Bran Ferren: To create for the ages, let's combine art and engineering

109,529 views ・ 2014-03-25

TED


请双击下面的英文字幕来播放视频。

翻译人员: Phillip Feng 校对人员: Carrie Li
00:13
Good morning.
0
13062
2265
早上好。
00:15
When I was a little boy,
1
15327
1787
在我小时候
00:17
I had an experience that changed my life,
2
17114
3077
有一个经历改变了我的一生,
00:20
and is in fact why I'm here today.
3
20191
2908
这也是我站在这的原因。
00:23
That one moment
4
23099
1941
在那一刻
00:25
profoundly affected how I think about
5
25040
2262
我对艺术、设计和工程的看法
00:27
art, design and engineering.
6
27302
3221
被深深地改变了。
00:30
As background, I was fortunate enough to grow up
7
30523
2757
关于背景,我很幸运地生长在
00:33
in a family of loving and talented artists
8
33280
3713
位于世界最大城市之一的
00:36
in one of the world's great cities.
9
36993
2564
一个充满爱和有才艺术家的家庭。
00:39
My dad, John Ferren, who died when I was 15,
10
39557
3877
我的父亲,John Ferren, 在我15岁的时候去世了,
00:43
was an artist by both passion and profession,
11
43434
3530
他曾是一个热爱艺术的艺术家,
00:46
as is my mom, Rae.
12
46964
2260
同我母亲Rae一样。
00:49
He was one of the New York School
13
49224
1805
他曾是纽约抽象表现主义画家
00:51
abstract expressionists who,
14
51029
1761
的一员,
00:52
together with his contemporaries,
15
52790
2512
他和他的同龄人一起,
00:55
invented American modern art,
16
55302
2898
创造了美国现代艺术,
00:58
and contributed to moving the American zeitgeist
17
58200
3185
并且为在20世纪把美国的时代思潮
01:01
towards modernism in the 20th century.
18
61385
4543
推向现代主义做出了贡献。
01:05
Isn't it remarkable that, after thousands of years
19
65928
2921
在具象派艺术盛行了几千年以后,
01:08
of people doing mostly representational art,
20
68849
3641
相比之下,
现代艺术就像只存在了15分钟,
01:12
that modern art, comparatively speaking,
21
72490
2033
01:14
is about 15 minutes old,
22
74523
2340
如今卻非常普及,
01:16
yet now pervasive.
23
76863
1898
这难道不是卓越非凡的吗?
01:18
As with many other important innovations,
24
78761
1944
其它许多重要的创新也是如此,
01:20
those radical ideas required no new technology,
25
80705
3620
那些激进的理念无需任何新技术,
01:24
just fresh thinking and a willingness to experiment,
26
84325
2893
只需要创新的思维和敢于尝试的意愿,
01:27
plus resiliency in the face of near-universal criticism
27
87218
4168
加上能够承受几乎所有人批判与反对
01:31
and rejection.
28
91386
1454
的恢复能力。
01:32
In our home, art was everywhere.
29
92840
2517
在我们家里,艺术无处不在。
01:35
It was like oxygen,
30
95357
1571
它就像氧气,
01:36
around us and necessary for life.
31
96928
3162
环绕着我们,也是我们生命的需要。
01:40
As I watched him paint,
32
100090
1859
我看着父亲绘画的时候,
01:41
Dad taught me that art
33
101949
2307
他教导我说艺术
01:44
was not about being decorative,
34
104256
2209
并不是用来装饰的,
01:46
but was a different way of communicating ideas,
35
106465
3114
而是交流思想的另一种方法,
01:49
and in fact one that could bridge the worlds
36
109579
2037
确切的说,这种方法可以把知识和见解
01:51
of knowledge and insight.
37
111616
2928
这两个世界给联系起来。
01:54
Given this rich artistic environment,
38
114544
2140
在这样一个充满艺术气息的环境里,
01:56
you'd assume that I would have been compelled
39
116684
1615
你会认为我会被迫着
01:58
to go into the family business,
40
118299
2109
去从事家族企业,
02:00
but no.
41
120408
2616
但你错了。
02:03
I followed the path of most kids
42
123024
1787
我像那些生来就是为了
02:04
who are genetically programmed
43
124811
1350
逼家长们发疯的小孩子一样,
02:06
to make their parents crazy.
44
126161
2199
选择了另一条路。
02:08
I had no interest in becoming an artist,
45
128360
2623
我对成为一名艺术家毫无兴趣,
02:10
certainly not a painter.
46
130983
1560
更别谈画家。
02:12
What I did love was electronics and machines --
47
132543
3299
我当时爱的是电器和机械--
02:15
taking them apart, building new ones,
48
135842
1620
把他们拆开,建造新的,
02:17
and making them work.
49
137462
1887
并让它们运作。
02:19
Fortunately, my family also had engineers in it,
50
139349
3902
幸运的是,我的家庭中也有工程师,
02:23
and with my parents,
51
143251
1208
他们和我的父母,
02:24
these were my first role models.
52
144459
2628
都是我最早的榜样。
02:27
What they all had in common
53
147087
1357
他们所有人的共同点
02:28
was they worked very, very hard.
54
148444
2708
就是都非常努力地工作。
02:31
My grandpa owned and operated a sheet metal
55
151152
2370
我的祖父曾在布鲁克林拥有一个
02:33
kitchen cabinet factory in Brooklyn.
56
153522
2700
他自己运作的钣金橱柜厂。
02:36
On weekends, we would go together to Cortlandt Street,
57
156222
3424
在周末的时候,我们会一起去Cortlandt 街,
02:39
which was New York City's radio row.
58
159646
2675
现在已经是纽约城的广播站了。
02:42
There we would explore massive piles
59
162321
2803
在那里我们会探索成堆的
02:45
of surplus electronics,
60
165124
1221
盈余的电子产品,
02:46
and for a few bucks bring home treasures
61
166345
2302
和一些物美价廉的宝贝,
02:48
like Norden bombsights
62
168647
1432
比如诺登投弹瞄准器
02:50
and parts from the first IBM tube-based computers.
63
170079
4511
和IBM最早生产的管座电脑的零件。
02:54
I found these objects both useful and fascinating.
64
174590
3066
我发现这些东西很有用也很吸引人。
02:57
I learned about engineering and how things worked,
65
177656
2631
我认识了工程与一些东西的运作原理,
03:00
not at school
66
180287
1460
不是从学校,
03:01
but by taking apart and studying
67
181747
1789
而是通过拆卸和研究
03:03
these fabulously complex devices.
68
183536
2477
这些极度复杂的装置。
03:06
I did this for hours every day,
69
186013
2584
我每天都要在这上面花上好几个小时,
03:08
apparently avoiding electrocution.
70
188597
3298
显然还要防止自己被电死。
03:11
Life was good.
71
191895
1572
美好的生活。
03:13
However, every summer, sadly,
72
193467
2321
然而令人悲哀的是,每个夏天,
03:15
the machines got left behind
73
195788
2033
那些机器都会被抛下,
03:17
while my parents and I traveled overseas
74
197821
2204
因为我父母会带着我出国
03:20
to experience history, art and design.
75
200025
3640
去体验历史、艺术和设计。
03:23
We visited the great museums and historic buildings
76
203665
2394
我们参观了位于欧洲和中东的
03:26
of both Europe and the Middle East,
77
206059
1860
大博物馆和历史性建筑,
03:27
but to encourage my growing interest
78
207919
2260
但为了激励我对科学和科技
03:30
in science and technology,
79
210179
1815
日益增长的兴趣,
03:31
they would simply drop me off in places
80
211994
2284
他们会简单的把我放到
03:34
like the London Science Museum,
81
214278
2440
像伦敦科学博物馆之类的地方,
03:36
where I would wander endlessly for hours by myself
82
216718
3718
在那里我会花几个小时无止尽的独自游走,
03:40
studying the history of science and technology.
83
220436
3976
学习与科学和科技相关的历史。
03:44
Then, when I was about nine years old,
84
224412
3264
然后,在我差不多九岁的时候,
03:47
we went to Rome.
85
227676
1868
我们到了罗马。
03:49
On one particularly hot summer day,
86
229544
2361
在一个格外炎热的夏天,
03:51
we visited a drum-shaped building that from the outside
87
231905
2879
我们参观了一个外观并不起眼的
03:54
was not particularly interesting.
88
234784
2244
鼓形建筑。
03:57
My dad said it was called the Pantheon,
89
237028
2325
我父亲告诉我它被称为万神殿,
03:59
a temple for all of the gods.
90
239353
2468
一个为诸神而建的神殿。
04:01
It didn't look all that special from the outside,
91
241821
2274
从外面它看起来并不特别,
04:04
as I said, but when we walked inside,
92
244095
2439
就像我之前说的, 但当我们走进去的时候,
04:06
I was immediately struck by three things:
93
246534
3313
我瞬间被三样东西震惊了:
04:09
First of all, it was pleasantly cool
94
249847
3230
首先,室内是令人舒服的凉爽,
04:13
despite the oppressive heat outside.
95
253077
2078
尽管室外闷热。
04:15
It was very dark, the only source of light
96
255155
2714
这里面非常暗,唯一的光线来源
04:17
being an big open hole in the roof.
97
257869
2473
是屋顶的一个大洞。
04:20
Dad explained that this wasn't a big open hole,
98
260342
2233
父亲解释说这不是一个大洞,
04:22
but it was called the oculus,
99
262575
1814
而是被称为眼洞窗,
04:24
an eye to the heavens.
100
264389
2376
天堂的一只眼睛。
04:26
And there was something about this place,
101
266765
2145
还有,这个地方有些东西,
04:28
I didn't know why, that just felt special.
102
268910
3003
我不知道为什么,就是感觉很特别。
04:31
As we walked to the center of the room,
103
271913
1998
当我们走到房间的中央,
04:33
I looked up at the heavens through the oculus.
104
273911
2821
我通过眼洞窗仰望天堂。
04:36
This was the first church that I'd been to
105
276732
2297
这是我到过的第一个
04:39
that provided an unrestricted view
106
279029
2203
为神与人之间提供了
04:41
between God and man.
107
281232
3158
直接视野的教堂。
04:44
But I wondered, what about when it rained?
108
284390
3430
但我当时好奇,如果下雨了怎么办?
04:47
Dad may have called this an oculus,
109
287820
1857
虽然我父亲把它称为眼洞窗,
04:49
but it was, in fact, a big hole in the roof.
110
289677
3087
但它实际上就是房顶的一个大洞。
04:52
I looked down and saw floor drains
111
292764
1829
我低头看到了地面的排水管
04:54
had been cut into the stone floor.
112
294593
2585
是切在地面的石头上的。
04:57
As I became more accustomed to the dark,
113
297178
2459
当我变得更适应于黑暗,
04:59
I was able to make out details of the floor
114
299637
2264
我逐渐能够看清地板与周围墙壁
05:01
and the surrounding walls.
115
301901
1730
上的细节了。
05:03
No big deal here, just the same statuary stuff
116
303631
2577
这儿没什么大不了的,只是一些在罗马
05:06
that we'd seen all over Rome.
117
306208
1916
随处可见的雕像罢了。
05:08
In fact, it looked like the Appian Way
118
308124
1672
实际上,它看上去像亚庇古道,
05:09
marble salesman showed up
119
309796
2196
那个大理石推销员带着他的样本书出现,
05:11
with his sample book, showed it to Hadrian,
120
311992
2448
展示给了哈德良,
05:14
and Hadrian said, "We'll take all of it."
121
314440
2640
然后哈德良说:"我们全都要了”的地方。
05:17
(Laughter)
122
317080
1706
(笑声)
05:18
But the ceiling was amazing.
123
318786
3218
但天花板还是很惊艳的。
05:22
It looked like a Buckminster Fuller geodesic dome.
124
322004
2836
它看上去像Buckminster Fuller的一个穹顶建筑。
05:24
I'd seen these before,
125
324840
1309
我曾经见过这些,
05:26
and Bucky was friends with my dad.
126
326149
2244
Bucky也是我父亲的朋友。
05:28
It was modern, high-tech, impressive,
127
328393
3491
它很现代、 高科技的、 令人印象深刻,
05:31
a huge 142-foot clear span
128
331884
2437
142 英尺的巨大净跨距
05:34
which, not coincidentally, was exactly its height.
129
334321
3243
也并非巧合的,刚好是是它自身的高度。
05:37
I loved this place.
130
337564
1262
我爱这个地方。
05:38
It was really beautiful and unlike anything I'd ever seen before,
131
338826
3419
它非常的美丽而且是我前所未见的,
05:42
so I asked my dad, "When was this built?"
132
342245
3570
所以我问我父亲:"这是什么时候修建的?"
05:45
He said, "About 2,000 years ago."
133
345815
3132
他说:"大约 2000 年前"。
05:48
And I said, "No, I mean, the roof."
134
348947
2504
我说:"不,我的意思是,屋顶"。
05:51
You see, I assumed that this was a modern roof
135
351451
1959
是这样,我把它默认为一个现代的屋顶,
05:53
that had been put on because the original
136
353410
1918
把它放在那是因为原来的屋顶
05:55
was destroyed in some long-past war.
137
355328
3546
在很久以前的一场战争中被摧毁了。
05:58
He said, "It's the original roof."
138
358874
3462
他说,"它就是原始的屋顶"。
06:02
That moment changed my life,
139
362336
2478
那一刻,我的一生被改变了,
06:04
and I can remember it as if it were yesterday.
140
364814
2649
而且依然令我记忆犹新。
06:07
For the first time, I realized people were smart
141
367463
2595
这是我第一次意识到人类在2000多年前
06:10
2,000 years ago. (Laughter)
142
370058
2140
就很聪明了。(笑声)
06:12
This had never crossed my mind.
143
372198
2114
这点我以前从未想到。
06:14
I mean, to me, the pyramids at Giza,
144
374312
3871
我是说,在我看来,吉萨的金字塔,
06:18
we visited those the year before,
145
378183
1928
我们去年参观过,
06:20
and sure they're impressive, nice enough design,
146
380111
2920
它们确实令人印象深刻、很好的设计,
06:23
but look, give me an unlimited budget,
147
383031
2455
不过,给我无限的预算、
06:25
20,000 to 40,000 laborers, and about 10 to 20 years
148
385486
3997
两万到四万个工人和大概10 至20 年
06:29
to cut and drag stone blocks across the countryside,
149
389483
3616
在乡村里切割和拖动石头块,
06:33
and I'll build you pyramids too.
150
393099
2764
我也能给你修出金字塔。
06:35
But no amount of brute force
151
395863
2803
但是再多的蛮力也无法
06:38
gets you the dome of the Pantheon,
152
398666
3042
创造出万神殿的圆顶,
06:41
not 2,000 years ago, nor today.
153
401708
3019
两千年前不行,现在也不行。
06:44
And incidentally, it is still the largest
154
404727
2740
顺便说一下,它到目前为止仍是
06:47
unreinforced concrete dome that's ever been built.
155
407467
3814
历史上最大的未加固的混凝土圆顶。
06:51
To build the Pantheon took some miracles.
156
411281
2995
万神殿的修建包含了一些奇迹。
06:54
By miracles, I mean things that are
157
414276
2432
我所说的奇迹是指
06:56
technically barely possible,
158
416708
2587
技术上几乎不可能的、
06:59
very high-risk, and might not be
159
419295
3072
极度高的风险、并且可能
07:02
actually accomplishable at this moment in time,
160
422367
2584
在这一时间段根本无法完成的,
07:04
certainly not by you.
161
424951
4252
当然更不是由你。
07:09
For example, here are some of the Pantheon's miracles.
162
429203
3125
例如,下面是万神殿的一些奇迹。
07:12
To make it even structurally possible,
163
432328
2693
仅仅要让它的结构可行,
07:15
they had to invent super-strong concrete,
164
435021
2567
他们不得不创造超强的混凝土,
07:17
and to control weight,
165
437588
1949
还得控制重量,
07:19
varied the density of the aggregate
166
439537
2068
这是通过在搭建圆顶的过程中
07:21
as they worked their way up the dome.
167
441605
2768
不断改变混合物的密度而达到的。
07:24
For strength and lightness, the dome structure
168
444373
2301
对于强度和轻度,圆顶的结构
07:26
used five rings of coffers,
169
446674
2037
使用了花格镶板的五个圆环,
07:28
each of diminishing size,
170
448711
1607
每个的大小递减,
07:30
which imparts a dramatic forced perspective
171
450318
2736
因此为设计赋予了一个
引人注目的强迫视图。
07:33
to the design.
172
453054
2007
它里面非常凉快
07:35
It was wonderfully cool inside
173
455061
1925
07:36
because of its huge thermal mass,
174
456986
2183
的原因是源于它庞大的热质量,
07:39
natural convection of air rising up
175
459169
2085
自然对流的空气上升
07:41
through the oculus,
176
461254
1401
通过眼洞窗,
07:42
and a Venturi effect when wind blows across
177
462655
2475
并在风吹过屋顶时
07:45
the top of the building.
178
465130
2303
产生文丘里效应。
07:47
I discovered for the first time that light itself
179
467433
3960
我第一次发现光线本身
07:51
has substance.
180
471393
1967
是有实质的。
07:53
The shaft of light beaming through the oculus
181
473360
2677
透过眼洞窗的光束
07:56
was both beautiful and palpable,
182
476037
2490
是美丽的,也是可感知的,
07:58
and I realized for the first time
183
478527
2257
并且让我第一次意识到
08:00
that light could be designed.
184
480784
1901
光是可以被设计的。
08:02
Further, that of all of the forms of design,
185
482685
4874
进一步而言,所有形式的设计,
08:07
visual design,
186
487559
1376
视觉设计,
08:08
they were all kind of irrelevant without it,
187
488935
1831
如果没有它貌似就有些不切实际了,
08:10
because without light, you can't see any of them.
188
490766
3861
因为如果没有光,那些东西你都看不见。
08:14
I also realized that I wasn't the first person
189
494627
2452
我还意识到我并不是第一个
08:17
to think that this place was really special.
190
497079
3259
认为这个地方很特别的人。
08:20
It survived gravity, barbarians, looters, developers
191
500338
4377
它经受住了重力、 野蛮人、 掠夺者、 开发人员
08:24
and the ravages of time to become
192
504715
1899
和时间的蹂躏,从而成为了
08:26
what I believe is the longest
193
506614
1380
我相信是历史上
08:27
continuously occupied building in history.
194
507994
2957
被持续使用最久的建筑。
08:30
Largely because of that visit,
195
510951
2216
主要是因为那次参观,
08:33
I came to understand that,
196
513167
1537
我开始明白了,
08:34
contrary to what I was being told in school,
197
514704
2639
与学校教导我的相反,
08:37
the worlds of art and design
198
517343
2029
艺术和设计的世界
08:39
were not, in fact, incompatible
199
519372
2016
事实上并不是
08:41
with science and engineering.
200
521388
1676
不跟科学与工程兼容的。
08:43
I realized, when combined,
201
523064
2093
我意识到,当两者结合时,
08:45
you could create things that were amazing
202
525157
2763
你可以创造惊出人的东西,
08:47
that couldn't be done in either domain alone.
203
527920
2846
而这些只在单个领域是完成不了的。
08:50
But in school, with few exceptions,
204
530766
2433
但在学校,除了少数例外,
08:53
they were treated as separate worlds,
205
533199
1920
它们被视为独立的世界,
08:55
and they still are.
206
535119
2143
现在依然如此。
08:57
My teachers told me that I had to get serious
207
537262
2696
我老师说我必须正经地
08:59
and focus on one or the other.
208
539958
2173
选择一个领域。
09:02
However, urging me to specialize
209
542131
3095
然而,催促我专门化
09:05
only caused me to really appreciate those polymaths
210
545226
3310
只使得我更加感激那些博学者
09:08
like Michelangelo, Leonardo da Vinci,
211
548536
4150
例如 达 · 芬奇、 米开朗基罗、
09:12
Benjamin Franklin,
212
552686
1425
本杰明 · 富兰克林,
09:14
people who did exactly the opposite.
213
554111
2710
那些做了完全相反的人。
09:16
And this led me to embrace
214
556821
2189
这让我接受
09:19
and want to be in both worlds.
215
559010
2970
并且想要存在于两个世界。
09:21
So then how do these projects of unprecedented creative vision and technical complexity
216
561980
5828
那么这些前所未有的创造性视野 和复杂的技术
09:27
like the Pantheon actually happen?
217
567808
2494
比如万神殿,是怎样出现的呢?
09:30
Someone themselves, perhaps Hadrian,
218
570302
3928
一个人自身,或许同哈德良一样,
09:34
needed a brilliant creative vision.
219
574230
3191
需要绝妙的创造性视野。
09:37
They also needed the storytelling and leadership skills
220
577421
2793
他们还需要能够资助并且执行它的
09:40
necessary to fund and execute it,
221
580214
2778
叙述能力与领导能力,
09:42
and a mastery of science and technology
222
582992
2862
和对科学与技术的掌握
09:45
with the ability and knowhow
223
585854
2083
加上能够把现有的创新推动更远
09:47
to push existing innovations even farther.
224
587937
4046
的能力与诀窍。
09:51
It is my belief that to create these rare game changers
225
591983
3920
我相信这些稀有的颠覆者
09:55
requires you to pull off at least five miracles.
226
595903
4130
都至少需要创造五个奇迹。
10:00
The problem is, no matter how talented,
227
600033
2693
问题是,无论你是多么有才、
10:02
rich or smart you are,
228
602726
1732
富于或是聪明,
10:04
you only get one to one and a half miracles.
229
604458
3026
你只能得到一个至一个半的奇迹。
10:07
That's it. That's the quota.
230
607484
1782
就这么多,这就是你的限额。
10:09
Then you run out of time, money, enthusiasm,
231
609266
2613
然后你就会耗尽你的时间、金钱、热情,
10:11
whatever.
232
611879
1379
无论你有的是什么。
10:13
Remember, most people can't even imagine
233
613258
2277
记住,大多数人连想都不敢想
10:15
one of these technical miracles,
234
615535
1907
这些技术奇迹的其中一个,
10:17
and you need at least five to make a Pantheon.
235
617442
3109
而你至少需要实现五个 才能建成万神殿
10:20
In my experience, these rare visionaries
236
620551
2501
以我的经验,在这些罕见的预言家中,
10:23
who can think across the worlds of art,
237
623052
1837
能够跨越艺术、设计、
10:24
design and engineering
238
624889
1827
和工程的世界思考的人,
10:26
have the ability to notice
239
626716
2202
就有能力察觉
10:28
when others have provided enough of the miracles
240
628918
2717
什么时候其他人提供了足够多的奇迹
10:31
to bring the goal within reach.
241
631635
2556
以至于目标是可以实现的了。
10:34
Driven by the clarity of their vision,
242
634191
2637
被他们透彻的远见所驱使,
10:36
they summon the courage and determination
243
636828
2310
他们鼓了起勇气和决心
10:39
to deliver the remaining miracles
244
639138
2097
来实现剩余的那些奇迹,
10:41
and they often take what other people think to be
245
641235
3550
并且他们往往把他人认为是
10:44
insurmountable obstacles
246
644785
2046
无法逾越的障碍
10:46
and turn them into features.
247
646831
1785
转化成为特色。
10:48
Take the oculus of the Pantheon.
248
648616
2927
以万神殿的眼洞窗为例。
10:51
By insisting that it be in the design,
249
651543
1898
由于坚持把它归于设计之中,
10:53
it meant you couldn't use much of the structural technology
250
653441
2873
就意味着你不能大量运用为 罗马的半圆拱形门
10:56
that had been developed for Roman arches.
251
656314
2974
所研制的建筑科技。
10:59
However, by instead embracing it
252
659288
2898
然而,通过去欣然接受它
11:02
and rethinking weight and stress distribution,
253
662186
2588
并且反思重量与压力的分布,
11:04
they came up with a design that only works
254
664774
2482
他们找到了一种设计,
11:07
if there's a big hole in the roof.
255
667256
1904
只在当屋顶有个大洞的时候才适用。
11:09
That done, you now get the aesthetic
256
669160
3007
事成之后,你就得到了光线、降温,
11:12
and design benefits of light, cooling
257
672167
4381
关键是那个能与天堂直接相对
11:16
and that critical direct connection with the heavens.
258
676548
3300
的审美与设计上的好处。
11:19
Not bad.
259
679848
2044
还不错。
11:21
These people not only believed
260
681892
2061
这些人不只是相信
11:23
that the impossible can be done,
261
683953
2056
不可能可以被实现,
11:26
but that it must be done.
262
686009
2826
而是必须被实现。
11:28
Enough ancient history.
263
688835
2101
远古的历史就说到这。
11:30
What are some recent examples of innovations
264
690936
3133
当代有哪些关于
11:34
that combine creative design
265
694069
1879
结合了创意性设计
11:35
and technological advances in a way so profound
266
695948
3243
和科技进步的创新,如此深刻,
11:39
that they will be remembered
267
699191
1329
它们直到一千年以后
11:40
a thousand years from now?
268
700520
1833
还会被记住?
11:42
Well, putting a man on the moon was a good one,
269
702353
3096
说起来,把一个人送上月球是挺好,
11:45
and returning him safely to Earth wasn't bad either.
270
705449
3017
让他安全地回来也不错。
11:48
Talk about one giant leap:
271
708466
2492
谈到巨大的飞跃:
11:50
It's hard to imagine a more profound moment
272
710958
2448
在人类历史上很难想象到
11:53
in human history
273
713406
1312
一个比我们初次离开地球
11:54
than when we first left our world
274
714718
2173
去踏入另一个世界
11:56
to set foot on another.
275
716891
1891
更深刻的时刻了。
11:58
So what came after the moon?
276
718782
2221
登月后还有什么呢?
12:01
One is tempted to say that today's pantheon
277
721003
2808
有人禁不住会说,如今的万神殿
12:03
is the Internet,
278
723811
1661
是互联网,
12:05
but I actually think that's quite wrong,
279
725472
2469
但我确认为这不太对,
12:07
or at least it's only part of the story.
280
727941
2855
或者说这最多只是故事的一部分。
12:10
The Internet isn't a Pantheon.
281
730796
2516
互联网不是一个万神殿。
12:13
It's more like the invention of concrete:
282
733312
2591
它更像是混凝土的发明:
12:15
important, absolutely necessary
283
735903
2575
很重要、对建造万神殿
12:18
to build the Pantheon,
284
738478
1440
有绝对的必要,
12:19
and enduring,
285
739918
1356
并且让它持久,
12:21
but entirely insufficient by itself.
286
741274
3191
但单独拿出来是没有用的。
12:24
However, just as the technology of concrete
287
744465
2932
然而,就像混凝土技术
12:27
was critical in realization of the Pantheon,
288
747397
3587
是实现万神殿的关键,
12:30
new designers will use the technologies of the Internet
289
750984
3215
新的设计师们将使用互联网技术
12:34
to create novel concepts that will endure.
290
754199
3198
来打造新颖,并且能够持久的概念。
12:37
The smartphone is a perfect example.
291
757397
2058
智能手机是一个完美的例子。
12:39
Soon the majority of people on the planet
292
759455
1745
很快,地球上绝大多数的人
12:41
will have one,
293
761200
1334
都将拥有一台,
12:42
and the idea of connecting everyone
294
762534
2401
然后把每个人跟知识与他人
12:44
to both knowledge and each other will endure.
295
764935
3250
联系起来的点子就会持久。
12:48
So what's next?
296
768185
1308
那么,下一个是什么?
12:49
What imminent advance will be the equivalent of the Pantheon?
297
769493
3406
有那些临近了的发展将能与万 神殿相提并论?
12:52
Thinking about this,
298
772899
1435
想到这里,
12:54
I rejected many very plausible
299
774334
2547
我淘汰了很多非常值得鼓励
12:56
and dramatic breakthroughs to come,
300
776881
1896
和戏剧性的潜在突破,
12:58
such as curing cancer.
301
778777
2017
比如治疗癌症。
13:00
Why? Because Pantheons are anchored
302
780794
3338
为什么呢?因为万神殿被固定为了
13:04
in designed physical objects,
303
784132
2935
被设计出的有形物体,
13:07
ones that inspire by simply seeing
304
787067
2322
是那些人们单是通过观看和体验
13:09
and experiencing them,
305
789389
1420
就能受到启发的东西,
13:10
and will continue to do so indefinitely.
306
790809
2882
并且会这样无期限地延续下去。
13:13
It is a different kind of language, like art.
307
793691
4573
它是一种不同的语言,就像艺术。
13:18
These other vital contributions that extend life
308
798264
2772
另外这些为延长寿命和减轻病痛 所做出的贡献
13:21
and relieve suffering are, of course, critical,
309
801036
2693
当然也是至关重要,
13:23
and fantastic,
310
803729
1687
并且精妙绝伦的,
13:25
but they're part of the continuum of
311
805416
1793
但它们是我们对
13:27
our overall knowledge and technology,
312
807209
2512
知识和科技的总体认识的一部分延伸,
13:29
like the Internet.
313
809721
2524
就像互联网。
13:32
So what is next?
314
812245
2344
那么,下一个是什么?
13:34
Perhaps counterintuitively,
315
814589
1719
或许与直觉相反,
13:36
I'm guessing it's a visionary idea
316
816308
2312
我猜这是一个富有远见的想法,
13:38
from the late 1930s
317
818620
1854
从 30 年代末开始,
13:40
that's been revived every decade since:
318
820474
3160
每十年都会经历复兴:
13:43
autonomous vehicles.
319
823634
2014
自动驾驶汽车。
13:45
Now you're thinking, give me a break.
320
825648
1738
你现在会想,别逗我了。
13:47
How can a fancy version of cruise control
321
827386
3518
不同版本的巡航控制怎么可能
13:50
be profound?
322
830904
1700
是意义深远的呢?
13:52
Look, much of our world
323
832604
2124
是这样,我们世界的一大部分
13:54
has been designed around roads and transportation.
324
834728
3483
都是围绕着道路与交通设计的。
13:58
These were as essential to the success
325
838211
1875
这些东西是必不可少的,
14:00
of the Roman Empire
326
840086
1498
对于罗马帝国的成就,
14:01
as the interstate highway system
327
841584
1985
和作为州际公路系统
14:03
to the prosperity and development
328
843569
1794
对于美国的
14:05
of the United States.
329
845363
2210
繁荣与发展。
14:07
Today, these roads that interconnect our world
330
847573
3034
今天,这些把我们的世界连接起来的道路
14:10
are dominated by cars and trucks
331
850607
2098
以汽车和卡车占主导地位,
14:12
that have remained largely unchanged
332
852705
1868
这些东西在100年间在大体上
14:14
for 100 years.
333
854573
2571
没有太大的改变。
14:17
Although perhaps not obvious today,
334
857144
3259
虽然在今天可能并不明显,
14:20
autonomous vehicles will be the key technology
335
860403
4585
自驾车辆将是很关键的技术,
14:24
that enables us to redesign our cities
336
864988
3098
它能让我们重新设计我们的城市
14:28
and, by extension, civilization.
337
868086
2219
还有相关的,文明。
14:30
Here's why:
338
870305
1602
原因如下:
14:31
Once they become ubiquitous,
339
871907
1753
一旦它们普及起来,
14:33
each year, these vehicles will save
340
873660
2537
每年,这些车辆都将拯救
14:36
tens of thousands of lives in the United States alone
341
876197
3108
成千上万的生命,这仅仅在美国,
14:39
and a million globally.
342
879305
3127
在全世界将是数千万。
14:42
Automotive energy consumption and air pollution
343
882432
2899
汽车产业所消耗的能源
14:45
will be cut dramatically.
344
885331
2373
和污染的空气将大幅削减。
14:47
Much of the road congestion
345
887704
1405
很多在我们城市间
14:49
in and out of our cities will disappear.
346
889109
3810
发生的道路挤塞将会消失。
14:52
They will enable compelling new concepts
347
892919
2687
他们会允许一些令人叹服的新概念,
14:55
in how we design cities, work,
348
895606
2469
影响我们对城市、工作,
14:58
and the way we live.
349
898075
1937
和我们的生活方式的设计。
15:00
We will get where we're going faster
350
900012
2546
我们将能更快地到达目的地,
15:02
and society will recapture vast amounts
351
902558
2998
社会也将会夺回大量
15:05
of lost productivity
352
905556
1291
为了治理交通污染
15:06
now spent sitting in traffic basically polluting.
353
906847
3641
而失去了的生产力。
15:10
But why now? Why do we think this is ready?
354
910488
3273
但为什么是现在?我们为什么认为已经准备好了?
15:13
Because over the last 30 years,
355
913761
2194
因为在过去的30年间,
15:15
people from outside the automotive industry
356
915955
2048
从事汽车行业以外的人
15:18
have spent countless billions
357
918003
2108
花费了数亿的资金
15:20
creating the needed miracles,
358
920111
1735
创造所需要的奇迹,
15:21
but for entirely different purposes.
359
921846
2872
但目的确完全不同。
15:24
It took folks like DARPA, universities,
360
924718
2628
这是通过像DARPA、大学, (DARPA:美国国防部高级研究计划局)
15:27
and companies completely outside of the automotive industry
361
927346
3164
和与汽车产业完全无关的 企业的那些人
15:30
to notice that if you were clever about it,
362
930510
2301
来注意到,如果你机灵点,
15:32
autonomy could be done now.
363
932811
2530
自动驾驶现在可以实现了。
15:35
So what are the five miracles needed for autonomous vehicles?
364
935341
3383
那么自驾车辆所需的五个奇迹是什么?
15:38
One, you need to know
365
938724
1643
第一,你需要知道
15:40
where you are and exactly what time it is.
366
940367
2734
你所处的位置与现在的时间。
15:43
This was solved neatly by the GPS system,
367
943101
2408
这由GPS系统完美地解决了,
15:45
Global Positioning System,
368
945509
1312
全球定位系统,
15:46
that the U.S. Government put in place.
369
946821
2666
由美国政府落实了。
15:49
You need to know where all the roads are,
370
949487
2523
你需要知道所有的路都在哪里、
15:52
what the rules are, and where you're going.
371
952010
2903
有什么规则,和你要去哪。
15:54
The various needs of personal navigation systems,
372
954913
2583
对于私人导航系统的各种需求,
15:57
in-car navigation systems,
373
957496
1755
车载导航系统,
15:59
and web-based maps address this.
374
959251
3033
和网络的地图解决了这个问题。
16:02
You must have near-continuous communication
375
962284
2627
你必须拥有
与高性能计算网络和与附近其他人的
16:04
with high-performance computing networks
376
964911
1893
16:06
and with others nearby
377
966804
1670
几乎无间断的交流
16:08
to understand their intent.
378
968474
3315
才能了解他们的意图。
16:11
The wireless technologies developed for mobile devices,
379
971789
3108
为移动设备所开发的无线技术,
16:14
with some minor modifications,
380
974897
1793
加上一些小的修改,
16:16
are completely suitable to solve this.
381
976690
2959
完全可以解决这个问题。
16:19
You'll probably want some restricted roadways
382
979649
2490
若要开始,你可能需要一些
16:22
to get started
383
982139
1190
受限的道路,
16:23
that both society and its lawyers
384
983329
2478
从而让社会和律师们
16:25
agree are safe to use for this.
385
985807
1872
都同意它的使用是安全的。
16:27
This will start with the HOV lanes
386
987679
1849
这将从高乘载车道开始
16:29
and move from there.
387
989528
2133
然后扩张。
16:31
But finally, you need to recognize
388
991661
2551
但你最终需要辨认
16:34
people, signs and objects.
389
994212
2103
人、 路标和物体。
16:36
Machine vision, special sensors, and high-performance computing
390
996315
3054
机器视觉、特殊传感器,与高性能计算
16:39
can do a lot of this,
391
999369
1572
都可以做到一大部分,
16:40
but it turns out a lot is not good enough
392
1000941
2558
但事实证明一大部分是不够的,
16:43
when your family is on board.
393
1003499
1941
因为你的家人的安全也由它掌握着。
16:45
Occasionally, humans will need to do sense-making.
394
1005440
3521
人们将时不时地需要开动脑筋。
16:48
For this, you might actually have to wake up
395
1008961
3612
为此,你可能真的要去把你的乘客叫醒
16:52
your passenger and ask them what the hell
396
1012573
2096
并且询问他们
16:54
that big lump is in the middle of the road.
397
1014669
2802
马路中间的那一大块是什么鬼东西。
16:57
Not so bad, and it will give us a sense of purpose
398
1017487
2344
这不算太糟糕, 而且会在这个新的世界
16:59
in this new world.
399
1019831
1853
赋予我们一种使命感
17:01
Besides, once the first drivers explain
400
1021684
2740
再说了,一旦第一个司机解释
17:04
to their confused car
401
1024424
1326
给他们困惑的车说
17:05
that the giant chicken at the fork in the road
402
1025750
2666
那个挡在分岔口的巨型小鸡
17:08
is actually a restaurant,
403
1028416
1543
其实是一家餐厅,
17:09
and it's okay to keep driving,
404
1029959
2304
并告诉它没关系,继续开车,
17:12
every other car on the surface of the Earth
405
1032263
3420
从那时开始,地球表面上一半的车辆
17:15
will know that from that point on.
406
1035683
2922
都会了解这一点。
17:18
Five miracles, mostly delivered,
407
1038605
2263
五个奇迹,差不多都到齐了,
17:20
and now you just need a clear vision
408
1040868
1878
而现在你唯独需要一个清晰的视野,
17:22
of a better world filled with autonomous vehicles
409
1042746
2837
能看到一个遍地是自驾车辆的世界,
17:25
with seductively beautiful and new functional designs
410
1045583
3613
它们的设计散发着极具诱惑性的美丽 并拥有全新的性能,
17:29
plus a lot of money and hard work
411
1049196
2454
再加上大量的钱和辛苦的劳动,
17:31
to bring it home.
412
1051650
1596
才能把它变成现实。
17:33
The beginning is now only a handful of years away,
413
1053246
3022
它的开始相对现在只有几年的距离了,
17:36
and I predict that autonomous vehicles
414
1056268
1868
而且我预测自驾车辆
17:38
will permanently change our world
415
1058136
2071
将永久地改变我们的世界,
17:40
over the next several decades.
416
1060207
4184
就在接下来的几十年间。
17:44
In conclusion, I've come to believe
417
1064391
2652
作为总结,我开始相信
17:47
that the ingredients for the next Pantheons
418
1067043
2238
建造下一个万神殿的材料
17:49
are all around us,
419
1069281
1387
就在我们身边,
17:50
just waiting for visionary people
420
1070668
2187
只是在等待有远见的人,
17:52
with the broad knowledge,
421
1072855
1734
加上他们广泛的知识、
17:54
multidisciplinary skills,
422
1074589
1610
多学科的技能,
17:56
and intense passion
423
1076199
1868
和想要运用它们
17:58
to harness them to make their dreams a reality.
424
1078067
5086
从而把梦想变成现实的强烈热情。
18:03
But these people don't spontaneously
425
1083153
2496
但这些人不是自然地
18:05
pop into existence.
426
1085649
1339
就蹦出来了。
18:06
They need to be nurtured and encouraged
427
1086988
1839
他们需要从小开始
18:08
from when they're little kids.
428
1088827
1779
就加以培育和鼓励。
18:10
We need to love them and help them
429
1090606
1860
我们要爱护他们并且帮助他们
18:12
discover their passions.
430
1092466
1719
发现他们的热情所在。
18:14
We need to encourage them to work hard
431
1094185
2214
我们需要去鼓励他们努力工作
18:16
and help them understand that failure
432
1096399
2437
并帮助他们理解失败
18:18
is a necessary ingredient for success,
433
1098836
2871
是成功的必要因素,
18:21
as is perseverance.
434
1101707
2181
毅力也是如此。
18:23
We need to help them to find their own role models,
435
1103888
3098
我们需要帮助他们找到自己的榜样,
18:26
and give them the confidence to believe in themselves
436
1106986
2672
并给他们能够相信自己
18:29
and to believe that anything is possible,
437
1109658
2777
和一切皆有可能的信心,
18:32
and just as my grandpa did when he took me shopping for surplus,
438
1112435
3509
正如我爷爷的带着我去淘 盈余商品的时候,
18:35
and just as my parents did
439
1115944
1783
正如我的父母带我
18:37
when they took me to science museums,
440
1117727
2022
去科学博物馆的时候,
18:39
we need to encourage them to find their own path,
441
1119749
3281
我们需要鼓励他们去找自己的路,
18:43
even if it's very different from our own.
442
1123030
2657
即使它与我们自己的不同。
18:45
But a cautionary note:
443
1125687
1408
但要警惕的是:
18:47
We also need to periodically pry them away
444
1127095
2434
我们还需要定期地把他们
18:49
from their modern miracles,
445
1129529
1469
与现代的奇迹分开,
18:50
the computers, phones, tablets,
446
1130998
1971
比如计算机、 手机、 平板电脑、
18:52
game machines and TVs,
447
1132969
1594
游戏机和电视机,
18:54
take them out into the sunlight
448
1134563
2244
带他们去沐浴阳光
18:56
so they can experience both the natural
449
1136807
2129
从而让他们有机会体验自然
18:58
and design wonders of our world,
450
1138936
2897
与我们世界、我们星球,
19:01
our planet and our civilization.
451
1141833
2242
和我们文明的设计奇观。
19:04
If we don't, they won't understand
452
1144075
2927
如果我们不这样,他们就无法理解
19:07
what these precious things are
453
1147002
1882
这些珍贵的东西是什么,
19:08
that someday they will be resopnsible
454
1148884
2595
这些将是他们在未来某天有义务
19:11
for protecting and improving.
455
1151479
2282
去保护和改善的东西。
19:13
We also need them to understand
456
1153761
1643
我们还需要他们理解
19:15
something that doesn't seem adequately appreciated
457
1155404
3029
一件在我们越发依赖科技的世界里
19:18
in our increasingly tech-dependent world,
458
1158433
2463
似乎没有被充分领会的事,
19:20
that art and design
459
1160896
1683
就是艺术与设计
19:22
are not luxuries,
460
1162579
1913
不是奢侈品,
19:24
nor somehow incompatible
461
1164492
1826
也不是跟科学与工程
19:26
with science and engineering.
462
1166318
1869
无法兼容的。
19:28
They are in fact essential to what makes us special.
463
1168187
5575
事实上,只有它们才能让我们如此特别。
19:33
Someday, if you get the chance,
464
1173762
2515
某一天,如果你有机会,
19:36
perhaps you can take your kids
465
1176277
1537
或许你可以把你的孩子
19:37
to the actual Pantheon,
466
1177814
1771
带到真正的万神殿,
19:39
as we will our daughter Kira,
467
1179585
2660
就像我们会把我们的女儿Kira
19:42
to experience firsthand
468
1182245
2078
带去亲身体验
19:44
the power of that astonishing design,
469
1184323
4257
那令人震惊的设计所带来的力量,
19:48
which on one otherwise unremarkable day in Rome,
470
1188580
3744
这让在罗马本是平凡普通的一天,
19:52
reached 2,000 years into the future
471
1192324
3027
延伸到了未来两千年后,
19:55
to set the course for my life.
472
1195351
2658
并为我的人生设定了方向。
19:58
Thank you.
473
1198009
2131
谢谢。
20:00
(Applause)
474
1200140
4308
(掌声)
关于本网站

这个网站将向你介绍对学习英语有用的YouTube视频。你将看到来自世界各地的一流教师教授的英语课程。双击每个视频页面上显示的英文字幕,即可从那里播放视频。字幕会随着视频的播放而同步滚动。如果你有任何意见或要求,请使用此联系表与我们联系。

https://forms.gle/WvT1wiN1qDtmnspy7