Srdja Popovic: How to topple a dictator

Translator: Joseph Geni Reviewer: Morton Bast

Prevodilac: Ivana Korom Lektor: Tatjana Jevdjic

Good afternoon, I'm proud to be here at TEDxKrakow.

Dobar dan, drago mi je što sam ovde na TEDxKrakow

I'll try to speak a little bit today about a phenomenon

gde ću danas malo govoriti o fenomenu

which can, and actually is changing the world,

koji može da promeni svet, a to i čini,

and whose name is people power.

a koji se naziva moć naroda.

I'll start with an anecdote,

Počeću jednom anegdotom ili za one koji su ljubitelji

or for those of you who are Monty Python lovers,

Monti Pajtona, jednim montipajtonovskim skečom.

a Monty Python type of sketch.

Here it is.

Evo ga. Petnaesti decembar 2010.

It is December 15, 2010.

Somebody gives you a bet: you will look at a crystal ball,

Neko vam ponudi opkladu: pogledaćete u kristalnu kuglu

i videćete budućnost; ona će biti tačna.

and you will see the future; the future will be accurate.

But you need to share it with the world.

Ali morate je podeliti sa svetom. Ok?

OK, curiosity killed the cat, you take the bet,

Mnogo ste radoznali, prihvatate opkladu,

gledate u kristalnu kuglu. Sat vremena kasnije,

you look at the crystal ball.

One hour later, you're sitting in a building of the national TV,

sedite u zgradi nacionalne TV

in a top show, and you tell the story.

u gledanoj emisiji i pričate tu priču:

Before the end of 2011,

"Pre kraja 2011., Ben Ali i Mubarak

Ben Ali, and Mubarak, and Gaddafi would be down,

i Gadafi će pasti i biće im suđeno.

and prosecuted.

Saleh of Yemen and Assad of Syria

Saleh iz Jemena i Asad iz Sirije

would be either challenged, or already on their knees.

biće izazvani ili već poraženi.

Osama bin Laden would be dead,

Osama bin Laden biće mrtav,

and Ratko Mladic would be in the Hague.

a Ratko Mladić biće u Hagu."

Now, the anchor watches you with a strange gaze on his face.

Voditelj vas gleda sa čudnim izrazom lica.

And then, on top of it you add:

I onda povrh svega, dodajete:

"And thousands of young people from Athens, Madrid and New York

"...i hiljade mladih iz Atine, Madrida i Njujorka

protestovaće za socijalnu pravdu,

will demonstrate for social justice, claiming they are inspired by Arabs."

tvrdeći da su ih inspirisali Arapi."

Sledeće što se dešava je da dolaze dvojica u belom,

Next thing you know, two guys in white appear,

they give you the strange t-shirt,

daju vam neku čudnu majicu

take you to the nearest mental institution.

i odvode vas u najbližu duševnu bolnicu.

So I would like to speak a little bit

Voleo bih da govorim o fenomenu

about the phenomenon which is behind what already seems to be

koji je u pozadini onoga što već izgleda kao veoma loša godina

a very bad year for bad guys.

za loše momke, a taj fenomen se zove moć naroda.

And this phenomenon is called people power.

Well, people power has been there for a while.

Moć naroda postoji već duže vreme.

It helped Gandhi kick the Brits from India,

Pomogla je Gandiju da istera Britance iz Indije,

it helped Martin Luther King win his historic racial struggle.

pomogla je Martinu Luteru Kingu u istorijskoj borbi protiv rasizma.

Pomogla je lokalnom političaru, Lehu Valesi

It helped a local, Lech Walesa,

to kick out one million Soviet troops from Poland,

da istera milion sovjetskih vojnika iz Poljske

and in beginning the end of the Soviet Union as we know it.

i započne kraj Sovjetskog Saveza koji smo poznavali.

Dakle šta je tu novo? Ono što je izgleda novo,

So what's new in it?

What seems to be very new,

which is the idea I would like to share with you today,

a tu ideju ću podeliti sa vama danas,

is that there is a set of rules and skills

je to da postoje određena pravila i veštine koje se mogu učiti i podučavati

which can be learned and taught

kako bi se izvela uspešna nenasilna borba.

in order to perform successful nonviolent struggle.

If this is true, we can help these movements.

Ako je to istinito, možemo pomoći tim pokretima.

Well, the first one - analytic skills.

Prva veština je analitička.

I'll try where it all started in the Middle East.

Pokušaću sa Bliskim istokom, mestom na kom je sve počelo.

And for so many years,

Toliko mnogo godina smo živeli sa potpuno pogrešnim

we were living with a completely wrong perception of the Middle East.

shvatanjem Bliskog istoka.

It was looking like the frozen region.

Izgledao je kao zamrznuti region. Bukvalno kao frižider.

Literally a refrigerator.

And there were only two types of meal there.

U njemu su bile samo dve vrste jela:

odrezak koji predstavlja vojno-policijski

Steak, which stands for a Mubarak-Ben Ali type of military police dictatorship,

diktatorski režim Ben Alija i Mubaraka ili krompir, koji predstavlja

or a potato, which stands for a Tehran type of theocracies.

teokratiju teheranskog tipa.

And everybody was amazed when the refrigerator opened,

Svi su se začudili kada se frižider otvorio

and millions of young, mainly secular people

i milioni mladih, uglavnom sekularnih ljudi su izašli da pokrenu promenu.

stepped out to do the change.

Pogađajte - nisu gledali demografske podatke.

Guess what - they didn't watch the demographics.

What is the average age of an Egyptian? 24.

Koliko prosečni Egipćanin ima godina? 24.

How long was Mubarak in power? 31.

Koliko dugo je Mubarak vladao? 31 godinu.

So, this system was just obsolete, they expired.

Dakle, taj sistem je bio suvišan, istekao mu je rok.

And young people of the Arab world have awakened one morning,

Mladi ljudi širom sveta su se probudili jednog jutra

i shvatili da moć leži u njihovim rukama.

and understood that power lies in their hands.

The rest is the year in front of us.

Ostalo je u godini koja je pred nama.

And guess what? The same Generation Y,

Pogađajte: ista generacija Y, sa svojim pravilima,

with their rules, with their tools, with their games,

alatima, svojim igrama i svojim jezikom,

and with their language, which sounds a little bit strange to me.

koji meni zvuči pomalo čudno, ja imam 38 godina...

I'm 38 now.

Pogledajte godine ljudi na ulicama Evrope.

And can you look at the age of the people on the streets of Europe?

It seems that Generation Y is coming.

Izgleda da generacija Y dolazi.

Daću vam još jedan primer.

Now, let me set another example.

I'm meeting different people throughout the world,

Širom sveta srećem različite ljude,

to su akademici, profesori, lekari

and they are, you know, academics, and professors, and doctors,

i uvek govore o uslovima.

and they will always talk conditions.

They will say: "People power will work only if the regime is not too oppressive."

Kažu: "Moć naroda će uspeti, samo ako režim nije previše opresivan."

They will say: "People power will work,

Reći će: "Moć naroda uspeva ako je godišnji prihod

if the annual income of the country is between X and Z."

zemlje između X i Y."

Reći će: "Moć naroda će uspeti samo ako postoji strani pritisak."

They will say: "People power will work only if there is a foreign pressure."

They will say: "People power will work only if there is no oil."

Reći će: "Moć naroda će uspeti samo ako nema nafte."

And, I mean, there is a set of conditions.

Mislim, postoji skup uslova.

Pa, novost je da su vaše veštine tokom konflikta

Well, the news here is that your skills during the conflict

seem to be more important than the conditions.

izgleda važnije od tih uslova.

Namely, the skills of unity, planning, and maintaining nonviolent discipline.

To su veštine ujedinjenja, planiranja,

nenasilnog održavanja discipline.

Daću vam jedan primer.

Let me give you an example.

I come from a country called Serbia.

Ja dolazim iz zemlje koja se zove Srbija.

It took us 10 years to unite 18 opposition party leaders,

Bilo je potrebno deset godina da se 18 opozicionih lidera

with their big egos, behind one single candidate

sa velikim egom, ujedini iza jednog jedinog kandidata

against the Balkan dictator Slobodan Milosevic.

protiv balkanskog diktatora Slobodana Miloševića.

Guess what? That was the day of his defeat.

Pogađate? To je bio dan njegovog poraza.

Pogledajte Egipćane, bore se na trgu Tahrir,

You look at the Egyptians, they fight on Tahrir Square,

they get rid of their individual symbols,

uklone svoje lične simbole

i pojave se na ulici samo sa egipatskom zastavom.

they appear on the street only with the flag of Egypt.

I will give you a counter-example.

Daću vam jedan suprotan primer.

You see nine presidential candidates running against Lukashenko,

Videli ste da je Lukašenko imao devet protiv-kandidata.

you all know the outcome.

Svi znate ishod.

Dakle, jedinstvo je velika stvar. A ono može biti postignuto.

So unity is a big thing.

And this can be achieved.

Same with planning.

Isto važi i za planiranje. Neko vas je slagao

Somebody has lied to you

u vezi sa uspešnom i spontanom nenasilnom revolucijom.

about the successful and spontaneous nonviolent revolution.

Tako nešto u svetu ne postoji.

That thing doesn't exist in the world.

Whenever you see young people in front of the row

Kada god vidite mlade ljude kako na čelu reda

pokušavaju da se združe sa milicijom ili vojskom,

trying to fraternize with the police or military,

somebody was thinking about it before.

neko je već ranije mislio na to.

Na kraju, nenasilna disciplina,

Now, at the end, nonviolent discipline.

And this is probably the game-changer.

a to je ono što verovatno menja stvari.

If you maintain nonviolent discipline,

Ako održite nenasilnu disciplinu, uvek ćete pobediti.

you'll exclusively win.

Imate 100 000 ljudi u nenasilnoj šetnji,

You have 100,000 people in a nonviolent march,

one idiot or agent-provocateur throwing a stone.

a jedna budala ili provokator baci kamen.

Guess what takes all the cameras.

Šta privlači pažnju kamera? Taj jedan lik.

That one guy.

Jedan jedini čin nasilja

One single act of violence can literally destroy your movement.

bukvalno može uništiti vaš pokret.

Now, let me move to another place.

Dozvolite mi da pređem dalje.

It's the selection of strategies and tactics.

To je izbor strategija i taktika.

U nenasilnoj borbi postoje neka pravila koja možete pratiti.

There are certain rules in nonviolent struggle you may follow.

Prvo, počnite s nečim malim.

First, you start small.

Second, you pick the battles you can win.

Drugo, odaberite bitke koje možete da dobijete.

Ovde nas ima samo 200.

It's only 200 of us in this room.

We won't call for the march of a million.

Nećemo krenuti u milionsku šetnju.

But what if we organized the spraying of graffiti throughout the night,

Ali šta ako bismo organizovali pisanje grafita tokom noći

po celom Krakovu? Grad će znati.

all over Krakow.

The city will know.

So, we pick tactics accommodated to the event,

Dakle, biramo taktiku u skladu sa događajem,

especially this thing we call the small tactics of dispersion.

posebno ono što nazivamo malom taktikom raspršivanja.

They're very useful in violent oppression.

Veoma je korisna u nasilnom ugnjetavanju.

We are actually witnessing the picture of one of the best tactics ever used.

Zapravo smo svedoci slike

jedne od najboljih taktika.

It was on Tahrir square,

To je bilo na trgu Tahrir, gde je međunarodna zajednica

where the international community was constantly frightened

stalno zastrašivana da će islamisti

that, you know, the Islamists will overtake the revolution.

preuzeti revoluciju. Ono što su organizovali...

What they organized --

Hrišćani štite muslimane pri njihovim molitvama,

Christians protecting Muslims where they are praying,

a Coptic wedding cheered by thousands of Muslims,

hiljade muslimana pozdravlja koptsko venčanje.

the world has just changed the picture,

Svet je promenio sliku,

but somebody was thinking about this previously.

ali neko je ranije mislio o tome.

So there are so many things you can do

Postoje mnoge stvari koje možete uraditi

instead of getting into one place,

umesto da odete na jedno mesto

shouting, and you know, showing off in front of the security forces.

i vičete i pravite se važni pred obezbeđenjem.

Postoji još jedan važan odnos.

Now, there is also another very important dynamic.

And this is a dynamic that analysts normally don't see.

Njega analitičari uglavnom ne vide.

This is the dynamic between fear and apathy on the one side,

To je odnos između straha i apatije s jedne strane

and enthusiasm and humor on another side.

i entuzijazma i humora sa druge.

So, it works like in a video game.

To funkcioniše kao u video igri.

You have the fear high, you have status quo.

Ako je strah na visokom nivou, imate status kvo.

Ako entuzijazam raste, vidite kako strah počinje da se topi.

You have the enthusiasm higher,

you see the fear is starting to melt.

Drugog dana vidite kako ljudi u Egiptu trče ka policiji

Day two, you see people running towards the police

instead of from the police, in Egypt.

umesto od nje.

Vidite da se nešto tu dešava.

You can tell that something is happening there.

And then, it's about the humor.

A onda nastupa humor. Humor je veoma moćan

Humor is such a powerful game-changer,

činilac promene i naravno, veoma uticajan i u Poljskoj.

and of course, it was very big in Poland.

Znate, bili smo mala grupa ludih studenata u Srbiji,

You know, we were just a small group of crazy students in Serbia

kada smo napravili veliku parodiju.

when we made this big skit.

We put the big petrol barrel

Stavili smo veliko bure od goriva

with a portrait of Mr. President on it, in the middle of the Main Street.

sa slikom Gospodina Predsednika nasred glavne ulice.

Na vrhu je bila rupa.

There was a hole in the top.

So you could literally come, put a coin in,

Mogli ste bukvalno da dođete, ubacite novčić,

get a baseball bat, and hit his face.

uzmete bezbol palicu i udarite njegovo lice.

Stvara buku. U roku od nekoliko minuta,

Sounds loud.

And within minutes,

we were sitting in a nearby café having coffee,

sedeli smo u obližnjem kafiću i pili kafu,

and there was a queue of people waiting to do this lovely thing.

a ljudi su stajali u redu, čekajući da urade ovu divnu stvar.

Well, that's just the beginning of the show.

To je samo početak predstave.

The real show starts when the police appears.

Prava predstava počinje sa dolaskom policije.

(Laughter)

Šta će uraditi? Uhapsiti nas? Nisu mogli da nas nađu.

"What will they do?"

Arrest us? We were nowhere to be seen.

Posmatrali smo sve iz kafića tri bloka dalje.

We were like three blocks away, observing it from our espresso bar.

Da uhapse kupce sa decom? To nema smisla.

Arrest the shoppers, with kids?

Doesn't make sense.

Naravno, možete se kladiti, uradili su najgluplju stvar:

Of course, you could bet, they did the most stupid thing.

uhapsili su bure. I sada, slika

They arrested the barrel.

And now, the picture of the smashed face on the barrel,

izubijanog lica na buretu

with the policemen dragging it to the police car,

koje policajci vuku u auto,

that was the best day for newspaper photographers

bila je za fotoreportere nešto najbolje što su ikada dobili.

that they will ever have.

So, I mean, these are the things you can do.

Mislim, to su stvari koje možete uraditi.

I uvek možete koristiti humor.

And you can always use humor.

There is also one big thing about humor,

Ima još jedna velika stvar u vezi sa humorom: on zaista povređuje.

it really hurts.

Jer ovi momci stvarno sebe shvataju preozbiljno.

Because these guys really are taking themselves too seriously.

When you start to mock them, it hurts.

Kad počnete da im se rugate, to boli.

Sada svi govore o Njegovom Visočanstvu, Internetu,

Now, everybody is talking about His Majesty, the Internet,

koji je takođe veoma korisna veština.

and it is also a very useful skill.

But don't rush to label things like "a Facebook Revolution,"

Ali nemojte žurno obeležavati stvari kao "Fejsbuk revolucija", "Tviter revolucija."

"Twitter Revolution."

Don't mix the tools with the substance.

Ne mešajte suštinu i formu.

It is true that the Internet and the new media are very useful

Istina je da su internet i novi mediji veoma korisni

in making things faster and cheaper.

da se stvari urade brže i jeftinije.

Takođe čine stvari bezbednijima za učesnike,

They also make it a bit safer for the participants,

because they give partial anonymity.

jer obezbeđuju delimičnu anonimnost.

We're watching the great example of something else the Internet can do.

Vidimo odličan primer još nečega što internet može da uradi.

It can put the price tag of state-sponsored violence

Može da stavi cenu državno sponzorisanog nasilja nad nenasilnim protestantom.

over a nonviolent protester.

This is the famous group "We are all Khaled Said,"

Ovo je čuvena grupa "Svi smo mi Kaled Said"

made by Wael Ghonim in Egypt, and his friend.

koju su osnovali Vael Gonim i njegov prijatelj u Egiptu.

This is the mutilated face of the guy who was beaten by the police.

Ovo je unakaženo lice momka kog je prebila policija.

This is how he became known to the public,

Ovako je postao poznat u javnosti

and this is what probably became the straw that broke the camel's back.

i to je verovatno bila kap koja je prelila čašu.

But here is also the bad news.

Ali postoje i loše vesti.

The nonviolent struggle is won in the real world, in the streets.

Nenasilna borba se dobija na ulicama, u realnom svetu.

Nikada nećete uvesti svoje društvo

You will never change your society towards democracy,

u demokratiju i ekonomiju,

or, you know, the economy, if you sit down and click.

ako sedite i klikćete.

There are risks to be taken,

Postoje rizici koje treba preuzeti

and there are living people who are winning the struggle.

i živi ljudi koji se bore.

Pitanje za milion dolara: šta će se desiti u arapskom svetu?

Well, the million-dollar question.

What will happen in the Arab world?

And though young people from the Arab world

Iako su mladi ljudi iz arapskog sveta

were pretty successful in bringing down three dictators,

bili prilično uspešni u svrgavanju tri diktatora,

shaking the region,

prodrmavanju regiona i ubeđivanju pametnih kraljeva

kind of persuading the clever kings from Jordan and Morocco

Jordana i Maroka da izvrše korenite reforme,

to do substantial reforms,

it is yet to be seen what will be the outcome.

ostaje da se vidi šta će biti rezultat.

Whether the Egyptians and Tunisians will make it through the transition,

Da li će Egipćani i Tunižani uspešno proći tranziciju

ili će se ovo završiti krvavim etničkim i religijskim sukobom,

or this will end in bloody ethnic and religious conflicts,

da li će u Siriji opstati nenasilna disciplina,

whether the Syrians will maintain nonviolent discipline,

suočena sa brutalnim svakodnevnim nasiljem

faced with a brutal daily violence which kills thousands already,

koje je već ubilo hiljade

or they will slip into violent struggle

ili će skliznuti u nasilnu borbu

and make ugly civil war.

i započeti ružan građanski rat?

Da li će se ove revolucije probiti kroz tranziciju u demokratiju

Will these revolutions be pushed through the transitions and democracy

ili će ih preuzeti vojska

or be overtaken by the military or extremists of all kinds?

i razne ekstremističke grupe? To ne možemo znati.

We cannot tell.

The same works for the Western sector,

Isto važi za Zapadni deo sveta, gde možete videti

where you can see all these excited young people

sve te uzbuđene mlade ljude kako protestuju širom sveta,

protesting around the world, occupying this, occupying that.

okupirajući ovo i ono.

Are they going to become the world wave?

Da li će to zahvatiti čitav svet?

Are they going to find their skills, their enthusiasm, and their strategy

Da li će oni naći svoje veštine, entuzijazam

i strategiju da bi našli ono što žele

to find what they really want and push for the reform,

i pokrenuli reformu ili će ostati na tome

or will they just stay complaining about the endless list

da se žale na beskonačnu listu stvari koje mrze?

of the things they hate?

This is the difference between the two paths.

U tome je razlika između ta dva puta.

Now, what do the statistics have?

Ali, šta kaže statistika?

My friend Maria Stephan's book

Knjiga moje prijateljice, Marije Stefan,

mnogo govori o nasilnoj i nenasilnoj borbi

talks a lot about violent and nonviolent struggle,

and there are some shocking data.

i iznosi neke šokantne podatke.

If you look at the last 35 years and different social transitions,

Ako pogledate razne društvene promene

u poslednjih 35 godina, od diktature do demokratije,

from dictatorship to democracy,

you will see that, out of 67 different cases,

videćete da, od 67 različitih slučajeva,

u 50 je nenasilna borba bila

in 50 of these cases it was nonviolent struggle

which was the key power.

ta koja je bila ključna.

This is one more reason to look at this phenomenon,

To je još jedan od razloga da posmatramo taj fenomen,

this is one more reason to look at Generation Y.

još jedan od razloga da posmatramo Y generaciju.

Meni je to dovolljno da im verujem

Enough for me to give them credit,

and hope that they will find their skills and their courage

i da se nadam da će naći veštine i hrabrosti

to use nonviolent struggle

da koriste nenasilnu borbu

and thus fix at least a part of the mess our generation is making in this world.

i tako poprave makar deo haosa

koji naša generacija pravi u ovom svetu.

Thank you.

Hvala vam. (Aplauz)

(Applause)