Military robots and the future of war | P.W. Singer

翻译人员: Dennis Guo 校对人员: Karen SONG

I thought I'd begin with a scene of war.

我想从一个战争的片段说起

There was little to warn of the danger ahead.

危机来得毫无征兆

The Iraqi insurgent had placed the IED,

伊拉克叛军将IED

an Improvised Explosive Device,

也就是简易爆炸装置

along the side of the road with great care.

小心翼翼地设置在路边

By 2006, there were more than 2,500

在2006年之前，这样的攻击事件

of these attacks every single month,

每个月超过2500起

and they were the leading cause of

这是造成

casualties among American soldiers

在伊美军士兵

and Iraqi civilians.

和伊拉克平民伤亡的罪魁祸首

The team that was hunting for this IED

搜索这些简易爆炸装置的部队

is called an EOD team—

叫作EOD小组

Explosives Ordinance Disposal—and

爆炸军械处置小组

they're the pointy end of the spear in the

他们是美国压制这些

American effort to suppress these roadside bombs.

用来压制这些土制炸弹的攻击

Each EOD team goes out on about

每个EOD小组会出动

600 of these bomb calls every year,

每年大约600次拆弹任务

defusing about two bombs a day.

每天平均拆除2个炸弹

Perhaps the best sign of how valuable they

或许最能显示他们对于

are to the war effort, is that

战争行动的重要性，便是

the Iraqi insurgents put a $50,000 bounty

伊拉克叛军悬赏5万美金

on the head of a single EOD soldier.

为每个EOD士兵的头颅

Unfortunately, this particular call

很不幸，这次行动

would not end well.

结局悲惨

By the time the soldier advanced close

当一名士兵刚刚靠近

enough to see the telltale wires

可以看到炸弹的引线时

of the bomb, it exploded in a wave of flame.

它在一片火浪中爆炸了

Now, depending how close you are

根据你和炸弹的距离

and how much explosive has been packed

以及那个炸弹中放了

into that bomb, it can cause death

多少炸药，极有可能死亡

or injury. You have to be as far as

或者受伤。你至少要距离

50 yards away to escape that.

50码远才能安全逃脱

The blast is so strong it can even break

爆炸强烈到就算你没有被直接打击

your limbs, even if you're not hit.

也可能四肢断掉

That soldier had been on top of the bomb.

那名士兵就在炸弹的正上方

And so when the rest of the team advanced

所以当其他队员赶到时

they found little left. And that night the unit's

已经没有什么余骸剩下了

commander did a sad duty, and he wrote

那天晚上，部队指挥官在悲痛中履行了长官职责

a condolence letter back to the United

他写了一封吊唁信并寄回了美国

States, and he talked about how hard the

他提到了失去这名士兵

loss had been on his unit, about the fact

整个队伍是多么难过

that they had lost their bravest soldier,

他们失去了最勇敢的战士

a soldier who had saved their lives

曾救过他们的性命

many a time.

许多次

And he apologized

同时他为

for not being able to bring them home.

不能将他们所有人都带回家而道了歉

But then he talked up the silver lining

但紧接着，他讲起了

that he took away from the loss.

这次不幸中之大幸

"At least," as he wrote, "when a robot dies,

“至少，”他写道，“当一个机器人死去时

you don't have to write a letter

你不用给它的母亲

to its mother."

写吊唁信。”

That scene sounds like science fiction,

这个场景听起来像科幻小说

but is battlefield reality already.

但在战场上却已经是现实

The soldier in that case

上面提到的士兵

was a 42-pound robot called a PackBot.

是一个42磅的机器人，叫做PackBot。

The chief's letter went, not to some

那位指挥官的信

farmhouse in Iowa like you see

并没有寄给爱荷华的某个农场

in the old war movies, but went to

像老战争片里演的那样

the iRobot Company, which is

而是寄给了iRobot公司

named after the Asimov novel

公司名字来源于阿西莫夫(Asimov)的小说

and the not-so-great Will Smith movie,

以及威尔.史密斯那不怎么样的电影

and... um... (Laughter)...

还有...(笑声)...

if you remember that

如果你们还记得

in that fictional world, robots started out

在小说世界中，机器人从

carrying out mundane chores, and then

做日常家务开始，直到后来

they started taking on life-and-death decisions.

他们开始做出生死攸关的决定

That's a reality we face today.

这就是我们今天面对的现实

What we're going to do is actually just

我们现在要做的

flash a series of photos behind me that

就是为大家展示一系列照片

show you the reality of robots used in war

关于军事机器人的现实

right now or already at the prototype stage.

已在使用的，或是处于雏形阶段的

It's just to give you a taste.

这只是让各位见识一下

Another way of putting it is you're not

换一种说法，便是各位

going to see anything that's powered

不会看到任何靠瓦肯星的

by Vulcan technology, or teenage

科技运转的事物，也不会有类似

wizard hormones or anything like that.

青年魔法荷尔蒙之类的东西

This is all real. So why don't we

这些都是真实的

go ahead and start those pictures.

让我们开始展示这些照片吧

Something big is going on in war today,

今天的战争正在经历着翻天覆地的变化

and maybe even the history of humanity

也可能改变人道主义的历史

itself. The U.S. military went into Iraq with

美国军队在进入伊拉克时

a handful of drones in the air.

只有五架无人机

We now have 5,300.

我们现在有5300架

We went in with zero unmanned ground

进入伊拉克时我们尚没有一个无人地面系统

systems. We now have 12,000.

我们现在有12000个

And the tech term "killer application"

而本身作为一个科技词汇的“杀手级应用”

takes on new meaning in this space.

在这个领域中获得了新的意义。

And we need to remember that we're

而我们需要记住

talking about the Model T Fords,

现在所讲的技术只相当于福特T型车

the Wright Flyers, compared

和莱特飞行器的级别

to what's coming soon.

与即将出现的的技术相比

That's where we're at right now.

这就是我们的现状

One of the people that I recently met with

我最近会见过的一个人

was an Air Force three-star general, and he

是一位空军的三星上将

said basically, where we're headed very

他说，在不远的将来

soon is tens of thousands of robots

我们将会有成千上万个机器人

operating in our conflicts, and these

投入到武装对抗中

numbers matter, because we're not just

这些数字很重要，因为我们不只是

talking about tens of thousands of today's

在讲成千上万个

robots, but tens of thousands of these

今天的机器人，而是成千上万个

prototypes and tomorrow's robots, because

概念雏形和未来的机器人

of course, one of the things that's operating

因为，主导科技发展之一

in technology is Moore's Law,

的摩尔定律说

that you can pack in more and more

这些机器人可以拥有

computing power into those robots, and so

越来越强大的计算能力

flash forward around 25 years,

所以大概25年后

if Moore's Law holds true,

如果摩尔定律成立

those robots will be close to a billion times

这些机器人会比今天的拥有

more powerful in their computing than today.

强大上亿倍的计算能力

And so what that means is the kind of

这意味着

things that we used to only talk about at

那些我们以前只能在

science fiction conventions like Comic-Con

像动漫展这种科幻小说展谈论的事情

have to be talked about in the halls

将会在像五角大楼

of power and places like the Pentagon.

这样权利中心被提起

A robots revolution is upon us.

我们正在经历着一场机器人革命

Now, I need to be clear here.

现在我想澄清一件事

I'm not talking about a revolution where you

我不是在说那种革命

have to worry about the Governor of

那种你需要担心加利福尼亚州长

California showing up at your door,

以终结者的身份出现在你家门口

a la the Terminator. (Laughter)

的那种革命（笑声）

When historians look at this period, they're

当历史学家回顾这段时期

going to conclude that we're in a different

他们会认为我们在经历一场不一样的革命

type of revolution: a revolution in war,

战争的革命

like the invention of the atomic bomb.

就像原子弹的发明一样

But it may be even bigger than that,

而这有可能比原子弹更重要

because our unmanned systems don't just

因为我们的无人驾驶系统

affect the "how" of war-fighting,

将不仅仅影响到我们“如何”打仗

they affect the "who" of fighting

它影响到“谁”来打仗

at its most fundamental level.

在最基本的层面上

That is, every previous revolution in war, be

也就是说，过去的每一次战争革命

it the machine gun, be it the atomic bomb,

比如机关枪，比如原子弹

was about a system that either shot faster,

都是关于一个系统 - 要么射击更快

went further, had a bigger boom.

要么射程更远，要么打击更广

That's certainly the case with robotics, but

机器人学也能有这些作用

they also change the experience of the warrior

但同时它也改变战士的参战体验

and even the very identity of the warrior.

甚至是战士的身份

Another way of putting this is that

换句话说

mankind's 5,000-year-old monopoly

人类五千年来对于战争的垄断

on the fighting of war is breaking down

将在我们有生之年结束

in our very lifetime. I've spent

我在过去

the last several years going around

几年中在各地会见了

meeting with all the players in this field,

这个领域的所有参与者

from the robot scientists to the science

从机器人科学家

fiction authors who inspired them to the

到启发了他们的科幻小说作者

19-year-old drone pilots who are fighting

到来自内华达州的19岁无人机飞行员

from Nevada, to the four-star generals

到指挥他们的四星上将

who command them, to even the Iraqi

甚至到伊拉克叛军

insurgents who they are targeting and what

他们的打击目标

they think about our systems, and

以及他们对于这些系统的看法

what I found interesting is not just

而让我感兴趣的不仅仅是

their stories, but how their experiences

他们的故事，而是他们的经历

point to these ripple effects that are going

指出了一些因为涟漪作用而被影响到的

outwards in our society, in our law

我们的社会、法律

and our ethics, etc. And so what I'd like

和伦理

to do with my remaining time is basically

我想用余下的时间

flesh out a couple of these.

讲述其中几个看法

So the first is that the future of war,

第一，战争的未来

even a robotics one, is not going to be

就算机器人化了，未来也不会

purely an American one.

纯粹的属于美国

The U.S. is currently ahead in military

美国目前在军事机器人上领先

robotics right now, but we know that in

但我们知道

technology there's no such thing as

在科技中

a permanent first move or advantage.

没有永远的先手或有利地位

In a quick show of hands, how many

请还在使用

people in this room still use

王氏电脑的人

Wang Computers? (Laughter)

快速的举下手。（笑声）

It's the same thing in war. The British and

战争也是一样

the French invented the tank.

英国人和法国人发明了坦克

The Germans figured out how

德国人发掘了它的潜力

to use it right, and so what we have to

所以我们需要

think about for the U.S. is that we are

虽然我们美国现在

ahead right now, but you have

但仍有

43 other countries out there

其他43个国家

working on military robotics, and they

也在研发军事机器人

include all the interesting countries like

在这其中便包括了

Russia, China, Pakistan, Iran.

俄罗斯、中国、巴基斯坦、和伊朗

And this raises a bigger worry for me.

而这让我更加担心

How do we move forward in this revolution

我们如何能在这场革命中前行？

given the state of our manufacturing

以我们如今的生产状况

and the state of our science and

学校中关于科学

mathematics training in our schools?

和数学的教育状况

Or another way of thinking about this is,

换句话说

what does it mean to go to war increasingly

当我们加剧使用

with soldiers whose hardware is made

有着在中国制造的硬件

in China and software is written in India?

和在印度写的软件的士兵，战争会变成什么样子？

But just as software has gone open-source,

但就像软件有着开放源码

so has warfare.

战争也是如此

Unlike an aircraft carrier or an atomic bomb,

不像航空母舰或原子弹

you don't need a massive manufacturing

建造机器人不需要庞大的

system to build robotics. A lot of it is

生产系统。很多部件

off the shelf. A lot of it's even do-it-yourself.

在商店便买的到，自己也可以制造很多部件

One of those things you just saw flashed

你们刚刚看到的一张照片

before you was a raven drone, the handheld

是一驾用手掷的掠夺者无人飞行机。

tossed one. For about a thousand dollars,

花大概一千美元

you can build one yourself, equivalent to

你便可以自己建造一个

what the soldiers use in Iraq.

和士兵在伊拉克用的一样

That raises another wrinkle when it comes

这对于战争和冲突来说又多添加了

to war and conflict. Good guys might play

一层考虑。好人可能会

around and work on these as hobby kits,

把它当作业余爱好

but so might bad guys.

但坏人也会

This cross between robotics and things like

机器人学和恐怖主义的

terrorism is going to be fascinating

的产物让人

and even disturbing,

异常不安

and we've already seen it start.

而我们已经看到了它的开始

During the war between Israel, a state,

当以色列，一个国家

and Hezbollah, a non-state actor,

和真主党，一个非国家组织的战争中

the non-state actor flew

这个非国家组织

four different drones against Israel.

对以色列用了四种不同的无人飞行机

There's already a jihadi website

网上也已经有了一个圣战网站

that you can go on and remotely

你可以在家中的电脑前

detonate an IED in Iraq while sitting

在上面远程引爆一个

at your home computer.

伊拉克的IED

And so I think what we're going to see is

所以我觉得

two trends take place with this.

这会带来两个趋势

First is, you're going to reinforce the power

第一，个人

of individuals against governments,

对抗政府的力量将会增强

but then the second is that

第二

we are going to see an expansion

我们将会看到

in the realm of terrorism.

恐怖主义的会扩展

The future of it may be a cross between

未来可能会出现一种

al Qaeda 2.0 and the

由基地组织2.0和

next generation of the Unabomber.

新一代的炸弹客交汇的产物

And another way of thinking about this

换句话说

is the fact that, remember, you don't have

实际上，请记住，你不需要

to convince a robot that they're gonna

用这样的理由说服一个机器人

receive 72 virgins after they die

让它相信死后能得到72个处女

to convince them to blow themselves up.

从而说服它们去做人肉炸弹

But the ripple effects of this are going to go

而这涟漪作用也将会渗入

out into our politics. One of the people that

我们的政治。我所见过的

I met with was a former Assistant Secretary of

其中一人是罗纳德.里根的

Defense for Ronald Reagan, and he put it

前国务卿助理。他这么说：

this way: "I like these systems because

“我喜欢这些系统

they save American lives, but I worry about

因为它们能拯救美国人的性命，但我担心

more marketization of wars,

战争的市场化

more shock-and-awe talk,

以更多的震慑行动

to defray discussion of the costs.

来减轻关于代价的讨论

People are more likely to support the use

人们更倾向于支持武力手段

of force if they view it as costless."

如果他们认为这代价很低。”

Robots for me take certain trends

对于我来说，机器人

that are already in play in our body politic,

将一些已经存在在我们政治中的趋势

and maybe take them to

带到了它们

their logical ending point.

逻辑的终点

We don't have a draft. We don't

我们不再拟稿，我们也

have declarations of war anymore.

不再宣战。

We don't buy war bonds anymore.

我们不再购买战争债券

And now we have the fact that we're

而现在事实上我们正在

converting more and more of our American

正在将越来越多的美军士兵

soldiers that we would send into harm's

那些本应亲身赴险的士兵

way into machines, and so we may take

替换成机器人

those already lowering bars to war

将已经非常低的战争门槛

and drop them to the ground.

一降到底。

But the future of war is also going to be

但未来的战争也会是

a YouTube war.

一场 Youtube 战争

That is, our new technologies don't merely

也就是说，我们的新科技不仅仅

remove humans from risk.

消除了人类的危险

They also record everything that they see.

它们也记录着我们看到的一切

So they don't just delink the public:

所以它们不仅让大众与战争脱钩

they reshape its relationship with war.

它们重新塑造了大众和战争的关系

There's already several thousand

已经有几千个

video clips of combat footage from Iraq

关于伊拉克的实况视频录像

on YouTube right now,

在YouTube上可以看到

most of it gathered by drones.

大部分影像由无人机收集

Now, this could be a good thing.

这可以是件好事

It could be building connections between

它可以在家园

the home front and the war front

和战争前线中建立一种

as never before.

以前未有过的联系

But remember, this is taking place

但请记住，这些的发生在

in our strange, weird world, and so

我们这个奇怪荒谬的世界中

inevitably the ability to download these

最终，只要能下载

video clips to, you know, your iPod

这些录像到你的 iPod

or your Zune gives you

或 Zune

the ability to turn it into entertainment.

你就能把它们娱乐化

Soldiers have a name for these clips.

士兵们给这些录像取了名字

They call it war porn.

他们叫它战争色情

The typical one that I was sent was

典型的例子是我曾收到

an email that had an attachment of

一封电子邮件的附件中

video of a Predator strike taking out

有一段“掠夺者”无人机攻击一个敌军据点的录像

an enemy site. Missile hits,

导弹命中

bodies burst into the air with the explosion.

人被爆炸炸入空中

It was set to music.

录像还加了背景音乐

It was set to the pop song

是流行歌曲

"I Just Want To Fly" by Sugar Ray.

Sugar Ray的"I just want to Fly"

This ability to watch more

人们能看到更多

but experience less creates a wrinkle

但却感受更少

in the public's relationship with war.

这将对公众和战争的关系带来负面影响

I think about this with a sports parallel.

我用一种体育来比喻这种关系

It's like the difference between

这是截然不同的：

watching an NBA game, a professional

在电视机前观看NBA职业篮球赛

basketball game on TV, where the athletes

运动员们

are tiny figures on the screen, and

只是一个个银幕上的小人

being at that basketball game in person

而在现场看球赛时

and realizing what someone seven feet

亲身感受身高2米的人

really does look like.

真正是什么样子

But we have to remember,

但我们需要记住

these are just the clips.

这些只是（战争录像）片段

These are just the ESPN SportsCenter

这些只是类似ESPN体育中心版本的比赛片段

version of the game. They lose the context.

没有背景信息

They lose the strategy.

鲜少涉及战略

They lose the humanity. War just

更加丧失人性

becomes slam dunks and smart bombs.

战争变成了灌篮和跟踪导弹

Now the irony of all this is that

这一切中最讽刺的便是

while the future of war may involve

虽然未来的战争会有

more and more machines,

越来越多的机械参与其中

it's our human psychology that's driving

但我们人类的心理才是一切的源头

all of this, it's our human failings

人性的弱点

that are leading to these wars.

才会导致战争

So one example of this that has

有一个例子

big resonance in the policy realm is

在政策方面有着共鸣

how this plays out on our very real

这会如何改变

war of ideas that we're fighting

我们与激进组织的

against radical groups.

理念战争

What is the message that we think we are

我们认为机械的运用

sending with these machines versus what

将传达出什么样的信息

is being received in terms of the message.

以及对方将如何理解这些信息

So one of the people that I met was

我见过的其中一个人

a senior Bush Administration official,

曾经是布什政府的工作人员

who had this to say about

他这样说起

our unmanning of war:

我们的无人战争

"It plays to our strength. The thing that

“这是我们的长处

scares people is our technology."

人们害怕的便是我们的科技”

But when you go out and meet with people,

但当你在各地和人们交谈时

for example in Lebanon, it's a very

比如说在黎巴嫩

different story. One of the people

人们的想法又是完全不同。我在那

I met with there was a news editor, and

我在那儿遇到的了一位新闻编辑

we're talking as a drone is flying above him,

当我们在交谈时一架无人飞行机飞过他的头顶

and this is what he had to say.

然后他说了这样的话：

"This is just another sign of the coldhearted

“这只是另一个以色列人

cruel Israelis and Americans,

和美国人冷血残酷的证明

who are cowards because

他们懦弱到

they send out machines to fight us.

只敢用机器来和我们打仗

They don't want to fight us like real men,

他们不愿意像真正的男人一样来打仗

but they're afraid to fight,

他们不敢战斗

so we just have to kill a few of their soldiers

所以我们只需要杀死少许几个士兵

to defeat them."

便可以击溃他们。”

The future of war also is featuring

未来的战争也将引进

a new type of warrior,

一种新的战士

and it's actually redefining the experience

并重新定义

of going to war.

上战场的经历

You can call this a cubicle warrior.

你可以称之为“格子间战士”

This is what one Predator drone pilot

一名“掠夺者”无人机的飞行员

described of his experience fighting

这样描述他的战斗经历

in the Iraq War while never leaving Nevada.

加入伊拉克战争的战斗，却从未离开内华达

"You're going to war for 12 hours,

“你参战12个小时

shooting weapons at targets,

用武器射击目标

directing kills on enemy combatants,

射杀敌军战斗人员

and then you get in the car

然后你钻进汽车

and you drive home and within 20 minutes,

在20分钟内开车回到家

you're sitting at the dinner table

之后便坐在晚餐桌前

talking to your kids about their homework."

和孩子们聊他们的功课。"

Now, the psychological balancing

现在从这两种经历汇总求得心理平衡

of those experiences is incredibly tough,

是极其困难的

and in fact those drone pilots have

事实上，这些无人机的飞行员

higher rates of PTSD than many

患上PTSD （创伤后压力症候群）的比率

of the units physically in Iraq.

比身在伊拉克的部队更高

But some have worries that this

但有些人更加担心

disconnection will lead to something else,

这种疏离

that it might make the contemplation of war

会使得实施战争罪行的考虑

crimes a lot easier when you have

变得更为容易，因为距离太远

this distance. "It's like a video game,"

“这就像是一个电子游戏。”

is what one young pilot described to me

一位年轻的飞行员这样向我描述

of taking out enemy troops from afar.

从远处抹杀敌军部队的感受

As anyone who's played Grand Theft Auto

任何玩过侠盗猎车手的人都知道

knows, we do things in the video world

我们在电子世界中

that we wouldn't do face to face.

会做一些我们在面对面时不会做的事情。

So much of what you're hearing from me

目前你从我这听到的

is that there's another side

就是科技革命

to technologic revolutions,

有着另外的一面

and that it's shaping our present

而它正在重塑我们现在

and maybe will shape our future of war.

甚至是未来的战争

Moore's Law is operative,

摩尔定律适用

but so's Murphy's Law.

墨菲法则同样适用

The fog of war isn't being lifted.

战争的迷雾并没有被吹散

The enemy has a vote.

敌人也要为此负责

We're gaining incredible new capabilities,

我们在获得惊人的新能力的同时

but we're also seeing and experiencing

我们也在看到以及经历

new human dilemmas. Now,

新的人性难题

sometimes these are just "oops" moments,

有些时候这只是意外

which is what the head of a robotics

就像一个机器人公司的领头人

company described it, you just have

描述的那样

"oops" moments. Well, what are

有时意外无可避免

"oops" moments with robots in war?

可是在机器人的战争中，意外代表着什么？

Well, sometimes they're funny. Sometimes,

有些时候它们很搞笑

they're like that scene from the

有时他们就像

Eddie Murphy movie "Best Defense,"

埃迪.墨菲的电影“最佳防御”中的场景

playing out in reality, where they tested out

在现实中重演一般

a machine gun-armed robot, and during

当他们在试用一个装备着机关枪的机器人时

the demonstration it started spinning

在模拟中它将机关枪对准了

in a circle and pointed its machine gun

那些旁观的重要人物们

at the reviewing stand of VIPs.

并开始原地转圈

Fortunately the weapon wasn't loaded

幸亏那武器没有装载弹药

and no one was hurt, but other times

也没有人受伤

"oops" moments are tragic,

但其他的时候，意外时刻非常悲惨

such as last year in South Africa, where

就像去年在南非

an anti-aircraft cannon had a

当一个对空炮发生了

"software glitch," and actually did turn on

“软件故障”时，它真的转过头来开火

and fired, and nine soldiers were killed.

导致了9名士兵死亡

We have new wrinkles in the laws of war

我们的战争法律和责任

and accountability. What do we do

也有了新的变化

with things like unmanned slaughter?

我们该怎么处理像无人机屠杀这种事情？

What is unmanned slaughter?

无人机屠杀是什么？

We've already had three instances of

我们已经有了三起

Predator drone strikes where we thought

我们以为掠夺者无人飞行载具攻击的

we got bin Laden, and it turned out

是本.拉登但后来发现

not to be the case.

并非如此的事故

And this is where we're at right now.

这就是我们现在的处境

This is not even talking about armed,

这还远远没到武装过的

autonomous systems

有着可以决定使用武力的权威的

with full authority to use force.

自主系统

And do not believe that that isn't coming.

别想着这一天不会到来

During my research I came across

在我的研究中我在

four different Pentagon projects

五角大楼中见过了4项

on different aspects of that.

关于它的不同方面的项目

And so you have this question:

然后你就有了这样的问题：

what does this lead to issues like

这将对战争罪行有什么样的影响？

war crimes? Robots are emotionless, so

机器人没有感情

they don't get upset if their buddy is killed.

他们不会因为他们的战友被杀而悲伤

They don't commit crimes of rage

他们也不会因为愤怒

and revenge.

和复仇而犯罪

But robots are emotionless.

机器人没有感情

They see an 80-year-old grandmother

他们会将一位在轮椅上的80岁的老太太

in a wheelchair the same way they see

与一架T-80坦克一视同仁

a T-80 tank: they're both

他们都只是

just a series of zeroes and ones.

一系列的0和1而已

And so we have this question to figure out:

所以我们需要解决这样的问题：

How do we catch up our 20th century

我们如何才能让20世纪的战争法则

laws of war, that are so old right now

衰老过时的

that they could qualify for Medicare,

足以去领退休医保的战争法则

to these 21st century technologies?

迎头赶上21世纪的科技

And so, in conclusion, I've talked about

最后，做个总结

what seems the future of war,

我大概预测了未来战争的趋势

but notice that I've only used

但你们要注意到我只使用了

real world examples and you've only seen

现实世界的例子

real world pictures and videos.

现实世界的图片和影像

And so this sets a great challenge for

这说明我们已经面对了极大的挑战

all of us that we have to worry about well

以及忧虑

before you have to worry about your

远在你们需要开始担心

Roomba sucking the life away from you.

Roomba 机器人汲取你们的生命之前

Are we going to let the fact that what's

我们是否会放任事实的发展

unveiling itself right now in war

只是因为现在的现实所揭示的战争

sounds like science fiction and therefore

听起来像科幻小说

keeps us in denial?

而拒绝承认现实？

Are we going to face the reality

我们是否能面对

of 21st century war?

21世纪的战争的现实？

Is our generation going to make the same

我们这一代是否会

mistake that a past generation did

重复上一代的错误

with atomic weaponry, and not deal with

发射原子弹

the issues that surround it until

而不去及时处理相关的问题

Pandora's box is already opened up?

直到潘多拉的盒子被打开？

Now, I could be wrong on this, and

我的观点可能是错误的

one Pentagon robot scientist told me

一位五角大楼的机器人专家

that I was. He said, "There's no real

这么告诉我。他说：

social, ethical, moral issues when it comes

“对机器人而言，社会、伦理或道德上的问题

to robots.

是不存在的

That is," he added, "unless the machine

当然，”他接着说，“除非那个机器人

kills the wrong people repeatedly.

一再杀死不该杀的人”

Then it's just a product recall issue."

“但那只是一个产品回收的问题。”

And so the ending point for this is

所以这一切的终点

that actually, we can turn to Hollywood.

实际上可以参考好莱坞

A few years ago, Hollywood gathered

几年前，好莱坞聚集了

all the top characters and created

所有的有名的主角

a list of the top 100 heroes and

然后列出了好莱坞历史上前100位英雄

top 100 villains of all of Hollywood history,

和前100号反面人物

the characters that represented the best

可以代表人类最好

and worst of humanity.

和最坏的角色。

Only one character made it onto both lists:

只有一个角色同时登上了这两个名单：

The Terminator, a robot killing machine.

终结者，一个杀戮机械

And so that points to the fact that

所以这指明了

our machines can be used

我们的机械可以用来

for both good and evil, but for me

做好事也可以做坏事

it points to the fact that there's a duality

但对我来说，这意味着人类也拥有着这样的

of humans as well.

矛盾的双面性

This week is a celebration

这一周是祝贺我们创造力的一周。

of our creativity. Our creativity

我们的创造力

has taken our species to the stars.

将我们这个物种带上太空

Our creativity has created works of arts

我们的创造力产生了伟大的艺术作品

and literature to express our love.

以及文学作品来表达人类之爱

And now, we're using our creativity

而现在，我们将创造力

in a certain direction, to build fantastic

用在了一个特殊领域

machines with incredible capabilities,

用于制造具有强大能力的奇异机械

maybe even one day

甚至可能某一天

an entirely new species.

会制造出一个全新的物种。

But one of the main reasons that we're

但我们这么做的

doing that is because of our drive

主要原因之一却是因为

to destroy each other, and so the question

我们想要毁灭他人的欲望

we all should ask:

所有人都需要问这样一个问题：

is it our machines, or is it us

究竟是机械还是我们自身

that's wired for war?

才是为战争而生的？

Thank you. (Applause)

谢谢。（掌声）