Tim Jackson: An economic reality check

翻译人员: Guo Tang 校对人员: L Y

I want to talk to you today about prosperity,

我今天想对你们讲一下繁荣，

about our hopes

关于我们的希望

for a shared and lasting prosperity.

为了共有且永久的繁荣。

And not just us,

不仅仅是我们，

but the two billion people worldwide

而是全世界二十亿

who are still chronically undernourished.

仍然长期地处在饥饿状态的人们。

And hope actually is at the heart of this.

希望其实是这一切的关键。

In fact, the Latin word for hope

事实上，拉丁语的希望

is at the heart of the word prosperity.

位于繁荣这个词的中心。

"Pro-speras," "speras," hope --

“Pro-speras”，“speras”，希望--

in accordance with our hopes and expectations.

与我们的希望和期待一致。

The irony is, though,

讽刺的是，尽管，

that we have cashed-out prosperity

我们有现在的繁荣

almost literally in terms of money and economic growth.

从金钱和经济成长的方面来看的确如此。

And we've grown our economies so much

然而我们的经济增长了如此之多

that we now stand

以至于我们现在

in a real danger

处在一个

of undermining hope --

侵蚀希望的危险处境--

running down resources, cutting down rainforests,

耗尽能源，砍伐森林，

spilling oil into the Gulf of Mexico,

石油泄漏在墨西哥湾，

changing the climate --

改变气候--

and the only thing that has actually

过去的二十到三十年间唯一能够

remotely slowed down the relentless rise

轻微地减缓源源不断的

of carbon emissions over the last two to three decades

碳排放的

is recession.

就是经济萧条。

And recession, of course,

经济不景气，当然，

isn't exactly a recipe for hope either,

也不是对希望的一个精确的处方，

as we're busy finding out.

我们忙忙碌碌地所发掘的。

So we're caught in a kind of trap.

因此我们陷入了一个陷阱。

It's a dilemma, a dilemma of growth.

这是一个困境，一个成长的困境。

We can't live with it; we can't live without it.

我们不能与它共存，没有它我们也不能生存。

Trash the system or crash the planet --

破坏这个系统或是破坏这个星球。

it's a tough choice; it isn't much of a choice.

这是个困难的选择。这算不上是一个选择。

And our best avenue of escape from this actually

我们逃避这些最佳的途径实际上

is a kind of blind faith

是一种

in our own cleverness and technology and efficiency

对我们自己的聪慧，科技和效率

and doing things more efficiently.

以及更高效工作的盲目信任。

Now I haven't got anything against efficiency.

现在我不反对效率。

And I think we are a clever species sometimes.

有些时候我认为我们是聪明的物种。

But I think we should also just check the numbers,

但是我认为我们也应该核对一下那些数字，

take a reality check here.

做一个现实核查。

So I want you to imagine a world,

我希望你想象一个世界，

in 2050, of around nine billion people,

在二零五零年，有九十亿的人，

all aspiring to Western incomes,

都渴求西方的收入水平，

Western lifestyles.

西方的生活方式。

And I want to ask the question --

我想问一个问题--

and we'll give them that two percent hike in income, in salary each year as well,

我们将每年对他们的收入和工资都提高百分之二。

because we believe in growth.

因为我们相信会有（经济）增长。

And I want to ask the question:

我想问这个问题：

how far and how fast would be have to move?

我们需要行进多远多快？

How clever would we have to be?

我们需要有多聪明？

How much technology would we need in this world

在这个世界上我们需要多少科学技术

to deliver our carbon targets?

来实现我们低碳的目标？

And here in my chart --

在我的这个图表中。

on the left-hand side is where we are now.

在左手边的是我们现在所处的状态。

This is the carbon intensity of economic growth

这是经济增长与之相对应的碳强度

in the economy at the moment.

在此时的经济下。

It's around about 770 grams of carbon.

这大约是七百七十克的碳。

In the world I describe to you,

我用文字向你描述，

we have to be right over here at the right-hand side

我们必须得达到右手边的

at six grams of carbon.

六克碳的程度。

It's a 130-fold improvement,

这是一个一百三十倍的改进，

and that is 10 times further and faster

而且这是

than anything we've ever achieved in industrial history.

我们在工业历史上至今所实现的十倍之快之深远。

Maybe we can do it, maybe it's possible -- who knows?

我们也许可以完成，也许这是可能的--谁知道呢？

Maybe we can even go further

我们可能做得更好

and get an economy that pulls carbon out of the atmosphere,

形成一种可以将那些碳从大气中吸出来的经济，

which is what we're going to need to be doing

这也正是我们需要在

by the end of the century.

这个世纪中做的事情。

But shouldn't we just check first

但我们难道不应该首先核实

that the economic system that we have

我们的经济体制

is remotely capable of delivering

的能力是否远远不能达到

this kind of improvement?

这种改进？

So I want to just spend a couple of minutes on system dynamics.

因此我想要花费几分钟的时间在系统动态学上。

It's a bit complex, and I apologize for that.

这有些复杂，为此我表示歉意。

What I'll try and do, is I'll try and paraphrase it

我将要试图去做的，是简要解释一下它

is sort of human terms.

是种人类语言。

So it looks a little bit like this.

这看起来有点像这样。

Firms produce goods for households -- that's us --

公司为家庭生产商品--也就是我们--

and provide us with incomes,

并且为我们提供收入，

and that's even better, because we can spend those incomes

这更好，因为我们可以消费这些收入

on more goods and services.

在更多的商品和服务上。

That's called the circular flow of the economy.

这叫做经济循环。

It looks harmless enough.

它看起来一点都无害。

I just want to highlight one key feature of this system,

我只是想强调这个体制中的一个最重要的特征，

which is the role of investment.

也就是投资的作用。

Now investment constitutes

现在投资构成

only about a fifth of the national income

仅仅大约百分之二十的国民收入

in most modern economies,

在大部分现代经济中，

but it plays an absolutely vital role.

但是它扮演着一个绝对重要的角色。

And what it does essentially

它本质上所做的

is to stimulate further consumption growth.

是刺激更多的消费增长。

It does this in a couple of ways --

它以几种方式来达到此目的--

chasing productivity,

追求生产率，

which drives down prices and encourages us to buy more stuff.

这将压低价格并鼓励我们买更多的东西。

But I want to concentrate

但是我想聚焦于

on the role of investment

投资的角色

in seeking out novelty,

在寻求创新，

the production and consumption of novelty.

新事物的生产和消费。

Joseph Schumpeter called this

约瑟夫 顺彼得称这是

"the process of creative destruction."

“创造性毁灭的过程。”

It's a process of the production and reproduction of novelty,

这是一个生产和在生产新事物的过程，

continually chasing expanding consumer markets,

持续地寻求拓展消费者市场，

consumer goods, new consumer goods.

消费者商品，新的消费者商品。

And this, this is where it gets interesting,

并且，这正是趣味所在，

because it turns out that human beings

因为它证明了人类

have something of an appetite for novelty.

有着对新奇事物的渴望。

We love new stuff --

我们热爱新事物--

new material stuff for sure --

毫无疑问地新东西--

but also new ideas, new adventures,

但也包括新想法，新的冒险，

new experiences.

新的经验。

But the materiality matters too,

但物质性也至关重要。

because in every society

因为，在每一个社会里

that anthropologists have looked at,

人类学者曾研究过的，

material stuff

物质性东西

operates as a kind of language --

犹如一种语言般的运作，

a language of goods,

一种商品语言，

a symbolic language

一种象征性的语言

that we use to tell each other stories --

我们用它来向彼此讲述故事--

stories, for example,

故事，例如，

about how important we are.

我们有多重要。

Status-driven, conspicuous consumption

身份地位驱使的，炫耀式消费

thrives from the language

从这种新事物语言

of novelty.

中滋生。

And here, all of a sudden,

现在，突然地，

we have a system

我们有一个体制

that is locking economic structure with social logic --

将经济结构用社会逻辑--

the economic institutions, and who we are as people, locked together

经济制度和我们锁在一起

to drive an engine of growth.

去追求增长。

And this engine is not just economic value;

这个引擎不仅仅是经济价值；

it is pulling material resources

它拉动物质资源

relentlessly through the system,

持续地通过这个体制，

driven by our own insatiable appetites,

被我们无止境的欲望驱使，

driven in fact by a sense of anxiety.

事实上被一种渴望所驱使。

Adam Smith, 200 years ago,

亚当 斯密，两百年前，

spoke about our desire

讲到我们

for a life without shame.

活得光彩一生的欲望。

A life without shame:

高贵的一生：

in his day, what that meant was a linen shirt,

在他的那个时候，这意味着亚麻布的衬衫，

and today, well, you still need the shirt,

今天，你仍然需要衬衫，

but you need the hybrid car,

但是你需要混合动力汽车，

the HDTV, two holidays a year in the sun,

高清电视，一年两次的阳光假期，

the netbook and iPad, the list goes on --

上网本和苹果平板电脑，可以列举出很多--

an almost inexhaustible supply of goods,

几乎是无穷无尽的商品供给，

driven by this anxiety.

被这种渴望驱使。

And even if we don't want them,

即使我们不想要它们，

we need to buy them,

我们得买它们，

because, if we don't buy them, the system crashes.

因为，如果我们不买它们，这个体制会崩塌。

And to stop it crashing

为了阻止它崩塌

over the last two to three decades,

在过去的二十到三十年中，

we've expanded the money supply,

我们扩大了货币供应量，

expanded credit and debt,

增加了贷款和负债，

so that people can keep buying stuff.

为了使人们能够持续不断地买东西。

And of course, that expansion was deeply implicated in the crisis.

当然，那些膨胀与经济危机是有牵连的。

But this -- I just want to show you some data here.

但是--我只是想在这里为你展示一些数据。

This is what it looks like, essentially,

它看起来是这样，本质上，

this credit and debt system, just for the U.K.

这些贷款和负债体制，仅仅是英国。

This was the last 15 years before the crash,

这是（经济系统）崩塌前的十五年。

and you can see there, consumer debt rose dramatically.

你可以看到在这里，消费债务急剧地上升。

It was above the GDP for three years in a row

连续三年超过国内生产总值（注：GDP:Gross Domestic Product)

just before the crisis.

就在经济危机之前。

And in the mean time, personal savings absolutely plummeted.

同时，个人储蓄暴跌。

The savings ratio, net savings,

这些储蓄率，净储蓄，

were below zero in the middle of 2008,

在二零零八年中期是负值。

just before the crash.

就在经济危机之前。

This is people expanding debt, drawing down their savings,

这是人们增加债务，消耗他们的储蓄，

just to stay in the game.

仅仅为了持续在这场游戏之中。

This is a strange, rather perverse, story,

这是一个奇怪的，更确切地说是有悖常理的，故事，

just to put it in very simple terms.

用一个简单的术语来说的话。

It's a story about us, people,

这是一个关于我们的故事，人们，

being persuaded

被说服

to spend money we don't have

去花费我们没有的钱

on things we don't need

在不需要的东西上

to create impressions that won't last

去营造一种不能持久的景象

on people we don't care about.

为了我们并不在乎的人。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

(Applause)

（掌声）

But before we consign ourselves to despair,

但是在我们将自己交付于绝望之前，

maybe we should just go back and say, "Did we get this right?

我们也许应该回过头说，“我们做对了吗？

Is this really how people are?

人们真的是这样的吗？

Is this really how economies behave?"

经济真的是这样运作的吗？”

And almost straightaway

几乎是立即的

we actually run up against a couple of anomalies.

我们实际上遭遇了许多个异常（现象）。

The first one is in the crisis itself.

首先就是经济危机本身。

In the crisis, in the recession, what do people want to do?

在经济危机时，经济萧条时，人们想做什么？

They want to hunker down, they want to look to the future.

他们想顽固坚持。他们想依靠未来。

They want to spend less and save more.

他们想消费较少而储储蓄更多。

But saving is exactly the wrong thing to do

但是储蓄恰好是一件错误的事情

from the system point of view.

从（经济）体制的角度来看。

Keynes called this the "paradox of thrift" --

凯恩斯把这称为“节俭悖论”--

saving slows down recovery.

储蓄减慢经济复苏。

And politicians call on us continually

政治家们持续地号召我们

to draw down more debt,

增加更多的负债，

to draw down our own savings even further,

甚至更多地减少我们的储蓄，

just so that we can get the show back on the road,

如此一来我们才能够将经济重新引向正轨，

so we can keep this growth-based economy going.

我们才可以持续这种以增长为基础的经济。

It's an anomaly,

这是一个反常现象，

it's a place where the system actually is at odds

在这里（经济）体制

with who we are as people.

和我们人类是矛盾的。

Here's another one -- completely different one:

这里是另外一个（例子）--完全不同的一个：

Why is it

为什么

that we don't do the blindingly obvious things we should do

我们不盲目地做我们应该做的那些明显的事情

to combat climate change,

去与气候变化作斗争，

very, very simple things

非常，非常简单的事情

like buying energy-efficient appliances,

像是买节能器具，

putting in efficient lights, turning the lights off occasionally,

安装高效能灯，时常地将灯熄灭，

insulating our homes?

使我们的房子隔热？

These things save carbon, they save energy,

这些事情减少碳，节约能源，

they save us money.

节约我们的金钱。

So is it that, though they make perfect economic sense,

但是事实是这样的，尽管他们有完美的经济道理，

we don't do them?

我们为什么不做呢？

Well, I had my own personal insight into this

我对此有自己的见解

a few years ago.

几年前。

It was a Sunday evening, Sunday afternoon,

那是一个星期天的傍晚，星期天下午，

and it was just after --

就在--

actually, to be honest, too long after --

实际上，说实话，在--

we had moved into a new house.

我们搬进一个新家之后--

And I had finally got around to doing some draft stripping,

我最终开始着手做一些挡风（设计），

installing insulation around the windows and doors

在窗户和门上安装隔热装置

to keep out the drafts.

来减少气流。

And my, then, five year-old daughter

我的，那时五岁的女儿

was helping me in the way that five year-olds do.

帮我一些五岁的小孩子能帮的忙。

And we'd been doing this for a while,

我们持续得做了一会儿，

when she turned to me very solemnly and said,

她转向我十分严肃地说，

"Will this really keep out the giraffes?"

“这个能真的挡住长颈鹿吗？”

(Laughter)

（笑声）

"Here they are, the giraffes."

“是它们，那些长颈鹿们。”

You can hear the five-year-old mind working.

你能听到一个五岁的孩子的大脑是怎样运作的。

These ones, interestingly, are 400 miles north of here

这些，很有趣地，在距离这里四百英里北部

outside Barrow-in-Furness in Cumbria.

的巴罗因弗内斯以外的坎布里亚郡。

Goodness knows what they make of the Lake District weather.

谁知道湖区（注：Lake District: 英格兰西北部风景地）的气候是怎么形成的呢。

But actually that childish misrepresentation

但是实际上那种孩童的误解

stuck with me,

使我无法摆脱，

because it suddenly became clear to me

因为它使突然变得很清楚

why we don't do the blindingly obvious things.

为什么我们不能做这些明显的事情。

We're too busy keeping out the giraffes --

我们忙于阻挡这些长颈鹿--

putting the kids on the bus in the morning,

早晨将孩子们送到公交车上，

getting ourselves to work on time,

使我们自己按时上班，

surviving email overload

避免过量的电子邮件

and shop floor politics,

还有工作上的勾心斗角，

foraging for groceries, throwing together meals,

在食品杂货店寻找食物，匆匆拼凑成一顿饭，

escaping for a couple of precious hours in the evening

在晚间的几个宝贵的小时

into prime-time TV

来看黄金时段的电视

or TED online,

或是TED在线，

getting from one end of the day to the other,

一天又一天的晚上，

keeping out the giraffes.

将长颈鹿挡在外面。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

What is the objective?

目的是什么？

"What is the objective of the consumer?"

“消费者的目的是什么？”

Mary Douglas asked in an essay on poverty

玛丽 道格拉斯在一篇关于贫困的文章中问过

written 35 years ago.

写于三十五年前。

"It is," she said,

“它是”，她说，

"to help create the social world

“去帮助创造社会化世界

and find a credible place in it."

并且从中找到一个可靠的地方。”

That is a deeply humanizing

那是对我们的生命的一种深层的

vision of our lives,

人性化的视野，

and it's a completely different vision

并且它是一个完全不同的视野

than the one that lies at the heart

与那个在这个经济模式中心的

of this economic model.

（视野）相对比。

So who are we?

那么我们是谁？

Who are these people?

那些人是谁？

Are we these novelty-seeking, hedonistic,

我们是那些追求新颖，享乐主义的，

selfish individuals?

自私的个体吗？

Or might we actually occasionally be

又或者我们事实上偶尔地

something like the selfless altruist

是那些

depicted in Rembrandt's lovely, lovely sketch here?

在林布兰特素描中所描绘的美好的，美好的无私的利他主义者？

Well psychology actually says

心理学家说

there is a tension --

这里有一个张力，

a tension between self-regarding behaviors

在利己主义行为和

and other regarding behaviors.

利他主义行为之间的一个张力。

And these tensions have deep evolutionary roots,

这些张力维持着进化的根源。

so selfish behavior

因此自私的行为

is adaptive in certain circumstances --

是适应特定的环境的--

fight or flight.

斗争还是逃跑。

But other regarding behaviors

但是利他行为

are essential to our evolution

是我们进化的本质

as social beings.

作为社会人。

And perhaps even more interesting from our point of view,

从我们的观点来看也许更有趣，

another tension between novelty-seeking behaviors

另一种在探寻新事物的行为和

and tradition or conservation.

传统或保守之间的张力。

Novelty is adaptive when things are changing

新事物是与事物发展相适应的

and you need to adapt yourself.

你需要使自己适应。

Tradition is essential to lay down the stability

传统是制定稳定性

to raise families and form cohesive social groups.

为了养家和组成有凝聚力的社会群体。

So here, all of a sudden,

因此，突然地，

we're looking at a map of the human heart.

我们在注视一个人类心脏的地图。

And it reveals to us, suddenly,

它突然地揭露出，

the crux of the matter.

这件事情的症结所在。

What we've done is we've created economies.

我们所做的是，我们创造了经济。

We've created systems,

我们创造了体制，

which systematically privilege, encourage,

（这个体制）系统地赋予我们特权，鼓励，

one narrow quadrant

人们灵魂的一个

of the human soul

狭窄的象限

and left the others unregarded.

远离他人不去关注。

And in the same token, the solution becomes clear,

同样地，答案变得清晰，

because this isn't, therefore,

因为这不是，因此，

about changing human nature.

关于改变人性。

It isn't, in fact, about curtailing possibilities.

它不是，事实上，关于删减可能性。

It is about opening up.

它是关于开放。

It is about allowing ourselves the freedom

它是关于允许我们自己自由

to become fully human,

称为完整的人类，

recognizing the depth and the breadth

承认债务和

of the human psyche

人类灵魂的宽度

and building institutions

和建造机构

to protect Rembrandt's fragile altruist within.

在其中来保护林布兰特的脆弱的利他主义。

What does all this mean for economics?

这一切对经济意味着什么呢？

What would economies look like

经济将变成什么样子

if we took that vision of human nature

如果我们用人性的眼光来看待它们

at their heart

在它们的内心

and stretched them

延伸它们

along these orthogonal dimensions

用这些

of the human psyche?

人类心灵的角度？

Well, it might look a little bit

它看起来大概像

like the 4,000 community-interest companies

四千个

that have sprung up in the U.K. over the last five years

过去的五年里在英国出现的社区利益公司

and a similar rise in B corporations in the United States,

和在美国B公司的崛起有些相似，

enterprises

企业们

that have ecological and social goals

那些有着生态和社会目标的

written into their constitution

写进他们的章程

at their heart --

在他们的心中，

companies, in fact, like this one, Ecosia.

公司，实际上，像这一个，Ecosia.

And I just want to, very quickly, show you this.

我很快地向你演示一下这个。

Ecosia is an Internet search engine.

Ecosia是一个网络搜索引擎。

Internet search engines work

网络搜索引擎运作

by drawing revenues from sponsored links

通过赞助商链接来获得收益

that appear when you do a search.

这些当你搜索的时候出现。

And Ecosia works in pretty much the same way.

Ecosia也以同样的方式运营。

So we can do that here --

所以在这儿我们可以那样做。

we can just put in a little search term.

我们可以输入一个搜索词。

There you go, Oxford, that's where we are. See what comes up.

好的，牛津，那就是我们要的。看看会出现什么。

The difference with Ecosia though

Ecosia的不同之处

is that, in Ecosia's case,

就在于，Ecosia的情况，

it draws the revenues in the same way,

就是它也是以同样的方式获得收益，

but it allocates

但是它将

80 percent of those revenues

百分之八十的收入分配

to a rainforest protection project in the Amazon.

给在亚马逊的一个雨林保护项目。

And we're going to do it.

我们来做这个。

We're just going to click on Naturejobs.uk.

我们仅仅点击Naturejobs.uk网站。

In case anyone out there is looking for a job in a recession,

假使有一个人在这个经济萧条期找个工作，

that's the page to go to.

这是一个可以去看的网页。

And what happened then was

接下来会发生的就是

the sponsor gave revenues to Ecosia,

赞助商给Ecosia收益，

and Ecosia is giving 80 percent of those revenues

然后Ecosia将这些收入的百分之八十

to a rainforest protection project.

给与一个雨林保护项目。

It's taking profits from one place

它从一个地方获得利润

and allocating them

然后将它们分配

into the protection of ecological resources.

给生态资源保护。

It's a different kind of enterprise

这是一个不同的企业

for a new economy.

在一个新经济下。

It's a form, if you like,

它是一种形式，如果你喜欢的话，

of ecological altruism --

生态型的利他主义--

perhaps something along those lines. Maybe it's that.

也许沿着这条线的一些事。也许就是。

Whatever it is,

不论它是什么，

whatever this new economy is,

无论新经济是什么，

what we need the economy to do, in fact,

我们需要经济去做，实际上，

is to put investment

是去将投资放

back into the heart of the model,

回在这个模式的中心，

to re-conceive investment.

去再-构想投资。

Only now, investment

只是现在，投资

isn't going to be

将不再

about the relentless and mindless

持续和盲目地

pursuit of consumption growth.

追求消费增长。

Investment has to be a different beast.

投资必须得成为一个不同的猛兽。

Investment has to be,

投资要成为，

in the new economy,

在新经济下，

protecting and nurturing

保护和培育

the ecological assets on which our future depends.

决定我们未来的生态资产。

It has to be about transition.

它得是一个过渡。

It has to be investing in low-carbon technologies

它要投资到低碳科技和

and infrastructures.

（低碳）基础设施上。

We have to invest, in fact,

我们需要投资在，事实上，

in the idea of a meaningful prosperity,

一个有意义的繁荣的理念上，

providing capabilities

提供能力

for people to flourish.

为人们繁荣昌盛。

And of course, this task has material dimensions.

当然，这个任务有物质层面。

It would be nonsense to talk about people flourishing

这将是无意义的如果谈论人们的繁荣富强

if they didn't have food, clothing and shelter.

而他们却没有食物，衣服和居所。

But it's also clear that prosperity goes beyond this.

但是繁荣富强远超过于此也是很清楚的。

It has social and psychological aims --

它有社会和心理的目标--

family, friendship,

家庭，友情，

commitments, society,

义务，社会，

participating in the life of that society.

参与社会生活。

And this too

这也

requires investment,

要求投资，

investment -- for example, in places --

投资，例如，在那些，

places where we can connect,

我们能够联系的地方，

places where we can participate,

我们能够参与的地方，

shared spaces,

共同的空间，

concert halls, gardens,

音乐厅，花园，

public parks,

公园，

libraries, museums, quiet centers,

图书馆，博物馆，安静的场所（娱乐中心），

places of joy and celebration,

那些快活和庆典的地方，

places of tranquility and contemplation,

那些安静和让人思考的地方，

sites for the "cultivation

为“培育

of a common citizenship,"

一种普遍的公民意识”的场所

in Michael Sandel's lovely phrase.

是迈克 桑德尔的美好的句子。

An investment -- investment, after all, is just such a basic economic concept --

一个投资--投资，最终，只是一个基本的经济概念--

is nothing more nor less

恰好是

than a relationship

一种关系

between the present and the future,

现在和未来的关系，

a shared present and a common future.

一个共有的现在和一个共同的未来。

And we need that relationship to reflect,

我们则需要那个关系来反射，

to reclaim hope.

来重新获得希望。

So let me come back, with this sense of hope,

让我带着这种希望回过头来，

to the two billion people

到这二十亿人们

still trying to live each day

他们仍然每天试图

on less than the price of a skinny latte

以不到隔壁餐厅一杯低脂拿铁价格的

from the cafe next door.

钱来生存。

What can we offer those people?

我们可以向这些人提供什么？

It's clear that we have a responsibility

很明显我们有一个责任

to help lift them out of poverty.

来帮助他们脱贫。

It's clear that we have a responsibility

很明显我们有一个责任

to make room for growth

来创造增长的空间

where growth really matters in those poorest nations.

在这些最贫困的最需要增长的国家。

And it's also clear that we will never achieve that

这也很明显，我们将永远不能达到（这个目标）

unless we're capable of redefining

除非我们能够重新定义

a meaningful sense of prosperity in the richer nations,

在这些较富裕的国家繁荣的真正意义。

a prosperity that is more meaningful

一个更有意义的繁荣

and less materialistic

和与以发展为基础的模式

than the growth-based model.

相比更少的物质化。

So this is not just

因此这不仅仅是

a Western post-materialist fantasy.

一个西方的后唯物主义的幻想。

In fact, an African philosopher wrote to me,

事实上，一个非洲的哲学家写信给我，

when "Prosperity Without Growth" was published,

在“缺乏增长的繁荣”

pointing out the similarities

指出这种

between this view of prosperity

关于繁荣的观点

and the traditional African concept of ubuntu.

与传统非洲的乌班图（注：非洲传统的一种价值观，类似华人社会的“仁爱”思想）的相似之处。

Ubuntu says, "I am

乌班图说，“我的存在

because we are."

是因为大家的存在。”

Prosperity is a shared endeavor.

繁荣就是一个共同的努力。

Its roots are long and deep --

它的根源长且深。

its foundations, I've tried to show,

它的基础，我曾试图展示，

exist already, inside each of us.

早已存在于我们每个人心中。

So this is not about

所以这不是关于

standing in the way of development.

代替发展。

It's not about

它不是

overthrowing capitalism.

推翻资本主义。

It's not about

它不是

trying to change human nature.

试图改变人性。

What we're doing here

我们在这里要做的

is we're taking a few simple steps

是采取几个简单的步骤

towards an economics fit for purpose.

以适当的经济为目的。

And at the heart of that economics,

在那个经济的中心，

we're placing a more credible,

我们用一个更可靠的，

more robust,

更健全的，

and more realistic vision

更现实的眼光

of what it means to be human.

来看待它（经济）对人类意味着什么。

Thank you very much.

非常感谢。

(Applause)

（掌声）

Chris Anderson: While they're taking the podium away, just a quick question.

克里斯 安德森：在把讲台移走时，很快地问个问题。

First of all, economists aren't supposed to be inspiring,

首先，经济学家本不应该令人感到振奋的，

so you may need to work on the tone a little.

所以你得要在这个基调上多下点功夫。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

Can you picture the politicians ever buying into this?

你可以构想到每一个政治家都相信这些吗？

I mean, can you picture

我的意思是，你可以构想一下

a politician standing up in Britain and saying,

一个政治家在英国说，

"GDP fell two percent this year. Good news!

“国内生产总值今年降了百分之二。好消息！

We're actually all happier, and a country's more beautiful,

我们实际上更幸福，这个国家变得更美好，

and our lives are better."

我们的生活变得更好。”

Tim Jackson: Well that's clearly not what you're doing.

蒂姆 杰克逊：那很明显得不是你现在做的。

You're not making news out of things falling down.

你不会以下降来做新闻。

You're making news out of the things that tell you that we're flourishing.

你会以那些告诉你我们是繁荣富强的东西来做新闻。

Can I picture politicians doing it?

我能否构想政治家做这个？

Actually, I already am seeing a little bit of it.

实际上，我已经看到了一些。

When we first started this kind of work,

当我们第一次开始做这种事情，

politicians would stand up, treasury spokesmen would stand up,

政治家们应该站出来，财政部发言人应该站出来，

and accuse us of wanting to go back and live in caves.

指责我们想要回归到从前，住在山洞。

And actually in the period

事实上在那段时间里

through which we've been working over the last 18 years --

在过去的十八年里，我们一直在做这件事情--

partly because of the financial crisis

一部分是因为经济危机

and a little bit of humility in the profession of economics --

和一些专业经济学（家）的谦逊--

actually people are engaging in this issue

实际上人们探讨此问题

in all sorts of countries around the world.

在这世界上的任何一个国家（都不例外）。

CA: But is it mainly politicians who are going to have to get their act together,

克里斯 安德森：但是这主要是由政治家们一起行动，

or is it going to be more just civil society and companies?

或者仅是一些民间社会和公司吧？

TJ: It has to be companies. It has to be civil society.

蒂姆 杰克逊：必须得是公司。必须得是公民社会。

But it has to have political leadership.

但是它需要有政治领导。

This is a kind of agenda,

这是一种议程，

which actually politicians themselves

事实上政治家他们自己

are kind of caught in that dilemma,

被困在那个难题中，

because they're hooked on the growth model themselves.

因为他们自己被那个增长模式勾住了。

But actually opening up the space

但是实际上敞开来

to think about different ways of governing,

想一想不同的管理的方式，

different kinds of politics,

不同的政治体制，

and creating the space

创造空间

for civil society and businesses to operate differently --

为公民社会和商业不一样地运作--

absolutely vital.

是绝对的关键。

CA: And if someone could convince you

克里斯 安德森：如果某人想要说服你

that we actually can make the -- what was it? --

其实我们可以做到--那个是什么来着？--

the 130-fold improvement in efficiency,

一百三十倍的效能改进，

of reduction of carbon footprint,

来降低碳，

would you then actually like that picture of economic growth

那你是否会喜欢将经济增长构想

into more knowledge-based goods?

于更多的以知识为基础的商品上呢？

TJ: I would still want to know that you could do that

蒂姆 杰克逊：我始终想知道你可以

and get below zero by the end of the century,

在世纪末降到负值，

in terms of taking carbon out of the atmosphere,

就是将碳从大气中抽出来，

and solve the problem of biodiversity

并且解决生态多样性的问题

and reduce the impact on land use

减少对土地利用的影响

and do something about the erosion of topsoils and the quality of water.

做一些事情（来改善）表层土侵蚀和水质。

If you can convince me we can do all that,

如果你能说服我我们能做到这些，

then, yes, I would take the two percent.

那么，是的，我愿意选择那百分之二（国内生产总值）。

CA: Tim, thank you for a very important talk. Thank you.

克里斯 安德森：蒂姆，谢谢你的重要演讲。谢谢。

(Applause)

（掌声）