A roadmap to end aging | Aubrey de Grey

629,789 views ・ 2007-01-16

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Translator: Enkel Doci Reviewer: Fitim Veliu
00:25
18 minutes is an absolutely brutal time limit,
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18 minuta eshte nje kohe plotesisht e pamjaftueshme
00:27
so I'm going to dive straight in, right at the point
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keshtu qe do te jem i drejt per drejt
00:29
where I get this thing to work.
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si funksionon kjo gje.
00:31
Here we go. I'm going to talk about five different things.
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Une do te flas per 5 gjera te ndryshme
00:33
I'm going to talk about why defeating aging is desirable.
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Une do te flas perse te mposhtesh plakjen eshte e deshirueshme.
00:36
I'm going to talk about why we have to get our shit together,
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Une do te flas perse duhet te jemi te organizuar,
00:38
and actually talk about this a bit more than we do.
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dhe ne fakt do te flas rreth kesaj me shume.
00:40
I'm going to talk about feasibility as well, of course.
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Une do te flas per realizushmerine, natyrisht.
00:42
I'm going to talk about why we are so fatalistic
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Une do te flas perse jemi pesimist
00:44
about doing anything about aging.
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rreth gjithckaje qe ka te bej me plakjen.
00:46
And then I'm going spend perhaps the second half of the talk
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dhe ndoshta pastaj pjesen e dyte te fjalimit do ta shpenzoj
00:48
talking about, you know, how we might actually be able to prove that fatalism is wrong,
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se si mund ta vertetojm se pesimismi eshte gabim,
00:53
namely, by actually doing something about it.
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duke bere dicka rreth saj.
00:55
I'm going to do that in two steps.
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Une do ta bej kete ne dy hapa.
00:57
The first one I'm going to talk about is
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Gjeja e pare per te cilen do flas eshte
00:59
how to get from a relatively modest amount of life extension --
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si mund te arrijm te zgjasim jetes me modesti
01:02
which I'm going to define as 30 years, applied to people
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te cilen do ta percaktoja 30 vjec,
01:05
who are already in middle-age when you start --
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te cilet jane ne moshe te mesme kur
01:07
to a point which can genuinely be called defeating aging.
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arrin nje pike ku i dorezoheni plakjes.
01:10
Namely, essentially an elimination of the relationship between
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Esencialisht nje eleminim i lidhjes midis
01:14
how old you are and how likely you are to die in the next year --
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sa vjec je, dhe sa eshte mundesi te vdesesh vitin tjeter
01:16
or indeed, to get sick in the first place.
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ose te semuresh.
01:18
And of course, the last thing I'm going to talk about
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Dhe natyrisht, gjeja e fundit per te cilen do te flas
01:20
is how to reach that intermediate step,
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eshte se si mund te arrijm fazen e ndermjetme.
01:22
that point of maybe 30 years life extension.
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pika ku te rrisim kohezgjatjen me 30 vjet.
01:25
So I'm going to start with why we should.
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Atehere, do te filloj me pyetjen perse duhet.
01:28
Now, I want to ask a question.
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Tani dua te bej nje pyetje.
01:30
Hands up: anyone in the audience who is in favor of malaria?
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Ngrini duart; te gjithe ata qe jane pro malarias?
01:33
That was easy. OK.
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Kjo ishte e thjesht. OK.
01:34
OK. Hands up: anyone in the audience
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OK. Ngini duarte, ata ne audience
01:36
who's not sure whether malaria is a good thing or a bad thing?
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te cilet nuk jane te sigurt nese malaria eshte dicka e mire apo e keqe?
01:39
OK. So we all think malaria is a bad thing.
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OK. Keshtu qe te gjithe mendojm se malaria eshte dicka e keqe.
01:41
That's very good news, because I thought that was what the answer would be.
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Ky eshte lajm i mire, pasi kjo eshte pergjigja qe kisha menduar.
01:43
Now the thing is, I would like to put it to you
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Gjeja qe une dua qe ju te kuptoni eshte se
01:45
that the main reason why we think that malaria is a bad thing
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arsye kryesore perse ne mendojm se malaria eshte gje e keqe
01:48
is because of a characteristic of malaria that it shares with aging.
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eshte per shkak te karakteristikes qe malaria ka me plakjen.
01:52
And here is that characteristic.
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Dhe ja ku eshte kjo karakteristike.
01:55
The only real difference is that aging kills considerably more people than malaria does.
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Diferenca e vetme eshte se plakja vret konsiderueshem me shum njerez se malaria.
02:00
Now, I like in an audience, in Britain especially,
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Tani, dua qe ne audience, sidomos ne Britani,
02:02
to talk about the comparison with foxhunting,
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te krahasojm gjahun e dhelprave,
02:04
which is something that was banned after a long struggle,
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e cila eshte dicka qe u ndalua pas shum veshtiresive,
02:07
by the government not very many months ago.
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nga qeveria jo shume muaj me pare.
02:10
I mean, I know I'm with a sympathetic audience here,
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E di se kam nje audience dashamirese ketu,
02:12
but, as we know, a lot of people are not entirely persuaded by this logic.
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por, sic e dime, shume njerez nuk jam shume te bindur nga kjo logjike.
02:15
And this is actually a rather good comparison, it seems to me.
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Dhe faktikisht kjo eshte nje krahasim shum i mire, sipas meje.
02:18
You know, a lot of people said, "Well, you know,
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E dini se shum njerez thane,
02:20
city boys have no business telling us rural types what to do with our time.
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"Ata te qytetit nuk kane pune te na tregojn ne fshatareve se cfare te bejm me kohen tone.
02:25
It's a traditional part of the way of life,
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Eshte zakon dhe pjese e jetes tone,
02:27
and we should be allowed to carry on doing it.
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dhe ne duhet te jemi te lire te vazhdojm ta bejm kete.
02:29
It's ecologically sound; it stops the population explosion of foxes."
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Ekologjikisht nenkupton se ndalon nje shperthim te popullates se dhelprave."
02:32
But ultimately, the government prevailed in the end,
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Por, perfundimisht qeveria mbizoteroi ne fund,
02:34
because the majority of the British public,
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sepse shumica e publikut Britanik,
02:35
and certainly the majority of members of Parliament,
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dhe sidomos shumica e antareve te perlamentit,
02:37
came to the conclusion that it was really something
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arriten ne perfundimin se ishte vertet dicka
02:39
that should not be tolerated in a civilized society.
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qe nuk hej toleruar ne nje shoqeri te civilizuar.
02:41
And I think that human aging shares
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Une mendoj se plakja e njerezimit ndan
02:42
all of these characteristics in spades.
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te gjitha keto karakteristika me shpate.
02:45
What part of this do people not understand?
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Cilen pjese nuk kuptojne njerezit?
02:47
It's not just about life, of course --
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Singurisht nuk ka te bej vec me jeten
02:49
(Laughter) --
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(buzeqeshje)
02:50
it's about healthy life, you know --
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ka te bej me jeten e shendetshme
02:53
getting frail and miserable and dependent is no fun,
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te jesh i brisht, i mjere, dhe i varur nuk eshte qejf,
02:56
whether or not dying may be fun.
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as vdekja nuk eshte qejf.
02:58
So really, this is how I would like to describe it.
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At'here, keshtu kam qejf ta pershkruaj.
03:00
It's a global trance.
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Eshte nje ekstaze globale.
03:02
These are the sorts of unbelievable excuses
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Keto jane burimet e justifikimeve te papranueshme.
03:04
that people give for aging.
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qe njerezit thone rreth plakjes.
03:06
And, I mean, OK, I'm not actually saying
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Ok, nuk eshte se dua te them qe
03:08
that these excuses are completely valueless.
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keto justifikime jane komplete te pa vlera.
03:10
There are some good points to be made here,
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Ka disa pika te rendesishme qe duhet kushtuar vemendje.
03:12
things that we ought to be thinking about, forward planning
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Gjera te cilat duhet ti mendojm per planet e ardhshme
03:15
so that nothing goes too -- well, so that we minimize
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ne menyre qe gjerat mos te shkojne shume mire, qe te minimizojm
03:17
the turbulence when we actually figure out how to fix aging.
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turbulencat kur ta gjejme sesi mund ta rregullojme plakjen.
03:20
But these are completely crazy, when you actually
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Por keto jane cmendurira, kur faktikisht
03:23
remember your sense of proportion.
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kujtojm sensin e proporcionit.
03:25
You know, these are arguments; these are things that
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Keto jane argumente, gjera te cilat
03:29
would be legitimate to be concerned about.
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do te ishte legjitime qe te shqetesoheshim.
03:31
But the question is, are they so dangerous --
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Por pyetja eshte, a jane keto kaq te rrezikshme
03:34
these risks of doing something about aging --
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keto rreziqe per te bere dicka rreth plakjes
03:36
that they outweigh the downside of doing the opposite,
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te cilat peshojn me shume sesa duhet te kunderten,
03:40
namely, leaving aging as it is?
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duke e lene plakjen te afrohet?
03:42
Are these so bad that they outweigh
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a jane keto aq te keqija sa qe
03:44
condemning 100,000 people a day to an unnecessarily early death?
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denojn 100,000 njerez ne dite me nje vdekje te parakohshme e te panevojshme.
03:50
You know, if you haven't got an argument that's that strong,
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Nese nuk ke ndonje argument aq te fort,
03:52
then just don't waste my time, is what I say.
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atehere mos ma harxho kohen kot, kete kam per te thene.
03:55
(Laughter)
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(buzeqeshje)
03:56
Now, there is one argument
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Tani, eshte nje argument
03:57
that some people do think really is that strong, and here it is.
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qe disa njerez vertete mendojn se eshte shum i fort, ia ku eshte.
03:59
People worry about overpopulation; they say,
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Njerezit shqetesohen per mbipopullimin; thone ata,
04:01
"Well, if we fix aging, no one's going to die to speak of,
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"Epo mire, nese e ndreqim plakjen, asnje nuk do vdes per te folur,
04:03
or at least the death toll is going to be much lower,
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ose te pakten taksa e vdekjes do jet shum me e ulet,
04:06
only from crossing St. Giles carelessly.
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vetem duke kaluar St. Giles pa kujdes.
04:08
And therefore, we're not going to be able to have many kids,
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Prandaj, ne nuk do te jemi ne gjendje te lindim shume femije,
04:10
and kids are really important to most people."
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dhe femijet jane shum te rendesishem per shum njerez."
04:12
And that's true.
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Kjo eshte e vertete.
04:14
And you know, a lot of people try to fudge this question,
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Dhe e dini ca, shume njerez mundohen ta evitojn kete pyetje,
04:17
and give answers like this.
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and pergjigjen keshtu.
04:18
I don't agree with those answers. I think they basically don't work.
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Une nuk jam dakort me keto pergjigje. Une ne parim mendoj se nuk funksionojne.
04:21
I think it's true, that we will face a dilemma in this respect.
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Une mendoj se eshte e verete, do te perballemi me nje dileme.
04:24
We will have to decide whether to have a low birth rate,
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Do na duhet te vendosim nese duhet te kemi nje shkalle te lindjes te ulet,
04:28
or a high death rate.
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ose shkalle te lart te vdekjes.
04:30
A high death rate will, of course, arise from simply rejecting these therapies,
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Nje shkalle e lart e vdekjes, sigurisht, vjen thjesht nga kundershtimi i ketyre terapive,
04:33
in favor of carrying on having a lot of kids.
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ne favor te te pasurit shume femije.
04:37
And, I say that that's fine --
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Dhe une them se kjo eshte ne rregull,
04:39
the future of humanity is entitled to make that choice.
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e ardhmja e njerezimit ka te drejt te vendos keshtu.
04:42
What's not fine is for us to make that choice on behalf of the future.
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Ajo cka nuk eshte e drejt eshte qe ne te bejme kete zgjedhje ne emer te te ardhmes.
04:46
If we vacillate, hesitate,
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nese, ne luhatemi, hezitojm,
04:48
and do not actually develop these therapies,
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dhe aktualisht nuk i zhvillojme keto terapi,
04:51
then we are condemning a whole cohort of people --
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athere ne po denojm nje numer te madh njerezish,
04:55
who would have been young enough and healthy enough
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te cilet do te ishin te rinj mjaftueshem dhe te shendetshem mjaftueshem
04:57
to benefit from those therapies, but will not be,
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qe te perfitonin nga keto terapi, por nuk do te ndodhe,
04:59
because we haven't developed them as quickly as we could --
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sepse ne nuk i kemi zhvilluar aq shpejt sa mundeshim--
05:01
we'll be denying those people an indefinite life span,
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do t'i mohojm ketyre njerezve nje jetegjatesi te pacaktuar,
05:03
and I consider that that is immoral.
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dhe une e konsideroj kete imporale.
05:05
That's my answer to the overpopulation question.
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Kjo eshte pergjigja ime rreth pyetjes se mbipopullimit.
05:08
Right. So the next thing is,
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Athere pika tjeter eshte,
05:10
now why should we get a little bit more active on this?
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tani, perse duhet te jemi pak me teper active per kete?
05:12
And the fundamental answer is that
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dhe pergjigja themelore eshte se,
05:14
the pro-aging trance is not as dumb as it looks.
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pro plakja ekstaze nuk eshte aq budallallik sa duket.
05:17
It's actually a sensible way of coping with the inevitability of aging.
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Perballimi i plakjes eshte nje ceshtje e ndjeshme.
05:21
Aging is ghastly, but it's inevitable, so, you know,
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Plakja eshte e ngadalte, por e pashmangshme,
05:25
we've got to find some way to put it out of our minds,
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duhet te gjejm nje menyre qe ta heqim nga mendjet tona,
05:27
and it's rational to do anything that we might want to do, to do that.
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dhe eshte e arsyeshme qe te bejm gjithcka qe mundemi per ta bere kete gje.
05:31
Like, for example, making up these ridiculous reasons
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Si per shembull te shpikim keto justifikime qesharake
05:34
why aging is actually a good thing after all.
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perse plakja eshte nje gje e mire ne fund te fundit.
05:36
But of course, that only works when we have both of these components.
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Por sigurisht, kjo do te funksiononte vetem nese do t'i kishim te dy keta perberes.
05:40
And as soon as the inevitability bit becomes a little bit unclear --
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Dhe ne momentin kur paevitueshmeria behet e paqart
05:43
and we might be in range of doing something about aging --
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athere ne do te jemi ne gamen e te berit dicka rreth plakjes
05:45
this becomes part of the problem.
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kjo behet pjese e problemit.
05:47
This pro-aging trance is what stops us from agitating about these things.
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Ky trance pro- plakjes eshte ajo cka na ndalon ne te agjitohemi rreth ketyre gjerave.
05:51
And that's why we have to really talk about this a lot --
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Dhe prandaj ne duhet te flasim shum rreth kesaj--
05:55
evangelize, I will go so far as to say, quite a lot --
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evangelize, une do te vazhdoj deri aty, sa te kem then mjaftueshem--
05:57
in order to get people's attention, and make people realize
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ne menyre qe te terheq vemendjen e njerezve dhe ti beje njerezit te kuptojne
06:00
that they are in a trance in this regard.
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qe jane ne nje trance rreth kesaj ceshtje.
06:02
So that's all I'm going to say about that.
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Pra, kjo eshte cka une dua te them rreth kesaj ceshtje.
06:04
I'm now going to talk about feasibility.
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Une tani do te flas per realizueshmerine.
06:07
And the fundamental reason, I think, why we feel that aging is inevitable
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Dhe arsyen themelore, mendoj une, perse ne ndihemi se plakja eshte e pashmangshme
06:11
is summed up in a definition of aging that I'm giving here.
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eshte e pjese e perkufizimit te plakjes qe une kam ketu.
06:14
A very simple definition.
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Nje perkufizim shume i thjesht.
06:15
Aging is a side effect of being alive in the first place,
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Plakja eshte pasoje e te qenit te gjalle,
06:18
which is to say, metabolism.
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si pershembull, metabolizmi.
06:20
This is not a completely tautological statement;
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Kjo nuk eshte nje deklarate e vertete;
06:23
it's a reasonable statement.
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eshte nje dekrata e arsyeshme.
06:24
Aging is basically a process that happens to inanimate objects like cars,
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Plakja eshte nje proces qe ndodh tek objektet e pajete, si makinat,
06:28
and it also happens to us,
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dhe gjithashtu ndodh tek ne,
06:30
despite the fact that we have a lot of clever self-repair mechanisms,
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pavarsisht nga fakti se ne kemi shum mekanizma te zgjuar vete-riparimi,
06:33
because those self-repair mechanisms are not perfect.
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per shkak se keto mekanizma vete-riparimi nuk jane perfekte.
06:35
So basically, metabolism, which is defined as
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Ne parim, metabolizmi, i ciki perkufizohet se
06:37
basically everything that keeps us alive from one day to the next,
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eshte gjithcka qe na mban gjall cdo dite,
06:40
has side effects.
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ka pasoja anesore.
06:42
Those side effects accumulate and eventually cause pathology.
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Keto arsye anesore akumulohen dhe shkaktojn patologji.
06:44
That's a fine definition. So we can put it this way:
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Ky eshte perkufizim perfekt. Mund te shprehemi ne kete menyre:
06:46
we can say that, you know, we have this chain of events.
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mund te themi, se ne e kemi kete zinxhir eventesh.
06:48
And there are really two games in town,
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Dhe jane dy gjera qe ndodhin,
06:50
according to most people, with regard to postponing aging.
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simas shumices se njerezve, persa i perket shtyrjes se plakjes.
06:53
They're what I'm calling here the "gerontology approach" and the "geriatrics approach."
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Keto jane ato cka une do ti quaja trajtimi gjerondologjik dhe trajtimi geriatrik.
06:57
The geriatrician will intervene late in the day,
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Gjerondologjia do te perfshihet me vone,
06:59
when pathology is becoming evident,
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kur patologjia te jete e dukshme,
07:01
and the geriatrician will try and hold back the sands of time,
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dhe geriatriku do te mundohet te ndaloje kohen,
07:04
and stop the accumulation of side effects
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dhe te ndaloje akumulimin e pasojave anesore
07:07
from causing the pathology quite so soon.
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qe te shkaktojne nje patologji kaq heret.
07:09
Of course, it's a very short-term-ist strategy; it's a losing battle,
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Sigurisht, eshte nje strategji kohe shkurter, eshte nje beteje e humbur,
07:12
because the things that are causing the pathology
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sepse gjerat qe shkaktojn patologjine
07:15
are becoming more abundant as time goes on.
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jane duke u shumuar me kalimin e kohes.
07:17
The gerontology approach looks much more promising on the surface,
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Trajtimi gjerondologjik duket me permtimprues ne pamje te pare,
07:21
because, you know, prevention is better than cure.
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sepse parandalimi eshte me mire se kurimi.
07:24
But unfortunately the thing is that we don't understand metabolism very well.
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Por fatkeqesisht puna eshte se ne nuk e kuptojm shume mire metabolizmin.
07:27
In fact, we have a pitifully poor understanding of how organisms work --
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Ne fakt, ne jemi per te ardhur keq persa i perket menyres se si funksionon organizmi--
07:30
even cells we're not really too good on yet.
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edhe rreth qelizave nuk dime shume.
07:32
We've discovered things like, for example,
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Kemi zbuluar gjera, si per shembull,
07:34
RNA interference only a few years ago,
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ARN-ja vetem disa vite me pare,
07:37
and this is a really fundamental component of how cells work.
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dhe kjo eshte dicka themelore sesi qelizat funksionojne.
07:39
Basically, gerontology is a fine approach in the end,
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Ne parim, gjerondologjia eshte nje trajtim i mire,
07:42
but it is not an approach whose time has come
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por nuk eshte nje trajtim per kohen qe ka ardhur,
07:44
when we're talking about intervention.
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kur ne po flisnim per nje nderhyrje.
07:46
So then, what do we do about that?
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At'here, cfare do te bejme rreth kesaj?
07:49
I mean, that's a fine logic, that sounds pretty convincing,
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Dua te them qe kjo eshte llogjike, tingullon teper bindese,
07:51
pretty ironclad, doesn't it?
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apo jo?
07:53
But it isn't.
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Por nuk eshte.
07:55
Before I tell you why it isn't, I'm going to go a little bit
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Perpara se t'ju them perse nuk eshte, do te flas pak per
07:58
into what I'm calling step two.
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ate cka une quaj faza e dyte.
08:00
Just suppose, as I said, that we do acquire --
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Supozo, sic thashe, se ne fitojm--
08:04
let's say we do it today for the sake of argument --
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le te themi se do ta bejm sot per hir te diskutimit --
08:06
the ability to confer 30 extra years of healthy life
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aftesine per te akorduar 30 vjet extra ne nje jete te shendetshme
08:10
on people who are already in middle age, let's say 55.
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tek njerezit qe jane ne moshen mesatare, le te themi 55 vjec.
08:13
I'm going to call that "robust human rejuvenation." OK.
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Do ta quaj kete nje perteritje te fuqishme te njeriut. OK.
08:16
What would that actually mean
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Cfare kjo do te nenkuptoj ne te vertete
08:17
for how long people of various ages today --
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se sa gjate njerez te moshave te ndryshme sot --
08:20
or equivalently, of various ages at the time that these therapies arrive --
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ose, mosha te ndryshme kur koha e terapive te vije --
08:24
would actually live?
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do te jetonin?
08:26
In order to answer that question -- you might think it's simple,
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Ne menyre qe ti pergjigjemi kesaj pyetje -- do te mendoje se eshte e thjesht,
08:28
but it's not simple.
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por nuk eshte aq e thjesht.
08:29
We can't just say, "Well, if they're young enough to benefit from these therapies,
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Nuk mund te themi thjesht, "Nese je i ri mjaftueshem per te perfituar nga keto terapi,
08:32
then they'll live 30 years longer."
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do te mund te jetoni 30 vjet me shume."
08:33
That's the wrong answer.
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Kjo eshte pergjigja e gabuar.
08:35
And the reason it's the wrong answer is because of progress.
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Dhe arsyeja perse eshte e gabuar eshte per shkak te progresit.
08:37
There are two sorts of technological progress really,
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Jane dy lloje progresi teknologjik,
08:39
for this purpose.
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per kete qellim.
08:40
There are fundamental, major breakthroughs,
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Ato jane themelore, parime te medha,
08:43
and there are incremental refinements of those breakthroughs.
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dhe jane zhvillim i perpunimeve te ketyre parimeve.
08:47
Now, they differ a great deal
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Tani, keto kane nje ndryshim te madh,
08:49
in terms of the predictability of time frames.
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persa i perket parashikimit kohore.
08:52
Fundamental breakthroughs:
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Parime themelore:
08:53
very hard to predict how long it's going to take
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shume e veshtire te parashikohen se sa kohe do te duhet
08:55
to make a fundamental breakthrough.
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te krijosh nje zbulim te madh themelore.
08:56
It was a very long time ago that we decided that flying would be fun,
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Ka kaluar shume kohe qekur medonim se te flitironim do ishte qejf,
08:59
and it took us until 1903 to actually work out how to do it.
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dhe na u desh te prisnim deri ne 1903 qe ta benim kete.
09:02
But after that, things were pretty steady and pretty uniform.
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Por mbas kesaj, gjerat ishin shume te qendrueshme dhe uniforme.
09:06
I think this is a reasonable sequence of events that happened
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Mendoj se kjo eshte nje sekuence e arsyeshme e eventeve qe ndodhen
09:09
in the progression of the technology of powered flight.
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ne zhvillimin e teknologjise se flytyrimit.
09:13
We can think, really, that each one is sort of
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Mund te mendojne, se gjithkush ishte
09:17
beyond the imagination of the inventor of the previous one, if you like.
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pertej inmagjinates se shpikesit te meparshem, nese ju pelqen.
09:20
The incremental advances have added up to something
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Zhvillimi i avancimeve kishte shtuar dicka
09:24
which is not incremental anymore.
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e cila nuk ishte me zhvillim.
09:26
This is the sort of thing you see after a fundamental breakthrough.
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Kjo eshte ajo cka shihet pas nje zbulimi te madh themelor.
09:29
And you see it in all sorts of technologies.
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Dhe kjo vihet re ne lloje te ndryshme teknologjike.
09:31
Computers: you can look at a more or less parallel time line,
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Kompjuterat, mund te shohesh nje ose me pak afat kohor,
09:34
happening of course a bit later.
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qe ndodhin sigurisht pak me vone.
09:35
You can look at medical care. I mean, hygiene, vaccines, antibiotics --
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Shikoni kujdesin shendetsor. Dua te them, higjenen, vaksinat, antibiotiket --
09:38
you know, the same sort of time frame.
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te njejtat afate kohore.
09:40
So I think that actually step two, that I called a step a moment ago,
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Pra une mendoj se ne fakt faza e dyte, qe une e quajta pak me pare,
09:44
isn't a step at all.
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nuk eshte fare nje hap.
09:45
That in fact, the people who are young enough
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Ku ne fakt, njerezit te cilet jane mjaftueshem te rinj
09:48
to benefit from these first therapies
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te perfitojn prej ketyre terapive
09:50
that give this moderate amount of life extension,
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qe mundesojn kete shtese ne jetegjatesi,
09:52
even though those people are already middle-aged when the therapies arrive,
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edhe pse keta njerez do jene ne moshen mesatare kur kjo teknologji te vije,
09:56
will be at some sort of cusp.
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do te jete ne kulmin e saj.
09:58
They will mostly survive long enough to receive improved treatments
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Ata do te mbijetojn mjaftueshem per te marr trajtime te permiresuara
10:02
that will give them a further 30 or maybe 50 years.
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qe do ti japi 30 ose ndoshta 50 vjet.
10:04
In other words, they will be staying ahead of the game.
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Me fjale te tjera, ata do te ecin me kohen.
10:07
The therapies will be improving faster than
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Terapite do te permiresohen me shpejt sesa
10:10
the remaining imperfections in the therapies are catching up with us.
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terapite e joperfekte te koheve te sotme.
10:14
This is a very important point for me to get across.
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Kjo eshte nje pike shume e rendesishme per t'u prekur.
10:16
Because, you know, most people, when they hear
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Sepse, shum njerez, kur degjojne
10:18
that I predict that a lot of people alive today are going to live to 1,000 or more,
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se une parashikoj se shum njerez qe jan gjalle sot do te jetojn 1,000 apo me shume,
10:23
they think that I'm saying that we're going to invent therapies in the next few decades
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ata mendojne se une po them se ne do te shpikim terapi ne dekadad e ardhshme
10:27
that are so thoroughly eliminating aging
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qe do te eleminojn plakjen teresisht
10:30
that those therapies will let us live to 1,000 or more.
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dhe se keto terapi do te na lejojn te jetojm 1,000 apo me shume.
10:33
I'm not saying that at all.
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Une nuk po them fare kete.
10:35
I'm saying that the rate of improvement of those therapies
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Une po them se ritmi i zhvillimit te ketyre terapive
10:37
will be enough.
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do jete e mjaftueshme.
10:38
They'll never be perfect, but we'll be able to fix the things
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Ato nuk do jen kurre perfekt, por do te jemi ne gjendje te ndreqim gjerat
10:41
that 200-year-olds die of, before we have any 200-year-olds.
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qe 200- vjecaret do te vdesin, perpara se te kemi ndonje 200- vjecare.
10:44
And the same for 300 and 400 and so on.
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E njejta gje per 300, 400, e keshtu me rradhe.
10:46
I decided to give this a little name,
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Kam vendosur ti jap nje emer kesaj,
10:49
which is "longevity escape velocity."
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qe eshte "logevity escape velocity."
10:51
(Laughter)
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(Buzeqeshje)
10:53
Well, it seems to get the point across.
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Mesa duket e transmetova kuptimin.
10:56
So, these trajectories here are basically how we would expect people to live,
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At'here, keto trajektore ketu tregojne sesi ne presim qe njerezit te jetojne,
11:01
in terms of remaining life expectancy,
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persa i perket pritshmerise se jetegjatesise,
11:03
as measured by their health,
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duke matur shendetin e tyre,
11:05
for given ages that they were at the time that these therapies arrive.
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per moshat qe ata kishin kur keto terapi erdhen.
11:08
If you're already 100, or even if you're 80 --
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Nese ti je 100, ose nese ti je 80 --
11:10
and an average 80-year-old,
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dhe mesatarisht 80-vjecar,
11:12
we probably can't do a lot for you with these therapies,
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ne nuk do mund te bejme shume per ju me keto terapi,
11:14
because you're too close to death's door
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sepse jeni shume afer vdekjes
11:16
for the really initial, experimental therapies to be good enough for you.
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ne menyre qe terapia eksperimentale, fillestare te jete mjaftueshem e mire per ty.
11:20
You won't be able to withstand them.
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Ju nuk do ishit ne gjendje ti perballonit ato.
11:21
But if you're only 50, then there's a chance
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Por nese je vetem 50, at'here do te kishit nje shanse
11:23
that you might be able to pull out of the dive and, you know --
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dhe mund t'ia dalesh mbane.
11:26
(Laughter) --
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(Buzeqeshje)
11:27
eventually get through this
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dhe perfundimisht t'ia hedhesh kesaj
11:30
and start becoming biologically younger in a meaningful sense,
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dhe te fillosh te behesh biologjikisht i ri ne nje sense kuptimplot,
11:33
in terms of your youthfulness, both physical and mental,
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persa i perket rinise suaj, fiziksht dhe psikologjikisht,
11:35
and in terms of your risk of death from age-related causes.
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dhe persa i perket rrezikut te vdekjes nga shkaqe te lidhura me moshen.
11:37
And of course, if you're a bit younger than that,
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Dhe sigurisht, nese je pak me i ri se kaq,
11:39
then you're never really even going
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at'here ju as nuk do te shkoni
11:41
to get near to being fragile enough to die of age-related causes.
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afer te qenit aq i brisht sa te vdisni nga shkaqe lidhur me moshen.
11:44
So this is a genuine conclusion that I come to, that the first 150-year-old --
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Keshtu qe ky eshte nje perfundim i cilter, qe 150 vjecari i pare --
11:49
we don't know how old that person is today,
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nuk e dime sesa vjec eshte ai person sot,
11:51
because we don't know how long it's going to take
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sepse nuk e dime sesa kohe do duhet
11:53
to get these first-generation therapies.
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perpara se te hyjn gjenerata e pare e ketyre terapive.
11:55
But irrespective of that age,
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Por pavarsisht nga mosha,
11:57
I'm claiming that the first person to live to 1,000 --
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Une pretendoj qe personi i pare qe do jetoje 1,000 --
12:01
subject of course, to, you know, global catastrophes --
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subjektive sigurisht, ndaj katastrofave globale --
12:04
is actually, probably, only about 10 years younger than the first 150-year-old.
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eshte ne te vertet, vetem rreth 10 vjet me te rinj sesa 150 vjecari i pare.
12:08
And that's quite a thought.
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Dhe kjo eshte nje goxha mendim.
12:10
Alright, so finally I'm going to spend the rest of the talk,
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At'here, me ne fund do te shpenzoj pjese tjeter te fjalimit,
12:13
my last seven-and-a-half minutes, on step one;
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shtate minutat e fundit, ne fazen e pare;
12:16
namely, how do we actually get to this moderate amount of life extension
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domethene, se mund faktikisht te arrijm ne kete shtese te jetegjatesise
12:21
that will allow us to get to escape velocity?
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kjo do na mundesoj te arrijn tek "escape velocity"?
12:24
And in order to do that, I need to talk about mice a little bit.
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Dhe ne menyre qe te bejm kete, me duhet te flas rreth minjve per pak.
12:28
I have a corresponding milestone to robust human rejuvenation.
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Une kam nje perteritje te fuqishme te njeriut, perkatesisht nje monument historik.
12:31
I'm calling it "robust mouse rejuvenation," not very imaginatively.
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Une do ta quaj perteritje e fuqishme e miut, jo shume imagjinate.
12:34
And this is what it is.
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Dhe ja cfare eshte.
12:36
I say we're going to take a long-lived strain of mouse,
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Une them se do te marrim nje lloj miu jetegjate,
12:38
which basically means mice that live about three years on average.
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e cila domethene minjt te cilet jetojn mesatarisht tre vjec.
12:41
We do exactly nothing to them until they're already two years old.
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Ne nuk do bejm asgje me ta derisa te arrijn dy vjec.
12:44
And then we do a whole bunch of stuff to them,
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Dhe pastaj bejm shum gjera me ta,
12:46
and with those therapies, we get them to live,
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dhe me keto terapi, i bejme qe ata te jetojne,
12:48
on average, to their fifth birthday.
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mesatarisht, deri ne pese vjec.
12:50
So, in other words, we add two years --
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Me fjale te tjera do ti shtojm dy vite jete --
12:52
we treble their remaining lifespan,
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ne ia shtojm jetegjatesine,
12:54
starting from the point that we started the therapies.
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duke filluar nga pika kur filluam terapine.
12:56
The question then is, what would that actually mean for the time frame
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Pyetja eshte, cfare do te thote kjo per afatin kohor
12:59
until we get to the milestone I talked about earlier for humans?
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derisa te arrijm tek monumenti historik qe fola pak me pare per njerezit?
13:02
Which we can now, as I've explained,
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Tani mundemi, ashtu sic e shpjegova,
13:04
equivalently call either robust human rejuvenation or longevity escape velocity.
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barazvlefshmerisht ta quajme ose perteritje e fuqishme e njerezve, ose "longevity escape velocity".
13:08
Secondly, what does it mean for the public's perception
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Se dyti, cfare do kuptimi ka ne perceptimin e publikut
13:11
of how long it's going to take for us to get to those things,
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sesa kohe do te na duhet te arrij tek keto gjera,
13:13
starting from the time we get the mice?
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duke filluar nga koha kur marrim miun?
13:15
And thirdly, the question is, what will it do
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Dhe se treti, pyetja eshte, cfare do t'i bej
13:17
to actually how much people want it?
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faktit se sa shum njerezit e duan?
13:19
And it seems to me that the first question
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Dhe sipas meje pyetja e pare
13:21
is entirely a biology question,
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eshte komplet pyetje biologjike,
13:22
and it's extremely hard to answer.
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dhe eshte ekstremisht e veshtire per t'u pergjigjur.
13:24
One has to be very speculative,
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Duhet te jesh shume teorik,
13:26
and many of my colleagues would say that we should not do this speculation,
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dhe shume kolege te mi do te thonin se nuk duhet ta bej kete meditim,
13:29
that we should simply keep our counsel until we know more.
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thjeshte duhet ta ruajm konsullimin tone deri sa te dime me teper.
13:33
I say that's nonsense.
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Une them se kjo s'ka kuptim.
13:34
I say we absolutely are irresponsible if we stay silent on this.
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Une them jemi komplet te papergjegjshem nese qendrojm pa folur rreth kesaj.
13:37
We need to give our best guess as to the time frame,
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Ne duhet te japim me hamendje se ne cilin afat kohore,
13:40
in order to give people a sense of proportion
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ne menyre qe t'iu japim njerezve domethenie
13:43
so that they can assess their priorities.
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se kur ata mund t'i diskutojn prioritetet e tyre.
13:45
So, I say that we have a 50/50 chance
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Keshtu qe une do te thoja se ka 50/50 mundesi
13:48
of reaching this RHR milestone,
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te arrijm kete RHR eveniment historik,
13:50
robust human rejuvenation, within 15 years from the point
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"RHR", brenda ketyre 15 viteve
13:53
that we get to robust mouse rejuvenation.
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do mund te zgjasim jetegjatesine e minjve.
13:55
15 years from the robust mouse.
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15 vite pas zgjatjes se minjve.
13:58
The public's perception will probably be somewhat better than that.
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Perceptimi i publikut me siguri do te jete me permiresuar.
14:01
The public tends to underestimate how difficult scientific things are.
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Publiku priret ta nenvleresoje sesa e veshtire eshte shkenca.
14:03
So they'll probably think it's five years away.
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Keshtu qe ata me siguri do mendojne se eshte pese vjet nga tani.
14:05
They'll be wrong, but that actually won't matter too much.
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Ata do jene gabim, por faktikisht s'do ket shum rendesi.
14:07
And finally, of course, I think it's fair to say
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Perfundimisht, mendoj se eshte e drejt te them
14:10
that a large part of the reason why the public is so ambivalent about aging now
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sepse nje arye shume e fort perse publiku eshte kaq i ndare rreth moshes tani
14:14
is the global trance I spoke about earlier, the coping strategy.
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eshte nje trance global per te cilin fola me heret, perballimi strategjik.
14:16
That will be history at this point,
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Kjo do behet histori ne kete pike,
14:18
because it will no longer be possible to believe that aging is inevitable in humans,
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sepse nuk do te besohet se evitimi i plakjes tek njerezit nuk eshte e mundur,
14:21
since it's been postponed so very effectively in mice.
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perderisa eshte shtyre me kaq efikasitet tek minjt.
14:24
So we're likely to end up with a very strong change in people's attitudes,
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Keshtu qe do te shohim nje ndryshim te madh ne sjelljen e njerezve,
14:28
and of course that has enormous implications.
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dhe sigurisht kjo do kete pasoja te medha.
14:31
So in order to tell you now how we're going to get these mice,
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Ne menyre qe t'iu them se si do ti marrim keto minj,
14:34
I'm going to add a little bit to my description of aging.
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Do te shtoj dicka tek pershkrimi im per plakjen.
14:36
I'm going to use this word "damage"
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Do te perdore kete fjale "dem"
14:38
to denote these intermediate things that are caused by metabolism
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te paraqes keto gjera te ndermjetme qe shkaktohen nga metabolismi,
14:42
and that eventually cause pathology.
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qe shkakton patologjine.
14:44
Because the critical thing about this
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Sepse gjeja kritike rreth kesaj
14:46
is that even though the damage only eventually causes pathology,
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eshte, edhe pse demi shkakton vetem pathologji,
14:48
the damage itself is caused ongoing-ly throughout life, starting before we're born.
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demi ne vetvete shkaktohet vazhdimisht gjate jetes, duke filluar perpara se ne te lindim.
14:53
But it is not part of metabolism itself.
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Por nuk eshte pjese e metabolismit ne vetvete.
14:56
And this turns out to be useful.
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Dhe kjo eshte me vlere.
14:57
Because we can re-draw our original diagram this way.
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Sepse mund ta vizatojm perseri diagramen origjinale ne kete menyre.
15:00
We can say that, fundamentally, the difference between gerontology and geriatrics
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Mund te themi, rrenjesisht, diferenca midis gerondologjise dhe gjeriatrise
15:03
is that gerontology tries to inhibit the rate
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eshte se gerondologjia mundohet te frenoj shkallen
15:05
at which metabolism lays down this damage.
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me te cilen metabolismi shkakton kete dem.
15:07
And I'm going to explain exactly what damage is
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Dhe une do te shpjegoj eksaktesisht cfare demi eshte
15:09
in concrete biological terms in a moment.
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ne terma konkrete biologjike ne nje moment.
15:12
And geriatricians try to hold back the sands of time
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Dhe gjeriatricianet mundohen te frenojne kohen
15:14
by stopping the damage converting into pathology.
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duke ndaluar demin e konvertimit ne patologji.
15:16
And the reason it's a losing battle
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Dhe aryeja eshte nje beteje e humbur
15:18
is because the damage is continuing to accumulate.
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sepse demi vazhdon te akumulohet.
15:20
So there's a third approach, if we look at it this way.
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At'here eshte nje trajtin i trete, nese e shohim nga kjo ane.
15:23
We can call it the "engineering approach,"
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Mund ta quajme trajtimi inxhinierik,
15:25
and I claim that the engineering approach is within range.
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dhe une pretendoj se trajtimi inxhinierik eshte pjese e zgjidhjes.
15:28
The engineering approach does not intervene in any processes.
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Trajtimi inxhinierik nuk eshte nderhyne ne asnje proces.
15:31
It does not intervene in this process or this one.
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Nuk nderhyne ne kete, apo ate proces.
15:33
And that's good because it means that it's not a losing battle,
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Dhe kjo domethene se nuk eshte nje beteje e humber,
15:36
and it's something that we are within range of being able to do,
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dhe eshte dicka qe eshte midis mundesive,
15:39
because it doesn't involve improving on evolution.
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sepse nuk perfshin permiresim apo evolim.
15:42
The engineering approach simply says,
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Trajtimi inxhinierik thjesht thote,
15:44
"Let's go and periodically repair all of these various types of damage --
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"Hajde te shkojme periodikisht te riparojm keto lloje te ndryshme demesh --
15:48
not necessarily repair them completely, but repair them quite a lot,
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nuk eshte e nevojshme ti riparojm komplet, por ti riparojm goxha,
15:52
so that we keep the level of damage down below the threshold
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ne menyre qe ta ruajm nivelin e demit nen pragun
15:55
that must exist, that causes it to be pathogenic."
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qe duhet te eksiztoj, qe e shkakton ate te jete patologjik."
15:58
We know that this threshold exists,
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Ne e dime se ky prag eksizston,
16:00
because we don't get age-related diseases until we're in middle age,
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sepse nuk kemi semundje te lidhura me moshen derisa arrijne ne moshen e mesme,
16:03
even though the damage has been accumulating since before we were born.
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edhe pse demi ka qene duke u akumuluar perpara se te lindnim.
16:06
Why do I say that we're in range? Well, this is basically it.
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Pse them se jemi ne diapazon? E pra kjo eshte e gjitha.
16:10
The point about this slide is actually the bottom.
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Pika kryesore e ketij slidi eshte fundi i tij.
16:13
If we try to say which bits of metabolism are important for aging,
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Nese filloj te themi se cila copez e metabolismit jane te rendesishme per plakjen,
16:16
we will be here all night, because basically all of metabolism
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do te rrinim ketu gjith naten, sepse i gjithe metabolizmi
16:19
is important for aging in one way or another.
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eshte i rendesishem per plakjen ne nje menyre apo tjeter.
16:21
This list is just for illustration; it is incomplete.
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Kjo list eshte thjesht per ilustrim, eshte e pakompletuar.
16:24
The list on the right is also incomplete.
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Lista ne te djathte gjithashtu eshte e pakompletuar.
16:26
It's a list of types of pathology that are age-related,
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Eshte nje list e llojeve te patologjis qe jane te lidhura me moshen,
16:29
and it's just an incomplete list.
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dhe eshte thjesht nje liste e pakompletuar.
16:31
But I would like to claim to you that this list in the middle is actually complete --
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Por une pretendoj se kjo liste ne mes eshte e kompletuar,
16:34
this is the list of types of thing that qualify as damage,
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kjo eshte lista e gjerave te cilat qualifikojn si deme,
16:37
side effects of metabolism that cause pathology in the end,
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pasojat anesore te metabolizmit qe shkaktojn patologjine ne fund,
16:40
or that might cause pathology.
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apo qe mund te shkaktojn patologjine.
16:42
And there are only seven of them.
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Jane vetem shtate.
16:45
They're categories of things, of course, but there's only seven of them.
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Kategorizohen ne nje, por jane shtate te tilla.
16:48
Cell loss, mutations in chromosomes, mutations in the mitochondria and so on.
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Humbja e qelizave, mutacione ne kromozome, mutacione ne mitokondrine e keshtu me rralle.
16:53
First of all, I'd like to give you an argument for why that list is complete.
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Se pari, dua te argumentoj per kjo list eshte e kompletuar.
16:58
Of course one can make a biological argument.
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Sigurisht, dikush mund te kete nje argument biologjik.
17:00
One can say, "OK, what are we made of?"
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Dikush mund te thot, "OK, nga cfare perbehemi ne?"
17:02
We're made of cells and stuff between cells.
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Ne perbehemi nga qeliza dhe gjera midis qelizave.
17:04
What can damage accumulate in?
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Si mund te akumulohet demi?
17:07
The answer is: long-lived molecules,
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Pergjigja eshte, molekula jetegjata,
17:09
because if a short-lived molecule undergoes damage, but then the molecule is destroyed --
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sepse nese nje molekul jeteshkurter i nenshtrohet demit, athere molekula shkaterrohet --
17:12
like by a protein being destroyed by proteolysis -- then the damage is gone, too.
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si nga shkaterrimi i nje proteine nga proteolysis -- athere demi ka ikur, gjithashtu.
17:16
It's got to be long-lived molecules.
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Duhet te jene molekula jetegjata.
17:18
So, these seven things were all under discussion in gerontology a long time ago
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Keto 7 gjera jane pjese e diskutimit ne gjereondologji shume kohe me pare
17:21
and that is pretty good news, because it means that,
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dhe ky eshte lajm i mire, sepse nenkupton se,
17:25
you know, we've come a long way in biology in these 20 years,
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jemi zhvilluar goxha ne bilogji keto 20 vite,
17:27
so the fact that we haven't extended this list
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fakti qe nuk e kemi shtuar listen
17:29
is a pretty good indication that there's no extension to be done.
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eshte nje shenje se nuk ka per tu bere ndonje shtese.
17:33
However, it's better than that; we actually know how to fix them all,
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Megjithate, eshte me mire se kaq; faktikisht ne e dime si ti ndrecim te gjitha keto
17:35
in mice, in principle -- and what I mean by in principle is,
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tek minjt, ne princip -- ajo cka nenkuptoj me princip eshte se,
17:38
we probably can actually implement these fixes within a decade.
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me siguri mund ti implementojm keto ndrecje kete dekade.
17:41
Some of them are partially implemented already, the ones at the top.
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Disa nga keto jane pjeserisht te implementuara, ato te sipermet.
17:45
I haven't got time to go through them at all, but
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Nuk kam pasur kohe te diskutoj per to, por
17:48
my conclusion is that, if we can actually get suitable funding for this,
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konkluzioni eshte se, nese ne mund te gjejme fondet e nevojshme per kete,
17:52
then we can probably develop robust mouse rejuvenation in only 10 years,
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at'here me siguri mund te zhvillojme nje rinim te fuqishem te minjve brenda 10 viteve,
17:56
but we do need to get serious about it.
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por duhet ta marrim seriozisht.
17:59
We do need to really start trying.
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Duhet qe vertet te fillojme te bejme perpjekje.
18:01
So of course, there are some biologists in the audience,
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Natyrisht, jane disa biolog ne audience,
18:04
and I want to give some answers to some of the questions that you may have.
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dhe dua t'iu pergjigjem disa pyetjeve qe ju mund te keni.
18:07
You may have been dissatisfied with this talk,
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You mund te jeni zhgenjyer nga ky fjalim,
18:09
but fundamentally you have to go and read this stuff.
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por thellesisht ju duhet te shkoni dhe te lexoni keto gjera.
18:11
I've published a great deal on this;
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Une kam publikuar shume rreth kesaj;
18:13
I cite the experimental work on which my optimism is based,
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I citoj eksperimentet ku optimizmi im bazohet,
18:16
and there's quite a lot of detail there.
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dhe ka shume detaje aty.
18:18
The detail is what makes me confident
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Detajet jane ato qe me krijojne mua vetebesim
18:20
of my rather aggressive time frames that I'm predicting here.
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te prashikimeve agresive te afateve kohore ketu.
18:22
So if you think that I'm wrong,
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Pra, nese mendoni se jam gabim,
18:24
you'd better damn well go and find out why you think I'm wrong.
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Duhet te shkoni dhe te gjeni perse une jam gabim.
18:28
And of course the main thing is that you shouldn't trust people
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Dhe sigurisht kryesorja eshte qe nuk duhet ti besoni njerezit
18:31
who call themselves gerontologists because,
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qe e quajne veten gjerendolog sepse,
18:33
as with any radical departure from previous thinking within a particular field,
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si cdo largim radikal nga nje mendim i meparshem rreth nje fushe te caktuar,
18:37
you know, you expect people in the mainstream to be a bit resistant
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pret qe njerez ne qender te jeni rezistent
18:41
and not really to take it seriously.
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dhe nuk duhen marre seriozisht.
18:43
So, you know, you've got to actually do your homework,
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Keshtu qe duhet ti besh detyrat e shtepise,
18:45
in order to understand whether this is true.
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ne menyre qe te kuptosh nese kjo eshte e vertete.
18:46
And we'll just end with a few things.
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Dhe do ta mbyllim me disa gjera.
18:48
One thing is, you know, you'll be hearing from a guy in the next session
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Do te degjoni nga dikush qe do vije ne seksionin tjeter
18:51
who said some time ago that he could sequence the human genome in half no time,
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i cili tha kohe me pare se mund te rendiste gjenomin e njeriut per pak kohe,
18:55
and everyone said, "Well, it's obviously impossible."
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dhe te gjithe thane, "E pra, eshte e pamundur."
18:57
And you know what happened.
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Dhe ju e dini se cfare ndodhi.
18:58
So, you know, this does happen.
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Keshtu qe kjo ndodh.
19:02
We have various strategies -- there's the Methuselah Mouse Prize,
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Ne kemi disa strategji -- eshte Methuselah Mouse Prize,
19:04
which is basically an incentive to innovate,
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e cila eshte ne themel nje shperblim per te motivuar,
19:07
and to do what you think is going to work,
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dhe te besh ate qe ti mendon se do te funksionoje,
19:10
and you get money for it if you win.
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dhe merr para nese fiton.
19:13
There's a proposal to actually put together an institute.
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Eshte nje propozim qe te krijohet nje institute.
19:16
This is what's going to take a bit of money.
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Kjo do te kishte shume shpenzime.
19:18
But, I mean, look -- how long does it take to spend that on the war in Iraq?
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Sa kohe do te merrte ta shpenzoje ate ne luften e Irakut?
19:21
Not very long. OK.
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Jo shum kohe. OK.
19:22
(Laughter)
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(Buzeqeshje)
19:23
It's got to be philanthropic, because profits distract biotech,
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Duhet te jet filantropike, sepse fitimet e hutojne biotech,
19:26
but it's basically got a 90 percent chance, I think, of succeeding in this.
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por ne parim ka 90 perqind shanse, mendoj une, qe te jemi te suksesshem.
19:30
And I think we know how to do it. And I'll stop there.
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Dhe mendoj se dime sesi ta bejm. Dhe do ndaloj aty.
19:33
Thank you.
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Faleminderit.
19:34
(Applause)
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(Duartrokitje)
19:39
Chris Anderson: OK. I don't know if there's going to be any questions
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Chris Anderson: OK. Nuk di nese keni ndonje pyetje
19:42
but I thought I would give people the chance.
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por mendova t'iu jap njerezve nje shanse.
19:44
Audience: Since you've been talking about aging and trying to defeat it,
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Audienca: Meqenese ke folur per plakjen dhe si mund ta mposhtim ate,
19:48
why is it that you make yourself appear like an old man?
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perse e ben veten te dukesh si nje plake?
19:52
(Laughter)
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(Buzeqeshje)
19:56
AG: Because I am an old man. I am actually 158.
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AG: Sepse une jam nje plake. Jame ne fakt 158 vjece.
19:59
(Laughter)
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(Buzeqeshje)
20:00
(Applause)
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(Duartrokitje)
20:03
Audience: Species on this planet have evolved with immune systems
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Audience: Speciet e planetit kane evoluar me sistemi imunitar,
20:07
to fight off all the diseases so that individuals live long enough to procreate.
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per te luftuar te gjitha semundjet ne menyre qe individed te jetojn mjaftueshem per te ri-krijuar.
20:11
However, as far as I know, all the species have evolved to actually die,
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Megjitheate, aq sa une jam ne dijeni, te gjitha qeniet evolojn per te vdekur,
20:16
so when cells divide, the telomerase get shorter, and eventually species die.
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kur qelizat shumefishohen, telomerase behet e shkurter, dhe speciet vdesin.
20:21
So, why does -- evolution has -- seems to have selected against immortality,
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Athere, perse -- evolucioni -- duket sikur ka zgjedhur kunder pavdekshmerise,
20:26
when it is so advantageous, or is evolution just incomplete?
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kur eshte kaq avantazhuese, apo eshte evolucioni i pakompletuar?
20:30
AG: Brilliant. Thank you for asking a question
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AG: I madh je. Te falenderoj qe me bere nje pyetje
20:32
that I can answer with an uncontroversial answer.
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qe mund ti pergjigjem me nje pergjigje te pakundershtueshme.
20:34
I'm going to tell you the genuine mainstream answer to your question,
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Une do t'i pergjigjem me ciltersi dhe me pergjigjen e zakonshme,
20:37
which I happen to agree with,
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me te cilen une jam dakort,
20:39
which is that, no, aging is not a product of selection, evolution;
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e cila eshte, jo, plakja nuk eshte produkt i selektimit, evolucion;
20:42
[aging] is simply a product of evolutionary neglect.
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[plakje] eshte thjesht nje produkt i neglizhimit te evolucionit.
20:45
In other words, we have aging because it's hard work not to have aging;
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Me fjale te tjera, ne kemi plakjen pasi duhet shume pune mos ta kemi ate;
20:50
you need more genetic pathways, more sophistication in your genes
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te duhet me shume rruge gjenetike, me shume gjene te sofistikuara
20:52
in order to age more slowly,
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ne menyre qe te plakesh me ngadale
20:54
and that carries on being true the longer you push it out.
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dhe kjo vazhdon te vertetohet kur ne e nxjerrim ne pahe.
20:57
So, to the extent that evolution doesn't matter,
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Pra, perforcoj se evolucioni nuk ka rendesi,
21:02
doesn't care whether genes are passed on by individuals,
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nuk me intereson nese gjenet vijne nga individed,
21:04
living a long time or by procreation,
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te jetosh nje kohe te gjate apo nga pjelloria,
21:07
there's a certain amount of modulation of that,
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ajo eshte e rregulluar ne nje sasi te caktuar,
21:09
which is why different species have different lifespans,
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ja pse specie te ndryshme kane jetegjatesi te ndryshme,
21:12
but that's why there are no immortal species.
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por prandaj nuk ka specie te pavdekshme.
21:15
CA: The genes don't care but we do?
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CA: Gjeneve nuk iu intereson por neve po?
21:17
AG: That's right.
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AG: Kjo eshte e vertete.
21:19
Audience: Hello. I read somewhere that in the last 20 years,
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Audience: Pershendetje. Kam lexuar diku se ne 20 vitet e fundit,
21:24
the average lifespan of basically anyone on the planet has grown by 10 years.
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jetegjatesia mesatare ne planet eshte rritur me 10 vjet.
21:29
If I project that, that would make me think
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Sipas kesaj une projektoj,
21:32
that I would live until 120 if I don't crash on my motorbike.
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se do te jetoj deri ne 120 vjec nese nuk pesoj aksident me motor.
21:37
That means that I'm one of your subjects to become a 1,000-year-old?
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Kjo do te thot se une do te jem nje nga subjektet e tua per tu bere 1000 vjec?
21:42
AG: If you lose a bit of weight.
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AG: Nese humb pak ne peshe.
21:44
(Laughter)
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(Buzeqeshje)
21:47
Your numbers are a bit out.
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Llogaria juaj nuk eshte e sakte.
21:50
The standard numbers are that lifespans
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Numrat standard thone se jetegjatesite
21:53
have been growing at between one and two years per decade.
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kane ardhur duke u rritur 1 ose 2 vjet per dekade.
21:56
So, it's not quite as good as you might think, you might hope.
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Keshtu qe nuk eshte aq mire sa ju mendoni -- apo shpresoni.
22:00
But I intend to move it up to one year per year as soon as possible.
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Por une planifikoj ta rrise nje 1 vit per cdo vit sa me shpejt te jet e mundur.
22:03
Audience: I was told that many of the brain cells we have as adults
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Audience: Me kane then se shume prej qelizave te trurit qe kemi si adult
22:06
are actually in the human embryo,
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ndodhen ne embrionin e njeriut,
22:08
and that the brain cells last 80 years or so.
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dhe qelizat e trurit zgjasin 80 vjet apo dicka e till.
22:10
If that is indeed true,
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Nese kjo eshte e vertete,
22:12
biologically are there implications in the world of rejuvenation?
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biologjikisht a do te kete implikacione ne boten e rinimit?
22:15
If there are cells in my body that live all 80 years,
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Nese ka qeliza ne trupin tim qe jetojn vec 80 vjet,
22:18
as opposed to a typical, you know, couple of months?
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ne kundershtim me disa muaj?
22:20
AG: There are technical implications certainly.
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AG: Do te kete implikime teknike, sigurisht.
22:22
Basically what we need to do is replace cells
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Ne themel, ajo cka duhet te bejme eshte ti zevendesojme qelizat
22:26
in those few areas of the brain that lose cells at a respectable rate,
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ne ato pjese te trurit ku humbasin qelizat me shkalle te larte,
22:29
especially neurons, but we don't want to replace them
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sidomos neuronet, por nuk duam ti zevendesojm ato
22:32
any faster than that -- or not much faster anyway,
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me shpejt se aq -- ose jo shume shpejt gjithesesi,
22:34
because replacing them too fast would degrade cognitive function.
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sepse duke i zevendesuar ato shum shpejte do te degradonte funksionet njohese.
22:38
What I said about there being no non-aging species earlier on
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Ajo c'ka thashe me heret se nuk ka specie qe nuk plaken
22:41
was a little bit of an oversimplification.
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ishte shume e thjeshtezuar.
22:43
There are species that have no aging -- Hydra for example --
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Ka specie qe nuk plaken -- Hidra per shembull --
22:47
but they do it by not having a nervous system --
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por e bejne kete pa patur nje sistem nervor --
22:49
and not having any tissues in fact that rely for their function
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dhe pa patur ndonje organ qe varet nga funksionet e tyre
22:51
on very long-lived cells.
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ne cdo qelize jetegjate.
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