Srdja Popovic: How to topple a dictator

Translator: Joseph Geni Reviewer: Morton Bast

翻译人员: Yi Shao 校对人员: Yingxue Sun

Good afternoon, I'm proud to be here at TEDxKrakow.

下午好。能来到TEDxKrakow（克拉科夫，波兰城市）我非常骄傲。

I'll try to speak a little bit today about a phenomenon

今天我要说一说

which can, and actually is changing the world,

一个有能力并且正在改变世界的现象，

and whose name is people power.

这个现象就是人民的力量。

I'll start with an anecdote,

让我先来与你们分享一段轶事，

or for those of you who are Monty Python lovers,

如果你们喜欢猛踢蒙提·派森（英国喜剧团体）的话，这就是一个蒙提·派森式的小品。

a Monty Python type of sketch.

Here it is.

故事是这样的。2010年12月15日。

It is December 15, 2010.

Somebody gives you a bet: you will look at a crystal ball,

有人和你打赌。赌约是，你可以从水晶球里

准确地看到未来。

and you will see the future; the future will be accurate.

But you need to share it with the world.

但是你必须把你所看到的公之于众。你愿意吗？

OK, curiosity killed the cat, you take the bet,

好奇心杀死猫。你接受挑战

看了水晶球。一个小时之后

you look at the crystal ball.

One hour later, you're sitting in a building of the national TV,

你在全国性的电视台的大楼里

in a top show, and you tell the story.

做脱口秀节目，讲述你在水晶球里看到的事情。

Before the end of 2011,

“2011年结束之前，本·阿里、穆巴拉克

Ben Ali, and Mubarak, and Gaddafi would be down,

和卡扎菲都会垮台并被起诉。

and prosecuted.

Saleh of Yemen and Assad of Syria

也门的萨利赫和叙利亚的阿萨德

would be either challenged, or already on their knees.

会受到挑战甚至屈服于压力。

Osama bin Laden would be dead,

奥萨马·本·拉登会死去，

and Ratko Mladic would be in the Hague.

拉科˙穆拉迪契会在海牙国际法庭受审。”

Now, the anchor watches you with a strange gaze on his face.

现在，主持人用一种奇怪的眼神凝视着你，

And then, on top of it you add:

然后你又补充道，

"And thousands of young people from Athens, Madrid and New York

“在雅典、马德里和纽约，成千上万的年轻人

会走上街头，声称自己受阿拉伯世界影响，

will demonstrate for social justice, claiming they are inspired by Arabs."

要为社会公正示威。”

接下来，两个身着白衣的人出现。

Next thing you know, two guys in white appear,

they give you the strange t-shirt,

给你一件古怪的T恤，

take you to the nearest mental institution.

把你送到最近的精神病院。

So I would like to speak a little bit

所以我想谈一谈这一年

about the phenomenon which is behind what already seems to be

恶霸不断倒台背后的现象

a very bad year for bad guys.

这个现象就是人民的力量。

And this phenomenon is called people power.

Well, people power has been there for a while.

人民的力量并不是什么新生现象。

It helped Gandhi kick the Brits from India,

它帮助甘地把英国人赶出印度。

it helped Martin Luther King win his historic racial struggle.

它帮助马丁·路德·金赢得了一场历史性的种族斗争。

它帮助波兰的莱赫·瓦文萨

It helped a local, Lech Walesa,

to kick out one million Soviet troops from Poland,

将一百万苏联军队赶出波兰

and in beginning the end of the Soviet Union as we know it.

启动了苏联的解体。

现在的人民力量新在何处呢？

So what's new in it?

What seems to be very new,

which is the idea I would like to share with you today,

我今天就想谈一谈这个问题

is that there is a set of rules and skills

要进行成功的非暴力斗争

which can be learned and taught

我们需要一系列可学习可传授的规则和技能。

in order to perform successful nonviolent struggle.

If this is true, we can help these movements.

如果事实如此，我们可以协助此类运动的开展。

Well, the first one - analytic skills.

第一，分析能力。

I'll try where it all started in the Middle East.

请让我从这一切的源头中东地区说起

And for so many years,

多年来，我们对中东地区的印象

we were living with a completely wrong perception of the Middle East.

一直有失偏颇。

It was looking like the frozen region.

我们认为中东好像一个被冷冻的区域，一个冰箱

Literally a refrigerator.

And there were only two types of meal there.

而且里面只有两种食物：

一种是牛排，代表穆巴拉克、本·阿里这种

Steak, which stands for a Mubarak-Ben Ali type of military police dictatorship,

军事独裁统治，另外一种是土豆，

or a potato, which stands for a Tehran type of theocracies.

也就是以伊朗德黑兰政权为代表的神权政体。

And everybody was amazed when the refrigerator opened,

因此当冰箱打开，成千上万的年轻人，

and millions of young, mainly secular people

其中大部分拥有着平凡的价值观，走上街头呼吁变革的时候

stepped out to do the change.

很多人非常惊讶。知道为什么吗？他们没有关注中东的人口统计特征。

Guess what - they didn't watch the demographics.

What is the average age of an Egyptian? 24.

埃及的平均年龄是多少？24岁。

How long was Mubarak in power? 31.

穆巴拉克在位多少年了？31年。

So, this system was just obsolete, they expired.

所以这样的统治系统已经过时。应该退休了。

And young people of the Arab world have awakened one morning,

而阿拉伯世界的年轻人某一天早上醒来

突然意识到力量就在自己手中。

and understood that power lies in their hands.

The rest is the year in front of us.

此后一年间发生的事情我们已经熟知。

And guess what? The same Generation Y,

这一代人有着自己规则

with their rules, with their tools, with their games,

自己的工具，自己的游戏和自己的语言

and with their language, which sounds a little bit strange to me.

这种语言对我来说有些奇怪。我今年38岁了。

I'm 38 now.

再看看欧洲街头示威人群的年龄组成？

And can you look at the age of the people on the streets of Europe?

It seems that Generation Y is coming.

年轻一代正在走上政治舞台。

现在请允许我再举一个例子。

Now, let me set another example.

I'm meeting different people throughout the world,

我与来自世界各地的很多人讨论过这个话题

学者、教授、医生都有

and they are, you know, academics, and professors, and doctors,

他们都喜欢讲条件。

and they will always talk conditions.

They will say: "People power will work only if the regime is not too oppressive."

他们会说，“只有政权对于人民的压迫过于深重的时候，人民的力量才会起作用。”

They will say: "People power will work,

他们还说：“如果该国年人均收入在X和Z之间

if the annual income of the country is between X and Z."

人民的力量才会起作用。“

他们说：”只有外国施加压力时，人民的力量才会起效。“

They will say: "People power will work only if there is a foreign pressure."

They will say: "People power will work only if there is no oil."

他们说，”只有在不牵涉的石油的情况下人民的力量才会起效“

And, I mean, there is a set of conditions.

这些条件确实存在。

然而，真正的重点是，应对冲突的技能

Well, the news here is that your skills during the conflict

seem to be more important than the conditions.

似乎比这些条件更加重要，

Namely, the skills of unity, planning, and maintaining nonviolent discipline.

它们分别是团结、规划

和坚持和非暴力斗争。

请允许我再举一个例子。

Let me give you an example.

I come from a country called Serbia.

我来自塞尔维亚。

It took us 10 years to unite 18 opposition party leaders,

我们花了10年的时间才联合18个自恃甚高的反对党领袖

with their big egos, behind one single candidate

选出一个候选人

against the Balkan dictator Slobodan Milosevic.

对抗巴尔干独裁者斯洛博丹·米洛舍维奇。

Guess what? That was the day of his defeat.

你猜结果怎样？他的末日就此到来。

再看埃及人，他们在解放广场上示威时

You look at the Egyptians, they fight on Tahrir Square,

they get rid of their individual symbols,

去除了所有个人符号。

他们走上街头时只带着埃及国旗。

they appear on the street only with the flag of Egypt.

I will give you a counter-example.

请允许我再举一个反例。

You see nine presidential candidates running against Lukashenko,

有9个候选人和卢卡申科竞争总总统职位。

you all know the outcome.

结果不言而喻。

因此，团结非常重要，而且也不难做到。

So unity is a big thing.

And this can be achieved.

Same with planning.

事先计划也是一样。有人跟你提到过

Somebody has lied to you

成功的自发非暴力革命？

about the successful and spontaneous nonviolent revolution.

世界上不存在这种革命。

That thing doesn't exist in the world.

Whenever you see young people in front of the row

如果你看到年轻人在接上

态度友好的和警察或者军队交涉，

trying to fraternize with the police or military,

somebody was thinking about it before.

肯定有人实现计划。

最后我要谈一谈不使用暴力的重要性，

Now, at the end, nonviolent discipline.

And this is probably the game-changer.

这在一场运动中可能会起到决定性的作用。

If you maintain nonviolent discipline,

如果坚持非暴力斗争，你就会取得胜利。

you'll exclusively win.

如果十万人参加了非暴力游行，

You have 100,000 people in a nonviolent march,

one idiot or agent-provocateur throwing a stone.

如果其中一个白痴或者奸细扔了石头

Guess what takes all the cameras.

媒体的镜头全都会对准这一个人。

That one guy.

一个暴力行为就可以

One single act of violence can literally destroy your movement.

毁掉整个运动。

Now, let me move to another place.

现在我们看下一个问题。

It's the selection of strategies and tactics.

战略和战术的甄选。

在非暴力斗争中遵守一些规则是必要的。

There are certain rules in nonviolent struggle you may follow.

第一，从小规模的运动开始。

First, you start small.

Second, you pick the battles you can win.

第二，将精力集中在可能赢的活动上。

今天出席的观众大约两百人。

It's only 200 of us in this room.

We won't call for the march of a million.

我们没办法组织百万人大游行。

But what if we organized the spraying of graffiti throughout the night,

如果我们趁夜晚在克拉科夫

四处涂鸦呢？市民们一定会知道的。

all over Krakow.

The city will know.

So, we pick tactics accommodated to the event,

因此，我们根据形势挑选策略

especially this thing we call the small tactics of dispersion.

尤其是运用分散的小规模策略。

They're very useful in violent oppression.

这种策略在暴力镇压中特别有效。

We are actually witnessing the picture of one of the best tactics ever used.

这张照片记录的就是

有史以来最棒的策略之一。

It was on Tahrir square,

这是在解放广场，国际社会

where the international community was constantly frightened

一直担心伊斯兰教徒会在这里

that, you know, the Islamists will overtake the revolution.

改变革命的性质。于是，他们安排了

What they organized --

基督教徒保护正在祈祷的穆斯林

Christians protecting Muslims where they are praying,

a Coptic wedding cheered by thousands of Muslims,

以及受到成千上万穆斯林祝福的科普特人婚礼。

the world has just changed the picture,

他们改变了世界的想法，

but somebody was thinking about this previously.

这一切都是事前计划的。

So there are so many things you can do

除了聚集在一起，

instead of getting into one place,

在安保人员面前大叫示威之外，

shouting, and you know, showing off in front of the security forces.

还有很多其他的斗争方式。

事实上还有一种动态制衡也非常重要

Now, there is also another very important dynamic.

And this is a dynamic that analysts normally don't see.

而且常被分析家忽略。

This is the dynamic between fear and apathy on the one side,

这是以热情和幽默

and enthusiasm and humor on another side.

化解恐惧和冷漠的动态。

So, it works like in a video game.

它的运作方式很像电子游戏。

You have the fear high, you have status quo.

如果恐惧指数较高，那其它状态保持不变。

如果热情指数升高，恐惧就会开始下降。

You have the enthusiasm higher,

you see the fear is starting to melt.

在第二天，你就会看到人们跑向警察，

Day two, you see people running towards the police

instead of from the police, in Egypt.

而不是从警察身边逃离。

不难看出，埃及就发生了类似的变化。

You can tell that something is happening there.

And then, it's about the humor.

接下来我们说说幽默。幽默拥有巨大的力量

Humor is such a powerful game-changer,

可以改变局势，而且波兰人民的幽默感一向不错。

and of course, it was very big in Poland.

在塞尔维亚，我们一小群疯狂的学生

You know, we were just a small group of crazy students in Serbia

曾经组织过大型的滑稽活动。

when we made this big skit.

We put the big petrol barrel

我们在主干道的中间

with a portrait of Mr. President on it, in the middle of the Main Street.

放上一个大汽油桶

上面贴着总统先生的照片。桶的顶端有一个洞

There was a hole in the top.

So you could literally come, put a coin in,

所以人们可以过来投币

get a baseball bat, and hit his face.

拿起棒球棍，给总统的脸来上一棒。

声音非常响。我们坐在附近的咖啡馆喝咖啡

Sounds loud.

And within minutes,

we were sitting in a nearby café having coffee,

观察形势发展，几分钟之内，

and there was a queue of people waiting to do this lovely thing.

就有一群人排队投币打总统。

Well, that's just the beginning of the show.

好戏这时才刚刚开始。

The real show starts when the police appears.

警察的出现掀起了真正的高潮。

(Laughter)

他们会怎么做呢？逮捕我们？他们根本找不到我们。

"What will they do?"

Arrest us? We were nowhere to be seen.

我们在三个街区之外的咖啡馆静观其变呢。

We were like three blocks away, observing it from our espresso bar.

逮捕那些带着孩子的购物者？没有道理。

Arrest the shoppers, with kids?

Doesn't make sense.

也许你们猜得到，最终他们还是做了最愚蠢的事情：

Of course, you could bet, they did the most stupid thing.

他们逮捕了那个汽油桶。

They arrested the barrel.

And now, the picture of the smashed face on the barrel,

警察将被打的歪七扭八的总统头像汽油桶

with the policemen dragging it to the police car,

拖向警车的画面

that was the best day for newspaper photographers

让报纸摄影记者们欣喜若狂。

that they will ever have.

So, I mean, these are the things you can do.

因此，我们都可以做一些力所能及的事，

而且别忘记将幽默融入其中。

And you can always use humor.

There is also one big thing about humor,

幽默的力量在于：独裁者们

it really hurts.

太在意他们的形象了，幽默其实拥有着巨大的杀伤力。

Because these guys really are taking themselves too seriously.

When you start to mock them, it hurts.

那些统治者一旦被嘲讽，就会坐立不安。

现在，人们都在谈论尊贵的因特网殿下，

Now, everybody is talking about His Majesty, the Internet,

网络也确实是一个非常有用的工具

and it is also a very useful skill.

But don't rush to label things like "a Facebook Revolution,"

但是别急着将各种运动命名为脸书革命或者推特（微博）革命。

"Twitter Revolution."

Don't mix the tools with the substance.

不要混淆工具和实质。

It is true that the Internet and the new media are very useful

在提高效率和降低成本方面

in making things faster and cheaper.

网络和新媒体非常有效。

网络的匿名性则

They also make it a bit safer for the participants,

because they give partial anonymity.

提高了参加反抗运动的安全性。

We're watching the great example of something else the Internet can do.

我们现在看到的是，是因特网在另外一个方面做出的伟大贡献。

It can put the price tag of state-sponsored violence

它可以让暴力镇压和平示威的政府付出代价。

over a nonviolent protester.

This is the famous group "We are all Khaled Said,"

这是Wael Ghonim和他的朋友在埃及

made by Wael Ghonim in Egypt, and his friend.

创建的一个著名组织，“我们都是Khaled Said”。

This is the mutilated face of the guy who was beaten by the police.

这是一个被警察殴打的年轻人受伤的面孔。

This is how he became known to the public,

他成为了公众的代表，可能就是

and this is what probably became the straw that broke the camel's back.

压垮骆驼的最后一根稻草。

But here is also the bad news.

然而因特网也有它的局限。

The nonviolent struggle is won in the real world, in the streets.

和平示威只有在真实世界，

在街头才能取得胜利。如果只坐在电脑面前点击鼠标的话

You will never change your society towards democracy,

你永远也无法

or, you know, the economy, if you sit down and click.

改善社会、推进民主。

There are risks to be taken,

必须冒险，必须有活生生的人参加

and there are living people who are winning the struggle.

斗争才有可能取得胜利。

再说一个重要的问题：阿拉伯世界今后会如何发展？

Well, the million-dollar question.

What will happen in the Arab world?

And though young people from the Arab world

阿拉伯世界的年轻人

were pretty successful in bringing down three dictators,

成功的扳倒了三个独裁者，

shaking the region,

振荡了整个世界的格局，一定程度上说服了

kind of persuading the clever kings from Jordan and Morocco

约旦和摩洛哥聪明的国王大举改革，

to do substantial reforms,

it is yet to be seen what will be the outcome.

但最终的结果还尚未揭晓，

Whether the Egyptians and Tunisians will make it through the transition,

埃及和突尼斯能否成功过渡

会不会有血腥的种族或者宗教冲突爆发

or this will end in bloody ethnic and religious conflicts,

面对日渐残暴、已经造成上千人死亡

whether the Syrians will maintain nonviolent discipline,

的暴力镇压，叙利亚人民

faced with a brutal daily violence which kills thousands already,

能否坚持不动用武力

or they will slip into violent struggle

还是说他们会陷入武装斗争

and make ugly civil war.

引起一场惨烈的内战。

这些革命是否能引领国家向民主过渡

Will these revolutions be pushed through the transitions and democracy

它们的胜利果实会不会被军方

or be overtaken by the military or extremists of all kinds?

或者各种极端分子攫取？我们无法预测。

We cannot tell.

The same works for the Western sector,

发生在西方社会的抗议也是如此

where you can see all these excited young people

有很多激愤的年轻人四处抗议

protesting around the world, occupying this, occupying that.

一会儿占领这个，一会儿占领那个。

Are they going to become the world wave?

他们会引领世界的潮流吗？

Are they going to find their skills, their enthusiasm, and their strategy

他们是会用自己的能力、热情和策略

去追寻理想，推动改革

to find what they really want and push for the reform,

还是会继续

or will they just stay complaining about the endless list

抱怨他们憎恨的无数现象？

of the things they hate?

This is the difference between the two paths.

这两者有云泥之别。

Now, what do the statistics have?

数据显示出什么样的发展趋势呢？

My friend Maria Stephan's book

我的朋友Maria Stephan的书

探讨了与暴力和非暴力斗争有关的大量问题

talks a lot about violent and nonviolent struggle,

and there are some shocking data.

也包含着一些惊人的数据。

If you look at the last 35 years and different social transitions,

过去35年中

在不同的国家一共发生了67次

from dictatorship to democracy,

you will see that, out of 67 different cases,

从独裁到民主的社会变革

其中有50次是通过非暴力斗争实现的

in 50 of these cases it was nonviolent struggle

which was the key power.

因此，非暴力斗争能起到非常关键的作用。

This is one more reason to look at this phenomenon,

从这个角度来看，当今世界正在发生的事情值得关注。

this is one more reason to look at Generation Y.

从这个角度来看，年轻一代值得关注，

我相信他们有希望

Enough for me to give them credit,

and hope that they will find their skills and their courage

用自己的能力和勇气

to use nonviolent struggle

通过非暴力斗争

and thus fix at least a part of the mess our generation is making in this world.

解决一部分

我们这代人给世界带来的问题。

Thank you.

谢谢。（掌声）

(Applause)