Ray Kurzweil: A university for the coming singularity

87,328 views ・ 2009-06-02

TED


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翻译人员: Chaoran Yu 校对人员: Yvonne Fu
00:13
Information technology grows in an exponential manner.
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信息技术正以指数幅度发展。
00:16
It's not linear. And our intuition is linear.
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它并不是线性的。而对我们来说,直觉却是线性的。
00:20
When we walked through the savanna a thousand years ago
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千年前,当我们的祖先经过热带草原时,
00:22
we made linear predictions where that animal would be,
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他们常常会线性预测(根据直觉找寻)野兽的踪迹。
00:24
and that worked fine. It's hardwired in our brains.
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这的确行得通。因为这些是我们与生俱来的本能。
00:27
But the pace of exponential growth
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然而信息技术当下的发展速度
00:30
is really what describes information technologies.
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只能用指数发展来形容。
00:33
And it's not just computation.
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这两者的差异不仅仅局限于数值。
00:36
There is a big difference between linear and exponential growth.
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它们是天差地别的。
00:38
If I take 30 steps linearly -- one, two, three, four, five --
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假如我直走30步,一、二、三、四、五,
00:42
I get to 30.
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我会一直走到30。
00:44
If I take 30 steps exponentially -- two, four, eight, 16 --
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可是假如我以指数方式走三十步,二、四、八、16,
00:47
I get to a billion.
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我会到达十亿多。
00:49
It makes a huge difference.
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这之间差了十万八千里啊。
00:51
And that really describes information technology.
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偏偏指数增长正确描述了当今的信息技术发展。
00:53
When I was a student at MIT,
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当我尚是一位麻省理工的学生时,
00:55
we all shared one computer that took up a whole building.
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我们班共用一台占据了整栋房子的电脑。
00:57
The computer in your cellphone today is a million times cheaper,
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不过现在的手机芯片比那台电脑便宜一百万倍
01:00
a million times smaller,
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体型也小了一百万倍,
01:02
a thousand times more powerful.
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但功能却强大了千倍。
01:04
That's a billion-fold increase in capability per dollar
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这就相当于一美元有亿倍的增长能力
01:07
that we've actually experienced since I was a student.
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从我尚是一名学生到现在,这就是我所经历的。
01:09
And we're going to do it again in the next 25 years.
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这样的快速发展还会保持25年。
01:12
Information technology progresses
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信息技术通过一系列
01:14
through a series of S-curves
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S-曲线的考验后
01:16
where each one is a different paradigm.
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将可以到达不同的模式。
01:18
So people say, "What's going to happen when Moore's Law comes to an end?"
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因此有人问:”当摩尔定律效尽时,这世界将会如何?“
01:21
Which will happen around 2020.
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我相信这大概会在2020年发生。
01:23
We'll then go to the next paradigm.
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我们将会进入一新纪元。
01:25
And Moore's Law was not the first paradigm
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摩尔定律并不是第一个
01:27
to bring exponential growth to computing.
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导致信息技术进行指数增长的范式。
01:29
The exponential growth of computing started
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信息技术的指数增长发生于
01:31
decades before Gordon Moore was even born.
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戈登·摩尔出生的十几年前。
01:33
And it doesn't just apply to computation.
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它不仅仅局限于信息技术。
01:37
It's really any technology where we can measure
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而且包含了我们
01:39
the underlying information properties.
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所知的所有科技中。
01:42
Here we have 49 famous computers. I put them in a logarithmic graph.
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我将49台不同年代的电脑整理进一幅对数图。
01:46
The logarithmic scale hides the scale of the increase,
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对数的大小遮掩住真正增长的比率。
01:50
because this represents trillions-fold increase
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因为这些代表着自1890年以来,
01:52
since the 1890 census.
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科技的万亿倍增长。
01:55
In 1950s they were shrinking vacuum tubes,
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在50年代,工程师们都为尽可能地
01:57
making them smaller and smaller. They finally hit a wall;
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缩小真空管而努力。但最终碰了壁。
02:00
they couldn't shrink the vacuum tube any more and keep the vacuum.
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他们无法继续缩小真空管并同时保持着真空的状态。
02:02
And that was the end of the shrinking of vacuum tubes,
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这就是真空管缩小事件的结果。
02:05
but it was not the end of the exponential growth of computing.
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却不是信息技术的指数增长的停滞。
02:08
We went to the fourth paradigm, transistors,
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于是我们进入到第四种模式,晶体管,
02:10
and finally integrated circuits.
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然后来到集成电路。
02:12
When that comes to an end we'll go to the sixth paradigm;
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当上述过程结束后,我们将会迈进第六种模式,
02:14
three-dimensional self-organizing molecular circuits.
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三维自组分子电路。
02:18
But what's even more amazing, really, than this
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但更惊人的是,
02:21
fantastic scale of progress,
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比这神奇的过程更惊人的是,
02:23
is that -- look at how predictable this is.
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预测科技发展的简单性。
02:25
I mean this went through thick and thin,
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科技发展是经历了所有时期,
02:27
through war and peace, through boom times and recessions.
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如战争期与和平期、繁荣期与衰退期。
02:30
The Great Depression made not a dent in this exponential progression.
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大萧条根本没有影响科技发展的指数增长。
02:34
We'll see the same thing in the economic recession we're having now.
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我相信我们会在这次金融危机中见到同样的东西。
02:38
At least the exponential growth of information technology capability
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至少信息技术的指数增长能力
02:41
will continue unabated.
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将不会减弱。
02:44
And I just updated these graphs.
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这些图是我刚刚更新过的。
02:46
Because I had them through 2002 in my book, "The Singularity is Near."
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于我所著的书《奇点将至》中,这些数据只更新到2002年。
02:49
So we updated them,
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所以我将它们
02:51
so I could present it here, to 2007.
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更新至2007年。
02:54
And I was asked, "Well aren't you nervous?
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很多问我:”你不紧张么?
02:56
Maybe it kind of didn't stay on this exponential progression."
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或许它们并不能证明指数增长的说法。”
03:00
I was a little nervous
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我的确有点紧张,
03:02
because maybe the data wouldn't be right,
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因为这些数据有可能是错误的,
03:04
but I've done this now for 30 years,
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但我在这行里干了30多年,
03:06
and it has stayed on this exponential progression.
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而且这行的发展趋势的确遵照指数增长的规律。
03:09
Look at this graph here.You could buy one transistor for a dollar in 1968.
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看,在1968年,一件晶体管需要一美元。
03:12
You can buy half a billion today,
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现在,你则可以买五亿件。
03:14
and they are actually better, because they are faster.
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实际上,现在的晶体管质量更好。
03:16
But look at how predictable this is.
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看看科技发展是多么好预测的。
03:18
And I'd say this knowledge is over-fitting to past data.
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只是我会说这些资讯是过去式的了。
03:21
I've been making these forward-looking predictions for about 30 years.
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我已经做过30年的前瞻性预测了。
03:25
And the cost of a transistor cycle,
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晶体管的费用
03:27
which is a measure of the price performance of electronics,
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相应地呈现了电子市场的价格水准,
03:29
comes down about every year.
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这每年都在下降。
03:31
That's a 50 percent deflation rate.
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那说明了百分之50的下降率。
03:33
And it's also true of other examples,
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这也适用于其他例子
03:35
like DNA data or brain data.
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如DNA数据或大脑数据。
03:37
But we more than make up for that.
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不过社会发展的更快。
03:39
We actually ship more than twice as much
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事实上,我们的生产力比
03:41
of every form of information technology.
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同等的科技要高两倍。
03:43
We've had 18 percent growth in constant dollars
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这半个世纪里,每样科技的价值
03:46
in every form of information technology for the last half-century,
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都增长了百分之18。
03:49
despite the fact that you can get twice as much of it each year.
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尽管你每年可以收获两次回报,
03:53
This is a completely different example.
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这是一全新的例子。
03:55
This is not Moore's Law.
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这并不是摩尔定律。
03:57
The amount of DNA data
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我们每年都可以获得
03:59
we've sequenced has doubled every year.
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增加了一倍以上的DNA数据。
04:01
The cost has come down by half every year.
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费用却每年减少一半。
04:04
And this has been a smooth progression
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自从人类基因定序计划以来,
04:06
since the beginning of the genome project.
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这已成为一持续的发展定律。
04:08
And halfway through the project, skeptics said,
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当计划进行至一半时,
04:10
"Well, this is not working out. You're halfway through the genome project
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怀疑者们说:“这不会成功的。计划时间已过了一半,
04:13
and you've finished one percent of the project."
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而你们只完成了百分之一的工作。”
04:15
But that was really right on schedule.
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但按照时间表来说,这是可行的。
04:17
Because if you double one percent seven more times,
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假如你将百分之一用而乘七次,
04:19
which is exactly what happened,
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这就是实际上会发生的,
04:21
you get 100 percent. And the project was finished on time.
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那就是百分之百。计划也按时完成了。
04:24
Communication technologies:
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通信技术有
04:26
50 different ways to measure this,
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50种不同的方式来评量。
04:28
the number of bits being moved around, the size of the Internet.
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如移动的位元数目和网络的大小。
04:31
But this has progressed at an exponential pace.
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但科技正以指数步伐前进。
04:33
This is deeply democratizing.
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这是强烈地民主化。
04:35
I wrote, over 20 years ago in "The Age of Intelligent Machines,"
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20年前,我在《智能简史》中写到,
04:38
when the Soviet Union was going strong, that it would be swept away
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随着苏联的扩张,它将会被增长的
04:41
by this growth of decentralized communication.
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通信势力所瓦解。
04:45
And we will have plenty of computation as we go through the 21st century
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当我们走过21世纪时,我们将会拥有新技术
04:48
to do things like simulate regions of the human brain.
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来协助我们进行模拟大脑区域等实验。
04:52
But where will we get the software?
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但我们从哪里得到这些技术?
04:54
Some critics say, "Oh, well software is stuck in the mud."
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一些评论家说:“哦,科技还没到那种地步呢。”
04:57
But we are learning more and more about the human brain.
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岂知我们正逐步了解大脑。
04:59
Spatial resolution of brain scanning is doubling every year.
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大脑扫描的空间分辨率,每年都有一倍地提高。
05:02
The amount of data we're getting about the brain is doubling every year.
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相关的数据,也随之一倍增长。
05:05
And we're showing that we can actually turn this data
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我们正在证明我们可以转化这些数据
05:08
into working models and simulations of brain regions.
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为大脑区域的模型和模拟实验。
05:11
There is about 20 regions of the brain that have been modeled,
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我们目前已模拟和测试了
05:13
simulated and tested:
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20个大脑区域:
05:15
the auditory cortex, regions of the visual cortex;
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听觉和视觉皮层,
05:18
cerebellum, where we do our skill formation;
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小脑,我们身体的协调器,
05:20
slices of the cerebral cortex, where we do our rational thinking.
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部分大脑皮层,我们进行理性思考的部分。
05:24
And all of this has fueled
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这些发现都非常平稳
05:26
an increase, very smooth and predictable, of productivity.
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和在预料之中帮助和增长了生产力。
05:29
We've gone from 30 dollars to 130 dollars
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我们的小时工资已从
05:31
in constant dollars in the value of an average hour of human labor,
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30美元增长至130美元了,
05:35
fueled by this information technology.
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这就是因信息技术的进步。
05:38
And we're all concerned about energy and the environment.
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这还只是对能源和环境的影响。
05:41
Well this is a logarithmic graph.
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这里又是一幅对数图。
05:43
This represents a smooth doubling,
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我们所利用的太阳能
05:45
every two years, of the amount of solar energy we're creating,
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每两年都增长一倍。
05:49
particularly as we're now applying nanotechnology,
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正是由于现时的纳米技术,
05:51
a form of information technology, to solar panels.
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这是一种信息技术。
05:54
And we're only eight doublings away
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我们只要再经历八次双倍增长,
05:56
from it meeting 100 percent of our energy needs.
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我们就可以百分之百地利用太阳能。
05:58
And there is 10 thousand times more sunlight than we need.
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而这些能力将会是万倍多于我们所需的。
06:02
We ultimately will merge with this technology. It's already very close to us.
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我们会最终接受这项技术。它的脚步已近了。
06:07
When I was a student it was across campus, now it's in our pockets.
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当我尚是一名学生时,电脑有整个校园那么大,而现在却可以装进口袋里。
06:10
What used to take up a building now fits in our pockets.
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以前需求整栋大楼的资源却被现时的口袋替代了。
06:13
What now fits in our pockets would fit in a blood cell in 25 years.
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哪知25年后,这些将可以装进我们的红血球里。
06:16
And we will begin to actually deeply influence
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当我们迈向这项技术时,
06:20
our health and our intelligence,
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它将会真正左右
06:22
as we get closer and closer to this technology.
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我们的健康和智慧。
06:26
Based on that we are announcing, here at TED,
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根据TED的传统,
06:29
in true TED tradition, Singularity University.
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我将在此公布,奇点大学。
06:32
It's a new university
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这是一所全新的大学,
06:34
that's founded by Peter Diamandis, who is here in the audience,
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由我和台下的彼得·迪曼蒂斯先生
06:36
and myself.
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共同创立。
06:38
It's backed by NASA and Google,
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它还获得美国太空总署和谷歌的赞助,
06:40
and other leaders in the high-tech and science community.
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以及其他高科领域的领袖们的支持。
06:44
And our goal was to assemble the leaders,
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我们的目标是召集领袖们,
06:47
both teachers and students,
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不管是学生还是老师,
06:49
in these exponentially growing information technologies,
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来共同研究正在指数增长的信息技术和
06:51
and their application.
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它的应用。
06:53
But Larry Page made an impassioned speech
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拉里·佩奇先生在我们的内部会议上
06:55
at our organizing meeting,
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发表了以慷慨激昂的演讲,
06:57
saying we should devote this study
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他说我们应致力研究
07:02
to actually addressing some of the major challenges facing humanity.
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如何真正解决人类面临的一些重大挑战。
07:06
And if we did that, then Google would back this.
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假使我们这样做,谷歌定会资助我们。
07:08
And so that's what we've done.
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这就是我们所做的改变。
07:10
The last third of the nine-week intensive summer session
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在紧张的九周暑假学营的最后三周里,
07:14
will be devoted to a group project to address
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我们将会投身于研究
07:16
some major challenge of humanity.
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一些现实社会里的重大问题。
07:18
Like for example, applying the Internet,
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如将网络普及至
07:20
which is now ubiquitous, in the rural areas of China or in Africa,
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中国和非洲的乡村地区,
07:25
to bringing health information
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从而将健康资讯
07:27
to developing areas of the world.
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传播至世界的每个角落。
07:30
And these projects will continue past these sessions,
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这项计划将会延伸至学营外,
07:33
using collaborative interactive communication.
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通过协作来讨论。
07:36
All the intellectual property that is created and taught
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而这些讨论所催生的智慧财产
07:40
will be online and available,
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将会在网络上公开
07:42
and developed online in a collaborative fashion.
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并在网络上进一步深入。
07:45
Here is our founding meeting.
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这是创校会议的照片。
07:47
But this is being announced today.
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我今天将在这宣布。
07:49
It will be permanently headquartered in Silicon Valley,
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奇点大学会永久设置于硅谷里的
07:52
at the NASA Ames research center.
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美国太空总署的埃米斯研究所。
07:54
There are different programs for graduate students,
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研究生和公司的主管们将会
07:56
for executives at different companies.
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被提供不同的课程。
07:59
The first six tracks here -- artificial intelligence,
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主要的方面将会是,人工智能,
08:01
advanced computing technologies, biotechnology, nanotechnology --
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先进的电脑技术,生物技术,纳米技术,
08:04
are the different core areas of information technology.
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这些都是信息技术里不同的核心领域。
08:08
Then we are going to apply them to the other areas,
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然后我们将会将他们应用至其它领域,
08:10
like energy, ecology,
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如能源,生态环境,
08:13
policy law and ethics, entrepreneurship,
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政策法律,道德和企业等,
08:15
so that people can bring these new technologies to the world.
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因此学员们可以将这些新技术带给全世界。
08:19
So we're very appreciative of the support we've gotten
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我们非常感谢那些帮过我们的人,
08:24
from both the intellectual leaders, the high-tech leaders,
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不管是学者领袖,还是高科领域的领袖,
08:26
particularly Google and NASA.
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特别感谢谷歌和美国太空总署。
08:28
This is an exciting new venture.
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这是一次崭新的刺激冒险。
08:30
And we invite you to participate. Thank you very much.
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我们邀请你们来参加。非常感谢。
08:33
(Applause)
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(鼓掌)
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