Eddie Obeng: Smart failure for a fast-changing world

エディー・オベン:目まぐるしく変化する世界には「賢い失敗」が必要だ

Translator: Joseph Geni Reviewer: Morton Bast

翻訳: 校正: Chiaki Takeuchi

Over the past six months, I've spent my time

ここ半年、 色々な所を訪れました

traveling. I think I've done 60,000 miles,

旅した距離は9万キロ以上

but without leaving my desk.

しかも机から一歩も離れずに

And the reason I can do that is because I'm actually two people.

実は私は二人いるのです

I look like one person but I'm two people. I'm Eddie who is here,

一人はここにいるエディー

and at the same time, my alter ego is a big green boxy

もう一人は 緑のごつい体型の

avatar nicknamed Cyber Frank.

私の分身 「サイバー・フランク」

So that's what I spend my time doing. I'd like to start,

これが旅をしていた理由です

if it's possible, with a test, because I do business stuff,

さてテストから始めましょう ビジネス専門なので

so it's important that we focus on outcomes.

結果が気になるんです

And then I struggled, because I was thinking to myself,

悩みましたよ

"What should I talk? What should I do? It's a TED audience.

TEDに来るような人たちに

It's got to be stretching. How am I going to make — ?"

何を学んでもらえるか

So I just hope I've got the level of difficulty right.

丁度良いレベルの話が できればいいのですが

So let's just walk our way through this.

さあ 行ってみましょう

Please could you work this through with me? You can shout out the answer if you like.

答えがわかったら 叫んでくださいね

The question is, which of these horizontal lines is longer?

「どっちの線が長いですか？」

The answer is?

答えは？

Audience: The same.Eddie Obeng: The same.

（聴衆）同じ （オーベン）同じ

No, they're not the same. (Laughter)

違います（笑）

They're not the same. The top one is 10 percent longer than the bottom one.

上のほうが10％長いんです

So why did you tell me they were the same? Do you remember when we were kids at school,

なぜ同じと答えたのですか? 子供の頃学校で

about that big, they played the same trick on us?

同じことを 聞かれましたよね？

It was to teach us parallax. Do you remember?

錯覚の勉強をした時です

And you got, you said, "It's the same!" And you got it wrong.

その時は「同じ」だった でも今回は違った

You remember? And you learned the answer, and you've carried this answer in your head for 10, 20, 30, 40 years:

皆さんは一度習った答えを 何十年も覚えているわけです

The answer is the same. The answer is the same. So when you're asked what the lengths are,

「長さは同じ 長さは同じ」ってね

you say they're the same, but they're not the same, because I've changed it.

だからそう答えた でも問題が変わってたんです

And this is what I'm trying to explain has happened to us in the 21st century.

この21世紀でも同様のことが 起こっています

Somebody or something has changed the rules

何者かがいつのまにか 世界のルールを変えたんです

about how our world works.

何者かがいつのまにか 世界のルールを変えたんです

When I'm joking, I try and explain it happened at midnight,

ルールが変わったのは「真夜中」

you see, while we were asleep, but it was midnight 15 years ago. Okay?

皆が寝ていた頃です 15年も前の話ですが

You didn't notice it? But basically, what they do is,

気付かなかったって？ でも事実です

they switched all the rules round, so that the way to

企業でも組織でも国でも何でも

successfully run a business, an organization, or even a country,

上手く回すための方法が まるっきり変わったんです

has been deleted, flipped, and it's a completely new

上手く回すための方法が まるっきり変わったんです

— you think I'm joking, don't you — there's a completely new set of rules in operation. (Laughter)

冗談だと思っていますね（笑） でも新しいルールに気付きましたか?

Did you notice that? I mean, you missed this one.

さっきの問題と同じですよ

You probably — No, you didn't. Okay. (Laughter)

気付かなかったね（笑）

My simple idea is that what's happened is,

僕の単純な考えは

the real 21st century around us isn't so obvious to us,

21世紀は意外と 理解しにくかった

so instead we spend our time responding rationally

だから馴染みのある昔からの 世界観で

to a world which we understand and recognize,

皆 問題に対処しています

but which no longer exists.

でも もう昔の世界じゃない

You don't believe me, do you? Okay. (Applause)

まだ疑っていますね いいでしょう（拍手）

So let me take you on a little journey of many of the things I don't understand.

じゃあ 私の数々の疑問を 披露しましょう

If you search Amazon for the word "creativity,"

アマゾンで「創造性」と検索すると 9万冊もの本がヒットします

you'll discover something like 90,000 books.

アマゾンで「創造性」と検索すると 9万冊もの本がヒットします

If you go on Google and you look for "innovation + creativity,"

グーグルで 「革新＋創造性」は

you get 30 million hits. If you add the word "consultants," it doubles to 60 million. (Laughter)

3000万件 ＋「コンサルタント」で6000万件です（笑）

Are you with me? And yet, statistically, what you discover

でも統計的に見て 発想から2年後に

is that about one in 100,000 ideas is found making money

アイデアが収益や 実益に結びつく確率は

or delivering benefits two years after its inception.

10万に１つくらいです

It makes no sense. Companies make their expensive executives

おかしいですよ 企業がお金と時間をかけて

spend ages carefully preparing forecasts and budgets

計画や準備を進めたものが

which are obsolete or need changing before they can be published.

世に出る前から 時代遅れになります

How is that possible? If you look at the visions we have,

なぜでしょう? 革新的なビジョンも

the visions of how we're going to change the world,

実行することが

the key thing is implementation. We have the vision.

鍵となるのです ビジョンは実現してこそです

We've got to make it happen.

鍵となるのです ビジョンは実現してこそです

We've spent decades professionalizing implementation.

私たちは長年 実現力を磨いてきました

People are supposed to be good at making stuff happen.

その分 上手く行きそうなものです

However, if I use as an example a family of five

でも上手くいっていない 家族旅行に例えてみましょう

going on holiday, if you can imagine this,

５人家族が旅行をするとします

all the way from London all the way across to Hong Kong,

ロンドンから香港までの長旅です

what I want you to think about is their budget is only 3,000 pounds of expenses.

しかし予算は50万円程度

What actually happens is, if I compare this to the average

これを実際にかかった費用の

real project, average real successful project,

平均相場と比較すると

the family actually end up in Makassar, South Sulawesi,

家族はインドネシアまでしか 行けません

at a cost of 4,000 pounds,

それでも60万円かかります

whilst leaving two of the children behind. (Laughter)

しかも子供２人は 置いてけぼり（笑）

What I'm trying to explain to you is, there are things which don't make sense to us.

おかしいと思いませんか？

It gets even worse than that. Let me just walk you through this one.

更にひどい例があります

This is a quote, and I'll just pick words out of it.

ここに手紙があります

It says -- I'll put on the voice -- "In summary, your Majesty,

「女王陛下 簡単にご説明しますと

the failure to foresee the timing, extent and severity

危機の深刻さが 予測できなかったのは

of the crisis was due to the lack of creativity

創造性、聡明な頭脳の 不足が理由でした」

and the number of bright minds," or something like that.

とかなんとか 書いてあります

This was a group of eminent economists apologizing to the Queen of England

これは著名な経済学者たちが 英国女王に宛てた謝罪文です

when she asked the question,

女王は学者に お聞きになりました

"Why did no one tell us that the crisis was coming?" (Laughter)

「なぜ あなた方は 危機を予測できずにいたの？」

I'll never get my knighthood. I'll never get my knighthood. (Laughter)

こんなもの真似をしていたら ナイトの称号はもらえないな（笑）

That's not the important point. The thing you have to remember is,

それはどうでも良いとして

these are eminent economists, some of the smartest people

超優秀な経済学者でも 失敗する

on the planet. Do you see the challenge? (Laughter)

難しいのが分かりますね（笑）

It's scary. My friend and mentor, Tim Brown of IDEO,

デザイン・コンサルタント会社 IDEOのティム・ブラウンは

he explains that design must get big, and he's right.

「デザインはもっと色々な 分野に広がるべきだ」

He wisely explains this to us. He says design thinking

より大きな問題に デザイン思考で 取り組むべきだと言います

must tackle big systems for the challenges we have.

より大きな問題に デザイン思考で 取り組むべきだと言います

He's absolutely right.

まさにその通りです

And then I ask myself, "Why was it ever small?"

では何故今までの思考は 小さかったのか？

Isn't it weird? You know, if collaboration is so cool,

コラボレーションは素晴らしい 部門間協力は素晴らしい

is cross-functional working is so amazing,

コラボレーションは素晴らしい 部門間協力は素晴らしい

why did we build these huge hierarchies? What's going on?

では何故ヒエラルキー制が 残ってるんでしょう

You see, I think what's happened, perhaps, is that

きっと私たちは冒頭に 述べたような

we've not noticed that change I described earlier.

変化に気付いていないのです

What we do know is that the world has accelerated.

世界は加速しています

Cyberspace moves everything at the speed of light.

インターネットが 全てを光速で動かし

Technology accelerates things exponentially.

技術が物事を 急激に加速させる

So if this is now, and that's the past,

現在はここ こちらが過去

and we start thinking about change, you know,

そして皆さんも政府も みんなが変化を求めている

all governments are seeking change, you're here seeking change,

そして皆さんも政府も みんなが変化を求めている

everybody's after change, it's really cool. (Laughter)

みんな変化を望んでいる すごいね!（笑）

So what happens is, we get this wonderful whooshing acceleration and change.

その結果 世界は 急速に加速し変化していきます

The speed is accelerating. That's not the only thing.

加速しているだけじゃありません

At the same time, as we've done that, we've done something really weird.

同時に奇妙なことが起きました

We've doubled the population in 40 years,

まず人口が 40年で２倍になりました

put half of them in cities, then connected them all up so they can interact.

その半分が都市に住み 互いに繋がっています

The density of the interaction of human beings is amazing.

情報交流の密度は 驚くばかりです

There are charts which show all these movements of information. That density of information is amazing.

情報交通を示す図の密度の濃さと 言ったら驚きです

And then we've done a third thing.

もう一つ

you know, for those of you who have as an office

あなたのオフィスが階段の下の

a little desk underneath the stairs, and you say, well this is my little desk under the stairs,

小さなデスクだったとしても インターネットがあれば

no! You are sitting at the headquarters of a global corporation if you're connected to the Internet.

そこはグローバル企業の 本社なのです

What's happened is, we've changed the scale.

スケールが変わったんです

Size and scale are no longer the same.

サイズとスケールはもう同じじゃない

And then add to that, every time you tweet,

ツイッターのフォロワーだって

over a third of your followers follow from a country

３分の１は国外の人です

which is not your own.

３分の１は国外の人です

Global is the new scale. We know that.

新しいスケールはグローバルです

And so people say things like, "The world is now a turbulent place." Have you heard them saying things like that?

「激動の時代」とかなんとか 言われるわけです

And they use it as a metaphor. Have you come across this?

比喩のように使われていますよね？ でも実際に

And they think it's a metaphor, but this is not a metaphor.

激動しているのです

It's reality. As a young engineering student, I remember

私が大学の工学部にいた頃

going to a demonstration where they basically,

講義で非常に面白い 実験デモが行われました

the demonstrator did something quite intriguing.

講義で非常に面白い 実験デモが行われました

What he did was, he got a transparent pipe — have you seen this demonstration before? —

講師は透明なパイプを取り出し

he attached it to a tap. So effectively what you had was,

水道の蛇口にとりつけました

you had a situation where — I'll try and draw the tap

絵にしてみましょう

and the pipe, actually I'll skip the tap. The taps are hard.

蛇口は描けないから 「蛇口」でいいね？（笑）

Okay? So I'll write the word "tap." Is that okay? It's a tap. (Laughter)

蛇口は描けないから 「蛇口」でいいね？（笑）

Okay, so he attaches it to a transparent pipe, and he turns the water on.

蛇口を開けるとパイプに 水が流れ始めます

And he says, do you notice anything? And the water is whooshing down this pipe.

彼は言うわけです 「何か気付いたかい？」

I mean, this is not exciting stuff. Are you with me?

何も面白くないですよね

So the water goes up. He turns it back down. Great.

水が貯まったところで 水量を減らしました

And he says, "Anything you notice?" No. Then he sticks a needle into the pipe,

「何か気付いたかい？」 答えはノーです すると彼は針をパイプに突き刺して

and he connects this to a container, and he fills

「何か気付いたかい？」 答えはノーです すると彼は針をパイプに突き刺して

the container up with green ink. You with me?

針から緑のインクを 少しずつ垂らし始めました

So guess what happens? A thin green line comes out

すると 緑の細い線が 流れ始めました

as it flows down the pipe. It's not that interesting.

でも大して面白くありません

And then he turns the water up a bit, so it starts coming back in. And nothing changes.

水の量を少し増やしても 何の変化もありません

So he's changing the flow of the water, but it's just a boring green line.

流水量が変わっても 緑の線はそのままです

He adds some more. He adds some more. And then something weird happens.

彼はどんどん蛇口を 緩めていきました

There's this little flicker, and then as he turns it ever so slightly more,

すると突然 緑の線がユラッと動き

the whole of that green line disappears, and instead

蛇口をかすかに緩めると 線が一瞬にして消え

there are these little sort of inky dust devils close to the needle.

針の周りに緑のもやもやが残り

They're called eddies. Not me. And they're violently dispersing the ink

インクは散っていきました

so that it actually gets diluted out, and the color's gone.

色が薄くなって 最後には緑が消えました

What's happened in this world of pipe

パイプの中で起こったのは

is somebody has flipped it. They've changed the rules from laminar to turbulent.

ルールの変化です 誰かが流れを乱した結果

All the rules are gone. In that environment, instantly,

元のルールは 全て一瞬にして消え

all the possibilities which turbulence brings are available,

乱流による あらゆる可能性が生まれました

and it's not the same as laminar.

状況が完全に変わったのです

And if we didn't have that green ink, you'd never notice.

でも緑のインクがなければ 変化には気付けません

And I think this is our challenge, because somebody

これが私たちの課題です

has actually increased — and it's probably you guys with all your tech and stuff —

私たちの世界でも 技術の進歩でスピードやスケール

the speed, the scale and the density of interaction.

繋がりの密度が 増したからです

Now how do we cope and deal with that?

この変化にどう対応すれば いいんでしょう？

Well, we could just call it turbulence, or we could try and learn.

「激動」と名前をつけても良し 挑戦して学ぶも良しです

Yes, learn, but I know you guys grew up in the days when

ただ私たちが 今まで育ってきたのは

there were actually these things called correct answers,

「正しい答え」のある世界です

because of the answer you gave me to the horizontal line puzzle,

最初のクイズの 解答のように

and you believe it will last forever.

それが永遠に続くと 信じてきました

So I'll put a little line up here which represents learning,

この線は学習を表しています

and that's how we used to do it. We could see things,

今までの私たちは ものを見て 理解し その後じっくり実行してきました

understand them, take the time to put them into practice.

今までの私たちは ものを見て 理解し その後じっくり実行してきました

Out here is the world. Now, what's happened to our pace

この部分を私たちの 住む世界とします

of learning as the world has accelerated? Well, if you work

世界が加速的に変わりましたが 学習のペースはどうでしょう

for a corporation, you'll discover it's quite difficult to work

会社で働いていると 上司の意向に沿わない

on stuff which your boss doesn't approve of, isn't in the strategy,

計画外のことなど できません

and anyway, you've got to go through your monthly meetings.

でも月例会議などの場で

If you work in an institution, one day you will get them to make that decision.

いつか上司を説得することが できるかもしれません

And if you work in a market where people believe in cycles,

でも好不調の波がある 市場だったら

it's even funnier, because you have to wait all the way

ひどいことになります

for the cycle to fail before you go, "There's something wrong." You with me?

かなり状況が悪くなるまで 何かがおかしいと気づきません

So it's likely that the line, in terms of learning, is pretty flat.

つまり学習のペースは この平らな線 とても遅くなります

You with me? This point over here, the point at which

そして２つの線が 交差するポイントで

the lines cross over, the pace of change

そして２つの線が 交差するポイントで

overtakes the pace of learning,

世界があなたを追い抜きます

and for me, that is what I was describing

その瞬間を

when I was telling you about midnight.

私は「真夜中」と 呼んでいるのです

So what does it do to us? Well, it completely transforms what we have to do,

それがどう私たちに 関係するのでしょうか？

many mistakes we make. We solve last year's problems

私たちのなすべきことは すっかり変わったのです

without thinking about the future. If you try and think about it,

未来のことを考えずに 今の問題を解決しても仕方ありません

the things you're solving now, what problems are they going to bring in the future?

未来のことを考えずに 今の問題を解決しても仕方ありません

If you haven't understood the world you're living in,

この世界を正しく 理解しなければ

it's almost impossible to be absolutely certain that what you're going to deliver fits.

やる事が将来役に立つかなんて 確信が持てません

I'll give you an example, a quick one. Creativity and ideas,

ひとつ例を挙げましょう

I mentioned that earlier. All the CEOs around me, my clients, they want innovation,

私に相談に来る 会社のトップは 革新を求めています

so they seek innovation. They say to people, "Take risks and be creative!"

部下に言うわけです 「リスクを取れ 創造しろ！」

But unfortunately the words get transformed as they travel through the air.

でも不幸なことに 部下には違って聞こえるんです

Entering their ears, what they hear is, "Do crazy things and then I'll fire you." Why? (Laughter) Because —

「変なことをしてみろ クビだぞ」ってね（笑）

Why? Because in the old world, okay, in the old world,

なぜでしょう？ なぜなら古い世界では

over here, getting stuff wrong was unacceptable.

間違いは許されなかったからです

If you got something wrong, you'd failed. How should you be treated?

一度間違ったらおしまいです

Well, harshly, because you could have asked somebody who had experience.

経験者の知恵を借りるのが 善だったのです

So we learned the answer and we carried this in our heads for 20, 30 years, are you with me?

そしてその教えを 20年30年と大事に守ってきた

The answer is, don't do things which are different.

「変わったことをしてはならない」

And then suddenly we tell them to and it doesn't work.

突然 命令を変えても 上手く行きません

You see, in reality, there are two ways you can fail in our new world.

新しい世界では ２パターンの失敗がありえます

One, you're doing something that you should follow a procedure to, and it's a very difficult thing,

その一 やり方が 決まっているものの場合

you're sloppy, you get it wrong. How should you be treated? You should probably be fired.

いい加減にやって 失敗したら？ 結果はクビです

On the other hand, you're doing something new, no one's ever done before,

その二 全く新しいことに挑戦して

you get it completely wrong. How should you be treated?

失敗した その場合は?

Well, free pizzas! You should be treated better than the people who succeed.

ピザでお祝いです! 成功者より評価されるべきです

It's called smart failure. Why? Because you can't put it on your C.V.

これは「賢い失敗」です 成功と違い 履歴書には書けませんから

So what I want to leave you, then, is with the explanation

最後に私がどうして

of why I actually traveled 60,000 miles from my desk.

９万キロに及ぶ旅をしたか お話します

When I realized the power of this new world,

私は新しい世界に気付いたとき

I quit my safe teaching job, and set up a virtual business school,

安定した教職を辞め ネット上世界初の

the first in the world, in order to teach people how to make this happen,

ビジネススクールを創りました

and I used some of my learnings about some of the rules which I'd learned on myself.

どうすれば 新しいことができるか 他の人にも教えています

If you're interested, worldaftermidnight.com, you'll find out more,

興味があれば worldaftermidnight.comへどうぞ

but I've applied them to myself for over a decade,

私自身 この新しいやり方で ここ十年やってきました

and I'm still here, and I still have my house, and the most important thing is,

ご覧の通り 健在です 家も まだきちんとあります

I hope I've done enough to inject a little green ink into your lives,

今日は 皆さんの人生に 緑のインクを 少しでも注入できた事を願っています

so that when you go away and you're making your next

今度重要な決断を下すときに 考えてみてください

absolutely sensible and rational decision, you'll take some time to think,

今度重要な決断を下すときに 考えてみてください

"Hmm, I wonder whether this also makes sense

「 真夜中過ぎ」の 新しい世界でも

in our new world after midnight." Thank you very much.

やろうとしている事の 意味があるのかどうか

(Applause)

（拍手）

Thank you, thank you. (Applause)

ありがとう（拍手）