How we could change the planet's climate future | David Wallace-Wells

Transcriber: Ivana Korom Reviewer: Krystian Aparta

Translator: Tjasa Kosir Reviewer: Nika Kotnik

Tukaj sem, da bi govoril o podnebnih spremembah,

I'm here to talk about climate change,

but I'm not really an environmentalist.

ampak v resnici nisem okoljevarstvenik.

In fact, I've never really thought of myself as a nature person.

V resnici, nikoli se nisem videl kot osebo, ki je povezana z naravo.

I have never gone camping, never gone hiking,

Še nikoli nisem kampirat, nikoli nisem šel na pohod,

never even owned a pet.

nikoli nisem niti imel domačih ljubljenčkov,

I've lived my whole life in cities,

in živel sem celo svoje življenje v mestih.

actually just one city.

Pravzaprav v samo enem mestu.

And while I like to take trips to visit nature,

In čeprav imam rad izlete v naravo,

I always thought it was something that was happening elsewhere,

se mi je vedno zdelo, kot da se dogajajo nekje drugje,

far away,

daleč stran,

with all of modern life a fortress against its forces.

ker je moderno življenje trdnjava proti naravnim silam.

In other words,

Z drugimi besedami,

like just about everybody I knew,

kot vsi ostali ki sem jih poznal,

I lived my life complacent

sem živel svoje življenje samozadovoljen

and deluded

in zaveden

about the threat from global warming.

glede grožnje o globalnem segrevanju.

Which I took to be happening slowly,

Za katerega sem mislil; da se dogaja počasi,

happening at a distance

da se dogaja nekje daleč,

and representing only a modest threat to the way that I lived.

in da predstavlja le skromno grožnjo trenutnemu načinu življenja.

In each of these ways,

In v vsaki od teh točk,

I was very, very wrong.

sem se zelo, zelo motil.

Večina ljudi, ki pripoveduje zgodbe o globalnem segrevanju,

Now most people, if they were telling you about climate change,

govori zgodbe o prihodnosti.

will tell you a story about the future.

Ko sem jaz počel to, sem rekel

If I was doing that, I would say,

"According to the UN, if we don't change course,

"Po navedbah OZN, če se ne spremenimo smeri

do konca stoletja

by the end of the century,

bomo verjetno dosegli približno štiri stopinje Celzija ogrevanja."

we're likely to get about four degrees Celsius of warming."

To bi pomenilo, kot verjamejo nekateri znanstveniki,

That would mean, some scientists believe,

twice as much war,

dvakrat več vojn,

half as much food,

pol manj hrane,

a global GDP possibly 20 percent smaller than it would be without climate change.

globalni BDP morda 20 odstotkov manjši kot brez podnebnih sprememb.

That's an impact that's deeper than the Great Depression,

To je globlji vpliv kot ga je imela Velika depresija,

and it would be permanent.

in bil bi trajen.

But the impacts are actually happening a lot faster than 2100.

Toda učinki se dejansko dogajajo veliko hitreje kot 2100.

By just 2050, it's estimated,

Ocenjuje se, da do leta 2050,

many of the biggest cities in South Asia and the Middle East

bodo mnoga velika mesta v južni Aziji in na Bližnjem vzhodu,

will be almost literally unlivably hot in summer.

imela tako vroča poletja, da tam ne bo mogoče živeti.

These are cities that today are home to 10, 12, 15 million people.

To so mesta, ki so danes dom 10, 12, 15 milijonom ljudi.

And in just three decades,

In samo v treh desetletjih,

you wouldn't be able to walk around outside in them

se ne bomo mogli več sprehajati po njih

without risking heatstroke or possibly death.

ne da bi tvegali toplotni udar ali morebitno smrt.

The planet is now 1.1 degrees Celsius warmer

Naš planet je trenutno 1.1 stopinje Celzija toplejši

than it was before industrialization.

kot je bil pred industrializacijo.

That may not sound like a lot,

To se mogoče ne sliši veliko,

but it actually puts us entirely outside the window of temperatures

vendar nas v resnici postavlja v celoti zunaj okna temperatur,

that enclose all of human history.

ki zajemajo vso človeško zgodovino.

That means that everything we have ever known as a species,

To pomeni, da vse kar nam je bilo kdaj znano kot vrsti,

the evolution of the human animal,

evolucija človeka,

the development of agriculture,

razvoj agrikulture,

the development of rudimentary civilization

razvoj prvih civilizacij,

and modern civilization and industrial civilization,

in razvoj moderne civilizacije in industrijske civilizacije,

everything we know about ourselves as biological creatures,

vse kar vemo o sebi kot biološka bitja,

as social creatures, as political creatures,

kot socialna bitja, kot politična bitja,

all of it is the result of climate conditions

vse to je rezultat podnebnih razmer

we have already left behind.

ki jih že imamo za sabo.

It's like we've landed on an entirely different planet,

Je kot da smo pristali na povsem drugem planetu,

with an entirely different climate.

s povsem drugačnim podnebjem.

And we now have to figure out

In mi bomo morali ugotoviti,

what of the civilization that we've brought with us

kaj iz civilizacije, v kateri smo živeli do sedaj,

can endure these new conditions

lahko obdržimo v teh novih pogojih,

and what can't.

in kaj ne moremo.

And things will get worse from here.

In od tu se bodo stvari še poslabšale.

Now for a very long time,

Zelo dolgo časa

we were told that climate change was a slow saga.

smo mislili da so podnebne spremembe počasna saga.

It started with the industrial revolution,

Začele so se z industrijsko revolucijo,

and it had fallen to us

in mi naj bi počistili

to clean up the mess left by our grandparents

nered, ki so ga zapustili naši stari starši,

so our grandchildren wouldn't be dealing with the results.

zato, da se vnukom ne bo treba ukvarjati s posledicami.

It was a story of centuries.

Bila je zgodba stoletji.

In fact, half of all of the emissions

V resnici je polovica vseh emisij,

that have ever been produced from the burning of fossil fuels

ki so bile kdaj proizvedene z gorenjem fosilnih goriv,

in the entire history of humanity

v celotni zgodovini človeštva,

have been produced in just the last 30 years.

so bile proizvedene v samo zadnjih 30 letih.

That's since Al Gore published his first book on warming.

To je odkar je Al Gore objavil svojo prvo knjigo o segrevanju.

It's since the UN established its IPCC climate change body.

To je odkar je OZN ustanovil organ za podnebne spremembe, IPCC.

We've done more damage since then

Od takrat smo naredili več škode

than in all the centuries, all the millennia before.

kot skozi vsa stoletja, celo tisočletje pred tem.

Now I'm 37 years old,

Imam 37 let,

which means my life contains this entire story.

kar pomeni da moje življenje zajema to celotno zgodbo.

When I was born, the planet's climate seemed stable.

Ko sem se rodil, se je zdelo podnebje planeta stabilno.

Today,

Danes,

we are on the brink of catastrophe.

smo na robu katastrofe.

The climate crisis is not the legacy of our ancestors.

Podnebna kriza ni zapuščina naših prednikov.

It is the work of a single generation.

Je delo ene, same generacije.

Ours.

Naše.

This may all sound like bad news.

To vse morda zveni kot slaba novica.

Which it is, really bad news.

Kar je, res slaba novica.

But it also contains, I think,

Vendar vsebuje tudi, vsaj tako mislim,

some good news, at least relatively speaking.

nekaj dobrih novic, vsaj relativno gledano.

These impacts are terrifyingly large.

Ti vplivi so grozljivo veliki.

But they are also, I think, exhilarating.

Vendar pa so tudi, mislim, razburljivi.

Because they are ultimately a reflection

of how much power we have over the climate.

koliko moči imamo čez podnebje.

If we get to those hellish scenarios,

Če pridemo do teh peklenskih scenarijev,

it will be because we have made them happen,

bo zato, ker smo jih mi ustvarili,

because we have chosen to make them happen.

zato, ker smo se odločili, da se zgodijo.

Which means we can choose to make other scenarios happen, too.

Kar pomeni, da se lahko odločimo, da se zgodijo tudi drugi scenariji.

Now that may seem too rosy to believe

Zdaj se to morda zdi preveč rožnato, da bi verjeli,

and the political obstacles are in fact enormous.

in politične ovire so v resnici ogromne.

Ampak gre za preprosto dejstvo,

But it is a simple fact --

the main driver of global warming is human action:

glavno gonilo globalnega segrevanja je človeško delo:

How much carbon we put into the atmosphere.

Koliko ogljika spravimo v ozračje.

Our hands are on those levers.

Naše roke so nad temi vzvodi.

And we can write the story of the planet's climate future ourselves.

In mi lahko napišemo samo zgodbo o podnebni prihodnosti planeta.

Not just can -- but are.

Ne le lahko - ampak to že počnemo.

Since inaction is a kind of action,

Ker je nedelovanje, nekakšno delovanje,

we'll be writing that story ourselves whether we like it or not.

bomo to zgodbo napisali sami ali nam je všeč ali ne.

This is not just any story,

To ni samo neka zgodba,

all of us holding the future of the planet in our hands.

vsi držimo prihodnost planeta v naših rokah.

It's the kind of story we used to recognize only in mythology

To je vrsta zgodbe, ki jo lahko prepoznamo iz mitologije

and theology.

in teologije.

A single generation

Ena sama generacija,

that has brought the future of humanity into doubt

ki je postavila prihodnost človeštva na kocko,

now tasked with securing a new future.

je zdaj dolžna zagotoviti novo prihodnost.

So what would that look like?

Kako bi to izgledalo?

It could mean solar arrays barnacling the planet,

Lahko bi pomenilo sočne panele postavljene po planetu,

really everywhere you looked.

resnično, kamorkoli bi pogledal.

It could mean if we developed better technology,

To bi lahko pomenilo, če bi se razvila boljša tehnologija,

we wouldn't even need to deploy them that broadly,

bi jih verjetno potrebovali celo v manjšem obsegu,

because it's been estimated that just a sliver of the Sahara desert

ker je bilo ocenjeno, da že delež puščave Sahara

absorbs enough solar power to provide all the world's energy needs.

absorbira zadosti energije za zadostitev energetskih potreb celotnega sveta.

But we'd probably need a new electric grid,

A verjetno bi potrebovali novo električno omrežje,

one that doesn't lose two-thirds of its power to waste heat,

takšnega, ki ne izgubi dve tretjini svoje moči skozi toploto,

as is today the case in the US.

kot je to danes v ZDA.

We could use some more nuclear power, perhaps,

Lahko bi uporabili še jedrsko energijo, morda,

although it would have to be an entirely different kind of nuclear power,

čeprav bi moral biti v celoti drugačna vrste jedrske energije,

because today's technology simply isn't cost-competitive

ker današnja tehnologija ni stroškovno konkurenčna

with renewable energy whose costs are falling so rapidly.

z obnovljivo energijo, katere stroški tako hitro padajo.

We'd need a new kind of plane,

Potrebovali bi novo vrsto letal,

because I don't think it's particularly practical

ker mislim, da ni praktično,

to ask the entire world to give up on air travel,

da bi se ves svet odpovedal letalskemu potovanju,

especially as so much of the global South

še posebej sedaj, ko si globalni jug,

is, for the very first time, able to afford it.

prvič na splošno, lahko takšna potovanja privošči.

We need planes that won't produce carbon.

Potrebujemo letala, ki ne bodo proizvajala ogljika.

We need a new kind of agriculture.

Potrebujemo novo vrsto kmetijstva.

Because we probably can't ask people to entirely give up on meat and go vegan,

Ker ne moremo pričakovati od ljudi, da se odpovedo mesu in postanejo vegani.

it would mean a new way of raising beef.

To pomeni nov način gojenja goveda

Or perhaps an old way,

Ali morda na star način,

since we already know that traditional pasturing practices

saj že vemo, da tradicionalne pastirske prakse,

can turn cattle farms

lahko spremenijo živinorejske kmetije

from what are called carbon sources, which produce CO2,

ki so nam je poznane kot izvor ogljika, kjer nastaja CO2,

into carbon sinks, which absorb them.

v ponore ogljika, kjer se ta absorbira.

If you prefer a techno solution,

Če imate raje tehnične rešitve,

maybe we can grow some of that mean in the lab.

morda lahko gojimo nekaj mesa tudi v laboratoriju.

Probably, we could also feed some real cattle seaweed,

Verjetno bi lahko tudi krmili prava goveda z algami,

because that cuts their methane emissions by as much as 95 or 99 percent.

ker to zmanjšuje njihove emisije metana za kar 95 ali 99 odstotkov.

Probably, we'd have to do all of these things,

Verjetno bi vse te stvari morali storiti,

because as with every aspect of this puzzle,

saj kot pri vsakem vidiku te sestavljanke,

the problem is simply too vast and complicated

problem je preprosto preveč obsežen in zapleten,

to solve in any single silver-bullet way.

da bi ga lahko reševali na kakršen koli posamezen način.

And no matter how many solutions we deploy,

In ne glede na to koliko rešitev bomo uvajali,

we probably won't be able to decarbonize in time.

se verjetno ne bomo mogli pravočasno razogljičiti.

That's the terrifying math that we face.

To je grozljiva matematika, s katero se soočamo.

We won't be able to beat climate change,

Ne bomo mogli premagati podnebnih sprememb,

only live with it and limit it.

lahko samo živimo z njimi in jih omejimo.

And that means we'd probably need

To pomeni, da bomo verjetno potrebovali,

some amount of what are called negative emissions,

neko količino negativnih emisij,

which take carbon out of the atmosphere as well.

ki vzame ogljik iz atmosfere.

Billions of new trees, maybe trillions of new trees.

Milijarde novih dreves, morda trilijone novih dreves.

And whole plantations of carbon-capture machines.

In cele plantaže strojev za zajemanje ogljika.

Perhaps an industry twice or four times the size

Morda industrija, ki bo dvakrat ali štirikrat večja

of today's oil and gas business

od današnjih naftnih in plinskih podjetji,

to undo the damage that was done by those businesses in past decades.

da popravimo škodo, narejeno s strani teh podjetij v zadnjih desetletjih.

We would need a new kind of infrastructure,

Potrebovali bi novo infrastrukturo,

poured by a different kind of cement,

grajeno z drugačno obliko cementa,

because today, if cement were a country,

ker danes, če bi bil cement država,

it would be the world's third biggest emitter.

bi bila tretja največja onesnaževalka na Zemlji.

And China is pouring as much cement every three years

In Kitajska, vsaka tri leta porabi enako količino cementa

as the US poured in the entire 20th century.

kot so ga ZDA uporabile v celem 20. stoletju

We would need to build seawalls and levees

Mi bi morali graditi zidove in nasipe,

to protect those people living on the coast,

za zaščito tistih ljudi, ki živijo na obalnih predelih.

many of whom are too poor to build them today,

Mnogi so preveč revni da bi jih pričeli graditi danes,

which is why it must mean an end to a narrowly nationalistic geopolitics

zaradi česar to mora pomeniti konec ozke nacionalistične geopolitike,

that allows us to define the suffering of those living elsewhere in the world

ki nam omogoča, da vidimo trpljenje tistih, ki živijo drugje po svetu

as insignificant,

kot nepomembno,

when we even acknowledge it.

kadar si sploh to priznamo.

This better future won't be easy.

Ta boljša prihodnost ne bo lahka.

But the only obstacles are human ones.

Toda edine ovire so človeške.

That may not be much of a comfort,

To morda ni v veliko tolažbo,

if you know what I know about human brutality and indifference,

če veste, kaj jaz vem o človeški brutalnosti in brezbrižnosti,

but I promise you, it is better than the alternative.

vendar vam obljubim, je boljše od alternative.

Science isn't stopping us from taking action,

Znanost nas ne ustavlja, da stopimo v akcijo,

and neither is technology.

prav tako nas ne ustavlja tehnologija.

We have the tools we need today to begin.

Imamo orodja da pričnemo z delom že danes.

Of course, we also have the tools we need to end global poverty,

Seveda imamo tudi orodja, ki jih potrebujemo za odpravo svetovne revščine,

epidemic disease

epidemij

and the abuse of women as well.

in tudi zlorab žensk.

Which is why more than new tools, we need a new politics,

Zato bolj kot nova orodja, potrebujemo novo politiko,

a way of overcoming all those human obstacles --

način, da premagamo vse te človeške ovire -

our culture, our economics,

našo kulturo, našo ekonomijo

our status quo bias,

našo pristranskost do "status quo",

our disinterest in taking seriously anything that really scares us.

našo nezainteresiranost, da bi resno jemali karkoli, kar nas resnično prestraši.

Our shortsightedness.

Našo kratkovidnost.

Our sense of self-interest.

Naš občutek lastnega interesa.

And the selfishness of the world's rich and powerful

In sebičnost svetovnih bogatašev in oblastnikov,

who have the least incentive to change anything.

ki kažejo najmanj spodbude, da bi karkoli spremenili.

Now, they will suffer too,

Tudi oni bodo trpeli,

but not as much as those with the least,

vendar ne toliko kot tisti z najmanj,

who have done the least to produce warming

ki so storili najmanj za segrevanje

and have benefited the least

in so imeli najmanj koristi

from the processes that have brought us to this crisis point

od procesov, ki so nas pripeljali v to krizno točko,

but will be burdened most in the decades ahead.

vendar pa bo najbolj obremenjeni v prihodnjih desetletjih.

A new politics

Nova politika

would make the matter of managing that burden,

bi morala upravljati s tem bremenom,

where it falls and how heavily,

določiti kam pade in kako močno.

the top priority of our time.

To bi morala biti prioriteta današnjega časa.

No matter what we do, climate change will transform modern life.

Ne glede kaj naredimo, podnebne spremembe bodo spremenile moderni način življenja.

Some amount of warming is already baked in and is inevitable,

Nekaj toplote je že "zapečene" in neizogibne,

which means probably some amount of additional suffering is, too.

kar pomeni, da je nek delež trpljenja, prav tako neizogiben.

And even if we take dramatic action

In tudi če sprejmemo dramatične ukrepe

and avoid some of these truly terrifying worst-case scenarios,

in se izognemo nekaterim resnično grozljivim scenarijem,

it would mean living on an entirely different planet.

bi pomenilo živeti na povsem drugem planetu.

With a new politics, a new economics,

Z novo politiko, z novo ekonomijo,

a new relationship to technology

z novim odnosom do tehnologije

and a new relationship to nature --

in z novim odnosom do narave,

a whole new world.

cel nov svet.

But a relatively livable one.

Ampak razmeroma dober za življenje

Relatively prosperous.

Razmeroma uspešen.

And green.

In zelen.

Why not choose that one?

Zakaj ne izberemo tega?

Thank you.

Hvala.

(Applause)

(aplavz).