Let the environment guide our development | Johan Rockstrom

427,516 views ・ 2010-08-31

TED


Please double-click on the English subtitles below to play the video.

00:15
We live on a human-dominated planet,
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putting unprecedented pressure
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on the systems on Earth.
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This is bad news, but perhaps surprising to you,
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it's also part of the good news.
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We're the first generation -- thanks to science --
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to be informed that we may be
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undermining the stability and the ability
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of planet Earth
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to support human development as we know it.
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It's also good news, because the planetary risks we're facing
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are so large,
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that business as usual is not an option.
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In fact, we're in a phase
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where transformative change is necessary,
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which opens the window for innovation,
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for new ideas and new paradigms.
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This is a scientific journey on the challenges facing humanity
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in the global phase of sustainability.
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On this journey, I'd like to bring, apart from yourselves,
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a good friend,
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a stakeholder, who's always absent
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when we deal with the negotiations on environmental issues,
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a stakeholder who refuses to compromise --
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planet Earth.
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So I thought I'd bring her with me today on stage,
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to have her as a witness
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of a remarkable journey,
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which humbly reminds us
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of the period of grace we've had
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over the past 10,000 years.
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This is the living conditions on the planet over the last 100,000 years.
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It's a very important period --
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it's roughly half the period when we've been fully modern humans on the planet.
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We've had the same, roughly, abilities
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that developed civilizations as we know it.
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This is the environmental conditions on the planet.
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Here, used as a proxy, temperature variability.
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It was a jumpy ride. 80,000 years back in a crisis,
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we leave Africa, we colonize Australia
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in another crisis, 60,000 years back,
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we leave Asia for Europe
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in another crisis, 40,000 years back,
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and then we enter
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the remarkably stable Holocene phase,
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the only period in the whole history of the planet,
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that we know of, that can support human development.
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A thousand years into this period,
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we abandon our hunting and gathering patterns.
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We go from a couple of million people
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to the seven billion people we are today.
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The Mesopotamian culture: we invent agriculture,
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we domesticate animals and plants.
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You have the Roman, the Greek and the story as you know it.
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The only phase, as we know it
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that can support humanity.
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The trouble is we're putting a quadruple sqeeze
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on this poor planet,
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a quadruple sqeeze, which, as its first squeeze,
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has population growth of course.
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Now, this is not only about numbers;
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this is not only about the fact that we're seven billion people
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committed to nine billion people, it's an equity issue as well.
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The majority of the environmental impacts on the planet
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have been caused by the rich minority,
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the 20 percent that jumped onto the industrial bandwagon
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in the mid-18th century.
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The majority of the planet,
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aspiring for development, having the right for development,
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are in large aspiring for an unsustainable lifestyle,
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a momentous pressure.
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The second pressure on the planet is, of course the climate agenda --
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the big issue -- where the policy interpretation of science
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is that it would be enough
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to stabilize greenhouse gases at 450 ppm
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to avoid average temperatures
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exceeding two degrees,
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to avoid the risk that we may be destabilizing
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the West Antarctic Ice Sheet,
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holding six meters -- level rising,
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the risk of destabilizing the Greenland Ice Sheet,
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holding another seven meters -- sea level rising.
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Now, you would have wished the climate pressure
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to hit a strong planet, a resilient planet,
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but unfortunately, the third pressure
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is the ecosystem decline.
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Never have we seen, in the past 50 years,
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such a sharp decline
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of ecosystem functions and services on the planet,
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one of them being the ability to regulate climate on the long term,
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in our forests, land and biodiversity.
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The forth pressure is surprise,
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the notion and the evidence
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that we need to abandon our old paradigm,
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that ecosystems behave linearly, predictably,
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controllably in our -- so to say -- linear systems,
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and that in fact, surprise is universal,
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as systems tip over very rapidly, abruptly
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and often irreversibly.
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This, dear friends, poses a human pressure on the planet
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of momentous scale.
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We may, in fact, have entered a new geological era --
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the Anthropocene,
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where humans are the predominant driver of change
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at a planetary level.
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Now, as a scientist,
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what's the evidence for this?
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Well, the evidence is,
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unfortunately, ample.
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It's not only carbon dioxide
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that has this hockey stick pattern of accelerated change.
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You can take virtually any parameter
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that matters for human well-being --
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nitrous oxide, methane,
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deforestation, overfishing
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land degredation, loss of species --
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they all show the same pattern
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over the past 200 years.
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Simultaneously, they branch off in the mid-50s,
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10 years after the Second World War,
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showing very clearly that the great acceleration of the human enterprise
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starts in the mid-50s.
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You see, for the first time, an imprint on the global level.
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And I can tell you,
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you enter the disciplinary research in each of these,
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you find something remarkably important,
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the conclusion that we may have come to the point
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where we have to bend the curves,
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that we may have entered the most challenging and exciting decade
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in the history humanity on the planet,
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the decade when we have to bend the curves.
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Now, as if this was not enough --
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to just bend the curves and understanding the accelerated pressure on the planet --
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we also have to recognize the fact
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that systems do have multiple stable states,
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separated by thresholds -- illustrated here by this ball and cup diagram,
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where the depth of the cup is the resilience of the system.
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Now, the system may gradually --
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under pressure of climate change,
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erosion, biodiversity loss --
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lose the depth of the cup, the resilience,
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but appear to be healthy
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and appear to suddenly, under a threshold,
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be tipping over. Upff.
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Sorry. Changing state
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and literally ending up
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in an undesired situation,
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where new biophysical logic takes over,
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new species take over, and the system gets locked.
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Do we have evidence of this? Yes, coral reef systems.
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Biodiverse, low-nutrient, hard coral systems
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under multiple pressures of overfishing,
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unsustainable tourism, climate change.
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A trigger and the system tips over,
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loses its resilience,
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soft corals take over,
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and we get undesired systems
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that cannot support economic and social development.
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The Arctic -- a beautiful system --
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a regulating biome at the planetary level,
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taking the knock after knock on climate change,
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appearing to be in a good state.
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No scientist could predict that in 2007,
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suddenly, what could be crossing a threshold.
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The system suddenly, very surprisingly, loses 30 to 40 percent
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of its summer ice cover.
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And the drama is, of course, that
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when the system does this, the logic may change.
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It may get locked in an undesired state,
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because it changes color, absorbs more energy,
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and the system may get stuck.
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In my mind, the largest red flag warning for humanity
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that we are in a precarious situation.
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As a sideline, you know that the only red flag that popped up here
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was a submarine from an unnamed country
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that planted a red flag at the bottom of the Arctic
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to be able to control the oil resources.
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Now, if we have evidence, which we now have,
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that wetlands, forests,
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[unclear] monsoon system, the rainforests,
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behave in this nonlinear way.
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30 or so scientists around the world
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gathered and asked a question for the first time,
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"Do we have to put the planet into the the pot?"
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So we have to ask ourselves:
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are we threatening this extraordinarily stable Holocene state?
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Are we in fact putting ourselves in a situation
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where we're coming too close
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to thresholds that could lead
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to deleterious and very undesired,
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if now catastrophic, change
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for human development?
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You know, you don't want to stand there.
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In fact, you're not even allowed to stand
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where this gentleman is standing,
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at the foaming, slippery waters at the threshold.
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In fact, there's a fence
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quite upstream of this threshold,
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beyond which you are in a danger zone.
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And this is the new paradigm,
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which we gathered two, three years back,
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recognizing that our old paradigm
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of just analyzing and pushing and predicting
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parameters into the future,
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aiming at minimalizing environmental impacts, is of the past.
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Now we to ask ourselves:
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which are the large environmental processes
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that we have to be stewards of
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to keep ourselves safe in the Holocene?
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And could we even,
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thanks to major advancements in Earth systems science,
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identify the thresholds,
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the points where we may expect nonlinear change?
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And could we even define
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a planetary boundary, a fence,
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within which we then have a safe operating space for humanity?
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This work, which was published in "Nature,"
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late 2009,
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after a number of years of analysis,
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led to the final proposition
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that we can only find
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nine planetary boundaries
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with which, under active stewardship,
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would allow ourselves to have a safe operating space.
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These include, of course, climate.
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It may surprise you that it's not only climate.
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But it shows that we are interconnected, among many systems on the planet,
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with the three big systems, climate change,
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stratospheric ozone depletion and ocean acidification
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being the three big systems,
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where the scientific evidence of large-scale thresholds
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in the paleo-record of the history of the planet.
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But we also include, what we call, the slow variables,
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the systems that, under the hood,
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regulate and buffer the capacity of the resilience of the planet --
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the interference of the big nitrogen and phosphorus cycles on the planet,
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land use change, rate of biodiversity loss,
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freshwater use,
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functions which regulate
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biomass on the planet, carbon sequestration, diversity.
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And then we have two parameters which we were not able to quantify --
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air pollution,
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including warming gases and air-polluting sulfates and nitrates,
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but also chemical pollution.
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Together, these form an integrated whole
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for guiding human development in the Anthropocene,
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understanding that the planet
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is a complex self-regulating system.
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In fact, most evidence indicates
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that these nine may behave as three Musketeers,
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"One for all. All for one."
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You degrade forests, you go beyond the boundary on land,
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you undermine the ability of the climate system
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to stay stable.
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The drama here is, in fact, that
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it may show that the climate challenge
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is the easy one,
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if you consider the whole challenge
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of sustainable development.
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Now this is the Big Bang equivalent then of human development
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within the safe operating space of the planetary boundaries.
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What you see here in black line is the safe operating space,
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the quantified boundaries,
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as suggested by this analysis.
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The yellow dot in the middle here is our starting point,
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the pre-industrial point,
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where we're very safely in the safe operating space.
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In the '50s, we start branching out.
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In the '60s already, through the green revolution
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and the Haber-Bosch process
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of fixing nitrogen from the atmosphere --
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you know, human's today take out more nitrogen from the atmosphere
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than the whole biosphere does naturally as a whole.
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We don't transgress the climate boundary until the early '90s,
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actually, right after Rio.
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And today, we are in a situation where we estimate
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that we've transgressed three boundaries,
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the rate of biodiversity loss,
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which is the sixth extinction period in the history of humanity --
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one of them being the extinctions of the dinosaurs --
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nitrogen and climate change.
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But we still have some degrees of freedom on the others,
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but we are approaching fast
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on land, water, phosphorus and oceans.
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But this gives a new paradigm
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to guide humanity,
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to put the light on our, so far
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overpowered industrial vehicle,
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which operates as if
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we're only on a dark, straight highway.
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Now the question then is:
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how gloomy is this?
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Is then sustainable development utopia?
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Well, there's no science to suggest.
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In fact, there is ample science
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to indicate that we can do this transformative change,
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that we have the ability
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to now move into a new innovative,
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a transformative gear,
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across scales.
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The drama is, of course,
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is that 200 countries on this planet
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have to simultaneously start moving
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in the same direction.
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But it changes fundamentally our governance and management paradigm,
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from the current linear,
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command and control thinking,
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looking at efficiencies and optimization
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towards a much more flexible,
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a much more adaptive approach,
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where we recognize that redundancy,
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both in social and environmental systems,
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is key to be able to deal
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with a turbulent era of global change.
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We have to invest in persistence,
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in the ability of social systems and ecological systems
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to withstand shocks and still remain in that desired cup.
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We have to invest in transformations capability,
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moving from crisis into innovation
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and the ability to rise after a crisis,
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and of course to adapt to unavoidable change.
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This is a new paradigm.
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We're not doing that at any scale on governance.
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But is it happening anywhere?
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Do we have any examples of success
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on this mind shift being applied at the local level?
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Well, yes, in fact we do
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and the list can start becoming longer and longer.
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There's good news here,
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for example, from Latin America,
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where plow-based farming systems
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of the '50s and '60s
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led farming basically to a dead-end,
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with lower and lower yields, degrading the organic matter
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and fundamental problems at the livelihood levels
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in Paraguay, Uruguay and a number of countries, Brazil,
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leading to innovation and entrepreneurship
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among farmers in partnership with scientists
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into an agricultural revolution of zero tillage systems
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combined with mulch farming
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with locally adapted technologies,
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which today, for example, in some countries,
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have led to a tremendous increase
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in area under mulch, zero till farming
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which, not only produces more food,
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but also sequesters carbon.
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The Australian Great Barrier Reef is another success story.
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Under the realization from tourist operators,
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fishermen,
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the Australian Great Barrier Reef Authority and scientists
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that the Great Barrier Reef is doomed
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under the current governance regime.
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Global change, beautification rack culture,
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overfishing and unsustainable tourism,
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all together placing this system
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in the realization of crisis.
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But the window of opportunity was innovation and new mindset,
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which today has led to a completely new governance strategy
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to build resilience,
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acknowledge redundancy
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and invest in the whole system as an integrated whole,
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and then allow for much more redundancy in the system.
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Sweden, the country I come from, has other examples,
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where wetlands in southern Sweden were seen as --
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as in many countries -- as flood-prone polluted nuisance
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in the peri-urban regions.
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But again, a crisis, new partnerships,
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actors locally, transforming these
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into a key component
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of sustainable urban planning.
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So crisis leading into opportunities.
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Now, what about the future?
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Well, the future, of course, has one massive challenge,
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which is feeding a world of nine billion people.
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We need nothing less than a new green revolution,
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and the planet boundaries shows
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that agriculture has to go from a source of greenhouse gases to a sink.
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It has to basically do this on current land.
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We cannot expand anymore,
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because it erodes the planetary boundaries.
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We cannot continue consuming water as we do today,
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with 25 percent of world rivers not even reaching the ocean.
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And we need a transformation.
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Well, interestingly, and based on my work
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and others in Africa, for example,
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we've shown that even the most vulnerable small-scale rainfall farming systems,
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with innovations and supplementary irrigation
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to bridge dry spells and droughts,
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sustainable sanitation systems to close the loop on nutrients
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from toilets back to farmers' fields,
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and innovations in tillage systems,
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we can triple, quadruple, yield levels
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on current land.
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Elinor Ostrom,
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the latest Nobel laureate of economics,
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clearly shows empirically across the world
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that we can govern the commons
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if we invest in trust,
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local, action-based partnerships
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and cross-scale institutional innovations,
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where local actors,
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together, can deal with the global commons
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at a large scale.
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But even on the hard policy area we have innovations.
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We know that we have to move from our fossil dependence
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very quickly into a low-carbon economy in record time.
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And what shall we do?
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Everybody talks about carbon taxes -- it won't work -- emission schemes,
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but for example, one policy measure,
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feed-in tariffs on the energy system,
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which is already applied,
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from China doing it on offshore wind systems,
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all the way to the U.S.
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where you give the guaranteed price for investment in renewable energy,
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but you can subsidize electricity to poor people.
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You get people out of poverty.
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You solve the climate issue with regards to the energy sector,
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while at the same time, stimulating innovation --
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examples of things that can be out scaled quickly
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at the planetary level.
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So there is -- no doubt -- opportunity here,
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and we can list many, many examples
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of transformative opportunities around the planet.
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The key though in all of these,
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the red thread,
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is the shift in mindset,
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moving away from a situation where we simply are pushing ourselves
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into a dark future,
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where we instead backcast our future,
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and we say, "What is the playing field on the planet?
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What are the planetary boundaries
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within which we can safely operate?"
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and then backtrack innovations within that.
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But of course, the drama is, it clearly shows
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that incremental change is not an option.
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So, there is scientific evidence.
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They sort of say the harsh news,
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that we are facing the largest
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transformative development
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since the industrialization.
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In fact, what we have to do over the next 40 years
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17:34
is much more dramatic and more exciting
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than what we did when we moved into
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the situation we're in today.
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17:42
Now, science indicates that,
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yes, we can achieve a prosperous future
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within the safe operating space,
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if we move simultaneously,
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collaborating on a global level, from local to global scale,
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in transformative options, which build resilience on a finite planet.
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Thank you.
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(Applause)
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About this website

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