请双击下面的英文字幕来播放视频。
翻译人员: Xiaogeng Zhao
校对人员: Chaoran Yu
00:12
Well, this is 2009.
0
12160
5000
今年是2009年
00:17
And it's the Bicentenary of Charles Darwin.
1
17160
5000
是达尔文诞辰二百周年
00:22
And all over the world, eminent evolutionists
2
22160
3000
全世界杰出的进化论学者
00:25
are anxious to celebrate this.
3
25160
2000
都在期盼该周年庆祝
00:27
And what they're planning to do is to enlighten us
4
27160
4000
他们将会启发,教导我们
00:31
on almost every aspect
5
31160
2000
达尔文和他的一生
00:33
of Darwin and his life,
6
33160
2000
是如何改变我们的思维方式
00:35
and how he changed our thinking.
7
35160
2000
这几乎会涵盖到各个方面
00:37
I say almost every aspect,
8
37160
3000
我说是“几乎”各个方面
00:40
because there is one aspect of this story
9
40160
3000
这是因为,还有一个方面
00:43
which they have thrown no light on.
10
43160
3000
他们根本就没有提及到
00:46
And they seem anxious to skirt around it and step over it
11
46160
3000
而且他们迫不及待地想要把这个“特例”遮住并“踩扁”
00:49
and to talk about something else.
12
49160
2000
去说他们另外想说的事
00:51
So I'm going to talk about it.
13
51160
2000
那么,现在我就要开始我对这个“特例”的陈述了。
00:53
It's the question of, why are we so different from the chimpanzees?
14
53160
6000
这个“特例”指的是:“我们为什么会和黑猩猩如此的不同”?
00:59
We get the geneticists keeping on telling us
15
59160
2000
基因学家在不停的告诉我们
01:01
how extremely closely we are related -- hardly any genes of difference,
16
61160
4000
人类和黑猩猩是多么的接近,在基因上几乎没有什么不同。
01:05
very, very closely related.
17
65160
3000
真的是联系十分紧密
01:08
And yet, when you look at the phenotypes,
18
68160
3000
但是,当你看外形时
01:11
there's a chimp, there's a man;
19
71160
2000
猩猩是猩猩,人是人
01:13
they're astoundingly different,
20
73160
2000
两者的不同是那么的使人震惊
01:15
no resemblance at all.
21
75160
2000
完全没有相似之处
01:17
I'm not talking about airy-fairy stuff
22
77160
2000
我并不是在说那些比较空洞的不切实际的东西
01:19
about culture or psychology, or behavior.
23
79160
4000
比如文化啦,心理学或行为学
01:23
I'm talking about ground-base, nitty-gritty,
24
83160
3000
我是在说基础的,本质上的
01:26
measurable physical differences.
25
86160
2000
可以测量的实质上的区别
01:28
They, that one,
26
88160
2000
他们,那个家伙
01:30
is hairy and walking on four legs.
27
90160
2000
浑身是毛,用四条腿走路
01:32
That one is a naked biped. Why?
28
92160
4000
这个家伙却是光溜溜的,用两条腿来走路,这是为什么呢?
01:36
I mean --
29
96160
2000
你们明白吧
01:38
(Laughter)
30
98160
1000
(笑声)
01:39
if I'm a good Darwinist, I've got to believe
31
99160
2000
如果我是一个好的达尔文论者,我必须要相信
01:41
there's a reason for that.
32
101160
2000
这是有原因的。
01:43
If we changed so much, something must have happened.
33
103160
3000
如果我们变化这么大,一定是受到某种因素的影响
01:46
What happened?
34
106160
2000
到底发生了什么呢?
01:48
Now 50 years ago, that was a laughably simple question.
35
108160
3000
在50年前,有一个“可笑”的简单问题。
01:51
Everybody knew the answer.
36
111160
2000
所有的人都知道答案
01:53
They knew what happened.
37
113160
2000
他们都知道发生了什么
01:55
The ancestor of the apes stayed in the trees;
38
115160
2000
猿类的始祖留在了树上
01:57
our ancestors went out onto the plain.
39
117160
3000
而我们的祖先却走向了平原
02:00
That explained everything.
40
120160
3000
这解释了一切
02:03
We had to get up on our legs to peer over the tall grass,
41
123160
3000
我们必须直立站着,才能看到高草之外
02:06
or to chase after animals,
42
126160
2000
才能追捕动物
02:08
or to free our hands for weapons.
43
128160
2000
或是解放了我们的双手,使我们能够使用武器
02:10
And we got so overheated in the chase
44
130160
4000
我们在追捕中身体过热
02:14
that we had to take off that fur coat and throw it away.
45
134160
4000
所以我们必须“扔掉”全身的“毛皮大衣”
02:18
Everybody knew that, for generations.
46
138160
3000
一代一代,大家都知道这个故事
02:21
But then, in the '90s, something began to unravel.
47
141160
4000
但是,在90年代,有些事开始被揭开
02:25
The paleontologists themselves looked a bit more closely
48
145160
4000
考古学家们更加仔细地观察了
02:29
at the accompanying microfauna
49
149160
4000
伴生的微型生物群
02:33
that lived in the same time and place as the hominids.
50
153160
4000
和原始人处在同时期同地域的微型生物群
02:37
And they weren't savanna species.
51
157160
3000
结果发现它们不是草原物种
02:40
And they looked at the herbivores. And they weren't savanna herbivores.
52
160160
4000
考古学家们又观察了食草动物,结果它们也不是草原的食草动物
02:44
And then they were so clever, they found a way to analyze
53
164160
3000
然后他们发现了一个聪明的办法来分析
02:47
fossilized pollen.
54
167160
2000
变为化石的花粉
02:49
Shock, horror.
55
169160
2000
惊吓,恐惧
02:51
The fossilized pollen was not of savanna vegetation.
56
171160
5000
这些石化了的花粉根本不属于草原植物
02:56
Some of it even came from lianas,
57
176160
2000
有些竟然来自藤本植物
02:58
those things that dangle in the middle of the jungle.
58
178160
3000
这些藤本植物是悬挂在热带雨林之中的啊
03:01
So we're left with a situation where
59
181160
2000
这留给我们我们如此一个局面
03:03
we know that our earliest ancestors
60
183160
4000
我们知道,我们最早的祖先
03:07
were moving around on four legs in the trees,
61
187160
4000
在树上生活时已经开始用两条腿开始到处活动了
03:11
before the savanna ecosystem even came into existence.
62
191160
5000
那时草原生态系统还没有形成呢
03:16
This is not something I've made up.
63
196160
3000
这不是我编出来的故事
03:19
It's not a minority theory.
64
199160
2000
也不是少数派学说
03:21
Everybody agrees with it.
65
201160
2000
所有人都一致同意该理论
03:23
Professor Tobias came over from South Africa
66
203160
4000
来自南非的Tobias教授
03:27
and spoke to University College London.
67
207160
3000
在伦敦大学学院讲演
03:30
He said, "Everything I've been telling you for the last 20 years,
68
210160
3000
他说:“过去20年里,我对你们所说的一切”
03:33
forget about it. It was wrong.
69
213160
3000
把它都忘掉吧,以为它是错误的
03:36
We've got to go back to square one and start again."
70
216160
4000
我们必须返回最初,一切从头开始
03:40
It made him very unpopular. They didn't want to go back to square one.
71
220160
6000
这言论使他变得非常不受欢迎。他们不想返回最初的起点
03:46
I mean, it's a terrible thing to happen.
72
226160
2000
我是说,那将会是一件多么可怕的事啊。
03:48
You've got this beautiful paradigm.
73
228160
3000
你们已经有了美丽而巧妙的范式系统
03:51
You've believed it through generations.
74
231160
2000
一代一代我们对此深信不疑
03:53
Nobody has questioned it.
75
233160
2000
从没有人质疑该理论
03:55
You've been constructing fanciful things on top of it,
76
235160
4000
你们在此基础上建立了富于想象的事物
03:59
relying on it to be as solid as a rock.
77
239160
2000
对此的信赖坚如磐石。
04:01
And now it's whipped away from under you.
78
241160
3000
而如今突然被釜底抽薪
04:04
What do you do? What does a scientist do in that case?
79
244160
3000
你该怎么办?遇到这样的问题科学家是怎么处理的呢?
04:07
Well, we know the answer because
80
247160
2000
我们知道这个问题的答案是通过了
04:09
Thomas S. Kuhn
81
249160
3000
Thomas S. Kuhn
04:12
wrote a seminal treatise
82
252160
4000
写的关于这件事一篇专题论文
04:16
about this back in 1962.
83
256160
2000
是他在1962年写的
04:18
He said what scientists do
84
258160
2000
他说:作为科学家
04:20
when a paradigm fails
85
260160
4000
当范例不再成立或失效时应当怎么办
04:24
is, guess what -- they carry on as if nothing had happened.
86
264160
3000
你猜他怎么说的?“他们继续下去就当什么也没有发生过”
04:27
(Laughter)
87
267160
3000
(笑声)
04:30
If they haven't got a paradigm they can't ask the question.
88
270160
3000
如果他们连范例都没有,他们将不能问问题
04:33
So they say, "Yes it's wrong,
89
273160
2000
所以他们会说,“是的,范例是错误的
04:35
but supposing it was right ..."
90
275160
2000
但如果你想,假设它是对的话那么......”
04:37
(Laughter)
91
277160
2000
(笑声)
04:39
And the only other option open to them
92
279160
4000
他们剩下唯一的选择
04:43
is to stop asking the questions.
93
283160
2000
就是停止问问题
04:45
So that is what they have done now.
94
285160
4000
所以他们现在就是这么做的
04:49
That's why you don't hear them talking about it. It's yesterday's question.
95
289160
3000
这就是为什么你们听不到他们的讨论。这个问题变成了过时
04:52
Some of them have even elevated it into a principle.
96
292160
3000
他们其中的有些人将这提升到了原则的高度
04:55
It's what we ought to be doing.
97
295160
2000
我们就该这么照着做
04:57
Aaron Filler from Harvard said,
98
297160
3000
哈佛大学的Aaron Filler说
05:00
"Isn't it time we stopped talking about selective pressures?
99
300160
4000
“该是时候停止有选择性的施压了吧?
05:04
I mean, why don't we talk about, well, there's chromosomes, and there's genes.
100
304160
3000
我是说,我们为什么不来讨论染色体啊,基因啊
05:07
And we just record what we see."
101
307160
3000
然后记录下我们所观察到的
05:10
Charles Darwin must be spinning in his grave!
102
310160
3000
达尔文一定会在九泉之下气得团团转
05:13
He knew all about that kind of science.
103
313160
3000
如果他得知这种“科学”态度
05:16
And he called it hypothesis-free science.
104
316160
3000
和他所称的“无假设”科学
05:19
And he despised it from the bottom of his heart.
105
319160
3000
他从心底里看不起这种事
05:22
And if you're going to say,
106
322160
3000
如果你要说
05:25
"I'm going to stop talking about selective pressures,"
107
325160
2000
“我们将要停止有选择性的施压了”
05:27
you can take "The Origin of Species" and throw it out of the window,
108
327160
4000
你还不如把“物种起源”直接丢出窗外好了
05:31
for it's about nothing else but selective pressures.
109
331160
2000
因为“物种起源”所讲的就是选择性压力
05:33
And the irony of it is,
110
333160
2000
具有讽刺的是
05:35
that this is one occasion of a paradigm collapse
111
335160
3000
正是这个颠覆了范式系统
05:38
where we didn't have to wait for a new paradigm to come up.
112
338160
4000
其实我们用不着等待新的范例的出现
05:42
There was one waiting in the wings.
113
342160
2000
现在已经有一个在旁边等着了
05:44
It had been waiting there since 1960
114
344160
2000
它从1960年就开始等在那里了
05:46
when Alister Hardy, a marine biologist,
115
346160
3000
当海洋生物学家Alister Hardy
05:49
said, "I think what happened,
116
349160
2000
说:“我认为
05:51
perhaps our ancestors
117
351160
2000
我们的祖先可能
05:53
had a more aquatic existence
118
353160
2000
在水中栖息
05:55
for some of the time."
119
355160
3000
生活了一段时间”
05:58
He kept it to himself for 30 years.
120
358160
2000
他把这个想法在自己的心理隐藏了30年
06:00
But then the press got hold of it and all hell broke loose.
121
360160
3000
当媒体得知他的理论,反响简直是天崩地裂
06:03
All his colleagues said, "This is outrageous.
122
363160
3000
所有他的同仁都说,这简直是无稽之谈
06:06
You've exposed us to public ridicule!
123
366160
4000
你让我么在大众面前丢人现眼
06:10
You must never do that again."
124
370160
2000
你可再也不能这么做了
06:12
And at that time, it became set in stone:
125
372160
3000
在当时,这是板上钉钉的
06:15
the aquatic theory should be dumped
126
375160
3000
人类水中起源说是一定要被抛弃的
06:18
with the UFOs and the yetis,
127
378160
2000
就像“幽浮”(不明飞行物)和雪人一样
06:20
as part of the lunatic fringe of science.
128
380160
4000
被当成是疯狂的伪科学
06:24
Well I don't think that.
129
384160
2000
不过,我可不这么认为
06:26
I think that Hardy had a lot going for him.
130
386160
2000
我认为Hardy是有他的充分的理由的
06:28
I'd like to talk about just a handful
131
388160
3000
我只想说其中几个
06:31
of what have been called the
132
391160
2000
那些被称为
06:33
hallmarks of mankind,
133
393160
2000
人类的标志性特质
06:35
the things that made us different from everybody else,
134
395160
2000
那些然我们人类与其他物种不同的
06:37
and all our relatives.
135
397160
2000
也和我们“远亲”不同的特质
06:39
Let's look at our naked skin.
136
399160
4000
让我们来看看我们裸露的的皮肤吧
06:43
It's obvious that most of the things we think about
137
403160
4000
很显然,每当我们想起
06:47
that have lost their body hair, mammals without body hair,
138
407160
3000
失去身体毛发的哺乳动物时
06:50
are aquatic ones, like the dugong, the walrus,
139
410160
3000
我们就会想起水生动物,比如懦艮,海象
06:53
the dolphin, the hippopotamus, the manatee.
140
413160
4000
海豚,河马,海牛
06:57
And a couple of wallowers-in-mud like the babirusa.
141
417160
6000
和一些在泥里打滚的疣猪
07:03
And you're tempted to think, well perhaps,
142
423160
2000
你也许忍不住会想,可能
07:05
could that be why we are naked?
143
425160
3000
这就是我们人类皮肤裸露的原因?
07:08
I suggested it and people said, "No no no.
144
428160
2000
我提及了一下,人们纷纷说:“不不不,不可能”
07:10
I mean, look at the elephant.
145
430160
2000
我说,来看看大象吧
07:12
You've forgotten all about the elephant haven't you?"
146
432160
2000
你们都忘记了大象了吧?
07:14
So back in 1982 I said,
147
434160
3000
1982年我说过
07:17
"Well perhaps the elephant had an aquatic ancestor."
148
437160
3000
大象可能有水生始祖
07:20
Peals of merry laughter!
149
440160
3000
一阵开心的笑声!
07:23
"That crazy woman. She's off again. She'll say anything won't she?"
150
443160
3000
那个疯女人,她又开腔了,她是什么都敢说啊她?
07:26
But by now, everybody agrees that the elephant had an aquatic ancestor.
151
446160
6000
但是现如今,人人都同意大象是有水生始祖的
07:32
This has come 'round to be that all those naked pachyderms
152
452160
3000
这已成为共识,所有具有裸露厚皮的动物
07:35
have aquatic ancestors.
153
455160
2000
都具有水生祖先
07:37
The last exception was supposed to be the rhinoceros.
154
457160
2000
曾几何时,犀牛被认为是最后的一个特例
07:39
Last year in Florida they found extinct ancestor of a rhinoceros
155
459160
4000
结果,去年,在佛罗里达发现了犀牛绝迹的始祖
07:43
and said, "Seems to have spent most of its time in the water."
156
463160
4000
据说“大部分时间是在水中生活的”
07:47
So this is a close connection between nakedness and water.
157
467160
5000
所以说,裸露的皮肤和水是有着紧密联系的
07:52
As an absolute connection, it only works one way.
158
472160
3000
作为一个充分条件,这只是单向有效的
07:55
You can't say all aquatic animals are naked,
159
475160
4000
你可不能说所有的水生动物都是皮肤裸露的
07:59
because look at the sea otter.
160
479160
2000
因为,看看海獭。
08:01
But you can say
161
481160
2000
但是,你可以说
08:03
that every animal that has become naked
162
483160
4000
所有皮肤变为裸露的动物
08:07
has been conditioned by water, in its own lifetime,
163
487160
3000
都在其有生之年经过“水的考验”
08:10
or the lifetime of its ancestors. I think this is significant.
164
490160
4000
或是其祖先经过“水的洗礼”。我认为这是有重大意义的
08:14
The only exception is the naked Somalian mole-rat,
165
494160
4000
唯一的特例就是索马里鼹鼠
08:18
which never puts its nose above the surface of the ground.
166
498160
4000
它从没有接触过地表
08:22
And take bipedality.
167
502160
2000
却依靠两肢行走
08:24
Here you can't find anybody to compare it with,
168
504160
3000
这是独一无二的
08:27
because we're the only animal that walks upright on two legs.
169
507160
5000
因为我们人类是唯一依靠双腿直立行走的
08:32
But you can say this: all the apes and all the monkeys
170
512160
3000
但是我们可以说,所有的猿类以及猴类
08:35
are capable of walking on two legs,
171
515160
2000
如果他们愿意,在短时间里
08:37
if they want to, for a short time.
172
517160
2000
都有依靠双腿行走的能力
08:39
There is only one circumstance in which they
173
519160
3000
而只有一种情况下
08:42
always, all of them, walk on two legs,
174
522160
3000
他们总是依靠双腿行走的
08:45
and that is when they are wading through water.
175
525160
3000
那就是当他们淌水经过的时候
08:48
Do you think that's significant?
176
528160
2000
你认为这个意味深长么?
08:50
David Attenborough thinks it's significant,
177
530160
2000
David Attenboroug(BBC著名自然节目主持人)认为这意义重大
08:52
as the possible beginning of our bipedalism.
178
532160
4000
因为这可能是我们开始两肢行走的原因
08:56
Look at the fat layer.
179
536160
2000
再来看看脂肪层
08:58
We have got, under our skin, a layer of fat, all over:
180
538160
4000
在我们皮下分布着一层脂肪
09:02
nothing in the least like that in any other primate.
181
542160
4000
根本不像其他的灵长类动物
09:06
Why should it be there?
182
546160
2000
脂肪为什么在那里呢?
09:08
Well they do know, that if you look at other aquatic mammals,
183
548160
3000
如果你看看水生动物,你就会知道
09:11
the fat that in most land mammals
184
551160
2000
大部分陆栖哺乳动物的脂肪
09:13
is deposited inside the body wall,
185
553160
3000
贮存在体腔以内
09:16
around the kidneys and the intestines and so on,
186
556160
4000
包裹在在肾脏,肠子等内脏之外
09:20
has started to migrate to the outside,
187
560160
2000
这些脂肪满满的向外部移动
09:22
and spread out in a layer inside the skin.
188
562160
4000
均匀分布在表皮之下
09:26
In the whale it's complete:
189
566160
2000
对于鲸鱼来说,这样的移动是完全的
09:28
no fat inside at all, all in blubber outside.
190
568160
3000
体腔内部完全没有脂肪,全部在体腔外部
09:31
We cannot avoid the suspicion
191
571160
3000
我们不能回避这个疑问
09:34
that in our case it's started to happen.
192
574160
3000
对于我们人类来说,这种脂肪转移已经开始了
09:37
We have got skin lined with this layer.
193
577160
4000
我们的皮下已经具有这样的脂肪层了
09:41
It's the only possible explanation of why humans,
194
581160
3000
这唯一能够解释为什么人类
09:44
if they're very unlucky,
195
584160
3000
如果很不幸的话
09:47
can become grossly obese,
196
587160
3000
会变得非常肥胖
09:50
in a way that would be totally impossible for any other primate, physically impossible.
197
590160
4000
可以说对于其他灵长类动物来讲,变得如此肥胖是生理上绝对不可能的
09:54
Something very odd, matter-of-factly, never explained.
198
594160
4000
有一个很奇怪的现象,从来没有解释
09:58
The question of why we can speak.
199
598160
2000
就是关于为什么我们能说话的问题
10:00
We can speak.
200
600160
2000
我们能说话
10:02
And the gorilla can't speak. Why?
201
602160
3000
大猩猩却不能,为什么呢?
10:05
Nothing to do with his teeth or his tongue or his lungs or anything like that --
202
605160
4000
这和牙齿,舌头,肺都没有关系
10:09
purely has to do with its conscious control of its breath.
203
609160
5000
这只和有意识的呼吸控制有关
10:14
You can't even train a gorilla to say "Ah" on request.
204
614160
5000
你是连训练大猩猩有意识的说“啊”都不可能的
10:19
The only creatures that have got conscious control of their breath
205
619160
5000
唯一一类动物具有有意识呼吸控制的
10:24
are the diving animals and the diving birds.
206
624160
3000
是潜水动物,和潜水鸟类
10:27
It was an absolute precondition for our being able to speak.
207
627160
5000
这是能够说话的先决必要条件
10:32
And then again, there is the fact that we are streamlined.
208
632160
4000
还有,我们身体的流线型形态
10:36
Trying to imagine a diver
209
636160
2000
想像一下人类跳水
10:38
diving into water -- hardly makes a splash.
210
638160
2000
跳入水中,波澜不惊
10:40
Try to imagine a gorilla
211
640160
3000
再想像一下大猩猩
10:43
performing the same maneuver,
212
643160
3000
做同样的动作
10:46
and you can see that, compared with gorilla,
213
646160
2000
你可以看得出,和大猩猩相比
10:48
we are halfway to being shaped like a fish.
214
648160
3000
我么的体型相当接近鱼类
10:51
I am trying to suggest that, for 40-odd years,
215
651160
3000
四十多年来,我一直在努力的提议这个想法
10:54
this aquatic idea has been miscategorized as lunatic fringe,
216
654160
5000
水生说被错误的的归类为歪门邪道
10:59
and it is not lunatic fringe.
217
659160
3000
它可不是旁门左道
11:02
And the ironic thing about it is that
218
662160
3000
具有讽刺意味的是
11:05
they are not staving off the aquatic theory
219
665160
3000
他们扼杀水生说
11:08
to protect a theory of their own,
220
668160
2000
并不是要保护他们自己的学说
11:10
which they've all agreed on, and they love.
221
670160
2000
那个他们都赞同,热爱的理论
11:12
There is nothing there.
222
672160
2000
这样的理论根本就不存在
11:14
They are staving off the aquatic theory
223
674160
2000
他们扼杀水生说
11:16
to protect a vacuum.
224
676160
2000
却是在保护一种“真空状态”
11:18
(Laughter)
225
678160
3000
(笑声)
11:21
(Applause)
226
681160
5000
(掌声)
11:26
How do they react when I say these things?
227
686160
3000
每当我这么说的时候,他们是如何反应的呢?
11:29
One very common reaction I've heard about 20 times
228
689160
4000
一个我听了有不下二十次的通常反应是
11:33
is, "But it was investigated.
229
693160
2000
“这已经被研究调查过了
11:35
They conducted a serious investigation of this at the beginning,
230
695160
4000
在最初他们就进行了严肃的考察
11:39
when Hardy put forward his article."
231
699160
4000
当Hardy发表了他的论文时
11:43
I don't believe it.
232
703160
3000
我根本就不相信
11:46
For 35 years I've been looking for any evidence
233
706160
3000
三十五年来,我一直在寻找证据
11:49
of any incident of that kind,
234
709160
2000
哪怕任何偶然巧合
11:51
and I've concluded that that's one of the urban myths.
235
711160
3000
现在我总结,这根本就是个谣传
11:54
It's never been done.
236
714160
3000
根本从来就没有所谓的研究调查
11:57
I ask people sometimes, and they say,
237
717160
2000
有时我会问有些人,他们会说
11:59
"I like the aquatic theory!
238
719160
2000
我喜欢水生说
12:01
Everybody likes the aquatic theory.
239
721160
2000
所有人都喜欢水生说
12:03
Of course they don't believe it, but they like it."
240
723160
2000
当然他们都不相信它,但喜欢它
12:05
Well I say, "Why do you think it's rubbish?"
241
725160
4000
然后我会问:“你为什么认为这是胡扯呢”
12:09
They say "Well ...
242
729160
2000
他们会说“恩......
12:11
everybody I talk to says it's rubbish.
243
731160
3000
所有人都认为这是胡扯
12:14
And they can't all be wrong, can they?"
244
734160
2000
他们不会都错吧?会么?
12:16
The answer to that, loud and clear, is, "Yes! They can all be wrong."
245
736160
4000
答案是,响亮而清楚的,“是的,他们可以全部错了!”
12:20
History is strewn with the cases when they've all got it wrong.
246
740160
4000
历史上有很多例子是大多数人都错了
12:24
(Applause)
247
744160
8000
(掌声)
12:32
And if you've got a scientific problem like that,
248
752160
2000
如果你有一个像这样的科学问题
12:34
you can't solve it by holding a head count,
249
754160
3000
是解决问题不是靠着数人头投票表决
12:37
and saying, "More of us say yes than say no."
250
757160
3000
并且说:“说对的人比说不对的人多”的
12:40
(Laughter)
251
760160
1000
(笑声)
12:41
Apart from that, some of the heads count more than others.
252
761160
4000
除此之外,有些“头”比其他的“头”代表票数要多
12:45
Some of them have come over.
253
765160
3000
他们中间有些人改变了观点
12:48
There was Professor Tobias. He's come over.
254
768160
3000
Tobias教授,他就改变了观点
12:51
Daniel Dennett, he's come over.
255
771160
2000
Daniel Dennett, 他也改变了阵线
12:53
Sir David Attenborough, he's come over.
256
773160
4000
David Attenborough爵士,他也加入了进来
12:57
Anybody else out there? Come on in.
257
777160
2000
其他人呢?都来吧
12:59
The water is lovely.
258
779160
2000
水是多么的好啊
13:01
(Applause)
259
781160
3000
(掌声)
13:04
And now we've got to look to the future.
260
784160
5000
现在我们来展望未来
13:09
Ultimately one of three things is going to happen.
261
789160
4000
最终,至少以下三样事之一将会发生
13:13
Either they will go on for the next 40 years, 50 years, 60 years.
262
793160
5000
在今后的四十年,五十年,乃至六十年,他们或许会说
13:18
"Yeah well we don't talk about that. Let's talk about something interesting."
263
798160
4000
我们不想去说它,我们来说其他有趣的事吧
13:22
That would be very sad.
264
802160
2000
这会是一个令人伤心的结果
13:24
The second thing that could happen
265
804160
2000
第二种可能发生的是
13:26
is that some young genius will arrive,
266
806160
2000
一些年轻的天才降临了
13:28
and say, "I've found it.
267
808160
2000
并且说:“我找到了”
13:30
It was not the savanna, it was not the water, it was this!"
268
810160
4000
不是草原,不是水中,是这个!
13:34
No sign of that happening either.
269
814160
3000
目前来看,这种可能性还没有发生的迹象
13:37
I don't think there is a third option.
270
817160
2000
我不认为有第三种可能性
13:39
So the third thing that might happen is
271
819160
3000
所以第三种可能发生的事是
13:42
a very beautiful thing.
272
822160
3000
一个非常美丽的事
13:45
If you look back at the early years of the last century,
273
825160
3000
如果你回首看看上个世纪初叶
13:48
there was a stand-off, a lot of bickering and bad feeling
274
828160
4000
当时有很多分歧,争论,和怨气
13:52
between the believers in Mendel,
275
832160
2000
在孟德尔的支持者
13:54
and the believers in Darwin.
276
834160
3000
和达尔文的信徒之间
13:57
It ended with a new synthesis:
277
837160
3000
这样的争论在新的综合概念下终止了
14:00
Darwin's ideas and Mendel's ideas
278
840160
3000
达尔文的理论和孟德尔的设想
14:03
blending together.
279
843160
2000
融合在一起
14:05
And I think the same thing will happen here.
280
845160
3000
我想,相同点事情将会发生
14:08
You'll get a new synthesis.
281
848160
3000
你们将会得到一个全新的综合概念
14:11
Hardy's ideas and Darwin's ideas
282
851160
2000
Hardy的设想和达尔文的理论
14:13
will be blended together.
283
853160
2000
将会融汇在一起
14:15
And we can move forward from there,
284
855160
2000
之后我们以此为契机
14:17
and really get somewhere.
285
857160
2000
最终到达一个
14:19
That would be a beautiful thing.
286
859160
3000
充满了美丽事物的地方
14:22
It would be very nice for me if it happened soon.
287
862160
3000
对我来说,越快越好
14:25
(Laughter)
288
865160
11000
(笑声)
14:36
Because I'm older now than George Burns was when he said,
289
876160
5000
因为我比George Burns当时说
14:41
"At my age, I don't even buy green bananas."
290
881160
4000
“在我现在的年纪,我已经不买青香蕉了”的时候年纪还要大
14:45
(Laughter)
291
885160
6000
(笑声)
14:51
So if it's going to come and it's going to happen,
292
891160
3000
所有这是会发生的
14:54
what's holding it up?
293
894160
2000
有什么阻力呢?
14:56
I can tell you that in three words.
294
896160
3000
我可以用三个词来告诉你
14:59
Academia says no.
295
899160
4000
学术界说不
15:03
They decided in 1960,
296
903160
2000
他们在1960年就决定了
15:05
"That belongs with the UFOs and the yetis."
297
905160
3000
“水生说是和幽浮,雪人一类的”
15:08
And it's not easy to change their minds.
298
908160
4000
想要改变他们的想法是很不容易的
15:12
The professional journals
299
912160
2000
学术期刊
15:14
won't touch it with a barge pole.
300
914160
2000
根本不去触及
15:16
The textbooks don't mention it.
301
916160
3000
课本提都不提
15:19
The syllabus doesn't mention even the fact that we're naked,
302
919160
3000
教学大纲根本就不提我们的裸露皮肤
15:22
let alone look for a reason to it.
303
922160
3000
更不用说究其原委了
15:25
"Horizon," which takes its cue from the academics,
304
925160
3000
Horizon只知道跟随学术界
15:28
won't touch it with a barge pole.
305
928160
2000
根本不去触及
15:30
So we never hear the case put for it,
306
930160
4000
所有我们从来就没有机会接触到(水生说)
15:34
except in jocular references
307
934160
3000
除了用作反面教材的参考资料中
15:37
to people on the lunatic fringe.
308
937160
2000
引用的伪科学
15:39
I don't know quite where this diktat comes from.
309
939160
6000
我不知道如此的勒令是从哪里而来
15:45
Somebody up there
310
945160
2000
从那些高高在上的一群人里
15:47
is issuing the commandment,
311
947160
4000
发布了这个戒律
15:51
"Thou shalt not believe in the aquatic theory.
312
951160
4000
“汝不可信水生说”
15:55
And if you hope to make progress in this profession,
313
955160
3000
如果你想要在该领域有所发展的话
15:58
and you do believe it, you'd better keep it to yourself,
314
958160
4000
如果你相信水生说,你最好守口如瓶
16:02
because it will get in your way."
315
962160
2000
因为这会阻碍你
16:04
So I get the impression that some parts
316
964160
3000
所以我有种感觉
16:07
of the scientific establishment
317
967160
3000
有些科学界机构
16:10
are morphing into a kind of priesthood.
318
970160
4000
演变成了一种祭司制度
16:14
But you know, that makes me feel good,
319
974160
4000
但你要知道,这让我感觉良好
16:18
because Richard Dawkins has told us
320
978160
3000
因为Richard Dawkins告诉过我们
16:21
how to treat a priesthood.
321
981160
2000
应该如何对待祭祀制度
16:23
(Laughter)
322
983160
2000
(笑声)
16:25
He says, "Firstly, you've got to refuse to give it
323
985160
3000
他说:“首先,你要拒绝给他
16:28
all the excessive awe and reverence
324
988160
3000
一切的畏惧与崇敬
16:31
it's been trained to receive."
325
991160
2000
这是他们惯于接受的
16:33
Right. I'll go ahead with that.
326
993160
2000
好,我会这样做的
16:35
And secondly, he says,
327
995160
2000
其次,他说
16:37
"You must never be afraid to rock the boat."
328
997160
3000
“你不要怕去摇晃船只(打破现状,找麻烦)”
16:40
I'll go along with that too.
329
1000160
2000
我也会这样做的
16:42
Thank you very much.
330
1002160
2000
非常感谢
16:44
(Applause)
331
1004160
20000
(掌声)
New videos
关于本网站
这个网站将向你介绍对学习英语有用的YouTube视频。你将看到来自世界各地的一流教师教授的英语课程。双击每个视频页面上显示的英文字幕,即可从那里播放视频。字幕会随着视频的播放而同步滚动。如果你有任何意见或要求,请使用此联系表与我们联系。