Tim Jackson: An economic reality check

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I want to talk to you today about prosperity,

Želim vam danas pričati o napretku,

about our hopes

o našim nadama

for a shared and lasting prosperity.

za zajedničko i trajno blagostanje.

And not just us,

I ne samo nas,

but the two billion people worldwide

nego dvije milijarde ljudi širom svijeta

who are still chronically undernourished.

koji su još uvijek kronično pothranjeni.

And hope actually is at the heart of this.

A nada je zapravo u srcu toga.

In fact, the Latin word for hope

U stvari, latinska riječ za nadu

is at the heart of the word prosperity.

je u srži riječi prosperiteta.

"Pro-speras," "speras," hope --

"Pro-speras", "speras," nada --

in accordance with our hopes and expectations.

u skladu s našim nadama i očekivanjima.

The irony is, though,

Ironija je, pak,

that we have cashed-out prosperity

da smo već zgotovili napredak

almost literally in terms of money and economic growth.

gotovo doslovno u smislu novca i gospodarskog rasta.

And we've grown our economies so much

Te smo povećali naše ekonomije toliko

that we now stand

da sada stojimo

in a real danger

u pravoj opasnosti

of undermining hope --

da pokopamo nadu --

running down resources, cutting down rainforests,

smanjujući resurse, rušeći prašume,

spilling oil into the Gulf of Mexico,

izljevajući naftu u Meksičkom zaljevu,

changing the climate --

mjenjajući klimu --

and the only thing that has actually

te jedino što je ustvari

remotely slowed down the relentless rise

usporilo uporan rast

of carbon emissions over the last two to three decades

emisija ugljičnog dioksida tijekom posljednja dva do tri desetljeća

is recession.

je resecija.

And recession, of course,

A recesija, naravno,

isn't exactly a recipe for hope either,

nije točno recept za nadu,

as we're busy finding out.

kao što možemo vidjeti.

So we're caught in a kind of trap.

Stoga uhvaćeni smo u svojevrsnu zamku.

It's a dilemma, a dilemma of growth.

To je dilema, dilema rasta.

We can't live with it; we can't live without it.

Ne možemo živjeti s njim, ne možemo živjeti bez njega.

Trash the system or crash the planet --

Uništi sistem ili uništi planet.

it's a tough choice; it isn't much of a choice.

To je teška odluka. Nemamo puno izbora.

And our best avenue of escape from this actually

I naš najbolji način izlaska iz ovoga je zapravo

is a kind of blind faith

neka vrsta slijepe vjere

in our own cleverness and technology and efficiency

u našu vlastitu domišljatost i tehnologiju i učinkovitost

and doing things more efficiently.

te raditi stvari još učinkovitije.

Now I haven't got anything against efficiency.

Nemam ja ništa protiv učinkovitosti.

And I think we are a clever species sometimes.

Te smatram da smo ponekad pametna vrsta.

But I think we should also just check the numbers,

No mislim da također moramo provjeriti brojeve,

take a reality check here.

i podvući crtu ovdje.

So I want you to imagine a world,

Želim da zamislite svijet,

in 2050, of around nine billion people,

u 2050, od otprilike devet milijardi ljudi,

all aspiring to Western incomes,

sa težnjom prema Zapadnim prihodima,

Western lifestyles.

Zapadnom načinu života.

And I want to ask the question --

I želim postaviti pitanje --

and we'll give them that two percent hike in income, in salary each year as well,

dat ćemo im tih 2 posto rasta u prihodima, u rastu plaća također,

because we believe in growth.

zato što vjerujemo u rast.

And I want to ask the question:

I želim postaviti pitanje:

how far and how fast would be have to move?

koliko daleko i koliko brzo moramo ići?

How clever would we have to be?

Koliko mudri moramo biti?

How much technology would we need in this world

Koliko tehnologija trebamo na ovome svijetu

to deliver our carbon targets?

da ostvarimo ciljeve smanjenja ugljika?

And here in my chart --

Evo mog grafa.

on the left-hand side is where we are now.

Sada se nalazimo s lijeve strane grafa.

This is the carbon intensity of economic growth

Ovo je intezitet ugljika uzrokovan ekonomskim rastom

in the economy at the moment.

trenutno u ekonomiji.

It's around about 770 grams of carbon.

To je oko 770 grama ugljika.

In the world I describe to you,

U svijetu koji vam opisujem,

we have to be right over here at the right-hand side

moramo biti upravo ovdje na desnoj strani

at six grams of carbon.

na šest grama ugljika.

It's a 130-fold improvement,

To je poboljšanje od 130 puta,

and that is 10 times further and faster

i to je 10 puta dalje i brže

than anything we've ever achieved in industrial history.

od bilo čega što smo ikada ostvarili u industrijskoj povijesti.

Maybe we can do it, maybe it's possible -- who knows?

Možda to možemo postići, možda je moguće -- tko zna?

Maybe we can even go further

Možda možemo ići još dalje

and get an economy that pulls carbon out of the atmosphere,

te ostvariti takvu ekonomiju koja izvlači ugljik iz atmosfere,

which is what we're going to need to be doing

što je ono što ćemo morati činiti

by the end of the century.

do kraja stoljeća.

But shouldn't we just check first

No ne bismo li prvo trebali provjeriti

that the economic system that we have

da ekonomski sustav koji trenutno imamo

is remotely capable of delivering

je sposoban isporučiti

this kind of improvement?

ovakvu vrstu poboljšanja?

So I want to just spend a couple of minutes on system dynamics.

Dakle, želim samo potrošiti nekoliko minuta na dinamiku sustava.

It's a bit complex, and I apologize for that.

Malo je složenije, i ja se ispričavam za to.

What I'll try and do, is I'll try and paraphrase it

Što ću probati učiniti, je da ću probati parafrazirati

is sort of human terms.

u ljudskim okvirima.

So it looks a little bit like this.

Izgleda otprilike ovako.

Firms produce goods for households -- that's us --

Tvrtka proizvodi robu za domaćinstva -- to smo mi --

and provide us with incomes,

i omogućava nam prihod,

and that's even better, because we can spend those incomes

te je to još bolje, jer možemo potrošiti taj prihod

on more goods and services.

na još više dobara i usluga.

That's called the circular flow of the economy.

To se zove kružni tok ekonomije.

It looks harmless enough.

Izgleda dovoljno bezopasno.

I just want to highlight one key feature of this system,

Želim samo napomenuti jednu ključnu značajku sustava,

which is the role of investment.

a to je uloga investicije.

Now investment constitutes

Investicije predstavljaju

only about a fifth of the national income

samo otprilike petinu nacionalnog dohotka

in most modern economies,

u većini modernih ekonomija,

but it plays an absolutely vital role.

ali igraju ključnu ulogu.

And what it does essentially

Ono što je bitno

is to stimulate further consumption growth.

je da dodatno stimuliraju potrošački rast.

It does this in a couple of ways --

Radi to na nekoliko načina --

chasing productivity,

ganjajući produktivnost,

which drives down prices and encourages us to buy more stuff.

koja vuče cijene prema dolje i potiče nas da kupujemo još više stvari.

But I want to concentrate

No želim se usredotočiti

on the role of investment

na ulogu investicije

in seeking out novelty,

u potrazi za novitetima,

the production and consumption of novelty.

u proizvodnji i potrošnji noviteta.

Joseph Schumpeter called this

Joseph Schumpeter je ovo zvao

"the process of creative destruction."

"proces kreativnog uništenja."

It's a process of the production and reproduction of novelty,

To je proces proizvodnje i reprodukcije noviteta,

continually chasing expanding consumer markets,

konstantno ganjajući rastuća potrošačka tržišta.

consumer goods, new consumer goods.

potrošačka dobra, nova potrošačka dobra.

And this, this is where it gets interesting,

I ovdje, ovdje postaje interesantno,

because it turns out that human beings

jer ispada da ljudska bića

have something of an appetite for novelty.

imaju određeni apetit prema novitetima.

We love new stuff --

Mi volimo nove stvari --

new material stuff for sure --

nove materijalne stvari u svakome slučaju --

but also new ideas, new adventures,

ali također i nove ideje, nove avanture,

new experiences.

nova iskustva.

But the materiality matters too,

Ali materijalno je također od važnosti.

because in every society

Zato, što u svakom društvu

that anthropologists have looked at,

koje su antropolozi proučavali,

material stuff

materijalne stvari

operates as a kind of language --

djeluju kao neka vrsta jezika,

a language of goods,

jezik robe,

a symbolic language

simbolični jezik

that we use to tell each other stories --

koji koristimo da ispričamo jedni drugima priče --

stories, for example,

priče, na primjer,

about how important we are.

o tome koliko smo važni.

Status-driven, conspicuous consumption

Vođen statusom, očitom potrošnjom

thrives from the language

izdiže se iz jezika

of novelty.

noviteta.

And here, all of a sudden,

I ovdje, odjednom

we have a system

imamo sistem

that is locking economic structure with social logic --

koji povezuje ekonomsku strukturu sa socijalnom logikom --

the economic institutions, and who we are as people, locked together

ekonomske institucije, te koje smo mi kao ljudi, povezali zajedno

to drive an engine of growth.

da vozimo na motoru potrošnje.

And this engine is not just economic value;

I ovaj motor nije samo ekonomske vrijednosti;

it is pulling material resources

on vuče materijalne resurse

relentlessly through the system,

neumorno kroz sistem,

driven by our own insatiable appetites,

vođeni vlastitim nezasitnim apetitima,

driven in fact by a sense of anxiety.

u stvari vođen osjećajem tjeskobe.

Adam Smith, 200 years ago,

Adam Smith, prije 200 godina,

spoke about our desire

je govorio o našim željama

for a life without shame.

za životom bez srama.

A life without shame:

Život bez srama:

in his day, what that meant was a linen shirt,

u njegovo vrijeme, to su značile platnene majice,

and today, well, you still need the shirt,

danas, u biti, još uvijek su vam potrebne majice,

but you need the hybrid car,

no trebate i hibridni auto,

the HDTV, two holidays a year in the sun,

HDTV, dva godišnja odmora na suncu,

the netbook and iPad, the list goes on --

netbook i iPad, lista se nastavlja --

an almost inexhaustible supply of goods,

skoro nepregledne zalihe roba,

driven by this anxiety.

pokreću takve tjeskobe.

And even if we don't want them,

No iako ih ne želimo,

we need to buy them,

moramo ih kupiti,

because, if we don't buy them, the system crashes.

jer, ukoliko ih ne kupimo, sistem se urušava.

And to stop it crashing

A da ga zaustavimo da se sruši

over the last two to three decades,

u proteklih dva do tri desetljeća

we've expanded the money supply,

povećali smo novčanu masu,

expanded credit and debt,

povećali smo kredite i dugove,

so that people can keep buying stuff.

kako bi ljudi mogli nastaviti kupovati stvari.

And of course, that expansion was deeply implicated in the crisis.

I naravno, ta ekspanzija je duboku utjecala na krizu.

But this -- I just want to show you some data here.

No ovo -- Želim vam samo pokazati neke podatke ovdje.

This is what it looks like, essentially,

Ovako to izgleda, u suštini,

this credit and debt system, just for the U.K.

ovaj kreditno dugovni sistem, samo za U.K.

This was the last 15 years before the crash,

Ovo je zadnjih 15 godina prije sloma.

and you can see there, consumer debt rose dramatically.

I ovdje možete vidjeti, potrošački dug rastao je dramatično.

It was above the GDP for three years in a row

Bio je iznad BDP-a tri godine za redom

just before the crisis.

taman prije krize.

And in the mean time, personal savings absolutely plummeted.

U međuvremenu, osobna štednja je apsolutno pala.

The savings ratio, net savings,

Omjer ušteda, neto štednje,

were below zero in the middle of 2008,

su bili ispod nule polovicom 2008,

just before the crash.

taman prije sloma.

This is people expanding debt, drawing down their savings,

Ovdje ljudi povećavaju dugove, smanjuju svoju štednju,

just to stay in the game.

samo kako bi ostali u igri.

This is a strange, rather perverse, story,

Ovo je čudna, prije perverzna priča,

just to put it in very simple terms.

da pojednostavim.

It's a story about us, people,

To je priča o nama, ljudima,

being persuaded

koje se uvjeravalo

to spend money we don't have

da trošimo novac koji nemamo

on things we don't need

na stvari koje nam nisu potrebne

to create impressions that won't last

kako bi ostavili dojmove koji neće trajati

on people we don't care about.

na ljude do kojih nam nije stalo.

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

(Applause)

(Pljesak)

But before we consign ourselves to despair,

No prije nego se osudimo na očaj,

maybe we should just go back and say, "Did we get this right?

možda bi se trebali vratiti i reći, "Jesmo li ovo dobro shvatili?"

Is this really how people are?

Da li su ljudi stvarno ovakvi?

Is this really how economies behave?"

Da li se ekonomisti stvarno ovako ponašaju?"

And almost straightaway

I gotovo odmah

we actually run up against a couple of anomalies.

se zapravo dotaknemo nekih anomalija.

The first one is in the crisis itself.

Prva je u samoj krizi.

In the crisis, in the recession, what do people want to do?

U ovoj krizi, recesiji, što ljudi žele raditi?

They want to hunker down, they want to look to the future.

Žele potisnuti konzervatizam.Žele gledati u budućnost.

They want to spend less and save more.

Žele manje trošiti i više štedjeti.

But saving is exactly the wrong thing to do

No štednja je zapravo pogrešna stvar za činiti

from the system point of view.

sa točke gledišta sustava.

Keynes called this the "paradox of thrift" --

Keynes je ovo nazvao "paradoksom štednje" --

saving slows down recovery.

štednja usporava oporavak.

And politicians call on us continually

A političari nas konstantno prozivaju

to draw down more debt,

da se još više zadužimo,

to draw down our own savings even further,

da povučemo naše štednje još više,

just so that we can get the show back on the road,

samo kako bi se ponovno vratili u igru,

so we can keep this growth-based economy going.

kako bi održali ovu ekonomiju temeljenu na rastu.

It's an anomaly,

To je anomalija,

it's a place where the system actually is at odds

to je mjesto gdje se zapravo sustav susreće sa svojim granicama

with who we are as people.

sa onim što predstavlja čovjek.

Here's another one -- completely different one:

Evo još jedna -- sasvim drugačija:

Why is it

Zašto mi

that we don't do the blindingly obvious things we should do

ne činimo očigledne stvari koje bi trebali

to combat climate change,

da bi se borili sa klimatskim promjenama

very, very simple things

vrlo,vrlo jednostavne stvari

like buying energy-efficient appliances,

kao što je kupovina energetsko efikasnih uređaja,

putting in efficient lights, turning the lights off occasionally,

postavljanje efikasnih žarulja, gašenje svjetla ponekad,

insulating our homes?

izoliranje naših domova?

These things save carbon, they save energy,

Ovakve stvari štede ugljik, štede energiju,

they save us money.

štede nam novac.

So is it that, though they make perfect economic sense,

Zašto ih onda, iako imaju savršenog ekonomskog smisla,

we don't do them?

ne činimo?

Well, I had my own personal insight into this

Pa, imao sam svoj osobni uvid u ovo

a few years ago.

prije nekoliko godina.

It was a Sunday evening, Sunday afternoon,

Bila je nedjelja navečer, nedjelja popodne,

and it was just after --

taman poslije --

actually, to be honest, too long after --

zapravo, da budem iskren, predugo nakon --

we had moved into a new house.

što smo se uselili u novu kuću.

And I had finally got around to doing some draft stripping,

I napokon sam uhvatio vremena za uklanjanje propuha,

installing insulation around the windows and doors

postavljanje izolacije oko prozora i vrata

to keep out the drafts.

da zaustavim propuh.

And my, then, five year-old daughter

I moja, tada, petogodišnja kćer

was helping me in the way that five year-olds do.

mi je pomagala na način koji je svojstven petogodišnjacima.

And we'd been doing this for a while,

I sad smo mi radili na tome neko vrijeme,

when she turned to me very solemnly and said,

kad se je okrenula prema meni vrlo teatralno i rekla,

"Will this really keep out the giraffes?"

"Hoće li ovo zaista zaustaviti žirafe da uđu?"

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

"Here they are, the giraffes."

"Evo ih, žirafe."

You can hear the five-year-old mind working.

Možete čuti petogodišnji mozak na djelu.

These ones, interestingly, are 400 miles north of here

Oni, interesantno, su 400 milja sjeverno odavde

outside Barrow-in-Furness in Cumbria.

izvan Barrowa u Furnessu u Cumbriji.

Goodness knows what they make of the Lake District weather.

Bog zna što oni čine u doba Lake District vremena.

But actually that childish misrepresentation

Ali, zapravo to djetinjasto netočno iznošenje

stuck with me,

me je zaokupiralo,

because it suddenly became clear to me

jer mi je odjednom postalo jasno

why we don't do the blindingly obvious things.

zašto ne činimo očigledne stvari.

We're too busy keeping out the giraffes --

Prezaposleni smo zaustavljajući žirafe --

putting the kids on the bus in the morning,

stavljajući djecu na bus ujutro,

getting ourselves to work on time,

dovodeći sebe na posao na vrijeme,

surviving email overload

preživljavajući zatrpanost e-mailovima

and shop floor politics,

i kupovinu u šoping centrima,

foraging for groceries, throwing together meals,

skupljanje namirnica, spravljanje zajedničkih obroka,

escaping for a couple of precious hours in the evening

bježeći nekoliko sati uvečer

into prime-time TV

na udarne sate TV-a

or TED online,

ili TED online-a,

getting from one end of the day to the other,

dolazeći s jednog kraja dana na drugi,

keeping out the giraffes.

zaustavljamo žirafe.

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

What is the objective?

Što je cilj?

"What is the objective of the consumer?"

"Što je cilj potrošača?"

Mary Douglas asked in an essay on poverty

Mary Douglas je zapitala u eseju o siromaštvu

written 35 years ago.

napisanom prije 35 godina.

"It is," she said,

"To je," kaže ona,

"to help create the social world

"pomaganje u stvaranju socijalnog svijeta

and find a credible place in it."

i pronalazak vjerodostojnog mjesta u njemu."

That is a deeply humanizing

To je duboka humana

vision of our lives,

vizija naših života,

and it's a completely different vision

i to je sasvim druga vizija

than the one that lies at the heart

od one koja je u srži

of this economic model.

ovog ekonomskog modela.

So who are we?

Stoga tko smo mi?

Who are these people?

Tko su ovi ljudi?

Are we these novelty-seeking, hedonistic,

Da li smo mi ovi tragači za novotarijama, hedonistički,

selfish individuals?

sebični individualci?

Or might we actually occasionally be

Ili možemo ponekad zapravo biti

something like the selfless altruist

nešto kao nesebičan altruist

depicted in Rembrandt's lovely, lovely sketch here?

prikazan u ovoj lijepoj Rembrandtovoj skici ovdje?

Well psychology actually says

Pa psihologija zapravo kaže

there is a tension --

da postoji napetost,

a tension between self-regarding behaviors

napetost između osobnog karaktera

and other regarding behaviors.

i ostalih pogleda ponašanja.

And these tensions have deep evolutionary roots,

I ove napetosti imaju duboke evolucijske korijene.

so selfish behavior

Stoga sebično ponašanje

is adaptive in certain circumstances --

je nasljedno u određenim uvjetima --

fight or flight.

bori se ili bježi.

But other regarding behaviors

No ostali pogledi ponašanja

are essential to our evolution

su ključni za našu evoluciju

as social beings.

kao društvenih bića.

And perhaps even more interesting from our point of view,

I možda još interesantnije sa naše točke gledišta,

another tension between novelty-seeking behaviors

još jedna napetost između karaktera u potrazi za novitetima

and tradition or conservation.

i tradicije ili konzervacije.

Novelty is adaptive when things are changing

Noviteti su zarazni kada se stvari mjenjaju

and you need to adapt yourself.

i morate se prilagoditi.

Tradition is essential to lay down the stability

Tradicija je neophodna za stabilizaciju

to raise families and form cohesive social groups.

podizanja obitelji i formiranje kohezivnih društvenih skupina.

So here, all of a sudden,

Stoga ovdje, odjednom

we're looking at a map of the human heart.

gledamo u kartu ljudskog srca.

And it reveals to us, suddenly,

I otkriva nam, odjednom,

the crux of the matter.

srž stvari.

What we've done is we've created economies.

Ono što smo učinili je da smo kreirali ekonomije.

We've created systems,

Kreirali smo sustave,

which systematically privilege, encourage,

koji sustavno prviligiraju, potiču

one narrow quadrant

jedan uski kvadrant

of the human soul

ljudske duše

and left the others unregarded.

a ostale djelove zanemaruju.

And in the same token, the solution becomes clear,

I u istom smislu, rješenje postaje jasno

because this isn't, therefore,

zato jer se ovdje ne radi o tome da

about changing human nature.

promjenimo ljudsku prirodu.

It isn't, in fact, about curtailing possibilities.

To nije ustvari ograničavanje mogućnosti.

It is about opening up.

Radi se o otvaranju.

It is about allowing ourselves the freedom

Radi se o dopuštanju nama samima slobodu

to become fully human,

da postanemo cjeloviti ljudi

recognizing the depth and the breadth

prepoznavajući dubinu i širinu

of the human psyche

ljudske psihe

and building institutions

te stvaranje institucija

to protect Rembrandt's fragile altruist within.

koje će u sebi zaštititi Rembrandtova krhkog altruista.

What does all this mean for economics?

Što sve ovo predstavlja za ekonomiju?

What would economies look like

Kako bi ekonomije izgledale

if we took that vision of human nature

da uklopimo tu viziju ljudske prirode

at their heart

u njihovu srž

and stretched them

te ih proširimo

along these orthogonal dimensions

kroz ove ortogonalne dimenzije

of the human psyche?

ljudske psihe?

Well, it might look a little bit

Pa, moglo bi izgledati kao

like the 4,000 community-interest companies

4000 kompanija orijentiranih prema zajednici

that have sprung up in the U.K. over the last five years

koje su se proširile kroz U.K. zadnjih pet godina

and a similar rise in B corporations in the United States,

te sličan rast B korporacija u Sjedinjenim Državama,

enterprises

tvrtke

that have ecological and social goals

koje imaju ekološke i društvene ciljeve

written into their constitution

zapisane u svom statutu

at their heart --

u svojoj srži,

companies, in fact, like this one, Ecosia.

kompanije, zapravo, kao ova, Ecosia.

And I just want to, very quickly, show you this.

Želim vam samo, nabrzinu, pokazati ovo.

Ecosia is an Internet search engine.

Esocia je Internet tražilica.

Internet search engines work

Internet tražilice rade na način

by drawing revenues from sponsored links

da povlače prihode iz sponzoriranih linkova

that appear when you do a search.

koji se pokazuju dok pretražujete.

And Ecosia works in pretty much the same way.

I Ecosia radi na gotovo sličan način.

So we can do that here --

Stoga možemo to učiniti ovdje.

we can just put in a little search term.

Možemo napraviti jednu pretragu.

There you go, Oxford, that's where we are. See what comes up.

Evo ga, Oxford, tu smo. Da vidimo što smo dobili.

The difference with Ecosia though

Razlika kod Ecosie je zapravo

is that, in Ecosia's case,

to što u slučaju Ecosie,

it draws the revenues in the same way,

povlači prihode na isti način,

but it allocates

no raspoređuje

80 percent of those revenues

80 posto tih prihoda

to a rainforest protection project in the Amazon.

za projekt zaštite prašuma u Amazoni.

And we're going to do it.

I mi ćemo to učiniti.

We're just going to click on Naturejobs.uk.

Samo ćemo kliknuti na Naturejobs.uk.

In case anyone out there is looking for a job in a recession,

U slučaju da netko traži posao u recesiji,

that's the page to go to.

ovo je stranica na koju idete.

And what happened then was

I što se onda dogodilo

the sponsor gave revenues to Ecosia,

je da sponzor daje prihode Ecosia-i,

and Ecosia is giving 80 percent of those revenues

a Ecosia daje 80 posto tih prihoda

to a rainforest protection project.

projektu zaštite prašuma.

It's taking profits from one place

Uzima profit sa jednog mjesta

and allocating them

i alocira ga

into the protection of ecological resources.

u zaštitu ekoloških resursa.

It's a different kind of enterprise

To je drugačija vrsta poduzeća

for a new economy.

za novu ekonomiju.

It's a form, if you like,

To je forma, ako želite,

of ecological altruism --

ekološkog altruizma --

perhaps something along those lines. Maybe it's that.

možda nešto u tom pogledu. Možda je to.

Whatever it is,

Što god da je,

whatever this new economy is,

što god da ta nova ekonomija je,

what we need the economy to do, in fact,

ono što želimo da ekonomija čini, ustvari,

is to put investment

je da stavlja investiciju

back into the heart of the model,

natrag u srž modela,

to re-conceive investment.

da oplodi investiciju.

Only now, investment

Samo što sada, investicija

isn't going to be

neće predstavljati

about the relentless and mindless

upornu i bezumnu

pursuit of consumption growth.

potragu za potrošačkim rastom.

Investment has to be a different beast.

Investicija mora biti drugačija zvijer.

Investment has to be,

Investicija mora predstavljati,

in the new economy,

u novoj ekonomiji,

protecting and nurturing

zaštitu i brigu

the ecological assets on which our future depends.

ekoloških dobara o kojima ovisi naša budućnost.

It has to be about transition.

Mora se raditi o tranziciji.

It has to be investing in low-carbon technologies

Mora se raditi o ulaganju u nisko ugljične tehnologije

and infrastructures.

i infrastrukture.

We have to invest, in fact,

Moramo zapravo ulagati

in the idea of a meaningful prosperity,

u ideju smislenog blagostanja,

providing capabilities

pružati mogućnosti

for people to flourish.

za ljude da procvjetaju.

And of course, this task has material dimensions.

I naravno, ova zadaća ima materijalnu dimenziju.

It would be nonsense to talk about people flourishing

Nema smisla pričati o ljudskom procvatu

if they didn't have food, clothing and shelter.

ukoliko nemaju hranu, odjeću i utočište.

But it's also clear that prosperity goes beyond this.

No isto tako je jasno da prosperitet ide iznad toga.

It has social and psychological aims --

Ima društvene i psihološke ciljeve ..

family, friendship,

obitelj, prijateljstvo,

commitments, society,

opredjeljenja, društvo,

participating in the life of that society.

sudjelovanje u životu tog društva.

And this too

I ovo također

requires investment,

zahtjeva investiciju,

investment -- for example, in places --

investiciju, na primjer, u mjesta,

places where we can connect,

mjesta gdje se možemo povezati,

places where we can participate,

mjesta gdje možemo sudjelovati,

shared spaces,

zajednički prostori,

concert halls, gardens,

koncertne dvorane, vrtovi,

public parks,

javni parkovi,

libraries, museums, quiet centers,

knjižnice, muzeji, mirni centri,

places of joy and celebration,

mjesta radosti i proslave,

places of tranquility and contemplation,

mjesta mira i razmišljanja,

sites for the "cultivation

mjesta za "njegovanje

of a common citizenship,"

zajedničkog građanstva"

in Michael Sandel's lovely phrase.

iz čarobne fraze Michaela Sandela.

An investment -- investment, after all, is just such a basic economic concept --

Investicija - investicija, nakon svega, je samo jednostavan ekonomski koncept --

is nothing more nor less

nije ni više ni manje

than a relationship

nego veza odnosa

between the present and the future,

između sadašnjosti i budućnosti

a shared present and a common future.

podjeljene sadašnjosti i zajedničke budućnosti.

And we need that relationship to reflect,

I trebamo taj odnos da se održi,

to reclaim hope.

kako bi povratili nadu.

So let me come back, with this sense of hope,

Da se vratim, na ovaj osjećaj nade,

to the two billion people

za dvije milijarde ljudi

still trying to live each day

koji i dalje pokušavaju preživjeti dan

on less than the price of a skinny latte

na manje od vrijednosti mršavog lattea

from the cafe next door.

iz kafića u susjedstvu.

What can we offer those people?

Što možemo ponuditi tim ljudima?

It's clear that we have a responsibility

Očigledno je da imamo odgovornost

to help lift them out of poverty.

pomoći im da se izdignu iz siromaštva.

It's clear that we have a responsibility

Jasno je da imamo odgovornost

to make room for growth

da napravimo mjesta za razvoj

where growth really matters in those poorest nations.

gdje je razvoj stvarno potreban u ovim najsiromašnijim zemljama.

And it's also clear that we will never achieve that

Isto tako je jasno da to nikada nećemo ostvariti

unless we're capable of redefining

ukoliko se nismo sposobni redefinirati

a meaningful sense of prosperity in the richer nations,

prema usklađenom osjećaju prosperiteta u bogatijim zemljama,

a prosperity that is more meaningful

prosperitet koji je značajniji

and less materialistic

i manje materijalan

than the growth-based model.

od modela baziranog na rastu.

So this is not just

Stoga ovo nije samo

a Western post-materialist fantasy.

zapadnjačka post-materijalistička fantazija.

In fact, an African philosopher wrote to me,

Zapravo, Afrički filozof napisao mi je

when "Prosperity Without Growth" was published,

kada je "Prosperitet bez rasta" objavljen,

pointing out the similarities

upućujući prema sličnostima

between this view of prosperity

između ovog pogleda na prosperitet

and the traditional African concept of ubuntu.

i tradicionalnog Afričkog ubuntu koncepta.

Ubuntu says, "I am

Ubuntu kaže, "Ja sam

because we are."

zato što mi jesmo."

Prosperity is a shared endeavor.

Prosperitet je zajedničko nastojanje.

Its roots are long and deep --

Njegovo korjenje je dugačko i duboko.

its foundations, I've tried to show,

Njegovi temelji, koje sam pokušao prikazati,

exist already, inside each of us.

trenutno postoje, unutar svakog od nas.

So this is not about

Stoga ovo nije

standing in the way of development.

suprotstavljanje putu razvoja.

It's not about

Ne radi se o

overthrowing capitalism.

svrgavanju kapitalizma.

It's not about

Ne radi se o

trying to change human nature.

pokušaju da se promjeni ljudska priroda.

What we're doing here

Ono što činimo ovdje

is we're taking a few simple steps

je da poduzimamo male korake

towards an economics fit for purpose.

prema svrsihodnoj ekonomiji.

And at the heart of that economics,

I u srži te ekonomije,

we're placing a more credible,

stavljamo vjerodostojniju,

more robust,

zdraviju,

and more realistic vision

i realističniju viziju

of what it means to be human.

onoga što znači biti čovjek.

Thank you very much.

Hvala vam puno.

(Applause)

(Pljesak)

Chris Anderson: While they're taking the podium away, just a quick question.

Chris Anderson: Dok odnose postolje, samo brzo pitanje.

First of all, economists aren't supposed to be inspiring,

Najprije, ekonomisti nebi trebali biti nadahnuti,

so you may need to work on the tone a little.

stoga trebali bi poraditi malo na tonu.

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

Can you picture the politicians ever buying into this?

Možete li zamisliti političare da zagrizu u ovo?

I mean, can you picture

Mislim, možete li zamisliti

a politician standing up in Britain and saying,

političara u Britaniji da se zauzme i kaže,

"GDP fell two percent this year. Good news!

"BDP je pao dva posto ove godine. Dobre vijesti!

We're actually all happier, and a country's more beautiful,

Zapravo smo svi više sretni, i zemlja je ljepša,

and our lives are better."

te su naši životi bolji."

Tim Jackson: Well that's clearly not what you're doing.

Tim Jackson: Pa jasno je da to nebi trebali činiti.

You're not making news out of things falling down.

Ne pravite novost od stvari koje propadaju.

You're making news out of the things that tell you that we're flourishing.

Radite novost od stvari koje vam govore da napredujemo.

Can I picture politicians doing it?

Mogu li zamisliti da političari to čine?

Actually, I already am seeing a little bit of it.

Zapravo, već vidim da se to pomalo događa.

When we first started this kind of work,

Kad smo započeli ovakav način rada,

politicians would stand up, treasury spokesmen would stand up,

političari bi se zauzeli, glasnogovornik financija bi se zauzeo,

and accuse us of wanting to go back and live in caves.

i optužio nas da se želimo vratiti i živjeti u pećinama.

And actually in the period

Ali zapravo u periodu

through which we've been working over the last 18 years --

kroz koji radimo već zadnjih 18 godina --

partly because of the financial crisis

djelomično zbog financijske krize

and a little bit of humility in the profession of economics --

i malo zbog poniznosti u ekonomskoj profesiji --

actually people are engaging in this issue

zapravo se ljudi uključuju u ovo pitanje

in all sorts of countries around the world.

u svakojakim zemljama po svijetu.

CA: But is it mainly politicians who are going to have to get their act together,

CA: Ali hoće li se većinom političari morati sabrati,

or is it going to be more just civil society and companies?

ili će se više raditi o civilnim društvima i poduzećima?

TJ: It has to be companies. It has to be civil society.

TJ: Moraju biti poduzeća. Moraju biti civilna društva.

But it has to have political leadership.

No moraju imati političko vodstvo.

This is a kind of agenda,

To je vrsta agende,

which actually politicians themselves

u koju su zapravo sami političari

are kind of caught in that dilemma,

uhvaćeni u dilemi,

because they're hooked on the growth model themselves.

jer su i sami zapeli na modelu rasta.

But actually opening up the space

No zapravo otvarajući prostor

to think about different ways of governing,

za drugačiji način upravljanja,

different kinds of politics,

drugačiju politiku,

and creating the space

i otvaranje prostora

for civil society and businesses to operate differently --

za civilno društvo i poduzeća da djeluju drukčije --

absolutely vital.

je od vitalne važnosti.

CA: And if someone could convince you

CA: A ukoliko bi vas netko mogao uvjeriti

that we actually can make the -- what was it? --

da mi zapravo možemo to ostvariti - koliko je bilo?

the 130-fold improvement in efficiency,

povećanje za 130 puta u efikasnosti,

of reduction of carbon footprint,

smanjenja otiska ugljika,

would you then actually like that picture of economic growth

bi vam se tada zapravo sviđala slika ekonomskog rasta

into more knowledge-based goods?

temeljena na dobrima baziranim na znanju?

TJ: I would still want to know that you could do that

TJ: I dalje vjerujem da se to može učiniti

and get below zero by the end of the century,

te doći ispod nule do kraja stoljeća,

in terms of taking carbon out of the atmosphere,

u smislu uklanjanja ugljika iz atmosfere,

and solve the problem of biodiversity

i rješavanju problema bioraznolikosti

and reduce the impact on land use

te smanjiti utjecaj na korištenje zemljišta

and do something about the erosion of topsoils and the quality of water.

te učiniti nešto oko erozije tla i kvalitete vode.

If you can convince me we can do all that,

Ukoliko me možete uvjeriti da to sve možemo učiniti,

then, yes, I would take the two percent.

onda, da, uzeo bih ta dva posto.

CA: Tim, thank you for a very important talk. Thank you.

CA: Tim, hvala na vrlo važnom govoru. Hvala.

(Applause)

(Pljesak)