underground
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能在地下进行搜索
05:33
and see where the gold is.
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哪里有金矿。
05:36
He helped us understand that social media's becoming
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他帮助我们了解了社会媒体正在成为
05:39
social production.
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社会生产力。
05:41
It's not about hooking up online.
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这不只是挂在网上,
05:43
This is a new means of production in the making.
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而是一种正在形成的新生产模式。
05:46
And this Ideagora that he created, an open market, agora,
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这个他建立的“思想市场”,一个开放的市场,集市
05:50
for uniquely qualified minds,
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是为那些唯一有资格的头脑准备的,
05:53
was part of a change, a profound change in the deep structure
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这是变革的一部分,是我们的组织深层结构和
05:58
and architecture of our organizations,
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设计的一种深刻变化,
06:00
and how we sort of orchestrate capability to innovate,
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以及我们如何编排革新,
06:04
to create goods and services,
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创造物品和服务,
06:05
to engage with the rest of the world,
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与世界上的其他人协作的能力,
06:07
in terms of government, how we create public value.
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在政府方面,我们如何创造公共价值。
06:11
Openness is about collaboration.
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开放在于协作。
06:13
Now secondly, openness is about transparency.
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那么第二点,开放是关于透明化。
06:15
This is different. Here, we're talking about the communication
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这一点是不同的。我们谈论的是
06:18
of pertinent information to stakeholders of organizations:
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对与组织利益相关者的关联信息传递:
06:21
employees, customers, business partners, shareholders,
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员工,客户,生意伙伴,股东,
06:24
and so on.
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等等。
06:26
And everywhere, our institutions are becoming naked.
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全球的组织机构都在趋于透明化。
06:30
People are all bent out of shape about WikiLeaks,
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大家对于维基解密大为恼火,
06:33
but that's just the tip of the iceberg.
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但这只是冰山一角。
06:35
You see, people at their fingertips now, everybody,
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你们看,现在大家只要动动手指,每个人,
06:38
not just Julian Assange,
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不仅仅是Julian Assange(维基解密创始人),
06:40
have these powerful tools for finding out what's going on,
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拥有这些强大的工具去获知正在发生的事件,
06:43
scrutinizing, informing others,
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省查,告知他人,
06:44
and even organizing collective responses.
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甚至组织群体回复。
06:48
Institutions are becoming naked,
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组织机构正在变得裸露化,
06:50
and if you're going to be naked,
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如果你将要以裸体示人,
06:52
well, there's some corollaries that flow from that.
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那么,会有一些必然结果由此产生。
06:55
I mean, one is,
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我是说,其中之一。
06:56
fitness is no longer optional. (Laughter)
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健美不再是备选项。(笑声)
06:58
You know? Or if you're going to be naked, you'd better get buff.
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你们知道么?或者,如果你将要以裸体示人,你最好晒成浅黄色。
07:03
Now, by buff I mean, you need to have good value,
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我所说的晒成浅黄色,意思是你们需要拥有优良的价值,
07:06
because value is evidenced like never before.
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因为价值从没像现在这样暴露于人前。
07:08
You say you have good products.
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你说你有好产品,
07:09
They'd better be good.
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这些产品最好真的是好产品。
07:10
But you also need to have values.
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但你还需要价值。
07:12
You need to have integrity as part of your bones
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你需要诚信作为你骨骼的一部分
07:15
and your DNA as an organization,
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你的DNA作为一种组织,
07:17
because if you don't, you'll be unable to build trust,
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因为如果你没有,你将无法建立起信任感,
07:20
and trust is a sine qua non of this new network world.
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信任感是这个全新的网络世界中必不可少的。
07:24
So this is good. It's not bad.
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这样很好,并不坏。
07:27
Sunlight is the best disinfectant.
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阳光是最好的杀菌剂。
07:30
And we need a lot of sunlight in this troubled world.
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在这个乱七八糟的世界,我们需要大量的阳光。
07:34
Now, the third meaning and corresponding principle
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那么,开放的第三个含义和对应原则
07:37
of openness is about sharing.
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就是关于分享。
07:39
Now this is different than transparency.
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这与透明化截然不同。
07:41
Transparency is about the communication of information.
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透明化是关于信息的传递。
07:43
Sharing is about giving up assets, intellectual property.
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分享则是关于放弃财产,知识产权。
07:48
And there are all kinds of famous stories about this.
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关于这一点,有各种闻名的案例。
07:50
IBM gave away 400 million dollars of software
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IBM转让4亿美元的软件
07:53
to the Linux movement, and that gave them
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给Linux,这给了IBM
07:55
a multi-billion dollar payoff.
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数十亿美金的收益。
07:58
Now, conventional wisdom says,
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如今,传统智慧宣扬:
08:00
"Well, hey, our intellectual property belongs to us,
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2735
“嘿,我们的知识产权属于我们,
08:03
and if someone tries to infringe it, we're going to get out
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如果谁企图侵犯的话,我们就找
08:05
our lawyers and we're going to sue them."
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2348
律师告他们。“
08:07
Well, it didn't work so well for the record labels, did it?
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好吧,但这好像在唱片标签上不太奏效,不是么?
08:11
I mean, they took — They had a technology disruption,
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我的意思是,他们垄断了-造成了一种技术中断,
08:16
and rather than taking a business model innovation
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他们没有进行商业模式上的革新
08:19
to correspond to that, they took and sought a legal solution
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3952
去回应之,反而诉诸法律手段以求解决问题。
08:23
and the industry that brought you Elvis and the Beatles
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2313
曾经带给我们猫王和披头士的行业
08:25
is now suing children
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2032
现在正在起诉孩子们
08:27
and is in danger of collapse.
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而且面临破产。
08:31
So we need to think differently about intellectual property.
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2841
因此,我们需要从不同的角度来考虑知识产权了。
08:34
I'll give you an example.
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举个例子。
08:35
The pharmaceutical industry is in deep trouble.
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医药行业正深陷困境。
08:38
First of all, there aren't a lot of big inventions
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2605
首先,这个行业现在没有大的突破创新
08:40
in the pipeline, and this is a big problem for human health,
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在生产线上。这对于人类健康是个大问题,
08:43
and the pharmaceutical industry has got a bigger problem,
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5161
然而,医药行业还有一个更大的问题,
08:48
that they're about to fall off something
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1923
它们正要跌落,
08:50
called the patent cliff.
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1521
从我们所说的”专利悬崖“。
08:51
Do you know about this?
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你们了解这一点吗?
08:52
They're going to lose 20 to 35 percent of their revenue
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3004
他们将损失百分之20到35的收入
08:55
in the next 12 months.
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1627
在未来的12个月里。
08:57
And what are you going to do,
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1331
那么,你们要怎么做?
08:58
like, cut back on paper clips or something? No.
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3110
像是,削减开支还是什么其它的招? 不。
09:01
We need to reinvent the whole model of scientific research.
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我们需要的是革新整个科学研究模式。
09:06
The pharmaceutical industry needs to place assets
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医药行业需要把共享他们的资产
09:09
in a commons. They need to start sharing precompetitive research.
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他们需要开始分享竞争前的研究成果。
09:13
They need to start sharing
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2343
他们需要开始共享
09:16
clinical trial data,
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临床实验数据,
09:17
and in doing so, create a rising tide that could lift all boats,
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4271
这么做,能在整个行业创造一个上升趋势,
09:21
not just for the industry but
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561976
1942
这不仅仅是为了这个行业,而是
09:23
for humanity.
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2791
为了全人类。
09:26
Now, the fourth meaning
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2405
接下来,是开放的
09:29
of openness,
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第4个含义
09:31
and corresponding principle, is about empowerment.
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1999
和相对应的原则,即权力。
09:33
And I'm not talking about the motherhood sense here.
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2216
我不是要在这里讨论母性意识。
09:35
Knowledge and intelligence is power,
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3474
知识和智慧就是力量,
09:38
and as it becomes more distributed, there's a
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由于它变得越来越分散,就会有
09:41
concomitant distribution
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2545
伴随分布
09:44
and decentralization and disaggregation of power
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3631
和权力下放及分类
09:47
that's underway in the world today.
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1929
这是目前全世界正在面临的局面。
09:49
The open world is bringing freedom.
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开放的世界将带来自由。
09:52
Now, take the Arab Spring.
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2349
比如说,”阿拉伯之春“。
09:55
The debate about the role of social media
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1912
关于社会媒体角色和
09:57
and social change has been settled.
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1994
社会变革的争议被解决了。
09:59
You know, one word: Tunisia.
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你们知道的,一个词:突尼斯。
10:02
And then it ended up having a whole bunch of other words too.
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2346
然后最终演变出一大串其它词。
10:04
But in the Tunisian revolution,
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2342
但在突尼斯革命中,
10:07
the new media didn't cause the revolution;
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2127
新媒体没有引发革命;
10:09
it was caused by injustice.
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1780
是不公正引发了革命。
10:11
Social media didn't create the revolution;
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4237
社会媒体没有引发革命;
10:15
it was created by a new generation of young people
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2321
革命是由新一代的年轻人创造的
10:17
who wanted jobs and hope and
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1808
他们需要工作和希望
10:19
who didn't want to be treated as subjects anymore.
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4026
他们不想再被当作研究对象。
10:23
But just as the Internet drops transaction and collaboration
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3065
但是,正当英特网为商业和政府降低
10:26
costs in business and government,
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2368
交易和协作的成本的同时,
10:28
it also drops the cost of dissent, of rebellion,
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628896
2757
它也拉低了叛乱,逆反,
10:31
and even insurrection
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1829
甚至是暴动的成本
10:33
in ways that people didn't understand.
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2092
以一种让人难以理解的方式。
10:35
You know, during the Tunisian revolution,
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1823
你们知道,在突尼斯革命中,
10:37
snipers associated with the regime were killing
247
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2694
与政府勾结的狙击手杀害了
10:40
unarmed students in the street.
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1744
街上手无寸铁的学生。
10:41
So the students would take their mobile devices,
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641835
3021
因此学生们用他们的移动设备,
10:44
take a picture, triangulate the location,
250
644856
2653
拍下照片,三角定位,
10:47
send that picture to friendly military units,
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2201
并把照片寄给友好盟军,
10:49
who'd come in and take out the snipers.
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2409
让他们来消灭那些狙击手。
10:52
You think that social media is about hooking up online?
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652119
2534
你们还以为社会媒体仅仅意味着挂在网上吗?
10:54
For these kids, it was a military tool
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3027
对这些孩子来说,这是一种军事工具
10:57
to defend unarmed people from murderers.
255
657680
3126
使手无寸铁的平民免遭杀戮。
11:00
It was a tool of self-defense.
256
660806
2133
这是一种自我防卫的工具。
11:02
You know, as we speak today, young people
257
662939
2355
你们知道,正如我们今天说到的,年轻人
11:05
are being killed in Syria,
258
665294
2010
在叙利亚被杀害,
11:07
and up until three months ago,
259
667304
1810
直到3个月前,
11:09
if you were injured on the street,
260
669114
2199
如果你在街上受伤,
11:11
an ambulance would pick you up,
261
671313
1452
救护车会来接你,
11:12
take you to the hospital, you'd go in, say, with a broken leg,
262
672765
2900
带你去医院,你走进去,也许,跛着脚,
11:15
and you'd come out with a bullet in your head.
263
675665
2479
你出来时可能就是脑袋中抢。
11:18
So these 20-somethings created
264
678144
2911
因此,这些年轻人创造了
11:21
an alternative health care system,
265
681055
2294
一种可选的医疗系统,
11:23
where what they did is they used Twitter and basic
266
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2390
他们利用Twitter和基本的
11:25
publicly available tools that when someone's injured,
267
685739
3245
公共工具,当有人受伤时,
11:28
a car would show up, it would pick them up,
268
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2680
一辆车会出现,把他们接走,
11:31
take them to a makeshift medical clinic, where you'd get
269
691664
2559
带他们到一个临时搭建的医疗诊所,在那里
11:34
medical treatment, as opposed to being executed.
270
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3542
能得到正常的医治。
11:37
So this is a time of great change.
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3185
因此,这是一个巨大变革的时代。
11:40
Now, it's not without its problems.
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2634
但也不能说不存在任何问题。
11:43
Up until two years ago,
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2646
直到2年前,
11:46
all revolutions in human history had a leadership,
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3153
人类历史上所有革命都有领袖,
11:49
and when the old regime fell, the leadership
275
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2792
当旧体制消亡,领袖
11:52
and the organization would take power.
276
712175
978
和新的组织就能掌权。
11:53
Well, these wiki revolutions happen so fast
277
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2525
这些维基革命发生的如此之快
11:55
they create a vacuum, and
278
715678
1498
他们创建了一个真空环境
11:57
politics abhors a vacuum,
279
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1735
然而政治痛恨真空,
11:58
and unsavory forces can fill that,
280
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2072
令人厌恶的力量能够填补之,
12:00
typically the old regime,
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3126
典型的旧体制,
12:04
or extremists, or fundamentalist forces.
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2346
或极端主义者,或原教旨主义势力。
12:06
You can see this playing out today in Egypt.
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2735
你们能看到今天的埃及就是这出戏码。
12:09
But that doesn't matter,
284
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1663
但这无关紧要,
12:10
because this is moving forward.
285
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2137
因为它正在前进。
12:12
The train has left the station. The cat is out of the bag.
286
732990
2976
火车离开了车站。猫蹦出了袋子。
12:15
The horse is out of the barn. Help me out here, okay?
287
735966
3378
马跑出了马厩。帮帮我,好吗?
12:19
(Laughter) The toothpaste is out of the tube.
288
739344
2142
(笑声)牙膏被挤出来了。
12:21
I mean, we're not putting this one back.
289
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2223
我的意思是,我们不是在倒退。
12:23
The open world is bringing empowerment and freedom.
290
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3733
开放的世界将带来权力与自由。
12:27
I think, at the end of these four days,
291
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2784
我认为,在4天之后
12:30
that you'll come to conclude that the arc of history
292
750226
2766
你们就能得出结论历史之方向
12:32
is a positive one, and it's towards openness.
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3496
是积极的,是朝着开放发展的。
12:36
If you go back a few hundred years,
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2481
如果你们回顾几百年前,
12:38
all around the world it was a very closed society.
295
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2384
全世界曾是一个十分封闭的社会。
12:41
It was agrarian, and the means of production
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1569
那时处于土地改革,生产资料
12:42
and political system was called feudalism, and knowledge
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2715
和政治体制被称为封建主义,知识
12:45
was concentrated in the church and the nobility.
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3938
集中在教会和贵族手中。
12:49
People didn't know about things.
299
769575
1607
人们很无知。
12:51
There was no concept of progress.
300
771182
2475
没有进步的概念。
12:53
You were born, you lived your life and you died.
301
773657
1903
你出生,生活然后死去。
12:55
But then Johannes Gutenberg came along with his great invention,
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4596
然后Johannes Gutenberg 带着他的伟大发明到来,
13:00
and, over time, the society opened up.
303
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3552
渐渐地,社会变得开放起来。
13:03
People started to learn about things, and when they did,
304
783708
2041
人们开始学习。当他们学习时,
13:05
the institutions of feudal society appeared
305
785749
1385
封建社会体制趋向
13:07
to be stalled, or frozen, or failing.
306
787134
3703
停滞,冻结或消亡。
13:10
It didn't make sense for the church to be responsible
307
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2776
对于交谈来说掌握医药已没有任何意义
13:13
for medicine when people had knowledge.
308
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2282
当人们拥有知识了之后。
13:15
So we saw the Protestant Reformation.
309
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1947
因此我们看到了新教改革。
13:17
Martin Luther called the printing press
310
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1870
Martin Luther称之为”印刷机“
13:19
"God's highest act of grace."
311
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2397
”上帝最大的恩赐。“
13:22
The creation of a corporation, science, the university,
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3511
公司,科学,大学的创立
13:25
eventually the Industrial Revolution,
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1687
最终迎来了工业革命,
13:27
and it was all good.
314
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2174
所有这些都是正面的。
13:29
But it came with a cost.
315
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2147
但都需要付出一定的代价。
13:31
And now, once again, the technology genie
316
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2712
现在,再一次的,科技天才
13:34
is out of the bottle, but this time it's different.
317
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3320
正在踊跃而出,但这次不太一样。
13:37
The printing press gave us access to the written word.
318
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2865
”印刷机“给了我们接触书面文字的机会。
13:40
The Internet enables each of us to be a producer.
319
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3459
英特网让我们每个人都能成为生产商。
13:43
The printing press gave us access to recorded knowledge.
320
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2814
”印刷机“使我们能够接触记录的知识。
13:46
The Internet gives us access,
321
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1910
英特网使我们接触的,
13:48
not just to information and knowledge, but
322
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1649
不仅仅是信息和知识,还有
13:50
to the intelligence contained in the crania of other people
323
830357
3376
人们脑中包含的智慧
13:53
on a global basis.
324
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1537
在全球范围内。
13:55
To me, this is not an information age,
325
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3239
对我来说,这不是一个信息时代,
13:58
it's an age of networked intelligence.
326
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2874
这是一个网络智能时代。
14:01
It's an age of vast promise,
327
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3872
这是一个广阔诺言的时代,
14:05
an age of collaboration,
328
845255
3128
一个合作的时代,
14:08
where the boundaries of our organizations are changing,
329
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4179
我们的组织边界在变化,
14:12
of transparency, where sunlight
330
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2715
一个透明化的时代,阳光
14:15
is disinfecting civilization,
331
855277
3223
涤荡着人类文明,
14:18
an age of sharing and understanding
332
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3556
这是一个分享和理解
14:22
the new power of the commons,
333
862056
1706
共同的新权力的时代,
14:23
and it's an age of empowerment
334
863762
2643
一个权力和
14:26
and of freedom.
335
866405
2891
自由的时代。
14:29
Now, what I'd like to do is,
336
869296
3536
现在,我想做的是,
14:32
to close, to share with you
337
872832
2648
总结,与你们分享
14:35
some research that I've been doing.
338
875480
2609
某个我做过的研究。
14:38
I've tried to study all kinds of organizations
339
878089
2511
我研究过各种组织
14:40
to understand what the future might look like,
340
880600
3137
为了了解未来会是怎么样,
14:43
but I've been studying nature recently.
341
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3025
但最近我开始研究自然。
14:46
You know, bees come in swarms
342
886762
3630
你们知道的,蜜蜂和
14:50
and fish come in schools.
343
890392
2711
鱼儿都喜成群结队。
14:53
Starlings, in the area around Edinburgh,
344
893103
2813
椋鸟,在爱丁堡周围的地区,
14:55
in the moors of England,
345
895916
1483
在英格兰的旷野上,
14:57
come in something called a murmuration,
346
897399
2094
传来某种淙淙的声音,
14:59
and the murmuration refers to the murmuring of the wings
347
899493
2772
是翅膀扇动的淙淙声
15:02
of the birds, and throughout the day the starlings
348
902265
1913
一整天过去,椋鸟
15:04
are out over a 20-mile radius
349
904178
1865
飞过了20英里半径
15:06
sort of doing their starling thing.
350
906043
2041
自得其乐。
15:08
And at night they come together
351
908084
1764
到了晚上,它们聚在一起
15:09
and they create one of the most spectacular things
352
909848
2122
创造出最壮观的一幕
15:11
in all of nature,
353
911970
1595
在大自然中,
15:13
and it's called a murmuration.
354
913565
2054
就被称为淙淙声。
15:15
And scientists that have studied this have said
355
915619
2917
对此作过研究的科学家曾说过
15:18
they've never seen an accident.
356
918536
1746
他们从未见过有意外发生。
15:20
Now, this thing has a function.
357
920282
1950
现在,这件事有了一种功能性。
15:22
It protects the birds.
358
922232
1862
它能保护鸟儿。
15:24
You can see on the right here,
359
924094
1600
你们能看到就在这里,
15:25
there's a predator being chased away by the collective power
360
925694
4505
有一个猎手被鸟群的力量驱赶,
15:30
of the birds, and apparently this is a frightening thing
361
930199
2990
很显然,这是一件可怕的事情
15:33
if you're a predator of starlings.
362
933189
3464
如果你是一个猎鸟者的话。
15:36
And there's leadership,
363
936653
2448
这其中也存在领袖,
15:39
but there's no one leader.
364
939101
2138
但不仅仅是一个领导者。
15:41
Now, is this some kind of fanciful analogy,
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那么,这是不是某种奇特的比喻呢?
15:43
or could we actually learn something from this?
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或者,我们是否能从中学到什么?
15:45
Well, the murmuration functions to record
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这种淙淙声记述了
15:48
a number of principles,
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一系列的原则,
15:50
and they're basically the principles that
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基本上就是
15:51
I have described to you today.
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我今天阐述的原则。
15:53
This is a huge collaboration.
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这是一种广博的协作。
15:56
It's an openness, it's a sharing
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是开放,是分享
15:58
of all kinds of information, not just about location
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各种信息,而不仅仅是地点
16:00
and trajectory and danger and so on, but about food sources.
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路线和危险等,而是食物的来源。
16:05
And there's a real sense of interdependence,
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这里就存在一种真正的相互依存感,
16:09
that the individual birds somehow understand
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鸟群个体不知为何就能够理解
16:13
that their interests are in the interest of the collective.
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它们个体的利益是依托于群体利益的。
16:16
Perhaps like we should understand
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也许就像我们理解的那样
16:18
that business can't succeed
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商业是无法成功的
16:22
in a world that's failing.
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如果整个市场濒临崩溃的话。
16:25
Well, I look at this thing,
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我看了这个之后
16:26
and I get a lot of hope.
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忽然感觉充满了希望。
16:29
Think about the kids today in the Arab Spring, and
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想象一下今天“阿拉伯之春”的孩子们,
16:34
you see something like this that's underway.
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你就会看到类似的事情即将来到。
16:37
And imagine, just consider this idea, if you would:
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想象一下,如果你可以的话:
16:41
What if we could connect ourselves in this world
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如果在这个世界上,我们能够连接我们自己
16:45
through a vast network of air and glass?
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借助一个巨大的空气和玻璃网络,那会是如何呢?
16:49
Could we go beyond just sharing information and knowledge?
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我们能否超越仅仅分享信息和知识这个层面呢?
16:52
Could we start to share our intelligence?
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我们能否开始分享我们的智慧呢?
16:54
Could we create some kind of
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我们能否创造某种
16:56
collective intelligence
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集体智慧
16:58
that goes beyond an individual or a group or a team
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超越个体,群体或团队
17:02
to create, perhaps, some kind of consciousness
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创造,也许是某种意识
17:06
on a global basis?
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在全球范围内?
17:07
Well, if we could do this, we could attack some big problems in the world.
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如果我们真的能做到,我们就可以解决世界上一些重大问题。
17:11
And I look at this thing,
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我反观这一点,
17:13
and, I don't know, I get a lot of hope that maybe this
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我也不知道,但我忽然就充满了希望, 也许这个
17:16
smaller, networked, open world
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更小的,联网的,开放的世界
17:20
that our kids inherit might be a better one, and that
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我们的孩子们继承的世界,也许会更好,
17:23
this new age of networked intelligence could be
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3313
这个网络智慧的新时代可能是
17:26
an age of promise fulfilled
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2624
一个兑现承诺的
17:29
and of peril unrequited.
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和危机重重的时代。
17:32
Let's do this. Thank you.
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让我们行动起来。谢谢!
17:35
(Applause)
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(掌声)
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