Eddie Obeng: Smart failure for a fast-changing world

Translator: Joseph Geni Reviewer: Morton Bast

Prevodilac: Aleksandar Stankovic Lektor: Ivana Korom

Over the past six months, I've spent my time

Za poslednjih šest meseci, provodio sam vreme

traveling. I think I've done 60,000 miles,

putujući. Mislim da sam prešao oko 60.000 kilometara,

but without leaving my desk.

a da se nisam pomerio od stola.

And the reason I can do that is because I'm actually two people.

Razlog zašto sam mogao da uradim to je jer sam ja u stvari dve osobe.

I look like one person but I'm two people. I'm Eddie who is here,

Izgledam kao jedna ali sam u stvari dve. Ja sam Edi koji je ovde,

and at the same time, my alter ego is a big green boxy

i u isto vreme, moj alter ego je veliki, zeleni, kockasti

avatar nicknamed Cyber Frank.

avatar sa nadimkom Cyber Frenk.

So that's what I spend my time doing. I'd like to start,

Dakle tako ja provodim svoje vreme. Voleo bih da počnem,

if it's possible, with a test, because I do business stuff,

ako je moguće, sa testom, jer se ja bavim poslovnim stvarima,

so it's important that we focus on outcomes.

dakle važno je da se fokusiramo na rezultate.

And then I struggled, because I was thinking to myself,

I u tom trenutku sam se pomučio, jer sam mislio:

"What should I talk? What should I do? It's a TED audience.

"O čemu da pričam? Šta da radim? Ovo je TED publika.

It's got to be stretching. How am I going to make — ?"

biće rastegnuto. Kako da ...?"

So I just hope I've got the level of difficulty right.

Tako da se samo nadam da sam pogodio nivo težine.

So let's just walk our way through this.

Dakle hajde da prođemo kroz ovo.

Please could you work this through with me? You can shout out the answer if you like.

Da li bi ste mi pravili društvo? Možete da vičete odgovore ako želite.

The question is, which of these horizontal lines is longer?

Pitanje je, koja je od ove dve horizontalne linije duža?

The answer is?

Odgovor je?

Audience: The same.Eddie Obeng: The same.

Publika: Iste su. Edi Obeng: Iste.

No, they're not the same. (Laughter)

Ne, nisu iste.

They're not the same. The top one is 10 percent longer than the bottom one.

Nisu iste. Gornja je 10 procenata duža od donje.

So why did you tell me they were the same? Do you remember when we were kids at school,

Dakle zasto ste mi rekli da su iste? Da li se sećate kada smo bili deca u školi,

about that big, they played the same trick on us?

otprilike ovoliki, kada su nam pokazali isti trik?

It was to teach us parallax. Do you remember?

Tada su želeli da nas nauče optičkim iluzijama, da li se sećate?

And you got, you said, "It's the same!" And you got it wrong.

I rekli ste: "Iste su!". I pogrešili ste.

You remember? And you learned the answer, and you've carried this answer in your head for 10, 20, 30, 40 years:

Sećate se? I naučili ste odgovor i nosili ste ga u svojoj glavi 10, 20, 30, 40 godina:

The answer is the same. The answer is the same. So when you're asked what the lengths are,

odgovor je "iste". Odgovor je "iste". Dakle kada vas pitaju koje su dužine,

you say they're the same, but they're not the same, because I've changed it.

vi kažete iste su, ali nisu iste, jer sam ih ja promenio.

And this is what I'm trying to explain has happened to us in the 21st century.

I to je ono što pokušavam da objasnim da nam se dešava u 21. veku.

Somebody or something has changed the rules

Neko ili nešto je promenilo pravila

about how our world works.

kojima naš svet funkcioniše.

When I'm joking, I try and explain it happened at midnight,

Kada se šalim, pokušavam da objasnim da se desilo u ponoć,

you see, while we were asleep, but it was midnight 15 years ago. Okay?

dok smo svi spavali i to je bila ponoć pre 15 godina, ok?

You didn't notice it? But basically, what they do is,

Niste primetili? Ali ono što su uradili,

they switched all the rules round, so that the way to

je da su promenili pravila, tako da je način

successfully run a business, an organization, or even a country,

za uspešno vođenje biznisa ili organizacije ili čak zemlje

has been deleted, flipped, and it's a completely new

obrisan, okrenut i kompletno nov

— you think I'm joking, don't you — there's a completely new set of rules in operation. (Laughter)

... mislite da se šalim, zar ne? Postoje potpuno nova pravila.

Did you notice that? I mean, you missed this one.

Niste primetili to? Propustili ste to.

You probably — No, you didn't. Okay. (Laughter)

Verovatno ste... Niste... ok. (Smeh)

My simple idea is that what's happened is,

Prosta ideja je da to što se dogodilo,

the real 21st century around us isn't so obvious to us,

pravi 21. vek oko nas nije nam očigledan,

so instead we spend our time responding rationally

umesto toga provodimo vreme reagujući racionalno

to a world which we understand and recognize,

na svet koji razumemo i poznajemo,

but which no longer exists.

ali koji više ne postoji.

You don't believe me, do you? Okay. (Applause)

Ne verujete mi? Ok. (Aplauz)

So let me take you on a little journey of many of the things I don't understand.

Dozvolite mi da vas povedem na malo putovanje u vezi sa jednom od stvari koju ne razumem.

If you search Amazon for the word "creativity,"

Ako potražite na Amazonu reč "kreativnost"

you'll discover something like 90,000 books.

naći ćete oko 90.000 knjiga.

If you go on Google and you look for "innovation + creativity,"

Ako odete na Google i potražite "inovacija + kreativnost",

you get 30 million hits. If you add the word "consultants," it doubles to 60 million. (Laughter)

dobićete 30 miliona stranica. Ako dodate i reč "konsultanti", duplira se na 60 miliona.

Are you with me? And yet, statistically, what you discover

Pratite me? Ali opet, statistički otkrili ste

is that about one in 100,000 ideas is found making money

da je jedna od 100.000 ideja za pravljenje novca uspešna

or delivering benefits two years after its inception.

ili daje rezultate dve godine od lansiranja.

It makes no sense. Companies make their expensive executives

To nema smisla. Kompanije teraju svoje skupo plaćene direktore

spend ages carefully preparing forecasts and budgets

da provode godine spremajući precizna predviđanja i budžete

which are obsolete or need changing before they can be published.

koji su zastareli ili bi trebalo da se menjaju pre nego što su objavljeni.

How is that possible? If you look at the visions we have,

Kako je to moguće? Ako uzmete viziju koju imamo,

the visions of how we're going to change the world,

viziju kako ćemo promeniti svet,

the key thing is implementation. We have the vision.

ključ je implementacija. Imamo viziju.

We've got to make it happen.

Samo treba da je ostvarimo.

We've spent decades professionalizing implementation.

Proveli smo decenije usavršavajući implementaciju.

People are supposed to be good at making stuff happen.

Ljudi bi trebalo da su dobri u ostvarivanju ideja.

However, if I use as an example a family of five

Ali, ako za primer uzmemo petočlanu porodicu

going on holiday, if you can imagine this,

koja putuje na odmor, ako možete da zamislite ovo,

all the way from London all the way across to Hong Kong,

iz Londona skroz do Hong Konga,

what I want you to think about is their budget is only 3,000 pounds of expenses.

razmislite o tome da je njihov budžet samo 3.000 funti.

What actually happens is, if I compare this to the average

Ono šta bi se zaista dogodilo, ako uporedimo sa prosečnim

real project, average real successful project,

projektom, prosečnim uspešnim projektom,

the family actually end up in Makassar, South Sulawesi,

porodica će završiti u Makasaru, južnom Sulaveziju,

at a cost of 4,000 pounds,

po ceni od 4.000 funti,

whilst leaving two of the children behind. (Laughter)

dok je dvoje dece ostalo u Londonu. (Smeh)

What I'm trying to explain to you is, there are things which don't make sense to us.

Ono što pokušavam da vam objasnim, postoje stvari koje nama nemaju smisla.

It gets even worse than that. Let me just walk you through this one.

Postoje i gori primeri. Pokazaću vam ovaj.

This is a quote, and I'll just pick words out of it.

Ovo je citat i ja ću ga parafrazirati.

It says -- I'll put on the voice -- "In summary, your Majesty,

On kaže - iskoristiću glas: "U suštini, vaše veličanstvo,

the failure to foresee the timing, extent and severity

neuspeh da se predvidi pravo vreme, raspon i jačina

of the crisis was due to the lack of creativity

krize je posledica nedostatka kreativnosti

and the number of bright minds," or something like that.

i broja bistrih umova" ili nešto tako.

This was a group of eminent economists apologizing to the Queen of England

Ovo je bila grupa priznatih ekonomista koji se izvinjavaju Kraljici Engleske

when she asked the question,

kada je ona pitala:

"Why did no one tell us that the crisis was coming?" (Laughter)

"Zašto nam niko nije rekao da kriza dolazi?" (Smeh)

I'll never get my knighthood. I'll never get my knighthood. (Laughter)

Nikada neću biti proglašen za viteza. (Smeh)

That's not the important point. The thing you have to remember is,

To nije važna stvar. Ono što morate da zapamtite je,

these are eminent economists, some of the smartest people

ovo su priznati ekonomisti, neki od najpametnijih ljudi

on the planet. Do you see the challenge? (Laughter)

na planeti. Vidite izazov? (Smeh)

It's scary. My friend and mentor, Tim Brown of IDEO,

Strašno je. Moj prijatelj i mentor, Tim Braun iz IDEO,

he explains that design must get big, and he's right.

je objasnio da dizajn mora postati veliki i u pravu je.

He wisely explains this to us. He says design thinking

Pametno nam je ovo opisao. Rekao je da plansko razmišljanje

must tackle big systems for the challenges we have.

mora iskoristiti velike sisteme za izazove na koje nailazimo.

He's absolutely right.

Potpuno je u pravu.

And then I ask myself, "Why was it ever small?"

I onda se zapitam: "Zašto je ikada bio mali?"

Isn't it weird? You know, if collaboration is so cool,

Zar nije čudno? Ako je saradnja tako kul,

is cross-functional working is so amazing,

ako je unakrsna funkcionalnost tako dobra,

why did we build these huge hierarchies? What's going on?

zašto smo izgradili ove ogromne hijerarhije? Šta se događa?

You see, I think what's happened, perhaps, is that

Vidite, mislim da je ono što se možda dogodilo,

we've not noticed that change I described earlier.

to da nismo primetili promene koje sam opisao ranije.

What we do know is that the world has accelerated.

Ono što znamo je da se svet ubrzao.

Cyberspace moves everything at the speed of light.

Sajber svemir pomera sve brzinom svetlosti.

Technology accelerates things exponentially.

Tehnologija ubrzava stvari eksponencijalno.

So if this is now, and that's the past,

Ako se ovo dešava sada, a to je prošlost

and we start thinking about change, you know,

i mi počinjemo da mislimo o promenama, znate,

all governments are seeking change, you're here seeking change,

sve vlade traže promene, vi ste ovde tražeći promene,

everybody's after change, it's really cool. (Laughter)

svi žele promene i to je kul. (Smeh)

So what happens is, we get this wonderful whooshing acceleration and change.

Dakle ono što se događa je da smo dobili ovo neverovatno ubrzanje i promenu.

The speed is accelerating. That's not the only thing.

I brzina se povećava. I to nije jedina stvar.

At the same time, as we've done that, we've done something really weird.

U isto vreme, dok se to događa, uradili smo nešto sasvim čudno.

We've doubled the population in 40 years,

Duplirali smo populaciju za poslednjih 40 godina

put half of them in cities, then connected them all up so they can interact.

stavili polovinu njih u gradove i onda ih povezali da mogu da sarađuju.

The density of the interaction of human beings is amazing.

Količina ljudske interakcije je neverovatna.

There are charts which show all these movements of information. That density of information is amazing.

Postoje grafikoni koji pokazuju razmenu informacija. Količina informacija je neverovatna.

And then we've done a third thing.

I onda smo uradili treću stvar.

you know, for those of you who have as an office

Znate, za one od vas koji kao kancelariju imaju

a little desk underneath the stairs, and you say, well this is my little desk under the stairs,

mali sto ispod stepenica i vi kažete: "Ovo je moj mali sto ispod stepenica",

no! You are sitting at the headquarters of a global corporation if you're connected to the Internet.

ne! Vi sedite u predstavništvu globalne korporacije ako ste povezani na internet.

What's happened is, we've changed the scale.

Ono što se dogodilo je da smo promenili razmeru.

Size and scale are no longer the same.

Veličina i razmera više nisu iste.

And then add to that, every time you tweet,

I onda dodajte na to svaki put kada napišete tvit,

over a third of your followers follow from a country

više od trećine ljudi koji vas prate nisu iz

which is not your own.

vaše zemlje.

Global is the new scale. We know that.

Globalno je nova razmera. Znamo to.

And so people say things like, "The world is now a turbulent place." Have you heard them saying things like that?

I ljudi govore stvari kao: "Svet je trenutno turbulentno mesto." Da li ste čuli da govore to?

And they use it as a metaphor. Have you come across this?

I koriste to kao metaforu. Jeste li se susreli sa tim?

And they think it's a metaphor, but this is not a metaphor.

I oni misle da je metafora, ali nije.

It's reality. As a young engineering student, I remember

To je stvarnost, kao student inženjerstva sećam se

going to a demonstration where they basically,

demonstracije gde je

the demonstrator did something quite intriguing.

profesor uradio nesto interesantno.

What he did was, he got a transparent pipe — have you seen this demonstration before? —

Uzeo je providnu cev, jeste li videli ovu demonstraciju ranije?

he attached it to a tap. So effectively what you had was,

Povezao je na slavinu, tako da bukvalno ono što ste dobili

you had a situation where — I'll try and draw the tap

je situacija gde... pokušaću da nacrtam slavinu

and the pipe, actually I'll skip the tap. The taps are hard.

i cev, u stvari preskočiću slavinu. Slavine su teške.

Okay? So I'll write the word "tap." Is that okay? It's a tap. (Laughter)

Ok? Napisaću reč "slavina". Da li je to ok? To je slavina.

Okay, so he attaches it to a transparent pipe, and he turns the water on.

Dakle povezao je providnu cev i pustio vodu.

And he says, do you notice anything? And the water is whooshing down this pipe.

Rekao je: "Da li primećujete šta se dešava?" Sva voda se sliva niz cev.

I mean, this is not exciting stuff. Are you with me?

Ovo nije uzbudljiva stvar. Da li me pratite?

So the water goes up. He turns it back down. Great.

Dakle voda teče. Potom je ugasio. Odlično.

And he says, "Anything you notice?" No. Then he sticks a needle into the pipe,

Rekao je: "Da li ste primetili bilo šta?" Ne. Potom je zabio iglu u cev

and he connects this to a container, and he fills

i povezao je na posudu koju je napunio

the container up with green ink. You with me?

zelenim mastilom. Pratite me?

So guess what happens? A thin green line comes out

Pogađate šta se dogodilo? Tanka zelena linija se pojavila

as it flows down the pipe. It's not that interesting.

kako je mastilo teklo niz cev. Nije tako interesantno.

And then he turns the water up a bit, so it starts coming back in. And nothing changes.

Onda je pojačao protok vode i ništa se nije promenilo.

So he's changing the flow of the water, but it's just a boring green line.

Dakle pojačao je protok vode, ali to je samo dosadna zelena linija.

He adds some more. He adds some more. And then something weird happens.

Pojačao je još i još. I tada se nesto čudno dogodilo.

There's this little flicker, and then as he turns it ever so slightly more,

Pojavilo se malo pomeranje, onda je povećao protok još više,

the whole of that green line disappears, and instead

cela zelena linija je nestala, umesto nje

there are these little sort of inky dust devils close to the needle.

pojavili su se mali zeleni vrtlozi u blizini igle

They're called eddies. Not me. And they're violently dispersing the ink

zovu se vrtlozi (eddies). Ne ja. I raspršuju mastilo

so that it actually gets diluted out, and the color's gone.

tako da bude rastvoreno u vodi i boja nestane.

What's happened in this world of pipe

Ono što se desilo u ovom svetu cevi

is somebody has flipped it. They've changed the rules from laminar to turbulent.

je da je neko promenio pravila sa mirnih na turbulentna.

All the rules are gone. In that environment, instantly,

Sva pravila su nestala. U toj sredini trenutno,

all the possibilities which turbulence brings are available,

sve mogućnosti koje turbulencija donosi su dostupne,

and it's not the same as laminar.

i potpuno su različite od mirnih.

And if we didn't have that green ink, you'd never notice.

I da nemamo zeleno mastilo, nikada ne biste primetili.

And I think this is our challenge, because somebody

I mislim da je upravo to naš izazov, jer je neko

has actually increased — and it's probably you guys with all your tech and stuff —

povećao - i verovatno ste to vi sa vašom tehnologijom -

the speed, the scale and the density of interaction.

brzinu, razmeru i gustinu interakcije.

Now how do we cope and deal with that?

Kako možemo da se borimo sa tim?

Well, we could just call it turbulence, or we could try and learn.

Pa možemo samo to zvati turbulencijom ili možemo da učimo iz toga.

Yes, learn, but I know you guys grew up in the days when

Da, učimo, ali znam da ste vi odrasli u ono vreme

there were actually these things called correct answers,

kada su postojale te stvari zvane tačni odgovori,

because of the answer you gave me to the horizontal line puzzle,

zbog odgovora koji ste mi dali na zagonetku o horizontalnoj liniji

and you believe it will last forever.

i vi verujete da će trajati zauvek.

So I'll put a little line up here which represents learning,

Dakle, nacrtaću linuju koja predstavlja učenje.

and that's how we used to do it. We could see things,

i kako smo to radili ranije. Mogli smo da vidimo stvari,

understand them, take the time to put them into practice.

da ih razumemo, bez žurbe ih primenimo u praksi.

Out here is the world. Now, what's happened to our pace

Ovde je svet. Sada, šta se dogodilo sa našim tempom

of learning as the world has accelerated? Well, if you work

učenja kako je svet ubrzao? Pa ako vi radite

for a corporation, you'll discover it's quite difficult to work

za korporaciju, naučićete da je teško raditi

on stuff which your boss doesn't approve of, isn't in the strategy,

na stvarima koje vaš šef ne podržava, nisu deo strategije,

and anyway, you've got to go through your monthly meetings.

i svakako, prošli ste kroz svoje mesečne sastanke.

If you work in an institution, one day you will get them to make that decision.

Ako radite u instituciji, jednog dana ćete ih naterati da dođu do odluke.

And if you work in a market where people believe in cycles,

A ako radite u tržištu u kom ljudi veruju u cikluse,

it's even funnier, because you have to wait all the way

još je smešnije, jer morate da čekate

for the cycle to fail before you go, "There's something wrong." You with me?

da taj ciklus propadne pre nego kažete: "Nešto nije u redu." Pratite me?

So it's likely that the line, in terms of learning, is pretty flat.

Dakle verovatno je da je linija, u smislu učenja, prilično ravna.

You with me? This point over here, the point at which

Pratite me? U Ovoj tački ovde, tački u kojoj

the lines cross over, the pace of change

se linije sreću, brzina promene

overtakes the pace of learning,

prevazilazi brzinu učenja,

and for me, that is what I was describing

i za mene, to je ono na šta sam mislio

when I was telling you about midnight.

kada sam vam pričao o ponoći.

So what does it do to us? Well, it completely transforms what we have to do,

Dakle kako to utiče na nas? Pa kompletno transformiše ono što moramo da uradimo,

many mistakes we make. We solve last year's problems

pravimo mnogo grešaka. Rešavamo probleme prošlih godina

without thinking about the future. If you try and think about it,

bez razmišljanja o budućnosti. Ako pokušamo da razmislimo o tome

the things you're solving now, what problems are they going to bring in the future?

problemi koje rešavamo sada, do kojih problema će oni dovesti u budućnosti?

If you haven't understood the world you're living in,

Ako niste razumeli svet u kom živite,

it's almost impossible to be absolutely certain that what you're going to deliver fits.

skoro je nemoguće biti potpuno siguran da ono što ćete uraditi odgovara problemu.

I'll give you an example, a quick one. Creativity and ideas,

Daću vam kratak primer. Kreativnost i ideje,

I mentioned that earlier. All the CEOs around me, my clients, they want innovation,

pomenuo sam ovo ranije. Svi direktori oko mene, moji klijenti žele inovaciju,

so they seek innovation. They say to people, "Take risks and be creative!"

tako da traže inovaciju. Kažu ljudima: "Rizikujte i budite kreativni!"

But unfortunately the words get transformed as they travel through the air.

Ali na žalost reči budu transformisane kako putuju.

Entering their ears, what they hear is, "Do crazy things and then I'll fire you." Why? (Laughter) Because —

Kada dođu do ljudi, ono što čuju je: "Uradi nešto ludo i otpustićemo te." Zašto? (Smeh)

Why? Because in the old world, okay, in the old world,

Zašto? Jer u starom svetu, OK, u starom svetu,

over here, getting stuff wrong was unacceptable.

ovde, činiti pogrešne stvari je neprihvatljivo.

If you got something wrong, you'd failed. How should you be treated?

Ako bi pogrešio, doživeo bi neuspeh. Kako bi trebalo da se ponašaju prema tebi?

Well, harshly, because you could have asked somebody who had experience.

Pa, grubo, jer je trebalo da pitaš nekoga ko ima iskustva.

So we learned the answer and we carried this in our heads for 20, 30 years, are you with me?

Dakle naučili smo odgovor i nosili ga u našim glavama 20, 30 godina. Pratite me?

The answer is, don't do things which are different.

Odgovor je: "Ne radi stvari koje su različite."

And then suddenly we tell them to and it doesn't work.

I onda odjedanput kažemo im da to ne radi.

You see, in reality, there are two ways you can fail in our new world.

Vidite, u stvarnosti, postoje dva načina da ne uspete u novom svetu.

One, you're doing something that you should follow a procedure to, and it's a very difficult thing,

Jedan je, radite nešto u čemu bi trebalo da pratite proceduru i to je teška stvar,

you're sloppy, you get it wrong. How should you be treated? You should probably be fired.

neuredni ste, pogrešite. Kako bi trebalo da se ophode prema vama? Verovatno bi trebalo da vas otpuste.

On the other hand, you're doing something new, no one's ever done before,

U drugu ruku, radite nešto novo, nešto što niko nije radio ranije,

you get it completely wrong. How should you be treated?

potpuno pogrešite. Kako bi trebalo da se odnose?

Well, free pizzas! You should be treated better than the people who succeed.

Pa, besplantna pica! Trebalo bi da se odnose prema vama bolje od ljudi koji su uspeli.

It's called smart failure. Why? Because you can't put it on your C.V.

To se zove pametni neuspeh. Zašto? Jer ne možete da ga stavite u CV.

So what I want to leave you, then, is with the explanation

Dakle ono sa čim želim da vas ostavim je objašnjenje

of why I actually traveled 60,000 miles from my desk.

zašto sam prešao preko 60.000 km sedeći za stolom.

When I realized the power of this new world,

Kada sam shvatio snagu novog sveta,

I quit my safe teaching job, and set up a virtual business school,

dao sam otkaz na svom poslu profesora i osnovao virtuelnu školu biznisa,

the first in the world, in order to teach people how to make this happen,

prvu u svetu, da bih naučio ljude kako da to ostvare,

and I used some of my learnings about some of the rules which I'd learned on myself.

iskoristio sam neka saznanja koja sam naučio na svojoj koži

If you're interested, worldaftermidnight.com, you'll find out more,

ako ste zainteresovani, worldaftermidnight.com, saznaćete više

but I've applied them to myself for over a decade,

i primenio sam ih na sebi protekle decenije

and I'm still here, and I still have my house, and the most important thing is,

i još uvek sam ovde i još uvek imam svoju kuću i najvažnija stvar je,

I hope I've done enough to inject a little green ink into your lives,

nadam se da sam uradio dovoljno da ubrizgam malo zelenog mastila u vaše živote,

so that when you go away and you're making your next

tako da kada odete i napravite svoju sledeću

absolutely sensible and rational decision, you'll take some time to think,

apsolutno razumnu i racionalnu odluku, odvojićete malo vremena da pomislite:

"Hmm, I wonder whether this also makes sense

"Hmm, pitam se da li ovo takođe ima smisla

in our new world after midnight." Thank you very much.

u našem novom svetu posle ponoći." Hvala vam puno.

(Applause)

(Aplauz)

Thank you, thank you. (Applause)

Hvala, hvala. (Aplauz)