Eddie Obeng: Smart failure for a fast-changing world

Translator: Joseph Geni Reviewer: Morton Bast

翻译人员: ning yang 校对人员: James Yu

Over the past six months, I've spent my time

在过去的六个月的时间里，我一直把时间花在

traveling. I think I've done 60,000 miles,

旅行上。我想我大概旅行了6万英里，

but without leaving my desk.

但我并没有离开自己的桌子。

And the reason I can do that is because I'm actually two people.

我能这么做是因为我其实是两个人。

I look like one person but I'm two people. I'm Eddie who is here,

我看起来是一个人但我其实是两个人。此时此地我是艾迪，

and at the same time, my alter ego is a big green boxy

与此同时，我的另一面是一个四四方方的

avatar nicknamed Cyber Frank.

虚拟角色昵称是赛博弗兰克。

So that's what I spend my time doing. I'd like to start,

所以那就是我花时间正在做的事。我希望现在，

if it's possible, with a test, because I do business stuff,

如果可能的话，做一个小测试，因为我的工作就是与商业有关，

so it's important that we focus on outcomes.

所以我们关注结果这对我们非常重要。

And then I struggled, because I was thinking to myself,

然而随后我却很纠结，因为我自己考虑了下，

"What should I talk? What should I do? It's a TED audience.

“我该怎么说呢?我该怎么做呢？这可是一场TED的演讲啊。

It's got to be stretching. How am I going to make — ?"

压力好大。我要怎么把它做好呢？“

So I just hope I've got the level of difficulty right.

所以我只希望它的难度比较适中。

So let's just walk our way through this.

所以让我们现在开始吧

Please could you work this through with me? You can shout out the answer if you like.

拜托大家和我一起考虑这个问题好吗？如果你愿意的话，你也可以把答案喊出来。

The question is, which of these horizontal lines is longer?

问题是这样的，哪条水平线更长一些呢？

The answer is?

答案是？

Audience: The same.Eddie Obeng: The same.

听众：一样长。 艾迪奥本格：一样长。

No, they're not the same. (Laughter)

错，他们不是一样长。

They're not the same. The top one is 10 percent longer than the bottom one.

他们不一样。上面的那条比下面的长10%。

So why did you tell me they were the same? Do you remember when we were kids at school,

所以为什么你们告诉我他们一样长呢？你们还记得小时候在学校，

about that big, they played the same trick on us?

当你才这么高的时候，老师也曾跟我们玩过一样的小把戏吗？

It was to teach us parallax. Do you remember?

目的是为了教我们什么是视差效应。你们还记得吗?

And you got, you said, "It's the same!" And you got it wrong.

你们曾碰到过，你们回答，“一样长！”你们答错了。

You remember? And you learned the answer, and you've carried this answer in your head for 10, 20, 30, 40 years:

想起来了？你们那时候知道了答案，记在脑海中，10年，20年，30年，40年。

The answer is the same. The answer is the same. So when you're asked what the lengths are,

答案就是一样长。答案就是一样长。所以当你们被问起哪个比较长，

you say they're the same, but they're not the same, because I've changed it.

你们会说一样长，但是它们其实不一样长，因为我做了手脚。

And this is what I'm trying to explain has happened to us in the 21st century.

这就是我现在想要为大家解释的，在眼下21世纪正在我们身上发生的事情。

Somebody or something has changed the rules

不知不觉间

about how our world works.

这个世界运行的规律已经改变。

When I'm joking, I try and explain it happened at midnight,

我有时会开玩笑地跟大家解释说，这些改变就是在我们酣睡的时候发生的

you see, while we were asleep, but it was midnight 15 years ago. Okay?

你们明白了，15年前的午夜，我们沉醉在梦乡之时，改变来了。。。

You didn't notice it? But basically, what they do is,

你们当时没注意到？但是实际上，

they switched all the rules round, so that the way to

他们转变了我们周围的所有规则，不管是

successfully run a business, an organization, or even a country,

成功运作一笔生意，或是成功管理一个组织，甚至是成功领导一个国家，

has been deleted, flipped, and it's a completely new

旧的规则都被删除并且颠覆了，于是我们有了全新的规则

— you think I'm joking, don't you — there's a completely new set of rules in operation. (Laughter)

——你一定觉得我在忽悠人，是吗——一套全新的运作规则。

Did you notice that? I mean, you missed this one.

你当时没注意到？我的意思是你错过了它。

You probably — No, you didn't. Okay. (Laughter)

你很可能——不，你就是没注意到好吗。（笑声）

My simple idea is that what's happened is,

简单的说我认为事情是这样的，

the real 21st century around us isn't so obvious to us,

发生在我们身边的21世纪的真相并不是那么的容易看出来，

so instead we spend our time responding rationally

所以与其花时间去认真应付

to a world which we understand and recognize,

一个我们曾经理解和熟悉的世界，

but which no longer exists.

但是却已经不存在。

You don't believe me, do you? Okay. (Applause)

你其实不相信我，不是吗？好吧。（喝彩）

So let me take you on a little journey of many of the things I don't understand.

那么让我带你开始一个短小精悍的旅程满是我不理解的事。

If you search Amazon for the word "creativity,"

如果你在亚马逊上搜索“创新,"

you'll discover something like 90,000 books.

你将发现至少9万本与此有关的书籍。

If you go on Google and you look for "innovation + creativity,"

如果你谷歌搜索“改革+创新,"

you get 30 million hits. If you add the word "consultants," it doubles to 60 million. (Laughter)

你会搜到3千万个链接。如果你再多加一个关键词“顾问，”链接数直接加倍变成6千万。

Are you with me? And yet, statistically, what you discover

你还在听我说吗？于是乎，从数据上，你看出些什么端倪了吗

is that about one in 100,000 ideas is found making money

恐怕只有十万分之一的点子能帮你挣到钱

or delivering benefits two years after its inception.

或者在下个两年内为你带来收益。

It makes no sense. Companies make their expensive executives

所以它们没有任何意义。无数身价不菲的企业高管

spend ages carefully preparing forecasts and budgets

经年累月小心翼翼的准备那些市场预测与预算

which are obsolete or need changing before they can be published.

但是还不等完成就已过时和有待改进了。

How is that possible? If you look at the visions we have,

怎么会这样呢？想想我们自己的价值观吧，

the visions of how we're going to change the world,

想想我们想如何改变这个世界，

the key thing is implementation. We have the vision.

最核心的观点就是实施。我们有个想法，

We've got to make it happen.

我们就要努力实现它。

We've spent decades professionalizing implementation.

我们花了数十年去研究如何把理念变为现实。

People are supposed to be good at making stuff happen.

理论上说我们应该很擅长创造才对。

However, if I use as an example a family of five

然而，如果我以一个五口之家做例子

going on holiday, if you can imagine this,

准备去旅行，想象一下，

all the way from London all the way across to Hong Kong,

从伦敦出发目标是香港，

what I want you to think about is their budget is only 3,000 pounds of expenses.

加入他们的预算只有3000英镑。

What actually happens is, if I compare this to the average

现实就是，如果比较一下成功案例的平均花销

real project, average real successful project,

真正能实现的成功案例，

the family actually end up in Makassar, South Sulawesi,

这家人最多能到望加锡，南苏拉威西，

at a cost of 4,000 pounds,

花掉4千英磅，

whilst leaving two of the children behind. (Laughter)

同时还得把俩孩子丢家里。

What I'm trying to explain to you is, there are things which don't make sense to us.

通过这个案例我希望告诉大家的是，很多事情对我们没有任何意义。

It gets even worse than that. Let me just walk you through this one.

有时会更糟糕。所以这个案例就到此为止吧。

This is a quote, and I'll just pick words out of it.

这里有断摘要，我只挑些重点。

It says -- I'll put on the voice -- "In summary, your Majesty,

它说--我会帮它配音--“总体来说，女王陛下，

the failure to foresee the timing, extent and severity

之所以没能预测到本次危机的时间，范围和严重性

of the crisis was due to the lack of creativity

是因为缺乏创造力

and the number of bright minds," or something like that.

和一些聪明的头脑，”或者类似的事情。

This was a group of eminent economists apologizing to the Queen of England

这封给英女王的道歉信，出自一个由杰出经济学家们组成的团体

when she asked the question,

女王问了如下的问题，

"Why did no one tell us that the crisis was coming?" (Laughter)

“为什么没人提醒我们危机要来了？”（笑声）

I'll never get my knighthood. I'll never get my knighthood. (Laughter)

我永远也不会得到爵位了。我没戏了。（笑声）

That's not the important point. The thing you have to remember is,

不过这事无关紧要。我想让大家记住的是

these are eminent economists, some of the smartest people

这些杰出的经济学家们，他们可是我们这个星球上

on the planet. Do you see the challenge? (Laughter)

最聪明的人啊。你是不是觉得有点不妙了？（笑声）

It's scary. My friend and mentor, Tim Brown of IDEO,

太可怕了。我的朋友兼导师，IDEO的蒂姆布朗，

he explains that design must get big, and he's right.

他觉得好的设计要从大处着手，他是对的。

He wisely explains this to us. He says design thinking

他非常巧妙的把这个理念解释给了我。他认为设计思维

must tackle big systems for the challenges we have.

必须从宏观世界的角度去考虑我们的设计目标。

He's absolutely right.

他很显然是对的。

And then I ask myself, "Why was it ever small?"

于是我问自己，“为什么以前的设计总是从小处着手呢？”

Isn't it weird? You know, if collaboration is so cool,

这不奇怪吗？你们知道，既然协作这么迷人，

is cross-functional working is so amazing,

既然跨职能合作这么好用，

why did we build these huge hierarchies? What's going on?

为什么我们创造出了眼下这个巨大的层级制度呢？我们出了什么问题？

You see, I think what's happened, perhaps, is that

你们看，我觉得问题就处在，也许，就是

we've not noticed that change I described earlier.

我们没有察觉到的早先我提到的改变。

What we do know is that the world has accelerated.

有一点可以肯定，世界正在加速中。

Cyberspace moves everything at the speed of light.

互联网把所有的事情都变成了光速。

Technology accelerates things exponentially.

科技让我们的世界以指数级的加速度加速前进。

So if this is now, and that's the past,

所以打这一刻起，我们刚谈到的都已是历史了，

and we start thinking about change, you know,

现在我们开始考虑改变了，你们都知道，

all governments are seeking change, you're here seeking change,

所有的政府都在求新求变，你们也是为此而来，

everybody's after change, it's really cool. (Laughter)

所有人都追求变化，这真是太令人着迷了。（笑声）

So what happens is, we get this wonderful whooshing acceleration and change.

眼下，世界正如火箭班呼啸加速。

The speed is accelerating. That's not the only thing.

不停的加速。还不止如此。

At the same time, as we've done that, we've done something really weird.

与此同时，除了改变世界，我们还做了些非常奇怪的事情。

We've doubled the population in 40 years,

我们的人口在四十年间增加了一倍，

put half of them in cities, then connected them all up so they can interact.

一半的新增人口生活在城市里，所有人都能彼此互动彼此交流，

The density of the interaction of human beings is amazing.

交流和互动之频繁令人震惊。

There are charts which show all these movements of information. That density of information is amazing.

很多相关的数据都证明了这种信息流动的存在。信息的密度大的惊人。

And then we've done a third thing.

于是我们还做了第三件事。

you know, for those of you who have as an office

你们一定都懂，只要你们在办公室里工作过

a little desk underneath the stairs, and you say, well this is my little desk under the stairs,

楼梯间角落里那张小书桌，你们一定会觉得，好吧这就是我那张角落里的小桌子，

no! You are sitting at the headquarters of a global corporation if you're connected to the Internet.

错了！你正坐在一家国际企业的总部中，因为你可以上网。

What's happened is, we've changed the scale.

之所以这么说是因为，我们衡量事物的标准变了。

Size and scale are no longer the same.

大小和规模的含义和从前是天壤之别了。

And then add to that, every time you tweet,

再想想这个，每次你发推特（微博），

over a third of your followers follow from a country

超过三分之一的听众

which is not your own.

来自异国他乡。

Global is the new scale. We know that.

世界范围才是我们衡量的标准。我们都知道。

And so people say things like, "The world is now a turbulent place." Have you heard them saying things like that?

于是乎有人就会说，“世界就像湍急的水流一样。”你们八成都听人说过类似的话吧？

And they use it as a metaphor. Have you come across this?

他们只是打个比方。你们遇到过没？

And they think it's a metaphor, but this is not a metaphor.

他们觉得自己实在打比方，但其实不然。

It's reality. As a young engineering student, I remember

现实就是如此。我年轻的时候曾学过工程学，我记得有次

going to a demonstration where they basically,

去参观一个作品展示会 基本上，

the demonstrator did something quite intriguing.

作者使用了一些非常耐人寻味的手法。

What he did was, he got a transparent pipe — have you seen this demonstration before? —

他是这么做的，首先准备一条透明的管子——你们以前见看过类似的没有？——

he attached it to a tap. So effectively what you had was,

管子连着水龙头。随后你就会看到，

you had a situation where — I'll try and draw the tap

你们马上就会看到——我会尽量把水龙头画出来

and the pipe, actually I'll skip the tap. The taps are hard.

当然包括管子，事实上我会略过水龙头。很难画出来。

Okay? So I'll write the word "tap." Is that okay? It's a tap. (Laughter)

好吧？所以我写个单词“水龙头。”这样可以吧？就当是个是龙头了。（笑声）

Okay, so he attaches it to a transparent pipe, and he turns the water on.

好的，水龙头接上一个透明的管子，随后打开水龙头。。

And he says, do you notice anything? And the water is whooshing down this pipe.

随后他说，你们发现什么有意思的东西没？水流嗖嗖的穿过管子。

I mean, this is not exciting stuff. Are you with me?

我知道，这一点也不好玩。你们还在听吗？

So the water goes up. He turns it back down. Great.

所以水继续流。他关上龙头。终于解脱了。

And he says, "Anything you notice?" No. Then he sticks a needle into the pipe,

然后他又问道，“注意到什么了吗？” 没有。然后他用针头刺进了管子里，

and he connects this to a container, and he fills

并且用把管子和一个匣子连接在一起，在匣子里

the container up with green ink. You with me?

装满绿色的墨水。你还在听吗？

So guess what happens? A thin green line comes out

猜猜发生了什么？一条细细的绿线出现了

as it flows down the pipe. It's not that interesting.

随着绿线流过管子。这并不好玩。

And then he turns the water up a bit, so it starts coming back in. And nothing changes.

于是作者把水龙头开大了一点点，绿线还是在那。一点变化也没有。

So he's changing the flow of the water, but it's just a boring green line.

随后他开始不停的捣鼓水龙头，那条无聊的绿线还是没有任何变化。

He adds some more. He adds some more. And then something weird happens.

水流越来越大。越来越急。不可思议的事情发生了。

There's this little flicker, and then as he turns it ever so slightly more,

绿线开始有些时隐时现，然后随着水流的持续增大，

the whole of that green line disappears, and instead

绿线彻底消失了，与此同时

there are these little sort of inky dust devils close to the needle.

在针头附近出现了一些小小的被绿色墨水浸透的漩涡。

They're called eddies. Not me. And they're violently dispersing the ink

他们被命名为艾迪。不是我哦。这些漩涡粗暴的把墨水打碎甩出去

so that it actually gets diluted out, and the color's gone.

因此绿色墨水渐渐被稀释掉，色彩消失了。

What's happened in this world of pipe

管子里发生的事情真是因为

is somebody has flipped it. They've changed the rules from laminar to turbulent.

有人颠覆了它的世界。把平静的水流变成了汹涌的急流。

All the rules are gone. In that environment, instantly,

所有的就规则都消失了。在充满急流管子里，一瞬间，

all the possibilities which turbulence brings are available,

急流带来了无限的可能性，

and it's not the same as laminar.

与以前完全不同。

And if we didn't have that green ink, you'd never notice.

如果不是这些伟大的墨水，你们永远也不会发现注意到这些变化。

And I think this is our challenge, because somebody

这对我们来说是个挑战，因为实际上

has actually increased — and it's probably you guys with all your tech and stuff —

有人——那个人很可能就是你们自己，你们的知识或者设备——

the speed, the scale and the density of interaction.

把世界的节奏，衡量标准和交流的密度都改变了。

Now how do we cope and deal with that?

现在我们该怎么应对这一切呢？

Well, we could just call it turbulence, or we could try and learn.

好吧，我们可以打打酱油，或者努力去尝试理解和学习它。

Yes, learn, but I know you guys grew up in the days when

不错，学习，但是我知道在你们成长的年代里

there were actually these things called correct answers,

有种东西叫做正确答案，

because of the answer you gave me to the horizontal line puzzle,

因为它的存在，你们才会答错我的水平线测试，

and you believe it will last forever.

你们觉得它永远是对的。

So I'll put a little line up here which represents learning,

所以我画一条线在这上边代表着学习，

and that's how we used to do it. We could see things,

这是我们以前对待学习的方法。通过学习我们记住并

understand them, take the time to put them into practice.

理解我们看到的一切，随后再花时间付诸行动。

Out here is the world. Now, what's happened to our pace

这里就是我们的世界。现在，我们是的学习进度是怎么的

of learning as the world has accelerated? Well, if you work

伴随着不停加速的世界？好吧，如果你

for a corporation, you'll discover it's quite difficult to work

为一家企业工作，你会发现你几乎是寸步难行如果

on stuff which your boss doesn't approve of, isn't in the strategy,

没有老板的批准，不是因为公司策略或者其他的任何原因，

and anyway, you've got to go through your monthly meetings.

你连每月的例会都没法通过。

If you work in an institution, one day you will get them to make that decision.

如果你在非商业机构里工作，总有一天你会说服你的领导批准你。

And if you work in a market where people believe in cycles,

如果你身在所谓的遵从市场规律的金融行业，

it's even funnier, because you have to wait all the way

那就更有趣了，因为你要一直等到

for the cycle to fail before you go, "There's something wrong." You with me?

市场最低迷的时候才能买入，“这有点落井下石啊。”

So it's likely that the line, in terms of learning, is pretty flat.

所以这就像是那条线，代表学习的那条线，非常的平坦。

You with me? This point over here, the point at which

你们还在听吗？这点在这，

the lines cross over, the pace of change

两条线的交叉点，变化的幅度

overtakes the pace of learning,

打败了学习的幅度，

and for me, that is what I was describing

对于我来说，那就是我想要描述的

when I was telling you about midnight.

我早前给大家提到的变化发生的时刻，

So what does it do to us? Well, it completely transforms what we have to do,

所以它到底对我们做了什么呢？这样说吧，它彻底的改变了我们的行为方式，

many mistakes we make. We solve last year's problems

我们犯了很多错。我们纠正去年的错误

without thinking about the future. If you try and think about it,

但却完全不考虑以后的问题。如果你们试着去考虑一下将来，

the things you're solving now, what problems are they going to bring in the future?

眼下正在处理的问题，他们将来会出什么问题呢？

If you haven't understood the world you're living in,

如果你还是没能理解眼下的世界，

it's almost impossible to be absolutely certain that what you're going to deliver fits.

你几乎不可能确定自己怎么做才合适。

I'll give you an example, a quick one. Creativity and ideas,

我想举个例子，简短的。创新和思想

I mentioned that earlier. All the CEOs around me, my clients, they want innovation,

我早前跟大家提过。我的顾客们，那些首席执行官们，他们都想要新东西，

so they seek innovation. They say to people, "Take risks and be creative!"

所以他们最寻创新。他们都会跟员工说，“不要怕风险要敢于创新！”

But unfortunately the words get transformed as they travel through the air.

但不幸的是这些话到了员工的耳朵里确是截然不同的意思。

Entering their ears, what they hear is, "Do crazy things and then I'll fire you." Why? (Laughter) Because —

员工听到的是，“谁要是敢乱来我就炒了他。”为什么会这样？（笑声）因为——

Why? Because in the old world, okay, in the old world,

为什么？因为在旧的世界里，好吧，在曾经的世界里，

over here, getting stuff wrong was unacceptable.

这里，做错事是不可接受的。

If you got something wrong, you'd failed. How should you be treated?

如果你犯了错，你失败了。什么后果呢？

Well, harshly, because you could have asked somebody who had experience.

好吧，后果很严重，因为你本可以求助有经验的前辈。

So we learned the answer and we carried this in our heads for 20, 30 years, are you with me?

所以我们学到了答案并且一直保存在脑袋里超过20,30年，你们还在听吗？

The answer is, don't do things which are different.

答案就是，不要做和别人不一样的事情。

And then suddenly we tell them to and it doesn't work.

现在突然老板告诉他们放手去做，但是没人会当真。

You see, in reality, there are two ways you can fail in our new world.

你们明白了吧，在新世界中有两种方式会导致你失败。

One, you're doing something that you should follow a procedure to, and it's a very difficult thing,

一，你的工作就是照着章程一步一步来，并且这是一份很困难的工作，

you're sloppy, you get it wrong. How should you be treated? You should probably be fired.

你只是在敷衍，你犯了错。老板会怎么对你？你很肯能被炒鱿鱼。

On the other hand, you're doing something new, no one's ever done before,

另一种情况，你做了从来没人做过的事情，

you get it completely wrong. How should you be treated?

你彻底的失败了。你老板会怎么对你？

Well, free pizzas! You should be treated better than the people who succeed.

好吧，免费的午餐！你比那些成功者更值得重视。

It's called smart failure. Why? Because you can't put it on your C.V.

这就是聪明的失败者。为什么这么说？因为你不能把它放在简历上。

So what I want to leave you, then, is with the explanation

所以今天我想告诉大家的东西解释了

of why I actually traveled 60,000 miles from my desk.

为什么我旅行了6,000英里。

When I realized the power of this new world,

当我意识到蕴藏在这个崭新世界中的能量，

I quit my safe teaching job, and set up a virtual business school,

我辞掉了稳定的教育工作，并且创建了一个虚拟商业学校，

the first in the world, in order to teach people how to make this happen,

全球的第一家，为了帮助大家实现自己的商业目标而存在，

and I used some of my learnings about some of the rules which I'd learned on myself.

并且我使用了一些自己琢磨出来的关于新世界的规则。

If you're interested, worldaftermidnight.com, you'll find out more,

如果你们感兴趣，worldaftermidnight.com(网址），你们可以了解到更多

but I've applied them to myself for over a decade,

要知道我已经把这些理念应用在我自己身上十几年了，

and I'm still here, and I still have my house, and the most important thing is,

我还是好好的站在这，我还是有房有车，并且最重要的是，

I hope I've done enough to inject a little green ink into your lives,

我希望我的发言可以为大家的生活注入一点点绿色墨水，

so that when you go away and you're making your next

所以当你离开这里并且要考虑你们的下一个

absolutely sensible and rational decision, you'll take some time to think,

特别重要并且关键的决定时，你们会花时间多想一想

"Hmm, I wonder whether this also makes sense

“恩，我很希望今天的演讲能让大家觉得不虚此行

in our new world after midnight." Thank you very much.

在我们这个新世界里。” 非常感谢大家

(Applause)

（喝彩）

Thank you, thank you. (Applause)

谢谢，谢谢大家。（喝彩）