Ray Kurzweil: A university for the coming singularity

87,356 views ・ 2009-06-02

TED


Dvaput kliknite na engleske titlove ispod za reprodukciju videozapisa.

Prevoditelj: Ivan Majstorovic Recezent: Ando Saina
00:13
Information technology grows in an exponential manner.
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Infomacijske tehnologije rastu eksponencijalno.
00:16
It's not linear. And our intuition is linear.
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Ne rastu linearno. Naša intuicija je linearna.
00:20
When we walked through the savanna a thousand years ago
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Hodajući savanom prije tisuću godina
00:22
we made linear predictions where that animal would be,
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stvarali smo linearna predviđanja gdje bi neka životinja mogla biti.
00:24
and that worked fine. It's hardwired in our brains.
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I to je radilo dobro. Ugrađeno nam je u mozgove.
00:27
But the pace of exponential growth
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Ali brzina eksponencijalnog rasta
00:30
is really what describes information technologies.
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je ono što zapravo opisuje informacijske tehnologije.
00:33
And it's not just computation.
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A ne radi se samo o računanju.
00:36
There is a big difference between linear and exponential growth.
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Postoji velika razlika između linearnog i eksponencijalnog rasta.
00:38
If I take 30 steps linearly -- one, two, three, four, five --
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Ako napravim 30 koraka linearno, jedan, dva, tri, četiri, pet,
00:42
I get to 30.
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dođem do 30.
00:44
If I take 30 steps exponentially -- two, four, eight, 16 --
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Ako napravim 30 koraka eksponencijalno, dva, četiri, osam, 16,
00:47
I get to a billion.
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dođem do milijardu.
00:49
It makes a huge difference.
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To čini ogromnu razliku.
00:51
And that really describes information technology.
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I to zapravo opisuje informacijsku tehnologiju.
00:53
When I was a student at MIT,
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Kad sam bio student na MIT-u
00:55
we all shared one computer that took up a whole building.
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svi smo dijelili jedno računalo koje je zauzimalo čitavu zgradu.
00:57
The computer in your cellphone today is a million times cheaper,
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Računalo u vašem mobitelu danas je milijun puta jeftinije,
01:00
a million times smaller,
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milijun puta manje,
01:02
a thousand times more powerful.
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tisuću puta moćnije.
01:04
That's a billion-fold increase in capability per dollar
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To je povećanje snage po dolaru za milijardu
01:07
that we've actually experienced since I was a student.
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koje smo iskusili od vremena kad sam ja bio student.
01:09
And we're going to do it again in the next 25 years.
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I učinit ćemo to ponovo u narednih 25 godina.
01:12
Information technology progresses
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Informacijska tehnologija napreduje
01:14
through a series of S-curves
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kroz niz S-krivulja
01:16
where each one is a different paradigm.
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gdje je svaka od njih drugačija paradigma.
01:18
So people say, "What's going to happen when Moore's Law comes to an end?"
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Ljudi se pitaju, "Što će se dogoditi kada Moorov zakon dođe do svog kraja?"
01:21
Which will happen around 2020.
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A dogoditi će se oko 2020. godine.
01:23
We'll then go to the next paradigm.
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Tada ćemo prijeći na sljedeću paradigmu.
01:25
And Moore's Law was not the first paradigm
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Moorov zakon nije bio prva paradigma
01:27
to bring exponential growth to computing.
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koja je donijela eksponencijalni rast računarstva.
01:29
The exponential growth of computing started
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Eksponencijalni rast računarstva počeo je
01:31
decades before Gordon Moore was even born.
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desetljećima prije nego se Gordon Moore uopće rodio.
01:33
And it doesn't just apply to computation.
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A to se ne odnosi samo na računarstvo.
01:37
It's really any technology where we can measure
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To je zapravo bilo koja tehnologija u kojoj možemo mjeriti
01:39
the underlying information properties.
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ishodišna svojstva informacija.
01:42
Here we have 49 famous computers. I put them in a logarithmic graph.
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Ovdje imamo 49 poznatih računala. Stavio sam ih u logaritamski grafikon.
01:46
The logarithmic scale hides the scale of the increase,
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Logaritamsko mjerilo skriva pravi razmjer povećanja.
01:50
because this represents trillions-fold increase
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Zato što ovo prikazuje povećanje za faktor od trilijun
01:52
since the 1890 census.
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od 1890. godine.
01:55
In 1950s they were shrinking vacuum tubes,
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1950-tih godina smanjivali su vakumske cijevi,
01:57
making them smaller and smaller. They finally hit a wall;
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čineći ih sve manjima. Tada su naposljetku stali pred zid.
02:00
they couldn't shrink the vacuum tube any more and keep the vacuum.
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Nisu više mogli smanjiti vakumsku cijev i zadržati vakuum.
02:02
And that was the end of the shrinking of vacuum tubes,
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I bio je to kraj smanjivanja vakumskih cijevi.
02:05
but it was not the end of the exponential growth of computing.
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Ali to nije bio kraj eksponencijalnog rasta računarstva.
02:08
We went to the fourth paradigm, transistors,
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Prešli smo na četvrtu paradigmu, tranzistore
02:10
and finally integrated circuits.
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te naposljetku na integrirane krugove.
02:12
When that comes to an end we'll go to the sixth paradigm;
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Kad to dođe do kraja prijeći ćemo na šestu paradigmu,
02:14
three-dimensional self-organizing molecular circuits.
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trodimenzionalne samoorganizirajuće molekularne krugove.
02:18
But what's even more amazing, really, than this
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Ali, ono što je još više zadivljujuće od
02:21
fantastic scale of progress,
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ovog fantastičnog napretka
02:23
is that -- look at how predictable this is.
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jest njegova predvidljivost.
02:25
I mean this went through thick and thin,
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Mislim, ovaj napredak prošao je kroz debelo i tanko,
02:27
through war and peace, through boom times and recessions.
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rat i mir, kroz vrijeme procvata i recesije.
02:30
The Great Depression made not a dent in this exponential progression.
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Velika Depresija nije ni traga pustila na ovom eksponencijalnom rastu.
02:34
We'll see the same thing in the economic recession we're having now.
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Vidjet ćemo istu stvar u sadašnjoj ekonomskoj recesiji.
02:38
At least the exponential growth of information technology capability
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Barem će eksponencijalni rast sposobnosti informacijskih tehnologija
02:41
will continue unabated.
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nastaviti neoslabljen.
02:44
And I just updated these graphs.
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Upravo sam ažurirao ove grafove.
02:46
Because I had them through 2002 in my book, "The Singularity is Near."
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Jer sam ih koristio u svojoj knjizi iz 2002., "Singularnost se bliži."
02:49
So we updated them,
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Zato smo ih ažurirali
02:51
so I could present it here, to 2007.
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kako bi ih prezentirao ovdje, 2007.
02:54
And I was asked, "Well aren't you nervous?
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Pitali su me, "I, zar nisi nervozan?
02:56
Maybe it kind of didn't stay on this exponential progression."
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Možda nije nastavilo s ovom eksponencijalnom progresijom."
03:00
I was a little nervous
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Bio sam malo nervozan
03:02
because maybe the data wouldn't be right,
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jer možda podaci neće biti točni,
03:04
but I've done this now for 30 years,
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ali radio sam ovo, sada već 30 godina,
03:06
and it has stayed on this exponential progression.
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i rast je uvijek ostao eksponencijalan.
03:09
Look at this graph here.You could buy one transistor for a dollar in 1968.
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Pogledajte ovaj graf. Mogli ste kupiti jedan tranzistor za dolar 1968.
03:12
You can buy half a billion today,
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Danas možete kupiti pola milijarde.
03:14
and they are actually better, because they are faster.
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A zapravo su i bolji, jer su brži.
03:16
But look at how predictable this is.
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Ali pogledajte kako je ovo predvidljivo.
03:18
And I'd say this knowledge is over-fitting to past data.
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I rekao bih da se ovo znanje podudara sa ranijim podacima.
03:21
I've been making these forward-looking predictions for about 30 years.
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Radim na ovim predviđanjima već skoro 30 godina.
03:25
And the cost of a transistor cycle,
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Cijena tranzistorskog ciklusa,
03:27
which is a measure of the price performance of electronics,
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koja je mjerilo cijene performansi elektronike,
03:29
comes down about every year.
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pada otprilike svake godine.
03:31
That's a 50 percent deflation rate.
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To je deflacija od 50 posto.
03:33
And it's also true of other examples,
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A vrijedi i za druge primjere
03:35
like DNA data or brain data.
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kao što su DNA podaci ili podaci o mozgu.
03:37
But we more than make up for that.
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Ali mi više nego nadoknađujemo za to.
03:39
We actually ship more than twice as much
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Zapravo isporučujemo više nego dvostruko
03:41
of every form of information technology.
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svakog oblika informacijske tehnologije.
03:43
We've had 18 percent growth in constant dollars
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Imali smo 18 postotni rast u nepromijenjenim dolarima
03:46
in every form of information technology for the last half-century,
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u svakom obliku informacijskih tehnologija u zadnjih pola stoljeća.
03:49
despite the fact that you can get twice as much of it each year.
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Usprkos činjenici da ih možete dobiti dvostruko više svake godine.
03:53
This is a completely different example.
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Ovo je potpuno drugačiji primjer.
03:55
This is not Moore's Law.
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Ovo nije Moorov zakon.
03:57
The amount of DNA data
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Količina DNA podataka
03:59
we've sequenced has doubled every year.
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koje smo sekvencirali udvostručila se svake godine.
04:01
The cost has come down by half every year.
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Cijena se prepolovila svake godine.
04:04
And this has been a smooth progression
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Ovo je bio glatki progres
04:06
since the beginning of the genome project.
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od početka genomskog Projekta.
04:08
And halfway through the project, skeptics said,
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U pola projekta, skeptici su govorili,
04:10
"Well, this is not working out. You're halfway through the genome project
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"Ovo ne valja. Na polovici ste projekta genoma
04:13
and you've finished one percent of the project."
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i završili ste samo jedan posto projekta."
04:15
But that was really right on schedule.
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Ali to je zapravo bilo točno po rasporedu.
04:17
Because if you double one percent seven more times,
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Zato što ako udvostručite jedan posto još sedam puta,
04:19
which is exactly what happened,
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što je upravo ono što se dogodilo,
04:21
you get 100 percent. And the project was finished on time.
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dođete do 100 posto. I projekt je bio završen na vrijeme.
04:24
Communication technologies:
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Komunikacijske tehnologije:
04:26
50 different ways to measure this,
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50 različitih načina za mjerenje.
04:28
the number of bits being moved around, the size of the Internet.
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Broj bitova koji se prenose, veličina Interneta.
04:31
But this has progressed at an exponential pace.
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Ali ovo je napredovalo eksponencijalnim rastom.
04:33
This is deeply democratizing.
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Ovo je duboko demokratizirajuće.
04:35
I wrote, over 20 years ago in "The Age of Intelligent Machines,"
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Napisao sam, prije 20 godina, u knjizi "Doba inteligentnih strojeva",
04:38
when the Soviet Union was going strong, that it would be swept away
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kad je Sovjetski savez bio u punoj snazi, da će ga pomesti
04:41
by this growth of decentralized communication.
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ovaj rast decentralizirane komunikacije.
04:45
And we will have plenty of computation as we go through the 21st century
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I da ćemo imati dovoljnu snagu računala u 21. stoljeću
04:48
to do things like simulate regions of the human brain.
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da činimo stvari poput simuliranja pojedinih dijelova ljudskog mozga.
04:52
But where will we get the software?
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Ali gdje ćemo nabaviti softver?
04:54
Some critics say, "Oh, well software is stuck in the mud."
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Neki kritičari kažu, "Ah, softver je zapeo u blatu."
04:57
But we are learning more and more about the human brain.
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Ali učimo sve više o ljudskom mozgu.
04:59
Spatial resolution of brain scanning is doubling every year.
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Prostorna razlučivost skeniranja mozga udvostručuje se svake godine.
05:02
The amount of data we're getting about the brain is doubling every year.
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Količina podataka koje dobivamo o mozgu udvostručuje se svake godine.
05:05
And we're showing that we can actually turn this data
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I pokazujemo da zapravo možemo pretvoriti te podatke
05:08
into working models and simulations of brain regions.
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u radne modele i simulacije moždanih područja.
05:11
There is about 20 regions of the brain that have been modeled,
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Postoji oko 20 područja u mozgu koja su bila modelirana,
05:13
simulated and tested:
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simulirane i testirane:
05:15
the auditory cortex, regions of the visual cortex;
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auditorni korteks, područja vizualnog korteksa,
05:18
cerebellum, where we do our skill formation;
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mali mozak, gdje formiramo vještine,
05:20
slices of the cerebral cortex, where we do our rational thinking.
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dijelovi moždane kore, kojeg koristimo za racionalno razmišljanje.
05:24
And all of this has fueled
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I sve je ovo potaknulo
05:26
an increase, very smooth and predictable, of productivity.
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povećanje produktivnosti, vrlo glatko i predvidljivo.
05:29
We've gone from 30 dollars to 130 dollars
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Otišli smo sa 30 dolara na 130 dolara
05:31
in constant dollars in the value of an average hour of human labor,
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u nepromijenjenim dolarima u vrijednosti prosječnog sata ljudskog rada,
05:35
fueled by this information technology.
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pogonjenu ovom informacijskom tehnologijom.
05:38
And we're all concerned about energy and the environment.
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I svi smo zabrinuti za energiju i okoliš.
05:41
Well this is a logarithmic graph.
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Ovo je logaritamski graf.
05:43
This represents a smooth doubling,
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Ovo predstavlja glatko udvostručenje,
05:45
every two years, of the amount of solar energy we're creating,
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svake dvije godine, u količini solarne energije koju proizvodimo.
05:49
particularly as we're now applying nanotechnology,
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Posebno zato što danas primjenjujemo nanotehnologiju,
05:51
a form of information technology, to solar panels.
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oblik informacijske tehnologije, za solarne panele.
05:54
And we're only eight doublings away
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I samo smo osam udvostručenja udaljeni
05:56
from it meeting 100 percent of our energy needs.
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od pokrivanja 100 posto naših energetskih potreba.
05:58
And there is 10 thousand times more sunlight than we need.
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A postoji 10 tisuća puta više sunčeve svjetlosti nego što nam je potrebno.
06:02
We ultimately will merge with this technology. It's already very close to us.
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Na kraju ćemo se spojiti s ovom tehnologijom. Već nam je jako bliska.
06:07
When I was a student it was across campus, now it's in our pockets.
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Kad sam ja bio student prostirala se preko kampusa. Sada stane u naše džepove.
06:10
What used to take up a building now fits in our pockets.
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Ono što je nekad zauzimalo zgradu sada stane u džep.
06:13
What now fits in our pockets would fit in a blood cell in 25 years.
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Što sada stane u džep, moći će stati u krvnu stanicu za 25 godina.
06:16
And we will begin to actually deeply influence
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Početi ćemo zapravo duboko utjecati
06:20
our health and our intelligence,
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na naše zdravlje i inteligenciju,
06:22
as we get closer and closer to this technology.
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kako se budemo zbližavali sa ovom tehnologijom.
06:26
Based on that we are announcing, here at TED,
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Na osnovu toga najavljujemo, ovdje na TEDu,
06:29
in true TED tradition, Singularity University.
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u istinskoj TED tradiciji, Sveučilište Singularnosti.
06:32
It's a new university
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To je novo sveučilište
06:34
that's founded by Peter Diamandis, who is here in the audience,
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koje smo osnovali Peter Diamandis, koji je ovdje u publici,
06:36
and myself.
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i ja.
06:38
It's backed by NASA and Google,
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Podržavaju ga NASA i Google,
06:40
and other leaders in the high-tech and science community.
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i drugi vođe visoko-tehnološke i znanstvene zajednice.
06:44
And our goal was to assemble the leaders,
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Naš cilj je spojiti vođe,
06:47
both teachers and students,
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učitelje i učenike,
06:49
in these exponentially growing information technologies,
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s ovim rastućim informacijskim tehnologijama
06:51
and their application.
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i njihovom primjenom.
06:53
But Larry Page made an impassioned speech
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Larry Page održao je strastveni govor
06:55
at our organizing meeting,
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na našem organizacijskom sastanku,
06:57
saying we should devote this study
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govoreći da trebamo posvetiti ovaj studij
07:02
to actually addressing some of the major challenges facing humanity.
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glavnim izazovima za čovječanstvo.
07:06
And if we did that, then Google would back this.
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I ako bismo to učinili, Google bi to podržao.
07:08
And so that's what we've done.
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Stoga, to je ono što smo učinili.
07:10
The last third of the nine-week intensive summer session
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Posljednja trećina intenzinve ljetne sesije od devet tjedana
07:14
will be devoted to a group project to address
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biti će posvećena grupnom projektu usmjerenom
07:16
some major challenge of humanity.
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ka jednom glavnom izazovu čovječanstva.
07:18
Like for example, applying the Internet,
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Kao naprimjer, primjena Interneta,
07:20
which is now ubiquitous, in the rural areas of China or in Africa,
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koji je sad sveprisutan, u ruralnim područjima Kine ili Afrike,
07:25
to bringing health information
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za prijenos informacija o zdravstvu
07:27
to developing areas of the world.
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područjima u ravoju.
07:30
And these projects will continue past these sessions,
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Ti projekti će se nastaviti i nakon ovih sjednica,
07:33
using collaborative interactive communication.
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korištenjem suradničkih interaktivnih komunikacija.
07:36
All the intellectual property that is created and taught
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Svo intelektualno vlasništvo koje se stvara i podučava,
07:40
will be online and available,
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bit će online i dostupno,
07:42
and developed online in a collaborative fashion.
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i razvijano online kroz međusobnu suradnju.
07:45
Here is our founding meeting.
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Ovo je naš osnivački sastanak.
07:47
But this is being announced today.
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Ali ovo je najavljeno danas.
07:49
It will be permanently headquartered in Silicon Valley,
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Bit će trajno smješteno u Silicijskoj dolini,
07:52
at the NASA Ames research center.
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u NASA Ames istraživačkom centru.
07:54
There are different programs for graduate students,
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Postoje različiti programi za dodiplomske studente
07:56
for executives at different companies.
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i za menadžere različitih kompanija.
07:59
The first six tracks here -- artificial intelligence,
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Prvih šest smjerova, umjetna inteligencija,
08:01
advanced computing technologies, biotechnology, nanotechnology --
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napredne računalne tehnologije, biotehnologija, nanotehnologija
08:04
are the different core areas of information technology.
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različita su sržna područja informacijskih tehnologija.
08:08
Then we are going to apply them to the other areas,
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Kasnije ćemo ih primjeniti na druga područja,
08:10
like energy, ecology,
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poput energije, ekologije,
08:13
policy law and ethics, entrepreneurship,
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zkonodavstva i etike, poduzetništva,
08:15
so that people can bring these new technologies to the world.
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tako da ljudi mogu donijeti te nove tehnologije u svijet.
08:19
So we're very appreciative of the support we've gotten
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Vrlo smo zahvalni na podršci koju smo primili
08:24
from both the intellectual leaders, the high-tech leaders,
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od intelektualnih vođa, visoko-tehnoloških vođa,
08:26
particularly Google and NASA.
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a posebno od Google-a i NASA-e.
08:28
This is an exciting new venture.
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Ovo je uzbudljiv novi pothvat.
08:30
And we invite you to participate. Thank you very much.
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I pozivamo vas da sudjelujete. Najljepša vam hvala.
08:33
(Applause)
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(Pljesak)
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