Rodney Brooks: Why we will rely on robots

194,893 views ・ 2013-06-28

TED


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Translator: Bledar Horeshka Reviewer: Helena Bedalli
00:13
Well, Arthur C. Clarke,
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Arthur C.Clarke,
00:14
a famous science fiction writer from the 1950s,
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nje shkrimtar fantastiko shkencor i viteve 1950,
00:17
said that, "We overestimate technology in the short term,
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ka thene qe, "E mbivleresojme teknologjine ne terma afatshkurter,
00:21
and we underestimate it in the long term."
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dhe e nenvleresojme ate ne terma afatgjate".
00:24
And I think that's some of the fear that we see
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Mendoj qe kjo vjen ca nga frika qe kemi
00:26
about jobs disappearing from artificial intelligence and robots.
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se punet po zhduken per shkak te inteligjences artificiale dhe roboteve.
00:31
That we're overestimating the technology in the short term.
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Ne e mbivleresojme teknologjine ne terma afatshkurter.
Por jam i shqetesuar nese do te kemi teknologjine qe na nevojitet ne terma afatgjate.
00:34
But I am worried whether we're going to get the technology we need in the long term.
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00:39
Because the demographics are really going to leave us with lots of jobs that need doing
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Per shkak se demografia do te na lere shume pune qe duhen bere
00:45
and that we, our society, is going to have to be built on the shoulders of steel of robots in the future.
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dhe ne, shoqeria jone, do te mbeshtetemi tek krahet prej çeliku te roboteve ne te ardhmen.
00:50
So I'm scared we won't have enough robots.
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Keshtu qe kam frike se nuk do kemi robote te mjaftueshem.
00:53
But fear of losing jobs to technology has been around for a long time.
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Por frika per humbjen e puneve per shkak te teknologjise ka ekzistuar per nje kohe te gjate.
00:57
Back in 1957, there was a Spencer Tracy, Katharine Hepburn movie.
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Ne 1957, ishte nje film me Spencer Tracy dhe Katherine Hepburn.
01:01
So you know how it ended up,
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Ju e dini si perfundoi,
01:03
Spencer Tracy brought a computer, a mainframe computer of 1957, in
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Spencer Tracy mori nje kompjuter, nje mainframe te vitit 1957,
01:07
to help the librarians.
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per te ndihmuar punonjesit e biblotekave.
01:09
The librarians in the company would do things like answer for the executives,
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Keto biblotekare u pergjigjeshin pyetjeve te drejtoreve,
"Cilet jane emrat e drerit te Santa"?
01:13
"What are the names of Santa's reindeer?"
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01:16
And they would look that up.
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Dhe ato e kerkonin pergjigjen.
01:17
And this mainframe computer was going to help them with that job.
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Ai kompjuter mainframe do t'i ndihmonte ne kete pune.
01:20
Well of course a mainframe computer in 1957 wasn't much use for that job.
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Sigurisht qe nje mainframe ne 1957 nuk ishte aq e nevojshme per ate pune.
01:24
The librarians were afraid their jobs were going to disappear.
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Biblotekaret ishin te frikesuar qe profesioni i tyre do te zhdukej.
01:27
But that's not what happened in fact.
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Por kjo nuk ndodhi ne fakt.
01:29
The number of jobs for librarians increased for a long time after 1957.
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Numri i puneve per biblotekaret u rrit per nje kohe te gjate pas 1957.
01:34
It wasn't until the Internet came into play,
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Vetem atehere kur u fut ne loje Interneti,
01:37
the web came into play and search engines came into play
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web-i dhe motorret e kerkimit
01:40
that the need for librarians went down.
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qe u ul nevoja per biblotekaret.
01:42
And I think everyone from 1957 totally underestimated
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Mendoj qe cdokush ne 1957 e nenvleresoi teresisht
01:46
the level of technology we would all carry around in our hands and in our pockets today.
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nivelin e teknologjise qe mbajme sot ne duart dhe xhepat tone.
01:51
And we can just ask: "What are the names of Santa's reindeer?" and be told instantly --
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Ne thjesht mund te pyesim: "Cilet jane emrat e drereve te Santa?" dhe na tregohet ne çast--
01:57
or anything else we want to ask.
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ose gjithcka tjeter qe duam te pyesim.
01:59
By the way, the wages for librarians went up faster
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Me qe ra fjala, rrogat e biblotekareve u rriten me shpejt
02:04
than the wages for other jobs in the U.S. over that same time period,
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se rrogat e profesioneve te tjera ne Sh.B.A ne te njejten periudhe kohe,
sepse biblotekaret u bene partnerë me kompjuterat.
02:08
because librarians became partners of computers.
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02:11
Computers became tools, and they got more tools that they could use
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Kompjuterat u bene mjete, dhe ato kishin me shume mjete per te perdorur
02:14
and become more effective during that time.
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dhe u bene me te efektshem gjate asaj kohe.
02:16
Same thing happened in offices.
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E njejta gje ndodhi ne zyra.
02:18
Back in the old days, people used spreadsheets.
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Ne kohet e vjetra, njerezit perdornin tabela.
02:20
Spreadsheets were spread sheets of paper,
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Tabelat jane letra,
02:22
and they calculated by hand.
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dhe ato i kryenin llogaritjet me dore.
02:25
But here was an interesting thing that came along.
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Ketu ndodhi dicka interesante.
02:27
With the revolution around 1980 of P.C.'s,
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Me revolucionin e kompjuterave personal rreth viteve 1980
02:29
the spreadsheet programs were tuned for office workers,
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programet tabelore u pershtaten per zyrtaret,
02:34
not to replace office workers,
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jo per t'i zevendesuar zyrtaret,
02:36
but it respected office workers as being capable of being programmers.
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por i respektoi zyrtaret si te afte per te qene programues.
02:40
So office workers became programmers of spreadsheets.
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Keshtu qe zyrtaret u bene programues te tabelave.
02:43
It increased their capabilities.
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Kjo i rriti aftesite e tyre.
02:45
They no longer had to do the mundane computations,
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Ato nuk kishin me nevoje te benin llogarite e rendomta,
02:48
but they could do something much more.
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ato mund benin shume me teper.
02:51
Now today, we're starting to see robots in our lives.
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Ne sot, po fillojme te shohim robotet ne jetet tona.
02:54
On the left there is the PackBot from iRobot.
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Ne te majte eshte PackBot nga iRobot.
02:57
When soldiers came across roadside bombs in Iraq and Afghanistan,
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Kur ushtaret ndeshnin bomba ne rruge ne Irak dhe Afganistan,
03:00
instead of putting on a bomb suit and going out and poking with a stick,
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ne vend te vishnin kostumin kundereksploziv dhe ta "ngacmonin me shkop",
03:04
as they used to do up until about 2002,
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sic benin deri nga viti 2002,
03:06
they now send the robot out.
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ata tani dergojne robotet.
03:08
So the robot takes over the dangerous jobs.
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Keshtu roboti ben punet e rrezikshme.
03:10
On the right are some TUGs from a company called Aethon in Pittsburgh.
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Ne te djathte jane ca TUG-e nga nje kompani e quajtur Aethon ne Pittsburg.
03:15
These are in hundreds of hospitals across the U.S.
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Keto ndodhen ne qindra spitale ne te gjithe Shtetet e Bashkuara.
03:17
And they take the dirty sheets down to the laundry.
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Ato çojne çarçafet e palare ne lavanteri.
03:20
They take the dirty dishes back to the kitchen.
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Ato i cojne enët e palara ne kuzhine.
03:21
They bring the medicines up from the pharmacy.
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Ato sjellin ilacet nga farmacia.
03:24
And it frees up the nurses and the nurse's aides
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Kjo u mundeson infermiereve dhe asistenteve te tyre
03:26
from doing that mundane work of just mechanically pushing stuff around
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qe te mos bejne pune te rendomta duke çuar gjera sa andej ketej
03:30
to spend more time with patients.
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por te harxhojne me shume kohe me pacientet.
03:32
In fact, robots have become sort of ubiquitous in our lives in many ways.
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Ne fakt, robotet jane bere prezent ne jetet tona ne shume menyra.
03:37
But I think when it comes to factory robots, people are sort of afraid,
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Por mendoj qe kur behet fjale per robote fabrikash, njerezit jane disi te frikesuar,
03:42
because factory robots are dangerous to be around.
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sepse ata jane te rrezikshem nese ndodhesh prane tyre.
03:46
In order to program them, you have to understand six-dimensional vectors and quaternions.
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Per t'i programuar ata, duhet qe te kuptoni vektoret 6-dimensionale dhe kuaternionet.
03:51
And ordinary people can't interact with them.
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Dhe njerezit e zakonshem s'mund te nderveprojne me ta.
03:54
And I think it's the sort of technology that's gone wrong.
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Keshtu kjo eshte teknologji e çuar dëm.
03:57
It's displaced the worker from the technology.
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E ka zhvendosur punetorin nga teknologjia.
04:00
And I think we really have to look at technologies
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Mendoj qe duhet me te vertete te shikojme teknologjite
04:04
that ordinary workers can interact with.
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me te cilat punetoret e zakoshem mund te nderveprojne.
04:06
And so I want to tell you today about Baxter, which we've been talking about.
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Dhe keshtu dua t'iu tregoj sot per Baxter, per te cilin kemi folur.
04:09
And Baxter, I see, as a way -- a first wave of robot
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Baxter, e shikoj si valen e pare te roboteve me te cilet
04:14
that ordinary people can interact with in an industrial setting.
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njerezit e zakonshem mund te nderveprojne ne ambjente industriale.
04:18
So Baxter is up here.
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Baxter eshte ketu lart.
04:19
This is Chris Harbert from Rethink Robotics.
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Ky eshte Chris Harbert nga Rethink Robotics.
04:22
We've got a conveyor there.
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Kemi nje transportues aty.
04:24
And if the lighting isn't too extreme --
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Dhe nese ndricimi nuk eshte shume ekstrem --
04:27
Ah, ah! There it is. It's picked up the object off the conveyor.
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Aha! Ja ku eshte. E ka ngritur objektin nga transportuesi.
04:31
It's going to come bring it over here and put it down.
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Do te vije dhe ta sjelle ketu.
04:34
And then it'll go back, reach for another object.
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Pastaj do kthehet, te kape nje objekt tjeter.
04:37
The interesting thing is Baxter has some basic common sense.
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Gjeja interesante eshte se Baxter ne thelb eshte praktik.
04:41
By the way, what's going on with the eyes?
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Me qe ra fjala, cfare po ndodh me syte?
04:43
The eyes are on the screen there.
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Syte jane atje tek ekrani.
Syte shikojne perpara atje kur roboti do beje dicka.
04:45
The eyes look ahead where the robot's going to move.
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04:47
So a person that's interacting with the robot
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Keshtu nje person qe po ndervepron me robotin
04:49
understands where it's going to reach and isn't surprised by its motions.
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e kupton se ku do te shkoje roboti dhe nuk habitet nga levizjet e tij.
04:53
Here Chris took the object out of its hand,
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Ketu Chris ja mori objektin robotit,
04:55
and Baxter didn't go and try to put it down;
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dhe Baxter nuk u perpoq ta ule poshte.
04:58
it went back and realized it had to get another one.
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e kuptoi qe duhej te merrte nje tjeter.
05:00
It's got a little bit of basic common sense, goes and picks the objects.
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Ka nje sens praktik, shkon dhe merr objektet.
05:03
And Baxter's safe to interact with.
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Dhe Baxter eshte i parrezikshem per te ndervepruar me te.
05:05
You wouldn't want to do this with a current industrial robot.
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Nuk do donit ta beni kete me nje robot industrial.
05:08
But with Baxter it doesn't hurt.
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Por me Baxter nuk ka problem.
05:10
It feels the force, understands that Chris is there
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Ai e ndjen forcen, e kupton qe Chris eshte aty
05:14
and doesn't push through him and hurt him.
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dhe nuk e shtyn dhe ta lendoje.
05:17
But I think the most interesting thing about Baxter is the user interface.
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Por mendoj qe gjeja me interesante rreth Baxter eshte nderfaqja e perdoruesit.
05:20
And so Chris is going to come and grab the other arm now.
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Keshtu Chris do te vije te kape krahun tjeter tani.
05:23
And when he grabs an arm, it goes into zero-force gravity-compensated mode
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Dhe kur i kap nje krah, ai shkon ne nje gjendje graviteti te kompensuar dhe zero-force
05:29
and graphics come up on the screen.
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dhe grafiket shfaqen ne ekran.
05:31
You can see some icons on the left of the screen there for what was about its right arm.
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Mund te shikoni disa ikona ne te majte te ekranit qe kane te bejne me krahun e djathte.
05:35
He's going to put something in its hand, he's going to bring it over here,
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Ai do te mare dicka ne doren e tij, do ta sjelle ate ketu,
do te shtype nje buton dhe ta lere ate gje.
05:39
press a button and let go of that thing in the hand.
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05:43
And the robot figures out, ah, he must mean I want to put stuff down.
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Roboti e kupton, ah, ai e ka fjalen qe une duhet ta leshoj objektin.
05:48
It puts a little icon there.
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Vendos nje ikon te vogel aty.
05:49
He comes over here, and he gets the fingers to grasp together,
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Ai vjen ketu, dhe i bashkon gishtat,
05:55
and the robot infers, ah, you want an object for me to pick up.
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dhe roboti konkludon, aha, ti do qe une te ngre nje objekt.
05:59
That puts the green icon there.
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Dhe vendos ikonen jeshile.
06:01
He's going to map out an area of where the robot should pick up the object from.
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Ai do te percaktoje nje zone nga ku roboti duhet te ngreje objekte.
06:06
It just moves it around, and the robot figures out that was an area search.
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E leviz pak dhe roboti e kupton qe ishte nje kerkim zone.
06:11
He didn't have to select that from a menu.
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Ai nuk kishte nevoje ta zgjedhe kete nga nje menu.
06:13
And now he's going to go off and train the visual appearance of that object
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Dhe tani ai do filloje dhe trajnoje pamjen visuale te atij objekti
06:16
while we continue talking.
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nderkohe qe ne vazhdojme te flasim.
06:18
So as we continue here,
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Ndersa ne vazhdojme ketu,
06:20
I want to tell you about what this is like in factories.
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dua t'iu tregoj si ndodh kjo ne fabrika.
06:22
These robots we're shipping every day.
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Keto robote ne i shesim cdo dite.
06:23
They go to factories around the country.
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Ato dergohen ne fabrika ne te gjithe shtetin.
06:25
This is Mildred.
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Ky eshte Mildred.
06:26
Mildred's a factory worker in Connecticut.
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Mildred eshte nje punetor ne fabrike ne Connecticut.
06:28
She's worked on the line for over 20 years.
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Ajo ka punuar ne vijen e fabrikes per 20 vjet.
Nje ore pasi shikoi robotin e saj te pare industrial,
06:31
One hour after she saw her first industrial robot,
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06:33
she had programmed it to do some tasks in the factory.
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ajo e kishte programuar ate qe te beje disa pune ne fabrike.
06:37
She decided she really liked robots.
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Aje vendosi qe me te vertete i donte robotet.
06:39
And it was doing the simple repetitive tasks that she had had to do beforehand.
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Roboti do bente detyrat e thjeshta te perseritura qe ajo i bente me pare.
06:44
Now she's got the robot doing it.
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Tani ajo ka robotin qe i ben ato.
06:45
When we first went out to talk to people in factories
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Kur shkuam ne fillim te flasim me njerez ne fabrika
06:48
about how we could get robots to interact with them better,
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rreth asaj se si mund t'i benim robotet te ndervepronin me ta me mire,
06:51
one of the questions we asked them was,
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nje nga pyetjet qe u beme ishte,
"A doni qe femijet tuaj te punojne ne fabrike?"
06:53
"Do you want your children to work in a factory?"
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06:55
The universal answer was "No, I want a better job than that for my children."
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Te tere thane "Jo, dua nje pune me te mire per femijet e mi."
06:59
And as a result of that, Mildred is very typical
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Si rezultat i asaj, Mildred eshte shume i ngjashem
07:03
of today's factory workers in the U.S.
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me punetoret e sotem te fabrikave ne SH.B.A.
07:04
They're older, and they're getting older and older.
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Ata jane me te vjeter dhe po behen cdo dite e me te vjeter.
07:07
There aren't many young people coming into factory work.
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Nuk ka shume te rinj qe po vijne te punojne ne fabrike.
Nderkohe qe punet e tyre po behen me te renda,
07:10
And as their tasks become more onerous on them,
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07:13
we need to give them tools that they can collaborate with,
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ne duhet t'iu sigurojme atyre mjete me te cilat mund te bashkepunojne
07:16
so that they can be part of the solution,
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ne menyre qe te jene pjese e zgjidhjes,
qe te vazhdojne te punojne dhe ne te vazhdojme te prodhojme ne SH.B.A.
07:18
so that they can continue to work and we can continue to produce in the U.S.
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07:22
And so our vision is that Mildred who's the line worker
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Dhe vizioni jone eshte se Mildred qe eshte punetor linje
07:26
becomes Mildred the robot trainer.
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behet Mildred trajnuesi i roboteve.
07:29
She lifts her game,
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Ajo del e fituar,
07:30
like the office workers of the 1980s lifted their game of what they could do.
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po ashtu si zyrtaret e viteve 1980 dolen te fituar me ato qe mund te benin.
07:35
We're not giving them tools that they have to go and study for years and years in order to use.
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Nuk po u japim atyre mjete qe duhet te studiojne per vite me rradhe qe te mesojne t'i perdorin.
Ato jane mjete qe mund te mesojne t'i perdorin ne pak minuta.
07:40
They're tools that they can just learn how to operate in a few minutes.
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07:43
There's two great forces that are both volitional but inevitable.
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Ka dy forca te medha qe jane edhe te vullnetshme dhe te pashmangshme.
07:47
That's climate change and demographics.
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Ato jane ndryshimi klimaterik dhe demografia.
07:50
Demographics is really going to change our world.
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Demografia me te vertete do te ndryshoje boten tone.
07:52
This is the percentage of adults who are working age.
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Kjo eshte perqindja e te rriturve qe jane moshe pune.
07:56
And it's gone down slightly over the last 40 years.
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Eshte ulur pak gjate 40 viteve te fundit.
Por gjate 40 viteve te tjera do te ndryshoje ne menyre dramatike, madje edhe ne Kine.
07:59
But over the next 40 years, it's going to change dramatically, even in China.
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Perqindja e te rriturve qe jane moshe pune po bie ne menyre dramatike.
08:03
The percentage of adults who are working age drops dramatically.
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08:08
And turned up the other way, the people who are retirement age goes up very, very fast,
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Dhe eshte kthyer ne drejtim te kundert, njerezit qe jane moshe pensioni po rriten shume shpejt,
08:13
as the baby boomers get to retirement age.
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ndersa "baby boomers" po behen moshe pensioni.
08:17
That means there will be more people with fewer social security dollars
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Kjo do te thote qe do kete me shume njerez me pensione me te vogla
08:20
competing for services.
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qe garojne per sherbime.
08:23
But more than that, as we get older we get more frail
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Per me teper, ndersa vjeterohemi ne behemi me te dobet
08:27
and we can't do all the tasks we used to do.
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dhe s'mund te bejme te gjitha gjerat qe benim me pare.
08:29
If we look at the statistics on the ages of caregivers,
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Nese shikojme statistikat per moshat e kujdestareve personale,
08:33
before our eyes those caregivers are getting older and older.
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para syve tone ato kujdestare personale po vjeterohen gjithmone e me teper.
08:38
That's happening statistically right now.
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Kjo po ndodh statistkisht pikerisht tani.
08:40
And as the number of people who are older, above retirement age and getting older, as they increase,
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Ndersa numri i njerezve te vjeter, mbi moshen e pensionit po rritet,
08:46
there will be less people to take care of them.
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do kete me pak njerez per t'u kujdesur per ta.
08:48
And I think we're really going to have to have robots to help us.
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Une mendoj qe ne me te vertete do te kemi robote per te na ndihmuar.
Nuk e kam fjalen per robote si shoqerues.
08:51
And I don't mean robots in terms of companions.
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08:53
I mean robots doing the things that we normally do for ourselves
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E kam fjalen per robote qe bejne gjerat qe ne normalisht i bejme per veten
08:57
but get harder as we get older.
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por veshtiresohen ndersa plakemi.
08:58
Getting the groceries in from the car, up the stairs, into the kitchen.
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Marrja e ushqimeve nga makina, ngjitja e shkalleve dhe vendosja e tyre ne kuzhine.
Ose madje, nderkohe qe vjeterohemi me shume,
09:02
Or even, as we get very much older,
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09:04
driving our cars to go visit people.
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drejtimi i makinave kur shkojme te vizitojme njerezit.
09:07
And I think robotics gives people a chance to have dignity as they get older
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Mendoj qe robotika u jep njerezve nje mundesi per dinjitet ndersa vjeterohen
09:13
by having control of the robotic solution.
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duke pasur kontroll mbi zgjidhjen robotike.
09:17
So they don't have to rely on people that are getting scarcer to help them.
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Keshtu ata s'kane pse te mbeshteten tek njerezit qe po behen te rralle per t'i ndihmuar.
09:20
And so I really think that we're going to be spending more time
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Keshtu qe mendoj qe do harxhojme me shume kohe
09:27
with robots like Baxter
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me robote si Baxter
09:29
and working with robots like Baxter in our daily lives. And that we will --
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dhe duke punuar me robote si Baxter ne jeten e perditshme. Dhe qe ne do te ...
09:36
Here, Baxter, it's good.
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Ketu, Baxter, ne rregull.
09:38
And that we will all come to rely on robots over the next 40 years
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Ne te gjithe do te fillojme te mbeshtetemi tek robotet gjate 40 viteve te ardhshme
09:43
as part of our everyday lives.
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si pjese te jetes sone te perditshme.
09:45
Thanks very much.
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Shume faleminderit.
09:46
(Applause)
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(Duartrokitje)
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