Rodney Brooks: Why we will rely on robots

翻译人员: Yan SU 校对人员: Li Li

Well, Arthur C. Clarke,

亚瑟·查理斯·克拉克，

a famous science fiction writer from the 1950s,

是上个世纪五十年代的一位著名科幻小说作家，

said that, "We overestimate technology in the short term,

他曾说：“从短期来看，我们高估了科技；

and we underestimate it in the long term."

而从长远来看，我们又低估了科技。“

And I think that's some of the fear that we see

我认为我们担心工作会消失的部分焦虑

about jobs disappearing from artificial intelligence and robots.

来自对人工智能和机器人的恐惧。

That we're overestimating the technology in the short term.

可以说，我们在短时间内正在高估科技。

不过我担心的是，而从长远来看，我们能不能获得所需要的科技。

But I am worried whether we're going to get the technology we need in the long term.

Because the demographics are really going to leave us with lots of jobs that need doing

因为人口结构的改变真的会留给我们一大堆的工作去做。

and that we, our society, is going to have to be built on the shoulders of steel of robots in the future.

我们将不得不依靠机器人的“钢铁臂膀”去建造我们未来的社会。

So I'm scared we won't have enough robots.

所以我担心未来会没有足够的机器人。

But fear of losing jobs to technology has been around for a long time.

但是担心因科技而丢掉工作的恐惧为时已久。

Back in 1957, there was a Spencer Tracy, Katharine Hepburn movie.

早在1957年，有一部由史宾塞·屈赛和凯瑟琳·赫本主演的电影《电脑风云（Desk Set）》。

So you know how it ended up,

你们一定知道结局如何，

Spencer Tracy brought a computer, a mainframe computer of 1957, in

史宾塞·屈赛买了一台电脑，一台1957年的大型电脑，

to help the librarians.

用来帮助图书管理员。

The librarians in the company would do things like answer for the executives,

那家公司的图书管理员的工作是回答高管们的问题：

“圣诞老人的驯鹿叫什么名字呀？”

"What are the names of Santa's reindeer?"

And they would look that up.

然后他们会去查一查。

And this mainframe computer was going to help them with that job.

这台大型电脑会帮他们干那样的活儿。

Well of course a mainframe computer in 1957 wasn't much use for that job.

当然了，1957年的一台大型电脑根本干不了那样的活儿。

The librarians were afraid their jobs were going to disappear.

但是图书管理员们还是担心会丢掉他们的工作。

But that's not what happened in fact.

其实根本没有担心的必要。

The number of jobs for librarians increased for a long time after 1957.

1957年后很长的一段时间里，图书管理员的工作数量有所提高。

It wasn't until the Internet came into play,

直到互联网、

the web came into play and search engines came into play

网站和各种搜索引擎走进人们的生活，

that the need for librarians went down.

对图书管理员的需求才开始减少。

And I think everyone from 1957 totally underestimated

我认为1957年的每一个人都彻底低估了

the level of technology we would all carry around in our hands and in our pockets today.

我们今天的科技水平。比如掌上科技，

And we can just ask: "What are the names of Santa's reindeer?" and be told instantly --

我们今天可以对着手机说：“圣诞老人的驯鹿叫什么名字？”马上就能得到答案……

or anything else we want to ask.

问什么都行。

By the way, the wages for librarians went up faster

顺便说一下，图书管理员们的工资涨得

than the wages for other jobs in the U.S. over that same time period,

比美国同期其他工作的工资要快，

因为图书管理员成了电脑们的搭档。

because librarians became partners of computers.

Computers became tools, and they got more tools that they could use

电脑成了工具，图书管理员们有了更多可用工具后，

and become more effective during that time.

他们的工作效率大大提高。

Same thing happened in offices.

这种事儿也发生在办公室里。

Back in the old days, people used spreadsheets.

过去，人们使用报表。

Spreadsheets were spread sheets of paper,

就是那种纸制棋盘式对照表格，

and they calculated by hand.

用于笔算。

But here was an interesting thing that came along.

之后发生了一件有意思的事情。

With the revolution around 1980 of P.C.'s,

随着二十世纪八十年代的个人电脑革命，

the spreadsheet programs were tuned for office workers,

电子表格软件不但没有取代办公室一族，

not to replace office workers,

反倒受到了他们的青睐，

but it respected office workers as being capable of being programmers.

办公族摇身变为程序设计师，

So office workers became programmers of spreadsheets.

他们成了电子表格的程序设计师。

It increased their capabilities.

电子表格增强了他们的能力。

They no longer had to do the mundane computations,

办公族再也不用做无聊的笔算，

but they could do something much more.

他们可以做更多的事儿。

Now today, we're starting to see robots in our lives.

如今，我们开始审视机器人在我们生活中的作用。

On the left there is the PackBot from iRobot.

左边的是由iRobot公司研发的PackBot机器人。

When soldiers came across roadside bombs in Iraq and Afghanistan,

以前，当士兵们在伊拉克和阿富汗遇到路边炸弹时，

instead of putting on a bomb suit and going out and poking with a stick,

他们会穿上防爆衣并后退，然后用小棍儿去捅炸弹，

as they used to do up until about 2002,

在2002年以前他们就是这么干的，

they now send the robot out.

现在，他们会让机器人去搞定。

So the robot takes over the dangerous jobs.

可见，机器人接管了危险性工作。

On the right are some TUGs from a company called Aethon in Pittsburgh.

右边的是位于匹兹堡的Aethon公司研制的TUG机器人。

These are in hundreds of hospitals across the U.S.

美国有数百家医院正在使用这种机器人。

And they take the dirty sheets down to the laundry.

它们把脏布单送进洗衣房；

They take the dirty dishes back to the kitchen.

它们把脏盘子送回厨房；

They bring the medicines up from the pharmacy.

它们从药房取药；

And it frees up the nurses and the nurse's aides

而且这种机器人可以让护士和护士助手

from doing that mundane work of just mechanically pushing stuff around

从机械无聊的跑腿工作中解脱出来

to spend more time with patients.

好腾出他们的时间去照顾病人。

In fact, robots have become sort of ubiquitous in our lives in many ways.

事实上，机器人已经存在于我们生活中的许多方面，差不多是无处不在。

But I think when it comes to factory robots, people are sort of afraid,

但是，我感觉，工业机器人还是会让人生畏，

because factory robots are dangerous to be around.

因为旁边有工业机器人会让人感觉很危险。

In order to program them, you have to understand six-dimensional vectors and quaternions.

因为要想对它们进行编程，你就必须懂得六维向量和四元数。

And ordinary people can't interact with them.

一般人没法与这些工业机器人交互。

And I think it's the sort of technology that's gone wrong.

我觉得这种科技走错了方向。

It's displaced the worker from the technology.

因为这种科技取代了工作者。

And I think we really have to look at technologies

我们真正需要的是

that ordinary workers can interact with.

那种可以和普通工作者互动的科技。

And so I want to tell you today about Baxter, which we've been talking about.

所以我今天要隆重推荐巴克斯特（Baxter），它是我们需要的那种工业机器人。

And Baxter, I see, as a way -- a first wave of robot

我认为巴克斯特掀起了第一个机器人浪潮——

that ordinary people can interact with in an industrial setting.

一个普通人可以和工业装置互动的浪潮。

So Baxter is up here.

让我们请出巴克斯特。

This is Chris Harbert from Rethink Robotics.

这位是克里斯·哈伯特，他为Rethink Robotics公司工作。

We've got a conveyor there.

那边有个输送带。

And if the lighting isn't too extreme --

光线是不是太强了……

Ah, ah! There it is. It's picked up the object off the conveyor.

啊！看那儿。它从输送带上拾起一件东西。

It's going to come bring it over here and put it down.

它把东西拿到这边，然后放下。

And then it'll go back, reach for another object.

完成后，它会回到原位再找另一件东西。

The interesting thing is Baxter has some basic common sense.

有意思的是，巴克斯特有个基本的能力。

By the way, what's going on with the eyes?

你可能要问，那对眼睛是怎么回事？

The eyes are on the screen there.

就是它屏幕上的那对眼睛。

这对眼睛会瞅着这个机器人的移动方向。

The eyes look ahead where the robot's going to move.

So a person that's interacting with the robot

这样，人们就可以和这个机器人互动

understands where it's going to reach and isn't surprised by its motions.

明白会朝什么地方移动，而不会被它的动作吓着。

Here Chris took the object out of its hand,

克里斯现在从它的“手”中拿走东西，

and Baxter didn't go and try to put it down;

巴克斯特没有去和克里斯争执。

it went back and realized it had to get another one.

它回到原位，并意识到得去拿另一件东西。

It's got a little bit of basic common sense, goes and picks the objects.

这就是它的小本事——去拾东西。

And Baxter's safe to interact with.

和巴克斯特互动是安全的。

You wouldn't want to do this with a current industrial robot.

但你肯定不敢和生产线上的工业机器人互动。

But with Baxter it doesn't hurt.

巴克斯特很温柔。

It feels the force, understands that Chris is there

它能感觉到外力，知道克里斯在旁边

and doesn't push through him and hurt him.

而且不会硬去推他或伤害他。

But I think the most interesting thing about Baxter is the user interface.

最有意思的是巴克斯特的用户界面。

And so Chris is going to come and grab the other arm now.

现在克里斯要过来握住巴克斯特的另一只“手”。

And when he grabs an arm, it goes into zero-force gravity-compensated mode

当他握住它的”手“时，它会进入“零力重力补偿”模式

and graphics come up on the screen.

各种图案会显示在它的屏幕上。

You can see some icons on the left of the screen there for what was about its right arm.

你可以看到屏幕左边有一些图标，就是我们的右边。

He's going to put something in its hand, he's going to bring it over here,

克里斯要把一件东西塞到它的“手”里，他要把它挪到这儿，

按一下按钮，然后放下“手”里的东西。

press a button and let go of that thing in the hand.

And the robot figures out, ah, he must mean I want to put stuff down.

这个机器人明白了，啊，他是想让我把东西放下。

It puts a little icon there.

它在那个位置上放一个小图标。

He comes over here, and he gets the fingers to grasp together,

克里斯走过来，他把机器人的“手指”握起来，

and the robot infers, ah, you want an object for me to pick up.

机器人会推断，啊，你想让我拾起一件东西。

That puts the green icon there.

然后在那个位置放一个绿色图标。

He's going to map out an area of where the robot should pick up the object from.

他会划出机器人应该拾东西的区域。

It just moves it around, and the robot figures out that was an area search.

机器人会在那个区域搜索要拾的东西。

He didn't have to select that from a menu.

克里斯其实不用从菜单里选择。

And now he's going to go off and train the visual appearance of that object

现在他得在后面训练那件东西的视觉显示

while we continue talking.

我们在前面继续讲。

So as we continue here,

我们继续，

I want to tell you about what this is like in factories.

我想告诉你们这个机器人在生产车间里的使用情况。

These robots we're shipping every day.

我们每天都会运出这些机器人。

They go to factories around the country.

它们会被送往全国各地的生产车间。

This is Mildred.

这位是米尔德蕾。

Mildred's a factory worker in Connecticut.

米尔德蕾是康涅狄格州一家工厂的工人。

She's worked on the line for over 20 years.

她已经在生产线上工作了20年。

在她见到她的第一个工业机器人的一个小时候后，

One hour after she saw her first industrial robot,

she had programmed it to do some tasks in the factory.

她就已经给它布置了车间里的一些活儿。

She decided she really liked robots.

她于是喜欢上了机器人。

And it was doing the simple repetitive tasks that she had had to do beforehand.

因为机器人可以帮她干以前要她去做的那些简单重复的活儿。

Now she's got the robot doing it.

现在，她可以让机器人去搞定。

When we first went out to talk to people in factories

我们第一次到生产车间里和人们交谈的时候

about how we could get robots to interact with them better,

就是谈谈我们怎么才能让这些机器人和它们更好的互动，

one of the questions we asked them was,

我们问的其中一个问题是，

“你们想不想让你们的孩子在工厂里工作？”

"Do you want your children to work in a factory?"

The universal answer was "No, I want a better job than that for my children."

异口同声的回答是：“不想，我想让我的孩子有份比那种好的工作。”

And as a result of that, Mildred is very typical

可想而知，米尔德蕾是典型的

of today's factory workers in the U.S.

美国当今的工厂工人。

They're older, and they're getting older and older.

这些工人日渐衰老。

There aren't many young people coming into factory work.

但是没有多少年轻人到工厂工作。

她们的工作任务变得更加繁重，

And as their tasks become more onerous on them,

we need to give them tools that they can collaborate with,

我们需要提供能够协同配合他们工作的工具，

so that they can be part of the solution,

这样，这些工人就能成为解决方案的一部分，

他们能继续工作，美国就能继续生产。

so that they can continue to work and we can continue to produce in the U.S.

And so our vision is that Mildred who's the line worker

我们的目标是让像米尔德蕾这样的生产线上的工人

becomes Mildred the robot trainer.

成为机器人培训师。

She lifts her game,

米尔德蕾成为了机器人时代的玩家，

like the office workers of the 1980s lifted their game of what they could do.

就像二十世纪八十年代的办公族成为了个人电脑时代的玩家那样。

We're not giving them tools that they have to go and study for years and years in order to use.

我们不会交给他们那种要花几年时间去学才能上手的工具。

这些工具只需他们花几分钟时间就能上手。

They're tools that they can just learn how to operate in a few minutes.

There's two great forces that are both volitional but inevitable.

有两个咄咄逼人但却无法避免的强大力量，

That's climate change and demographics.

就是气候变化和人口结构的变化。

Demographics is really going to change our world.

人口结构的变化真的会改变我们的世界。

This is the percentage of adults who are working age.

这是适龄工作成年人的百分比。

And it's gone down slightly over the last 40 years.

在过去的40年里，这一百分比略有下降。

但是在未来40年里，这一百分比会发生巨大变化，即使是在中国。

But over the next 40 years, it's going to change dramatically, even in China.

适龄工作成年人的百分比急剧下降。

The percentage of adults who are working age drops dramatically.

And turned up the other way, the people who are retirement age goes up very, very fast,

从另一种方面来看，退休年龄的人数急剧上升，

as the baby boomers get to retirement age.

因为在婴儿潮时代出生的人都到了退休年龄。

That means there will be more people with fewer social security dollars

这意味着，将有越来越多的人拿到更少的社会保障金

competing for services.

去争取有限的服务。

But more than that, as we get older we get more frail

不仅如此，上了年纪以后，我们的身体也会变得更加虚弱

and we can't do all the tasks we used to do.

我们就不能再做以前能做的事儿。

If we look at the statistics on the ages of caregivers,

如果看看护理人员的年龄统计数据，

before our eyes those caregivers are getting older and older.

就会发现护理人员的年龄越来越大。

That's happening statistically right now.

这是统计学所得出来的结论。

And as the number of people who are older, above retirement age and getting older, as they increase,

随着年龄的增长，会有许多人超过退休年龄，而且他们的年纪会越来越大，

there will be less people to take care of them.

就会有越来越少的人能照顾他们。

And I think we're really going to have to have robots to help us.

我觉得，我们真得找机器人帮忙。

我不是说找机器人伴侣，

And I don't mean robots in terms of companions.

I mean robots doing the things that we normally do for ourselves

而是说让机器人帮我们干我们平时干的那些活儿

but get harder as we get older.

那些我们上年纪的时候干不好的活儿。

Getting the groceries in from the car, up the stairs, into the kitchen.

什么把买的东西从车里拿出来呀，拿上楼呀，送进厨房之类的活儿。

甚至是，当我们年事已高的时候，

Or even, as we get very much older,

driving our cars to go visit people.

让机器人开车带我们去串门。

And I think robotics gives people a chance to have dignity as they get older

我认为，机器人可以给那些上了年纪的人获得尊严的机会，

by having control of the robotic solution.

因为他们可以控制机器人解决方案。

So they don't have to rely on people that are getting scarcer to help them.

他们也就不用依靠越来越少的人去帮助他们。

And so I really think that we're going to be spending more time

我真觉得，我们可以和机器人和谐共处更长的时间，

with robots like Baxter

和像巴克斯特这样的机器人

and working with robots like Baxter in our daily lives. And that we will --

在我们的生活中一起干活儿。

Here, Baxter, it's good.

噢也，巴克斯特！

And that we will all come to rely on robots over the next 40 years

在未来40年里，我们都回需要机器人的帮助

as part of our everyday lives.

让它们在日常生活中发挥作用。

Thanks very much.

非常感谢！

(Applause)

（掌声）