A 30-year history of the future | Nicholas Negroponte

翻译人员: Linus De Phillip 校对人员: Xiaoou Chen

(Video) Nicholas Negroponte: Can we switch to the video disc,

（视频）尼葛洛庞帝：我们能调到视频光碟么？

which is in play mode?

播放模式是什么？

I'm really interested in how you put people and computers together.

我对于你如何把人和和电脑放在一起非常感兴趣。

我们将会用电视屏幕或类似的东西

We will be using the TV screens or their equivalents

for electronic books of the future.

来当做未来的书籍。

(Music, crosstalk)

（音乐，电信频道之间的串话干扰）

Very interested in touch-sensitive displays,

对于触摸屏幕，

high-tech, high-touch, not having to pick up your fingers to use them.

高科技，高触感，不需要拿起手指就可以操纵它们。

There is another way where computers

有另外一种方式电脑和人可以相互接触

touch people: wearing, physically wearing.

穿戴高科技的物品。

Suddenly on September 11th,

突然，在 9 月 11 日。

the world got bigger.

世界变大了。

NN: Thank you. (Applause)

谢谢。（掌声）

Thank you.

谢谢

When I was asked to do this,

当我被请来做这个的时候。

I was also asked to look at all 14 TED Talks

我还被要求观看 14 个 TED 演讲

that I had given,

这些演讲

chronologically.

都是按时间顺序的。

The first one was actually two hours.

第一个有两小时。

The second one was an hour,

第二个有两小时，

and then they became half hours,

接着变成了半个小时，

and all I noticed was my bald spot getting bigger.

我还注意到了我的秃顶越来越严重了。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

Imagine seeing your life, 30 years of it, go by,

想象你看到你30年的是如何经过的，

and it was, to say the least,

至少对于我来说

for me, quite a shocking experience.

是非常震惊的一次经历。

So what I'm going to do in my time

在这次的演讲中呢

is try and share with you what happened

我将与你们分享

during the 30 years,

这三十年发生了什么，

and then also make a prediction,

并且对未来做一个预知，

and then tell you a little bit

还告诉你们

about what I'm doing next.

我将要做的一些事情。

And I put on a slide

我把我第一次 TED 演讲发生的时间，

where TED 1 happened in my life.

标注在了 PPT 里。

And it's rather important

这是非常重要的

because I had done 15 years of research before it,

因为在那次演讲之前我做了 15 年的调查，

so I had a backlog, so it was easy.

我有自己的知识储备，所以并不难。

It's not that I was Fidel Castro

不是因为我是菲德尔·卡斯特罗，或是

and I could talk for two hours,

富勒巴基

or Bucky Fuller.

可以说上两个小时。

I had 15 years of stuff,

是因为我有 15 年的经验积累，

and the Media Lab was about to start.

并且媒体实验室在那时也即将开始。

So that was easy.

这才是简单的原因。

But there are a couple of things

但是在那个时期，

about that period

发生的事情。

and about what happened that are

这些发生的事

really quite important.

是非常重要的。

One is that

其中一个就是

it was a period when computers

那是一个当电脑

weren't yet for people.

还没有普及的时代。

And the other thing that sort of happened

还有一件在那个时期左右

during that time is that

发生的事情是

we were considered sissy computer scientists.

我们被认作为毫无价值的电脑科学家。

We weren't considered the real thing.

我们不被关注。

So what I'm going to show you is, in retrospect,

所以我要向你们展示的是

a lot more interesting and a lot more accepted

一个更加有趣

than it was at the time.

更加被接受的东西。

So I'm going to characterize the years

我将要要描述的

and I'm even going to go back

我那时的一些

to some very early work of mine,

工作成果，

and this was the kind of stuff I was doing in the '60s:

这就是一些我在 60 年代研究的技术：

very direct manipulation,

直接控制电脑，

very influenced as I studied architecture

在我学习摩西·萨夫迪的建筑学时

by the architect Moshe Safdie,

那是非常有影响力的，

and you can see that we even built robotic things

你还可以看到我们甚至建造

that could build habitat-like structures.

可以建造栖息环境类似结构的机器类东西。

And this for me was

但这对于我来说

not yet the Media Lab,

还不算是媒体实验室，

but was the beginning of what I'll call

但这是我将要称作为

sensory computing,

感官计算的雏形，

and I pick fingers

我选择手指

partly because everybody thought it was ridiculous.

部分原因是因为所有人都认为这是荒唐的。

Papers were published

关于使用手指控制是多么愚蠢的

about how stupid it was to use fingers.

论文被发表。

Three reasons: One was they were low-resolution.

有三个原因：第一个是因为低分辨率。

The other is your hand would occlude

其次是手指会挡住

what you wanted to see,

你想要看的，

and the third, which was the winner,

第三个，也是这三个之中最重要的，

was that your fingers would get the screen dirty,

你的手指会弄脏屏幕，

and hence, fingers would never be

因此手指

a device that you'd use.

将永不会是你要使用的设备。

And this was a device we built in the '70s,

这是一个我们在 70 年代建造的设备，

which has never even been picked up.

但从未再继续被继续建造。

It's not just touch sensitive,

这不是触摸感应，

it's pressure sensitive.

而是压敏感应。

(Video) Voice: Put a yellow circle there.

（视频）声音：在哪里放一个黄色的圈。

NN: Later work, and again this was before TED 1 —

尼古拉斯 内格罗蓬特：这是之后的研究，但仍然在 TED 1 之前

(Video) Voice: Move that west of the diamond.

尼古拉斯 内格罗蓬特：把那移到菱形西边。

Create a large green circle there.

在那里画一个大的绿色圆圈。

Man: Aw, shit.

男人：哦，该死。

NN: — was to sort of do interface concurrently,

尼古拉斯 内格罗蓬特：这就像多界面的同时操控，

so when you talked and you pointed

当你说的同时你指向某一点

and you had, if you will,

这也就是

multiple channels.

多通道感应。

Entebbe happened.

恩德培发生过一企事件。

1976, Air France was hijacked,

在 1974 年，法国航空被劫机，

taken to Entebbe,

被带到恩德培，

and the Israelis not only did an extraordinary rescue,

以色列人不仅进行了一次完美的救援，

they did it partly because they had practiced

因为他们

on a physical model of the airport,

在实际模型上排练过，

because they had built the airport,

因为他们造了这个机场，

so they built a model in the desert,

在沙漠里建造了一个模型

and when they arrived at Entebbe,

当他们到达恩德培时，

they knew where to go because they had actually been there.

他们知道该往哪里走，因为他们在模型里演练过。

The U.S. government asked some of us, '76,

在 76 年美国政府问我们中的一些人

if we could replicate that computationally,

我们是否可以以电脑的方式复制出那个东西，

and of course somebody like myself says yes.

像我这样的人肯定是说了可以。

Immediately, you get a contract,

立刻你便得到一份合同，

Department of Defense,

防御部门，

and we built this truck and this rig.

我们之后便造了这个卡车和其配备。

We did sort of a simulation,

我们大概的做了模拟测试，

because you had video discs,

因为你有视频碟片，

and again, this is '76.

而且这仍然还是 76 年的事。

And then many years later,

在过了些年，

you get this truck,

就有了这个货车，

and so you have Google Maps.

和谷歌地图。

Still people thought,

但仍有人们想

no, that was not serious computer science,

那不算是严谨的电脑科学，

and it was a man named Jerry Wiesner,

但是恰好 MIT 的校长

who happened to be the president of MIT,

杰里·威斯纳

who did think it was computer science.

相信这是电脑科学。

And one of the keys for anybody

一个人想在

who wants to start something in life:

生活中做出点成就的关键

Make sure your president is part of it.

是确保你的校长支持你。

So when I was doing the Media Lab,

当我开始媒体实验室的时候，

it was like having a gorilla in the front seat.

感觉就像坐在前排的大猩猩。

If you were stopped for speeding

如果我们因为超速被拦截

and the officer looked in the window

交警向车窗内看

and saw who was in the passenger seat,

看到了座位里坐的是誰的时候，

then, "Oh, continue on, sir."

他会说：“哦，请您继续开吧。”

And so we were able,

因此我们就可以这样去做，

and this is a cute, actually, device, parenthetically.

这也确实是一个非常可爱的设备。

This was a lenticular photograph of Jerry Wiesner

这是杰里威斯纳的透镜照片

where the only thing that changed in the photograph

照片里唯一能够变化的是

were the lips.

是他的嘴唇。

So when you oscillated that little piece

当你振荡那小小的

of lenticular sheet with his photograph,

一片透镜时，

it would be in lip sync

他就通过零带宽(Zero bandwidth)

with zero bandwidth.

进行同步

It was a zero-bandwidth teleconferencing system

这是当时零带宽

at the time.

的一个远程会议系统。

So this was the Media Lab's —

这是我们的媒体实验室，

this is what we said we'd do,

这也是我们说的所要做的，

that the world of computers, publishing,

电脑，出版等不同的领域

and so on would come together.

将会融合到一起。

Again, not generally accepted,

虽然再一次没有被广泛接受，

but very much part of TED in the early days.

但是早期TED大会的一个重要部分。

And this is really where we were headed.

这也是我们那时真正迈进的。

And that created the Media Lab.

也就是创建媒体实验室的初衷。

One of the things about age

关于年代

is that I can tell you with great confidence,

我可以自信的告诉你

I've been to the future.

我去过未来。

I've been there, actually, many times.

实际上我去过那里很多次。

And the reason I say that is,

我这样说的原因是

how many times in my life have I said,

我在一生中说过太多

"Oh, in 10 years, this will happen,"

“哦，在 10 年内，这个会成为现实的，”

and then 10 years comes.

十年过去后。

And then you say, "Oh, in five years, this will happen."

然后你说：“哦，在 5 年内这会成为现实的。”

And then five years comes.

五年又过去了。

So I say this a little bit with having felt

我这样说是因为我稍稍感到

that I'd been there a number of times,

我已经去过那里几次了，

and one of the things that is most quoted

我所说的

that I've ever said

最频繁被人们所引用的是

is that computing is not about computers,

电脑计算不仅仅是关于电脑，

and that didn't quite get enough traction,

但那时没有引起人们的太多注意，

and then it started to.

但之后便开始了。

It started to because people caught on

它的开始是因为人们认识到

that the medium wasn't the message.

媒体不是信息。

And the reason I show this car

我向你展示这辆车

in actually a rather ugly slide

在这不美观的图片中

is just again to tell you the kind of story

是为了再次告诉你

that characterized a little bit of my life.

能够描述我生活的一个故事。

This is a student of mine

这是我的一个学生

who had done a Ph.D. called "Backseat Driver."

他完成了一个叫做“后座驾驶者”的博士任务。

It was in the early days of GPS,

那时是GPS初生的时代，

the car knew where it was,

车子知道其位置，

and it would give audio instructions

他回向驾驶者提出指令

to the driver, when to turn right, when to turn left and so on.

什么时候右转，或什么时候左转，等等。

Turns out, there are a lot of things

在那时

in those instructions that back in that period

很多那些指令

were pretty challenging,

否是非常具有挑战性的,

like what does it mean, take the next right?

比如：之后右转是代表什么意思？

Well, if you're coming up on a street,

如果你来到一个街口，

the next right's probably the one after,

下一个右转也许指的是再下一个右边，

and there are lots of issues,

这是有非常多问题的，

and the student did a wonderful thesis,

这个学生做了一个非常好的课题，

and the MIT patent office said "Don't patent it.

然而 MIT 的专利处说：“不要申请这项专利。

It'll never be accepted.

他永远不会通过。

The liabilities are too large.

因为设计责任会很大。

There will be insurance issues.

会有保险问题。

Don't patent it."

不要申请专利。“

So we didn't,

我们便没有申请，

but it shows you how people, again, at times,

这再一次展示了人们

don't really look at what's happening.

看不清眼前正在发生的事。

Some work, and I'll just go through these very quickly,

有不少事可以说，我在这里快速的过一下，

a lot of sensory stuff.

有很多比较敏感的话题。

You might recognize a young Yo-Yo Ma

你可能认出年轻的马友友（大提琴演奏家）

and tracking his body for playing

并跟踪他身体

the cello or the hypercello.

演奏提琴的动作。

These fellows literally walked around like that at the time.

那些人在那时候像是这样走路的。

It's now a little bit more discreet

现在便变得有些

and more commonplace.

松散和正常了。

And then there are at least three heroes

现在我想想你们介绍

I want to quickly mention.

三位英雄。

Marvin Minsky, who taught me a lot

马文·明斯基，他教了我很多

about common sense,

关于常识的知识，

and I will talk briefly about Muriel Cooper,

我再来简单介绍一下穆里尔·库珀，

who was very important to Ricky Wurman

她对瑞奇·吴曼和 TED 都很重要

and to TED, and in fact, when she got onstage,

而且事实上当她上舞台时

she said, the first thing she said was,

她说的第一句话是

"I introduced Ricky to Nicky."

”我向尼基介绍瑞奇。“

And nobody calls me Nicky

从未有人叫过我尼基，

and nobody calls Richard Ricky,

也没有人把理查德叫做瑞奇，

so nobody knew who she was talking about.

所以人们都不知道她在说什么。

And then, of course, Seymour Papert,

然后，西摩·帕尔特

who is the person who said,

那个说过

"You can't think about thinking

“你不能去思考什么是思考，

unless you think about thinking about something."

除非你想去思考某个事情。“的人。

And that's actually — you can unpack that later.

事实上待会你就明白什么意思了。

It's a pretty profound statement.

这是一个相当深奥的说法。

I'm showing some slides

我正在展示的是一些

that were from TED 2,

来自 TED 2 的 ppt，

a little silly as slides, perhaps.

看起来也许有些傻。

Then I felt television really was about displays.

那时我真的感觉电视就是关于屏幕。

Again, now we're past TED 1,

现在是在 TED 1 之后，

but just around the time of TED 2,

在 TED 2 发生前后，

and what I'd like to mention here is,

我想要提到的是，

even though you could imagine

即使你可以想象

intelligence in the device,

设备里的智能，

I look today at some of the work

现在我看看

being done about the Internet of Things,

互联网上的东西，

and I think it's kind of tragically pathetic,

我觉得真的是非常悲剧，

because what has happened is people take

因为正在发生的是

the oven panel and put it on your cell phone,

人们将烤箱面板放到了手机上，

or the door key onto your cell phone,

或是将要是放到了手机上，

just taking it and bringing it to you,

直接把它带给你，

and in fact that's actually what you don't want.

但事实上那不是你们想要的。

You want to put a chicken in the oven,

当你想把一只鸡放在烤箱里时，

and the oven says, "Aha, it's a chicken,"

烤箱说：”啊哈，这是只鸡。“

and it cooks the chicken.

然后便开始烹饪。

"Oh, it's cooking the chicken for Nicholas,

”哦，他在为尼古拉斯烧鸡，

and he likes it this way and that way."

他喜欢这样那样的烹调方式。“

So the intelligence, instead of being in the device,

这样一来我们现在开始将智能，

we have started today

并非实体的存在物

to move it back onto the cell phone

移回到手机上

or closer to the user,

和使用者更近，

not a particularly enlightened view

但这并不是一个互联网内

of the Internet of Things.

非有启发性的东西。

Television, again, television what I said today,

电视，我今天所说的电视

that was back in 1990,

那是在1990年的时候，

and the television of tomorrow

而未来的电视

would look something like that.

可能会像是这样。

Again, people, but they laughed cynically,

然而那时人们讽刺的笑了

they didn't laugh with much appreciation.

不带任何的欣赏。

Telecommunications in the 1990s,

在 20 世纪 90 年代，

George Gilder decided that he would call this diagram

乔治 吉尔德决定叫这个示意图为

the Negroponte switch.

内格罗蓬特开关。

I'm probably much less famous than George,

也许我远没有乔治有名，

so when he called it the Negroponte switch, it stuck,

所以当他把这个叫做内格罗蓬特开关时，就没有什么变动了，

but the idea of things that came in the ground

但是这东西的主意

would go in the air and stuff in the air

在地上和空中

would go into the ground

漂浮不定

has played itself out.

已经将自己展示出来了。

That is the original slide from that year,

这是当年的原始PPT，

and it has worked in lockstep obedience.

而且一直都因循守旧地运行着。

We started Wired magazine.

我们发行了《千奇百怪》杂志。

Some people, I remember we shared

有些和我曾一起

the reception desk periodically,

在招待会上定期坐一桌的人

and some parent called up irate that his son

和一些家长风怒的表达他的儿子

had given up Sports Illustrated

已经不再订阅体育画报

to subscribe for Wired,

而改定了《千奇百怪》。

and he said, "Are you some porno magazine or something?"

他还说：“你们这是色情书刊还是什么鬼玩意？“

and couldn't understand why his son

非常不理解为什么

would be interested in Wired, at any rate.

他的儿子会对《千奇百怪》感兴趣。

I will go through this a little quicker.

我会快一些的把这事描述一下。

This is my favorite, 1995,

这是我最喜欢的，在 1995 年，

back page of Newsweek magazine.

新闻周刊杂志的背面。

Okay. Read it. (Laughter)

好的。读一下它。（笑声）

["Nicholas Negroponte, director of the MIT Media Lab, predicts that we'll soon buy books and newspapers straight over the Internet. Uh, sure." —Clifford Stoll, Newsweek, 1995]

MIT 媒体实验室的领导人尼古拉斯 内格罗蓬特预测：“人们很快就会在互联网上购买书籍和报纸了。好啊，可以啊 （胆子不小，你尽敢这样说）。”

You must admit that gives you,

你必须得承认这给了你，

at least it gives me pleasure

当别人说你比错误一的时候

when somebody says how dead wrong you are.

至少这给了我快感。

"Being Digital" came out.

“数字化”推出了。

For me, it gave me an opportunity

对于我来说，这给了我机会

to be more in the trade press

在印刷行业发展

and get this out to the public,

并将这带入社会，

and it also allowed us to build the new Media Lab,

同事还让我们建造了新的媒体实验室，

which if you haven't been to, visit,

如果你还没去过，你可以去参观一下，

because it's a beautiful piece of architecture

因为它除了是一个工作的好地方

aside from being a wonderful place to work.

还是一个非常美丽的建筑物。

So these are the things we were saying in those TEDs.

这些便是我们在之前的 TED 所讨论的。

[Today, multimedia is a desktop or living room experience, because the apparatus is so clunky. This will change dramatically with small, bright, thin, high-resolution displays. — 1995]

【今天，多媒体是一个在桌面和起居室中的体验，因为那些设备非常粗笨。将来会被更加小而智能的而取代。】

We came to them.

我来到它们那里。

I looked forward to it every year.

我每年都看看它。

It was the party that Ricky Wurman never had

那是对瑞奇 沃尔曼一个从意义上来说

in the sense that he invited many of his old friends,

从未有过的聚会

including myself.

而他在聚会中邀请了很多他的老朋友，还包括我。

And then something for me changed

之后我

pretty profoundly.

发生了一个潜在的改变。

I became more involved with computers and learning

我和电脑的接触和学习更多了

and influenced by Seymour,

也被西摩深刻的影响，

but particularly looking at learning

但是主要专注于

as something that is best approximated

以电脑编程的方式

by computer programming.

去学习。

When you write a computer program,

当你编程时，

you've got to not just list things out

你不能只将东西列出来

and sort of take an algorithm

大概的去用一种算法

and translate it into a set of instructions,

或是仅仅将其翻译成一套教程，

but when there's a bug, and all programs have bugs,

但是当程序有漏洞时（所有的程序都有漏洞），

you've got to de-bug it.

你得去消除漏洞。

You've got to go in, change it,

你得进入程序中，改编，

and then re-execute,

并重新执行，

and you iterate,

然后你进行迭代

and that iteration is really

而且那个迭代的过程

a very, very good approximation of learning.

是一个非常好的类似学习。

So that led to my own work with Seymour

那也让我在像是柬埔寨的地方

in places like Cambodia

开始我与西摩的工作

and the starting of One Laptop per Child.

并启动了一个孩子一台笔记本电脑的项目。

Enough TED Talks on One Laptop per Child,

关于此项目的 TED 演讲有足够多，

so I'll go through it very fast,

我就快速地过一下，

but it did give us the chance

但是我们确实获得了

to do something at a relatively large scale

在一个较大的范围上

in the area of learning, development and computing.

为学习，发展和电脑计算做些贡献的机会。

Very few people know that One Laptop per Child

很少有人知道一个孩子一台笔记本电脑

was a $1 billion project,

是一个价值 10 亿美元的项目，

and it was, at least over the seven years I ran it,

至少有七年我都置身于该项目，

but even more important, the World Bank

但更重要的是，

contributed zero, USAID zero.

世界银行和 USAID 都作出零贡献。

It was mostly the countries using their own treasuries,

大多数都是国家使用自己国库资金

which is very interesting,

这是非常有趣的，

at least to me it was very interesting

至少对我未来要做的事

in terms of what I plan to do next.

来说非常有趣。

So these are the various places it happened.

这些是那些发生了这些事的地方。

I then tried an experiment,

我接着尝试了一个实验，

and the experiment happened in Ethiopia.

试验地点在埃塞俄比亚。

And here's the experiment.

这里边是这个实验。

The experiment is,

实验是这样的，

can learning happen where there are no schools.

没有学校的地方人们可以学习么。

And we dropped off tablets

我们便发放平板电脑

with no instructions

但不给出使用说明

and let the children figure it out.

让孩子们自己搞明白怎么用。

And in a short period of time,

在很短的一段时间内，

they not only

他们不仅知道如何开机，而且 5 五天内

turned them on and were using 50 apps per child

每个孩子至少

within five days,

使用了 50 个应用程，

they were singing "ABC" songs within two weeks,

在两周内他们便学会了唱 ”ABC“，

but they hacked Android within six months.

但是他们花了 6 个月破解了安卓系统。

And so that seemed sufficiently interesting.

这些事足够有趣。

This is perhaps the best picture I have.

这也许是我手头上最好的照片。

The kid on your right

你们右手的孩子

has sort of nominated himself as teacher.

把他自己任命为了老师。

Look at the kid on the left, and so on.

看左手边的孩子，等等。

There are no adults involved in this at all.

没有任何成年人的参与。

So I said, well can we do this

我问：“我们可以

at a larger scale?

大规模地进行这个实验么？”

And what is it that's missing?

但又缺少了什么呢？

The kids are giving a press conference at this point,

孩子们这个时候正在开发布会了，

and sort of writing in the dirt.

貌似在土中鞋子。

And the answer is, what is missing?

答案是：缺少了什么？

And I'm going to skip over my prediction, actually,

我要跳过我的预测，

because I'm running out of time,

因为我时间不够了，

and here's the question, is what's going to happen?

问题是：未来会发生什么呢?

I think the challenge

我认为未来的挑战是

is to connect the last billion people,

区连接剩下的 10 亿人，

and connecting the last billion

将剩下 10 亿连接起来

is very different than connecting the next billion,

和连接下 10 亿个是不一样的，

and the reason it's different

原因是不同的

is that the next billion

下个 10 亿

are sort of low-hanging fruit,

像是触手可及的水果，

but the last billion are rural.

但是那剩下的 10 亿则是在乡村。

Being rural and being poor

乡村和平穷

are very different.

是非常不同的。

Poverty tends to be created by our society,

平穷是由社会所创造出的，

and the people in that community are not poor

但是同样的方式下

in the same way at all.

那个社区里的人们是一点都不穷的。

They may be primitive,

他们也许很原始，

but the way to approach it and to connect them,

但是靠近和连接它们的方式

the history of One Laptop per Child,

一个孩子一台笔记本电脑的项目的历史，

and the experiment in Ethiopia,

以及在埃塞俄比亚的实验，

lead me to believe that we can in fact

让我相信

do this in a very short period of time.

我们可以在很短的时间内实现。

And so my plan,

所以我的计划

and unfortunately I haven't been able

很不幸，此时此刻我不能

to get my partners at this point

找我的伙伴

to let me announce them,

去让我在这里介绍他们，

but is to do this with a stationary satellite.

但是将用一个同步卫星实现这件事。

There are many reasons

这是有很多原因的，

that stationary satellites aren't the best things,

同步卫星不是最佳的选择，

but there are a lot of reasons why they are,

但是有很多原因可以解释它们为什么最优，

and for two billion dollars,

而且 20 亿美元

you can connect a lot more than 100 million people,

我们可以连接远超过 1 亿人，

but the reason I picked two,

第二个理由

and I will leave this as my last slide,

我把它留到最后再说，

is two billion dollars

20 亿美元

is what we were spending

是我们在阿富汗

in Afghanistan

每周耗费的

every week.

金额。

So surely if we can connect

所以如果我们可以

Africa and the last billion people

用那样的开销

for numbers like that,

将非洲和那剩下的 10 亿人连接起来

we should be doing it.

我们应该已经在做这件事情了。

Thank you very much.

非常好感谢。

(Applause)

（掌声）

Chris Anderson: Stay up there. Stay up there.

克里斯·安德森：先别走，等一会。

NN: You're going to give me extra time?

尼葛洛庞帝：你要给我读一点时间么？

CA: No. That was wickedly clever, wickedly clever.

克里斯·安德森：那真是说的太好了，太好了。

You gamed it beautifully.

你的挑战的非常漂亮。

Nicholas, what is your prediction?

尼葛洛庞帝，你对未来的预测是什么？

(Laughter)

（笑声）

NN: Thank you for asking.

尼葛洛庞帝：谢谢你问我。

I'll tell you what my prediction is,

我马上告诉你我的预测是什么，

and my prediction, and this is a prediction,

这是我的预测

because it'll be 30 years. I won't be here.

因为这是未来 30 年的预测，那时我不会在这里了。

But one of the things about learning how to read,

但是有一点关于学习如何阅读

we have been doing a lot of consuming

我们一直都在用双眼

of information going through our eyes,

大量社区信息，

and so that may be a very inefficient channel.

而且那是个非常低效的方法。

So my prediction is that we are going to ingest information

所以我的预测是我们将会摄取信息。

You're going to swallow a pill and know English.

你们会吃下一个药丸便知道如何说英语。

You're going to swallow a pill and know Shakespeare.

你将会吃下一个药丸便通晓莎士比亚。

And the way to do it is through the bloodstream.

而实现它的方法是用过血流。

So once it's in your bloodstream,

一旦它进入到你的血液中，

it basically goes through it and gets into the brain,

它基本上就会到达大脑，

and when it knows that it's in the brain

当它知道他到达了大脑

in the different pieces,

在不同的地方，

it deposits it in the right places.

它便在正确的地方注入。

So it's ingesting.

所以这是摄取。

CA: Have you been hanging out with Ray Kurzweil by any chance?

克里斯·安德森：你有和雷库兹威尔聊过么？

NN: No, but I've been hanging around with Ed Boyden

尼葛洛庞帝：没有，但是我经常和埃德宝鼎聊天

and hanging around with one of the speakers

还有这里的一位演讲者之一

who is here, Hugh Herr,

休·赫尔，

and there are a number of people.

有很多人。

This isn't quite as far-fetched,

对于未来的 30 年，

so 30 years from now.

这不是很牵强。

CA: We will check it out.

克里斯·安德森：我们会亲眼鉴识的。

We're going to be back and we're going to play this clip 30 years from now,

我们将会倒退，30 年后再放出这个视频

and then all eat the red pill.

你们所有都吃着红色药丸。

Well thank you for that.

好的谢谢你的好意。

Nicholas Negroponte.

尼葛洛庞帝

NN: Thank you.

谢谢

(Applause)

(掌声)