A 30-year history of the future | Nicholas Negroponte

Prevodilac: Miloš Milosavljević Lektor: Mile Živković

(Video) Nicholas Negroponte: Can we switch to the video disc,

(Video) Nikolas Negroponte:

Možemo li da pređemo na video disk koji je u "plej" režimu?

which is in play mode?

I'm really interested in how you put people and computers together.

Stvarno me zanima kako spojiti ljude i kompjutere.

We will be using the TV screens or their equivalents

Koristićemo TV ekrane ili njihove ekvivalente

for electronic books of the future.

za elektronske knjige budućnosti.

(Music, crosstalk)

(Muzika, preklapanje govora)

Very interested in touch-sensitive displays,

...vrlo zainteresovan za ekrane osetljive na dodir,

high-tech, high-touch, not having to pick up your fingers to use them.

ne morate da koristite prste da biste ih koristili.

There is another way where computers

Postoji i drugi način gde ljudi

touch people: wearing, physically wearing.

dodiruju kompjutere: noseći ih na sebi.

Suddenly on September 11th,

Iznenada, 11. septembra,

the world got bigger.

svet je postao veći.

NN: Thank you. (Applause)

NN: Hvala vam (Aplauz)

Thank you.

Hvala.

When I was asked to do this,

Kada su me zamolili da uradim ovo,

I was also asked to look at all 14 TED Talks

takođe su me zamolili da pogledam svih 14 TED govora

that I had given,

koje sam održao,

chronologically.

hronološkim redom.

The first one was actually two hours.

Prvi je trajao dva sata.

The second one was an hour,

Drugi je bio sat,

and then they became half hours,

a onda su postali polusatni,

and all I noticed was my bald spot getting bigger.

i sve što sam primetio bila je moja ćela koja se povećavala.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

Imagine seeing your life, 30 years of it, go by,

Zamislite da posmatrate svoj život, 30 godina, kako prolazi,

and it was, to say the least,

i za mene je to bilo, u najmanju ruku

for me, quite a shocking experience.

prilično šokantno iskustvo.

So what I'm going to do in my time

Tako da ću za svoje vreme

is try and share with you what happened

pokušati da vam prenesem

during the 30 years,

šta se desilo za 30 godina,

and then also make a prediction,

a onda i predvideti

and then tell you a little bit

i reći vam malo

about what I'm doing next.

o tome šta ću raditi sledeće.

And I put on a slide

Stavio sam na slajd

where TED 1 happened in my life.

kada se TED 1 dogodio u mom životu.

And it's rather important

I prilično je važno

because I had done 15 years of research before it,

jer sam radio 15 godina istraživanja pre toga,

so I had a backlog, so it was easy.

tako da sam imao zalihe, pa je bilo lako.

It's not that I was Fidel Castro

Nije da sam Fidel Kastro

and I could talk for two hours,

i da mogu da govorim dva sata,

or Bucky Fuller.

ili Baki Fuler.

I had 15 years of stuff,

Ja sam imao 15 godina nečega

and the Media Lab was about to start.

i Laboratorija za medije je trebalo da počne sa radom.

So that was easy.

Tako da je bilo lako.

But there are a couple of things

Ali ima par stvari

about that period

u vezi s tim periodom

and about what happened that are

i onim što se desilo, koje su

really quite important.

prilično važne.

One is that

Jedna je da je

it was a period when computers

to bio period kada kompjuteri

weren't yet for people.

nisu još bili za ljude.

And the other thing that sort of happened

A druga stvar koja se desila

during that time is that

negde u to vreme je

we were considered sissy computer scientists.

da su nas smatrali kompjuterskim stručnjacima mlakonjama.

We weren't considered the real thing.

Nisu nas shvatali ozbiljno.

So what I'm going to show you is, in retrospect,

Tako da je ono što ću vam pokazati u retrospektivi

a lot more interesting and a lot more accepted

mnogo interesantnije i prihvaćenije

than it was at the time.

nego što je bilo tada.

So I'm going to characterize the years

Opisaću godine

and I'm even going to go back

i čak ću otići dalje unazad

to some very early work of mine,

do svojih vrlo ranih radova,

and this was the kind of stuff I was doing in the '60s:

i ovo je otprilike ono što sam radio '60-ih:

very direct manipulation,

vrlo direktna manipulacija,

very influenced as I studied architecture

pod uticajem arhitekte Moše Safdija

by the architect Moshe Safdie,

jer sam studirao arhitekturu.

and you can see that we even built robotic things

Možete videti da smo čak napravili robotske stvari

that could build habitat-like structures.

koje su mogle da grade strukture u obliku staništa.

And this for me was

Ovo za mene još nije bila

not yet the Media Lab,

Laboratorija za medije,

but was the beginning of what I'll call

ali je bio početak onoga što nazivam

sensory computing,

senzorno računarstvo,

and I pick fingers

i izabrao sam prste,

partly because everybody thought it was ridiculous.

delom zato što su svi mislili da je to apsurdno.

Papers were published

Objavljivani su radovi

about how stupid it was to use fingers.

o tome kako je glupo koristiti prste.

Three reasons: One was they were low-resolution.

Iz tri razloga: prvo, niske su rezolucije.

The other is your hand would occlude

Drugi je da će vaša ruka zakloniti

what you wanted to see,

ono što želite da vidite

and the third, which was the winner,

i treći, koji je pobedio,

was that your fingers would get the screen dirty,

bio je da će vaši prsti uprljati ekran

and hence, fingers would never be

i zbog toga, prsti nikad neće biti

a device that you'd use.

sredstvo koje biste koristili.

And this was a device we built in the '70s,

Ovo je uređaj koji smo napravili u '70-im,

which has never even been picked up.

koji nije nikad prihvaćen.

It's not just touch sensitive,

On nije samo osetljiv

it's pressure sensitive.

na dodir, već i na pritisak.

(Video) Voice: Put a yellow circle there.

(Video) Glas: Stavi žuti krug tamo.

NN: Later work, and again this was before TED 1 —

NN: Kasniji rad, opet pre TED-a 1 -

(Video) Voice: Move that west of the diamond.

(Video) Glas: Pomeri to levo od dijamanta.

Create a large green circle there.

Napravi veliki zeleni krug tamo.

Man: Aw, shit.

Čovek: Oh, sranje.

NN: — was to sort of do interface concurrently,

NN: - bio je da se napravi istovremeni interfejs,

so when you talked and you pointed

tako da kad pričate i pokazujete

and you had, if you will,

imate, da kažem,

multiple channels.

višestruke kanale.

Entebbe happened.

Desio se Entebe.

1976, Air France was hijacked,

Godine 1976. Er Frans je otet

taken to Entebbe,

i odveden u Entebe,

and the Israelis not only did an extraordinary rescue,

a Izraelci nisu samo obavili izvanredno spasavanje,

they did it partly because they had practiced

oni su to uradili jer su vežbali

on a physical model of the airport,

na fizičkom modelu aerodroma,

because they had built the airport,

jer su sagradili aerodrom,

so they built a model in the desert,

sagradili su model u pustinji,

and when they arrived at Entebbe,

i kad su stigli u Entebe,

they knew where to go because they had actually been there.

znali su gde treba da idu jer su u stvari već bili tamo.

The U.S. government asked some of us, '76,

Vlada SAD-a je '76. zamolila neke od nas

if we could replicate that computationally,

da napravimo kompjutersku kopiju toga

and of course somebody like myself says yes.

i naravno neko poput mene je rekao: da.

Immediately, you get a contract,

Istog momenta dobijete ugovor,

Department of Defense,

Ministarstva odbrane

and we built this truck and this rig.

i napravili smo ovaj kamion i platformu.

We did sort of a simulation,

Uradili smo simulaciju

because you had video discs,

jer ste imali video diskove

and again, this is '76.

i opet, ovo je '76.

And then many years later,

I onda, mnogo godina kasnije,

you get this truck,

dobili ste ovaj automobil

and so you have Google Maps.

i Gugl mape.

Still people thought,

I dalje su ljudi mislili:

no, that was not serious computer science,

ne, to nije ozbiljna kompjuterska nauka,

and it was a man named Jerry Wiesner,

a bio je čovek po imenu Džeri Vizner,

who happened to be the president of MIT,

koji je bio predsednik MIT-a,

who did think it was computer science.

koji je mislio da to jeste kompjuterska nauka.

And one of the keys for anybody

Jedna od ključnih stvari za svakoga

who wants to start something in life:

ko hoće da započne nešto u životu:

Make sure your president is part of it.

pobrinite se da vaš predsednik bude deo toga.

So when I was doing the Media Lab,

Kad sam ja radio u Laboratoriji za medije,

it was like having a gorilla in the front seat.

to je bilo kao da sam imao gorilu na prednjem sedištu.

If you were stopped for speeding

Ako bi vas zaustavili zbog brze vožnje

and the officer looked in the window

i policajac pogleda kroz prozor

and saw who was in the passenger seat,

i vidi ko je na suvozačkom sedištu,

then, "Oh, continue on, sir."

rekao bi: "Oh gospodine, izvolite prođite."

And so we were able,

I tako smo mogli,

and this is a cute, actually, device, parenthetically.

i ovo je u stvari simpatičan uređaj.

This was a lenticular photograph of Jerry Wiesner

Ovo je lentikularna fotografija Džerija Viznera,

where the only thing that changed in the photograph

gde su jedine izmenjene stvari

were the lips.

bile usne.

So when you oscillated that little piece

I kada biste klatili ovu lentikularnu fotografiju

of lenticular sheet with his photograph,

sa njegovim likom,

it would be in lip sync

usne bi bile sinhronizovane

with zero bandwidth.

sa frekventnim opsegom nula.

It was a zero-bandwidth teleconferencing system

To je tada bio sistem za telekonferenciju

at the time.

sa širinom frekventnog opsega nula.

So this was the Media Lab's —

Ovo je bilo iz Laboratorije za medije -

this is what we said we'd do,

ono što smo rekli da bismo radili,

that the world of computers, publishing,

da bismo spojili svet kompjutera,

and so on would come together.

izdavaštva i tako dalje.

Again, not generally accepted,

Ponovo, generalno neprihvaćeno,

but very much part of TED in the early days.

ali je bilo deo TEDa u ranim danima.

And this is really where we were headed.

I u tom smo pravcu, u stvari, krenuli.

And that created the Media Lab.

I to je stvorilo Laboratoriju za medije.

One of the things about age

Jedna od karakteristika godina je to

is that I can tell you with great confidence,

da mogu sa sigurnošću da vam kažem

I've been to the future.

da sam bio u budućnosti.

I've been there, actually, many times.

Bio sam tamo, u stvari, mnogo puta.

And the reason I say that is,

Razlog zašto to kažem je,

how many times in my life have I said,

koliko puta sam u životu rekao:

"Oh, in 10 years, this will happen,"

"Ah, za 10 godina, to će se desiti,"

and then 10 years comes.

i onda prođe 10 godina.

And then you say, "Oh, in five years, this will happen."

I onda kažete: "Za 5 godina, to će se desiti."

And then five years comes.

I onda prođe 5 godina.

So I say this a little bit with having felt

Kažem to malo sa osećanjem

that I'd been there a number of times,

da sam prošao to više puta,

and one of the things that is most quoted

i jedna od najcitiranijih stvari

that I've ever said

koje sam ikada rekao je:

is that computing is not about computers,

"računarstvo nije više tu zbog računara,

[već zbog življenja."]

and that didn't quite get enough traction,

i to nije baš povuklo mnogo toga,

and then it started to.

a onda je počelo.

It started to because people caught on

Počelo je jer su ljudi shvatili

that the medium wasn't the message.

da medijum nije poruka.

And the reason I show this car

Razlog što pokazujem ovaj auto

in actually a rather ugly slide

na prilično ružnom slajdu

is just again to tell you the kind of story

je opet da bih vam ispričao priču

that characterized a little bit of my life.

koja karakteriše jedan deo mog života.

This is a student of mine

Ovo je moj student

who had done a Ph.D. called "Backseat Driver."

koji je uradio doktorsku disertaciju

"Vozač sa zadnjeg sedišta".

It was in the early days of GPS,

To je bilo u ranim danima GPS-a,

the car knew where it was,

automobil je znao gde se nalazi

and it would give audio instructions

i davao je zvučne instrukcije vozaču

to the driver, when to turn right, when to turn left and so on.

kada da skrene desno, kada levo itd.

Turns out, there are a lot of things

Mnogo stvari je

in those instructions that back in that period

u tim instrukcijama u to vreme

were pretty challenging,

predstavljalo priličan problem,

like what does it mean, take the next right?

na primer, šta znači: skrenite u sledeću desno?

Well, if you're coming up on a street,

Pa, ako idete ulicom,

the next right's probably the one after,

sledeća desno je verovatno jedna posle,

and there are lots of issues,

i tu ima mnogo problema,

and the student did a wonderful thesis,

i student je uradio divnu disertaciju,

and the MIT patent office said "Don't patent it.

a služba za patente MIT-a je rekla: "Ne patentirajte to.

It'll never be accepted.

To nikada neće biti prihvaćeno.

The liabilities are too large.

Obaveze su prevelike.

There will be insurance issues.

Biće problema sa osiguranjem.

Don't patent it."

Ne patentirajte to."

So we didn't,

I nismo,

but it shows you how people, again, at times,

ali to vam pokazuje kako ljudi ponekad,

don't really look at what's happening.

u stvari, ne gledaju šta se dešava.

Some work, and I'll just go through these very quickly,

Neki radovi, i proći ću kroz to vrlo brzo,

a lot of sensory stuff.

mnogo stvari sa senzorima.

You might recognize a young Yo-Yo Ma

Možda prepoznajete mladog Jo-Jo Ma,

and tracking his body for playing

praćenje njegovog tela dok svira

the cello or the hypercello.

čelo ili hiperčelo.

These fellows literally walked around like that at the time.

Ovi tipovi su bukvalno hodali ovako u to vreme.

It's now a little bit more discreet

Sada je to malo diskretnije

and more commonplace.

i uobičajenije.

And then there are at least three heroes

Onda, tu je najmanje tri heroja

I want to quickly mention.

koje želim brzo da pomenem.

Marvin Minsky, who taught me a lot

Marvin Minski, koji me je dosta naučio

about common sense,

o zdravom razumu,

and I will talk briefly about Muriel Cooper,

i reći ću kratko o Mjurijel Kuper,

who was very important to Ricky Wurman

koja je bila veoma važna Rikiju Vurmanu

and to TED, and in fact, when she got onstage,

i TEDu i u stvari, kada je dospela na binu,

she said, the first thing she said was,

prva stvar koju je rekla bila je:

"I introduced Ricky to Nicky."

"Upoznala sam Rikija sa Nikijem."

And nobody calls me Nicky

Niko me ne zove Niki,

and nobody calls Richard Ricky,

a Ričarda niko ne zove Riki,

so nobody knew who she was talking about.

tako da niko nije znao o čemu ona to priča.

And then, of course, Seymour Papert,

I naravno, Simor Papert,

who is the person who said,

osoba koja je rekla:

"You can't think about thinking

"Ne možete razmišljati o razmišljanju,

unless you think about thinking about something."

osim ako razmišljate o razmišljanju o nečemu."

And that's actually — you can unpack that later.

Možete da razmislite o tome kasnije.

It's a pretty profound statement.

To je prilično duboka misao.

I'm showing some slides

Pokazujem neke slajdove

that were from TED 2,

koji su sa TEDa 2,

a little silly as slides, perhaps.

malo blesave slajdove, možda.

Then I felt television really was about displays.

Tada sam osetio da su na televiziji najbitniji ekrani.

Again, now we're past TED 1,

Tada je prošao TED 1,

but just around the time of TED 2,

ali negde oko TEDa 2,

and what I'd like to mention here is,

i želeo bih ovde da pomenem

even though you could imagine

da iako ste mogli da zamislite

intelligence in the device,

inteligenciju u uređaju,

I look today at some of the work

danas gledam neke radove

being done about the Internet of Things,

o "Internetu stvari"

and I think it's kind of tragically pathetic,

i mislim da su tragično patetični,

because what has happened is people take

jer ono što se desilo je to da ljudi uzmu

the oven panel and put it on your cell phone,

displej sa rerne i stave ga na mobilni telefon,

or the door key onto your cell phone,

ili ključ od vrata stave na mobilni,

just taking it and bringing it to you,

samo uzmu i donesu vam,

and in fact that's actually what you don't want.

a to je u stvari ono što ne želite.

You want to put a chicken in the oven,

Želite da stavite pile u rernu

and the oven says, "Aha, it's a chicken,"

i da rerna kaže: "Aha, to je pile,"

and it cooks the chicken.

i ispeče pile.

"Oh, it's cooking the chicken for Nicholas,

"Aha, pile je za Nikolasa,

and he likes it this way and that way."

a on ga voli ovako ili onako pečeno."

So the intelligence, instead of being in the device,

Tako da smo inteligenciju, umesto da bude u uređaju,

we have started today

danas počeli

to move it back onto the cell phone

da vraćamo u mobilne telefone

or closer to the user,

ili bliže korisniku,

not a particularly enlightened view

ne baš prosvetljen pogled

of the Internet of Things.

"Interneta stvari".

Television, again, television what I said today,

Televizija koju sam pomenuo danas,

that was back in 1990,

kakva je bila 1990.

and the television of tomorrow

i televizija sutrašnjice

would look something like that.

bi izgledala otprilike ovako.

Again, people, but they laughed cynically,

Ljudi su se smejali cinično.

they didn't laugh with much appreciation.

Nisu se smejali sa odobravanjem.

Telecommunications in the 1990s,

Telekomunikacije '90-ih -

George Gilder decided that he would call this diagram

Džordž Gilder je odlučio da nazove ovaj dijagram

the Negroponte switch.

"Negroponte prekidač".

I'm probably much less famous than George,

Ja sam verovatno mnogo manje poznat od Džordža,

so when he called it the Negroponte switch, it stuck,

i kad ga je nazvao Negroponte prekidač, naziv se zadržao,

but the idea of things that came in the ground

ali ideja da stvari koje prolaze kroz zemlju

would go in the air and stuff in the air

pređu u vazduh, a stvari u vazduhu

would go into the ground

se premeste u zemlju

has played itself out.

se iscrpela.

That is the original slide from that year,

To je originalni slajd iz te godine,

and it has worked in lockstep obedience.

i radio je vojničkom poslušnošću.

We started Wired magazine.

Pokrenuli smo časopis Vajerd.

Some people, I remember we shared

Neki ljudi... sećam se da smo povremeno

the reception desk periodically,

delili recepcionarski sto,

and some parent called up irate that his son

i neki roditelj je zvao, besan što je njegov sin

had given up Sports Illustrated

odustao od Sports ilustrejtida

to subscribe for Wired,

da bi se pretplatio na Vajerd,

and he said, "Are you some porno magazine or something?"

i rekao: "Jeste li vi neki porno časopis?"

and couldn't understand why his son

Nije razumeo zašto bi njegovog sina

would be interested in Wired, at any rate.

uopšte interesovao Vajerd.

I will go through this a little quicker.

Proći ću kroz ovo malo brže.

This is my favorite, 1995,

Ovo je moja omiljena, iz 1995.,

back page of Newsweek magazine.

naslovna strana časopisa Njusvik.

Okay. Read it. (Laughter)

Dobro. Pročitajte. (Smeh)

["Nicholas Negroponte, director of the MIT Media Lab, predicts that we'll soon buy books and newspapers straight over the Internet. Uh, sure." —Clifford Stoll, Newsweek, 1995]

["Nikolas Negroponte, direktor MIT Media Lab-a, predviđa da ćemo uskoro kupovati knjige i novine preko interneta. Važi." - Kliford Stoll, Njusvik, 1995]

You must admit that gives you,

Priznaćete da vam to pruža,

at least it gives me pleasure

barem meni pruža zadovoljstvo

when somebody says how dead wrong you are.

kad neko kaže kako se grdno varate.

"Being Digital" came out.

Izašla je knjiga "Biti digitalan".

For me, it gave me an opportunity

To mi je dalo priliku

to be more in the trade press

da budem više u profesionalnim publikacijama

and get this out to the public,

i iznesem to u javnost,

and it also allowed us to build the new Media Lab,

i takođe nam je omogućilo da izgradimo novu Laboratoriju za medije.

which if you haven't been to, visit,

Ako je niste posetili, učinite to

because it's a beautiful piece of architecture

jer je to lepo arhitektonsko delo,

aside from being a wonderful place to work.

pored toga što je divno mesto za rad.

So these are the things we were saying in those TEDs.

Ovo su stvari koje smo govorili na ovim TED konferencijama.

[Today, multimedia is a desktop or living room experience, because the apparatus is so clunky. This will change dramatically with small, bright, thin, high-resolution displays. — 1995]

[Danas, multimedijja je praksa na radnom stolu ili u radnoj sobi, jer je oprema isuviše nezgrapna. Ovo će se dramatično promeniti sa malim, svetlim, tankim ekranima visoke rezolucije. - 1995.]

We came to them.

Došli smo do njih.

I looked forward to it every year.

Radovao sam im se svake godine.

It was the party that Ricky Wurman never had

To je bila žurka koju Riki Vurman nije imao,

in the sense that he invited many of his old friends,

u smislu da pozove mnoge stare prijatelje,

including myself.

uključujući i mene.

And then something for me changed

A onda se za mene nešto promenilo

pretty profoundly.

prilično duboko.

I became more involved with computers and learning

Počeo sam više da se bavim kompjuterima i učenjem

and influenced by Seymour,

i pod uticajem Simora,

but particularly looking at learning

ali posebno gledajući na učenje

as something that is best approximated

kao na nešto što je najpribližnije

by computer programming.

kompjuterskom programiranju.

When you write a computer program,

Kada napišete kompjuterski program,

you've got to not just list things out

ne treba samo da izlistate stvari

and sort of take an algorithm

i uzmete algoritam

and translate it into a set of instructions,

i prevedete ga u skup instrukcija,

but when there's a bug, and all programs have bugs,

već kad postoji softverska greška, a svi programi imaju greške,

you've got to de-bug it.

treba da je otklonite.

You've got to go in, change it,

Treba da uđete, promenite je

and then re-execute,

i ponovo pokrenete

and you iterate,

i ponovite to,

and that iteration is really

i to ponavljanje je u stvari

a very, very good approximation of learning.

vrlo približno učenju.

So that led to my own work with Seymour

To je dovelo do mog rada sa Simorom

in places like Cambodia

na mestu kao što je Kambodža

and the starting of One Laptop per Child.

i pokretanju akcije "Jedan laptop po detetu"

Enough TED Talks on One Laptop per Child,

Dosta je bilo TED govora o ovoj akciji,

so I'll go through it very fast,

pa ću brzo proći kroz to,

but it did give us the chance

ali to nam je dalo priliku

to do something at a relatively large scale

da uradimo nešto na relativno širokom planu

in the area of learning, development and computing.

u oblasti učenja, razvoja i računarstva.

Very few people know that One Laptop per Child

Malo ljudi zna da je "Jedan laptop po detetu"

was a $1 billion project,

bio projekat vredan milijardu dolara

and it was, at least over the seven years I ran it,

i bio je, barem tokom 7 godina koliko sam ga ja vodio,

but even more important, the World Bank

ali još važnije je da Svetska banka

contributed zero, USAID zero.

i USAID nisu dali ništa.

It was mostly the countries using their own treasuries,

To su bile uglavnom te zemlje,

koje su koristile svoja bogatstva,

which is very interesting,

što je veoma interesantno,

at least to me it was very interesting

barem je meni bilo,

in terms of what I plan to do next.

što se tiče toga šta planiram da uradim sledeće.

So these are the various places it happened.

Ovo su razna mesta gde je to realizovano.

I then tried an experiment,

Onda sam probao jedan eksperiment

and the experiment happened in Ethiopia.

koji se desio u Etiopiji.

And here's the experiment.

I evo eksperimenta.

The experiment is,

Eksperiment je:

can learning happen where there are no schools.

da li može da se uči tamo gde nema škola.

And we dropped off tablets

Dali smo im tablete

with no instructions

bez instrukcija

and let the children figure it out.

i pustili decu da se snađu.

And in a short period of time,

I za kratko vreme,

they not only

ne samo

turned them on and were using 50 apps per child

da su ih uključili i koristili 50 aplikacija po detetu

within five days,

u toku pet dana,

they were singing "ABC" songs within two weeks,

ili pevali pesmice po abecedi za dve nedelje,

but they hacked Android within six months.

već su hakovali Android za šest meseci.

And so that seemed sufficiently interesting.

I tako je to izgledalo dovoljno interesantno.

This is perhaps the best picture I have.

Ovo je možda najbolja slika koju imam.

The kid on your right

Dete s vaše desne strane

has sort of nominated himself as teacher.

je nominovalo sebe za učitelja.

Look at the kid on the left, and so on.

Pogledajte dete s leve strane, itd.

There are no adults involved in this at all.

Odrasli uopšte nisu uključeni u ovo.

So I said, well can we do this

Pitao sam da li možemo ovo da uradimo

at a larger scale?

u većem obimu?

And what is it that's missing?

I šta je to što nedostaje?

The kids are giving a press conference at this point,

Deca drže konferenciju za štampu u ovom momentu

and sort of writing in the dirt.

i pišu po prašini.

And the answer is, what is missing?

I odgovor je, šta nedostaje?

And I'm going to skip over my prediction, actually,

I preskočiću svoje predviđanje

because I'm running out of time,

jer mi ponestaje vremena

and here's the question, is what's going to happen?

i evo pitanja, šta će se desiti?

I think the challenge

Mislim da je izazov

is to connect the last billion people,

povezati poslednjih milijardu ljudi,

and connecting the last billion

a povezivanje poslednje milijarde

is very different than connecting the next billion,

je vrlo različito od povezivanja sledeće milijarde,

and the reason it's different

a razlog je taj

is that the next billion

što je sledeća milijarda

are sort of low-hanging fruit,

lakše dostupna,

but the last billion are rural.

ali poslednja milijarda su ruralni.

Being rural and being poor

Biti ruralan i biti siromašan

are very different.

je vrlo različito.

Poverty tends to be created by our society,

Siromaštvo je obično kreirano od strane našeg društva,

and the people in that community are not poor

a ljudi u toj zajednici nisu uopšte

in the same way at all.

siromašni na isti način.

They may be primitive,

Možda su primitivni,

but the way to approach it and to connect them,

ali način da im priđemo i povežemo ih,

the history of One Laptop per Child,

priča "Jednog laptopa po detetu",

and the experiment in Ethiopia,

i eksperimenta u Etiopiji,

lead me to believe that we can in fact

dovodi me do verovanja da možemo

do this in a very short period of time.

da uradimo to u kratkom vremenskom periodu.

And so my plan,

I moj plan je -

and unfortunately I haven't been able

a nažalost nisam mogao

to get my partners at this point

da nagovorim svoje partnere

to let me announce them,

da mi dozvole da ih najavim -

but is to do this with a stationary satellite.

da to uradimo sa stacionarnim satelitom.

There are many reasons

Ima mnogo razloga

that stationary satellites aren't the best things,

zašto stacionarni sateliti nisu najbolje stvari,

but there are a lot of reasons why they are,

ali ima i mnogo razloga zašto jesu,

and for two billion dollars,

i za dve milijarde dolara

you can connect a lot more than 100 million people,

možete povezati mnogo više od 100 miliona ljudi,

but the reason I picked two,

ali razlog zašto sam izabrao dve,

and I will leave this as my last slide,

i ostaviću ovo kao poslednji slajd,

is two billion dollars

je to što je dve milijarde dolara

is what we were spending

onoliko koliko potrošimo

in Afghanistan

u Avganistanu

every week.

svake nedelje.

So surely if we can connect

I naravno, ako možemo da povežemo

Africa and the last billion people

Afriku i poslednjih milijardu ljudi

for numbers like that,

sa takvim ciframa,

we should be doing it.

trebalo bi to da radimo.

Thank you very much.

Hvala vam mnogo.

(Applause)

(Aplauz)

Chris Anderson: Stay up there. Stay up there.

Kris Anderson: Ostanite gore. Ostanite gore.

NN: You're going to give me extra time?

N.N.: Daćete mi dodatno vreme?

CA: No. That was wickedly clever, wickedly clever.

K.A.: Ne. To je bilo pametno.

You gamed it beautifully.

Lepo ste se kladili.

Nicholas, what is your prediction?

Nikolas, koje je Vaše predviđanje?

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

NN: Thank you for asking.

N.N.: Hvala što pitate.

I'll tell you what my prediction is,

Reći ću Vam šta je moje predviđanje,

and my prediction, and this is a prediction,

i to je predviđanje,

because it'll be 30 years. I won't be here.

jer za 30 godina neću biti ovde.

But one of the things about learning how to read,

Ali jedna stvar u vezi sa učenjem da se čita.

we have been doing a lot of consuming

Konzumiramo mnogo informacija

of information going through our eyes,

našim očima,

and so that may be a very inefficient channel.

a to je možda vrlo neefikasan kanal.

So my prediction is that we are going to ingest information

Tako da je moje predviđanje da ćemo variti informacije.

You're going to swallow a pill and know English.

Progutaćete pilulu i znaćete engleski.

You're going to swallow a pill and know Shakespeare.

Progutaćete pilulu i znaćete Šekspira.

And the way to do it is through the bloodstream.

I način da se to uradi je preko krvotoka.

So once it's in your bloodstream,

Tako da kad vam se nađe u krvotoku,

it basically goes through it and gets into the brain,

prolazi kroz njega i stiže u mozak,

and when it knows that it's in the brain

i kad sazna da je stigla u mozak

in the different pieces,

u više komada,

it deposits it in the right places.

taloži se na pravim mestima.

So it's ingesting.

Tako da je svarljivo.

CA: Have you been hanging out with Ray Kurzweil by any chance?

K.A.: Da se niste slučajno

družili sa Rejom Kurcvajlom?

NN: No, but I've been hanging around with Ed Boyden

N.N.: Ne, ali sam se družio sa Edom Bojdenom

and hanging around with one of the speakers

i sa jednim od govornika

who is here, Hugh Herr,

koji je ovde, Hju Herom,

and there are a number of people.

i sa velikim brojem ljudi.

This isn't quite as far-fetched,

To nije tako neverovatno,

so 30 years from now.

tako da 30 godina od sada...

CA: We will check it out.

K.A.: Proverićemo.

We're going to be back and we're going to play this clip 30 years from now,

Vratićemo se i pustićemo ovaj video za 30 godina,

and then all eat the red pill.

i onda ćemo svi pojesti crvenu pilulu.

Well thank you for that.

Hvala vam na tome.

Nicholas Negroponte.

Nikolas Negroponte.

NN: Thank you.

N.N.: Hvala vam.

(Applause)

(Aplauz)