Military robots and the future of war | P.W. Singer

Prevoditelj: Stjepan Mateljan Recezent: Ivan Stamenković

I thought I'd begin with a scene of war.

Mislio sam početi sa prikazom rata.

There was little to warn of the danger ahead.

Malo toga je upozoravalo na opasnost sprijeda.

The Iraqi insurgent had placed the IED,

Irački su pobunjenici postavili IED,

an Improvised Explosive Device,

Improvised Explosive Device (Improvizirani eksplozivni uređaj),

along the side of the road with great care.

pokraj ceste s velikom pažnjom.

By 2006, there were more than 2,500

Do 2006, bilo je više od 2.500

of these attacks every single month,

takvih napada svaki pojedini mjesec,

and they were the leading cause of

i oni su bili vodeći uzrok

casualties among American soldiers

žrtava među američkim vojnicima

and Iraqi civilians.

i iračkim civilima.

The team that was hunting for this IED

Tim koji je lovio za takvim IED-ima

is called an EOD team—

se zove EOD tim --

Explosives Ordinance Disposal—and

Explosives Ordinance Disposal (uklanjanje eksplozivnih naprava) -- i

they're the pointy end of the spear in the

oni su oštri vrh koplja u

American effort to suppress these roadside bombs.

američkom naporu da suzbije takve drumske bombe.

Each EOD team goes out on about

Svaki EOD tim izlazi na otprilike

600 of these bomb calls every year,

600 takvih bombaških poziva svake godine,

defusing about two bombs a day.

razoružavajući otprilike dvije bombe dnevno.

Perhaps the best sign of how valuable they

Možda je najbolji znak koliko su vrijedni

are to the war effort, is that

u ratnom pothvatu, je kako

the Iraqi insurgents put a $50,000 bounty

su irački pobunjenici stavili nagradu od 50.000 dolara

on the head of a single EOD soldier.

na glavu pojedinog EOD vojnika.

Unfortunately, this particular call

Nažalost, ovaj naročit poziv

would not end well.

neće završiti dobro.

By the time the soldier advanced close

Do vremena kad vojnici napreduju dovoljno

enough to see the telltale wires

blizu da vide izdajničke žice

of the bomb, it exploded in a wave of flame.

bombe, eksplodirala je u valu plamena.

Now, depending how close you are

Sad, ovisno koliko ste blizu

and how much explosive has been packed

i koliko je eksploziva bilo postavljeno

into that bomb, it can cause death

u tu bombu, može uzrokovati smrt

or injury. You have to be as far as

ili ozlijedu. Morali bi biti čak oko

50 yards away to escape that.

50 jarda (~46 metara) udaljeni da to izbjegnete.

The blast is so strong it can even break

Udar je tako jak da može čak slomiti

your limbs, even if you're not hit.

udove, čak i ako niste pogođeni.

That soldier had been on top of the bomb.

Ovaj je vojnik bio točno na bombi.

And so when the rest of the team advanced

Tako da dok je ostatak tima napredovao

they found little left. And that night the unit's

našli su malo ostataka. A te je noći zapovjednik

commander did a sad duty, and he wrote

jedinice izvršio tužnu dužnost i napisao

a condolence letter back to the United

pismenu sućut za poslati u Sjedinjene

States, and he talked about how hard the

države, gdje je pričao kako je težak

loss had been on his unit, about the fact

to bio gubitak za jedinicu, te o činjenici

that they had lost their bravest soldier,

kako su izgubili svog najhrabrijeg vojnika,

a soldier who had saved their lives

vojnika koji im je spasio živote

many a time.

više puta.

And he apologized

I ispričao se

for not being able to bring them home.

zato što nije u mogućnosti vratiti ih doma.

But then he talked up the silver lining

Ali tada je pričao o sretnom detalju

that he took away from the loss.

koji je uočio u ovom gubitku.

"At least," as he wrote, "when a robot dies,

"Barem", pisao je, "kad pogine robot,

you don't have to write a letter

ne morate pisati pismo

to its mother."

njegovoj majci."

That scene sounds like science fiction,

Ova scena zvuči poput znanstvene fantastike,

but is battlefield reality already.

ali to je stvarnost na bojištu već sada.

The soldier in that case

Vojnik je u ovom slučaju

was a 42-pound robot called a PackBot.

bio 42 funte (~19 kg) težak robot imenom PackBot.

The chief's letter went, not to some

Zapovjednikovo pismo nije išlo na neku

farmhouse in Iowa like you see

farmu u Iowu, kao što vidite

in the old war movies, but went to

u starim ratnim filmovima, nego je išlo

the iRobot Company, which is

kompaniji iRobot, koja je

named after the Asimov novel

dobila ime po Asimovljevoj zbirci pripovjedaka

and the not-so-great Will Smith movie,

i ne tako dobrom filmu s Will Smithom,

and... um... (Laughter)...

i... hm.. (Smijeh)...

if you remember that

Ako se sjećate kako

in that fictional world, robots started out

u izmišljenom svijetu, roboti su počeli

carrying out mundane chores, and then

izvršavati svakodnevne zadatke, a onda

they started taking on life-and-death decisions.

su počeli donositi odluke o životu ili smrti.

That's a reality we face today.

To je stvarnost kojoj smo sučeljeni danas.

What we're going to do is actually just

Što ćemo učiniti je zbilja samo

flash a series of photos behind me that

brza serija fotografija iza mene koje

show you the reality of robots used in war

pokazuje stvarnost upotrebe robota u ratu

right now or already at the prototype stage.

upravo sada ili već u fazi prototipa.

It's just to give you a taste.

To je samo da vam da uvid.

Another way of putting it is you're not

Drugi način kako to prikazati je kako ovdje nećete

going to see anything that's powered

vidjeti ništa što je pogonjeno

by Vulcan technology, or teenage

Vulkanskom tehnologijom, ili tinejdžerskim

wizard hormones or anything like that.

čarobnjačkim hormonima ili već čim tome nalik.

This is all real. So why don't we

Ovo je sve stvarno. Pa zašto ne bismo

go ahead and start those pictures.

nastavili i počeli sa tim slikama.

Something big is going on in war today,

Nešto se veliko događa s ratom danas,

and maybe even the history of humanity

a možda čak i sa samom poviješću čovječanstva.

itself. The U.S. military went into Iraq with

Vojska Sjedinjenih država je otišla u Irak sa

a handful of drones in the air.

šačicom bespilotnih letjelica.

We now have 5,300.

Danas ih imamo 5.300.

We went in with zero unmanned ground

Otišli smo sa nula kopnenih sustava

systems. We now have 12,000.

bez posade. Sad ih imamo 12.000.

And the tech term "killer application"

A tehnološki termin "ubojita aplikacija"

takes on new meaning in this space.

dobija novo značenje u ovom prostoru.

And we need to remember that we're

A moramo upamtiti kako

talking about the Model T Fords,

pričamo o Fordovim T modelima,

the Wright Flyers, compared

Wrightovim letjelicama, u usporedbi

to what's coming soon.

s onim što uskoro dolazi.

That's where we're at right now.

Ovo je gdje se nalazimo upravo sada.

One of the people that I recently met with

Jedan od ljudi s kojima sam se nedavno sreo

was an Air Force three-star general, and he

je bio general-pukovnik zračnih snaga, i

said basically, where we're headed very

rekao je u osnovi, kamo idemo vrlo

soon is tens of thousands of robots

uskoro su deseci tisuća robota

operating in our conflicts, and these

koji djeluju u našim sukobima, a ti

numbers matter, because we're not just

brojevi znače, jer ne pričamo samo

talking about tens of thousands of today's

o desecima tisuća današnjih

robots, but tens of thousands of these

robota, već desecima tisuća tih

prototypes and tomorrow's robots, because

prototipova i sutrašnjih robota, jer

of course, one of the things that's operating

naravno, jedna od stvari koje djeluju

in technology is Moore's Law,

u tehnologiji je Mooreov zakon,

that you can pack in more and more

kako možete utrpati više i više

computing power into those robots, and so

računalne moći u te robote, i tako

flash forward around 25 years,

premotajmo unaprijed 25 godina,

if Moore's Law holds true,

ako se Mooreov zakon održi,

those robots will be close to a billion times

ti će roboti biti gotovo milijardu puta

more powerful in their computing than today.

moćniji u svojem računanju nego danas.

And so what that means is the kind of

A što to znači je kako vrste

things that we used to only talk about at

stvari o kojima smo navikli pričati samo na

science fiction conventions like Comic-Con

znanstveno fantastičnim konvencijama poput Comic-Cona

have to be talked about in the halls

moraju biti raspravljene i u dvoranama moći

of power and places like the Pentagon.

i mjestima poput Pentagona.

A robots revolution is upon us.

Robotska je revolucija ovdje.

Now, I need to be clear here.

Sad, trebam ovdje biti jasan.

I'm not talking about a revolution where you

Ne govorim o revoluciji gdje se

have to worry about the Governor of

morate brinuti o guverneru

California showing up at your door,

Kalifornije kako vam se pojavljuje pred vratima,

a la the Terminator. (Laughter)

a la Terminator. (Smijeh)

When historians look at this period, they're

Kad će povjesničari gledati ovo razdoblje,

going to conclude that we're in a different

zaključit će kako smo u drugačijem

type of revolution: a revolution in war,

tipu revolucije: u obratu rata,

like the invention of the atomic bomb.

poput izuma atomske bombe.

But it may be even bigger than that,

Ali može biti čak i veća od toga,

because our unmanned systems don't just

stoga što sustavi bez posade ne utječu samo

affect the "how" of war-fighting,

na to "kako" se vodi rat,

they affect the "who" of fighting

već utječu na "tko" se bori

at its most fundamental level.

na najtemeljnijoj razini.

That is, every previous revolution in war, be

To jest, svaki prethodni obrat ratovanja,

it the machine gun, be it the atomic bomb,

bila to strojnica, bila to atomska bomba,

was about a system that either shot faster,

je bio o sustavu koji ili puca brže,

went further, had a bigger boom.

ide dalje, ima veći bum.

That's certainly the case with robotics, but

To je sigurno slučaj i sa robotikom, ali

they also change the experience of the warrior

također mijenja iskustvo ratnika

and even the very identity of the warrior.

i čak i sam identitet ratnika.

Another way of putting this is that

Drugi način da to kažemo

mankind's 5,000-year-old monopoly

je kako se 5.000 godina star monopol čovječanstva

on the fighting of war is breaking down

na vođenje rata raspada

in our very lifetime. I've spent

unutar našeg životnog vijeka. Potrošio sam

the last several years going around

zadnjih nekoliko godina obilazeći uokolo

meeting with all the players in this field,

susrećući se sa svim igračima u ovom polju,

from the robot scientists to the science

od znanstvenika oko robota do

fiction authors who inspired them to the

autora znanstvene fantastike koji su ih nadahnuli do

19-year-old drone pilots who are fighting

19-godišnjih pilota dronova koji se bore

from Nevada, to the four-star generals

iz Nevade, do generala zbora

who command them, to even the Iraqi

koji im zapovijedaju, čak do

insurgents who they are targeting and what

iračkih pobunjenika koje oni ciljaju

they think about our systems, and

i što oni misle o našim sustavima, a

what I found interesting is not just

što sam našao zanimljivim nisu samo

their stories, but how their experiences

njihove priče, nego kako njihova iskustva

point to these ripple effects that are going

ukazuju na učinke tog talasanja koji prelaze u

outwards in our society, in our law

naše društvo, u naše zakone,

and our ethics, etc. And so what I'd like

u našu etiku itd. A što bih volio učiniti

to do with my remaining time is basically

sa svojim preostalim vremenom je u biti

flesh out a couple of these.

ukazati na neki broj tih učinaka.

So the first is that the future of war,

prvi je kako budućnost rata,

even a robotics one, is not going to be

pa čak i robotskog, neće biti

purely an American one.

čisto američka.

The U.S. is currently ahead in military

Sjedinjene države trenutno predvode u vojnoj

robotics right now, but we know that in

robotici, ali znamo kako u

technology there's no such thing as

tehnologiji nema takve stvari kao

a permanent first move or advantage.

stalna prednost prvog poteza.

In a quick show of hands, how many

Kratkim dizanjem ruku, koliko

people in this room still use

ljudi u ovoj prostoriji i dalje koriste

Wang Computers? (Laughter)

Wang računala? (Smijeh)

It's the same thing in war. The British and

Ista je stvar u ratu. Britanci i

the French invented the tank.

Francuzi su izmislili tenk.

The Germans figured out how

Njemci su shvatili kako ga

to use it right, and so what we have to

pravilno koristiti, a ono o čemu moramo

think about for the U.S. is that we are

razmisliti za Sjedinjene države je kako

ahead right now, but you have

predvodimo upravo sada, ali imate

43 other countries out there

43 druge zemlje

working on military robotics, and they

koje rade na vojnoj robotici, a to

include all the interesting countries like

uključuje sve zanimljive zemlje poput

Russia, China, Pakistan, Iran.

Rusije, Kine, Pakistana, Irana.

And this raises a bigger worry for me.

A to stvara veću brigu za mene.

How do we move forward in this revolution

Kako da se krećemo naprijed u ovoj revoluciji

given the state of our manufacturing

uzevši u obzir stanje naše proizvodnje

and the state of our science and

i stanje našeg znanstvenog i

mathematics training in our schools?

matematičkog obrazovanja u našim školama.

Or another way of thinking about this is,

Ili drugačiji način razmišljanja o ovome je,

what does it mean to go to war increasingly

što to znači ići u rat sve više

with soldiers whose hardware is made

sa vojnicima čiji je hardver napravljen

in China and software is written in India?

u Kini a softver napisan u Indiji?

But just as software has gone open-source,

Ali jednako kako je softver prešao u otvoreni kod,

so has warfare.

tako je i ratovanje.

Unlike an aircraft carrier or an atomic bomb,

Za razliku od nosača aviona ili atomske bombe,

you don't need a massive manufacturing

ne trebate krupni proizvodni

system to build robotics. A lot of it is

sustav da gradite robotiku. Velik je dio nje

off the shelf. A lot of it's even do-it-yourself.

sa polica. Velik je dio nje čak uradi-sam.

One of those things you just saw flashed

Jedna od ovih stvari koje ste upravo vidjeli kako vam je proletjela

before you was a raven drone, the handheld

ispred vas je bila bespilotna letjelica Gavran, na

tossed one. For about a thousand dollars,

ručni izbačaj. Za oko tisuću dolara,

you can build one yourself, equivalent to

možete si sagraditi jednu, ekvivalentnu onoj

what the soldiers use in Iraq.

koju vojnici koriste u Iraku.

That raises another wrinkle when it comes

To stvara novu brigu kad dolazi

to war and conflict. Good guys might play

do rata i konflikta. Dobri momci se mogu igrati

around and work on these as hobby kits,

uokolo i raditi na ovima iz hobija,

but so might bad guys.

ali isto tako to mogu i loši momci.

This cross between robotics and things like

Ovo križanje između robotike i stvari poput

terrorism is going to be fascinating

terorizma će biti očaravajuće

and even disturbing,

i čak uznemirujuće

and we've already seen it start.

i već smo ga vidjeli kako počinje.

During the war between Israel, a state,

Tijekom rata između Izraela, države,

and Hezbollah, a non-state actor,

i Hezbolaha, nedržavnog sudionika,

the non-state actor flew

nedržavni sudionik je koristio

four different drones against Israel.

četiri različite bespilotne letjelice protiv Izraela.

There's already a jihadi website

Već postoji džihadistička web stranica

that you can go on and remotely

gdje možete otići i daljinski

detonate an IED in Iraq while sitting

detonirati IED u Iraku dok sjedite

at your home computer.

za svojim kućnim računalom.

And so I think what we're going to see is

Tako da mislim što ćemo vidjeti su

two trends take place with this.

dva trenda unutar ovoga.

First is, you're going to reinforce the power

Prvi je, osnažiti ćete

of individuals against governments,

pojedince protiv vlada,

but then the second is that

ali drugi je kako

we are going to see an expansion

ćemo vidjeti širenje

in the realm of terrorism.

u carstvu terorizma.

The future of it may be a cross between

Njegova budućnost može biti križanac između

al Qaeda 2.0 and the

al Qaede 2.0 i

next generation of the Unabomber.

slijedeće generacije Unabombera.

And another way of thinking about this

A drugi je način razmišljanja o ovome

is the fact that, remember, you don't have

činjenica kako, zapamtite, ne morate

to convince a robot that they're gonna

uvjeriti robota kako će

receive 72 virgins after they die

dobiti 72 djevice nakon što umre

to convince them to blow themselves up.

a da bi ga uvjerili da se raznese.

But the ripple effects of this are going to go

Ali učinci talasanja ovoga će izaći

out into our politics. One of the people that

i u našu politiku. Jedan od ljudi koje

I met with was a former Assistant Secretary of

sam sreo je bio pomoćnik ministra

Defense for Ronald Reagan, and he put it

obrane za Ronalda Reagana, i on je stvari

this way: "I like these systems because

postavio ovako: "Sviđaju mi se ovi sustavi jer

they save American lives, but I worry about

spašavaju američke živote, ali brinem se radi

more marketization of wars,

veće tržišnosti ratova,

more shock-and-awe talk,

uzdizanja šoka i strahopoštovanja u javnom govoru,

to defray discussion of the costs.

da se rasprava udalji od troškova.

People are more likely to support the use

Vjerojatnije je kako će ljudi podržati upotrebu

of force if they view it as costless."

sile ako je vide kao besplatnu."

Robots for me take certain trends

Roboti se po meni uklapaju u određene trendove

that are already in play in our body politic,

koji se već odigravaju u našoj politici,

and maybe take them to

i možda ih dovode do

their logical ending point.

njihove logične krajnje točke.

We don't have a draft. We don't

Nemamo novačenje. Nemamo više

have declarations of war anymore.

niti objave rata.

We don't buy war bonds anymore.

Više ne kupujemo ratne obveznice.

And now we have the fact that we're

A sad imamo činjenicu kako

converting more and more of our American

preokrećemo sve više naših Američkih

soldiers that we would send into harm's

vojnika koje bismo poslali u opasnost

way into machines, and so we may take

u strojeve, i možemo uzeti

those already lowering bars to war

već snižene ljestvice do rata

and drop them to the ground.

i baciti ih na zemlju.

But the future of war is also going to be

Ali budućnost rata će također biti

a YouTube war.

i YouTube rat.

That is, our new technologies don't merely

To jest, naše nove tehnologije ne da tek

remove humans from risk.

miču ljude od rizika.

They also record everything that they see.

One također i snimaju sve što vide.

So they don't just delink the public:

Tako da nije da samo odspajaju javnost:

they reshape its relationship with war.

oni mijenjaju njen odnos s ratom.

There's already several thousand

Već ima više tisuća

video clips of combat footage from Iraq

videoisječaka snimki bitaka iz Iraka

on YouTube right now,

na YouTube-u u ovom trenu,

most of it gathered by drones.

većinom skupljenih bespilotnim letjelicama.

Now, this could be a good thing.

Sad, ovo bi mogla biti dobra stvar.

It could be building connections between

Mogla bi stvoriti vezu između

the home front and the war front

doma i bojišta

as never before.

kao nikad ranije.

But remember, this is taking place

Ali zapamtite, ovo se odvija

in our strange, weird world, and so

u našem čudnom, neobičnom svijetu, pa tako

inevitably the ability to download these

neizbježno mogućnost skidanja tih

video clips to, you know, your iPod

videoklipova na, znate, vaš iPod

or your Zune gives you

ili vaš Zune daje vam

the ability to turn it into entertainment.

mogućnost da to pretvorite u zabavu.

Soldiers have a name for these clips.

Vojnici imaju ime za te klipove.

They call it war porn.

Zovu ih ratni porn.

The typical one that I was sent was

Jedan tipičan koji mi je poslan je bio

an email that had an attachment of

email sa privitkom

video of a Predator strike taking out

snimke napada Predatora koji je uništio

an enemy site. Missile hits,

neprijateljski položaj. Projektil pogađa,

bodies burst into the air with the explosion.

tijela pršte u zrak sa eksplozijom.

It was set to music.

Stavljena je glazba.

It was set to the pop song

Stavljena je pop stvar

"I Just Want To Fly" by Sugar Ray.

"I just Want to Fly" od Sugar Raya.

This ability to watch more

Ova mogućnost da se gleda više

but experience less creates a wrinkle

ali iskusi manje stvara brigu

in the public's relationship with war.

glede odnosa javnosti spram rata.

I think about this with a sports parallel.

Razmišljam o tome u paraleli sa sportom.

It's like the difference between

To je kao razlika između

watching an NBA game, a professional

gledanja NBA utakmice, profesionalne

basketball game on TV, where the athletes

košarkaške utakmice na TV, gdje su sportaši

are tiny figures on the screen, and

mali likovi na ekranu, i

being at that basketball game in person

osobnog bivanja na košarkaškoj utakmici

and realizing what someone seven feet

i shvatiti kako netko od 2,15 m

really does look like.

zbilja izgleda.

But we have to remember,

Ali moramo zapamtiti,

these are just the clips.

ovo su samo snimke.

These are just the ESPN SportsCenter

Ovo je samo ESPN SportsCenterova

version of the game. They lose the context.

verzija utakmice. Gube kontekst.

They lose the strategy.

Gube strategiju.

They lose the humanity. War just

Gube čovječnost. Rat samo

becomes slam dunks and smart bombs.

postaje zakucavanja i pametne bombe.

Now the irony of all this is that

Sad, ironija je u svemu tome

while the future of war may involve

dok budućnost rata može uključiti

more and more machines,

sve više strojeva,

it's our human psychology that's driving

naša je ljudska psihologija koja pokreće

all of this, it's our human failings

sve to, naši ljudski nedostatci

that are leading to these wars.

koji dovode do tih ratova.

So one example of this that has

Tako je jedan primjer toga koji ima

big resonance in the policy realm is

velik odjek u stvarnosti politike je

how this plays out on our very real

kakvu to ulogu igra u našem vrlo stvarnom

war of ideas that we're fighting

ratu ideja koji vodimo

against radical groups.

protiv radikalnih grupa.

What is the message that we think we are

Koja je poruka koju mislimo da

sending with these machines versus what

šaljemo s tim strojevima protiv onog što

is being received in terms of the message.

biva primljeno u pogledu poruke.

So one of the people that I met was

Tako je jedan od ljudi koje sam sreo bio

a senior Bush Administration official,

stariji dužnosnik iz Bushove administracije,

who had this to say about

koji je imao ovo za reći o

our unmanning of war:

našem micanju ljudi iz rata:

"It plays to our strength. The thing that

"To je naš adut. Stvar koja

scares people is our technology."

plaši ljude naša je tehnologija."

But when you go out and meet with people,

Ali kad izađete među ljude,

for example in Lebanon, it's a very

na primjer u Libanonu, vrlo je

different story. One of the people

različita priča. Jedan od ljudi

I met with there was a news editor, and

koje sam sreo je bio taj urednik vijesti, i

we're talking as a drone is flying above him,

bili smo pričali dok je bespilotna letjelica letjela nad njim,

and this is what he had to say.

i ovo je što je imao za reći:

"This is just another sign of the coldhearted

"Ovo je samo još jedan znak bezdušnih

cruel Israelis and Americans,

okrutnih Izraelaca i Amerikanaca,

who are cowards because

koji su kukavice jer

they send out machines to fight us.

šalju strojeve da se bore s nama.

They don't want to fight us like real men,

Ne žele se boriti s nama poput pravih ljudi,

but they're afraid to fight,

već ih je strah boriti se,

so we just have to kill a few of their soldiers

tako da samo trebamo pobiti nekoliko njihovih vojnika

to defeat them."

kako bismo ih pobijedili."

The future of war also is featuring

Budućnost rata također sadrži

a new type of warrior,

novu vrstu ratnika,

and it's actually redefining the experience

i zapravo redefinira iskustvo

of going to war.

odlaska u rat.

You can call this a cubicle warrior.

Možete to nazvati uredski ratnik.

This is what one Predator drone pilot

Ovo je kako je pilot drona Predatora

described of his experience fighting

opisao svoje iskustvo borbe

in the Iraq War while never leaving Nevada.

u Iračkom ratu dok uopće nije napustio Nevadu:

"You're going to war for 12 hours,

"Odlazite u rat na 12 sati,

shooting weapons at targets,

pucate iz oružja po metama,

directing kills on enemy combatants,

usmrćujete neprijateljske borce,

and then you get in the car

a onda sjednete u auto

and you drive home and within 20 minutes,

i odvezete se doma i unutar 20 minuta,

you're sitting at the dinner table

sjedite za stolom za večerom

talking to your kids about their homework."

i pričate sa svojim klincima o njihovoj domaćoj zadaći."

Now, the psychological balancing

Sad, psihološko balansiranje

of those experiences is incredibly tough,

tih iskustava je nevjerojatno teško,

and in fact those drone pilots have

i zapravo ti piloti dronova imaju

higher rates of PTSD than many

višu stopu PTSP-a od brojnih

of the units physically in Iraq.

jedinica fizički u Iraku.

But some have worries that this

Ali neki brinu kako će ta

disconnection will lead to something else,

razvezanost dovesti do nečeg drugog,

that it might make the contemplation of war

kako može učiniti razmišljanje o ratnim

crimes a lot easier when you have

zločinima puno lakšim kad imate

this distance. "It's like a video game,"

to odstojanje."Poput video igre je,"

is what one young pilot described to me

je kako mi je jedan mladi pilot opisao

of taking out enemy troops from afar.

uništavanje neprijateljskih postrojbi iz daljine.

As anyone who's played Grand Theft Auto

Kako svatko tko je igrao Grand Theft Auto

knows, we do things in the video world

zna, činimo stvari u video svijetu

that we wouldn't do face to face.

koje ne bismo činili uživo.

So much of what you're hearing from me

Toliko toga što čujete od mene

is that there's another side

je kako postoji druga strana

to technologic revolutions,

tehnoloških revolucija,

and that it's shaping our present

i kako nam oblikuje sadašnjost

and maybe will shape our future of war.

a možda će oblikovati i našu budućnost rata.

Moore's Law is operative,

Mooreov zakon djeluje,

but so's Murphy's Law.

ali djeluje i Murphyjev.

The fog of war isn't being lifted.

Ratna magla se nije maknula.

The enemy has a vote.

Neprijatelj ima glas.

We're gaining incredible new capabilities,

Stječemo nevjerojatne nove sposobnosti,

but we're also seeing and experiencing

ali također vidimo i proživljavamo

new human dilemmas. Now,

nove ljudske dileme. Sad,

sometimes these are just "oops" moments,

nekad su to samo "ups!" trenuci,

which is what the head of a robotics

što je kako je to šef robotičke

company described it, you just have

kompanije opisao, samo imate

"oops" moments. Well, what are

"ups!" trenutke. Dobro, što su

"oops" moments with robots in war?

"ups!" trenuci s robotima u ratu?

Well, sometimes they're funny. Sometimes,

Pa, ponekad su fora. Ponekad,

they're like that scene from the

nalik su sceni iz

Eddie Murphy movie "Best Defense,"

Eddie Murphyjevog filma "Najbolja obrana",

playing out in reality, where they tested out

koja se odigrava u stvarnosti, gdje su isprobali

a machine gun-armed robot, and during

strojnicom naoružanog robota, i tijekom

the demonstration it started spinning

javnog prikazivanja se počeo vrtjeti

in a circle and pointed its machine gun

u krug i usmjerio svoju strojnicu

at the reviewing stand of VIPs.

u tribinu punu VIP-ovaca.

Fortunately the weapon wasn't loaded

Srećom oružje nije bilo napunjeno

and no one was hurt, but other times

i nitko nije ozlijeđen, ali u drugim prilikama

"oops" moments are tragic,

"ups!" momenti su tragični,

such as last year in South Africa, where

kao prošle godine u Južnoj Africi, gdje

an anti-aircraft cannon had a

je protuzračni top imao

"software glitch," and actually did turn on

"softverski kvar", i zapravo se upalio

and fired, and nine soldiers were killed.

i zapucao i ubio devet vojnika.

We have new wrinkles in the laws of war

Imamo nove brige u ratnim pravilima

and accountability. What do we do

i uračunljivosti. Što činimo

with things like unmanned slaughter?

sa stvarima poput bespilotnog pokolja?

What is unmanned slaughter?

Što je bespilotni pokolj?

We've already had three instances of

Već smo imali tri slučaja

Predator drone strikes where we thought

napada Predatorom gdje smo mislili

we got bin Laden, and it turned out

kako imamo Bin Ladena, a da je ispalo

not to be the case.

kako to nije slučaj.

And this is where we're at right now.

I to je gdje smo upravo sada.

This is not even talking about armed,

Ovo čak i nije razgovor o naoružanim

autonomous systems

autonomnim sustavima

with full authority to use force.

sa punim ovlastima upotrebe sile.

And do not believe that that isn't coming.

A ne vjerujte da to ne dolazi.

During my research I came across

Tijekom mog istraživanja naišao sam na

four different Pentagon projects

četiri različita projekta iz Pentagona

on different aspects of that.

o različitim vidovima toga.

And so you have this question:

I onda imate ovo pitanje:

what does this lead to issues like

čemu to vodi u pitanjima poput

war crimes? Robots are emotionless, so

ratnih zločina? Roboti su bez emocija, pa

they don't get upset if their buddy is killed.

se ne uzrujavaju ako su im drugovi ubijeni.

They don't commit crimes of rage

Ne čine zločine iz bijesa

and revenge.

ili osvete.

But robots are emotionless.

Ali roboti su bez emocija.

They see an 80-year-old grandmother

Vide 80-godišnju baku

in a wheelchair the same way they see

u kolicima na isti način kako vide

a T-80 tank: they're both

i tenk T-80: oboje su

just a series of zeroes and ones.

tek nizovi nula i jedinica.

And so we have this question to figure out:

Pa imamo ovo pitanje za shvatiti:

How do we catch up our 20th century

Kako ćemo sustići naša ratna pravila

laws of war, that are so old right now

20. stoljeća, koja su sada već toliko stara

that they could qualify for Medicare,

da bi se mogla prijaviti za zdravstvenu skrb,

to these 21st century technologies?

sa ovim tehnologijama 21. stoljeća?

And so, in conclusion, I've talked about

I tako, u zaključku, pričao sam o

what seems the future of war,

što se čini budućnošću rata,

but notice that I've only used

ali primijetite da sam samo koristio

real world examples and you've only seen

primjere iz stvarnog svijeta a vi ste vidjeli samo

real world pictures and videos.

slike i filmove iz stvarnog svijeta.

And so this sets a great challenge for

A to tako postavlja veliki izazov

all of us that we have to worry about well

za sve nas o kojem se moramo brinuti

before you have to worry about your

poprilično prije nego brinuti o vašoj

Roomba sucking the life away from you.

Roombi kako siše život iz vas.

Are we going to let the fact that what's

Hoćemo li pustiti činjenicu koja se

unveiling itself right now in war

razotkriva upravo sada u ratu

sounds like science fiction and therefore

da zvuči kao znanstvena fantastika i prema tome

keeps us in denial?

ostati u poricanju?

Are we going to face the reality

Hoćemo li se suočiti sa stvarnošću

of 21st century war?

rata u 21. stoljeću?

Is our generation going to make the same

Hoće li naša generacija napraviti istu

mistake that a past generation did

grešku koju je napravila i prethodna

with atomic weaponry, and not deal with

s atomskim oružjem, i ne pozabaviti se

the issues that surround it until

problemima koji ju okružuju sve dok

Pandora's box is already opened up?

Pandorina kutija ne bude već otvorena?

Now, I could be wrong on this, and

Sad, mogu o ovome biti u krivu, a

one Pentagon robot scientist told me

jedan pentagonski znanstvenik robotičar mi je rekao

that I was. He said, "There's no real

da i jesam. Rekao je: "Nema stvarnih

social, ethical, moral issues when it comes

društvenih, etičkih, moralnih pitanja kad dođe

to robots.

do robota.

That is," he added, "unless the machine

To jest, "dodaje, "osim ako stroj

kills the wrong people repeatedly.

opetovano ne ubija krive ljude.

Then it's just a product recall issue."

Onda je to samo pitanje povlačenja proizvoda."

And so the ending point for this is

Zadnja je točka ovoga

that actually, we can turn to Hollywood.

kako zapravo, možemo se okrenuti Hollywoodu.

A few years ago, Hollywood gathered

Prije nekoliko godina, Hollywood je skupio

all the top characters and created

sve glavne likove i stvorio

a list of the top 100 heroes and

listu glavnih 100 heroja te

top 100 villains of all of Hollywood history,

glavnih 100 zlikovaca holivudske povijesti,

the characters that represented the best

likove koji predstavljaju sve najbolje

and worst of humanity.

i sve najbolje od čovječanstva.

Only one character made it onto both lists:

Samo se jedan lik našao na obje liste:

The Terminator, a robot killing machine.

Terminator, ubojit robotski stroj.

And so that points to the fact that

A to ukazuje na činjenicu kako

our machines can be used

naši strojevi mogu biti korišteni

for both good and evil, but for me

jednako za dobro i za zlo, ali za mene

it points to the fact that there's a duality

to ukazuje na činjenicu kako postoji takva dvojnost

of humans as well.

i ljudi.

This week is a celebration

Ova je tjedan proslava

of our creativity. Our creativity

našeg stvaralaštva. Naše je stvaralaštvo

has taken our species to the stars.

povelo našu vrstu do zvijezda.

Our creativity has created works of arts

Naše je stvaralaštvo stvorilo umjetnička djela

and literature to express our love.

i književnost da nam izrazi ljubav.

And now, we're using our creativity

A sada, koristimo naše stvaralaštvo

in a certain direction, to build fantastic

u određenom smjeru, da napravimo fantastične

machines with incredible capabilities,

strojeve s nevjerojatnim sposobnostima,

maybe even one day

možda čak jednog dana

an entirely new species.

jednu posve novu vrstu.

But one of the main reasons that we're

Ali jedan je od glavnih razloga što

doing that is because of our drive

to činimo naš nagon

to destroy each other, and so the question

da uništimo jedni druge, tako da je pitanje

we all should ask:

koje bismo se svi trebali zapitati:

is it our machines, or is it us

Jesu li naši strojevi, ili smo mi

that's wired for war?

oni koji su predodređeni za rat?

Thank you. (Applause)

Hvala vam. (Pljesak)