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譯者: Weichen Cai
審譯者: NAN-KUN WU
00:13
Well, Arthur C. Clarke,
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亞瑟·查理斯·克拉克
00:14
a famous science fiction
writer from the 1950s,
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上世紀50年代著名的科幻小說家
00:17
said that, "We overestimate
technology in the short term,
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曾說過:“從短期看來,我們高估了科技;
00:21
and we underestimate it in the long term."
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但從長期而言,我們卻低估了它”
00:24
And I think that's some of the fear
that we see
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隨著人工智能和機器人技術的發展
00:26
about jobs disappearing from artificial
intelligence and robots.
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我們開始害怕某些工作將被取代
00:31
That we're overestimating
the technology in the short term.
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正是我們高估科技短期影響的一種代表
但我擔心的是從長遠看,
我們能否達到所需要的科技水平
00:34
But I am worried whether we're going to get
the technology we need in the long term.
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00:39
Because the demographics are really going
to leave us with lots of jobs that need doing
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人口的增長讓我們需要更多人手
00:45
and that we, our society, is going to have to be built
on the shoulders of steel of robots in the future.
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我們的社會將不得不建立在這些鋼鐵機器的肩膀上。
00:50
So I'm scared we won't have enough robots.
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所以,我擔心的是我們沒有足夠的機器人
00:53
But fear of losing jobs to technology
has been around for a long time.
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科技會導致失業的想法其實由來已久
00:57
Back in 1957, there was a Spencer
Tracy, Katharine Hepburn movie.
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1975年,史賓塞·屈賽 和 凯瑟琳·赫本主演主演過一部電影
01:01
So you know how it ended up,
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你知道最後最後結局如何嗎?
01:03
Spencer Tracy brought a computer,
a mainframe computer of 1957, in
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史賓塞·屈賽 弄來了一台電腦,一台1957年的大型機
01:07
to help the librarians.
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幫助那些圖書管理員
01:09
The librarians in the company would do
things like answer for the executives,
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公司的圖書管理員需要負責回答高官們的問題。例如,
“聖誕老人的馴鹿叫什麼名字?”
01:13
"What are the names of Santa's reindeer?"
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01:16
And they would look that up.
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圖書管理員們就回去把答案找出來。
01:17
And this mainframe computer was going
to help them with that job.
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這些大型計算機就會幫助他們
01:20
Well of course a mainframe computer
in 1957 wasn't much use for that job.
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當然,一台1957年的大型機也不見得對這工作有多大幫助
01:24
The librarians were afraid
their jobs were going to disappear.
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然而圖書管理員們依舊害怕他們會失業
01:27
But that's not what happened in fact.
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但事實上事情並非如此。
01:29
The number of jobs for librarians
increased for a long time after 1957.
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在1957年之後很長的一段時間裡,
圖書管理員的數量反而增長了
01:34
It wasn't until the Internet
came into play,
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直到互聯網出現,
01:37
the web came into play and search
engines came into play
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網絡出現,搜索引擎出現
01:40
that the need for librarians went down.
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對圖書管理員的需求才開始下降。
01:42
And I think everyone from 1957
totally underestimated
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同時,我認為在1957年所有人都完完全全低估了
01:46
the level of technology we would all carry
around in our hands and in our pockets today.
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我們今天握在手中以及裝在口袋中的這些東西的科技含量
01:51
And we can just ask: "What are the names
of Santa's reindeer?" and be told instantly --
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只需一瞬間,我們就可以知道聖誕老人的馴鹿的名字,
01:57
or anything else we want to ask.
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抑或是任何我們想問的
01:59
By the way, the wages
for librarians went up faster
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順帶一提,圖書管理員的工資增速
02:04
than the wages for other jobs in the U.S.
over that same time period,
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曾在一段時間內高過了全美其他崗位的工資水平,
因為圖書管理員成為了電腦的同夥
02:08
because librarians became
partners of computers.
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02:11
Computers became tools, and they got
more tools that they could use
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電腦成為了他們的工具,
同時他們也獲取了更多其他可用的工具
02:14
and become more effective
during that time.
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讓效率變得更高。
02:16
Same thing happened in offices.
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同樣的事情也發生在辦公室裡
02:18
Back in the old days,
people used spreadsheets.
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以前,人們處理報表的方式是
02:20
Spreadsheets were spread sheets of paper,
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把數據寫在許多不同的紙張
02:22
and they calculated by hand.
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一一用手計算。
02:25
But here was an interesting
thing that came along.
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但是有趣的事情發生了。
02:27
With the revolution around 1980 of P.C.'s,
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隨著1980年的電腦革命,
02:29
the spreadsheet programs were
tuned for office workers,
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空白表格程式沒有取代辦公族,
02:34
not to replace office workers,
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反而受到他們的青睞
02:36
but it respected office workers
as being capable of being programmers.
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辦公族變身成為程式設計師,
02:40
So office workers became
programmers of spreadsheets.
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當他們成為空白表格的程式設計師
02:43
It increased their capabilities.
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他們的工作更有效率了。
02:45
They no longer had to do
the mundane computations,
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他們不用再做那些繁瑣的計算,
02:48
but they could do something much more.
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他們可以做更多其他工作。
02:51
Now today, we're starting
to see robots in our lives.
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今天,我們在日常生活中也能見到機器人的身影。
02:54
On the left there
is the PackBot from iRobot.
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左邊是一台 iRobot 公司產的軍用機械人 PackBot
02:57
When soldiers came across roadside
bombs in Iraq and Afghanistan,
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當士兵們穿越伊拉克和阿富汗戰場的雷區時,
03:00
instead of putting on a bomb suit
and going out and poking with a stick,
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他們不再像 2002 年之前那樣,
03:04
as they used to do up until about 2002,
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穿著防彈背心拿著探棒到處戳,
03:06
they now send the robot out.
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現在他們派機器人去
03:08
So the robot takes
over the dangerous jobs.
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讓機器人負責這些危險的工作
03:10
On the right are some TUGs from a company
called Aethon in Pittsburgh.
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在右邊是匹玆堡的一家名為 Aethon 的公司
生產的 TUG 機器人。
03:15
These are in hundreds
of hospitals across the U.S.
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全美近百家醫院正在使用這些機器人
03:17
And they take the dirty
sheets down to the laundry.
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它們把床單送去洗衣房。
03:20
They take the dirty dishes
back to the kitchen.
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把髒盤子送回廚房
03:21
They bring the medicines
up from the pharmacy.
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從藥房取藥送給病人
03:24
And it frees up the nurses
and the nurse's aides
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這使得護士和他們的助手
03:26
from doing that mundane work of just
mechanically pushing stuff around
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從那些到處搬東西的機械化勞動中解放,
03:30
to spend more time with patients.
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花更多的時間的陪患者。
03:32
In fact, robots have become sort
of ubiquitous in our lives in many ways.
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事實上,機器人已經普及在我們生活的很多層次。
03:37
But I think when it comes to factory
robots, people are sort of afraid,
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但是如果談及工業機器人,人們可能還是會有些害怕的,
03:42
because factory robots
are dangerous to be around.
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因為工業機器人有可能會傷及周圍的人。
03:46
In order to program them, you have to understand
six-dimensional vectors and quaternions.
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如果要為它們設計程序,你需要理解六維向量和四元空間。
03:51
And ordinary people can't
interact with them.
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一般人無法和它們溝通。
03:54
And I think it's the sort
of technology that's gone wrong.
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我認為一旦科技完全取代了原本的工人
03:57
It's displaced the worker
from the technology.
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這樣的科技就有問題了
04:00
And I think we really have
to look at technologies
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我們確實需要思考一下如何讓工人
04:04
that ordinary workers can interact with.
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可以和這些高科技產物相互合作。
04:06
And so I want to tell you today about Baxter,
which we've been talking about.
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所以今天我想聊聊我們曾經談到過的 Baxter 機器人。
04:09
And Baxter, I see, as a way
-- a first wave of robot
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Baxter 在我看來是第一批
04:14
that ordinary people can interact
with in an industrial setting.
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通過一些工業設定就可以和普通人互相溝通的機器人
04:18
So Baxter is up here.
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讓我們來看看 Baxter。
04:19
This is Chris Harbert
from Rethink Robotics.
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這位是 Rethink Robotics 的克里斯·哈伯特
04:22
We've got a conveyor there.
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在這裡我們有一個輸送帶
04:24
And if the lighting isn't too extreme --
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如果亮度不是過高的話
04:27
Ah, ah! There it is. It's picked
up the object off the conveyor.
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對了,對了。Baxter 從輸送帶上拿起了零件。
04:31
It's going to come bring it
over here and put it down.
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接著它把零件拿過來放下。
04:34
And then it'll go back,
reach for another object.
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然後再回去取下一個零件。
04:37
The interesting thing is Baxter
has some basic common sense.
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有趣的是,Baxter 也具備一些基本的常識。
04:41
By the way, what's going on with the eyes?
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順帶一提,它的眼睛去哪兒了?
04:43
The eyes are on the screen there.
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眼睛在那邊的螢幕上。
它會看著機器人要移動的方向。
04:45
The eyes look ahead where
the robot's going to move.
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04:47
So a person that's interacting
with the robot
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因此和機器人一起工作的人
04:49
understands where it's going to reach
and isn't surprised by its motions.
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可以明白機器人要移向哪裡
而不會被他的動向嚇到。
04:53
Here Chris took the object
out of its hand,
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現在克里斯從它手裡拿走一個零件,
04:55
and Baxter didn't go
and try to put it down;
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這時 Baxter 不會繼續嘗試將那零件移過去放下;
04:58
it went back and realized
it had to get another one.
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它會返回原位,因為它意識到自己要去取下一個零件。
05:00
It's got a little bit of basic common
sense, goes and picks the objects.
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在拿取和移動零件上Baxter已有了一些常識。
05:03
And Baxter's safe to interact with.
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同時與 Baxter 一起工作也是很安全的。
05:05
You wouldn't want to do this
with a current industrial robot.
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你也許不會想和現在市面上的工業機器人一起工作。
05:08
But with Baxter it doesn't hurt.
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但是和Baxter一起是安全的
05:10
It feels the force, understands
that Chris is there
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它能夠感覺阻力,從而明白克里斯在那裡。
05:14
and doesn't push through him and hurt him.
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它不會推他導致傷到他
05:17
But I think the most interesting thing
about Baxter is the user interface.
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但是我認為 Baxter 最有意思的還是它的用戶界面。
05:20
And so Chris is going to come
and grab the other arm now.
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現在克里斯要過去抓住它另一只手臂
05:23
And when he grabs an arm, it goes
into zero-force gravity-compensated mode
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當他抓住一只手的時候,
Baxter 就進入了無動力重力補償模式,
05:29
and graphics come up on the screen.
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同時這樣的圖像出現在螢幕上
05:31
You can see some icons on the left of the screen
there for what was about its right arm.
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你可以看到一些圖標出現在螢幕的右邊,
它們代表了 Baxter 的右臂。
05:35
He's going to put something in its hand,
he's going to bring it over here,
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他打算把那些東西放到這裡來,
按下一個按鈕,然後讓它放下手裡的東西。
05:39
press a button and let go
of that thing in the hand.
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05:43
And the robot figures out, ah, he must
mean I want to put stuff down.
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然後機器人明白了,“嗯,他一定是要我把這個東西放下”
05:48
It puts a little icon there.
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它在需要放零件的地方標了個圖標。
05:49
He comes over here, and he gets
the fingers to grasp together,
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它把機器手移到這裡,併起它的手指,
05:55
and the robot infers, ah, you
want an object for me to pick up.
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機器人明白克里斯要它撿起一個零件
05:59
That puts the green icon there.
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在那邊標一個綠色的圖標。
06:01
He's going to map out an area of where
the robot should pick up the object from.
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克里斯現在要劃出一塊區域,
讓機器人從這塊區域裡取零件。
06:06
It just moves it around, and the robot
figures out that was an area search.
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他只是把機械手臂到處移動,
機器人就明白這是一塊搜索區域。
06:11
He didn't have to select that from a menu.
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他不用在選單中選擇。
06:13
And now he's going to go off and train
the visual appearance of that object
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他現在要離開一會兒,去教會機器人識別零件。
06:16
while we continue talking.
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現在我們繼續聊。
06:18
So as we continue here,
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說到這裡,
06:20
I want to tell you about what this
is like in factories.
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我先要告訴你們這些機器人在工廠裡是怎麼工作的。
06:22
These robots we're shipping every day.
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這些每天運出的這些機器人,
06:23
They go to factories around the country.
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被送往遍佈全美的工廠。
06:25
This is Mildred.
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這位是米爾德里德。
06:26
Mildred's a factory worker in Connecticut.
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米爾德里德是康涅狄格的一名工人。
06:28
She's worked on the line
for over 20 years.
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她在生產線上工作了20多年。
就在她見到她生平的第一個工業機器人的一個小時以後,
06:31
One hour after she saw her
first industrial robot,
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06:33
she had programmed it to do
some tasks in the factory.
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她就已經教會了這台機器人一些工廠裡的工作。
06:37
She decided she really liked robots.
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她確實非常喜歡機器人。
06:39
And it was doing the simple repetitive
tasks that she had had to do beforehand.
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機器人正在做那些她之前不得不做的重複性工作。
06:44
Now she's got the robot doing it.
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現在機器人代替她做這些。
06:45
When we first went out to talk
to people in factories
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在我們最開始走到工廠裡與那裡的人們談論
06:48
about how we could get robots
to interact with them better,
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我們如何更好的讓機器人和他們合作時,
06:51
one of the questions we asked them was,
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我們問的其中一個問題是,
“你想讓你的孩子在工廠工作嗎?”
06:53
"Do you want your children
to work in a factory?"
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06:55
The universal answer was "No, I want
a better job than that for my children."
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所有答案都是,“不,我想我孩子有個更好的工作。”
06:59
And as a result of that,
Mildred is very typical
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其結果是,米爾德里德就是現在美國一個很典型的
07:03
of today's factory workers in the U.S.
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工廠工人。
07:04
They're older, and they're
getting older and older.
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他們都比較年長,並在不斷走向衰老。
07:07
There aren't many young people
coming into factory work.
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很少有年輕人願意在工廠工作。
隨著他們肩負的工作變得日益繁重,
07:10
And as their tasks become
more onerous on them,
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07:13
we need to give them tools
that they can collaborate with,
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我們需要提供他們一些可以幫助他們的工具,
07:16
so that they can be part of the solution,
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使他們可以成為解決方案的一部分,
使他們可以繼續留在工作崗位上,
也是美國的製造業得以持續。
07:18
so that they can continue to work
and we can continue to produce in the U.S.
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07:22
And so our vision is that Mildred
who's the line worker
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所以我們期望米爾德里德可以從一個流水線工人
07:26
becomes Mildred the robot trainer.
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轉變為一個機器人教練。
07:29
She lifts her game,
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她改變了她的工作性質,
07:30
like the office workers of the 1980s
lifted their game of what they could do.
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就如同上世紀 80 年代的辦公室一族一樣
07:35
We're not giving them tools that they have to go
and study for years and years in order to use.
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我們不會提供他們那些需要花好幾年才能學會使用的工具。
我們提供的工具只需幾分鐘就可以學會操作。
07:40
They're tools that they can just learn
how to operate in a few minutes.
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07:43
There's two great forces
that are both volitional but inevitable.
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這世界上有兩種必須出現、無法避免的力量
07:47
That's climate change and demographics.
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那就是氣候變遷和人口變化
07:50
Demographics is really
going to change our world.
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人口的轉變將確確實實的改變我們的世界。
07:52
This is the percentage
of adults who are working age.
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這是處於工作年齡的成年人佔整體成年人數的百分比。
07:56
And it's gone down slightly
over the last 40 years.
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在過去的40年中輕微的下跌
但是在未來的40年,它將有顯著的變化,即便是在中國。
07:59
But over the next 40 years, it's going
to change dramatically, even in China.
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處於工作年齡的成年人比例將顯著下降。
08:03
The percentage of adults who are working
age drops dramatically.
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08:08
And turned up the other way, the people
who are retirement age goes up very, very fast,
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另一方面,隨著嬰兒潮一代逐步步入退休年齡,
08:13
as the baby boomers get to retirement age.
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處於退休年齡的人將越來越多。
08:17
That means there will be more people
with fewer social security dollars
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那意味著將有更多的人需要服務
08:20
competing for services.
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社會福利的資金卻會減少
08:23
But more than that, as we get
older we get more frail
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不止如此,隨著年齡的增長,我們將變得更加脆弱
08:27
and we can't do all the tasks
we used to do.
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以至於我們沒辦法完成那些我們曾經可以做到的事情。
08:29
If we look at the statistics
on the ages of caregivers,
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如果我們看一下社工的年齡統計數據,
08:33
before our eyes those caregivers
are getting older and older.
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我們所看到的是這些社工正變得越來越年長。
08:38
That's happening statistically right now.
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而統計結果也正表明了這一點。
08:40
And as the number of people who are older,
above retirement age and getting older, as they increase,
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隨著那些越發年邁的退休者的數量的增加,
08:46
there will be less people
to take care of them.
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能夠照顧他們的人缺日趨減少。
08:48
And I think we're really going
to have to have robots to help us.
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所以我們真切的感受到
我們不得不讓機器人去幫助他們。
我並不是在說機器人伴侶。
08:51
And I don't mean robots
in terms of companions.
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08:53
I mean robots doing the things
that we normally do for ourselves
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我指的是有機器人來做一些
一般我們可以自己完成
08:57
but get harder as we get older.
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但隨著年齡增長變得艱難的日常瑣事。
08:58
Getting the groceries in from the car,
up the stairs, into the kitchen.
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例如將食物從車裡搬出來,上樓搬進廚房。
或者,等我們再老一點,
09:02
Or even, as we get very much older,
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09:04
driving our cars to go visit people.
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開著車去見朋友。
09:07
And I think robotics gives people a chance
to have dignity as they get older
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我認為通過控制機器人解決問題
09:13
by having control of the robotic solution.
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那些年邁的人將獲得更多尊嚴。
09:17
So they don't have to rely on people
that are getting scarcer to help them.
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因此他們不用在依靠那些日漸稀缺的人們去幫助他們。
09:20
And so I really think that we're
going to be spending more time
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我相信我們將與 Baxter 這樣的機器人
09:27
with robots like Baxter
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一起度過更多的時間
09:29
and working with robots like Baxter
in our daily lives. And that we will --
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並在日常生活中與像 Baxter 這樣的機器人合作。
09:36
Here, Baxter, it's good.
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看,Baxter,它很不錯。
09:38
And that we will all come to rely
on robots over the next 40 years
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在接下來的40年中
我們都會需要依賴機器人
09:43
as part of our everyday lives.
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它將成為我們日常生活的一部分
09:45
Thanks very much.
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謝謝各位
09:46
(Applause)
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(掌聲)
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