Let the environment guide our development | Johan Rockstrom

425,376 views ・ 2010-08-31

TED


请双击下面的英文字幕来播放视频。

翻译人员: Xu Jiang 校对人员: Angelia King
00:15
We live on a human-dominated planet,
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我们生活在一个由人类支配的星球上,
00:18
putting unprecedented pressure
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我们将前所未有的压力
00:20
on the systems on Earth.
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压在地球的整个系统上。
00:22
This is bad news, but perhaps surprising to you,
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这有一个坏消息,但也许会让你吃惊,
00:24
it's also part of the good news.
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这也算是一个好消息。
00:26
We're the first generation -- thanks to science --
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感谢科技进步,我们是第一代
00:29
to be informed that we may be
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知晓我们可能
00:31
undermining the stability and the ability
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正在侵蚀着地球的
00:33
of planet Earth
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稳定性和功能性
00:35
to support human development as we know it.
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来维系人类自身发展。
00:37
It's also good news, because the planetary risks we're facing
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还有一个好消息,因为我们面临的风险
00:40
are so large,
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如此之大,
00:42
that business as usual is not an option.
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以前的办法已经没有用了。
00:44
In fact, we're in a phase
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实际上,我们处在新的阶段
00:46
where transformative change is necessary,
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必须采取变革的阶段,
00:49
which opens the window for innovation,
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为创新得打开一扇窗,
00:51
for new ideas and new paradigms.
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迎接新想法和新模式。
00:54
This is a scientific journey on the challenges facing humanity
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这是一次人类
00:57
in the global phase of sustainability.
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关于全球可持续发展面临挑战的科学之旅。
00:59
On this journey, I'd like to bring, apart from yourselves,
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在这趟旅途中,除了你们,我希望带上
01:02
a good friend,
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一个好朋友,
01:04
a stakeholder, who's always absent
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一位利益相关者但常常被忽视,
01:06
when we deal with the negotiations on environmental issues,
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当我们处理沟通环境问题时,
01:08
a stakeholder who refuses to compromise --
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一个拒绝妥协的利益相关者
01:11
planet Earth.
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它就是一颗叫做地球的星球。
01:13
So I thought I'd bring her with me today on stage,
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我原本想把她带上舞台,
01:16
to have her as a witness
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让她亲眼目睹
01:18
of a remarkable journey,
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这非凡的旅途,
01:21
which humbly reminds us
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同时谨提醒我们
01:23
of the period of grace we've had
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在过去1万年我们所经历过的恩泽
01:25
over the past 10,000 years.
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时代。
01:27
This is the living conditions on the planet over the last 100,000 years.
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这是一个持续了十万年的生机勃勃的星球。
01:30
It's a very important period --
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这是一个非常重要的时期。
01:32
it's roughly half the period when we've been fully modern humans on the planet.
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这几乎持续了我们进化成为现代人类一半的时间。
01:35
We've had the same, roughly, abilities
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我们也大致拥有同样能力来创造
01:37
that developed civilizations as we know it.
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如大家所知发展了文明。
01:39
This is the environmental conditions on the planet.
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这是目前星球的状况。
01:41
Here, used as a proxy, temperature variability.
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在这我们用温度变化作为一个参考物。
01:44
It was a jumpy ride. 80,000 years back in a crisis,
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上下波动很大。这是八万年前的危机,
01:47
we leave Africa, we colonize Australia
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我们离开非洲,我们殖民澳洲是
01:49
in another crisis, 60,000 years back,
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在六万年后的另一次危机中,
01:51
we leave Asia for Europe
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我们从亚洲来到欧洲是
01:53
in another crisis, 40,000 years back,
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在四万年前的危机中,
01:55
and then we enter
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我们在那时进入了
01:57
the remarkably stable Holocene phase,
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相当稳定的全新时代,
02:00
the only period in the whole history of the planet,
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也是地球史上前所未有的时代,
02:03
that we know of, that can support human development.
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我们知道,可以维系人类发展的时代。
02:05
A thousand years into this period,
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在这1千年发展中,
02:07
we abandon our hunting and gathering patterns.
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我们放弃了狩猎采集的模式。
02:10
We go from a couple of million people
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我们从几千万人口
02:12
to the seven billion people we are today.
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发展到如今的70亿人口,
02:14
The Mesopotamian culture: we invent agriculture,
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美索不达米亚文化:那时我们发明了农业,
02:16
we domesticate animals and plants.
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我们驯化动物和植物。
02:18
You have the Roman, the Greek and the story as you know it.
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然后是罗马文明,希腊文明等等众所周知的文明。
02:21
The only phase, as we know it
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我们目前知道地球是唯一
02:23
that can support humanity.
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适合人类生存发展文明的地方。
02:25
The trouble is we're putting a quadruple sqeeze
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麻烦的是在这个可怜的星球,
02:27
on this poor planet,
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我们四面楚歌,
02:29
a quadruple sqeeze, which, as its first squeeze,
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这第一面,
02:32
has population growth of course.
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当然是人口增长。
02:35
Now, this is not only about numbers;
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现在不仅是数字上的增长。
02:37
this is not only about the fact that we're seven billion people
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不只是70亿到90亿人口这个事实,
02:39
committed to nine billion people, it's an equity issue as well.
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还涉及到一个公平性的问题。
02:42
The majority of the environmental impacts on the planet
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对地球环境产生很大影响的
02:44
have been caused by the rich minority,
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往往是富裕的少数人,
02:46
the 20 percent that jumped onto the industrial bandwagon
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在18世纪的中期,
02:48
in the mid-18th century.
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百分之二十的人投身于工业革命中。
02:50
The majority of the planet,
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这星球的大多数国家
02:52
aspiring for development, having the right for development,
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渴望发展,有权发展,
02:54
are in large aspiring for an unsustainable lifestyle,
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但这些国家大多在追求一种地球无法承受的生活方式,
02:57
a momentous pressure.
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这是一种巨大的压力。
02:59
The second pressure on the planet is, of course the climate agenda --
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给地球的第二个压力,当然是气候议程,
03:01
the big issue -- where the policy interpretation of science
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一个大议题,往往科学影响着政策
03:03
is that it would be enough
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有观点认为
03:05
to stabilize greenhouse gases at 450 ppm
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将温室气体含量稳定在450ppm
03:08
to avoid average temperatures
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从而避免温度
03:10
exceeding two degrees,
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升高超过2度,
03:12
to avoid the risk that we may be destabilizing
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避免我们失去
03:14
the West Antarctic Ice Sheet,
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南极西部的冰盖层融化,
03:16
holding six meters -- level rising,
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水平面将升高6米的风险,
03:18
the risk of destabilizing the Greenland Ice Sheet,
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避免格陵兰冰盖融化的风险,
03:20
holding another seven meters -- sea level rising.
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这会造成海平面再上升7米。
03:22
Now, you would have wished the climate pressure
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现在,你们会指望
03:24
to hit a strong planet, a resilient planet,
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这个强大的,能承受强压力的星球来抵御气候压力,
03:26
but unfortunately, the third pressure
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但是,不幸的是,还有第三种压力
03:28
is the ecosystem decline.
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是生态系统的衰落。
03:30
Never have we seen, in the past 50 years,
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在过去50年中,我们从没有见过
03:32
such a sharp decline
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生态系统在这颗星球上的作用和影响
03:34
of ecosystem functions and services on the planet,
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如此急剧的衰落,
03:37
one of them being the ability to regulate climate on the long term,
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他们当中有种能力是长期调整
03:40
in our forests, land and biodiversity.
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影响森林,土地和生物多样性的气候。
03:43
The forth pressure is surprise,
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第四种压力是不同性,
03:45
the notion and the evidence
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概念和证据
03:47
that we need to abandon our old paradigm,
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那就是我们必须放弃我们老套的模式,
03:49
that ecosystems behave linearly, predictably,
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那就是可以这么说,在我们线性系统旧模式中,生态系统表现是线性的,是可以预见的,
03:52
controllably in our -- so to say -- linear systems,
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是可控制的,
03:55
and that in fact, surprise is universal,
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那就是,实际上,不同性就是共同性,
03:57
as systems tip over very rapidly, abruptly
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随着系统迅速地,突然地
03:59
and often irreversibly.
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往往也是不可逆转的破坏。
04:01
This, dear friends, poses a human pressure on the planet
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亲爱的朋友们,这是对地球大规模地
04:04
of momentous scale.
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施加压力。
04:07
We may, in fact, have entered a new geological era --
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我们可能,实际上,已经进入了一个新的地质时代,
04:10
the Anthropocene,
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人类世,
04:12
where humans are the predominant driver of change
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指的是人类是在行星级别中造成变化
04:14
at a planetary level.
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的主要驱动。
04:16
Now, as a scientist,
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现在,作为一名科学家,
04:18
what's the evidence for this?
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有什么证据呢?
04:20
Well, the evidence is,
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证据是,
04:22
unfortunately, ample.
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不幸的是,太多了。
04:24
It's not only carbon dioxide
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不仅仅是二氧化碳
04:26
that has this hockey stick pattern of accelerated change.
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极大地加速了变化的进程。
04:29
You can take virtually any parameter
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你几乎可以把任何参数
04:31
that matters for human well-being --
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跟人类相关的任何参数--
04:33
nitrous oxide, methane,
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一氧化二氮,甲烷,
04:35
deforestation, overfishing
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砍伐森林,过度捕捞,
04:37
land degredation, loss of species --
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土地退化,物种的灭绝--
04:40
they all show the same pattern
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它们都证明了过去的200年中
04:42
over the past 200 years.
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同一种模式。
04:45
Simultaneously, they branch off in the mid-50s,
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与此同时,在50年代中期,
04:48
10 years after the Second World War,
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第二次世界大战后的10年,
04:51
showing very clearly that the great acceleration of the human enterprise
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非常清楚的证明了在50年代中期伟大的人类事业
04:54
starts in the mid-50s.
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开始加速提高。
04:56
You see, for the first time, an imprint on the global level.
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你看,第一次,在全球范围内的一个印记。
04:59
And I can tell you,
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我可以告诉你,
05:01
you enter the disciplinary research in each of these,
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当你开始研究这每一个学科,
05:03
you find something remarkably important,
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你会发现一些非常重要的东西,
05:06
the conclusion that we may have come to the point
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结果是我们可能已经到达了
05:09
where we have to bend the curves,
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必须改变曲线走向程度,
05:11
that we may have entered the most challenging and exciting decade
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在地球上整个人类的历史中,我们可能已经进入了
05:14
in the history humanity on the planet,
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最富有挑战性和刺激性的时代,
05:17
the decade when we have to bend the curves.
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一个我们必须改变曲线走向的时代。
05:20
Now, as if this was not enough --
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现在,仿佛这还不够--
05:22
to just bend the curves and understanding the accelerated pressure on the planet --
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仅仅是改变曲线走向和了解到这颗星球上的急剧增加的压力--
05:25
we also have to recognize the fact
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我们也要意识到一个事实
05:27
that systems do have multiple stable states,
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那就是系统有多种稳定状态,
05:30
separated by thresholds -- illustrated here by this ball and cup diagram,
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在曲线上由一个个槛区分开来--我在这个用球杯图来表示,
05:33
where the depth of the cup is the resilience of the system.
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杯子的深度代表了系统的适应能力。
05:36
Now, the system may gradually --
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现在,系统逐渐地--
05:39
under pressure of climate change,
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受到气候变化,
05:41
erosion, biodiversity loss --
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侵蚀,生物多样性丧失的压力--
05:43
lose the depth of the cup, the resilience,
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于是杯子的深度开始减少,也就是系统适应能力降低,
05:45
but appear to be healthy
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但似乎是健康的
05:47
and appear to suddenly, under a threshold,
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也似乎是突然间,经过一个槛后,
05:49
be tipping over. Upff.
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又跌落到某一界限下了。哦。
05:51
Sorry. Changing state
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抱歉。改变了原有状态
05:54
and literally ending up
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确实滑落到
05:56
in an undesired situation,
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一个出乎意料的状态,
06:00
where new biophysical logic takes over,
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从那里开始,新的生物物理逻辑开始运作,
06:03
new species take over, and the system gets locked.
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新的物种开始出现,系统再次平衡。
06:05
Do we have evidence of this? Yes, coral reef systems.
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我们有证据吗?是的,珊瑚礁系统。
06:09
Biodiverse, low-nutrient, hard coral systems
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生物的多样,低养份,硬珊瑚系统
06:12
under multiple pressures of overfishing,
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在过渡捕捞,
06:15
unsustainable tourism, climate change.
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不可持续的旅游业,气候变化等多重压力下。
06:17
A trigger and the system tips over,
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系统的崩溃一触即发,
06:19
loses its resilience,
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失去了它的适应能力,
06:21
soft corals take over,
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从而软珊瑚取而代之,
06:23
and we get undesired systems
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留给我们一个我们出乎意料的系统
06:25
that cannot support economic and social development.
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一个不能维系经济和社会发展的系统。
06:27
The Arctic -- a beautiful system --
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北极,一个美丽的生态系统,
06:29
a regulating biome at the planetary level,
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我们地球上一个有调节作用的生物群落
06:31
taking the knock after knock on climate change,
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受到气候变化的一次次冲击,
06:34
appearing to be in a good state.
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看上去似乎还可以。
06:36
No scientist could predict that in 2007,
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没有科学家能够预测在2007年
06:38
suddenly, what could be crossing a threshold.
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突然间,有什么能够跨越这个界限槛。
06:41
The system suddenly, very surprisingly, loses 30 to 40 percent
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生态系统突然间,非常出人意料地,失去了百分之三十到四十
06:43
of its summer ice cover.
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的夏季冰覆盖率。
06:45
And the drama is, of course, that
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当然,具有戏剧效果的是,
06:47
when the system does this, the logic may change.
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当生态系统发生了变化,其中的逻辑也跟着变化。
06:49
It may get locked in an undesired state,
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这可能锁定了一种不希望的状态,
06:51
because it changes color, absorbs more energy,
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因为它改变了颜色,吸收了更多的能量,
06:53
and the system may get stuck.
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系统可能陷入困境。
06:55
In my mind, the largest red flag warning for humanity
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我认为,对于人类来说最大的一面红旗警示是
06:58
that we are in a precarious situation.
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我们处在一个岌岌可危的时期。
07:01
As a sideline, you know that the only red flag that popped up here
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顺便说一下,你知道在那里的唯一一个红色旗
07:04
was a submarine from an unnamed country
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是一架从一个不知名国家来的潜水艇
07:06
that planted a red flag at the bottom of the Arctic
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在北极底部插上一面红旗
07:09
to be able to control the oil resources.
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从而得以控制石油资源。
07:12
Now, if we have evidence, which we now have,
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现在,如果我们有证据,我们现在有了,
07:15
that wetlands, forests,
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湿地,森林,
07:17
[unclear] monsoon system, the rainforests,
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热带雨林,
07:19
behave in this nonlinear way.
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不是按照线性方式运作。
07:21
30 or so scientists around the world
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全世界大约有30名科学家
07:23
gathered and asked a question for the first time,
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聚在一起,第一次问了一个问题,
07:25
"Do we have to put the planet into the the pot?"
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“我们要把这星球陷入困境吗?”
07:27
So we have to ask ourselves:
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所以,我们必须问自己:
07:29
are we threatening this extraordinarily stable Holocene state?
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我们正在威胁这个非常稳定的全新世界吗?
07:33
Are we in fact putting ourselves in a situation
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我们真的要将我们自己置于一个困境?
07:35
where we're coming too close
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我们即将接近
07:37
to thresholds that could lead
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下一个界限而可能引向
07:39
to deleterious and very undesired,
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有害的,
07:41
if now catastrophic, change
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我们极不希望看到的,好比现在灾难性的
07:43
for human development?
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为人类发展而做的改变。
07:45
You know, you don't want to stand there.
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要知道,你并不希望站在那里。
07:47
In fact, you're not even allowed to stand
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实际上,根本不允许你站在那里
07:49
where this gentleman is standing,
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那是这位绅士站着的地方,
07:51
at the foaming, slippery waters at the threshold.
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在那个槛,湿滑的水冒着泡。
07:54
In fact, there's a fence
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实际上,在这个界限的高处
07:56
quite upstream of this threshold,
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有个护栏,
07:58
beyond which you are in a danger zone.
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在危险区之上。
08:00
And this is the new paradigm,
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这是个新的模式,
08:02
which we gathered two, three years back,
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根据我们过去的两、三年收集的信息,
08:04
recognizing that our old paradigm
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我们发现我们旧的模式
08:06
of just analyzing and pushing and predicting
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仅仅是分析、引用和预测
08:08
parameters into the future,
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影响未来的参数,
08:10
aiming at minimalizing environmental impacts, is of the past.
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目标是减小环境的冲击,那是过去式。
08:13
Now we to ask ourselves:
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现在,我们问我们自己:
08:15
which are the large environmental processes
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哪个是最大的环境进程
08:17
that we have to be stewards of
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我们必须要管的
08:19
to keep ourselves safe in the Holocene?
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以保证我们自己在全新世的安全?
08:21
And could we even,
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我们甚至可以
08:23
thanks to major advancements in Earth systems science,
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感谢地球系统科学的重大发展,
08:25
identify the thresholds,
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发现这些一个个槛,
08:27
the points where we may expect nonlinear change?
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我们所期望的非线性变化的界限点?
08:30
And could we even define
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我们甚至能定义
08:32
a planetary boundary, a fence,
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地球界限,一个护栏,
08:35
within which we then have a safe operating space for humanity?
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通过这些,我们人类就可以有个安全的工作空间吗?
08:38
This work, which was published in "Nature,"
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在2009年底,“自然”杂志上发表的这个项目
08:40
late 2009,
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08:42
after a number of years of analysis,
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经过数年的分析,
08:44
led to the final proposition
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终于得出最后的提议,
08:47
that we can only find
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那就是我们只能够找到
08:49
nine planetary boundaries
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九个地球界限
08:51
with which, under active stewardship,
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在积极领导下,
08:54
would allow ourselves to have a safe operating space.
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可能允许我们自己有个安全的工作空间。
08:57
These include, of course, climate.
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这包括了,当然的,气候。
08:59
It may surprise you that it's not only climate.
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你可能觉得惊奇,不仅仅是气候。
09:01
But it shows that we are interconnected, among many systems on the planet,
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但是,它告诉了我们,我们是同这个星球上众多的生态系统息息相关的,
09:04
with the three big systems, climate change,
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特别是其中的三大系统,气候变化,
09:06
stratospheric ozone depletion and ocean acidification
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臭氧层的削弱和海洋酸化
09:09
being the three big systems,
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是这三大系统,
09:11
where the scientific evidence of large-scale thresholds
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从古地球的历史记录里已经有
09:14
in the paleo-record of the history of the planet.
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大量的科学证据。
09:17
But we also include, what we call, the slow variables,
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但是,我们也包括,我们所谓的,慢性变量,
09:20
the systems that, under the hood,
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这些系统,在表面下,
09:22
regulate and buffer the capacity of the resilience of the planet --
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调节和缓冲着地球的适应能力--
09:25
the interference of the big nitrogen and phosphorus cycles on the planet,
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地球上氮磷大循环的干扰,
09:28
land use change, rate of biodiversity loss,
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土地使用的变更,物种多样性的降低率
09:30
freshwater use,
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淡水的使用,
09:32
functions which regulate
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有调节
09:35
biomass on the planet, carbon sequestration, diversity.
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地球上的生物量,碳汇,多样性的作用。
09:38
And then we have two parameters which we were not able to quantify --
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还有两个我们无法量化的参数--
09:41
air pollution,
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空气污染,
09:43
including warming gases and air-polluting sulfates and nitrates,
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包括温室气体和空气污染的硫酸盐和硝酸盐,
09:46
but also chemical pollution.
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以及化学污染。
09:49
Together, these form an integrated whole
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加在一起,这些综合成
09:52
for guiding human development in the Anthropocene,
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在人类世指导人类发展,
09:54
understanding that the planet
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理解地球上的
09:56
is a complex self-regulating system.
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复杂的自我调节系统。
09:59
In fact, most evidence indicates
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事实是,大多数证据指出
10:01
that these nine may behave as three Musketeers,
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这九大界限或许像三剑客一样--
10:04
"One for all. All for one."
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“我为人人,人人为我。”
10:06
You degrade forests, you go beyond the boundary on land,
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人们滥伐森林,人们超越了土地的界限,
10:09
you undermine the ability of the climate system
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人们破坏了气候系统保持稳定
10:11
to stay stable.
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的能力。
10:13
The drama here is, in fact, that
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有戏剧效果的是,实际上,
10:15
it may show that the climate challenge
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气候的挑战
10:17
is the easy one,
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可能是很简单的,
10:19
if you consider the whole challenge
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如果你考虑可持续发展的
10:21
of sustainable development.
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整体性的挑战。
10:24
Now this is the Big Bang equivalent then of human development
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现在,这个对于人类发展来说等同于大爆炸
10:27
within the safe operating space of the planetary boundaries.
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在地球界限内的安全工作空间。
10:29
What you see here in black line is the safe operating space,
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按照这一分析所建议的,你看到的这条黑线是安全工作空间,
10:32
the quantified boundaries,
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量化了的界限
10:34
as suggested by this analysis.
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10:36
The yellow dot in the middle here is our starting point,
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在中间的黄点是我们的开始点,
10:38
the pre-industrial point,
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前工业化点,
10:40
where we're very safely in the safe operating space.
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我们在安全工作空间里非常地安全。
10:42
In the '50s, we start branching out.
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50年代,我们开始发散。
10:45
In the '60s already, through the green revolution
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60年代通过绿色革命
10:47
and the Haber-Bosch process
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和固定大气中的氮
10:49
of fixing nitrogen from the atmosphere --
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的哈柏法--
10:51
you know, human's today take out more nitrogen from the atmosphere
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你知道,人类今天从大气中提取氮的含量
10:54
than the whole biosphere does naturally as a whole.
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远远大于整个生物圈在自然情况下所提取的。
10:58
We don't transgress the climate boundary until the early '90s,
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我们没有越过气候界限直到90年代早期,
11:01
actually, right after Rio.
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实际上,是在里约热内卢召开的地球峰会之后。
11:03
And today, we are in a situation where we estimate
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今天,我们的处境是我们估计
11:05
that we've transgressed three boundaries,
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我们已经越过三个界限,
11:07
the rate of biodiversity loss,
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物种多样性的降低率,
11:09
which is the sixth extinction period in the history of humanity --
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这是在人类历史上的第六个灭绝时期--
11:12
one of them being the extinctions of the dinosaurs --
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其中的一个是恐龙灭绝--
11:15
nitrogen and climate change.
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氮气和气候变化。
11:17
But we still have some degrees of freedom on the others,
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但是,我们在其它界限上还有些空间,
11:19
but we are approaching fast
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但是我们接近土地
11:21
on land, water, phosphorus and oceans.
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水源,磷和海洋的速度实在是太快了。
11:23
But this gives a new paradigm
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但这给了我们一个新的模式
11:25
to guide humanity,
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来指导人类,
11:27
to put the light on our, so far
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为我们运转过度的工业引擎
11:30
overpowered industrial vehicle,
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开启一个新曙光,
11:32
which operates as if
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我们原先仅仅是行驶在一条
11:34
we're only on a dark, straight highway.
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黑暗笔直的公路上。
11:37
Now the question then is:
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现在的问题是:
11:39
how gloomy is this?
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有多黑暗?
11:41
Is then sustainable development utopia?
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可持续发展会成为乌托邦么?
11:43
Well, there's no science to suggest.
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没有科学能够给与答案。
11:45
In fact, there is ample science
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实际上,大量的科学
11:47
to indicate that we can do this transformative change,
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表明我们能够完成这次变革,
11:50
that we have the ability
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我们有能力
11:52
to now move into a new innovative,
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进入一个新的,创新性的,
11:55
a transformative gear,
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转型的,跨尺度的,
11:57
across scales.
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新时期。
11:59
The drama is, of course,
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当然,有戏剧效果的是,
12:01
is that 200 countries on this planet
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地球上的200多个国家
12:03
have to simultaneously start moving
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都同时朝着同一个方向
12:05
in the same direction.
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开始绿色行动。
12:07
But it changes fundamentally our governance and management paradigm,
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但是这从根本上改变了我们政府和管理的模式,
12:10
from the current linear,
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从现在的线性模式,
12:12
command and control thinking,
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命令和控制性的思考,
12:14
looking at efficiencies and optimization
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关注有效性和优化性
12:16
towards a much more flexible,
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朝着一个更加灵活的,
12:19
a much more adaptive approach,
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一个更加能适应的模式,
12:21
where we recognize that redundancy,
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我们意识到无论社会和环境体系中的
12:23
both in social and environmental systems,
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繁冗,
12:25
is key to be able to deal
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都是能够顺应
12:27
with a turbulent era of global change.
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瞬息万变的全球化改变的关键。
12:30
We have to invest in persistence,
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我们要在持续性上投资,
12:32
in the ability of social systems and ecological systems
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在社交系统和生态系统
12:35
to withstand shocks and still remain in that desired cup.
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能够承受巨大变动,仍然保持我们所希望的适应力曲线。
12:38
We have to invest in transformations capability,
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我们要在改革能力上投资,
12:41
moving from crisis into innovation
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将危机化为创新,
12:44
and the ability to rise after a crisis,
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在危机后再次崛起的能力,
12:47
and of course to adapt to unavoidable change.
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当然还有适应不可避免的变化的能力。
12:49
This is a new paradigm.
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这是一个新的模式。
12:51
We're not doing that at any scale on governance.
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我们不在任何政府层面上完成。
12:54
But is it happening anywhere?
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那这会发生么?
12:56
Do we have any examples of success
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我们有在地方级别上
12:58
on this mind shift being applied at the local level?
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应用这种思想变革的成功的例子么?
13:01
Well, yes, in fact we do
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有的。实际上我们有,
13:04
and the list can start becoming longer and longer.
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这份成功的名单正在变得更长。
13:06
There's good news here,
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好消息是,
13:08
for example, from Latin America,
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例如,在拉丁美洲,
13:10
where plow-based farming systems
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在那里,50年代和60年代的
13:13
of the '50s and '60s
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以犁耕为基础的农业系统
13:15
led farming basically to a dead-end,
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基本上这样的农业系统是没有出路的,
13:17
with lower and lower yields, degrading the organic matter
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越来越低的产量,降解有机物
13:20
and fundamental problems at the livelihood levels
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和在巴拉圭,乌拉圭和一些国家,巴西
13:23
in Paraguay, Uruguay and a number of countries, Brazil,
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的民生基本问题,
13:26
leading to innovation and entrepreneurship
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这导致农民和科学家们合作
13:28
among farmers in partnership with scientists
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一起创新,
13:30
into an agricultural revolution of zero tillage systems
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进入一个将免耕系统和
13:33
combined with mulch farming
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覆盖耕作的农业革命,
13:35
with locally adapted technologies,
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同时还有适应地方上需要的科技,
13:37
which today, for example, in some countries,
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今天,比如,在一些国家,
13:40
have led to a tremendous increase
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已经在覆盖耕作,免耕区域
13:42
in area under mulch, zero till farming
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取得了巨大的增长,
13:45
which, not only produces more food,
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不仅仅是生产出更多的粮食,
13:47
but also sequesters carbon.
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而且吸收了多余的碳,降低排放。
13:49
The Australian Great Barrier Reef is another success story.
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澳大利亚大堡礁是另一个成功故事。
13:52
Under the realization from tourist operators,
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从旅游经营者,
13:54
fishermen,
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渔夫们,
13:56
the Australian Great Barrier Reef Authority and scientists
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澳大利亚大堡礁管理局和科学家们所意识到的,
13:59
that the Great Barrier Reef is doomed
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在现行的管理制度下,
14:01
under the current governance regime.
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大堡礁注定要灭亡的。
14:04
Global change, beautification rack culture,
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全球变化,美化文化,
14:06
overfishing and unsustainable tourism,
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过度捕捞和不可持续的旅游业,
14:08
all together placing this system
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所有这一切将这个系统
14:10
in the realization of crisis.
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陷入危机中。
14:12
But the window of opportunity was innovation and new mindset,
356
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但是创新和新观念带来了机会,
14:14
which today has led to a completely new governance strategy
357
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今天已经完成了新的管理机制
14:17
to build resilience,
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来建立应急能力,
14:19
acknowledge redundancy
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认识到繁冗性,
14:21
and invest in the whole system as an integrated whole,
360
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并在综合方面投资整个系统,
14:24
and then allow for much more redundancy in the system.
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这样允许生态系统有更多的繁复之处。
14:27
Sweden, the country I come from, has other examples,
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我所来自的国家瑞典,有另外一个例子,
14:30
where wetlands in southern Sweden were seen as --
363
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在瑞典南部,湿地被看做是
14:33
as in many countries -- as flood-prone polluted nuisance
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跟很多国家一样--像洪水污染泛滥一样
14:36
in the peri-urban regions.
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使周围的城市地区厌恶。
14:38
But again, a crisis, new partnerships,
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但是又一次的危机,新的合作,
14:41
actors locally, transforming these
367
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地方上的执行者们,将这些变成
14:43
into a key component
368
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可持续城市计划的一个
14:45
of sustainable urban planning.
369
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关键组成部分。
14:47
So crisis leading into opportunities.
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危机变成了机会。
14:51
Now, what about the future?
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好,那未来呢?
14:53
Well, the future, of course, has one massive challenge,
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当然,未来是个巨大的挑战,
14:56
which is feeding a world of nine billion people.
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要供给全世界90亿人。
14:58
We need nothing less than a new green revolution,
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除了绿色革命我们不需要其它的什么,
15:00
and the planet boundaries shows
375
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地球界限显示
15:02
that agriculture has to go from a source of greenhouse gases to a sink.
376
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农业已经从一个温室气体排放器到接收器。
15:05
It has to basically do this on current land.
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我们现今的土地正发挥这样的作用。
15:08
We cannot expand anymore,
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我们不能再扩张了,
15:10
because it erodes the planetary boundaries.
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因为已经侵蚀到地球界限了。
15:12
We cannot continue consuming water as we do today,
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我们不能再像我们今天这样继续使用水了,
15:15
with 25 percent of world rivers not even reaching the ocean.
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世界上百分之25的河流都无法流向大海。
15:18
And we need a transformation.
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我们需要一个变革。
15:20
Well, interestingly, and based on my work
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有趣的是,根据我的研究
15:22
and others in Africa, for example,
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和其他人在非洲的研究,比如,
15:24
we've shown that even the most vulnerable small-scale rainfall farming systems,
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我们讲了即便是最最宝贵的小型降雨耕作系统,
15:27
with innovations and supplementary irrigation
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有了创新和补充灌溉
15:29
to bridge dry spells and droughts,
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也能解决干旱和旱灾,
15:31
sustainable sanitation systems to close the loop on nutrients
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可持续性卫生系统将养分从厕所
15:34
from toilets back to farmers' fields,
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循环到农田,
15:37
and innovations in tillage systems,
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创新的耕作系统,
15:39
we can triple, quadruple, yield levels
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我们可以在现有的农田上
15:41
on current land.
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得到三倍,四倍的产量。
15:43
Elinor Ostrom,
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埃莉诺奥斯特罗姆,
15:45
the latest Nobel laureate of economics,
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最新的诺贝尔经济学奖得主,
15:47
clearly shows empirically across the world
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向全世界展示经验
15:49
that we can govern the commons
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那就是我们能管理好,
15:51
if we invest in trust,
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如果我们在信心上,
15:54
local, action-based partnerships
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地方上,以行动为基础的合作伙伴关系上
15:57
and cross-scale institutional innovations,
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和跨机构的创新体制上投资,
16:01
where local actors,
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与地方上的执行者们一起,
16:04
together, can deal with the global commons
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能够在大规模上
16:06
at a large scale.
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处理全球共有的问题。
16:08
But even on the hard policy area we have innovations.
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但是,即便在复杂政治领域,我们也能创新。
16:11
We know that we have to move from our fossil dependence
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我们知道我们必须从依赖石油快速转变到
16:13
very quickly into a low-carbon economy in record time.
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低碳经济。
16:16
And what shall we do?
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我们该怎么办呢?
16:18
Everybody talks about carbon taxes -- it won't work -- emission schemes,
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每个人都在讲碳税--这个不会起作用--碳排放收费计划,
16:21
but for example, one policy measure,
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但是,例如,一个政策措施,
16:23
feed-in tariffs on the energy system,
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对能量系统的电力收购政策,
16:25
which is already applied,
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其实这个已经在实施,
16:27
from China doing it on offshore wind systems,
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从中国对其海上发电系统收购,
16:29
all the way to the U.S.
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一直到美国,
16:31
where you give the guaranteed price for investment in renewable energy,
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你保证了在可再生能源投资的收购价格,
16:33
but you can subsidize electricity to poor people.
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然后能给穷人补贴电费。
16:36
You get people out of poverty.
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让人们摆脱贫穷。
16:38
You solve the climate issue with regards to the energy sector,
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人们在能源方面解决了气候问题,
16:40
while at the same time, stimulating innovation --
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与此同时,刺激了创新--
16:43
examples of things that can be out scaled quickly
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在全球范围内迅速出现了
16:45
at the planetary level.
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类似的例子。
16:47
So there is -- no doubt -- opportunity here,
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这样,毫无疑问地,机会出现了,
16:49
and we can list many, many examples
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我们可以列举出很多,很多
16:52
of transformative opportunities around the planet.
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全球上变革机会的例子。
16:55
The key though in all of these,
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所有这一切的关键,
16:57
the red thread,
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红色警示
16:59
is the shift in mindset,
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意味观念要改变,
17:01
moving away from a situation where we simply are pushing ourselves
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改变了我们只是单一地将我们自己推进
17:04
into a dark future,
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一个黑暗的未来的状况,
17:06
where we instead backcast our future,
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而是展望我们的未来,
17:08
and we say, "What is the playing field on the planet?
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我们说,“什么是地球的绿色竞技场呢?
17:11
What are the planetary boundaries
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什么是我们能够安全生活的
17:13
within which we can safely operate?"
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地球边界?”
17:15
and then backtrack innovations within that.
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正是危机背后推动的创新。
17:17
But of course, the drama is, it clearly shows
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但是,当然的,它清楚地显示出
17:19
that incremental change is not an option.
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渐进式的变化是不可行的。
17:22
So, there is scientific evidence.
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这是科学证据。
17:24
They sort of say the harsh news,
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他们算是说了些重要的新闻,
17:26
that we are facing the largest
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那就是我们正面临着
17:28
transformative development
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自工业化以来的最大的
17:30
since the industrialization.
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变革发展。
17:32
In fact, what we have to do over the next 40 years
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事实上,我们在今后的40年中应该做的
17:34
is much more dramatic and more exciting
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更戏剧化,也更加激动人心
17:37
than what we did when we moved into
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相比当初我们刚面对
17:40
the situation we're in today.
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今天这个情况时所做的。
17:42
Now, science indicates that,
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现在,科学指出,
17:44
yes, we can achieve a prosperous future
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是的,在安全可操作区域,我们能实现
17:46
within the safe operating space,
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一个繁荣的未来理想,
17:48
if we move simultaneously,
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如果我们同时行动,
17:50
collaborating on a global level, from local to global scale,
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在全球层面上的合作,从地方到全球,
17:53
in transformative options, which build resilience on a finite planet.
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在一个有限的地球建立一种变革的适应性。
17:56
Thank you.
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谢谢。
17:58
(Applause)
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(鼓掌)
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