Bran Ferren: To create for the ages, let's combine art and engineering

111,090 views ・ 2014-03-25

TED


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譯者: Willy Feng 審譯者: Jen-Huei Wu
00:13
Good morning.
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早安。
00:15
When I was a little boy,
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當我還小時,
00:17
I had an experience that changed my life,
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我經歷一個改變我人生的經驗,
00:20
and is in fact why I'm here today.
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也是為何我會站在這裡的原因。
00:23
That one moment
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那個經驗
00:25
profoundly affected how I think about
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深深地影響我如何看待
00:27
art, design and engineering.
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藝術,設計和工程。
00:30
As background, I was fortunate enough to grow up
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我很幸運地在世界最偉大的城市之一,
00:33
in a family of loving and talented artists
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在一個充滿愛和有天賦藝術家的家庭中
00:36
in one of the world's great cities.
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長大成人。
00:39
My dad, John Ferren, who died when I was 15,
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我的父親,約翰·費倫,在我 15 歲時過世
00:43
was an artist by both passion and profession,
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跟我的母親,瑞,一樣,
00:46
as is my mom, Rae.
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是一位兼具熱情和專業的藝術家。
00:49
He was one of the New York School
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他是約紐畫派 (New York School)
00:51
abstract expressionists who,
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抽象表現主義畫家,
00:52
together with his contemporaries,
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融合他的當代思維,
00:55
invented American modern art,
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創造了美國現代藝術,
00:58
and contributed to moving the American zeitgeist
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引領美國的時代精神
01:01
towards modernism in the 20th century.
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進入到 20 世紀的現代主義。
01:05
Isn't it remarkable that, after thousands of years
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這不是很偉大嗎?數千年以來,
01:08
of people doing mostly representational art,
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人類藝術一直大部分都是寫實主義,
01:12
that modern art, comparatively speaking,
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而現代藝術,相對來說,
01:14
is about 15 minutes old,
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大約只有 15 分鐘的生命
01:16
yet now pervasive.
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而仍然在漫延中。
01:18
As with many other important innovations,
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就像其它重要的創新一樣,
01:20
those radical ideas required no new technology,
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這些全新的想法不需要新的技術,
01:24
just fresh thinking and a willingness to experiment,
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只要重新思索和有嘗試的意願,
01:27
plus resiliency in the face of near-universal criticism
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加上能面對幾乎一面倒的評判
01:31
and rejection.
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和拒絕的韌性。
01:32
In our home, art was everywhere.
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在我們家裡,到處都是藝術,
01:35
It was like oxygen,
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就像氧氣一樣,
01:36
around us and necessary for life.
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圍繞著我們,是生命的必需品。
01:40
As I watched him paint,
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當我看著我父親作畫,
01:41
Dad taught me that art
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他告訴我
01:44
was not about being decorative,
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藝術不是裝飾用,
01:46
but was a different way of communicating ideas,
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而是想法交流的另一種形式,
01:49
and in fact one that could bridge the worlds
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事實上,它是連結世界的
01:51
of knowledge and insight.
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知識和眼光的橋梁。
01:54
Given this rich artistic environment,
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在這個充滿藝術氣息的環境,
01:56
you'd assume that I would have been compelled
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你或許認為我會不得已的
01:58
to go into the family business,
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加入這個家族的事業。
02:00
but no.
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但我並沒有。
02:03
I followed the path of most kids
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我跟其它的小孩一樣,
02:04
who are genetically programmed
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從基因中就被設定好
02:06
to make their parents crazy.
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是會讓父每抓狂的。
02:08
I had no interest in becoming an artist,
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我對成為藝術家一點興趣也沒有,
02:10
certainly not a painter.
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更不用說畫家了。
02:12
What I did love was electronics and machines --
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我喜愛的是電子和機械,
02:15
taking them apart, building new ones,
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拆解,組裝成新的,
02:17
and making them work.
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讓它們能運作。
02:19
Fortunately, my family also had engineers in it,
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幸運地,我的家族裡有搞工程的,
02:23
and with my parents,
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和我父母一樣,
02:24
these were my first role models.
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他們是我的人生導師。
02:27
What they all had in common
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他們都有一個共通點,
02:28
was they worked very, very hard.
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就是非常非常努力地工作。
02:31
My grandpa owned and operated a sheet metal
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我的爺爺擁在布魯克林有一座
02:33
kitchen cabinet factory in Brooklyn.
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餐具櫃的金屬工廠。
02:36
On weekends, we would go together to Cortlandt Street,
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在週末,我們會一起去特克蘭街 (Cortlandt Street),
02:39
which was New York City's radio row.
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那是約紐的電子商街,
02:42
There we would explore massive piles
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我們在成堆的
02:45
of surplus electronics,
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電子零件中挖寶,
02:46
and for a few bucks bring home treasures
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用幾塊錢把一些寶買回家,
02:48
like Norden bombsights
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像是諾頓投彈瞄準器,
02:50
and parts from the first IBM tube-based computers.
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和 IBM 第一台真空管電腦的零件。
02:54
I found these objects both useful and fascinating.
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我覺得這些東西有用又有趣,
02:57
I learned about engineering and how things worked,
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我學會了工程學和其原理,
03:00
not at school
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不是在學校,
03:01
but by taking apart and studying
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而且在拆解和研究
03:03
these fabulously complex devices.
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這些絕妙的複雜設備。
03:06
I did this for hours every day,
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我每天花上數小時做這些事,
03:08
apparently avoiding electrocution.
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還好我沒有觸電身亡,
03:11
Life was good.
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生命是美好的。
03:13
However, every summer, sadly,
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但是令人難過地,每個暑假,
03:15
the machines got left behind
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這些機械離我而去,
03:17
while my parents and I traveled overseas
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因為我父母帶我出國旅遊,
03:20
to experience history, art and design.
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體驗歷史,藝術和設計。
03:23
We visited the great museums and historic buildings
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我們在歐洲和中東參觀
03:26
of both Europe and the Middle East,
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博物館和歷史建築。
03:27
but to encourage my growing interest
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但為了鼓勵我在科學
03:30
in science and technology,
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和工藝上的興趣,
03:31
they would simply drop me off in places
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他們會讓我去像是
03:34
like the London Science Museum,
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倫敦科學博物館之類的地方。
03:36
where I would wander endlessly for hours by myself
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我在那裡可以待上一整天,
03:40
studying the history of science and technology.
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研究科學工藝的歷史。
03:44
Then, when I was about nine years old,
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在我大約九歲的時候,
03:47
we went to Rome.
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我們去了羅馬。
03:49
On one particularly hot summer day,
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在炎熱夏天的某一天,
03:51
we visited a drum-shaped building that from the outside
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我們參觀了一棟像鼓一樣的建築,
03:54
was not particularly interesting.
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外觀上一點也不起眼。
03:57
My dad said it was called the Pantheon,
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我爸說這是萬神廟 (Pantheon),
03:59
a temple for all of the gods.
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眾神的廟宇。
04:01
It didn't look all that special from the outside,
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就像我說的,從外面看來一點也不特別,
04:04
as I said, but when we walked inside,
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但當我們走進去時,
04:06
I was immediately struck by three things:
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我馬上被三件事情震驚到:
04:09
First of all, it was pleasantly cool
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第一,跟外頭的熱度相比,
04:13
despite the oppressive heat outside.
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裡面是透心涼快。
04:15
It was very dark, the only source of light
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裡頭非常的暗,唯一的光源,
04:17
being an big open hole in the roof.
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來自天花板的一個大洞。
04:20
Dad explained that this wasn't a big open hole,
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父親解釋,那不是一個大洞,
04:22
but it was called the oculus,
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它叫作「眼睛」 (oculus),
04:24
an eye to the heavens.
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能見到天堂的眼睛。
04:26
And there was something about this place,
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這個地方有些什麼特別之處,
04:28
I didn't know why, that just felt special.
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我不知道是什麼,就是覺得特別。
04:31
As we walked to the center of the room,
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當我們走到房屋的中央時,
04:33
I looked up at the heavens through the oculus.
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我透過「眼睛」向上觀看天空,
04:36
This was the first church that I'd been to
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這是我到過的第一個教堂,
04:39
that provided an unrestricted view
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在上帝與人間,
04:41
between God and man.
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提供一個無遮蔽的視野。
04:44
But I wondered, what about when it rained?
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但我很好奇,下雨時會怎麼樣?
04:47
Dad may have called this an oculus,
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父親或許稱它是「眼睛」,
04:49
but it was, in fact, a big hole in the roof.
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但它實際上是一個天花板的大洞。
04:52
I looked down and saw floor drains
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我低頭看到地板排水孔,
04:54
had been cut into the stone floor.
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鑲在石頭地板中。
04:57
As I became more accustomed to the dark,
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當我更加適應裡頭的黑暗,
04:59
I was able to make out details of the floor
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我能更加看清楚地板和
05:01
and the surrounding walls.
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周圍牆壁的細節。
05:03
No big deal here, just the same statuary stuff
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沒啥特別的,跟我們在羅馬其它地方
05:06
that we'd seen all over Rome.
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看到的雕像一樣。
05:08
In fact, it looked like the Appian Way
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事實上,看起來像是亞壁古道 (Appian Way)。
05:09
marble salesman showed up
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大理石雕刻的商人
05:11
with his sample book, showed it to Hadrian,
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拿著他的目錄給哈德良看。 (註:哈德良為羅馬帝國五賢帝之一)
05:14
and Hadrian said, "We'll take all of it."
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哈德良說「我們全買了。」
05:17
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
05:18
But the ceiling was amazing.
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但天花板令人驚奇,
05:22
It looked like a Buckminster Fuller geodesic dome.
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看起來像是巴克敏斯特·富勒的球形屋頂。 (註:巴克敏斯特·富勒是美國建築家)
05:24
I'd seen these before,
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我以前見過這種的,
05:26
and Bucky was friends with my dad.
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巴克是我父親的朋友。
05:28
It was modern, high-tech, impressive,
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現代的,高技科,令人印深刻,
05:31
a huge 142-foot clear span
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巨大的,142 英呎,沒有任何樑柱,
05:34
which, not coincidentally, was exactly its height.
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不是巧合的,剛好就這麼高。
05:37
I loved this place.
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我喜歡這個地方。
05:38
It was really beautiful and unlike anything I'd ever seen before,
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它真的很美,而且跟其它地方不一樣。
05:42
so I asked my dad, "When was this built?"
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我就問我父親 "這是何時建造的?”
05:45
He said, "About 2,000 years ago."
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他回答 "大約兩千年前左右。”
05:48
And I said, "No, I mean, the roof."
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我說 "不,我指的是屋頂。”
05:51
You see, I assumed that this was a modern roof
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看,我以為這是一個現代的屋頂,
05:53
that had been put on because the original
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原有的屋頂因被戰火摧毀,
05:55
was destroyed in some long-past war.
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而再另外蓋一個。
05:58
He said, "It's the original roof."
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我父親說 "這是原本的屋頂。”
06:02
That moment changed my life,
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從此刻我的人生就改變了,
06:04
and I can remember it as if it were yesterday.
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就像昨天一樣記得很清楚。
06:07
For the first time, I realized people were smart
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第一次,我認知到兩千年前的人類
06:10
2,000 years ago. (Laughter)
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是如此聰明的。(笑聲)
06:12
This had never crossed my mind.
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這事在我腦中揮之不去。
06:14
I mean, to me, the pyramids at Giza,
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我的意思是,在埃及吉薩的金字塔
06:18
we visited those the year before,
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前一年我們去看過了,
06:20
and sure they're impressive, nice enough design,
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當然是很壯觀,完美的設計,
06:23
but look, give me an unlimited budget,
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但只要我有夠多的預算,
06:25
20,000 to 40,000 laborers, and about 10 to 20 years
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兩萬到四萬個工人,花十到二十年,
06:29
to cut and drag stone blocks across the countryside,
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在各地把石塊切割運過來,
06:33
and I'll build you pyramids too.
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我也可以造一座金字塔。
06:35
But no amount of brute force
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但只是靠蠻力,
06:38
gets you the dome of the Pantheon,
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無論是兩千年前或是今天,
06:41
not 2,000 years ago, nor today.
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你無法建一個萬神廟的穹頂。
06:44
And incidentally, it is still the largest
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而且它是現在最大的
06:47
unreinforced concrete dome that's ever been built.
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未經強化過的混泥土穹頂。
06:51
To build the Pantheon took some miracles.
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建造萬神廟需要一些奇蹟。
06:54
By miracles, I mean things that are
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我所謂的奇蹟,是指
06:56
technically barely possible,
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在技術上近乎是不可能的,
06:59
very high-risk, and might not be
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高風險的,就算是今天,
07:02
actually accomplishable at this moment in time,
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也不見得可以完成的,
07:04
certainly not by you.
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當然也不可能是由你完成的。
07:09
For example, here are some of the Pantheon's miracles.
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舉幾個萬神廟的奇蹟:
07:12
To make it even structurally possible,
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要建造這樣一個的架構,
07:15
they had to invent super-strong concrete,
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必須要有非常強力的混凝土,
07:17
and to control weight,
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而且要控制好重量,
07:19
varied the density of the aggregate
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隨著建造的高度,
07:21
as they worked their way up the dome.
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要調整混凝土的密度。
07:24
For strength and lightness, the dome structure
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達到需要的強度和輕量,穹頂的結構使用了
07:26
used five rings of coffers,
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五圈的鑲板,
07:28
each of diminishing size,
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每一個的尺寸逐漸縮小,
07:30
which imparts a dramatic forced perspective
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依設計來看,
07:33
to the design.
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分散掉絕大部分的壓力。
07:35
It was wonderfully cool inside
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穹頂下異常的涼爽,
07:36
because of its huge thermal mass,
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因為其內部巨大的空間,
07:39
natural convection of air rising up
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上升氣流可經由 ”眼睛” 排出
07:41
through the oculus,
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的自然對流,
07:42
and a Venturi effect when wind blows across
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和外部空氣吹過圓頂的
07:45
the top of the building.
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文丘里效應 (Venturi effect)。
07:47
I discovered for the first time that light itself
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我第一次發現
07:51
has substance.
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光是物質的。
07:53
The shaft of light beaming through the oculus
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經 "眼睛" 進來的一道光束,
07:56
was both beautiful and palpable,
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是如此美麗及可觸摸的,
07:58
and I realized for the first time
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我第一次發現
08:00
that light could be designed.
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1901
光線也可以被設計的。
08:02
Further, that of all of the forms of design,
185
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更甚,這裡所有形式的設計,
08:07
visual design,
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視覺設計,
08:08
they were all kind of irrelevant without it,
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全都脫離不了光線,
08:10
because without light, you can't see any of them.
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因為沒有了光,你啥也看不到。
08:14
I also realized that I wasn't the first person
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我也發現我不是第一位
08:17
to think that this place was really special.
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認為這個地方是如此的特別。
08:20
It survived gravity, barbarians, looters, developers
191
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它撐過重力、野蠻人、掠奪者、建造者,
08:24
and the ravages of time to become
192
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1899
還有時間的蹂躪,
08:26
what I believe is the longest
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成為我認為是
08:27
continuously occupied building in history.
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史上最長壽的建築。
08:30
Largely because of that visit,
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因為這次的造訪,
08:33
I came to understand that,
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我開始了解到,
08:34
contrary to what I was being told in school,
197
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2639
相對於我在學校所學到的,
08:37
the worlds of art and design
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2029
藝術和設計的世界
08:39
were not, in fact, incompatible
199
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2016
實際上,並不會不相容於
08:41
with science and engineering.
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科學工藝的世界。
08:43
I realized, when combined,
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我發現當這兩個結合時,
08:45
you could create things that were amazing
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你可以創造出在單一領域中
08:47
that couldn't be done in either domain alone.
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無法達到的效果。
08:50
But in school, with few exceptions,
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但在學校裡,除了少數例外,
08:53
they were treated as separate worlds,
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它們是被區分開來的,
08:55
and they still are.
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現在也還是這樣。
08:57
My teachers told me that I had to get serious
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我的老師們都告訴我要認真
08:59
and focus on one or the other.
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2173
專注在其中一個領域,
09:02
However, urging me to specialize
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3095
但是,力促我只精通一個領域,
09:05
only caused me to really appreciate those polymaths
210
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3310
讓我對憧景那像博學的人們
09:08
like Michelangelo, Leonardo da Vinci,
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4150
像米開朗基羅、達文西
09:12
Benjamin Franklin,
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本傑明·富蘭克林,
09:14
people who did exactly the opposite.
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他們都不只是精通單一領域。
09:16
And this led me to embrace
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2189
這讓我更加嚮往
09:19
and want to be in both worlds.
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同時身處在兩種領域。
09:21
So then how do these projects of unprecedented creative vision and technical complexity
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所以像萬神廟這種史無前例的創新和精妙
09:27
like the Pantheon actually happen?
217
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2494
是如何達成的呢?
09:30
Someone themselves, perhaps Hadrian,
218
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3928
有些人,像是哈德良 (Hadrian),
09:34
needed a brilliant creative vision.
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3191
需要有傑出的創新願景,
09:37
They also needed the storytelling and leadership skills
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2793
他們也需要說故事和領導的才能,
09:40
necessary to fund and execute it,
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來實現這個願景,
09:42
and a mastery of science and technology
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還有在科學工藝上的專精,
09:45
with the ability and knowhow
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專業能力和技術,
09:47
to push existing innovations even farther.
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來延伸現有的創新。
09:51
It is my belief that to create these rare game changers
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我相信,提供這種的規則改變者,
09:55
requires you to pull off at least five miracles.
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需要你至少五個奇蹟。
10:00
The problem is, no matter how talented,
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但問題是,無論你多聰明,
10:02
rich or smart you are,
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1732
或是多有錢,
10:04
you only get one to one and a half miracles.
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你只能頂多有一個半的奇蹟。
10:07
That's it. That's the quota.
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1782
就是只有這麼多了。
10:09
Then you run out of time, money, enthusiasm,
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2613
你會耗盡你的時間、金錢、熱情,
10:11
whatever.
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還有其它的一切。
10:13
Remember, most people can't even imagine
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記得,大部分的人都沒有辦法
10:15
one of these technical miracles,
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1907
想像任何一種工藝上的奇蹟,
10:17
and you need at least five to make a Pantheon.
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3109
而你卻需要至少五個奇蹟來建造萬神廟。
10:20
In my experience, these rare visionaries
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在我的經驗中,只有少數的夢想家
10:23
who can think across the worlds of art,
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1837
能遊走在藝術設計
10:24
design and engineering
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1827
和科學工藝之間,
10:26
have the ability to notice
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2202
他們能夠注意到
10:28
when others have provided enough of the miracles
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2717
何時其它方面的奇蹟
10:31
to bring the goal within reach.
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2556
已經足夠來實現這個夢想。
10:34
Driven by the clarity of their vision,
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2637
對於他們願景的明確了解,
10:36
they summon the courage and determination
243
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2310
他們喚起勇氣和意志力,
10:39
to deliver the remaining miracles
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2097
創造剩下需要的奇蹟,
10:41
and they often take what other people think to be
245
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3550
他們通常把其它人認為
10:44
insurmountable obstacles
246
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2046
不可跨越的障礙,
10:46
and turn them into features.
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1785
化為願景的特色。
10:48
Take the oculus of the Pantheon.
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2927
以萬神廟的”眼睛”為例,
10:51
By insisting that it be in the design,
249
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1898
要堅持這樣的設計,
10:53
it meant you couldn't use much of the structural technology
250
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2873
你勢必無法使用
10:56
that had been developed for Roman arches.
251
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2974
在羅馬拱門上發展出來的結構技術。
10:59
However, by instead embracing it
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2898
然而,相對於
11:02
and rethinking weight and stress distribution,
253
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2588
重新去思考重量和壓力的分佈,
11:04
they came up with a design that only works
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2482
他們用一種僅適用於天花板有一個洞的
11:07
if there's a big hole in the roof.
255
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1904
全新設計。
11:09
That done, you now get the aesthetic
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3007
完成後,不僅兼具美學,
11:12
and design benefits of light, cooling
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4381
設計上還帶來光線和涼風效果,
11:16
and that critical direct connection with the heavens.
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3300
還有能直接連通天堂的管道。
11:19
Not bad.
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679848
2044
很不賴吧。
11:21
These people not only believed
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2061
這些人們不只是相信
11:23
that the impossible can be done,
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2056
不可能的事可以被完成,
11:26
but that it must be done.
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2826
而且是一定要完成。
11:28
Enough ancient history.
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2101
歷史故事就先到此為止。
11:30
What are some recent examples of innovations
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3133
近代有什麼創新的事物,
11:34
that combine creative design
265
694069
1879
是結合了獨特的設計
11:35
and technological advances in a way so profound
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3243
和先進的技術,
11:39
that they will be remembered
267
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1329
可以讓人們在千年之後
11:40
a thousand years from now?
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1833
依舊會記得呢?
11:42
Well, putting a man on the moon was a good one,
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3096
把人送上月球是很了不起的,
11:45
and returning him safely to Earth wasn't bad either.
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3017
然後再把他平安地帶回地球,也是一樣。
11:48
Talk about one giant leap:
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2492
談到人類的一大步:
11:50
It's hard to imagine a more profound moment
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2448
很難想像在人類的歷史上,
11:53
in human history
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1312
有什麼可以比得上
11:54
than when we first left our world
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2173
我們第一次遠離我們自己的世界
11:56
to set foot on another.
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1891
踏上另一個世界的那一刻。
11:58
So what came after the moon?
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2221
那在登月之後,會是什麼呢?
12:01
One is tempted to say that today's pantheon
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2808
有人可能會說今天的萬神廟
12:03
is the Internet,
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1661
是網際網路,
12:05
but I actually think that's quite wrong,
279
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2469
但我真的認為這是錯的,
12:07
or at least it's only part of the story.
280
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2855
或是說這只是一小部分而已。
12:10
The Internet isn't a Pantheon.
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2516
網際網路不是萬神廟,
12:13
It's more like the invention of concrete:
282
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2591
比較像是混凝土的發明,
12:15
important, absolutely necessary
283
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2575
對於建造萬神廟
12:18
to build the Pantheon,
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1440
是很重要,不可或缺的,
12:19
and enduring,
285
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1356
而且可以流傳後世,
12:21
but entirely insufficient by itself.
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3191
但只有它是不夠的。
12:24
However, just as the technology of concrete
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2932
正如混凝土的技術
12:27
was critical in realization of the Pantheon,
288
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3587
對萬神廟的建造是很關鍵的,
12:30
new designers will use the technologies of the Internet
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3215
創新者使用網際網路
12:34
to create novel concepts that will endure.
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創造能流傳後世的全新事物。
12:37
The smartphone is a perfect example.
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2058
智慧型手機是一個絕佳的例子。
12:39
Soon the majority of people on the planet
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1745
很快速地,地球上大部分的人們
12:41
will have one,
293
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1334
都會有一支,
12:42
and the idea of connecting everyone
294
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2401
把人們聯繫起來
12:44
to both knowledge and each other will endure.
295
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3250
和訊息連結的想法會流傳下去。
12:48
So what's next?
296
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1308
那下一步呢?
12:49
What imminent advance will be the equivalent of the Pantheon?
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3406
同等於萬神廟的下一個指標在哪?
12:52
Thinking about this,
298
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1435
想想看,
12:54
I rejected many very plausible
299
774334
2547
我不會接受一些似是而非
12:56
and dramatic breakthroughs to come,
300
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1896
或重大突破的事物作答案,
12:58
such as curing cancer.
301
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2017
例是治癒癌症。
13:00
Why? Because Pantheons are anchored
302
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3338
為什麼?因為萬神廟
13:04
in designed physical objects,
303
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2935
是建造在很多實體的設計之上,
13:07
ones that inspire by simply seeing
304
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2322
每一個都來自由簡單的觀察
13:09
and experiencing them,
305
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1420
和不斷地體現,
13:10
and will continue to do so indefinitely.
306
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2882
而且可以無窮盡的流傳下去。
13:13
It is a different kind of language, like art.
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4573
這像是藝術一樣難以用語言表達,
13:18
These other vital contributions that extend life
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2772
這些拓展生命及釋放痛苦的貢獻,
13:21
and relieve suffering are, of course, critical,
309
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2693
當然是不可缺少的重要,
13:23
and fantastic,
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1687
而且很華麗,
13:25
but they're part of the continuum of
311
805416
1793
但它們只是
13:27
our overall knowledge and technology,
312
807209
2512
我們全部知識技術的一部分,
13:29
like the Internet.
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2524
網際網路也是。
13:32
So what is next?
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812245
2344
那下一個會是什麼?
13:34
Perhaps counterintuitively,
315
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1719
這有些違反直覺,
13:36
I'm guessing it's a visionary idea
316
816308
2312
但我猜是一個自1930年代末期
13:38
from the late 1930s
317
818620
1854
經由每個世代的修改的
13:40
that's been revived every decade since:
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820474
3160
一個願景:
13:43
autonomous vehicles.
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2014
自動駕駛車輛。
13:45
Now you're thinking, give me a break.
320
825648
1738
你或許想,拜託,
13:47
How can a fancy version of cruise control
321
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3518
怎麼會是一個比較潮的
13:50
be profound?
322
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1700
巡航定速系統?
13:52
Look, much of our world
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832604
2124
但你仔細看,
13:54
has been designed around roads and transportation.
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3483
大部分我們的世界是設計在道路和運輸之上,
13:58
These were as essential to the success
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1875
道路之於
14:00
of the Roman Empire
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840086
1498
羅馬帝國的興起,
14:01
as the interstate highway system
327
841584
1985
就像州際高速公路
14:03
to the prosperity and development
328
843569
1794
之於美國的
14:05
of the United States.
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2210
繁榮和現代化。
14:07
Today, these roads that interconnect our world
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847573
3034
現今,這些串連我們世界的道路
14:10
are dominated by cars and trucks
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2098
主要都是汽車和卡車在使用,
14:12
that have remained largely unchanged
332
852705
1868
而這個基本上一百年來
14:14
for 100 years.
333
854573
2571
都沒有改變。
14:17
Although perhaps not obvious today,
334
857144
3259
或許現今不是很明顯,
14:20
autonomous vehicles will be the key technology
335
860403
4585
但自動駕駛車輛會是關鍵的科技
14:24
that enables us to redesign our cities
336
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3098
讓我們重新設計我們的城市,
14:28
and, by extension, civilization.
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2219
更進一步地,改變文化。
14:30
Here's why:
338
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1602
為什麼呢?
14:31
Once they become ubiquitous,
339
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1753
一旦普及之後,
14:33
each year, these vehicles will save
340
873660
2537
每年可以減少
14:36
tens of thousands of lives in the United States alone
341
876197
3108
美國上萬的生命的死亡,
14:39
and a million globally.
342
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3127
全球有上百萬的生命。
14:42
Automotive energy consumption and air pollution
343
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2899
汽車引擎的油耗和空污,
14:45
will be cut dramatically.
344
885331
2373
會大量的減少。
14:47
Much of the road congestion
345
887704
1405
大部分在進出城市
14:49
in and out of our cities will disappear.
346
889109
3810
交通擁塞將會消失。
14:52
They will enable compelling new concepts
347
892919
2687
這些會引發新的思維
14:55
in how we design cities, work,
348
895606
2469
重新設計我們的設計,職場,
14:58
and the way we live.
349
898075
1937
以及我們的生活。
15:00
We will get where we're going faster
350
900012
2546
我們可以更快速到達目的地,
15:02
and society will recapture vast amounts
351
902558
2998
社會可以拾回大量的
15:05
of lost productivity
352
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1291
資源損耗,
15:06
now spent sitting in traffic basically polluting.
353
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3641
現在花在車陣中的時間只是在污染世界。
15:10
But why now? Why do we think this is ready?
354
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3273
但為何是現在?為何現在才能實現?
15:13
Because over the last 30 years,
355
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2194
因為過去三十年,
15:15
people from outside the automotive industry
356
915955
2048
在汽車業以外的人們,
15:18
have spent countless billions
357
918003
2108
花費上億的金錢
15:20
creating the needed miracles,
358
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1735
創造出必要的奇蹟,
15:21
but for entirely different purposes.
359
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2872
但當初是為了不同的目的。
15:24
It took folks like DARPA, universities,
360
924718
2628
這讓像是 DARPA、大學、公司企業, (註:DARPA 是美國國防高等研究計劃署)
15:27
and companies completely outside of the automotive industry
361
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3164
完全置身在汽車業界之外的人們,
15:30
to notice that if you were clever about it,
362
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2301
如果夠聰明,就會了解到
15:32
autonomy could be done now.
363
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2530
自動汽車現在可以被實現。
15:35
So what are the five miracles needed for autonomous vehicles?
364
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3383
什麼是自動汽車需要的五個奇蹟呢?
15:38
One, you need to know
365
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1643
第一個,你需要知道
15:40
where you are and exactly what time it is.
366
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2734
現在你確切的時間和位置。
15:43
This was solved neatly by the GPS system,
367
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2408
這個可以經由 GPS 解決,
15:45
Global Positioning System,
368
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1312
全球定位系統,
15:46
that the U.S. Government put in place.
369
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2666
是由美國政府發展的。
15:49
You need to know where all the roads are,
370
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2523
你需要知道道路在哪裡,
15:52
what the rules are, and where you're going.
371
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2903
道路規則是什麼,你要往哪裡去。
15:54
The various needs of personal navigation systems,
372
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2583
這些可以由導航系統,
15:57
in-car navigation systems,
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1755
車內導航系統,
15:59
and web-based maps address this.
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和網路上的地圖來達成。
16:02
You must have near-continuous communication
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你需要近端即時通訊
16:04
with high-performance computing networks
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配合高效能的電腦運算,
16:06
and with others nearby
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來了解附近車輛
16:08
to understand their intent.
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的動態。
16:11
The wireless technologies developed for mobile devices,
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為手機發展的無線技術
16:14
with some minor modifications,
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加上一點些微的改造,
16:16
are completely suitable to solve this.
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就可以完成的解決這件事。
16:19
You'll probably want some restricted roadways
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你或許想到
16:22
to get started
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1190
在社會和法律上
16:23
that both society and its lawyers
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2478
都可以接受的
16:25
agree are safe to use for this.
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1872
一些道路限制。
16:27
This will start with the HOV lanes
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1849
像是高乘載車道
16:29
and move from there.
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2133
和其它的延伸。
16:31
But finally, you need to recognize
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2551
但最終,你需要能辨認
16:34
people, signs and objects.
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2103
人群、號誌和物體。
16:36
Machine vision, special sensors, and high-performance computing
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3054
機械視覺、特殊感應器、高效能的電腦運算
16:39
can do a lot of this,
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可以做到這些,
16:40
but it turns out a lot is not good enough
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但這還是不太夠,
16:43
when your family is on board.
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尤其是當你的家人在車上。
16:45
Occasionally, humans will need to do sense-making.
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偶爾,人類需要給予一些決定。
16:48
For this, you might actually have to wake up
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你或許需要喚醒乘客
16:52
your passenger and ask them what the hell
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2096
詢問他們
16:54
that big lump is in the middle of the road.
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剛剛那個在路中間的顛簸是怎麼回事。
16:57
Not so bad, and it will give us a sense of purpose
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2344
這還不賴,我們已經有一些
16:59
in this new world.
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1853
新世界的輪廓了。
17:01
Besides, once the first drivers explain
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2740
此外,一旦駕駛
17:04
to their confused car
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1326
向那困惑的汽車解釋
17:05
that the giant chicken at the fork in the road
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2666
路上那隻在叉子上的巨大的雞
17:08
is actually a restaurant,
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1543
只是一家餐廳,
17:09
and it's okay to keep driving,
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2304
它就會安心的繼續行駛,
17:12
every other car on the surface of the Earth
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3420
而地表上的所有其它汽車
17:15
will know that from that point on.
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2922
也將從此了解這件事。
17:18
Five miracles, mostly delivered,
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2263
第五個奇蹟,已近乎完成,
17:20
and now you just need a clear vision
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1878
是需要一個明確的願景,
17:22
of a better world filled with autonomous vehicles
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2837
一個佈滿自動汽車的美好世界,
17:25
with seductively beautiful and new functional designs
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3613
吸引人和功能完善的設計,
17:29
plus a lot of money and hard work
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2454
加上許多資金和努力,
17:31
to bring it home.
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1596
可以把它開回家。
17:33
The beginning is now only a handful of years away,
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3022
只需幾年的時間就可以實現了,
17:36
and I predict that autonomous vehicles
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1868
我預期自動駕駛汽車
17:38
will permanently change our world
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2071
將會永遠的改變我們的世界
17:40
over the next several decades.
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4184
延續好幾十年。
17:44
In conclusion, I've come to believe
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2652
總而言之,我開始相信
17:47
that the ingredients for the next Pantheons
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2238
促成下一個萬神廟的各項要素
17:49
are all around us,
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1387
已經在我們的周圍,
17:50
just waiting for visionary people
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2187
等待有願景的人們,
17:52
with the broad knowledge,
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1734
同時具備寬廣的知識,
17:54
multidisciplinary skills,
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1074589
1610
跨領域的技術,
17:56
and intense passion
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1868
及極端的熱情,
17:58
to harness them to make their dreams a reality.
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5086
讓這個夢想成真。
18:03
But these people don't spontaneously
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2496
但這樣的人才並不會
18:05
pop into existence.
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1339
自動地無中生有。
18:06
They need to be nurtured and encouraged
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1839
他們必須從小時候
18:08
from when they're little kids.
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1779
就被良好的教養和鼓勵。
18:10
We need to love them and help them
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1090606
1860
我們需要愛護並幫助他們
18:12
discover their passions.
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1719
去發掘他們的熱情。
18:14
We need to encourage them to work hard
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1094185
2214
我們需要鼓勵他們全力投入,
18:16
and help them understand that failure
432
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2437
幫助他們了解到
18:18
is a necessary ingredient for success,
433
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2871
失敗為成功之母,
18:21
as is perseverance.
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2181
並且要持續不懈。
18:23
We need to help them to find their own role models,
435
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3098
我們需要幫助他們找到他們的典範,
18:26
and give them the confidence to believe in themselves
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2672
給予他們自信,相信自己,
18:29
and to believe that anything is possible,
437
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2777
相信任何都是可能的,
18:32
and just as my grandpa did when he took me shopping for surplus,
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1112435
3509
就像我祖父帶我去購買雜貨,
18:35
and just as my parents did
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1115944
1783
就像我父母
18:37
when they took me to science museums,
440
1117727
2022
帶我去科學博物館,
18:39
we need to encourage them to find their own path,
441
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3281
我們需要鼓勵他們去找到他們自己的道路,
18:43
even if it's very different from our own.
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2657
即使這是非常困難。
18:45
But a cautionary note:
443
1125687
1408
但有一個注意事項:
18:47
We also need to periodically pry them away
444
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2434
我們需要定期的把他們
18:49
from their modern miracles,
445
1129529
1469
從現代的奇蹟拉開來,
18:50
the computers, phones, tablets,
446
1130998
1971
電腦、手機、平板、
18:52
game machines and TVs,
447
1132969
1594
電玩、電視,
18:54
take them out into the sunlight
448
1134563
2244
帶他們到外面,
18:56
so they can experience both the natural
449
1136807
2129
讓他們感受到
18:58
and design wonders of our world,
450
1138936
2897
我們的世界、星球和文化
19:01
our planet and our civilization.
451
1141833
2242
的美好設計。
19:04
If we don't, they won't understand
452
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2927
如果不這樣做,他們不會了解
19:07
what these precious things are
453
1147002
1882
這些資產的珍貴,
19:08
that someday they will be resopnsible
454
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2595
而有一天會輪到他們
19:11
for protecting and improving.
455
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2282
來保護和改善。
19:13
We also need them to understand
456
1153761
1643
我們也需要他們能了解
19:15
something that doesn't seem adequately appreciated
457
1155404
3029
有些事物在現代科技快速發展下
19:18
in our increasingly tech-dependent world,
458
1158433
2463
沒有被得到應有的看待,
19:20
that art and design
459
1160896
1683
藝術和設計,
19:22
are not luxuries,
460
1162579
1913
不是奢侈品,
19:24
nor somehow incompatible
461
1164492
1826
也不是不能和
19:26
with science and engineering.
462
1166318
1869
科學科技相容的。
19:28
They are in fact essential to what makes us special.
463
1168187
5575
事實上,它是讓我們與眾不同的必要。
19:33
Someday, if you get the chance,
464
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2515
如果有一天你有機會,
19:36
perhaps you can take your kids
465
1176277
1537
或許你可以帶你的孩子
19:37
to the actual Pantheon,
466
1177814
1771
去真正的萬神廟,
19:39
as we will our daughter Kira,
467
1179585
2660
像我帶我的女兒奇拉,
19:42
to experience firsthand
468
1182245
2078
去第一手體驗到
19:44
the power of that astonishing design,
469
1184323
4257
令人震驚的設計,
19:48
which on one otherwise unremarkable day in Rome,
470
1188580
3744
在羅馬的某一個不起眼的日子,
19:52
reached 2,000 years into the future
471
1192324
3027
觸及到 2000 年的未來,
19:55
to set the course for my life.
472
1195351
2658
造就我現在的人生。
19:58
Thank you.
473
1198009
2131
謝謝。
20:00
(Applause)
474
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4308
(掌聲)
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