A 30-year history of the future | Nicholas Negroponte

譯者: Fred Lee 審譯者: Qingqing Mao

(Video) Nicholas Negroponte: Can we switch to the video disc,

（影片）尼可拉斯·尼葛洛龐帝： 勞駕幫我

which is in play mode?

播放下錄影帶。

I'm really interested in how you put people and computers together.

我對人機對話模式情有獨鍾。

We will be using the TV screens or their equivalents

將來，人們會使用電視螢幕

for electronic books of the future.

或類似設備來閱讀電子書。

(Music, crosstalk)

（音樂，串聲）

Very interested in touch-sensitive displays,

我對觸控式螢幕深感興趣。

high-tech, high-touch, not having to pick up your fingers to use them.

高科技，高觸感，指尖操控。

There is another way where computers

另一種人機互動的方式是

touch people: wearing, physically wearing.

把電腦像衣服那樣穿在身上。

Suddenly on September 11th,

突然，在9月11號這一天，

the world got bigger.

眼前的世界豁然開闊。

NN: Thank you. (Applause)

尼可拉斯·尼葛洛龐帝: 謝謝（掌聲）

Thank you.

謝謝。

When I was asked to do this,

我受邀參加這次TED演講時，

I was also asked to look at all 14 TED Talks

他們讓我重新回顧了

that I had given,

我在不同年代

chronologically.

先後發表的14次TED演講。

The first one was actually two hours.

第一次實際講了2小時，

The second one was an hour,

第二次1小時，

and then they became half hours,

之後時間縮短到半小時。

and all I noticed was my bald spot getting bigger.

我發現每來一次TED， 我的頭髮就掉了不少。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

Imagine seeing your life, 30 years of it, go by,

暮然回首，30年的人生，就這樣悄然流逝。

and it was, to say the least,

至少對我來講，

for me, quite a shocking experience.

這太不可思議了。

So what I'm going to do in my time

所以這次重回TED講臺，

is try and share with you what happened

我會盡我所能，與大家分享

during the 30 years,

這30年裡發生的事情。

and then also make a prediction,

接著，我還會再做一次預測，

and then tell you a little bit

然後告訴你們

about what I'm doing next.

我接下來的工作計畫。

And I put on a slide

這張幻燈片總結了

where TED 1 happened in my life.

我第一次TED演講的主要內容。

And it's rather important

那次演講相當重要，

because I had done 15 years of research before it,

因為在此之前，我做了15年的潛心研究。

so I had a backlog, so it was easy.

所以我有備而來，輕裝上陣。

It's not that I was Fidel Castro

我不是菲德爾·卡斯楚（古巴領導人），

and I could talk for two hours,

可以滔滔不絕地講2個小時，

or Bucky Fuller.

也沒有布基·富勒 （新未來主義建築師）的遠見卓識，

I had 15 years of stuff,

但我有15年的知識積累，

and the Media Lab was about to start.

當時正在籌建媒體實驗室，

So that was easy.

所以那次演講毫不費力。

But there are a couple of things

不過，關於那個年代，

about that period

還有當時

and about what happened that are

發生的事情，

有幾點非常重要。

really quite important.

One is that

第一點是

it was a period when computers

那個年代的電腦

weren't yet for people.

不是為人而開發的。

And the other thing that sort of happened

另一點

在當時比較盛行，

during that time is that

we were considered sissy computer scientists.

我們被認為是無用的電腦科學家。

We weren't considered the real thing.

沒人拿我們當回事。

So what I'm going to show you is, in retrospect,

所以，回想過去的經歷，

a lot more interesting and a lot more accepted

我接下來展示的內容

than it was at the time.

比當時更有趣，更廣為接受。

So I'm going to characterize the years

我要概括一下這些年的經歷，

and I'm even going to go back

甚至回過頭來重新審視

to some very early work of mine,

一些非常早期的研究工作。

and this was the kind of stuff I was doing in the '60s:

這是我在上世紀 60年代研究的裝置，

very direct manipulation,

直接點擊操作，

very influenced as I studied architecture

就像我在學習建築的時候一樣，

by the architect Moshe Safdie,

我從建築師薩夫迪的理念中吸取了靈感。

and you can see that we even built robotic things

你可以看到我們甚至建造了機器人裝置，

that could build habitat-like structures.

它們能夠搭建“棲息地式”結構。

And this for me was

對於我來講，

not yet the Media Lab,

這還不是媒體實驗室，

but was the beginning of what I'll call

而是我要稱之為

sensory computing,

“感覺計算”的雛形。

and I pick fingers

我之所以想到用手指來操控，

partly because everybody thought it was ridiculous.

部分是因為每個人 都覺得這個想法很荒謬。

Papers were published

當時發表了很多文章，

about how stupid it was to use fingers.

指出手指操作有多愚蠢。

Three reasons: One was they were low-resolution.

他們列舉了三個原因，首先是解析度低。

The other is your hand would occlude

其次，手會遮擋視線，

what you wanted to see,

讓你看不到細節。

and the third, which was the winner,

最後，他們使出的“殺手鐧”是

was that your fingers would get the screen dirty,

手指會弄髒螢幕。

and hence, fingers would never be

所以，手指絕對不會

a device that you'd use.

成為操作設備。

And this was a device we built in the '70s,

這台裝置誕生於上世紀70年代，

which has never even been picked up.

當時甚至無人問津。

It's not just touch sensitive,

它不僅觸覺敏感，

it's pressure sensitive.

而且壓力敏感。

(Video) Voice: Put a yellow circle there.

（影片）聲音：在那兒畫一個黃色圓圈。

NN: Later work, and again this was before TED 1 —

尼可拉斯·尼葛洛龐帝: 這是後期的工作，同樣發生在 TED 1 之前——

(Video) Voice: Move that west of the diamond.

（影片）聲音：把它移動到菱形的西面。

Create a large green circle there.

在那兒畫一個綠色的大圓圈。

Man: Aw, shit.

影片中的人：喔，該死！

NN: — was to sort of do interface concurrently,

尼可拉斯·尼葛洛龐帝: ——這是在進行同步交互。

so when you talked and you pointed

一邊說話，一邊用手比劃。

and you had, if you will,

只要你願意，

multiple channels.

還可以有多種交互管道。

Entebbe happened.

後來發生了恩德培劫機事件。

1976, Air France was hijacked,

1976年，一架法航客機

taken to Entebbe,

被劫持到恩德培。

and the Israelis not only did an extraordinary rescue,

以色列人完成了出色的營救行動。

they did it partly because they had practiced

他们成功的部分原因是 利用了機場的物理模型，

on a physical model of the airport,

進行過解救人質演練。

because they had built the airport,

因為機場是他們修建的，

so they built a model in the desert,

所以他們在沙漠中製作了一個模型。

and when they arrived at Entebbe,

在到達恩德培之後，

they knew where to go because they had actually been there.

他們知道怎麼走， 因為他們實際上去過那裡。

The U.S. government asked some of us, '76,

1976年，美國政府詢問我們當中的一些人

if we could replicate that computationally,

是否能通過計算機來再現營救過程？

and of course somebody like myself says yes.

當然，我的一位同事說沒問題。

Immediately, you get a contract,

然後，我們立刻得到

Department of Defense,

一份來自國防部的合同。

and we built this truck and this rig.

我們建造了這輛卡車， 還有那個攝像頭裝置，

We did sort of a simulation,

憑藉當時的影像記錄，

because you had video discs,

完成了一次模擬營救。

and again, this is '76.

這同樣發生在1976年。

And then many years later,

經過很多年之後，

you get this truck,

當時的卡車變成了這樣，

and so you have Google Maps.

於是我們有了谷歌地圖。

Still people thought,

當時還是有人執意認為

no, that was not serious computer science,

那不是嚴肅的電腦科學。

and it was a man named Jerry Wiesner,

但有一個人的觀點卻截然相反，

who happened to be the president of MIT,

他就是傑利·威斯納，

who did think it was computer science.

當時恰巧是麻省理工學院 (MIT) 的院長。

And one of the keys for anybody

所以，要想在人生中

who wants to start something in life:

展露鋒芒，有所作為，

Make sure your president is part of it.

一定要拉你的老闆“入夥”。

So when I was doing the Media Lab,

所以我在創建媒體實驗室的時候，

it was like having a gorilla in the front seat.

就像是有個“大佬”在前面罩著。

If you were stopped for speeding

如果你因為超速而被截停，

and the officer looked in the window

警官從車窗看進來，

and saw who was in the passenger seat,

發現副駕駛位置坐著位“大佬”，

then, "Oh, continue on, sir."

他就會說“哦，先生，請繼續上路吧。”

And so we were able,

所以我們當時能夠大展身手。

and this is a cute, actually, device, parenthetically.

這個裝置十分精巧。

This was a lenticular photograph of Jerry Wiesner

這是一張傑利·威斯納的透鏡印刷照片，

where the only thing that changed in the photograph

照片中唯一改變的

were the lips.

就是嘴唇。

So when you oscillated that little piece

當你搖晃那片

of lenticular sheet with his photograph,

帶有照片的透鏡板時，

it would be in lip sync

你會看到照片中的嘴唇

with zero bandwidth.

以零頻寬同步。

It was a zero-bandwidth teleconferencing system

這就是當時的

at the time.

零頻寬遠端會議系統。

So this was the Media Lab's —

這就是媒體實驗室的概念圖，

this is what we said we'd do,

我們當時計畫建設的

that the world of computers, publishing,

集電腦、出版等

and so on would come together.

功能於一身的實驗室。

Again, not generally accepted,

同樣，它沒有得到普遍接受，

but very much part of TED in the early days.

但卻是早期 TED 的一部分。

And this is really where we were headed.

這正是我們追求的目標，

And that created the Media Lab.

引領我們創建了媒體實驗室。

One of the things about age

對於變老的問題，

is that I can tell you with great confidence,

我可以很自信的告訴你們，

I've been to the future.

我確實去過未來，

I've been there, actually, many times.

並且去過那裡不止一次。

And the reason I say that is,

我這麼說的原因是，

how many times in my life have I said,

我這一輩子似乎總在說：

"Oh, in 10 years, this will happen,"

“在未來10年這些都會實現。”

and then 10 years comes.

然後，10年過去了。

And then you say, "Oh, in five years, this will happen."

接著又會說“在未來5年這些都會實現。”

And then five years comes.

然後，5年過去了。

So I say this a little bit with having felt

我在做出這些預測的時候，

that I'd been there a number of times,

多少感覺自己曾經去過未來不止一次。

and one of the things that is most quoted

在我說過的所有預言中，

that I've ever said

被引用最多的就是

is that computing is not about computers,

“計算不再只和電腦有關，它關係到我們的生活。”

and that didn't quite get enough traction,

起初這句話並沒有引起廣泛關注，

and then it started to.

之後慢慢受到重視。

It started to because people caught on

人們開始關注這句話

that the medium wasn't the message.

是因為他們意識到，媒體並不是資訊。

And the reason I show this car

這裡所展示的這輛車，

in actually a rather ugly slide

的確有點土，缺乏美感。

is just again to tell you the kind of story

展示它是因為我想通過它 跟大家再分享一個

that characterized a little bit of my life.

對我的人生多少有點啟發的故事。

This is a student of mine

我有一個博士研究生，

who had done a Ph.D. called "Backseat Driver."

他在全球定位系統GPS發明初期，

It was in the early days of GPS,

設計了一個名為“後座司機”的系統，

the car knew where it was,

能夠為駕駛員提供自動導向，

and it would give audio instructions

還會向駕駛員發出語音指令，

to the driver, when to turn right, when to turn left and so on.

比如，何時右轉，何時左轉。

Turns out, there are a lot of things

結果我們發現，

in those instructions that back in that period

當時設計的指令

were pretty challenging,

有些很難執行。

like what does it mean, take the next right?

比如說 “下一路口右轉”究竟是什麼意思？

Well, if you're coming up on a street,

如果你駕車經過一條街道，

the next right's probably the one after,

下一個右轉可能是下下個路口。

and there are lots of issues,

這裡面包含很多技術難題。

and the student did a wonderful thesis,

這名學生的論文寫得很棒。

and the MIT patent office said "Don't patent it.

但 MIT 專利辦公室卻說“別為它申請專利。

It'll never be accepted.

這肯定行不通。

The liabilities are too large.

責任太大，風險太高。

There will be insurance issues.

還有保險問題。

Don't patent it."

別為它申請專利。”

So we didn't,

所以我們放棄了。

but it shows you how people, again, at times,

這件事再一次表明，

don't really look at what's happening.

人們有時對周邊 正在發生的事情視若無睹。

Some work, and I'll just go through these very quickly,

下面，我準備快速回顧一下 過去的一些研究工作。

a lot of sensory stuff.

這裡有很多感測器元件。

You might recognize a young Yo-Yo Ma

你也許認得出年輕時候的馬友友。

and tracking his body for playing

我們利用感測器元件跟蹤

the cello or the hypercello.

他演奏大提琴時的肢體動作。

These fellows literally walked around like that at the time.

當年，這幫傢夥就穿著這副行頭到處晃悠。

It's now a little bit more discreet

現在稍微有所收斂，

and more commonplace.

並且更司空見慣了。

And then there are at least three heroes

在這裡，至少有三位傳奇人物

I want to quickly mention.

我想跟大家介紹一下。

Marvin Minsky, who taught me a lot

第一位是馬文·明斯基（“人工智慧之父”），

about common sense,

他教會了我很多常識性的東西。

and I will talk briefly about Muriel Cooper,

第二位是穆尼爾·庫伯（MIT出版社藝術總監），

who was very important to Ricky Wurman

他對於理查·沃爾曼（TED創始人）

and to TED, and in fact, when she got onstage,

以及 TED 的發展都至關重要。

she said, the first thing she said was,

當時她走上 TED 講臺，說的第一句話就是

"I introduced Ricky to Nicky."

“我把裡基介紹給了尼基。”

And nobody calls me Nicky

沒人叫我“尼基”，

and nobody calls Richard Ricky,

也沒人稱呼理查“裡基”，

so nobody knew who she was talking about.

所以大家都不知道她在說什麼。

And then, of course, Seymour Papert,

當然，還有西摩•·帕爾特（人工智慧先驅）。

who is the person who said,

他曾經說過這麼一句話：

"You can't think about thinking

“除非你意識到自己在思考，

unless you think about thinking about something."

否則你根本無法思考。”

And that's actually — you can unpack that later.

這句話大家可以稍後解讀，

It's a pretty profound statement.

確實非常深奧。

I'm showing some slides

現在大家看到的是

that were from TED 2,

TED 2 使用的一些幻燈片，

a little silly as slides, perhaps.

也許看上去有點不入潮流。

Then I felt television really was about displays.

那時候，我覺得電視機就是顯示器。

Again, now we're past TED 1,

我們經過了 TED 1，

but just around the time of TED 2,

差不多到了 TED 2 的時代。

and what I'd like to mention here is,

在這裡，我想說的是——

even though you could imagine

即使你能夠想像

intelligence in the device,

設備中使用的智慧技術——

I look today at some of the work

今天，我大致瞭解了一下

being done about the Internet of Things,

最近有關物聯網的研究。

and I think it's kind of tragically pathetic,

我覺得這些研究非常悲哀，

because what has happened is people take

因為現實情況是這樣的：

the oven panel and put it on your cell phone,

有人拿來烤箱控制面板，

or the door key onto your cell phone,

或門鑰匙，然後安裝到你的手機上。

just taking it and bringing it to you,

只是拿過來給你裝上。

and in fact that's actually what you don't want.

但你其實並不需要。

You want to put a chicken in the oven,

你需要的是讓你的烤箱變得智慧化。

and the oven says, "Aha, it's a chicken,"

比方說，你把一隻雞放進烤箱，

and it cooks the chicken.

它就會自動識別出這是一隻雞，

"Oh, it's cooking the chicken for Nicholas,

知道這是為尼可拉斯烹飪的，

and he likes it this way and that way."

知道尼古拉斯喜歡這樣和那樣的烹調方式。

So the intelligence, instead of being in the device,

所以，智慧技術原本並不在設備中。

we have started today

今天我們開始

to move it back onto the cell phone

讓它重新回到手機上，

or closer to the user,

或更接近用戶。

not a particularly enlightened view

這不是有關物聯網

of the Internet of Things.

特別具有啟發性的觀點。

Television, again, television what I said today,

關於電視機，今天我講的是

that was back in 1990,

上世紀90年代的電視機。

and the television of tomorrow

而未來的電視機

would look something like that.

看上去是這樣的。

Again, people, but they laughed cynically,

又有人發出冷笑，

they didn't laugh with much appreciation.

他們的笑聲沒有流露出讚賞之情。

Telecommunications in the 1990s,

上世紀90年代的電信業，

George Gilder decided that he would call this diagram

喬治·吉爾德決定把這張圖稱為

the Negroponte switch.

“尼葛洛龐帝式轉換”。

I'm probably much less famous than George,

喬治聲名顯赫，我恐怕望塵莫及，

so when he called it the Negroponte switch, it stuck,

所以當喬治作出這個決定時，我有點受寵若驚。

but the idea of things that came in the ground

不過，當時我的一個預測——

would go in the air and stuff in the air

“今天在空中傳輸的，明天將轉入地下，

would go into the ground

而在地下傳輸的將轉到空中”

has played itself out.

終於慢慢變為了現實。

That is the original slide from that year,

這是那一年的原始幻燈片，

and it has worked in lockstep obedience.

與現實情況如出一轍。

We started Wired magazine.

我們創辦了《連線》雜誌。

Some people, I remember we shared

我記得當時我們會定期

the reception desk periodically,

輪流當接待員。

and some parent called up irate that his son

一次，有位家長怒氣衝衝地打電話來

had given up Sports Illustrated

說他的兒子放棄了《體育畫報》，

to subscribe for Wired,

開始訂閱《連線》。

and he said, "Are you some porno magazine or something?"

他質問我們：“你們這本雜誌是黃書嗎？”

and couldn't understand why his son

無論如何，他都無法理解

would be interested in Wired, at any rate.

自己的兒子會對《連線》感興趣。

I will go through this a little quicker.

我要稍微加快一點兒速度。

This is my favorite, 1995,

這是我的最愛——

back page of Newsweek magazine.

1995年《新聞週刊》的封底。

Okay. Read it. (Laughter)

好吧，讀一下。（笑聲）

["Nicholas Negroponte, director of the MIT Media Lab, predicts that we'll soon buy books and newspapers straight over the Internet. Uh, sure." —Clifford Stoll, Newsweek, 1995]

["MIT媒體實驗室主任尼可拉斯·尼葛洛龐帝預測：人們很快就會直接通過網際網路購買書籍和報紙。呃，走著瞧吧。”—克利夫·斯托爾，《新聞週刊》，1995年]

You must admit that gives you,

有一點你必須承認，

at least it gives me pleasure

當有人說你大錯特錯時，

when somebody says how dead wrong you are.

你更應該全情投入，至少我會如此。

"Being Digital" came out.

《數位化生存》問世了。

For me, it gave me an opportunity

對我來講，這本書讓我有機會

to be more in the trade press

更多地涉足商業新聞媒體，

and get this out to the public,

並把它推廣到普通大眾。

and it also allowed us to build the new Media Lab,

同時，也讓我們建成了新的媒體實驗室。

which if you haven't been to, visit,

如果你還沒去過，歡迎來參觀。

because it's a beautiful piece of architecture

這裡不僅是工作的樂園，

aside from being a wonderful place to work.

建築設計也是美不勝收。

So these are the things we were saying in those TEDs.

這些是我們在 TED 演講中提到過的東西。

[Today, multimedia is a desktop or living room experience, because the apparatus is so clunky. This will change dramatically with small, bright, thin, high-resolution displays. — 1995]

[今天，由於多媒體設備仍很笨重，我們多半是在書房或起居室中操作多媒體。一旦我們有了小而薄、明亮、靈活、解析度高的顯示器以後，情況就會完全改觀。—1995年]

We came to them.

我們的夢想最終實現了。

I looked forward to it every year.

我每年都在期待這一天的到來。

It was the party that Ricky Wurman never had

這是一次理查·沃爾曼終生難忘的聚會，

in the sense that he invited many of his old friends,

他邀請了許多老朋友，

including myself.

其中也包括我。

And then something for me changed

後來我自己的工作重心

pretty profoundly.

發生了很大的轉變。

I became more involved with computers and learning

我開始投入到電腦與學習的研究中，

and influenced by Seymour,

並且深受西摩的影響。

but particularly looking at learning

在我看來，

as something that is best approximated

學習過程與電腦程式設計

by computer programming.

最為相近。

When you write a computer program,

在編寫電腦程式時，

you've got to not just list things out

你並不只是列出清單，

and sort of take an algorithm

然後採用一種演算法，

and translate it into a set of instructions,

把清單轉化為一組指令。

but when there's a bug, and all programs have bugs,

你還會碰到程式漏洞， 所有程式都有漏洞，

you've got to de-bug it.

你必須想辦法解決。

You've got to go in, change it,

你必須進入並更改程式，

and then re-execute,

然後重新執行。

and you iterate,

如此循環往復。

and that iteration is really

這一循環過程

a very, very good approximation of learning.

與學習過程有異曲同工之處。

So that led to my own work with Seymour

正是基於這一認識，我和西摩一起

in places like Cambodia

在柬埔寨等地展開了獨立研究，

and the starting of One Laptop per Child.

開始啟動“每個孩子一台筆記本”計畫。

Enough TED Talks on One Laptop per Child,

有關這項計畫的 TED 演講不勝枚舉，

so I'll go through it very fast,

所以我會簡單地一語帶過。

but it did give us the chance

這項計畫確實讓我們有機會

to do something at a relatively large scale

在更廣的範圍內，

in the area of learning, development and computing.

從事學習、發展與計算領域的研究。

Very few people know that One Laptop per Child

很少有人知道，“每個孩子一台筆記本”計畫

was a $1 billion project,

是一個10億美元的專案。

and it was, at least over the seven years I ran it,

至少在我運作該項目的七年裡， 已經耗資10億美元。

but even more important, the World Bank

更重要的是，世界銀行分文未出，

contributed zero, USAID zero.

我們也分文未收 美國國際開發署的資金。

It was mostly the countries using their own treasuries,

資金主要是由實施計畫的國家 通過自己的國債籌集而得。

which is very interesting,

這是非常有趣的現象。

at least to me it was very interesting

至少從我下一步的工作計畫來看，

in terms of what I plan to do next.

我發現這一點很有趣。

So these are the various places it happened.

這就是我們實施計畫的地方。

I then tried an experiment,

我當時嘗試做了一個實驗。

and the experiment happened in Ethiopia.

實驗地點在衣索比亞。

And here's the experiment.

這就是那次實驗。

The experiment is,

該實驗的目的是研究

can learning happen where there are no schools.

在沒有學校的地方， 能否發生學習行為？

And we dropped off tablets

我們向孩子們派發了一些筆記型電腦，

with no instructions

但沒有附帶說明書，

and let the children figure it out.

讓他們自己摸索。

And in a short period of time,

在很短的時間裡，

they not only

孩子們不僅

turned them on and were using 50 apps per child

學會了開機，並在短短5天內

within five days,

每個孩子至少使用了50個應用程式，

they were singing "ABC" songs within two weeks,

兩周內學會唱字母歌，

but they hacked Android within six months.

而且六個月內成功入侵了安卓系統。

And so that seemed sufficiently interesting.

這個過程太奇妙了。

This is perhaps the best picture I have.

這可能是我擁有的最好的一張照片。

The kid on your right

右面那個孩子

has sort of nominated himself as teacher.

好像“自封”為老師。

Look at the kid on the left, and so on.

看看左面那個孩子，還有其他孩子。

There are no adults involved in this at all.

全程沒有任何成年人介入。

So I said, well can we do this

所以我說，我們能否

at a larger scale?

擴大計畫的範圍？

And what is it that's missing?

這裡面還缺少什麼？

The kids are giving a press conference at this point,

此時，孩子們在召開新聞發佈會，

and sort of writing in the dirt.

好像在泥裡寫著什麼。

And the answer is, what is missing?

問題是，還缺少什麼？

And I'm going to skip over my prediction, actually,

看來我要略過預測了，

because I'm running out of time,

因為時間快要到了。

and here's the question, is what's going to happen?

最後的問題是，接下來會發生什麼？

I think the challenge

我認為最大的挑戰是——

is to connect the last billion people,

讓世界上最後10億人接觸到網際網路。

and connecting the last billion

“連接最後十億人”

is very different than connecting the next billion,

與“連接下一個十億人” 是兩個完全不同的概念。

and the reason it's different

不同的原因在於，

is that the next billion

下一個十億人

are sort of low-hanging fruit,

是容易實現的目標。

but the last billion are rural.

而最後十億人卻身處“荒蠻之地”。

Being rural and being poor

荒蠻與貧窮

are very different.

是兩種完全不同的狀態。

Poverty tends to be created by our society,

我們的社會容易造成貧窮，

and the people in that community are not poor

而且貧窮階層的人們

in the same way at all.

境遇也各不相同。

They may be primitive,

這最後10億人也許出身荒蠻，

but the way to approach it and to connect them,

但接近和連接他們的方式，

the history of One Laptop per Child,

“每個孩子一台筆記本”計畫的成果，

and the experiment in Ethiopia,

還有衣索比亞的實驗，

lead me to believe that we can in fact

讓我相信我們實際上

do this in a very short period of time.

能夠在很短的時間裡付諸行動。

And so my plan,

所以我的計畫——

and unfortunately I haven't been able

很遺憾，我現在沒辦法

to get my partners at this point

找到合作夥伴，

to let me announce them,

讓我宣佈這些計畫——

but is to do this with a stationary satellite.

我的計畫是利用同步軌道衛星 連接最後10億人。

There are many reasons

在很多方面，

that stationary satellites aren't the best things,

同步軌道衛星不是最好的手段。

but there are a lot of reasons why they are,

但是，同步軌道衛星也有很多優勢。

and for two billion dollars,

花費兩億美元

you can connect a lot more than 100 million people,

就可以連接遠超1億人。

but the reason I picked two,

我選擇“2億”這個數字的原因是——

and I will leave this as my last slide,

這是最後一張幻燈片。

is two billion dollars

雖然2億美元聽上去很多，

is what we were spending

但其實這是我們在

in Afghanistan

阿富汗

every week.

一週的開銷。

So surely if we can connect

所以如果我們能夠

Africa and the last billion people

用這些資金連接非洲，

for numbers like that,

還有最後10億人，

we should be doing it.

我們應該義無反顧。

Thank you very much.

謝謝大家。

(Applause)

（掌聲）

Chris Anderson: Stay up there. Stay up there.

克里斯·安德森：請留步，請留步。

NN: You're going to give me extra time?

尼可拉斯·尼葛洛龐帝: 你要再多給我一點時間嗎？

CA: No. That was wickedly clever, wickedly clever.

克里斯: 不是。你說話真風趣，很機智。

You gamed it beautifully.

演講十分精彩。

Nicholas, what is your prediction?

尼可拉斯，談談你的預測吧？

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

NN: Thank you for asking.

尼可拉斯·尼葛洛龐帝: 感謝你的提問。

I'll tell you what my prediction is,

我來告訴你我的預測是什麼。

and my prediction, and this is a prediction,

這只是預測，

because it'll be 30 years. I won't be here.

因為三十年後才會發生， 那時我不可能再回到這裡。

But one of the things about learning how to read,

這個預測是有關學習如何閱讀的。

we have been doing a lot of consuming

一直以來，我們都是靠眼睛

of information going through our eyes,

閱讀大量的資訊。

and so that may be a very inefficient channel.

這種管道可能效率很低。

So my prediction is that we are going to ingest information

所以我的預測是—— 將來人們會靠嘴巴“攝取”資訊。

You're going to swallow a pill and know English.

吃一粒藥丸就學會英語，

You're going to swallow a pill and know Shakespeare.

吃一粒藥丸就理解莎士比亞。

And the way to do it is through the bloodstream.

學習過程通過血液循環完成。

So once it's in your bloodstream,

只要資訊流入血液，

it basically goes through it and gets into the brain,

它基本就會流向大腦，

and when it knows that it's in the brain

等到流向大腦，

in the different pieces,

進入不同的區域，

it deposits it in the right places.

就會儲存在相應的位置。

So it's ingesting.

所以是“攝取”資訊。

CA: Have you been hanging out with Ray Kurzweil by any chance?

克里斯: 你最近和雷·庫茲韋爾出去玩耍了嗎？ （雷·庫茲韋爾：谷歌工程總監）

NN: No, but I've been hanging around with Ed Boyden

尼可拉斯·尼葛洛龐帝: 沒有，但我和埃德·博伊登出去逛過。（埃德·博伊登：MIT大腦、認知科學和生物工程學副教授）

and hanging around with one of the speakers

還有今天在場的休·赫爾教授 （MIT生物機械工程研究所主任），

who is here, Hugh Herr,

他也是 TED 的演講嘉賓之一。

and there are a number of people.

我還有其他很多玩伴。

This isn't quite as far-fetched,

這個預測並非不著邊際，

so 30 years from now.

30年後就會見分曉。

CA: We will check it out.

克理斯: 我們將拭目以待。

We're going to be back and we're going to play this clip 30 years from now,

30年後，我們會重新回到這裡，觀看這段錄影，

and then all eat the red pill.

然後大家一起吞下紅色藥丸。

Well thank you for that.

非常感謝你的分享。

Nicholas Negroponte.

尼可拉斯·尼葛洛龐帝。

NN: Thank you.

尼可拉斯: 謝謝大家。

(Applause)

（掌聲）