Bran Ferren: To create for the ages, let's combine art and engineering

112,492 views ・ 2014-03-25

TED


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翻译人员: Phillip Feng 校对人员: Carrie Li
00:13
Good morning.
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早上好。
00:15
When I was a little boy,
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在我小时候
00:17
I had an experience that changed my life,
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有一个经历改变了我的一生,
00:20
and is in fact why I'm here today.
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这也是我站在这的原因。
00:23
That one moment
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在那一刻
00:25
profoundly affected how I think about
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我对艺术、设计和工程的看法
00:27
art, design and engineering.
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被深深地改变了。
00:30
As background, I was fortunate enough to grow up
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关于背景,我很幸运地生长在
00:33
in a family of loving and talented artists
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位于世界最大城市之一的
00:36
in one of the world's great cities.
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一个充满爱和有才艺术家的家庭。
00:39
My dad, John Ferren, who died when I was 15,
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我的父亲,John Ferren, 在我15岁的时候去世了,
00:43
was an artist by both passion and profession,
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他曾是一个热爱艺术的艺术家,
00:46
as is my mom, Rae.
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同我母亲Rae一样。
00:49
He was one of the New York School
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他曾是纽约抽象表现主义画家
00:51
abstract expressionists who,
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的一员,
00:52
together with his contemporaries,
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他和他的同龄人一起,
00:55
invented American modern art,
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创造了美国现代艺术,
00:58
and contributed to moving the American zeitgeist
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并且为在20世纪把美国的时代思潮
01:01
towards modernism in the 20th century.
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推向现代主义做出了贡献。
01:05
Isn't it remarkable that, after thousands of years
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在具象派艺术盛行了几千年以后,
01:08
of people doing mostly representational art,
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相比之下,
现代艺术就像只存在了15分钟,
01:12
that modern art, comparatively speaking,
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01:14
is about 15 minutes old,
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如今卻非常普及,
01:16
yet now pervasive.
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这难道不是卓越非凡的吗?
01:18
As with many other important innovations,
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其它许多重要的创新也是如此,
01:20
those radical ideas required no new technology,
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那些激进的理念无需任何新技术,
01:24
just fresh thinking and a willingness to experiment,
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只需要创新的思维和敢于尝试的意愿,
01:27
plus resiliency in the face of near-universal criticism
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加上能够承受几乎所有人批判与反对
01:31
and rejection.
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的恢复能力。
01:32
In our home, art was everywhere.
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在我们家里,艺术无处不在。
01:35
It was like oxygen,
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它就像氧气,
01:36
around us and necessary for life.
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环绕着我们,也是我们生命的需要。
01:40
As I watched him paint,
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我看着父亲绘画的时候,
01:41
Dad taught me that art
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他教导我说艺术
01:44
was not about being decorative,
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并不是用来装饰的,
01:46
but was a different way of communicating ideas,
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而是交流思想的另一种方法,
01:49
and in fact one that could bridge the worlds
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确切的说,这种方法可以把知识和见解
01:51
of knowledge and insight.
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这两个世界给联系起来。
01:54
Given this rich artistic environment,
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在这样一个充满艺术气息的环境里,
01:56
you'd assume that I would have been compelled
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你会认为我会被迫着
01:58
to go into the family business,
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去从事家族企业,
02:00
but no.
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但你错了。
02:03
I followed the path of most kids
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我像那些生来就是为了
02:04
who are genetically programmed
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逼家长们发疯的小孩子一样,
02:06
to make their parents crazy.
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选择了另一条路。
02:08
I had no interest in becoming an artist,
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我对成为一名艺术家毫无兴趣,
02:10
certainly not a painter.
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更别谈画家。
02:12
What I did love was electronics and machines --
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我当时爱的是电器和机械--
02:15
taking them apart, building new ones,
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把他们拆开,建造新的,
02:17
and making them work.
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并让它们运作。
02:19
Fortunately, my family also had engineers in it,
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幸运的是,我的家庭中也有工程师,
02:23
and with my parents,
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他们和我的父母,
02:24
these were my first role models.
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都是我最早的榜样。
02:27
What they all had in common
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他们所有人的共同点
02:28
was they worked very, very hard.
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就是都非常努力地工作。
02:31
My grandpa owned and operated a sheet metal
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我的祖父曾在布鲁克林拥有一个
02:33
kitchen cabinet factory in Brooklyn.
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他自己运作的钣金橱柜厂。
02:36
On weekends, we would go together to Cortlandt Street,
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在周末的时候,我们会一起去Cortlandt 街,
02:39
which was New York City's radio row.
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现在已经是纽约城的广播站了。
02:42
There we would explore massive piles
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在那里我们会探索成堆的
02:45
of surplus electronics,
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盈余的电子产品,
02:46
and for a few bucks bring home treasures
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和一些物美价廉的宝贝,
02:48
like Norden bombsights
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比如诺登投弹瞄准器
02:50
and parts from the first IBM tube-based computers.
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和IBM最早生产的管座电脑的零件。
02:54
I found these objects both useful and fascinating.
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我发现这些东西很有用也很吸引人。
02:57
I learned about engineering and how things worked,
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我认识了工程与一些东西的运作原理,
03:00
not at school
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不是从学校,
03:01
but by taking apart and studying
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而是通过拆卸和研究
03:03
these fabulously complex devices.
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这些极度复杂的装置。
03:06
I did this for hours every day,
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我每天都要在这上面花上好几个小时,
03:08
apparently avoiding electrocution.
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显然还要防止自己被电死。
03:11
Life was good.
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美好的生活。
03:13
However, every summer, sadly,
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然而令人悲哀的是,每个夏天,
03:15
the machines got left behind
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那些机器都会被抛下,
03:17
while my parents and I traveled overseas
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因为我父母会带着我出国
03:20
to experience history, art and design.
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去体验历史、艺术和设计。
03:23
We visited the great museums and historic buildings
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我们参观了位于欧洲和中东的
03:26
of both Europe and the Middle East,
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大博物馆和历史性建筑,
03:27
but to encourage my growing interest
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但为了激励我对科学和科技
03:30
in science and technology,
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日益增长的兴趣,
03:31
they would simply drop me off in places
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他们会简单的把我放到
03:34
like the London Science Museum,
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像伦敦科学博物馆之类的地方,
03:36
where I would wander endlessly for hours by myself
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在那里我会花几个小时无止尽的独自游走,
03:40
studying the history of science and technology.
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学习与科学和科技相关的历史。
03:44
Then, when I was about nine years old,
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然后,在我差不多九岁的时候,
03:47
we went to Rome.
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我们到了罗马。
03:49
On one particularly hot summer day,
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在一个格外炎热的夏天,
03:51
we visited a drum-shaped building that from the outside
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我们参观了一个外观并不起眼的
03:54
was not particularly interesting.
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鼓形建筑。
03:57
My dad said it was called the Pantheon,
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我父亲告诉我它被称为万神殿,
03:59
a temple for all of the gods.
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一个为诸神而建的神殿。
04:01
It didn't look all that special from the outside,
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从外面它看起来并不特别,
04:04
as I said, but when we walked inside,
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就像我之前说的, 但当我们走进去的时候,
04:06
I was immediately struck by three things:
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我瞬间被三样东西震惊了:
04:09
First of all, it was pleasantly cool
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首先,室内是令人舒服的凉爽,
04:13
despite the oppressive heat outside.
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尽管室外闷热。
04:15
It was very dark, the only source of light
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这里面非常暗,唯一的光线来源
04:17
being an big open hole in the roof.
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是屋顶的一个大洞。
04:20
Dad explained that this wasn't a big open hole,
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父亲解释说这不是一个大洞,
04:22
but it was called the oculus,
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而是被称为眼洞窗,
04:24
an eye to the heavens.
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天堂的一只眼睛。
04:26
And there was something about this place,
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还有,这个地方有些东西,
04:28
I didn't know why, that just felt special.
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我不知道为什么,就是感觉很特别。
04:31
As we walked to the center of the room,
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当我们走到房间的中央,
04:33
I looked up at the heavens through the oculus.
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我通过眼洞窗仰望天堂。
04:36
This was the first church that I'd been to
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这是我到过的第一个
04:39
that provided an unrestricted view
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为神与人之间提供了
04:41
between God and man.
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直接视野的教堂。
04:44
But I wondered, what about when it rained?
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但我当时好奇,如果下雨了怎么办?
04:47
Dad may have called this an oculus,
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虽然我父亲把它称为眼洞窗,
04:49
but it was, in fact, a big hole in the roof.
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但它实际上就是房顶的一个大洞。
04:52
I looked down and saw floor drains
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我低头看到了地面的排水管
04:54
had been cut into the stone floor.
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是切在地面的石头上的。
04:57
As I became more accustomed to the dark,
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当我变得更适应于黑暗,
04:59
I was able to make out details of the floor
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我逐渐能够看清地板与周围墙壁
05:01
and the surrounding walls.
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上的细节了。
05:03
No big deal here, just the same statuary stuff
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这儿没什么大不了的,只是一些在罗马
05:06
that we'd seen all over Rome.
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随处可见的雕像罢了。
05:08
In fact, it looked like the Appian Way
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实际上,它看上去像亚庇古道,
05:09
marble salesman showed up
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那个大理石推销员带着他的样本书出现,
05:11
with his sample book, showed it to Hadrian,
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展示给了哈德良,
05:14
and Hadrian said, "We'll take all of it."
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然后哈德良说:"我们全都要了”的地方。
05:17
(Laughter)
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(笑声)
05:18
But the ceiling was amazing.
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但天花板还是很惊艳的。
05:22
It looked like a Buckminster Fuller geodesic dome.
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它看上去像Buckminster Fuller的一个穹顶建筑。
05:24
I'd seen these before,
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我曾经见过这些,
05:26
and Bucky was friends with my dad.
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Bucky也是我父亲的朋友。
05:28
It was modern, high-tech, impressive,
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它很现代、 高科技的、 令人印象深刻,
05:31
a huge 142-foot clear span
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142 英尺的巨大净跨距
05:34
which, not coincidentally, was exactly its height.
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也并非巧合的,刚好是是它自身的高度。
05:37
I loved this place.
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我爱这个地方。
05:38
It was really beautiful and unlike anything I'd ever seen before,
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它非常的美丽而且是我前所未见的,
05:42
so I asked my dad, "When was this built?"
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所以我问我父亲:"这是什么时候修建的?"
05:45
He said, "About 2,000 years ago."
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他说:"大约 2000 年前"。
05:48
And I said, "No, I mean, the roof."
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我说:"不,我的意思是,屋顶"。
05:51
You see, I assumed that this was a modern roof
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是这样,我把它默认为一个现代的屋顶,
05:53
that had been put on because the original
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把它放在那是因为原来的屋顶
05:55
was destroyed in some long-past war.
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在很久以前的一场战争中被摧毁了。
05:58
He said, "It's the original roof."
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他说,"它就是原始的屋顶"。
06:02
That moment changed my life,
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那一刻,我的一生被改变了,
06:04
and I can remember it as if it were yesterday.
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而且依然令我记忆犹新。
06:07
For the first time, I realized people were smart
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这是我第一次意识到人类在2000多年前
06:10
2,000 years ago. (Laughter)
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就很聪明了。(笑声)
06:12
This had never crossed my mind.
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这点我以前从未想到。
06:14
I mean, to me, the pyramids at Giza,
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我是说,在我看来,吉萨的金字塔,
06:18
we visited those the year before,
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我们去年参观过,
06:20
and sure they're impressive, nice enough design,
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它们确实令人印象深刻、很好的设计,
06:23
but look, give me an unlimited budget,
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不过,给我无限的预算、
06:25
20,000 to 40,000 laborers, and about 10 to 20 years
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两万到四万个工人和大概10 至20 年
06:29
to cut and drag stone blocks across the countryside,
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在乡村里切割和拖动石头块,
06:33
and I'll build you pyramids too.
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我也能给你修出金字塔。
06:35
But no amount of brute force
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但是再多的蛮力也无法
06:38
gets you the dome of the Pantheon,
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创造出万神殿的圆顶,
06:41
not 2,000 years ago, nor today.
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两千年前不行,现在也不行。
06:44
And incidentally, it is still the largest
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顺便说一下,它到目前为止仍是
06:47
unreinforced concrete dome that's ever been built.
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历史上最大的未加固的混凝土圆顶。
06:51
To build the Pantheon took some miracles.
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万神殿的修建包含了一些奇迹。
06:54
By miracles, I mean things that are
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我所说的奇迹是指
06:56
technically barely possible,
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技术上几乎不可能的、
06:59
very high-risk, and might not be
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极度高的风险、并且可能
07:02
actually accomplishable at this moment in time,
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在这一时间段根本无法完成的,
07:04
certainly not by you.
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当然更不是由你。
07:09
For example, here are some of the Pantheon's miracles.
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例如,下面是万神殿的一些奇迹。
07:12
To make it even structurally possible,
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仅仅要让它的结构可行,
07:15
they had to invent super-strong concrete,
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他们不得不创造超强的混凝土,
07:17
and to control weight,
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还得控制重量,
07:19
varied the density of the aggregate
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这是通过在搭建圆顶的过程中
07:21
as they worked their way up the dome.
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不断改变混合物的密度而达到的。
07:24
For strength and lightness, the dome structure
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对于强度和轻度,圆顶的结构
07:26
used five rings of coffers,
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使用了花格镶板的五个圆环,
07:28
each of diminishing size,
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每个的大小递减,
07:30
which imparts a dramatic forced perspective
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因此为设计赋予了一个
引人注目的强迫视图。
07:33
to the design.
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它里面非常凉快
07:35
It was wonderfully cool inside
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07:36
because of its huge thermal mass,
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的原因是源于它庞大的热质量,
07:39
natural convection of air rising up
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自然对流的空气上升
07:41
through the oculus,
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通过眼洞窗,
07:42
and a Venturi effect when wind blows across
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并在风吹过屋顶时
07:45
the top of the building.
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产生文丘里效应。
07:47
I discovered for the first time that light itself
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我第一次发现光线本身
07:51
has substance.
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是有实质的。
07:53
The shaft of light beaming through the oculus
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透过眼洞窗的光束
07:56
was both beautiful and palpable,
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是美丽的,也是可感知的,
07:58
and I realized for the first time
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并且让我第一次意识到
08:00
that light could be designed.
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光是可以被设计的。
08:02
Further, that of all of the forms of design,
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进一步而言,所有形式的设计,
08:07
visual design,
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视觉设计,
08:08
they were all kind of irrelevant without it,
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如果没有它貌似就有些不切实际了,
08:10
because without light, you can't see any of them.
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因为如果没有光,那些东西你都看不见。
08:14
I also realized that I wasn't the first person
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我还意识到我并不是第一个
08:17
to think that this place was really special.
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认为这个地方很特别的人。
08:20
It survived gravity, barbarians, looters, developers
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它经受住了重力、 野蛮人、 掠夺者、 开发人员
08:24
and the ravages of time to become
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和时间的蹂躏,从而成为了
08:26
what I believe is the longest
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我相信是历史上
08:27
continuously occupied building in history.
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被持续使用最久的建筑。
08:30
Largely because of that visit,
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主要是因为那次参观,
08:33
I came to understand that,
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我开始明白了,
08:34
contrary to what I was being told in school,
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与学校教导我的相反,
08:37
the worlds of art and design
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艺术和设计的世界
08:39
were not, in fact, incompatible
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事实上并不是
08:41
with science and engineering.
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不跟科学与工程兼容的。
08:43
I realized, when combined,
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我意识到,当两者结合时,
08:45
you could create things that were amazing
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你可以创造惊出人的东西,
08:47
that couldn't be done in either domain alone.
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而这些只在单个领域是完成不了的。
08:50
But in school, with few exceptions,
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但在学校,除了少数例外,
08:53
they were treated as separate worlds,
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它们被视为独立的世界,
08:55
and they still are.
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现在依然如此。
08:57
My teachers told me that I had to get serious
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我老师说我必须正经地
08:59
and focus on one or the other.
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选择一个领域。
09:02
However, urging me to specialize
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然而,催促我专门化
09:05
only caused me to really appreciate those polymaths
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只使得我更加感激那些博学者
09:08
like Michelangelo, Leonardo da Vinci,
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例如 达 · 芬奇、 米开朗基罗、
09:12
Benjamin Franklin,
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本杰明 · 富兰克林,
09:14
people who did exactly the opposite.
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那些做了完全相反的人。
09:16
And this led me to embrace
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这让我接受
09:19
and want to be in both worlds.
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并且想要存在于两个世界。
09:21
So then how do these projects of unprecedented creative vision and technical complexity
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那么这些前所未有的创造性视野 和复杂的技术
09:27
like the Pantheon actually happen?
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比如万神殿,是怎样出现的呢?
09:30
Someone themselves, perhaps Hadrian,
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一个人自身,或许同哈德良一样,
09:34
needed a brilliant creative vision.
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需要绝妙的创造性视野。
09:37
They also needed the storytelling and leadership skills
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他们还需要能够资助并且执行它的
09:40
necessary to fund and execute it,
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叙述能力与领导能力,
09:42
and a mastery of science and technology
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和对科学与技术的掌握
09:45
with the ability and knowhow
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加上能够把现有的创新推动更远
09:47
to push existing innovations even farther.
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的能力与诀窍。
09:51
It is my belief that to create these rare game changers
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我相信这些稀有的颠覆者
09:55
requires you to pull off at least five miracles.
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都至少需要创造五个奇迹。
10:00
The problem is, no matter how talented,
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问题是,无论你是多么有才、
10:02
rich or smart you are,
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富于或是聪明,
10:04
you only get one to one and a half miracles.
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你只能得到一个至一个半的奇迹。
10:07
That's it. That's the quota.
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就这么多,这就是你的限额。
10:09
Then you run out of time, money, enthusiasm,
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然后你就会耗尽你的时间、金钱、热情,
10:11
whatever.
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无论你有的是什么。
10:13
Remember, most people can't even imagine
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记住,大多数人连想都不敢想
10:15
one of these technical miracles,
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这些技术奇迹的其中一个,
10:17
and you need at least five to make a Pantheon.
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而你至少需要实现五个 才能建成万神殿
10:20
In my experience, these rare visionaries
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以我的经验,在这些罕见的预言家中,
10:23
who can think across the worlds of art,
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能够跨越艺术、设计、
10:24
design and engineering
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和工程的世界思考的人,
10:26
have the ability to notice
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就有能力察觉
10:28
when others have provided enough of the miracles
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什么时候其他人提供了足够多的奇迹
10:31
to bring the goal within reach.
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以至于目标是可以实现的了。
10:34
Driven by the clarity of their vision,
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被他们透彻的远见所驱使,
10:36
they summon the courage and determination
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他们鼓了起勇气和决心
10:39
to deliver the remaining miracles
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来实现剩余的那些奇迹,
10:41
and they often take what other people think to be
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并且他们往往把他人认为是
10:44
insurmountable obstacles
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无法逾越的障碍
10:46
and turn them into features.
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转化成为特色。
10:48
Take the oculus of the Pantheon.
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以万神殿的眼洞窗为例。
10:51
By insisting that it be in the design,
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1898
由于坚持把它归于设计之中,
10:53
it meant you couldn't use much of the structural technology
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就意味着你不能大量运用为 罗马的半圆拱形门
10:56
that had been developed for Roman arches.
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所研制的建筑科技。
10:59
However, by instead embracing it
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然而,通过去欣然接受它
11:02
and rethinking weight and stress distribution,
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并且反思重量与压力的分布,
11:04
they came up with a design that only works
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他们找到了一种设计,
11:07
if there's a big hole in the roof.
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只在当屋顶有个大洞的时候才适用。
11:09
That done, you now get the aesthetic
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事成之后,你就得到了光线、降温,
11:12
and design benefits of light, cooling
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关键是那个能与天堂直接相对
11:16
and that critical direct connection with the heavens.
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的审美与设计上的好处。
11:19
Not bad.
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还不错。
11:21
These people not only believed
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这些人不只是相信
11:23
that the impossible can be done,
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不可能可以被实现,
11:26
but that it must be done.
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而是必须被实现。
11:28
Enough ancient history.
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远古的历史就说到这。
11:30
What are some recent examples of innovations
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当代有哪些关于
11:34
that combine creative design
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结合了创意性设计
11:35
and technological advances in a way so profound
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和科技进步的创新,如此深刻,
11:39
that they will be remembered
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它们直到一千年以后
11:40
a thousand years from now?
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还会被记住?
11:42
Well, putting a man on the moon was a good one,
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说起来,把一个人送上月球是挺好,
11:45
and returning him safely to Earth wasn't bad either.
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让他安全地回来也不错。
11:48
Talk about one giant leap:
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谈到巨大的飞跃:
11:50
It's hard to imagine a more profound moment
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在人类历史上很难想象到
11:53
in human history
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一个比我们初次离开地球
11:54
than when we first left our world
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去踏入另一个世界
11:56
to set foot on another.
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更深刻的时刻了。
11:58
So what came after the moon?
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登月后还有什么呢?
12:01
One is tempted to say that today's pantheon
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有人禁不住会说,如今的万神殿
12:03
is the Internet,
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是互联网,
12:05
but I actually think that's quite wrong,
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但我确认为这不太对,
12:07
or at least it's only part of the story.
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或者说这最多只是故事的一部分。
12:10
The Internet isn't a Pantheon.
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互联网不是一个万神殿。
12:13
It's more like the invention of concrete:
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它更像是混凝土的发明:
12:15
important, absolutely necessary
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很重要、对建造万神殿
12:18
to build the Pantheon,
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有绝对的必要,
12:19
and enduring,
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并且让它持久,
12:21
but entirely insufficient by itself.
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3191
但单独拿出来是没有用的。
12:24
However, just as the technology of concrete
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然而,就像混凝土技术
12:27
was critical in realization of the Pantheon,
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是实现万神殿的关键,
12:30
new designers will use the technologies of the Internet
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新的设计师们将使用互联网技术
12:34
to create novel concepts that will endure.
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来打造新颖,并且能够持久的概念。
12:37
The smartphone is a perfect example.
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智能手机是一个完美的例子。
12:39
Soon the majority of people on the planet
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很快,地球上绝大多数的人
12:41
will have one,
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都将拥有一台,
12:42
and the idea of connecting everyone
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然后把每个人跟知识与他人
12:44
to both knowledge and each other will endure.
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联系起来的点子就会持久。
12:48
So what's next?
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那么,下一个是什么?
12:49
What imminent advance will be the equivalent of the Pantheon?
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有那些临近了的发展将能与万 神殿相提并论?
12:52
Thinking about this,
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想到这里,
12:54
I rejected many very plausible
299
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2547
我淘汰了很多非常值得鼓励
12:56
and dramatic breakthroughs to come,
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和戏剧性的潜在突破,
12:58
such as curing cancer.
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比如治疗癌症。
13:00
Why? Because Pantheons are anchored
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为什么呢?因为万神殿被固定为了
13:04
in designed physical objects,
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被设计出的有形物体,
13:07
ones that inspire by simply seeing
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2322
是那些人们单是通过观看和体验
13:09
and experiencing them,
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就能受到启发的东西,
13:10
and will continue to do so indefinitely.
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并且会这样无期限地延续下去。
13:13
It is a different kind of language, like art.
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它是一种不同的语言,就像艺术。
13:18
These other vital contributions that extend life
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另外这些为延长寿命和减轻病痛 所做出的贡献
13:21
and relieve suffering are, of course, critical,
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当然也是至关重要,
13:23
and fantastic,
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1687
并且精妙绝伦的,
13:25
but they're part of the continuum of
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1793
但它们是我们对
13:27
our overall knowledge and technology,
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2512
知识和科技的总体认识的一部分延伸,
13:29
like the Internet.
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就像互联网。
13:32
So what is next?
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那么,下一个是什么?
13:34
Perhaps counterintuitively,
315
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1719
或许与直觉相反,
13:36
I'm guessing it's a visionary idea
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2312
我猜这是一个富有远见的想法,
13:38
from the late 1930s
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1854
从 30 年代末开始,
13:40
that's been revived every decade since:
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每十年都会经历复兴:
13:43
autonomous vehicles.
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2014
自动驾驶汽车。
13:45
Now you're thinking, give me a break.
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你现在会想,别逗我了。
13:47
How can a fancy version of cruise control
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3518
不同版本的巡航控制怎么可能
13:50
be profound?
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1700
是意义深远的呢?
13:52
Look, much of our world
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2124
是这样,我们世界的一大部分
13:54
has been designed around roads and transportation.
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都是围绕着道路与交通设计的。
13:58
These were as essential to the success
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1875
这些东西是必不可少的,
14:00
of the Roman Empire
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1498
对于罗马帝国的成就,
14:01
as the interstate highway system
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1985
和作为州际公路系统
14:03
to the prosperity and development
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1794
对于美国的
14:05
of the United States.
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繁荣与发展。
14:07
Today, these roads that interconnect our world
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3034
今天,这些把我们的世界连接起来的道路
14:10
are dominated by cars and trucks
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以汽车和卡车占主导地位,
14:12
that have remained largely unchanged
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1868
这些东西在100年间在大体上
14:14
for 100 years.
333
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2571
没有太大的改变。
14:17
Although perhaps not obvious today,
334
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3259
虽然在今天可能并不明显,
14:20
autonomous vehicles will be the key technology
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自驾车辆将是很关键的技术,
14:24
that enables us to redesign our cities
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3098
它能让我们重新设计我们的城市
14:28
and, by extension, civilization.
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2219
还有相关的,文明。
14:30
Here's why:
338
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1602
原因如下:
14:31
Once they become ubiquitous,
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1753
一旦它们普及起来,
14:33
each year, these vehicles will save
340
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2537
每年,这些车辆都将拯救
14:36
tens of thousands of lives in the United States alone
341
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3108
成千上万的生命,这仅仅在美国,
14:39
and a million globally.
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3127
在全世界将是数千万。
14:42
Automotive energy consumption and air pollution
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汽车产业所消耗的能源
14:45
will be cut dramatically.
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2373
和污染的空气将大幅削减。
14:47
Much of the road congestion
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1405
很多在我们城市间
14:49
in and out of our cities will disappear.
346
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3810
发生的道路挤塞将会消失。
14:52
They will enable compelling new concepts
347
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2687
他们会允许一些令人叹服的新概念,
14:55
in how we design cities, work,
348
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2469
影响我们对城市、工作,
14:58
and the way we live.
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1937
和我们的生活方式的设计。
15:00
We will get where we're going faster
350
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2546
我们将能更快地到达目的地,
15:02
and society will recapture vast amounts
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2998
社会也将会夺回大量
15:05
of lost productivity
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1291
为了治理交通污染
15:06
now spent sitting in traffic basically polluting.
353
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3641
而失去了的生产力。
15:10
But why now? Why do we think this is ready?
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3273
但为什么是现在?我们为什么认为已经准备好了?
15:13
Because over the last 30 years,
355
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2194
因为在过去的30年间,
15:15
people from outside the automotive industry
356
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2048
从事汽车行业以外的人
15:18
have spent countless billions
357
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2108
花费了数亿的资金
15:20
creating the needed miracles,
358
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1735
创造所需要的奇迹,
15:21
but for entirely different purposes.
359
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2872
但目的确完全不同。
15:24
It took folks like DARPA, universities,
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2628
这是通过像DARPA、大学, (DARPA:美国国防部高级研究计划局)
15:27
and companies completely outside of the automotive industry
361
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3164
和与汽车产业完全无关的 企业的那些人
15:30
to notice that if you were clever about it,
362
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2301
来注意到,如果你机灵点,
15:32
autonomy could be done now.
363
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2530
自动驾驶现在可以实现了。
15:35
So what are the five miracles needed for autonomous vehicles?
364
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3383
那么自驾车辆所需的五个奇迹是什么?
15:38
One, you need to know
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1643
第一,你需要知道
15:40
where you are and exactly what time it is.
366
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2734
你所处的位置与现在的时间。
15:43
This was solved neatly by the GPS system,
367
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2408
这由GPS系统完美地解决了,
15:45
Global Positioning System,
368
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1312
全球定位系统,
15:46
that the U.S. Government put in place.
369
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2666
由美国政府落实了。
15:49
You need to know where all the roads are,
370
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2523
你需要知道所有的路都在哪里、
15:52
what the rules are, and where you're going.
371
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2903
有什么规则,和你要去哪。
15:54
The various needs of personal navigation systems,
372
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2583
对于私人导航系统的各种需求,
15:57
in-car navigation systems,
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1755
车载导航系统,
15:59
and web-based maps address this.
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3033
和网络的地图解决了这个问题。
16:02
You must have near-continuous communication
375
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2627
你必须拥有
与高性能计算网络和与附近其他人的
16:04
with high-performance computing networks
376
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1893
16:06
and with others nearby
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几乎无间断的交流
16:08
to understand their intent.
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才能了解他们的意图。
16:11
The wireless technologies developed for mobile devices,
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为移动设备所开发的无线技术,
16:14
with some minor modifications,
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加上一些小的修改,
16:16
are completely suitable to solve this.
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完全可以解决这个问题。
16:19
You'll probably want some restricted roadways
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若要开始,你可能需要一些
16:22
to get started
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受限的道路,
16:23
that both society and its lawyers
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从而让社会和律师们
16:25
agree are safe to use for this.
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都同意它的使用是安全的。
16:27
This will start with the HOV lanes
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这将从高乘载车道开始
16:29
and move from there.
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2133
然后扩张。
16:31
But finally, you need to recognize
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但你最终需要辨认
16:34
people, signs and objects.
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人、 路标和物体。
16:36
Machine vision, special sensors, and high-performance computing
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机器视觉、特殊传感器,与高性能计算
16:39
can do a lot of this,
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都可以做到一大部分,
16:40
but it turns out a lot is not good enough
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但事实证明一大部分是不够的,
16:43
when your family is on board.
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因为你的家人的安全也由它掌握着。
16:45
Occasionally, humans will need to do sense-making.
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人们将时不时地需要开动脑筋。
16:48
For this, you might actually have to wake up
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为此,你可能真的要去把你的乘客叫醒
16:52
your passenger and ask them what the hell
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并且询问他们
16:54
that big lump is in the middle of the road.
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马路中间的那一大块是什么鬼东西。
16:57
Not so bad, and it will give us a sense of purpose
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这不算太糟糕, 而且会在这个新的世界
16:59
in this new world.
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赋予我们一种使命感
17:01
Besides, once the first drivers explain
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2740
再说了,一旦第一个司机解释
17:04
to their confused car
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1326
给他们困惑的车说
17:05
that the giant chicken at the fork in the road
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2666
那个挡在分岔口的巨型小鸡
17:08
is actually a restaurant,
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1543
其实是一家餐厅,
17:09
and it's okay to keep driving,
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2304
并告诉它没关系,继续开车,
17:12
every other car on the surface of the Earth
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3420
从那时开始,地球表面上一半的车辆
17:15
will know that from that point on.
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2922
都会了解这一点。
17:18
Five miracles, mostly delivered,
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2263
五个奇迹,差不多都到齐了,
17:20
and now you just need a clear vision
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1878
而现在你唯独需要一个清晰的视野,
17:22
of a better world filled with autonomous vehicles
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2837
能看到一个遍地是自驾车辆的世界,
17:25
with seductively beautiful and new functional designs
410
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3613
它们的设计散发着极具诱惑性的美丽 并拥有全新的性能,
17:29
plus a lot of money and hard work
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2454
再加上大量的钱和辛苦的劳动,
17:31
to bring it home.
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1596
才能把它变成现实。
17:33
The beginning is now only a handful of years away,
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3022
它的开始相对现在只有几年的距离了,
17:36
and I predict that autonomous vehicles
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1868
而且我预测自驾车辆
17:38
will permanently change our world
415
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2071
将永久地改变我们的世界,
17:40
over the next several decades.
416
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4184
就在接下来的几十年间。
17:44
In conclusion, I've come to believe
417
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2652
作为总结,我开始相信
17:47
that the ingredients for the next Pantheons
418
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2238
建造下一个万神殿的材料
17:49
are all around us,
419
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1387
就在我们身边,
17:50
just waiting for visionary people
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2187
只是在等待有远见的人,
17:52
with the broad knowledge,
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1734
加上他们广泛的知识、
17:54
multidisciplinary skills,
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1610
多学科的技能,
17:56
and intense passion
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1868
和想要运用它们
17:58
to harness them to make their dreams a reality.
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5086
从而把梦想变成现实的强烈热情。
18:03
But these people don't spontaneously
425
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2496
但这些人不是自然地
18:05
pop into existence.
426
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1339
就蹦出来了。
18:06
They need to be nurtured and encouraged
427
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1839
他们需要从小开始
18:08
from when they're little kids.
428
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1779
就加以培育和鼓励。
18:10
We need to love them and help them
429
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1860
我们要爱护他们并且帮助他们
18:12
discover their passions.
430
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1719
发现他们的热情所在。
18:14
We need to encourage them to work hard
431
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2214
我们需要去鼓励他们努力工作
18:16
and help them understand that failure
432
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2437
并帮助他们理解失败
18:18
is a necessary ingredient for success,
433
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2871
是成功的必要因素,
18:21
as is perseverance.
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2181
毅力也是如此。
18:23
We need to help them to find their own role models,
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3098
我们需要帮助他们找到自己的榜样,
18:26
and give them the confidence to believe in themselves
436
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2672
并给他们能够相信自己
18:29
and to believe that anything is possible,
437
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2777
和一切皆有可能的信心,
18:32
and just as my grandpa did when he took me shopping for surplus,
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3509
正如我爷爷的带着我去淘 盈余商品的时候,
18:35
and just as my parents did
439
1115944
1783
正如我的父母带我
18:37
when they took me to science museums,
440
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2022
去科学博物馆的时候,
18:39
we need to encourage them to find their own path,
441
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3281
我们需要鼓励他们去找自己的路,
18:43
even if it's very different from our own.
442
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2657
即使它与我们自己的不同。
18:45
But a cautionary note:
443
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1408
但要警惕的是:
18:47
We also need to periodically pry them away
444
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2434
我们还需要定期地把他们
18:49
from their modern miracles,
445
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1469
与现代的奇迹分开,
18:50
the computers, phones, tablets,
446
1130998
1971
比如计算机、 手机、 平板电脑、
18:52
game machines and TVs,
447
1132969
1594
游戏机和电视机,
18:54
take them out into the sunlight
448
1134563
2244
带他们去沐浴阳光
18:56
so they can experience both the natural
449
1136807
2129
从而让他们有机会体验自然
18:58
and design wonders of our world,
450
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2897
与我们世界、我们星球,
19:01
our planet and our civilization.
451
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2242
和我们文明的设计奇观。
19:04
If we don't, they won't understand
452
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2927
如果我们不这样,他们就无法理解
19:07
what these precious things are
453
1147002
1882
这些珍贵的东西是什么,
19:08
that someday they will be resopnsible
454
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2595
这些将是他们在未来某天有义务
19:11
for protecting and improving.
455
1151479
2282
去保护和改善的东西。
19:13
We also need them to understand
456
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1643
我们还需要他们理解
19:15
something that doesn't seem adequately appreciated
457
1155404
3029
一件在我们越发依赖科技的世界里
19:18
in our increasingly tech-dependent world,
458
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2463
似乎没有被充分领会的事,
19:20
that art and design
459
1160896
1683
就是艺术与设计
19:22
are not luxuries,
460
1162579
1913
不是奢侈品,
19:24
nor somehow incompatible
461
1164492
1826
也不是跟科学与工程
19:26
with science and engineering.
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1869
无法兼容的。
19:28
They are in fact essential to what makes us special.
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5575
事实上,只有它们才能让我们如此特别。
19:33
Someday, if you get the chance,
464
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2515
某一天,如果你有机会,
19:36
perhaps you can take your kids
465
1176277
1537
或许你可以把你的孩子
19:37
to the actual Pantheon,
466
1177814
1771
带到真正的万神殿,
19:39
as we will our daughter Kira,
467
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2660
就像我们会把我们的女儿Kira
19:42
to experience firsthand
468
1182245
2078
带去亲身体验
19:44
the power of that astonishing design,
469
1184323
4257
那令人震惊的设计所带来的力量,
19:48
which on one otherwise unremarkable day in Rome,
470
1188580
3744
这让在罗马本是平凡普通的一天,
19:52
reached 2,000 years into the future
471
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3027
延伸到了未来两千年后,
19:55
to set the course for my life.
472
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2658
并为我的人生设定了方向。
19:58
Thank you.
473
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2131
谢谢。
20:00
(Applause)
474
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4308
(掌声)
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