Military robots and the future of war | P.W. Singer

譯者: kane tan 審譯者: Regina Chu

I thought I'd begin with a scene of war.

我想從一個戰爭的場景來開始談。

There was little to warn of the danger ahead.

這裡看不出任何徵兆來得知前方隱藏的危險。

The Iraqi insurgent had placed the IED,

事實上伊拉克反抗軍已經在路旁

an Improvised Explosive Device,

很小心的裝置了 IED，

along the side of the road with great care.

那是一種簡易爆炸裝置。

By 2006, there were more than 2,500

在 2006 這一年中，

of these attacks every single month,

每個月有超過 2500 件這類攻擊事件，

and they were the leading cause of

而這些正是造成

casualties among American soldiers

美國士兵以及伊拉克居民

and Iraqi civilians.

死傷的主要原因。

The team that was hunting for this IED

搜尋這種 IED 的小組

is called an EOD team—

被稱為 EOD 小組 --

Explosives Ordinance Disposal—and

爆破性武器處理( Explosive Ordnance Disposal )

they're the pointy end of the spear in the

他們是美軍部隊中

American effort to suppress these roadside bombs.

專門對付路旁炸彈的尖兵。

Each EOD team goes out on about

每個 EOD 小組每年會進行

600 of these bomb calls every year,

大約 600 次這類炸彈任務，

defusing about two bombs a day.

每天大概要拆兩個炸彈。

Perhaps the best sign of how valuable they

也許對他們來說，

are to the war effort, is that

伊拉克反抗軍用5萬美金

the Iraqi insurgents put a $50,000 bounty

懸賞一個EOD士兵的人頭這件事，

on the head of a single EOD soldier.

可以看出他們有多珍貴。

Unfortunately, this particular call

很不幸的，

would not end well.

這種特殊任務不一定能安全完成。

By the time the soldier advanced close

某次一位資深士兵為了看訊號線

enough to see the telltale wires

過度接近一枚炸彈，

of the bomb, it exploded in a wave of flame.

結果它炸出了一道火牆。

Now, depending how close you are

依據你靠得多近，

and how much explosive has been packed

以及炸彈中裝置了多少火藥，

into that bomb, it can cause death

它會導致人員死亡或受傷。

or injury. You have to be as far as

你必須要保持距離

50 yards away to escape that.

在 50 碼以上才能不受波及。

The blast is so strong it can even break

沖擊波強大到足以震斷你的四肢，

your limbs, even if you're not hit.

即使你沒有被炸彈擊中。

That soldier had been on top of the bomb.

這位士兵正身處於炸彈上方。

And so when the rest of the team advanced

而這個資深隊伍的其他人員

they found little left. And that night the unit's

只在稍微左邊一點的位置。而在當晚，

commander did a sad duty, and he wrote

這個隊伍的指揮官做了一件令人難過的任務，

a condolence letter back to the United

他寫了一封哀悼的信回美國，

States, and he talked about how hard the

他描述關於失去他的隊伍他有多傷心，

loss had been on his unit, about the fact

而且事實上，

that they had lost their bravest soldier,

他們失去了最勇敢的士兵，

a soldier who had saved their lives

一位曾經多次

many a time.

拯救他們性命的士兵。

And he apologized

並且，他感到抱歉

for not being able to bring them home.

因為他無法將這個人帶回家。

But then he talked up the silver lining

但是從這個事件中，

that he took away from the loss.

他提到了一絲希望。

"At least," as he wrote, "when a robot dies,

如他所寫的，

you don't have to write a letter

「至少當一個機器人死亡時，

to its mother."

你不用寫信給他的母親。」

That scene sounds like science fiction,

這聽起來像是科幻電影的場景，

but is battlefield reality already.

但這是戰場上真實的事情。

The soldier in that case

在這個例子中的士兵，

was a 42-pound robot called a PackBot.

是一個重達 42 磅，名為 PackBot 的機器人。

The chief's letter went, not to some

這位長官的信，

farmhouse in Iowa like you see

不像你在一些老舊戰爭電影所見

in the old war movies, but went to

寄給愛荷華州的某個家園，

the iRobot Company, which is

而是寄給這家 iRobot 公司，

named after the Asimov novel

名字取自 Asimov 小說

and the not-so-great Will Smith movie,

以及不怎麼樣的 Will Smith 電影，

and... um... (Laughter)...

還有 ... ( 笑聲 ) ...

if you remember that

如果你還記得

in that fictional world, robots started out

在那個科幻世界中，機器人一開始

carrying out mundane chores, and then

只會幫我們做家事，接著，

they started taking on life-and-death decisions.

它們可以決定我們的生死。

That's a reality we face today.

這就是今日我們面對的真實狀況。

What we're going to do is actually just

接下來，我將會用我身後的投影片

flash a series of photos behind me that

來播放一些照片給大家看，

show you the reality of robots used in war

讓大家看看目前被用於戰場

right now or already at the prototype stage.

以及那些已經有原型機(prototype)的機器人。

It's just to give you a taste.

這只是稍微做個介紹。

Another way of putting it is you're not

另外要提一下，

going to see anything that's powered

你們現在看見的這些，

by Vulcan technology, or teenage

並不是瓦肯人的外星技術，

wizard hormones or anything like that.

或是少年巫師賀爾蒙作祟變出來的東西。

This is all real. So why don't we

這一切都是真實的。

go ahead and start those pictures.

我們開始看看這些照片吧

Something big is going on in war today,

人性在現今的戰爭中

and maybe even the history of humanity

出現有史以來的重大改變。

itself. The U.S. military went into Iraq with

當初美軍進入伊拉克時，

a handful of drones in the air.

只有少數的無人飛機，

We now have 5,300.

現在已經增加到 5300 架。

We went in with zero unmanned ground

當時我們沒有無人的地面系統，

systems. We now have 12,000.

現在已經有 12000 架了。

And the tech term "killer application"

而 "殺手級應用" 這個技術名詞

takes on new meaning in this space.

在這兒將會有新的定義。

And we need to remember that we're

請記住我們現在所談的是

talking about the Model T Fords,

拿福特的Model T4 車,

the Wright Flyers, compared

與萊特兄弟的飛機

to what's coming soon.

和即將推出的最新款比較的那種巨大差異。

That's where we're at right now.

這就是我們現在即將看見的。

One of the people that I recently met with

我最近遇到一位

was an Air Force three-star general, and he

空軍三星上將，他說，

said basically, where we're headed very

基本上我們即將面對的是，

soon is tens of thousands of robots

將會有成千上萬的機器人

operating in our conflicts, and these

在戰場上作戰，

numbers matter, because we're not just

而這個數字之所以重要，是因為我們不是談論

talking about tens of thousands of today's

成千上萬的現有機器人，

robots, but tens of thousands of these

而是成千上萬的原型機，

prototypes and tomorrow's robots, because

以及未來機器人，因為，

of course, one of the things that's operating

在現今科技裡面

in technology is Moore's Law,

有個叫做摩爾定律的東西，

that you can pack in more and more

就是說你將可以替機器人

computing power into those robots, and so

裝入更多強力的運算能力，

flash forward around 25 years,

所以往後推算 25 年的話，

if Moore's Law holds true,

如果摩爾定律依然正確的話，

those robots will be close to a billion times

這些機器人在運算能力上

more powerful in their computing than today.

將會比今日強上十幾億倍。

And so what that means is the kind of

這樣的話，

things that we used to only talk about at

我們本來在一些漫畫同人展中

science fiction conventions like Comic-Con

討論的一些科幻小說內容，

have to be talked about in the halls

將會改在掌權者的會議室中談論，

of power and places like the Pentagon.

像是五角大廈這種地方。

A robots revolution is upon us.

機器人的巨大轉變正在發生。

Now, I need to be clear here.

在這兒我必須先說清楚。

I'm not talking about a revolution where you

我並不是在說

have to worry about the Governor of

某天加州州長會以魔鬼終結者型態

California showing up at your door,

出現在你家門前

a la the Terminator. (Laughter)

那種令你擔心的事。(笑聲)

When historians look at this period, they're

以後的歷史學家看我們這段時期時，

going to conclude that we're in a different

他們會寫說我們正處於一種不同的轉變期，

type of revolution: a revolution in war,

一種戰爭型態的轉變，

like the invention of the atomic bomb.

就像是原子彈的發明一般。

But it may be even bigger than that,

但可能還會更加重大，

because our unmanned systems don't just

因為我們擁有的無人系統

affect the "how" of war-fighting,

並不只是影響"如何"去作戰，

they affect the "who" of fighting

它們將影響在機器人最重要的原則，

at its most fundamental level.

它是"和誰"在作戰。

That is, every previous revolution in war, be

就是說，在以往的戰爭型態改變中，

it the machine gun, be it the atomic bomb,

不論是機關槍，或是原子彈，

was about a system that either shot faster,

都只是關於如何作到射得更快，

went further, had a bigger boom.

前進得更遠，或是爆炸威力更大。

That's certainly the case with robotics, but

這些當然也和機器人有關係，

they also change the experience of the warrior

但這將會改變士兵們的經歷，

and even the very identity of the warrior.

甚至是士兵們的身份。

Another way of putting this is that

另外一部分就是，

mankind's 5,000-year-old monopoly

人類在近5000年來

on the fighting of war is breaking down

在戰場上作戰的專利

in our very lifetime. I've spent

將會在我們這個世代中結束。

the last several years going around

過去幾年來，

meeting with all the players in this field,

我到各地去拜訪這個領域的人們，

from the robot scientists to the science

包括了製作機器人的科學家，

fiction authors who inspired them to the

提供靈感的那些科幻小說作者，

19-year-old drone pilots who are fighting

那些身在內華達州

from Nevada, to the four-star generals

負責操縱無人飛機的19歲駕駛們，

who command them, to even the Iraqi

負責指揮這些人的四星上將，

insurgents who they are targeting and what

甚至是被攻擊的伊拉克反抗軍，

they think about our systems, and

詢問他們對這套系統的看法，

what I found interesting is not just

令我感興趣的並不只是

their stories, but how their experiences

他們自身的故事，

point to these ripple effects that are going

而是他們所經歷的這些

outwards in our society, in our law

將如何影響我們的社會，我們的法律

and our ethics, etc. And so what I'd like

以及道德觀之類的。

to do with my remaining time is basically

我會利用剩餘的時間，

flesh out a couple of these.

將這些作一個簡單的說明。

So the first is that the future of war,

首先，戰爭的未來型態，

even a robotics one, is not going to be

甚至是利用機器人的戰爭，

purely an American one.

將不再只是美國的問題。

The U.S. is currently ahead in military

確實現在美國在軍事機器人方面

robotics right now, but we know that in

佔有領先的地位，但是我們知道

technology there's no such thing as

科技這種東西不會有

a permanent first move or advantage.

永遠保持領先這種事。

In a quick show of hands, how many

這樣說吧，請問

people in this room still use

這裡有多少人還在使用

Wang Computers? (Laughter)

王安電腦? (笑聲)

It's the same thing in war. The British and

戰爭也是一樣。英國以及

the French invented the tank.

法國發明了坦克。

The Germans figured out how

而德國人發現該如何

to use it right, and so what we have to

正確的使用它，所以

think about for the U.S. is that we are

我們現在要思考的是，

ahead right now, but you have

雖然美國現在領先，

43 other countries out there

但世界上還有其他43個國家

working on military robotics, and they

正在努力開發軍事機器人，

include all the interesting countries like

包括了那些值得注意的國家

Russia, China, Pakistan, Iran.

例如俄羅斯、中國、巴基斯坦和伊朗。

And this raises a bigger worry for me.

這讓我更加擔憂。

How do we move forward in this revolution

我們該如何利用

given the state of our manufacturing

現有的製造技術、現有的學校科學

and the state of our science and

與數學教育，

mathematics training in our schools?

在這個戰爭型態轉變中繼續向前?

Or another way of thinking about this is,

換個想法的話就是，

what does it mean to go to war increasingly

越來越多士兵在戰場上使用中國製的硬體設備，

with soldiers whose hardware is made

以及印度所寫的電腦軟體，

in China and software is written in India?

這將會是什麼情況呢？

But just as software has gone open-source,

但正如同軟體逐漸趨向開放式原始碼(open source)，

so has warfare.

戰爭也是如此。

Unlike an aircraft carrier or an atomic bomb,

不同於飛機或是原子彈，

you don't need a massive manufacturing

你不需要有大型生產系統來製造機器人。

system to build robotics. A lot of it is

大部分都有現成品，

off the shelf. A lot of it's even do-it-yourself.

有些甚至可以讓你DIY的。

One of those things you just saw flashed

像是各位在剛才的影片中

before you was a raven drone, the handheld

看見的烏鴉號無人飛機，

tossed one. For about a thousand dollars,

手持拋擲的那台，只要大約1千美金，

you can build one yourself, equivalent to

你就可以自己做一台，

what the soldiers use in Iraq.

和那些在伊拉克的士兵們所用的完全一樣。

That raises another wrinkle when it comes

當關係到戰爭和衝突時，

to war and conflict. Good guys might play

這東西就會有不同的用法，

around and work on these as hobby kits,

好人可能只是拿來玩玩，把這些當作興趣而已，

but so might bad guys.

但壞人也會拿來玩。

This cross between robotics and things like

這個介於機器人技術與恐怖主義行為的東西，

terrorism is going to be fascinating

將會變得相當迷人，

and even disturbing,

但又相當令人困擾，

and we've already seen it start.

我們已經看見它發生了。

During the war between Israel, a state,

在以色列這個國家，

and Hezbollah, a non-state actor,

與真主黨這個非國家組織的戰爭中，

the non-state actor flew

真主黨操縱了

four different drones against Israel.

四架無人飛機來對抗以色列。

There's already a jihadi website

你甚至可以坐在家裡，

that you can go on and remotely

使用電腦連到一個Jehadi網站，

detonate an IED in Iraq while sitting

遙控引爆在伊拉克的

at your home computer.

簡易爆炸裝置。

And so I think what we're going to see is

因此，我想這個將會導致

two trends take place with this.

兩種趨勢的發生。

First is, you're going to reinforce the power

第一個是，個人對抗政府的力量

of individuals against governments,

將會變得更加強大，

but then the second is that

但第二個則是，

we are going to see an expansion

我們將會看見

in the realm of terrorism.

恐怖份子的勢力範圍逐漸擴大。

The future of it may be a cross between

未來可能將是

al Qaeda 2.0 and the

蓋達組織2.0與

next generation of the Unabomber.

次世代郵包炸彈客聯手的情況。

And another way of thinking about this

另外一方面的問題是，

is the fact that, remember, you don't have

請記住，你並不需要

to convince a robot that they're gonna

去說服機器人相信

receive 72 virgins after they die

在犧牲後會獲得72個處女，

to convince them to blow themselves up.

以說服它們執行自殺炸彈任務。

But the ripple effects of this are going to go

但這件事將會在政治上

out into our politics. One of the people that

產生一些影響。我曾經遇到

I met with was a former Assistant Secretary of

雷根時代的前國防部助理秘書長。

Defense for Ronald Reagan, and he put it

他曾經這樣說過，

this way: "I like these systems because

"我喜歡這些系統，

they save American lives, but I worry about

因為它可以拯救許多美國人的性命，

more marketization of wars,

但是我擔心

more shock-and-awe talk,

這將會使得戰爭變得更加自由市場化，

to defray discussion of the costs.

會出現更多談論代價的驚人言論。

People are more likely to support the use

當人們認為某種方式是幾乎不需付出代價時，

of force if they view it as costless."

人們會比較傾向去使用它。"

Robots for me take certain trends

對我來說，機器人化是必然的趨勢，

that are already in play in our body politic,

甚至已經在政治體系中出現，

and maybe take them to

也許已經讓它們

their logical ending point.

變得相當合理化。

We don't have a draft. We don't

對於這個我們並沒有任何草案。

have declarations of war anymore.

我們不再有任何戰爭宣言。

We don't buy war bonds anymore.

我們不再買任何戰爭公債。

And now we have the fact that we're

但事實上，

converting more and more of our American

我們正在持續將那些

soldiers that we would send into harm's

原本要送往危險區域的美國士兵們

way into machines, and so we may take

盡量以機器人替代，這樣我們就可以

those already lowering bars to war

讓那些反對戰爭的民調數字

and drop them to the ground.

降至最低。

But the future of war is also going to be

但是未來的戰爭，

a YouTube war.

也將會變成YouTube型態的戰爭。

That is, our new technologies don't merely

就是說，我們的機器人

remove humans from risk.

不只可以讓人們遠離危險。

They also record everything that they see.

同時也會紀錄下它們所看見的一切。

So they don't just delink the public:

所以它們不只是讓人群遠離戰爭，

they reshape its relationship with war.

它們也重新塑造它與戰爭的關係。

There's already several thousand

現在YouTube上

video clips of combat footage from Iraq

已經有數以千計的短片

on YouTube right now,

紀錄著伊拉克戰爭的狀況，

most of it gathered by drones.

大部分都是由機器人所拍攝。

Now, this could be a good thing.

這也許是一件好事，

It could be building connections between

它可以讓一般家庭

the home front and the war front

與戰場之間

as never before.

形成一種前所未有的連結。

But remember, this is taking place

但是，請記住，這正發生在

in our strange, weird world, and so

我們所存在的詭異世界，

inevitably the ability to download these

因此，它們勢必會被人們

video clips to, you know, your iPod

下載到他們的iPod

or your Zune gives you

或Zune裡面，

the ability to turn it into entertainment.

甚至會變成一種娛樂。

Soldiers have a name for these clips.

士兵們給了這種短片一個名字。

They call it war porn.

他們稱呼它為戰爭色情片。

The typical one that I was sent was

我曾經收到一則經典的影片，

an email that had an attachment of

是封e-mail，夾帶了一段掠奪者攻擊的影片，

video of a Predator strike taking out

紀錄著攻擊敵人的陣地，

an enemy site. Missile hits,

飛彈擊中目標時，

bodies burst into the air with the explosion.

敵軍的身體因為爆破而飛上空中。

It was set to music.

它被配上了音樂。

It was set to the pop song

它被配上了一段流行音樂

"I Just Want To Fly" by Sugar Ray.

Sugar Ray的"我只想飛"。

This ability to watch more

這種看得更多、

but experience less creates a wrinkle

但親身經歷更少的情況，

in the public's relationship with war.

導致大眾與戰爭產生一種奇怪的關係。

I think about this with a sports parallel.

我想這就像是觀看運動比賽一樣。

It's like the difference between

這就像是在看一場

watching an NBA game, a professional

NBA比賽一樣，在電視上

basketball game on TV, where the athletes

看職業籃球賽時，畫面上的運動員

are tiny figures on the screen, and

看起來都小小的，

being at that basketball game in person

但是親自在籃球比賽現場時，

and realizing what someone seven feet

你才知道那些身高超過200公分的人

really does look like.

真正是什麼樣子。

But we have to remember,

但是我們必須記住，

these are just the clips.

這些只是短片。

These are just the ESPN SportsCenter

這些是ESPN運動中心版本的比賽。

version of the game. They lose the context.

它沒有故事背景，

They lose the strategy.

它沒有戰略，

They lose the humanity. War just

它沒有人性，

becomes slam dunks and smart bombs.

戰爭變成了像灌籃或是發射飛彈那麼簡單。

Now the irony of all this is that

諷刺的是，

while the future of war may involve

當未來戰爭

more and more machines,

有更多機器人加入時，

it's our human psychology that's driving

那是被人們的心理因素所驅使，

all of this, it's our human failings

那是因為人們的缺陷

that are leading to these wars.

導致這些戰爭發生。

So one example of this that has

有一個激起了政治上

big resonance in the policy realm is

很大迴響的案例，

how this plays out on our very real

就是當我們對抗激進份子時，

war of ideas that we're fighting

我們對於真實戰爭的想法

against radical groups.

會有什麼改變。

What is the message that we think we are

在什麼情況下，我們會決定

sending with these machines versus what

要派出這些機器人，以及

is being received in terms of the message.

派出這些機器人之後會有什麼結果。

So one of the people that I met was

我曾經遇到一位

a senior Bush Administration official,

布希內閣的高級官員，

who had this to say about

他曾經對於這種

our unmanning of war:

無人的戰爭方式這麼說：

"It plays to our strength. The thing that

"它讓我們的力量變大，

scares people is our technology."

令敵人害怕的是我們的科技"

But when you go out and meet with people,

但是當你走出去，遇到其他人，

for example in Lebanon, it's a very

例如在黎巴嫩，

different story. One of the people

這就變成另外一件事。

I met with there was a news editor, and

在那裡我遇到一個新聞記者，

we're talking as a drone is flying above him,

當我們在談話時，有一架無人飛機正在空中飛行著。

and this is what he had to say.

他這麼說：

"This is just another sign of the coldhearted

"這是只是冷酷無情的另一種象徵，

cruel Israelis and Americans,

殘忍的以色列和美國人們，

who are cowards because

他們很膽小，

they send out machines to fight us.

因為他們只敢派機器人來攻擊我們。

They don't want to fight us like real men,

他們不願意像個男人一樣作戰，

but they're afraid to fight,

因為他們害怕戰鬥。

so we just have to kill a few of their soldiers

所以我們必須要殺掉一些他們的士兵

to defeat them."

來打敗他們。"

The future of war also is featuring

未來的戰爭也造就了

a new type of warrior,

不同型態的戰士，

and it's actually redefining the experience

這確實重新定義了

of going to war.

上戰場的經歷，

You can call this a cubicle warrior.

你可以稱之為臥房戰士。

This is what one Predator drone pilot

以下是一位掠奪者無人飛機的駕駛

described of his experience fighting

描述關於他在伊拉克戰爭中的經歷，

in the Iraq War while never leaving Nevada.

而期間他從未離開過內華達州。

"You're going to war for 12 hours,

"你將會前進至戰場上12小時，

shooting weapons at targets,

對著目標物射擊，

directing kills on enemy combatants,

直接殺掉敵人的戰鬥員，

and then you get in the car

之後你開著車回到家，

and you drive home and within 20 minutes,

在20分鐘之內

you're sitting at the dinner table

你就可以坐在餐桌上，

talking to your kids about their homework."

和你的孩子們談論他們的回家作業。"

Now, the psychological balancing

對於這些經歷，

of those experiences is incredibly tough,

在心理上要達到平衡是極為困難的。

and in fact those drone pilots have

事實上這些無人飛機的駕駛員

higher rates of PTSD than many

比起那些在伊拉克作戰的人們

of the units physically in Iraq.

更容易得到創傷後壓力症候群。

But some have worries that this

但是有些人會擔心這種遠距作戰

disconnection will lead to something else,

會導致一些其它問題，

that it might make the contemplation of war

這將會讓企圖進行戰爭犯罪

crimes a lot easier when you have

當你有這種遠距能力時會更加容易。

this distance. "It's like a video game,"

一個年輕的無人飛機駕駛告訴我，

is what one young pilot described to me

在遠距射殺敵人的部隊

of taking out enemy troops from afar.

"感覺就像是電動玩具一樣"。

As anyone who's played Grand Theft Auto

玩過"俠盜獵車手"的人應該會知道，

knows, we do things in the video world

任何我們在真實世界不會做的事

that we wouldn't do face to face.

在電玩世界裡我們可以任意進行。

So much of what you're hearing from me

所以，你剛聽到我所說的

is that there's another side

這些內容，都是科技革命

to technologic revolutions,

的另外一面，

and that it's shaping our present

它正改變現在的我們，

and maybe will shape our future of war.

也許將會改變我們未來的戰爭型態。

Moore's Law is operative,

摩爾定律在這裡是可行的，

but so's Murphy's Law.

同樣的，墨菲定律也是如此。

The fog of war isn't being lifted.

戰爭的硝煙還未散去，

The enemy has a vote.

敵人進行了投票，

We're gaining incredible new capabilities,

我們將會得到驚人的新能力，

but we're also seeing and experiencing

但是我們同時也在經歷

new human dilemmas. Now,

人類新的困境。

sometimes these are just "oops" moments,

有的時候，這些只是一種"令人驚訝"的時刻，

which is what the head of a robotics

這是製造機器人的公司所描述的

company described it, you just have

"你將會有一些令人驚訝的時刻。"

"oops" moments. Well, what are

那麼，對於機器人和戰爭而言，

"oops" moments with robots in war?

什麼是令人驚訝的時刻呢?

Well, sometimes they're funny. Sometimes,

有的時候它們會很好笑。

they're like that scene from the

有時候，它們就像是

Eddie Murphy movie "Best Defense,"

艾迪‧墨菲的電影 "兵來將擋"

playing out in reality, where they tested out

裡面所演的那樣，當他們測試

a machine gun-armed robot, and during

武裝機器人的機關槍時，

the demonstration it started spinning

在展示的期間，

in a circle and pointed its machine gun

它開始轉圈圈，然後將它的機關槍

at the reviewing stand of VIPs.

瞄準觀眾席上的貴賓們。

Fortunately the weapon wasn't loaded

所幸這些武器並沒有子彈，

and no one was hurt, but other times

所以沒有人受傷。但是其他令人驚訝的時刻

"oops" moments are tragic,

則會變成悲劇，

such as last year in South Africa, where

例如去年在南非，

an anti-aircraft cannon had a

一架防空加農砲出現了官方宣稱的

"software glitch," and actually did turn on

"軟體故障"，結果它啟動了，

and fired, and nine soldiers were killed.

並且開火，結果殺死了九個士兵。

We have new wrinkles in the laws of war

我們在戰爭規則和責任上

and accountability. What do we do

出現了新的問題。我們要怎麼處理

with things like unmanned slaughter?

這些無人的屠殺工具呢?

What is unmanned slaughter?

什麼是無人的屠殺工具呢?

We've already had three instances of

我們已經有三次的例子，

Predator drone strikes where we thought

當掠奪者攻擊時，

we got bin Laden, and it turned out

我們以為已經殺了賓拉登，

not to be the case.

但結果並不是如此。

And this is where we're at right now.

這就是我們所面臨的問題。

This is not even talking about armed,

這並不只是在說，

autonomous systems

武裝的自動化系統

with full authority to use force.

擁有完整的權利去使用武器，

And do not believe that that isn't coming.

還有，不要以為這不會發生。

During my research I came across

在我的研究中，

four different Pentagon projects

我接觸了五角大廈針對不同領域

on different aspects of that.

進行的四個專案。

And so you have this question:

那麼你會有這個疑問。

what does this lead to issues like

是什麼導致這些變得像是戰爭犯罪?

war crimes? Robots are emotionless, so

機器人是沒有感情的，

they don't get upset if their buddy is killed.

所以它們不會因為同伴被殺而打亂思緒。

They don't commit crimes of rage

它們不會因為憤怒而犯罪

and revenge.

或進行報復。

But robots are emotionless.

但正因為機器人是沒有感情的，

They see an 80-year-old grandmother

對它們來說，

in a wheelchair the same way they see

坐在輪椅上的80歲老婆婆，

a T-80 tank: they're both

和T80坦克是沒有兩樣的。

just a series of zeroes and ones.

他們都只是一連串 0 和 1 的訊號。

And so we have this question to figure out:

因此我們必須想辦法解決這個問題，

How do we catch up our 20th century

我們該怎麼讓20世紀的戰爭規則

laws of war, that are so old right now

跟上時代，

that they could qualify for Medicare,

對於21世紀的科技而言，

to these 21st century technologies?

只剩下醫療保險還能延用而已。

And so, in conclusion, I've talked about

總結而言，

what seems the future of war,

我已經談論了未來戰爭的樣子，

but notice that I've only used

但是請注意，

real world examples and you've only seen

我舉的都是真實世界的例子，

real world pictures and videos.

你看見的都是真實世界的照片和影片。

And so this sets a great challenge for

對我們來說

all of us that we have to worry about well

這將是一大挑戰，

before you have to worry about your

在你開始擔心

Roomba sucking the life away from you.

你的自動吸塵器殺掉你之前，

Are we going to let the fact that what's

我們必須趕快想好對策。

unveiling itself right now in war

難道我們要讓戰爭中的事實真相，

sounds like science fiction and therefore

繼續被當成是科幻電影一般，

keeps us in denial?

而不願意去面對嗎?

Are we going to face the reality

我們是否要面對21世紀

of 21st century war?

戰爭的真相呢?

Is our generation going to make the same

我們這一代是否要像上一代一樣，

mistake that a past generation did

繼續犯下那種

with atomic weaponry, and not deal with

使用原子彈的錯誤呢?

the issues that surround it until

然後一直不願意去面對這些問題，

Pandora's box is already opened up?

直到潘朵拉的盒子被打開為止嗎?

Now, I could be wrong on this, and

也許我的觀點是錯的，

one Pentagon robot scientist told me

一位五角大廈的機器人科學家說我錯了，

that I was. He said, "There's no real

他說，"對於機器人來說

social, ethical, moral issues when it comes

沒有真假，社會意識，

to robots.

倫理道德等問題。

That is," he added, "unless the machine

唯一的問題是，

kills the wrong people repeatedly.

除非這台機器連續殺錯了人，

Then it's just a product recall issue."

這樣的話，那就是要回廠維修的問題。"

And so the ending point for this is

所以，談論到最後，

that actually, we can turn to Hollywood.

我們來說說好萊塢。

A few years ago, Hollywood gathered

幾年前好萊塢聚集了

all the top characters and created

許多頂尖的演員，

a list of the top 100 heroes and

並且列出了好萊塢歷史上前100名英雄人物，

top 100 villains of all of Hollywood history,

還有前100名壞蛋角色，

the characters that represented the best

這些角色代表著人性中最好

and worst of humanity.

和最壞的特質，

Only one character made it onto both lists:

其中只有一個角色同時存在於名單之中，

The Terminator, a robot killing machine.

就是魔鬼終結者，一個機器人型態的殺人機器。

And so that points to the fact that

這就點出了我們的機器

our machines can be used

可以同時被用於好事和邪惡的事，

for both good and evil, but for me

但是對我來說，

it points to the fact that there's a duality

事實上它也點出了

of humans as well.

人類同時具有善和惡的雙重特性。

This week is a celebration

本週我們有個創造力的慶祝會。

of our creativity. Our creativity

我們的創造力

has taken our species to the stars.

已經讓人類登上別的星球。

Our creativity has created works of arts

我們的創造力製造出藝術品，

and literature to express our love.

以及文學作品來表現我們的愛，

And now, we're using our creativity

而現在我們正在使用我們的創造力，

in a certain direction, to build fantastic

去製造出奇妙的機器，

machines with incredible capabilities,

讓它們具有不可思議的能力，

maybe even one day

也許有一天，

an entirely new species.

會出現一種全新的物種。

But one of the main reasons that we're

但是，令我們這麼做的

doing that is because of our drive

其中一個主要因素，

to destroy each other, and so the question

就是因為我們想要毀掉彼此。

we all should ask:

所以，我們必須要問的是，

is it our machines, or is it us

操縱戰爭的是我們的機器，

that's wired for war?

還是我們自己？

Thank you. (Applause)

謝謝大家。(掌聲)