Eddie Obeng: Smart failure for a fast-changing world

Translator: Joseph Geni Reviewer: Morton Bast

譯者: Geoff Chen 審譯者: Yuguo Zhang

Over the past six months, I've spent my time

過去六個月來，我大多

traveling. I think I've done 60,000 miles,

在旅行。我大概已經走了 60,000 英里

but without leaving my desk.

但從未離開我的書桌

And the reason I can do that is because I'm actually two people.

我能夠這麼做的原因是，我有兩個分身。

I look like one person but I'm two people. I'm Eddie who is here,

我看起來像一個人，但事實上我是兩個人。我是一個在這裡的 Eddie，

and at the same time, my alter ego is a big green boxy

但同時，第二個我，是個綠色的方盒，

avatar nicknamed Cyber Frank.

我是一個叫做 Cyber Frank 的阿凡達。

So that's what I spend my time doing. I'd like to start,

那就是我之前所做的事。如果可以的話，

if it's possible, with a test, because I do business stuff,

我想從一個小實驗開始，這是因為我搞的是商業，

so it's important that we focus on outcomes.

所以我們應專注於產出結果。

And then I struggled, because I was thinking to myself,

但之後我遇到了困難，因為我想:

"What should I talk? What should I do? It's a TED audience.

「我應該說什麼好? 我要做什麽啊? 那可是 TED 聽眾啊。

It's got to be stretching. How am I going to make — ?"

我一定要盡全力。到底該如何做才好?」

So I just hope I've got the level of difficulty right.

所以我僅希望我先搞定困難度。

So let's just walk our way through this.

所以讓我們透過這樣的方式。

Please could you work this through with me? You can shout out the answer if you like.

你們可以和我一起做嗎? 如果可以，你可以大聲說出來。

The question is, which of these horizontal lines is longer?

我的問題是: 這些水平線，哪一條比較長?

The answer is?

答案是?

Audience: The same.Eddie Obeng: The same.

觀眾： 相同。Eddie Obeng: 相同。

No, they're not the same. (Laughter)

不，他們不相同。（笑聲）

They're not the same. The top one is 10 percent longer than the bottom one.

他們不一樣。最上方一條比最底部的一條長 10%。

So why did you tell me they were the same? Do you remember when we were kids at school,

那為什麼你跟我說它們是相同呢？你還記得當我們小時候在學校時

about that big, they played the same trick on us?

他們和我們玩的同樣遊戲嗎？

It was to teach us parallax. Do you remember?

那遊戲是爲了教我們視差。你記得嗎？

And you got, you said, "It's the same!" And you got it wrong.

然後你瞭解了，你說: 「這是相同的！」你搞錯了。

You remember? And you learned the answer, and you've carried this answer in your head for 10, 20, 30, 40 years:

你還記得嗎? 你學到了答案，這答案在你腦海裡待了 10、20、30、40 年:

The answer is the same. The answer is the same. So when you're asked what the lengths are,

答案是相同。答案是相同。所以，當你們被問到長度多少時，

you say they're the same, but they're not the same, because I've changed it.

你們說它們等長，但它們不一樣長，因為其實我已改變它了。

And this is what I'm trying to explain has happened to us in the 21st century.

這就是我試圖解釋發生在我們在 21 世紀的事

Somebody or something has changed the rules

某人或某事物已更改了

about how our world works.

我們世界的工作法則

When I'm joking, I try and explain it happened at midnight,

當我開玩笑時，我試著解釋它是發生在午夜，

you see, while we were asleep, but it was midnight 15 years ago. Okay?

你看，它發生在我們都睡著的時候，但是卻是在 15 年前的午夜。OK?

You didn't notice it? But basically, what they do is,

你沒有注意到它嗎? 但基本上，他們做的是，

they switched all the rules round, so that the way to

他們撤換所有的規則，因此那些成功運作

successfully run a business, an organization, or even a country,

商業、 組織、或甚至一個國家的方法

has been deleted, flipped, and it's a completely new

都被刪除、翻轉了，它變成全新的了。

— you think I'm joking, don't you — there's a completely new set of rules in operation. (Laughter)

— — 你認為我開玩笑，不是嗎 — — 有一套全新的操作規則。（笑聲）

Did you notice that? I mean, you missed this one.

你沒有注意到嗎？我的意思是，你錯過了這個。

You probably — No, you didn't. Okay. (Laughter)

你可能 — — 不，你沒有。OK。（笑聲）

My simple idea is that what's happened is,

我簡單的想法是，真正所發生的是，

the real 21st century around us isn't so obvious to us,

我們真正所處的 21 世紀，事實上，對我們來說，並不那麼明顯，

so instead we spend our time responding rationally

所以即便我們理性地回應

to a world which we understand and recognize,

一個我們理解並承認的世界，

but which no longer exists.

但這樣的世界早已不存在了。

You don't believe me, do you? Okay. (Applause)

你不相信我，是嗎？好吧。（掌聲）

So let me take you on a little journey of many of the things I don't understand.

讓我帶你經歷一個小旅程，一個關於我所不理解的小旅程。

If you search Amazon for the word "creativity,"

如果你在在亞馬遜網絡書店搜索「創意」一詞

you'll discover something like 90,000 books.

你會發現有有大約九萬本書。

If you go on Google and you look for "innovation + creativity,"

如果你去 Google 搜索「創新 + 創意」

you get 30 million hits. If you add the word "consultants," it doubles to 60 million. (Laughter)

你會得到三千萬個相關網頁。如果你添加「顧問」一詞，會翻到六千萬。（笑聲）

Are you with me? And yet, statistically, what you discover

有跟上我嗎? 但，根據統計，你會發現

is that about one in 100,000 ideas is found making money

只有十萬個想法中的一個可以賺到錢，

or delivering benefits two years after its inception.

或在成立兩年後獲利。

It makes no sense. Companies make their expensive executives

它毫無意義。企業動用昂貴的經理人

spend ages carefully preparing forecasts and budgets

花一堆時間精心準備預測和預算，

which are obsolete or need changing before they can be published.

而這些預測和預算在出版前就已經過時或需要更改。

How is that possible? If you look at the visions we have,

怎麼會這樣呢? 如果你看看我們擁有的遠見，

the visions of how we're going to change the world,

看看我們想要改變世界的看法，

the key thing is implementation. We have the vision.

最關鍵的是執行力。我們有遠見，

We've got to make it happen.

我們得讓它發生。

We've spent decades professionalizing implementation.

我們花了幾十年把執行弄得專業化，

People are supposed to be good at making stuff happen.

所以人們應該擅長讓這些事發生才對，

However, if I use as an example a family of five

但，如果我用一個五口之家作為範例，

going on holiday, if you can imagine this,

這家去度假，想像一下，

all the way from London all the way across to Hong Kong,

從倫敦用所有的方式抵達香港，

what I want you to think about is their budget is only 3,000 pounds of expenses.

我要你們思考的是，他們只有三千英鎊的預算；

What actually happens is, if I compare this to the average

然而，實際發生的是，如果我把這個計劃

real project, average real successful project,

和一般來說真正成功的計劃作比較，

the family actually end up in Makassar, South Sulawesi,

這一家人，事實上，最終會去 Makassar (印尼南蘇拉威西省) 度假

at a cost of 4,000 pounds,

最後花費四千英鎊，

whilst leaving two of the children behind. (Laughter)

同時丟下兩個孩子不管。（笑聲）

What I'm trying to explain to you is, there are things which don't make sense to us.

我試圖向你解釋的是，其實，有些事不對勁。

It gets even worse than that. Let me just walk you through this one.

它甚至會更糟，讓我說說另一個:

This is a quote, and I'll just pick words out of it.

這是一段引述，我會從它裡頭挑出詞彙。

It says -- I'll put on the voice -- "In summary, your Majesty,

這是這麼說的 — — 讓我換個語氣— —「總之，女王陛下

the failure to foresee the timing, extent and severity

未能預見這場危機的時間、 範圍、和嚴重性的原因

of the crisis was due to the lack of creativity

是由於缺乏創造力

and the number of bright minds," or something like that.

和一些聰穎的頭腦」或其他什麽類似的東西。

This was a group of eminent economists apologizing to the Queen of England

這是一群知名經濟學家向英國女王的致歉詞

when she asked the question,

當她問:

"Why did no one tell us that the crisis was coming?" (Laughter)

「為什麼之前沒人告訴我們這場危機會來?」（笑聲）

I'll never get my knighthood. I'll never get my knighthood. (Laughter)

我再也得不到我的爵位了，我再也得不到我的爵位了。（笑聲）

That's not the important point. The thing you have to remember is,

這不是重點。你們要記住的是，

these are eminent economists, some of the smartest people

這些都是知名的經濟學家。全球最聰明的經濟學家。

on the planet. Do you see the challenge? (Laughter)

你們看到挑戰了嗎?（笑聲）

It's scary. My friend and mentor, Tim Brown of IDEO,

這很可怕。我的朋友和導師，IDEO 的 Tim Brown

he explains that design must get big, and he's right.

他解釋說設計要大，他是對的。

He wisely explains this to us. He says design thinking

他聰明地向我們解釋這個。他說，設計思維

must tackle big systems for the challenges we have.

必須處理大系統為我們帶來的挑戰。

He's absolutely right.

他是絕對正確的。

And then I ask myself, "Why was it ever small?"

然後我問自己:「那為什麼是以往它都是小的?」

Isn't it weird? You know, if collaboration is so cool,

這難道不奇怪嗎? 你知道，如果合作是很酷的事，

is cross-functional working is so amazing,

如果跨領域工作是很棒的事，

why did we build these huge hierarchies? What's going on?

那為什麼我們蓋了這些巨大的等級結構? 這是怎麼回事?

You see, I think what's happened, perhaps, is that

你看，我認為這或許是

we've not noticed that change I described earlier.

我們沒有注意到我之前所說的改變。

What we do know is that the world has accelerated.

我們的確知道什麼加速了世界的運轉，

Cyberspace moves everything at the speed of light.

網路空間讓一切以光速移動，

Technology accelerates things exponentially.

科技讓一切以指數的速度增長，

So if this is now, and that's the past,

因此，如果這是現在，而那是過去，

and we start thinking about change, you know,

我們會開始思考改變，你知道，

all governments are seeking change, you're here seeking change,

所有各國的政府都正在尋求改變，你們也在這裡尋求改變，

everybody's after change, it's really cool. (Laughter)

每個人都在追求改變，這真的好酷。（笑聲）

So what happens is, we get this wonderful whooshing acceleration and change.

所以情況是，我們得到這些絕妙又風馳電掣的改變，

The speed is accelerating. That's not the only thing.

速度正在加快，但這不是唯一的發生的事，

At the same time, as we've done that, we've done something really weird.

同時，就像我們已經做的，我們已做了一些很奇怪的事情。

We've doubled the population in 40 years,

我們在 40 年內使人口翻了兩倍，

put half of them in cities, then connected them all up so they can interact.

將其中一半放在城市裡，接著將他們聯繫在一起，由此一來，他們可以互動。

The density of the interaction of human beings is amazing.

人類互動的密度是很驚人的，

There are charts which show all these movements of information. That density of information is amazing.

這些圖表顯示所有這些運動的資訊，該資訊的密度是驚人的，

And then we've done a third thing.

然後我們成就了第三件事:

you know, for those of you who have as an office

你知道，對於那些已有個辦公室

a little desk underneath the stairs, and you say, well this is my little desk under the stairs,

在樓梯底有小書桌的人，你說，嗯，這是我樓梯下的小桌，

no! You are sitting at the headquarters of a global corporation if you're connected to the Internet.

不！如果你連上網，你就正坐在跨國公司的總部。

What's happened is, we've changed the scale.

原因是，我們已經改變了規模。

Size and scale are no longer the same.

大小和規模不再相同了。

And then add to that, every time you tweet,

然後，每次當你 tweet，

over a third of your followers follow from a country

有超過三分之一你的追隨者

which is not your own.

不和你是同一個國家。

Global is the new scale. We know that.

全球是新的規模，我們都知道這一點。

And so people say things like, "The world is now a turbulent place." Have you heard them saying things like that?

所以當人們說: 「世界現在是個紊亂而動盪的地方。」你真有聽到他們這樣說嗎？

And they use it as a metaphor. Have you come across this?

他們這麼說是一種比喻。你有碰過這種事嗎?

And they think it's a metaphor, but this is not a metaphor.

而且他們認為這是一個比喻，然而這卻不是一種比喻，

It's reality. As a young engineering student, I remember

它就是現實。作為一個年輕的工程學生，我記得

going to a demonstration where they basically,

我曾經參加一個教學示範，在那裡，基本上

the demonstrator did something quite intriguing.

示範者做了一件頗耐人尋味的事，

What he did was, he got a transparent pipe — have you seen this demonstration before? —

他所做的是，他得到一個透明的水管— — 你之前見過這種實地示範嗎? —

he attached it to a tap. So effectively what you had was,

他把它安裝在一個水龍頭上，所以你過去的情況是

you had a situation where — I'll try and draw the tap

你過去的情況是— — 我試著畫水龍頭和水管，

and the pipe, actually I'll skip the tap. The taps are hard.

事實上，我想跳過水龍頭。水龍頭好難。

Okay? So I'll write the word "tap." Is that okay? It's a tap. (Laughter)

好吧? 所以我寫「水龍頭」。這樣好嗎? 它是自來水。（笑聲）

Okay, so he attaches it to a transparent pipe, and he turns the water on.

好，所以他安裝上一個透明的水管，他打開水，

And he says, do you notice anything? And the water is whooshing down this pipe.

然後他說，你注意到什麼嗎? 水迅速流下這水管。

I mean, this is not exciting stuff. Are you with me?

我的意思是，這不是令人興奮的東西。你有跟上嗎?

So the water goes up. He turns it back down. Great.

於是，水會上升，他把它堵回去。很棒。

And he says, "Anything you notice?" No. Then he sticks a needle into the pipe,

他說: 「你注意到什麽了嗎？」沒有，他將一針戳近水管

and he connects this to a container, and he fills

他把這連到一個容器，接著他用綠色墨水

the container up with green ink. You with me?

填滿容器。你有跟上我嗎?

So guess what happens? A thin green line comes out

所以你猜接下來會發生什麼情況? 一條細細的綠線出來了，

as it flows down the pipe. It's not that interesting.

沿著管道流動，這不是那麼有趣，

And then he turns the water up a bit, so it starts coming back in. And nothing changes.

然後他水多調一點，於是它開始回來，並沒有任何變化。

So he's changing the flow of the water, but it's just a boring green line.

所以他改變水流，但它是只是條無聊的綠線，

He adds some more. He adds some more. And then something weird happens.

他加更多，他加更多，然後奇怪的事情發生了，

There's this little flicker, and then as he turns it ever so slightly more,

有個小小的閃爍，之後，當他再打開它多一點，

the whole of that green line disappears, and instead

那綠線全部消失了，反而

there are these little sort of inky dust devils close to the needle.

有些小小的黑塵靠近針，

They're called eddies. Not me. And they're violently dispersing the ink

它們叫做旋渦，不是我，他們正在猛烈地分散墨水，

so that it actually gets diluted out, and the color's gone.

所以，它實際上獲得稀釋了，顏色也不見了。

What's happened in this world of pipe

在這個世界中的水管中所發生的是，

is somebody has flipped it. They've changed the rules from laminar to turbulent.

有人已翻轉它了，它們已經從層流到亂流，改變了規則。

All the rules are gone. In that environment, instantly,

所有的規則都沒了。在這樣的環境下，轉瞬間，

all the possibilities which turbulence brings are available,

所有亂流帶來的可能性都存在了，

and it's not the same as laminar.

而且並不與層流相同。

And if we didn't have that green ink, you'd never notice.

如果我們沒有那個綠色的墨水，你永遠不會注意到它。

And I think this is our challenge, because somebody

我想這就是我們面臨的挑戰，因為有人

has actually increased — and it's probably you guys with all your tech and stuff —

事實上，增加了（這可能是你們這些搞科技的傢伙做的 ）

the speed, the scale and the density of interaction.

互動的速度、 規模、和密度。

Now how do we cope and deal with that?

現在我們應該如何處理它?

Well, we could just call it turbulence, or we could try and learn.

嗯，我們可以僅僅把它稱為動盪，或者，我們可以試著學習。

Yes, learn, but I know you guys grew up in the days when

是的，學習，但，我知道你們在成長時

there were actually these things called correct answers,

有一些實際上被稱為正確答案的東西，

because of the answer you gave me to the horizontal line puzzle,

因為你剛才給我的答案，

and you believe it will last forever.

你相信它永遠適用。

So I'll put a little line up here which represents learning,

所以，我在這裡拿這小線代表學習，

and that's how we used to do it. We could see things,

這是我們過去做事的方式。我們能瞭解事物，

understand them, take the time to put them into practice.

理解它們，花點時間付諸實行，

Out here is the world. Now, what's happened to our pace

在這之外是世界。現在，當世界的速率加快時，

of learning as the world has accelerated? Well, if you work

我們學習的速度發生了什麽轉變? 嗯，如果你

for a corporation, you'll discover it's quite difficult to work

為一間公司工作，你會發現，要做一件你上司不允許的事

on stuff which your boss doesn't approve of, isn't in the strategy,

是很困難的，這不是好策略，

and anyway, you've got to go through your monthly meetings.

而且不管怎麼說，你得參加每月的會議，

If you work in an institution, one day you will get them to make that decision.

如果你在一個機構裡做事，有一天，你會讓他們作出這一決定。

And if you work in a market where people believe in cycles,

如果你在一個市場裡做事，在那裡人們相信週期循環，

it's even funnier, because you have to wait all the way

這甚至更有趣，因為你必須要一直等到

for the cycle to fail before you go, "There's something wrong." You with me?

週期失敗前，你才會覺得「嘿，有些地方不對勁」你們有跟上嗎?

So it's likely that the line, in terms of learning, is pretty flat.

因此，很有可能地，學習的曲線是蠻平的。

You with me? This point over here, the point at which

你們懂嗎? 這點在這裡，該點

the lines cross over, the pace of change

跨越了改變的速度

overtakes the pace of learning,

超越學習的速度

and for me, that is what I was describing

對我來說，這就是我剛剛所描述的

when I was telling you about midnight.

關於午夜的故事。

So what does it do to us? Well, it completely transforms what we have to do,

所以，它和我們有什麽關係? 嗯，它完全撤換了我們應該要做的事、

many mistakes we make. We solve last year's problems

以及我們所犯的許多錯誤。我們解決去年的問題，

without thinking about the future. If you try and think about it,

但沒有對未來思考。試想，

the things you're solving now, what problems are they going to bring in the future?

你現在在解決的事，它在未來會帶來什麽問題?

If you haven't understood the world you're living in,

如果你還沒有理解你現在所處的世界，

it's almost impossible to be absolutely certain that what you're going to deliver fits.

你幾乎不可能提供絕對肯定的方案。

I'll give you an example, a quick one. Creativity and ideas,

我舉一個例子，一個快速的例子: 創意和點子。

I mentioned that earlier. All the CEOs around me, my clients, they want innovation,

我剛才說到，我身邊所有的企業經理人和我的客戶都想創新，

so they seek innovation. They say to people, "Take risks and be creative!"

所以他們尋求創新，他們跟人說: 「要冒險，要有創意！」

But unfortunately the words get transformed as they travel through the air.

可惜說出來後，這些詞彙的意思變了，

Entering their ears, what they hear is, "Do crazy things and then I'll fire you." Why? (Laughter) Because —

當這些語詞進到耳裡，人們聽到的是:「去做瘋狂的事，不然我開除你。」為什麼會這樣?（笑聲）因為 — —

Why? Because in the old world, okay, in the old world,

為什麼? 因為在舊的世界中，好吧，在舊的世界中，

over here, getting stuff wrong was unacceptable.

在這裡，搞錯東西是不能被接受的。

If you got something wrong, you'd failed. How should you be treated?

如果你犯錯，你就失敗了。你會被如何處置?

Well, harshly, because you could have asked somebody who had experience.

嗯，這很苛刻，因為你本來可以詢問有經驗的人，

So we learned the answer and we carried this in our heads for 20, 30 years, are you with me?

所以我們學會答案，然後這 20、30 年來我們腦袋裡硬塞著這些答案。你們懂嗎?

The answer is, don't do things which are different.

這個答案是: 不要做不尋常的事。

And then suddenly we tell them to and it doesn't work.

然後突然間我們告訴他們這已經不適用了。

You see, in reality, there are two ways you can fail in our new world.

你看，在現實中，有兩種方式，你會在我們新的世界中失敗:

One, you're doing something that you should follow a procedure to, and it's a very difficult thing,

一、 你做的是一種應當遵循某種程序的事，而它很困難，

you're sloppy, you get it wrong. How should you be treated? You should probably be fired.

你馬虎了事，你弄錯了。你會被如何處置? 你可能會被解雇。

On the other hand, you're doing something new, no one's ever done before,

另一方面，你做某些新的東西，一些從來沒人做過的事，

you get it completely wrong. How should you be treated?

然後你完全搞錯了。你應該被如何對待?

Well, free pizzas! You should be treated better than the people who succeed.

嗯，免費比薩！你應該比那些已經成功的人獲得更好的回報。

It's called smart failure. Why? Because you can't put it on your C.V.

這叫做聰明的失敗。為什麼? 因為你不能把這放在你履歷上。

So what I want to leave you, then, is with the explanation

所以，我想告訴你們的是

of why I actually traveled 60,000 miles from my desk.

解釋為什麼我從我的書桌走了 60, 000 英里長的路。

When I realized the power of this new world,

當我意識到這個新世界的力量，

I quit my safe teaching job, and set up a virtual business school,

我辭去我安穩的教學工作，然後成立一個虛擬的商學院，

the first in the world, in order to teach people how to make this happen,

它是世上第一個學院教人如何使這發生，

and I used some of my learnings about some of the rules which I'd learned on myself.

我使用了一些從自己身上學到的知識原則，

If you're interested, worldaftermidnight.com, you'll find out more,

如果你有興趣，你會在 worldaftermidnight.com （在半夜後的世界） 發掘更多。

but I've applied them to myself for over a decade,

但我應用這些原則在自己身上超過十年了，

and I'm still here, and I still have my house, and the most important thing is,

我仍然在這，我仍然保有我的房子。最重要的事是，

I hope I've done enough to inject a little green ink into your lives,

我希望為你們的生活注入一點綠色墨水

so that when you go away and you're making your next

所以，當你離開，你會在將來

absolutely sensible and rational decision, you'll take some time to think,

做出絕對合理和理智的決定，你會花一些時間去思考:

"Hmm, I wonder whether this also makes sense

「嗯，我想知道是否在午夜後的新世界，

in our new world after midnight." Thank you very much.

這一切會有意義。」謝謝。

(Applause)

（掌聲）

Thank you, thank you. (Applause)

謝謝，謝謝。（掌聲）