Rodney Brooks: Why we will rely on robots

Prevodilac: Maja Budišin Lukin Lektor: Tatjana Jevdjic

Well, Arthur C. Clarke,

Artur Č. Klark,

a famous science fiction writer from the 1950s,

poznati pisac naučne fantastike iz 1950-ih

said that, "We overestimate technology in the short term,

je rekao: "Mi precenjujemo tehnologiju na kratke staze

and we underestimate it in the long term."

i potcenjujemo je na duge staze."

And I think that's some of the fear that we see

I mislim da je taj naš strah

about jobs disappearing from artificial intelligence and robots.

vezan za poslove koji nestaju zbog veštačke inteligencije i robota.

That we're overestimating the technology in the short term.

Tako precenjujemo tehnologiju na kratke staze.

Mene brine da li ćemo dobiti tehnologiju koja nam treba na duge staze,

But I am worried whether we're going to get the technology we need in the long term.

Because the demographics are really going to leave us with lots of jobs that need doing

jer će nas demografija zaista dovesti do mnogih poslova koji treba da se urade

and that we, our society, is going to have to be built on the shoulders of steel of robots in the future.

i naše društvo će morati da se gradi na leđima gvozdenih robota u budućnosti.

So I'm scared we won't have enough robots.

Zato me plaši da nećemo imati dovoljno robota.

But fear of losing jobs to technology has been around for a long time.

A strah od gubljenja poslova zbog tehnologije je prisutan već dugo.

Back in 1957, there was a Spencer Tracy, Katharine Hepburn movie.

Još je 1957. bio film sa Spenserom Trejsijem i Ketrin Hepbern.

So you know how it ended up,

Znate kako se završio.

Spencer Tracy brought a computer, a mainframe computer of 1957, in

Spenser Trejsi je uveo kompjuter, centralni kompjuter iz 1957.

to help the librarians.

da pomogne bibliotekarima.

The librarians in the company would do things like answer for the executives,

Bibliotekari u kompaniji bi odgovarali na pitanja direktora:

"Kako se zovu irvasi Dedа Mraza?"

"What are the names of Santa's reindeer?"

And they would look that up.

I oni bi to potražili.

And this mainframe computer was going to help them with that job.

Centralni kompjuter je trebalo da im u tome pomogne.

Well of course a mainframe computer in 1957 wasn't much use for that job.

Naravno, od centralnih kompjutera iz 1957. nije bilo mnogo pomoći.

The librarians were afraid their jobs were going to disappear.

Bibliotekari su se uplašili da će njihovi poslovi nestati,

But that's not what happened in fact.

ali to se, u stvari, nije desilo.

The number of jobs for librarians increased for a long time after 1957.

Broj bibliotekara je rastao još dugo posle 1957.

It wasn't until the Internet came into play,

Sve dok internet nije ušao u igru,

the web came into play and search engines came into play

s vebom i pretraživačima,

that the need for librarians went down.

potreba za bibliotekarima nije opala.

And I think everyone from 1957 totally underestimated

Čini mi se da su svi iz 1957. potpuno potcenili

the level of technology we would all carry around in our hands and in our pockets today.

nivo tehnologije koju danas svi nosimo u rukama i po džepovima.

And we can just ask: "What are the names of Santa's reindeer?" and be told instantly --

Možemo samo da upitamo: "Kako se zovu irvasi Deda Mraza?",

or anything else we want to ask.

ili bilo šta drugo i da odmah dobijemo odgovor.

By the way, the wages for librarians went up faster

Inače, plate bibliotekara su rasle brže

than the wages for other jobs in the U.S. over that same time period,

od plata za druge poslove u SAD-u, u istom tom periodu

jer su bibliotekari i kompjuteri postali partneri.

because librarians became partners of computers.

Computers became tools, and they got more tools that they could use

Kompjuteri su postali sredstvo i bibliotekari su dobili više sredstava za korišćenje

and become more effective during that time.

i postali su efikasniji u tom periodu.

Same thing happened in offices.

Isto se dogodilo u kancelarijama.

Back in the old days, people used spreadsheets.

U ranijim vremenima ljudi su koristili tabele.

Spreadsheets were spread sheets of paper,

Tabele, na raširenim listovima papira,

and they calculated by hand.

su se izračunavale ručno.

But here was an interesting thing that came along.

A onda se pojavila ta zanimljiva stvar.

With the revolution around 1980 of P.C.'s,

Kompjuterskom revolucijom '80-ih,

the spreadsheet programs were tuned for office workers,

napravljeni su tabelarni programi baš za činovnike,

not to replace office workers,

ne da bi ih zamenili,

but it respected office workers as being capable of being programmers.

već za činovnike sposobne da programiraju.

So office workers became programmers of spreadsheets.

Tako su činovnici postali programeri tabela.

It increased their capabilities.

To je povećalo njihove mogućnosti.

They no longer had to do the mundane computations,

Nisu više morali da rade svakodnevne proračune

but they could do something much more.

već su mogli da urade mnogo više.

Now today, we're starting to see robots in our lives.

Danas, počinjemo da susrećemo robote u našim životima.

On the left there is the PackBot from iRobot.

Na levoj strani je IRobotov PakBot.

When soldiers came across roadside bombs in Iraq and Afghanistan,

Kada su vojnici naišli na bombe pored puta u Iraku i Avganistanu,

instead of putting on a bomb suit and going out and poking with a stick,

umesto da su obukli bombaška odela, izašli i ubadali štapom,

as they used to do up until about 2002,

kako su to radili sve do 2002.,

they now send the robot out.

sada su slali robota.

So the robot takes over the dangerous jobs.

Dakle, robot preuzima opasne poslove.

On the right are some TUGs from a company called Aethon in Pittsburgh.

Na desnoj strani su neki TUG roboti od kompanije "Aethon" iz Pitsburga.

These are in hundreds of hospitals across the U.S.

Nalaze se u stotinama bolnica širom SAD-a.

And they take the dirty sheets down to the laundry.

Oni odnose prljave čaršave dole u perionicu.

They take the dirty dishes back to the kitchen.

Vraćaju prljave sudove u kuhinju.

They bring the medicines up from the pharmacy.

Donose lekove iz apoteke.

And it frees up the nurses and the nurse's aides

Tako da su medicinske sestre i niže bolničko osoblje rasterećeni

from doing that mundane work of just mechanically pushing stuff around

od svakodnevnog mehaničkog posla guranja tih stvari,

to spend more time with patients.

da bi provodili više vremena s pacijentima.

In fact, robots have become sort of ubiquitous in our lives in many ways.

U stvari, roboti su postali sveprisutni u našim životima na mnogo načina.

But I think when it comes to factory robots, people are sort of afraid,

Ali čini mi se kada su u pitanju fabrički roboti, da ih se ljudi plaše,

because factory robots are dangerous to be around.

jer je opasno biti u njihovoj okolini.

In order to program them, you have to understand six-dimensional vectors and quaternions.

Da bi ih programirali morate da razumete 6-dimenzionalne vektore i kvaternione,

And ordinary people can't interact with them.

a obični ljudi ne mogu da komunicirijaju sa njima.

And I think it's the sort of technology that's gone wrong.

Mislim da je ta tehnologija otišla pogrešnim putem.

It's displaced the worker from the technology.

Odvojila je radnike od tehnologije

And I think we really have to look at technologies

i čini mi se da zaista moramo da imamo u vidu tehnologiju

that ordinary workers can interact with.

sa kojom obični radnici mogu da komuniciraju.

And so I want to tell you today about Baxter, which we've been talking about.

Danas ću vam govoriti o Baksteru, koga sam već spominjao.

And Baxter, I see, as a way -- a first wave of robot

Bakstera vidim kao put – prvi talas robota

that ordinary people can interact with in an industrial setting.

sa kojim obični ljudi mogu da komuniciraju u industrijskom okruženju.

So Baxter is up here.

Dakle, Bakster je ovde gore.

This is Chris Harbert from Rethink Robotics.

Ovo je Kris Herbert iz "Rethink Robotics-a".

We've got a conveyor there.

Tamo imamo pokretnu traku.

And if the lighting isn't too extreme --

I ako osvetljenje nije prejako –

Ah, ah! There it is. It's picked up the object off the conveyor.

Ah, ah! Evo ga. Pokupio je predmet sa pokretne trake.

It's going to come bring it over here and put it down.

Doći će, doneće ga ovamo i spustiće ga.

And then it'll go back, reach for another object.

I onda će se vratiti da bi uzeo drugi predmet.

The interesting thing is Baxter has some basic common sense.

Interesantno je da Bakster ima pomalo osnovnog zdravog razuma.

By the way, what's going on with the eyes?

Usput, šta se dešava s očima?

The eyes are on the screen there.

Oči su tamo na ekranu.

Oči gledaju u pravcu u kome će se robot kretati.

The eyes look ahead where the robot's going to move.

So a person that's interacting with the robot

Osoba koja komunicira sa robotom

understands where it's going to reach and isn't surprised by its motions.

zna kuda će ići i nije iznenađena njegovim kretanjem.

Here Chris took the object out of its hand,

Ovde je Kris uzeo predmet iz njegove ruke,

and Baxter didn't go and try to put it down;

a Bakster nije otišao i pokušao da ga spusti;

it went back and realized it had to get another one.

već se vratio, shvativši da mora uzeti još jedan.

It's got a little bit of basic common sense, goes and picks the objects.

Ima malo osnovnog zdravog razuma, kreće se i skuplja predmete.

And Baxter's safe to interact with.

Sa Baksterom se može bezbedno komunicirati.

You wouldn't want to do this with a current industrial robot.

To ne biste želeli da radite sa sadašnjim industrijskim robotom.

But with Baxter it doesn't hurt.

No Bakster vas neće povrediti.

It feels the force, understands that Chris is there

On oseća silu, razume da je Kris tamo

and doesn't push through him and hurt him.

i ne gura ga i ne povređuje ga.

But I think the most interesting thing about Baxter is the user interface.

Ipak, čini mi se da je najinteresantniji Baksterov korisnički interfejs.

And so Chris is going to come and grab the other arm now.

Sada će ga Kris dohvatiti za drugu ruku.

And when he grabs an arm, it goes into zero-force gravity-compensated mode

Kada mu dohvati ruku, on je u modalitetu nulte sile kompenzovane gravitacijom

and graphics come up on the screen.

i na ekranu se pojavi grafika.

You can see some icons on the left of the screen there for what was about its right arm.

Na levoj strani ekrana vidite ikone za desnu ruku.

He's going to put something in its hand, he's going to bring it over here,

Kris će mu staviti nešto u ruku, robot će to doneti ovamo

i pritiskom na dugme pustiće to iz ruke.

press a button and let go of that thing in the hand.

And the robot figures out, ah, he must mean I want to put stuff down.

I robot razmišlja: "Ah, mora da je mislio da ću spustiti taj predmet."

It puts a little icon there.

Tada se upali mala ikona tamo.

He comes over here, and he gets the fingers to grasp together,

Kris mu skuplja prste,

and the robot infers, ah, you want an object for me to pick up.

a robot zaključuje: "Ah, želite da podignem predmet."

That puts the green icon there.

Tada se upali zelena ikona tamo.

He's going to map out an area of where the robot should pick up the object from.

Kris će označiti područje u kome će robot da skuplja predmete.

It just moves it around, and the robot figures out that was an area search.

Samo ih premešta okolo i robot shvata da je to područje za traženje.

He didn't have to select that from a menu.

Nije morao da to izabere na meniju.

And now he's going to go off and train the visual appearance of that object

I sada će otići i vežbaće vizuelnu pojavu tog predmeta,

while we continue talking.

dok mi nastavljamo s govorom.

So as we continue here,

Kako nastavljamo ovde,

I want to tell you about what this is like in factories.

reći ću vam kako to izgleda u fabrikama.

These robots we're shipping every day.

Ove robote otpremamo svaki dan

They go to factories around the country.

u fabrike širom zemlje.

This is Mildred.

Ovo je Mildred.

Mildred's a factory worker in Connecticut.

Mildred je fabrička radnica iz Konektikata.

She's worked on the line for over 20 years.

Radi na traci preko 20 godina.

Sat vremena nakon što je videla svog prvog industrijskog robota,

One hour after she saw her first industrial robot,

she had programmed it to do some tasks in the factory.

programirala ga je da obavlja neke poslove u fabrici.

She decided she really liked robots.

Zaključila je da joj se roboti zaista sviđaju.

And it was doing the simple repetitive tasks that she had had to do beforehand.

I robot je radio njene pređašnje, jednostavne i ponavljajuće poslove.

Now she's got the robot doing it.

Sada ima robota koji to radi.

When we first went out to talk to people in factories

Kada smo prvi put bili na razgovoru sa ljudima u fabrikama

about how we could get robots to interact with them better,

o tome kako da postignemo bolju komunikaciju između robota i njih,

one of the questions we asked them was,

jedno od pitanja koje smo im postavili bilo je:

"Da li želite da vaša deca rade u fabrici?"

"Do you want your children to work in a factory?"

The universal answer was "No, I want a better job than that for my children."

Univerzalni odgovor je bio: "Ne, želim bolji posao za svoju decu".

And as a result of that, Mildred is very typical

Rezultat toga je da je Mildred tipična

of today's factory workers in the U.S.

današnja fabrička radnica u SAD.

They're older, and they're getting older and older.

Oni su stariji i biće još stariji.

There aren't many young people coming into factory work.

Nema mnogo mladih ljudi zaposlenih u fabrici.

Pošto im njihovi zadaci postaju sve tegobniji

And as their tasks become more onerous on them,

we need to give them tools that they can collaborate with,

moramo im dati sredstva s kojima će moći sarađivati,

so that they can be part of the solution,

tako da bi roboti mogli biti deo rešenja,

da mogu da nastave s radom i mi sa proizvodnjom u SAD.

so that they can continue to work and we can continue to produce in the U.S.

And so our vision is that Mildred who's the line worker

Naša vizija je da Mildred, radnica na traci,

becomes Mildred the robot trainer.

postane Mildred – trener robota.

She lifts her game,

Ona podiže svoju ulogu,

like the office workers of the 1980s lifted their game of what they could do.

kao što su činovnici u '80-im povisili svoju ulogu.

We're not giving them tools that they have to go and study for years and years in order to use.

Ne dajemo im sredstva koja moraju da uče godinama da bi ih korisitili,

već njihov način rada mogu da nauče u par minuta.

They're tools that they can just learn how to operate in a few minutes.

There's two great forces that are both volitional but inevitable.

Postoje dve velike zakonitosti koje su svojevoljne, ali neizbežne.

That's climate change and demographics.

To su klimatske promene i demografija.

Demographics is really going to change our world.

Demografija će zaista promeniti naš svet.

This is the percentage of adults who are working age.

Ovo je procenat odraslih koji su u radnim godinama.

And it's gone down slightly over the last 40 years.

Malo više se spustio u poslednjih 40 godina.

U narednih 40 godina to će se dramatično promeniti, čak i u Kini.

But over the next 40 years, it's going to change dramatically, even in China.

Procenat odraslih u radnim godinama dramatično opada.

The percentage of adults who are working age drops dramatically.

And turned up the other way, the people who are retirement age goes up very, very fast,

Posmatrano s druge strane, broj penzionera brzo raste

as the baby boomers get to retirement age.

kako "bebi-bumeri" stižu do godina za penziju.

That means there will be more people with fewer social security dollars

To znači da će biti više ljudi s manje novca za socijalnu sigurnost

competing for services.

u borbi za usluge.

But more than that, as we get older we get more frail

Ali više od toga, što smo stariji postajemo slabiji

and we can't do all the tasks we used to do.

i ne možemo da obavljamo sve ranije uobičajene zadatke.

If we look at the statistics on the ages of caregivers,

Ukoliko pogledamo statistike o starosti negovatelja,

before our eyes those caregivers are getting older and older.

oni su sve stariji.

That's happening statistically right now.

To se statistički dešava upravo sada.

And as the number of people who are older, above retirement age and getting older, as they increase,

Povećavanjem starije populacije i sve starijih penzionera,

there will be less people to take care of them.

biće sve manje ljudi da se o njima brinu.

And I think we're really going to have to have robots to help us.

Zato mislim da ćemo stvarno morati da imamo robote da nam pomažu.

Ne mislim na robota u smislu saputnika.

And I don't mean robots in terms of companions.

I mean robots doing the things that we normally do for ourselves

Mislim na robote koji rade stvari koje obično sami obavljamo,

but get harder as we get older.

a koje nam postaju napornije u starosti.

Getting the groceries in from the car, up the stairs, into the kitchen.

Nošenje namirnica u i iz auta, uz stepenice, do kuhinje

ili čak, kad postanemo mnogo stariji,

Or even, as we get very much older,

driving our cars to go visit people.

vožnja naših automobila radi odlaska u posete.

And I think robotics gives people a chance to have dignity as they get older

Mislim da robotika daje ljudima mogućnost dostojanstvene starosti

by having control of the robotic solution.

ako imamo rešenu kontrolu robota.

So they don't have to rely on people that are getting scarcer to help them.

Oni ne moraju da se oslanjaju na ljude kojih je sve manje, da im pomažu.

And so I really think that we're going to be spending more time

Zaista mislim da ćemo više vremena provoditi

with robots like Baxter

sa robotima kao što je Bakster

and working with robots like Baxter in our daily lives. And that we will --

i da ćemo raditi sa robotima kao Bakster u svakodnevnom životu. I da ćemo –

Here, Baxter, it's good.

Evo, Bakster, dobro je.

And that we will all come to rely on robots over the next 40 years

I da ćemo se svi oslanjati na robote u sledećih 40 godina

as part of our everyday lives.

koji će biti deo našeg svakodnevnog života.

Thanks very much.

Hvala, puno.

(Applause)

(Aplauz)