Military robots and the future of war | P.W. Singer

233,615 views ・ 2009-04-03

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Traducător: Aura Raducan Corector: Ruxandra Taleanu
00:13
I thought I'd begin with a scene of war.
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M-am gândit să încep cu o scenă de război.
00:15
There was little to warn of the danger ahead.
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Nimic nu anunța pericolul iminent.
00:17
The Iraqi insurgent had placed the IED,
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Insurgentul irakian plasase
00:19
an Improvised Explosive Device,
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bomba artizanală
00:22
along the side of the road with great care.
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la marginea șoselei, cu mare grijă.
00:24
By 2006, there were more than 2,500
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Până în 2006 aveau loc mai mult de 2.500
00:28
of these attacks every single month,
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de astfel de atacuri, lunar,
00:31
and they were the leading cause of
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ele fiind cauza principală a
00:33
casualties among American soldiers
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victimelor din rândul soldaților americani
00:35
and Iraqi civilians.
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și a civililor irakieni.
00:37
The team that was hunting for this IED
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Echipa care căuta această bombă
00:39
is called an EOD team—
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era o echipă IDE -
00:41
Explosives Ordinance Disposal—and
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(Înlăturarea Dispozitivelor Explozive) -
00:43
they're the pointy end of the spear in the
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ei sunt cei aflați în avangarda
00:45
American effort to suppress these roadside bombs.
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efortului american de a înlătura acest tip de bombă.
00:48
Each EOD team goes out on about
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Fiecare echipă IDE răspunde la circa
00:50
600 of these bomb calls every year,
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600 de apeluri cu bombă pe an,
00:52
defusing about two bombs a day.
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dezamorsând două bombe pe zi.
00:55
Perhaps the best sign of how valuable they
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Valoarea acestor echipe în război
00:57
are to the war effort, is that
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e demonstrată de faptul că
00:59
the Iraqi insurgents put a $50,000 bounty
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insurgenții irakieni oferă o recompensă de $50.000
01:01
on the head of a single EOD soldier.
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pe capul unui soldat din echipa IDE.
01:04
Unfortunately, this particular call
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Din păcate, această misiune
01:06
would not end well.
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nu s-a încheiat cu bine.
01:08
By the time the soldier advanced close
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Până ce soldatul să se apropie destul
01:10
enough to see the telltale wires
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încât să vadă firele bombei,
01:12
of the bomb, it exploded in a wave of flame.
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aceasta a explodat într-un val de flăcări.
01:15
Now, depending how close you are
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Depinzând de distanță
01:17
and how much explosive has been packed
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și de cantitatea de explozibil conţinută de bombă
01:19
into that bomb, it can cause death
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aceasta poate cauza moarte
01:21
or injury. You have to be as far as
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sau leziuni. Trebuie să fii la cel puțin
01:23
50 yards away to escape that.
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45 de metri depărtare pentru a scăpa.
01:25
The blast is so strong it can even break
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Forța exploziei e atât de mare încât îți poate rupe
01:27
your limbs, even if you're not hit.
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membrele chiar în absența impactului.
01:29
That soldier had been on top of the bomb.
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Acel soldat era deasupra bombei.
01:31
And so when the rest of the team advanced
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Când restul echipei a avansat
01:34
they found little left. And that night the unit's
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nu au găsit prea multe rămășițe. În acea noapte,
01:36
commander did a sad duty, and he wrote
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comandantul a avut sarcina dificilă de a scrie
01:38
a condolence letter back to the United
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o scrisoare de condoleanțe în Statele Unite
01:40
States, and he talked about how hard the
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și a vorbit despre cât de dureroasă
01:42
loss had been on his unit, about the fact
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a fost pierderea pentru unitatea lui,
01:44
that they had lost their bravest soldier,
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că au pierdut cel mai curajos soldat al lor,
01:46
a soldier who had saved their lives
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un soldat care le salvase viețile
01:48
many a time.
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de nenumărate ori.
01:50
And he apologized
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Apoi comandatul a cerut iertare
01:52
for not being able to bring them home.
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pentru că nu putea să-l aducă acasă.
01:54
But then he talked up the silver lining
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Dar apoi a vorbit despre lecția
01:56
that he took away from the loss.
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primită în urma pierderii.
01:58
"At least," as he wrote, "when a robot dies,
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„Cel puțin, când un robot moare,
02:00
you don't have to write a letter
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nu trebuie să scrii o scrisoare
02:02
to its mother."
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mamei sale”.
02:04
That scene sounds like science fiction,
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Scena pare desprinsă dintr-un SF,
02:06
but is battlefield reality already.
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dar e realitatea câmpului de luptă.
02:08
The soldier in that case
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În acel caz, soldatul
02:11
was a 42-pound robot called a PackBot.
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era un robot de 19 kg numit PackBot.
02:14
The chief's letter went, not to some
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Scrisoarea nu era destinată
02:17
farmhouse in Iowa like you see
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vreunei ferme din Iowa cum vedem
02:19
in the old war movies, but went to
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în filmele vechi de război, ci companiei
02:22
the iRobot Company, which is
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iRobot,
02:24
named after the Asimov novel
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numită după romanul lui Asimov
02:27
and the not-so-great Will Smith movie,
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şi după mai puţin reuşitul film cu Will Smith,
02:29
and... um... (Laughter)...
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şi... ăăă... (Râsete)...
02:31
if you remember that
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Dacă vă amintiţi,
02:33
in that fictional world, robots started out
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în literatură, roboţii au început prin a îndeplini
02:35
carrying out mundane chores, and then
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sarcini obișnuite și abia apoi
02:37
they started taking on life-and-death decisions.
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au luat decizii de viață și de moarte.
02:39
That's a reality we face today.
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Asta e realitatea de azi.
02:41
What we're going to do is actually just
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Vom arăta o serie
02:43
flash a series of photos behind me that
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de fotografii în spatele meu
02:45
show you the reality of robots used in war
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despre roboții folosiți în războaie
02:48
right now or already at the prototype stage.
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acum sau care sunt în stadiul de prototip -
02:50
It's just to give you a taste.
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ca să vă faceți o idee.
02:53
Another way of putting it is you're not
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Nu veți vedea nimic
02:55
going to see anything that's powered
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operat de
02:57
by Vulcan technology, or teenage
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tehnologia Vulcan sau
02:59
wizard hormones or anything like that.
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hormoni adolescentini sau orice altceva.
03:01
This is all real. So why don't we
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E real. Să-i dăm drumul
03:03
go ahead and start those pictures.
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și să vedem fotografiile.
03:05
Something big is going on in war today,
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Ceva important are loc în război azi
03:07
and maybe even the history of humanity
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și posibil în istoria umanității.
03:09
itself. The U.S. military went into Iraq with
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Trupele SUA au mers în Irak cu
03:12
a handful of drones in the air.
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câteva drone.
03:14
We now have 5,300.
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Acum avem 5.300.
03:17
We went in with zero unmanned ground
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Nu aveam niciun sistem operat automat.
03:19
systems. We now have 12,000.
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Acum avem 12.000.
03:23
And the tech term "killer application"
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Termenul de „aplicație mortală”
03:25
takes on new meaning in this space.
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are alt sens în acest context.
03:28
And we need to remember that we're
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Să ținem minte că
03:30
talking about the Model T Fords,
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vorbim de modelul Ford T,
03:32
the Wright Flyers, compared
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o variantă depășită
03:34
to what's coming soon.
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în comparație cu cele din viitor.
03:36
That's where we're at right now.
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Aici ne aflăm acum.
03:38
One of the people that I recently met with
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Am făcut cunoștință recent cu
03:40
was an Air Force three-star general, and he
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un general al Forțelor Aeriene triplu decorat, care
03:42
said basically, where we're headed very
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a spus că în curând
03:44
soon is tens of thousands of robots
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mii de roboți
03:46
operating in our conflicts, and these
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vor lua parte la conflicte.
03:48
numbers matter, because we're not just
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Aceste cifre contează fiindcă nu vorbim doar
03:50
talking about tens of thousands of today's
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de zeci de mii de roboți de azi,
03:52
robots, but tens of thousands of these
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ci despre zeci de mii de prototipuri
03:54
prototypes and tomorrow's robots, because
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și roboți de mâine, fiindcă
03:56
of course, one of the things that's operating
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una dintre regulile valabile
03:59
in technology is Moore's Law,
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în tehnologie e legea lui Moore -
04:01
that you can pack in more and more
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poți introduce tot mai multă
04:03
computing power into those robots, and so
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putere de procesare în roboți, astfel încât
04:05
flash forward around 25 years,
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în 25 de ani,
04:07
if Moore's Law holds true,
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dacă legea lui Moore e valabilă,
04:09
those robots will be close to a billion times
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acești roboți vor avea de un miliard de ori
04:12
more powerful in their computing than today.
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mai multă putere de procesare decât azi.
04:15
And so what that means is the kind of
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Asta înseamnă că lucrurile
04:17
things that we used to only talk about at
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dezbătute doar la convenții
04:19
science fiction conventions like Comic-Con
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de SF, gen Comic-Con,
04:21
have to be talked about in the halls
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vor fi discutate pe coridoarele
04:23
of power and places like the Pentagon.
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unor locuri precum Pentagonul.
04:25
A robots revolution is upon us.
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Revoluția roboților e iminentă.
04:28
Now, I need to be clear here.
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Vreau să mă înțelegeți bine.
04:30
I'm not talking about a revolution where you
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Nu vorbesc despre o revoluție
04:32
have to worry about the Governor of
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în care guvernatorul
04:34
California showing up at your door,
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Californiei apare la ușa voastră,
04:36
a la the Terminator. (Laughter)
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à la Terminator. (Râsete)
04:38
When historians look at this period, they're
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Când istoricii vor studia această perioadă
04:40
going to conclude that we're in a different
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vor concluziona ca experimentăm o altfel
04:42
type of revolution: a revolution in war,
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de revoluție: o revoluție a războiului,
04:44
like the invention of the atomic bomb.
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de magnitudinea inventării bombei atomice.
04:46
But it may be even bigger than that,
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Dar s-ar putea să fie și mai măreață,
04:48
because our unmanned systems don't just
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fiidncă sistemele operate automat nu
04:50
affect the "how" of war-fighting,
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influențează desfășurarea războaielor
04:52
they affect the "who" of fighting
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ci și pe combatanți
04:54
at its most fundamental level.
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la un nivel profund.
04:56
That is, every previous revolution in war, be
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Fiecare revoluție militară din trecut, fie că e vorba
04:58
it the machine gun, be it the atomic bomb,
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de apariția mitralierei sau a bombei atomice
05:00
was about a system that either shot faster,
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aducea ceva care trăgea mai repede,
05:03
went further, had a bigger boom.
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mergea mai departe sau exploda mai tare.
05:06
That's certainly the case with robotics, but
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Așa e și în robotică, dar ea schimbă
05:09
they also change the experience of the warrior
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și experiența războinicului,
05:12
and even the very identity of the warrior.
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și identitatea acestuia.
05:15
Another way of putting this is that
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Altfel spus,
05:18
mankind's 5,000-year-old monopoly
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monopolul de 5000 de ani al omenirii
05:20
on the fighting of war is breaking down
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asupra războiului dispare
05:23
in our very lifetime. I've spent
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sub ochii noștri.
05:25
the last several years going around
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În ultimii ani, i-am întâlnit
05:27
meeting with all the players in this field,
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pe toți actorii din domeniu:
05:29
from the robot scientists to the science
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oamenii de știință din robotică,
05:31
fiction authors who inspired them to the
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autorii de SF care i-au inspirat,
05:33
19-year-old drone pilots who are fighting
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până la piloții de 19 ani ai dronelor
05:35
from Nevada, to the four-star generals
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ce luptă din Nevada și generalii de 4 stele
05:37
who command them, to even the Iraqi
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care-i comandă, precum și
05:39
insurgents who they are targeting and what
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pe insurgenții irakieni care erau ţinta și
05:41
they think about our systems, and
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care îmi spuneau ce cred despre sistemele noastre.
05:43
what I found interesting is not just
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Mi se pare interesant
05:45
their stories, but how their experiences
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cum experiențele lor
05:47
point to these ripple effects that are going
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au creat acest efect de domino
05:49
outwards in our society, in our law
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în societatea noastră, în legislație,
05:51
and our ethics, etc. And so what I'd like
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etică etc.
05:53
to do with my remaining time is basically
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În timpul rămas, vreau să ilustrez
05:55
flesh out a couple of these.
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o parte din aceste efecte.
05:57
So the first is that the future of war,
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În primul rând, viitorul războiului,
05:59
even a robotics one, is not going to be
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fie și unul robotic, nu va fi
06:01
purely an American one.
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unul eminamente american.
06:03
The U.S. is currently ahead in military
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În prezent, SUA conduc
06:05
robotics right now, but we know that in
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în robotică militară, dar știm că
06:07
technology there's no such thing as
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în tehnologie nu există
06:09
a permanent first move or advantage.
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avantajul primei mutări.
06:12
In a quick show of hands, how many
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Să ridice mâna
06:14
people in this room still use
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cei care mai folosesc
06:16
Wang Computers? (Laughter)
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calculatoarele Wang? (Râsete)
06:18
It's the same thing in war. The British and
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Așa e și în război. Britanicii
06:20
the French invented the tank.
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și francezii au inventat tancul.
06:23
The Germans figured out how
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Germanii și-au dat seama
06:25
to use it right, and so what we have to
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cum să îl folosească eficient.
06:27
think about for the U.S. is that we are
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SUA dețin deocamdată avantajul,
06:29
ahead right now, but you have
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dar există alte
06:31
43 other countries out there
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43 de țări
06:33
working on military robotics, and they
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care dezvoltă robotică militară,
06:35
include all the interesting countries like
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inclusiv țări „interesante” precum
06:37
Russia, China, Pakistan, Iran.
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Rusia, China, Pakistan, Iran.
06:40
And this raises a bigger worry for me.
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Tocmai asta mă îngrijorează.
06:43
How do we move forward in this revolution
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Cum să avansăm în această revoluţie
06:45
given the state of our manufacturing
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dat fiind nivelul producției
06:47
and the state of our science and
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și pregătirea științifică
06:49
mathematics training in our schools?
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și matematică din școlile noastre?
06:51
Or another way of thinking about this is,
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Altfel spus,
06:53
what does it mean to go to war increasingly
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ce înseamnă să mergi la război
06:55
with soldiers whose hardware is made
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cu soldați al căror hardware e făcut
06:58
in China and software is written in India?
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în China, iar softul e scris în India?
07:03
But just as software has gone open-source,
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Tot așa cum softurile sunt open-source,
07:06
so has warfare.
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așa e și războiul.
07:08
Unlike an aircraft carrier or an atomic bomb,
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Spre deosebire de un portavion sau o bombă atomică,
07:11
you don't need a massive manufacturing
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nu ai nevoie de sisteme de producție mari
07:13
system to build robotics. A lot of it is
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ca să construiești roboți. Materialele
07:15
off the shelf. A lot of it's even do-it-yourself.
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pot fi cumpărate și asamblate de oricine.
07:17
One of those things you just saw flashed
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Tocmai ați văzut pe ecran
07:19
before you was a raven drone, the handheld
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o dronă Raven, ce poate fi lansată
07:21
tossed one. For about a thousand dollars,
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cu mâna. Pentru o mie de dolari,
07:23
you can build one yourself, equivalent to
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poți să construiești una,
07:25
what the soldiers use in Iraq.
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similară celor folosite în Irak.
07:27
That raises another wrinkle when it comes
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Asta ridică altă problemă când vine vorba de război și conflict.
07:29
to war and conflict. Good guys might play
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Băieții buni se pot juca cu dronele,
07:31
around and work on these as hobby kits,
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ca hobby,
07:33
but so might bad guys.
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dar la fel pot face și băieții răi.
07:35
This cross between robotics and things like
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Legătura din robotică și terorism
07:37
terrorism is going to be fascinating
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va fi fascinantă,
07:39
and even disturbing,
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dar mai ales îngrijorătoare.
07:41
and we've already seen it start.
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Am văzut deja ce se întâmplă.
07:43
During the war between Israel, a state,
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În războiul dintre Israel, un stat
07:45
and Hezbollah, a non-state actor,
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și Hezbollah, un actor nestatal,
07:48
the non-state actor flew
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al doilea a trimis
07:50
four different drones against Israel.
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4 drone în Israel.
07:52
There's already a jihadi website
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Există un site fundamentalist,
07:54
that you can go on and remotely
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de unde poți detona
07:56
detonate an IED in Iraq while sitting
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o bombă artizanală în Irak,
07:58
at your home computer.
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din fața propriului PC.
08:00
And so I think what we're going to see is
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Cred că vor apărea
08:02
two trends take place with this.
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două tendințe.
08:04
First is, you're going to reinforce the power
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Prima: puterea indivizilor
08:06
of individuals against governments,
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4000
asupra guvernelor va crește.
08:10
but then the second is that
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Dar vom asista
08:12
we are going to see an expansion
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la o exacerbare
08:14
in the realm of terrorism.
218
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a terorismului.
08:16
The future of it may be a cross between
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Terorismul viitorului poate fi
08:18
al Qaeda 2.0 and the
220
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2000
o combinație dintre Al-Qaeda 2.0
08:20
next generation of the Unabomber.
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și viitoarea generație Unabomber.
08:22
And another way of thinking about this
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Să reținem că
08:24
is the fact that, remember, you don't have
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nu trebuie
08:26
to convince a robot that they're gonna
224
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să convingi un robot
08:28
receive 72 virgins after they die
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că va primi 72 de virgine după ce moare
08:31
to convince them to blow themselves up.
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ca să se arunce în aer.
08:34
But the ripple effects of this are going to go
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Efectele se vor vedea
08:36
out into our politics. One of the people that
228
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2000
și în politică. M-am întâlnit
08:38
I met with was a former Assistant Secretary of
229
518160
2000
cu un fost secretar adjunct de la Apărare
08:40
Defense for Ronald Reagan, and he put it
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520160
2000
de pe vremea lui Reagan, care mi-a spus:
08:42
this way: "I like these systems because
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522160
2000
"Îmi plac sistemele astea fiindcă
08:44
they save American lives, but I worry about
232
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2000
salvează viețile soldaților, dar mă îngrijorează
08:46
more marketization of wars,
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comercializarea războaielor,
08:48
more shock-and-awe talk,
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3000
discursurile care produc frică
08:51
to defray discussion of the costs.
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2000
pentru a evita discuțiile despre costuri.
08:53
People are more likely to support the use
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Oamenii tind să susțină folosirea
08:55
of force if they view it as costless."
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forței dacă o percep ca fiind gratuită.”
08:58
Robots for me take certain trends
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Roboții ilustrează câteva tendințe
09:00
that are already in play in our body politic,
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540160
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deja vizibile printre politicieni,
09:03
and maybe take them to
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2000
și poate vor pune capăt
09:05
their logical ending point.
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2000
acestor tendințe.
09:07
We don't have a draft. We don't
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Nu mai recrutăm soldați.
09:09
have declarations of war anymore.
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3000
Nu mai există declarații de război.
09:12
We don't buy war bonds anymore.
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Nu mai cumpărăm obligațiuni de război.
09:14
And now we have the fact that we're
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2000
Și acum,
09:16
converting more and more of our American
246
556160
2000
din ce în ce mai mulți soldați americani
09:18
soldiers that we would send into harm's
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care ar fi trimiși să înfrunte pericolul
09:20
way into machines, and so we may take
248
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3000
sunt înlocuiți de mașini.
09:23
those already lowering bars to war
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3000
Am putea să luăm armele
09:26
and drop them to the ground.
250
566160
3000
și să le punem jos.
09:29
But the future of war is also going to be
251
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2000
Dar războiul viitorului va fi
09:31
a YouTube war.
252
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2000
unul pe Youtube.
09:33
That is, our new technologies don't merely
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2000
Noile tehnologii nu doar că
09:35
remove humans from risk.
254
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2000
nu mai pun oamenii în pericol,
09:37
They also record everything that they see.
255
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3000
ele înregistrează tot ce văd.
09:40
So they don't just delink the public:
256
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3000
Nu numai că îndepărtează publicul,
09:43
they reshape its relationship with war.
257
583160
3000
ele redefinesc relația lui cu războiul.
09:46
There's already several thousand
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586160
2000
Există deja câteva mii
09:48
video clips of combat footage from Iraq
259
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2000
de înregistrări ale luptelor din Irak
09:50
on YouTube right now,
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2000
disponibile pe YouTube,
09:52
most of it gathered by drones.
261
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2000
majoritatea strânse de drone.
09:54
Now, this could be a good thing.
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2000
Ar putea fi un lucru bun.
09:56
It could be building connections between
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596160
2000
S-ar putea crea o legătură
09:58
the home front and the war front
264
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2000
cu totul nouă
10:00
as never before.
265
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2000
între acasă și front.
10:02
But remember, this is taking place
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2000
Dar totul are loc
10:04
in our strange, weird world, and so
267
604160
3000
în lumea noastră bizară
10:07
inevitably the ability to download these
268
607160
2000
și posibilitatea de a descărca
10:09
video clips to, you know, your iPod
269
609160
2000
videoclipurile pe iPod
10:11
or your Zune gives you
270
611160
3000
sau pe Zune le transformă
10:14
the ability to turn it into entertainment.
271
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4000
într-o formă de amuzament.
10:18
Soldiers have a name for these clips.
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2000
Soldații numesc aceste imagini
10:20
They call it war porn.
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2000
„pornografie de război”.
10:22
The typical one that I was sent was
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622160
2000
Am primit un videoclip tipic
10:24
an email that had an attachment of
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624160
2000
ataşat unui email -
10:26
video of a Predator strike taking out
276
626160
2000
un videoclip cu o dronă Predator atacând
10:28
an enemy site. Missile hits,
277
628160
2000
inamicul. Rachete explodează,
10:30
bodies burst into the air with the explosion.
278
630160
3000
bucăți din corp zboară în aer.
10:33
It was set to music.
279
633160
2000
Totul pe un fond sonor,
10:35
It was set to the pop song
280
635160
2000
era un cântec pop,
10:37
"I Just Want To Fly" by Sugar Ray.
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3000
„I Just Want To Fly” - „Vreau doar să zbor”, al lui Sugar Ray.
10:40
This ability to watch more
282
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3000
Posibilitatea de a vedea mai mult
10:43
but experience less creates a wrinkle
283
643160
3000
și a experimenta mai puțin
10:46
in the public's relationship with war.
284
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2000
denaturează percepția asupra războiului.
10:48
I think about this with a sports parallel.
285
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2000
Să facem o paralelă cu sportul.
10:50
It's like the difference between
286
650160
3000
E ca și cum vezi
10:53
watching an NBA game, a professional
287
653160
3000
un meci profesionist de baschet
10:56
basketball game on TV, where the athletes
288
656160
3000
din NBA la televizor, unde atleții
10:59
are tiny figures on the screen, and
289
659160
2000
sunt nişte siluete mici pe ecran,
11:01
being at that basketball game in person
290
661160
3000
dar dacă urmărești meciul din sală
11:04
and realizing what someone seven feet
291
664160
2000
îți dai seama cum arată
11:06
really does look like.
292
666160
2000
cineva de 2 metri.
11:08
But we have to remember,
293
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2000
Trebuie să ne amintim
11:10
these are just the clips.
294
670160
2000
că astea sunt doar niște videoclipuri.
11:12
These are just the ESPN SportsCenter
295
672160
2000
E versiunea ESPN SportsCentre
11:14
version of the game. They lose the context.
296
674160
2000
a jocului. Contextul se pierde.
11:16
They lose the strategy.
297
676160
2000
Strategia dispare.
11:18
They lose the humanity. War just
298
678160
2000
Latura umană dispare.
11:20
becomes slam dunks and smart bombs.
299
680160
3000
Războiul se rezumă la marcarea unui gol și bombe inteligente.
11:23
Now the irony of all this is that
300
683160
3000
Ironia e că
11:26
while the future of war may involve
301
686160
2000
în timp ce războiul poate implica
11:28
more and more machines,
302
688160
2000
din ce în ce mai multe mașini,
11:30
it's our human psychology that's driving
303
690160
2000
psihologia umană e cea care
11:32
all of this, it's our human failings
304
692160
2000
îl declașează, eșecurile oamenilor
11:34
that are leading to these wars.
305
694160
2000
duc la aceste războaie.
11:36
So one example of this that has
306
696160
2000
Un exemplu care
11:38
big resonance in the policy realm is
307
698160
2000
rezonează puternic în politică
11:40
how this plays out on our very real
308
700160
2000
e modul în care ne conducem
11:42
war of ideas that we're fighting
309
702160
2000
războiul ideologic
11:44
against radical groups.
310
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2000
împotriva grupărilor fundamentaliste.
11:46
What is the message that we think we are
311
706160
2000
Ce mesaj transmitem când
11:48
sending with these machines versus what
312
708160
2000
trimitem aceste mașini versus
11:50
is being received in terms of the message.
313
710160
3000
ce mesaj e primit?
11:53
So one of the people that I met was
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2000
M-am întâlnit cu un fost
11:55
a senior Bush Administration official,
315
715160
2000
oficial al administrației Bush
11:57
who had this to say about
316
717160
2000
care mi-a spus asta
11:59
our unmanning of war:
317
719160
2000
despre automatizarea războiului:
12:01
"It plays to our strength. The thing that
318
721160
2000
„E un punct forte pentru noi. Oamenii
12:03
scares people is our technology."
319
723160
2000
se sperie de tehnologia noastră.”
12:05
But when you go out and meet with people,
320
725160
2000
Dar când întâlnești oamenii,
12:07
for example in Lebanon, it's a very
321
727160
2000
în Liban de exemplu, e o altă poveste.
12:09
different story. One of the people
322
729160
2000
Unul dintre oamenii
12:11
I met with there was a news editor, and
323
731160
2000
cu care m-am întâlnit era redactor
12:13
we're talking as a drone is flying above him,
324
733160
2000
și discutam, în timp ce o dronă zbura deasupra.
12:15
and this is what he had to say.
325
735160
2002
Mi-a zis:
12:17
"This is just another sign of the coldhearted
326
737162
1998
12:19
cruel Israelis and Americans,
327
739160
3006
12:22
who are cowards because
328
742166
1992
12:24
they send out machines to fight us.
329
744158
2006
12:26
They don't want to fight us like real men,
330
746164
1992
12:28
but they're afraid to fight,
331
748156
2007
12:30
so we just have to kill a few of their soldiers
332
750163
1991
12:32
to defeat them."
333
752154
3005
12:35
The future of war also is featuring
334
755159
2007
12:37
a new type of warrior,
335
757166
1977
12:39
and it's actually redefining the experience
336
759159
3006
12:42
of going to war.
337
762165
1998
12:44
You can call this a cubicle warrior.
338
764163
1976
12:46
This is what one Predator drone pilot
339
766154
2007
12:48
described of his experience fighting
340
768161
2007
12:50
in the Iraq War while never leaving Nevada.
341
770168
2989
12:53
"You're going to war for 12 hours,
342
773157
2005
12:55
shooting weapons at targets,
343
775162
1991
12:57
directing kills on enemy combatants,
344
777168
2991
13:00
and then you get in the car
345
780159
2006
13:02
and you drive home and within 20 minutes,
346
782165
1982
13:04
you're sitting at the dinner table
347
784163
1991
13:06
talking to your kids about their homework."
348
786169
1993
13:08
Now, the psychological balancing
349
788162
1991
13:10
of those experiences is incredibly tough,
350
790168
1993
13:12
and in fact those drone pilots have
351
792161
2992
13:15
higher rates of PTSD than many
352
795153
2008
13:17
of the units physically in Iraq.
353
797161
3005
13:20
But some have worries that this
354
800166
1992
13:22
disconnection will lead to something else,
355
802158
1994
13:24
that it might make the contemplation of war
356
804167
1998
13:26
crimes a lot easier when you have
357
806165
2005
13:28
this distance. "It's like a video game,"
358
808170
1999
13:30
is what one young pilot described to me
359
810169
1999
13:32
of taking out enemy troops from afar.
360
812168
1960
13:34
As anyone who's played Grand Theft Auto
361
814158
2995
13:37
knows, we do things in the video world
362
817168
3000
13:40
that we wouldn't do face to face.
363
820168
2996
13:43
So much of what you're hearing from me
364
823164
1998
13:45
is that there's another side
365
825162
1993
13:47
to technologic revolutions,
366
827155
2008
13:49
and that it's shaping our present
367
829163
1994
13:51
and maybe will shape our future of war.
368
831157
3001
13:54
Moore's Law is operative,
369
834158
2001
13:56
but so's Murphy's Law.
370
836159
1998
13:58
The fog of war isn't being lifted.
371
838157
2005
14:00
The enemy has a vote.
372
840162
2010
14:02
We're gaining incredible new capabilities,
373
842172
1989
14:04
but we're also seeing and experiencing
374
844161
2006
14:06
new human dilemmas. Now,
375
846167
2000
14:08
sometimes these are just "oops" moments,
376
848167
1999
14:10
which is what the head of a robotics
377
850166
1992
14:12
company described it, you just have
378
852158
2011
14:14
"oops" moments. Well, what are
379
854169
2000
14:16
"oops" moments with robots in war?
380
856169
1996
14:18
Well, sometimes they're funny. Sometimes,
381
858165
2001
14:20
they're like that scene from the
382
860166
2002
14:22
Eddie Murphy movie "Best Defense,"
383
862168
2001
14:24
playing out in reality, where they tested out
384
864169
2001
14:26
a machine gun-armed robot, and during
385
866170
1988
14:28
the demonstration it started spinning
386
868158
2001
14:30
in a circle and pointed its machine gun
387
870159
3009
14:33
at the reviewing stand of VIPs.
388
873168
2995
14:36
Fortunately the weapon wasn't loaded
389
876163
1993
14:38
and no one was hurt, but other times
390
878156
2010
14:40
"oops" moments are tragic,
391
880166
1992
14:42
such as last year in South Africa, where
392
882158
2002
14:44
an anti-aircraft cannon had a
393
884160
2999
14:47
"software glitch," and actually did turn on
394
887159
2999
14:50
and fired, and nine soldiers were killed.
395
890158
3004
14:53
We have new wrinkles in the laws of war
396
893162
2997
14:56
and accountability. What do we do
397
896159
1997
14:58
with things like unmanned slaughter?
398
898156
2010
15:00
What is unmanned slaughter?
399
900166
1998
15:02
We've already had three instances of
400
902164
2000
15:04
Predator drone strikes where we thought
401
904164
2000
15:06
we got bin Laden, and it turned out
402
906164
1994
15:08
not to be the case.
403
908158
2002
15:10
And this is where we're at right now.
404
910160
2008
15:12
This is not even talking about armed,
405
912168
2000
15:14
autonomous systems
406
914168
1989
15:16
with full authority to use force.
407
916157
2013
15:18
And do not believe that that isn't coming.
408
918170
1994
15:20
During my research I came across
409
920164
2007
15:22
four different Pentagon projects
410
922171
1985
15:24
on different aspects of that.
411
924156
2012
15:26
And so you have this question:
412
926168
2002
15:28
what does this lead to issues like
413
928170
1993
15:30
war crimes? Robots are emotionless, so
414
930163
1992
15:32
they don't get upset if their buddy is killed.
415
932155
3012
15:35
They don't commit crimes of rage
416
935167
1994
15:37
and revenge.
417
937161
2007
15:39
But robots are emotionless.
418
939168
2997
15:42
They see an 80-year-old grandmother
419
942165
1999
15:44
in a wheelchair the same way they see
420
944164
2000
15:46
a T-80 tank: they're both
421
946164
3002
15:49
just a series of zeroes and ones.
422
949166
2993
15:52
And so we have this question to figure out:
423
952159
3003
15:55
How do we catch up our 20th century
424
955162
2003
15:57
laws of war, that are so old right now
425
957165
1989
15:59
that they could qualify for Medicare,
426
959154
3008
16:02
to these 21st century technologies?
427
962162
3008
16:05
And so, in conclusion, I've talked about
428
965170
2987
16:08
what seems the future of war,
429
968157
3011
16:11
but notice that I've only used
430
971168
1990
16:13
real world examples and you've only seen
431
973158
2012
16:15
real world pictures and videos.
432
975170
2001
16:17
And so this sets a great challenge for
433
977171
2000
16:19
all of us that we have to worry about well
434
979171
1986
16:21
before you have to worry about your
435
981157
2009
16:23
Roomba sucking the life away from you.
436
983166
2001
16:25
Are we going to let the fact that what's
437
985167
1999
16:27
unveiling itself right now in war
438
987166
3000
16:30
sounds like science fiction and therefore
439
990166
2991
16:33
keeps us in denial?
440
993157
2005
16:35
Are we going to face the reality
441
995162
2004
16:37
of 21st century war?
442
997166
1993
16:39
Is our generation going to make the same
443
999159
2001
16:41
mistake that a past generation did
444
1001160
2009
16:43
with atomic weaponry, and not deal with
445
1003169
1998
16:45
the issues that surround it until
446
1005167
1995
16:47
Pandora's box is already opened up?
447
1007162
2007
16:49
Now, I could be wrong on this, and
448
1009169
1998
16:51
one Pentagon robot scientist told me
449
1011167
2004
16:53
that I was. He said, "There's no real
450
1013171
1994
16:55
social, ethical, moral issues when it comes
451
1015165
1995
16:57
to robots.
452
1017160
1998
16:59
That is," he added, "unless the machine
453
1019158
2001
17:01
kills the wrong people repeatedly.
454
1021159
3010
17:04
Then it's just a product recall issue."
455
1024169
2989
17:07
And so the ending point for this is
456
1027158
3011
17:10
that actually, we can turn to Hollywood.
457
1030169
5002
17:15
A few years ago, Hollywood gathered
458
1035171
1996
17:17
all the top characters and created
459
1037167
3006
17:20
a list of the top 100 heroes and
460
1040173
1997
17:22
top 100 villains of all of Hollywood history,
461
1042170
2990
17:25
the characters that represented the best
462
1045160
2006
17:27
and worst of humanity.
463
1047166
1992
17:29
Only one character made it onto both lists:
464
1049158
4015
17:33
The Terminator, a robot killing machine.
465
1053173
2996
17:36
And so that points to the fact that
466
1056169
1988
17:38
our machines can be used
467
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2013
17:40
for both good and evil, but for me
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1999
17:42
it points to the fact that there's a duality
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1996
17:44
of humans as well.
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3000
17:47
This week is a celebration
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1998
17:49
of our creativity. Our creativity
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1999
17:51
has taken our species to the stars.
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1998
17:53
Our creativity has created works of arts
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2007
17:55
and literature to express our love.
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2996
17:58
And now, we're using our creativity
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1998
18:00
in a certain direction, to build fantastic
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1993
18:02
machines with incredible capabilities,
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2987
18:05
maybe even one day
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2009
18:07
an entirely new species.
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2997
18:10
But one of the main reasons that we're
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2005
18:12
doing that is because of our drive
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1998
18:14
to destroy each other, and so the question
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3000
18:17
we all should ask:
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1994
18:19
is it our machines, or is it us
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2000
18:21
that's wired for war?
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2007
18:23
Thank you. (Applause)
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