Let the environment guide our development | Johan Rockstrom

427,516 views ・ 2010-08-31

TED


Please double-click on the English subtitles below to play the video.

Prevodilac: Miloš Vodogaz Lektor: Mateja Nenadovic
00:15
We live on a human-dominated planet,
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Živimo na planeti kojom dominira čovek,
00:18
putting unprecedented pressure
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vršeći nečuven pritisak
00:20
on the systems on Earth.
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na sisteme na Zemlji.
00:22
This is bad news, but perhaps surprising to you,
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Ovo su loše vesti, ali možda začuđujuće,
00:24
it's also part of the good news.
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ovo su delom i dobre vesti.
00:26
We're the first generation -- thanks to science --
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Mi smo prva generacija koja zahvaljujući nauci
00:29
to be informed that we may be
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zna da možda
00:31
undermining the stability and the ability
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potkopava stabilnost i sposobnost
00:33
of planet Earth
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planete Zemlje
00:35
to support human development as we know it.
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u cilju podupiranja ljudskog razvoja kakvog danas poznajemo.
00:37
It's also good news, because the planetary risks we're facing
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Ovo su takođe dobre vesti, jer su planetarni rizici
00:40
are so large,
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sa kojima se suočavamo toliko veliki,
00:42
that business as usual is not an option.
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da ustaljeni načini poslovanja nisu opcija.
00:44
In fact, we're in a phase
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Zapravo, nalazimo se u fazi
00:46
where transformative change is necessary,
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gde je neophodna transformacija,
00:49
which opens the window for innovation,
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koja otvara prostor za inovacije,
00:51
for new ideas and new paradigms.
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za nove ideje i nove modele.
00:54
This is a scientific journey on the challenges facing humanity
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Ovo je naučno putovanje sa izazovima koje čovečanstvo sreće
00:57
in the global phase of sustainability.
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u globalnoj fazi održivosti.
00:59
On this journey, I'd like to bring, apart from yourselves,
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Na ovom putovanju, voleo bih da vas odvojim od vas samih,
01:02
a good friend,
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od dobrog prijatelja,
01:04
a stakeholder, who's always absent
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od deoničara, koji su uvek odsutni kada se
01:06
when we deal with the negotiations on environmental issues,
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suočavamo sa pregovorima o problemima životne sredine,
01:08
a stakeholder who refuses to compromise --
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deoničar, koji odbija da se nagodi --
01:11
planet Earth.
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planeta Zemlja
01:13
So I thought I'd bring her with me today on stage,
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Mislio sam da ću je poneti sa sobom na binu,
01:16
to have her as a witness
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da bi mi bila svedok
01:18
of a remarkable journey,
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neobičnog putovanja,
01:21
which humbly reminds us
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koje nas skromno podseća
01:23
of the period of grace we've had
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na period gracioznosti koji smo imali
01:25
over the past 10,000 years.
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tokom proteklih 10.000 godina.
01:27
This is the living conditions on the planet over the last 100,000 years.
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Ovo su uslovi života na planeti tokom posledjih 100.000 godina.
01:30
It's a very important period --
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To je veoma važan period -- to je otprilike
01:32
it's roughly half the period when we've been fully modern humans on the planet.
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polovina vremena kada smo u potpunosti bili savremeni ljudi na planeti.
01:35
We've had the same, roughly, abilities
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Imali smo skoro iste sposobnosti
01:37
that developed civilizations as we know it.
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koje su razvile civilizacije kakve poznajemo danas.
01:39
This is the environmental conditions on the planet.
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Ovo su uslovi životne sredine na planeti.
01:41
Here, used as a proxy, temperature variability.
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Ovo su temperaturne razlike koje se koriste kao primer.
01:44
It was a jumpy ride. 80,000 years back in a crisis,
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Bila je to skakutava vožnja. 80.000 godina unazad u krizi,
01:47
we leave Africa, we colonize Australia
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napustili smo Afriku, kolonzovali Australiju
01:49
in another crisis, 60,000 years back,
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u narednoj krizi, 60.000 godina unazad,
01:51
we leave Asia for Europe
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napustili smo Aziju zbog Evrope
01:53
in another crisis, 40,000 years back,
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u još jednoj krizi, 40.000 godina unazad,
01:55
and then we enter
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a onda smo ušli
01:57
the remarkably stable Holocene phase,
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u izrazito stabilno razdoblje Holocena,
02:00
the only period in the whole history of the planet,
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jedini period u čitavoj istoriji planete,
02:03
that we know of, that can support human development.
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za koji znamo da može da podrži ljudski razvoj.
02:05
A thousand years into this period,
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Hiljadama godina unutar ovog perioda,
02:07
we abandon our hunting and gathering patterns.
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napuštali smo naše navike lova i sakupljanja plodova.
02:10
We go from a couple of million people
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Došli smo od nekoliko miliona ljudi
02:12
to the seven billion people we are today.
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do sedam milijardi, koliko nas ima danas.
02:14
The Mesopotamian culture: we invent agriculture,
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Kultura Mesopotamije: izumeli smo zemljoradnju,
02:16
we domesticate animals and plants.
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pripitomili životinje i biljke.
02:18
You have the Roman, the Greek and the story as you know it.
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Imate Rimljane i Grke i priču koju već znate.
02:21
The only phase, as we know it
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Jedina era, kao što znamo
02:23
that can support humanity.
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koja može podupreti čovečanstvo.
02:25
The trouble is we're putting a quadruple sqeeze
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Nevolja je u tome što četvorostruko
02:27
on this poor planet,
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više cedimo ovu jadnu planetu,
02:29
a quadruple sqeeze, which, as its first squeeze,
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četvorostruko više cedimo, što je, sa svojim prvim ceđenjem
02:32
has population growth of course.
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naravno imalo za rezultat rast populacije.
02:35
Now, this is not only about numbers;
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E sad, ne radi se samo o brojevima;
02:37
this is not only about the fact that we're seven billion people
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niti se radi o činjenici da je nas sedam milijardi ljudi
02:39
committed to nine billion people, it's an equity issue as well.
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počinjeno za devet milijardi ljudi, takođe se radi o problemu pravičnosti.
02:42
The majority of the environmental impacts on the planet
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Većina uticaja na životnu sredinu na planeti
02:44
have been caused by the rich minority,
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izazvana je bogatom manjinom,
02:46
the 20 percent that jumped onto the industrial bandwagon
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20 procenata onih koji su se okoristili
02:48
in the mid-18th century.
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na početku 18. veka.
02:50
The majority of the planet,
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Većina planete,
02:52
aspiring for development, having the right for development,
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težeći ka razvoju, imajući pravo na razvoj,
02:54
are in large aspiring for an unsustainable lifestyle,
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je u velikoj težnji za neodrživim životnim stilom,
02:57
a momentous pressure.
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to je trenutni pritisak.
02:59
The second pressure on the planet is, of course the climate agenda --
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Drugi pritisak na planetu je, naravno klimatska agenda -
03:01
the big issue -- where the policy interpretation of science
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veliki problem -- gde se politika svodi na to
03:03
is that it would be enough
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da bi bilo dovoljno 450 ppm (jedinica koncentracije)
03:05
to stabilize greenhouse gases at 450 ppm
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za ublažavanje efekata staklene bašte,
03:08
to avoid average temperatures
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da bi se izbeglo da se prosečne temperature
03:10
exceeding two degrees,
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povise za dva stepena;
03:12
to avoid the risk that we may be destabilizing
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da bi se izbegli rizici za moguću destabilizaciju
03:14
the West Antarctic Ice Sheet,
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zapadno antarktičkog ledenog štita,
03:16
holding six meters -- level rising,
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čija je trenutna debljina šest metara, a nivo raste;
03:18
the risk of destabilizing the Greenland Ice Sheet,
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rizik od destabilizacije ledenog štita na Grenlandu,
03:20
holding another seven meters -- sea level rising.
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koji sadrži još sedam metara -- nivo mora raste.
03:22
Now, you would have wished the climate pressure
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Zaželeli biste da pritisak klime
03:24
to hit a strong planet, a resilient planet,
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pogodi planetu koja je jaka i otporna,
03:26
but unfortunately, the third pressure
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ali na žalost, treći pritisak
03:28
is the ecosystem decline.
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je smanjenje ekosistema.
03:30
Never have we seen, in the past 50 years,
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Nikada nismo videli, u poslednjih 50 godina,
03:32
such a sharp decline
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tako oštar pad
03:34
of ecosystem functions and services on the planet,
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funkcija i usluga ekosistema na planeti,
03:37
one of them being the ability to regulate climate on the long term,
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kao što je dugoročna sposobnost regulisanja klime,
03:40
in our forests, land and biodiversity.
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u našim šumama, u zemlji i biološke raznolikosti.
03:43
The forth pressure is surprise,
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Četvrti pritisak je iznenađenje,
03:45
the notion and the evidence
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ideja i dokaz
03:47
that we need to abandon our old paradigm,
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da moramo napustiti naše stare modele
03:49
that ecosystems behave linearly, predictably,
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u kojima se ekosistemi ponašaju linearno, predvidivo,
03:52
controllably in our -- so to say -- linear systems,
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kontrolisano u našim -- da tako kažemo -- linearnim sistemima
03:55
and that in fact, surprise is universal,
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i da je zapravo, iznenađenje univerzalno,
03:57
as systems tip over very rapidly, abruptly
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kako se sistemi menjaju vrlo ubrzano, iznenadno
03:59
and often irreversibly.
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i često puta nepovratno.
04:01
This, dear friends, poses a human pressure on the planet
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Ovo, dragi prijatelji, predstavlja pritisak čoveka na planetu
04:04
of momentous scale.
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u značajnom obimu.
04:07
We may, in fact, have entered a new geological era --
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Možda smo, zapravo, ušli u novo geološko razdoblje
04:10
the Anthropocene,
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Antropocen,
04:12
where humans are the predominant driver of change
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gde su ljudi pretežni nosioci promena
04:14
at a planetary level.
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na nivou planete.
04:16
Now, as a scientist,
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Pitam se kao naučnik,
04:18
what's the evidence for this?
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koji je dokaz za to?
04:20
Well, the evidence is,
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Pa, dokaz je,
04:22
unfortunately, ample.
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na žalost, rasprostranjen.
04:24
It's not only carbon dioxide
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To nije samo ugljen dioksid
04:26
that has this hockey stick pattern of accelerated change.
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čija ubrzana promena ima oblik hokejaškog štapa.
04:29
You can take virtually any parameter
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Zapravo možete uzeti bilo koji pokazatelj
04:31
that matters for human well-being --
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važan za dobro čoveka --
04:33
nitrous oxide, methane,
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azot-oksid, metan,
04:35
deforestation, overfishing
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krčenje šuma, povećani izlov ribe
04:37
land degredation, loss of species --
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degradacija tla, nestanak vrsta --
04:40
they all show the same pattern
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svi oni pokazuju isti šablon
04:42
over the past 200 years.
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u poslednjih 200 godina.
04:45
Simultaneously, they branch off in the mid-50s,
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Istovremeno, račvaju se sredinom 50-ih godina,
04:48
10 years after the Second World War,
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10 godina posle Drugog svetskog rata,
04:51
showing very clearly that the great acceleration of the human enterprise
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jasno pokazujući da je značajno ubrzanje ljudskih inicijativa
04:54
starts in the mid-50s.
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započelo sredinom 50-ih.
04:56
You see, for the first time, an imprint on the global level.
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Vidite, po prvi put, otisak na globalnom nivou.
04:59
And I can tell you,
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I mogu vam reći,
05:01
you enter the disciplinary research in each of these,
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ako ulazite u disciplinarno istraživanje svakog od ovih,
05:03
you find something remarkably important,
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naći ćete nešto vrlo važno;
05:06
the conclusion that we may have come to the point
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zaključak da smo možda došli do tačke
05:09
where we have to bend the curves,
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gde moramo saviti krivu,
05:11
that we may have entered the most challenging and exciting decade
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da smo možda ušli u najizazovniju i najuzbudljiviju deceniju
05:14
in the history humanity on the planet,
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u istoriji čovečanstva na planeti,
05:17
the decade when we have to bend the curves.
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deceniju gde moramo u stvari saviti krive.
05:20
Now, as if this was not enough --
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Ako ovo nije dovoljno --
05:22
to just bend the curves and understanding the accelerated pressure on the planet --
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da prosto savijemo krive i razumemo ubrzani pritisak na planetu --
05:25
we also have to recognize the fact
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takođe trebamo prepoznati činjenicu
05:27
that systems do have multiple stable states,
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da sistemi imaju višestruka stabilna stanja,
05:30
separated by thresholds -- illustrated here by this ball and cup diagram,
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razdvojena pragovima -- ilustracija lopte i dijagrama u obliku kupe
05:33
where the depth of the cup is the resilience of the system.
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gde je dubina kupe otpornost sistema.
05:36
Now, the system may gradually --
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Sistem može postepeno --
05:39
under pressure of climate change,
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pod pritiskom klimatskih promena,
05:41
erosion, biodiversity loss --
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erozije, gubitka biološke raznolikosti
05:43
lose the depth of the cup, the resilience,
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gubiti dubinu kupe, otpornost,
05:45
but appear to be healthy
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ali izgledati da je zdrav
05:47
and appear to suddenly, under a threshold,
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i da se iznenada, ispod praga,
05:49
be tipping over. Upff.
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menja. Uh.
05:51
Sorry. Changing state
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Oprostite. Menjajući stanje
05:54
and literally ending up
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i doslovno završavajući
05:56
in an undesired situation,
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u neželjenoj situaciji,
06:00
where new biophysical logic takes over,
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gde nova logika biofizike, nove vrste
06:03
new species take over, and the system gets locked.
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preuzimaju stvar, a sistem ostaje zaključan.
06:05
Do we have evidence of this? Yes, coral reef systems.
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Imamo li dokaz za to? Da, sistemi koralnih grebena.
06:09
Biodiverse, low-nutrient, hard coral systems
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Biološki raznovrsni, nisko-hranljivi, tvrdi koralni sistemi
06:12
under multiple pressures of overfishing,
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pod višestrukim pritiscima izlovljavanja ribe,
06:15
unsustainable tourism, climate change.
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neodrživog turizma, klimatske promene.
06:17
A trigger and the system tips over,
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Jedan okidač i sistem se preokreće,
06:19
loses its resilience,
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gubeći svoju otpornost,
06:21
soft corals take over,
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meki korali preuzimaju teritoriju,
06:23
and we get undesired systems
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tada dobijamo neželjene sisteme
06:25
that cannot support economic and social development.
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koji ne mogu podržati ekonomski i društveni razvoj.
06:27
The Arctic -- a beautiful system --
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Arktik -- prelep sistem --
06:29
a regulating biome at the planetary level,
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regulišući biom na nivou planete,
06:31
taking the knock after knock on climate change,
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dobijajući udarac za udarcem pri klimatskoj promeni,
06:34
appearing to be in a good state.
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čini se da je u doborm stanju.
06:36
No scientist could predict that in 2007,
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Ni jedan naučnik nije mogao predvideti šta će 2007.
06:38
suddenly, what could be crossing a threshold.
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iznenada, možda preći prag.
06:41
The system suddenly, very surprisingly, loses 30 to 40 percent
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Sistem, odjednom, iznenada gubi 30 do 40 procenata
06:43
of its summer ice cover.
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letnjeg ledenog pokrivača.
06:45
And the drama is, of course, that
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Drama je, naravno, u tome kada
06:47
when the system does this, the logic may change.
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se ovo dogodi, logika može biti promenjena.
06:49
It may get locked in an undesired state,
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Sistem može biti zaključan u neželjenom stanju
06:51
because it changes color, absorbs more energy,
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jer menja boju, absorbuje više energije,
06:53
and the system may get stuck.
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i tako može zaglaviti.
06:55
In my mind, the largest red flag warning for humanity
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Što se mene tiče, najveće upozorenje za čovečanstvo
06:58
that we are in a precarious situation.
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je da smo u neizvesnoj situaciji.
07:01
As a sideline, you know that the only red flag that popped up here
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Kao sporedna stvar, znate da jedino upozorenje koje se ovde pojavljuje
07:04
was a submarine from an unnamed country
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jeste podmornica iz neimenovane države
07:06
that planted a red flag at the bottom of the Arctic
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koja je postavila crvenu zastavu na dnu Arktika
07:09
to be able to control the oil resources.
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da bi mogla da kontroliše naftne resurse.
07:12
Now, if we have evidence, which we now have,
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Ukoliko imamo dokaz, koji sada imamo,
07:15
that wetlands, forests,
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da se močvare, šume,
07:17
[unclear] monsoon system, the rainforests,
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monsuni, kišne šume,
07:19
behave in this nonlinear way.
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ponašaju na nelinearan način.
07:21
30 or so scientists around the world
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Oko 30 naučnika širom sveta se
07:23
gathered and asked a question for the first time,
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okupilo i upitalo po prvi put,
07:25
"Do we have to put the planet into the the pot?"
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"Da li moramo da stavimo planetu u lonac?"
07:27
So we have to ask ourselves:
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Tada se moramo zapitati:
07:29
are we threatening this extraordinarily stable Holocene state?
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da li pretimo ovom retkom stanju stabilnosti Holocena?
07:33
Are we in fact putting ourselves in a situation
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Da li se u stvari stavljamo u situaciju
07:35
where we're coming too close
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gde vrlo brzo dolazimo
07:37
to thresholds that could lead
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do praga koji može voditi
07:39
to deleterious and very undesired,
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štetnoj i neželjenoj,
07:41
if now catastrophic, change
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sada već katastralnoj promeni
07:43
for human development?
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zarad ljudskog razvoja?
07:45
You know, you don't want to stand there.
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Znate, ne biste želeli da se nađete na ovom mestu.
07:47
In fact, you're not even allowed to stand
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Zapravo, nije vam čak ni dozvoljeno da se nađete
07:49
where this gentleman is standing,
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na mestu gde stoji ovaj gospodin,
07:51
at the foaming, slippery waters at the threshold.
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na penušavom, klizavom vodopadu, na ivici.
07:54
In fact, there's a fence
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U stvari, postoji ograda
07:56
quite upstream of this threshold,
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prilično udaljena od ove ivice,
07:58
beyond which you are in a danger zone.
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iza koje se nalazite u zoni opasnosti.
08:00
And this is the new paradigm,
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Tako da je ovo novi model
08:02
which we gathered two, three years back,
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koji smo prikupili dve, tri godine unazad
08:04
recognizing that our old paradigm
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prepoznajući da naš stari model
08:06
of just analyzing and pushing and predicting
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samo analiziranja, predviđanja
08:08
parameters into the future,
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i gurnanja parametara u budućnost,
08:10
aiming at minimalizing environmental impacts, is of the past.
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ciljajući na minimiziranje uticaja na okruženje -- je deo prošlosti.
08:13
Now we to ask ourselves:
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Sada se zapitajmo:
08:15
which are the large environmental processes
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koji su to veliki procesi prirodne sredine
08:17
that we have to be stewards of
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kojima moramo biti sluge
08:19
to keep ourselves safe in the Holocene?
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kako bismo ostali bezbedni u Holocenu?
08:21
And could we even,
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I možemo li uopšte,
08:23
thanks to major advancements in Earth systems science,
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zahvaljujući velikim unapređenjima nauke o Zemljinim sistemima,
08:25
identify the thresholds,
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identifikovati pragove,
08:27
the points where we may expect nonlinear change?
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tačke u kojima možemo očekivati nelinearne promene?
08:30
And could we even define
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I možemo li uopšte definisati
08:32
a planetary boundary, a fence,
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planetarne granice, ogradu,
08:35
within which we then have a safe operating space for humanity?
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u okviru koje imamo siguran prostor za funkcionisanje čovečanstva?
08:38
This work, which was published in "Nature,"
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Ovaj rad, objavljen u žurnalu "Priroda",
08:40
late 2009,
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krajem 2009. godine,
08:42
after a number of years of analysis,
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posle brojnih godina analiza,
08:44
led to the final proposition
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doveo je do finalnog predloga
08:47
that we can only find
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da jedino možemo naći
08:49
nine planetary boundaries
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devet planetarnih veza
08:51
with which, under active stewardship,
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sa kojima bi, aktivno im služeći,
08:54
would allow ourselves to have a safe operating space.
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dopustili sebi da imamo siguran prostor za funkcionisanje.
08:57
These include, of course, climate.
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Ove veze podrazumevaju, naravno, klimu.
08:59
It may surprise you that it's not only climate.
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Može vas iznenaditi da to nije samo klima.
09:01
But it shows that we are interconnected, among many systems on the planet,
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Već da smo u međusobno povezani, sa mnogim sistemima na planeti,
09:04
with the three big systems, climate change,
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zajedno sa tri velika sistema, sa klimatskom promenom,
09:06
stratospheric ozone depletion and ocean acidification
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trošenjem ozona u stratosferi i ukiseljavanjem okeana,
09:09
being the three big systems,
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kao tri sistema,
09:11
where the scientific evidence of large-scale thresholds
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gde nauka svedoči o granicama velikih razmera
09:14
in the paleo-record of the history of the planet.
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u paleo-zapisu istorije planete.
09:17
But we also include, what we call, the slow variables,
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Ali takođe podrazumevamo, ono što zovemo spore promenljive,
09:20
the systems that, under the hood,
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sistemi koji, prikriveno,
09:22
regulate and buffer the capacity of the resilience of the planet --
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regulišu i amortizuju kapacitet otpornosti planete --
09:25
the interference of the big nitrogen and phosphorus cycles on the planet,
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umešanost azotnih i fosfornih ciklusa na planeti,
09:28
land use change, rate of biodiversity loss,
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upotrebu zemljišta, gubitak biološke raznovrsnosti,
09:30
freshwater use,
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upotrebu sveže vode,
09:32
functions which regulate
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funkcije koje regulišu
09:35
biomass on the planet, carbon sequestration, diversity.
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biomasu na planeti, odvajanje ugljenika, raznolikost.
09:38
And then we have two parameters which we were not able to quantify --
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Tada imamo dva pokazatelja koje nismo u stanju da kvantifikujemo --
09:41
air pollution,
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zagađenje vazduha,
09:43
including warming gases and air-polluting sulfates and nitrates,
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uključujući vrele gasove i zagađenje sulfatima i nitratima,
09:46
but also chemical pollution.
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kao i hemijsko zagađenje.
09:49
Together, these form an integrated whole
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Zajedno, ovi pokazatelji čine integrisanu celinu
09:52
for guiding human development in the Anthropocene,
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za vođenje ljudskog razvoja u Antropocenu,
09:54
understanding that the planet
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shvatajući da je planeta
09:56
is a complex self-regulating system.
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kompleksan sistem sa povratnom spregom.
09:59
In fact, most evidence indicates
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Zapravo, većina dokaza ukazuje na to
10:01
that these nine may behave as three Musketeers,
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da se ovih devet veza mogu ponašati kao tri Musketara,
10:04
"One for all. All for one."
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"Svi za jednog. Jedan za sve".
10:06
You degrade forests, you go beyond the boundary on land,
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Degradirate šume, idete iza granica zemlje,
10:09
you undermine the ability of the climate system
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potkopavate sposobnost klimatskog sistema
10:11
to stay stable.
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da ostane stabilan.
10:13
The drama here is, in fact, that
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Nevolja je u tome, zapravo, što
10:15
it may show that the climate challenge
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to može pokazati da su klimatski izazovi
10:17
is the easy one,
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onaj lagani deo,
10:19
if you consider the whole challenge
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ako se uzme u obzir celokupni izazov
10:21
of sustainable development.
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održivog razvoja.
10:24
Now this is the Big Bang equivalent then of human development
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Ovo je Veliki prasak jednak ljudskom razvoju
10:27
within the safe operating space of the planetary boundaries.
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unutar bezbednog prostora planetarnih granica.
10:29
What you see here in black line is the safe operating space,
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Ono što vidite unutar crne linije je bezbedan prostor funkcionisanja,
10:32
the quantified boundaries,
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kvantifikovane granice,
10:34
as suggested by this analysis.
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kao što preporučuju analize.
10:36
The yellow dot in the middle here is our starting point,
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Žuta tačka u sredini je naša početna tačka,
10:38
the pre-industrial point,
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pre-industrijska tačka,
10:40
where we're very safely in the safe operating space.
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gde smo veoma bezbedni u prostoru funkcionisanja.
10:42
In the '50s, we start branching out.
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U 50-im smo počeli da se granamo.
10:45
In the '60s already, through the green revolution
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Već u 60-im, kroz zelenu revoluciju
10:47
and the Haber-Bosch process
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i Haber-Bošov postupak
10:49
of fixing nitrogen from the atmosphere --
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za dobijanje azota iz atmosfere --
10:51
you know, human's today take out more nitrogen from the atmosphere
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znate, ljudi danas uzimaju više azota iz atmosfere
10:54
than the whole biosphere does naturally as a whole.
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nego što čitava biosfera to radi prirodnim putem.
10:58
We don't transgress the climate boundary until the early '90s,
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Nismo prekoračili granice klime sve do ranih 90-ih,
11:01
actually, right after Rio.
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zapravo, odmah posle Rija.
11:03
And today, we are in a situation where we estimate
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Danas se nalazimo u situaciji gde procenjujemo
11:05
that we've transgressed three boundaries,
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da smo prekoračili tri granice,
11:07
the rate of biodiversity loss,
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stopu gubitka biološke raznovrsnosti,
11:09
which is the sixth extinction period in the history of humanity --
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koja je period šestog iskorenjivanja u istoriji čovečanstva --
11:12
one of them being the extinctions of the dinosaurs --
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jedan njih je iskorenjivanje dinosaurusa --
11:15
nitrogen and climate change.
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azot i klimatske promene.
11:17
But we still have some degrees of freedom on the others,
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I dalje imamo neke stepene slobode u odnosu na druge,
11:19
but we are approaching fast
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ali se isto tako brzo približavamo
11:21
on land, water, phosphorus and oceans.
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zemlji, vodi, fosforu i okeanima.
11:23
But this gives a new paradigm
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Ovo nam daje novi primer
11:25
to guide humanity,
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za vođenje čovečanstva,
11:27
to put the light on our, so far
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u osvetljavanju našeg, do sad
11:30
overpowered industrial vehicle,
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potisnutog, industrijskog vozila,
11:32
which operates as if
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koje funkcioniše kao da smo
11:34
we're only on a dark, straight highway.
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sami na mračnom, ravnom autoputu.
11:37
Now the question then is:
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Pitanje je:
11:39
how gloomy is this?
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koliko je ovo sumorno?
11:41
Is then sustainable development utopia?
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Da li postoji utopija održivog razvoja?
11:43
Well, there's no science to suggest.
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Pa, nema nauke da to predloži.
11:45
In fact, there is ample science
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Zapravo, postoji opširna nauka
11:47
to indicate that we can do this transformative change,
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koja ukazuje da možemo napraviti ove promene,
11:50
that we have the ability
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da imamo sposobnosti
11:52
to now move into a new innovative,
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da se sada pokrenemo ka novoj,
11:55
a transformative gear,
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inovativnoj transformaciji,
11:57
across scales.
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preko različitih nivoa.
11:59
The drama is, of course,
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Problem je, naravno, u tome
12:01
is that 200 countries on this planet
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što 200 zemalja na ovoj planeti
12:03
have to simultaneously start moving
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treba istovremeno da se pokrene
12:05
in the same direction.
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u istom smeru.
12:07
But it changes fundamentally our governance and management paradigm,
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Ali to fundamentalno menja našu direkciju i upravljanje modelom,
12:10
from the current linear,
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od sadašnje, linearne,
12:12
command and control thinking,
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dominacije i kontrole mišljenja,
12:14
looking at efficiencies and optimization
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tragajući za efikasnošću i optimizacijom
12:16
towards a much more flexible,
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ka fleksibilnijem
12:19
a much more adaptive approach,
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i prilagodljivijem pristupu,
12:21
where we recognize that redundancy,
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gde prepoznajemo da je višak
12:23
both in social and environmental systems,
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u socijalnim i ambijentalnim sistemima,
12:25
is key to be able to deal
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ključ da se izborimo
12:27
with a turbulent era of global change.
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sa turbulentnim razdobljem globalne promene.
12:30
We have to invest in persistence,
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Moramo da uložimo u doslednost,
12:32
in the ability of social systems and ecological systems
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u sposobnost socijalnih i ekoloških sistema
12:35
to withstand shocks and still remain in that desired cup.
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da bismo izdržali napade i ostali u toj željenoj kupi.
12:38
We have to invest in transformations capability,
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Moramo da investiramo u sposobnost transformacije,
12:41
moving from crisis into innovation
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pomerajući se od krize ka inovaciji
12:44
and the ability to rise after a crisis,
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i sposobnosti za oporavljanje posle krize,
12:47
and of course to adapt to unavoidable change.
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i naravno da se prilagodimo neizbežnim promenama.
12:49
This is a new paradigm.
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Ovo je novi model.
12:51
We're not doing that at any scale on governance.
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Ne radimo ovo na bilo kojem nivou uprave.
12:54
But is it happening anywhere?
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Ali, da li je situacija svuda ista?
12:56
Do we have any examples of success
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Da li imamo bilo kakve primere uspeha
12:58
on this mind shift being applied at the local level?
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u promeni razmišljanja koji su primenjeni na lokalnom nivou?
13:01
Well, yes, in fact we do
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Pa, da, zapravo imamo,
13:04
and the list can start becoming longer and longer.
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a lista može početi da biva sve duža i duža.
13:06
There's good news here,
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Postoje dobre vesti,
13:08
for example, from Latin America,
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na primer, iz Latinske Amerike,
13:10
where plow-based farming systems
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gde su farme, obrađivane plugom,
13:13
of the '50s and '60s
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iz 50-ih i 60-ih,
13:15
led farming basically to a dead-end,
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vodile poljoprivredu u ćorsokak,
13:17
with lower and lower yields, degrading the organic matter
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sa sve manjom dobiti, degradirajući organsku materiju
13:20
and fundamental problems at the livelihood levels
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i osnovne probleme izdržavanja
13:23
in Paraguay, Uruguay and a number of countries, Brazil,
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u Paragvaju, Urugvaju i brojnim zemljama, Brazilu,
13:26
leading to innovation and entrepreneurship
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vodeći ka inovaciji i preduzetništvu
13:28
among farmers in partnership with scientists
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između farmera u partnerstvu sa naučnicima,
13:30
into an agricultural revolution of zero tillage systems
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do poljoprivredne revolucije sistema bez oranja
13:33
combined with mulch farming
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koja kombinovanog sa zagrtanjem biljaka
13:35
with locally adapted technologies,
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i sa lokalno prilagođenim tehnologijama
13:37
which today, for example, in some countries,
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koje su danas na primer, u nekim zemljama,
13:40
have led to a tremendous increase
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dovele do golemog povećanja;
13:42
in area under mulch, zero till farming
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sve to u oblasti zagrtanja biljaka i bez oranja
13:45
which, not only produces more food,
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što, ne samo da proizvodi više hrane,
13:47
but also sequesters carbon.
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nego i izdvaja ugljenik.
13:49
The Australian Great Barrier Reef is another success story.
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Australijski Veliki koralni greben predstavlja još jednu uspešnu priču.
13:52
Under the realization from tourist operators,
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U okviru realizacije od strane turističkih operatera,
13:54
fishermen,
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ribolovaca,
13:56
the Australian Great Barrier Reef Authority and scientists
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vlasti Velikog koralnog grebena i naučnika,
13:59
that the Great Barrier Reef is doomed
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Veliki koralni greben je osuđen na propast
14:01
under the current governance regime.
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pod trenutnim režimom upravljanja.
14:04
Global change, beautification rack culture,
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Globalne promene, kultura iscrpljujućeg ulepšavanja,
14:06
overfishing and unsustainable tourism,
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prekomerni ribolov i neodrživi turizam,
14:08
all together placing this system
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svi zajedno stavljaju ovaj sistem
14:10
in the realization of crisis.
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u položaj realizacije krize.
14:12
But the window of opportunity was innovation and new mindset,
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Ali prostor za mogućnosti su inovacije i nov način razmišljanja,
14:14
which today has led to a completely new governance strategy
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koji je danas doveo do potpuno nove strategije upravljanja
14:17
to build resilience,
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radi izgradnje otpornsti,
14:19
acknowledge redundancy
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viška znanja
14:21
and invest in the whole system as an integrated whole,
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i ulaganja u ceo sistem kao u integrisanu celinu
14:24
and then allow for much more redundancy in the system.
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i omogućavanja mnogo više viška u sistemu.
14:27
Sweden, the country I come from, has other examples,
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Švedska, zemlja iz koje dolazim, ima druge primere,
14:30
where wetlands in southern Sweden were seen as --
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gde su močvare na jugu Švedske prepoznate --
14:33
as in many countries -- as flood-prone polluted nuisance
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kao i u mnogim državama -- kao poplavljena, zagađena neprijatnost
14:36
in the peri-urban regions.
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u prigradskim oblastima.
14:38
But again, a crisis, new partnerships,
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Ali opet, krize, nova partnerstva,
14:41
actors locally, transforming these
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lokalni akteri, pretvaraju to
14:43
into a key component
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u ključnu komponentu
14:45
of sustainable urban planning.
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održivog, urbanog planiranja.
14:47
So crisis leading into opportunities.
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Tako da kriza vodi u nove mogućnosti.
14:51
Now, what about the future?
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A šta sa budućnošću?
14:53
Well, the future, of course, has one massive challenge,
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Pa, budućnost, naravno, ima jedan ogroman izazov,
14:56
which is feeding a world of nine billion people.
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koji snabdeva svet od devet milijardi ljudi.
14:58
We need nothing less than a new green revolution,
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Ne treba nam ništa manje od nove zelene revolucije,
15:00
and the planet boundaries shows
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a granice planete pokazuju da poljoprivreda
15:02
that agriculture has to go from a source of greenhouse gases to a sink.
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mora da se promeni od izvora do slivnika štetnih gasova.
15:05
It has to basically do this on current land.
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To mora da se desi na postojećoj zemlji.
15:08
We cannot expand anymore,
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Ne možemo se više širiti,
15:10
because it erodes the planetary boundaries.
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jer to uništava planetarne granice.
15:12
We cannot continue consuming water as we do today,
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Ne možemo nastaviti da konzumiramo vodu kao što to činimo danas,
15:15
with 25 percent of world rivers not even reaching the ocean.
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sa 25 procenata svetskih reka koje čak ni ne stignu do okeana.
15:18
And we need a transformation.
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Potrebna nam je transformacija.
15:20
Well, interestingly, and based on my work
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Zanimljivo, i zasnovano na mom radu
15:22
and others in Africa, for example,
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i ostalima u Africi, na primer, pokazali smo da
15:24
we've shown that even the most vulnerable small-scale rainfall farming systems,
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čak i sa malim sistemima poljoprivrednog uzgoja, ugroženih sušom,
15:27
with innovations and supplementary irrigation
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sa inovacijama i dodatnim navodnjavanjem
15:29
to bridge dry spells and droughts,
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radi premošćavanja sušnog perioda,
15:31
sustainable sanitation systems to close the loop on nutrients
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kao i održivim sanitarijama za ponovno vraćanje hranljivih materija
15:34
from toilets back to farmers' fields,
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iz klozetskih šolja nazad na polja farmera
15:37
and innovations in tillage systems,
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i inovacijama u sistemima obrade zemlje,
15:39
we can triple, quadruple, yield levels
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možemo utrostručiti, učetvorostručiti prinose
15:41
on current land.
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na nivou sadašnjeg zemljišta.
15:43
Elinor Ostrom,
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Elinor Ostrom,
15:45
the latest Nobel laureate of economics,
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najnoviji dobitnik Nobelove nagrade za ekonomiju,
15:47
clearly shows empirically across the world
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jasno pokazuje, empirijski, širom sveta,
15:49
that we can govern the commons
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da možemo rukovoditi društvenim dobrom
15:51
if we invest in trust,
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ukoliko investiramo u poverenje,
15:54
local, action-based partnerships
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lokalna partnerstva zasnovana na aktivnostima
15:57
and cross-scale institutional innovations,
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i institucionalne inovacije,
16:01
where local actors,
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gde se lokalni akteri, zajedno,
16:04
together, can deal with the global commons
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mogu izboriti sa globalnim društvenim dobrima
16:06
at a large scale.
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u velikoj razmeri.
16:08
But even on the hard policy area we have innovations.
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Ali čak i u oblasti teške politike mi imamo inovacije.
16:11
We know that we have to move from our fossil dependence
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Znamo da se moramo odmaći od zavisnosti od fosilnih goriva
16:13
very quickly into a low-carbon economy in record time.
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vrlo brzo ka ekonomiji niske emisije i to u rekordnom vremenu.
16:16
And what shall we do?
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I šta ćemo da radimo?
16:18
Everybody talks about carbon taxes -- it won't work -- emission schemes,
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Svi govore o porezu na ugljenik -- to neće funkcionisati -- planovi emisije,
16:21
but for example, one policy measure,
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ali na primer, jedna politička mera,
16:23
feed-in tariffs on the energy system,
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tarifa o energetskom sistemu,
16:25
which is already applied,
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koja je već primenjena,
16:27
from China doing it on offshore wind systems,
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u Kini to rade pomoću vetrenjača postavljenih u moru,
16:29
all the way to the U.S.
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sve do SAD-a gde dobijate
16:31
where you give the guaranteed price for investment in renewable energy,
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garantovanu cenu za investiranje u obnovljive izvore energije,
16:33
but you can subsidize electricity to poor people.
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ali možete subvencionisati struju siromašnima.
16:36
You get people out of poverty.
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Vi vadite ljude iz siromaštva.
16:38
You solve the climate issue with regards to the energy sector,
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Rešavate klimatske probleme sa osvrtom na energestski sektor,
16:40
while at the same time, stimulating innovation --
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dok istovremeno, stimulišete inovaciju --
16:43
examples of things that can be out scaled quickly
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primeri stvari koje se brzo mogu prilagoditi
16:45
at the planetary level.
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planetarnom nivou.
16:47
So there is -- no doubt -- opportunity here,
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Tako da ovde -- nema sumnje -- postoji prilika,
16:49
and we can list many, many examples
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i možemo navesti mnogo, mnogo primera
16:52
of transformative opportunities around the planet.
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transformativnih prilika širom planete.
16:55
The key though in all of these,
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Ključ u svemu ovome,
16:57
the red thread,
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crvena nit,
16:59
is the shift in mindset,
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je pomak u načinu razmišljanja,
17:01
moving away from a situation where we simply are pushing ourselves
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udaljavanje od situacije gde prosto guramo sebe
17:04
into a dark future,
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u mračnu budućnost,
17:06
where we instead backcast our future,
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gde umesto da obrnemo našu budućnost,
17:08
and we say, "What is the playing field on the planet?
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mi kažemo, "Šta je teren na planeti?
17:11
What are the planetary boundaries
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Koje su planetarne granice
17:13
within which we can safely operate?"
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u okviru kojih funkcionišemo bezbedno?"
17:15
and then backtrack innovations within that.
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Te se onda vratimo na inovacije u okviru toga.
17:17
But of course, the drama is, it clearly shows
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Ali naravno, nevolja je, što se jasno pokazuje
17:19
that incremental change is not an option.
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da inkrementalna promena nije opcija.
17:22
So, there is scientific evidence.
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Postoji naučni dokaz.
17:24
They sort of say the harsh news,
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Oni kažu da je neka vrsta surove vesti,
17:26
that we are facing the largest
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da se suočavamo sa najvećim
17:28
transformative development
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transformativnim razvojem
17:30
since the industrialization.
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još od industrijalizacije.
17:32
In fact, what we have to do over the next 40 years
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Zapravo, ono što treba da radimo sledećih 40 godina
17:34
is much more dramatic and more exciting
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je mnogo dramatičnije i uzbudljivije
17:37
than what we did when we moved into
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od onoga što smo radili kad smo se našli
17:40
the situation we're in today.
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u situaciji u kojoj smo danas.
17:42
Now, science indicates that,
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Nauka nagoveštava da
17:44
yes, we can achieve a prosperous future
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možemo postići naprednu budućnost
17:46
within the safe operating space,
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u okviru bezbednog prostora za funkconisanje,
17:48
if we move simultaneously,
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ako krenemo istvoremeno,
17:50
collaborating on a global level, from local to global scale,
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sarađujući na globalnom nivou, od lokalnih do globalnih razmera,
17:53
in transformative options, which build resilience on a finite planet.
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u promenljivim opcijama, koje grade otpornost na konačnoj planeti.
17:56
Thank you.
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Hvala vam.
17:58
(Applause)
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Aplauz
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