How we could change the planet's climate future | David Wallace-Wells

Transcriber: Ivana Korom Reviewer: Krystian Aparta

譯者: Lilian Chiu 審譯者: Edrian Liu

I'm here to talk about climate change,

我來這裡是要談氣候變遷，

but I'm not really an environmentalist.

但我其實不是環境學家。

In fact, I've never really thought of myself as a nature person.

事實上，我從來沒有想過 我會是個關心大自然的人。

I have never gone camping, never gone hiking,

我從來沒有去露營或健行過，

never even owned a pet.

從來沒有養過寵物。

I've lived my whole life in cities,

我一生都住在城市中，

actually just one city.

且都是同一個城市。

And while I like to take trips to visit nature,

雖然我喜歡外出旅行去看大自然，

I always thought it was something that was happening elsewhere,

但我總認為氣候變遷 發生在其他地方，

far away,

很遠的地方，

with all of modern life a fortress against its forces.

而現代生活是座保壘，

可以對抗它的力量。

In other words,

換言之，

like just about everybody I knew,

就和我認識的所有人一樣，

I lived my life complacent

我過著自我滿足的生活，

and deluded

搞不清楚

about the threat from global warming.

全球暖化的威脅。

Which I took to be happening slowly,

我以為全球暖化發生的速度很慢，

happening at a distance

發生在很遠的地方，

and representing only a modest threat to the way that I lived.

且對我所過的生活 不會有太大的威脅。

In each of these ways,

上述的每個想法，

I was very, very wrong.

都大錯特錯。

Now most people, if they were telling you about climate change,

通常別人跟你談氣候變遷時， 都會說未來的故事。

will tell you a story about the future.

如果是我，我會說：

If I was doing that, I would say,

"According to the UN, if we don't change course,

「聯合國說，這世紀末前 我們再不做出改變，

by the end of the century,

我們就會有攝氏四度的暖化。」

we're likely to get about four degrees Celsius of warming."

有些科學家相信，四度的暖化就表示

That would mean, some scientists believe,

twice as much war,

戰爭會加倍、

half as much food,

食物會減半、

a global GDP possibly 20 percent smaller than it would be without climate change.

全球 GDP 可能會比沒有 氣候變遷的狀況低 20%。

That's an impact that's deeper than the Great Depression,

這個衝擊比經濟大蕭條更深，

and it would be permanent.

且會是永久性的。

But the impacts are actually happening a lot faster than 2100.

但，影響其實發生得很快， 遠早於 2100 年。

By just 2050, it's estimated,

估計到了 2050 年，

many of the biggest cities in South Asia and the Middle East

南亞和中東的許多大城市

will be almost literally unlivably hot in summer.

在夏天會熱到幾乎無法居住。

These are cities that today are home to 10, 12, 15 million people.

現今有一千萬、一千兩百萬、

一千五百萬人住在這些城市。

And in just three decades,

只要再三十年，

you wouldn't be able to walk around outside in them

你只要在這些城市的室外走動

without risking heatstroke or possibly death.

就有中暑的風險，甚至可能會死亡。

The planet is now 1.1 degrees Celsius warmer

地球現在的溫度已經比工業化之前

than it was before industrialization.

高出攝氏 1.1 度了。

That may not sound like a lot,

聽起來可能不太多，

but it actually puts us entirely outside the window of temperatures

但那就已經讓我們的溫度落在

整個人類歷史的溫度範圍之外了。

that enclose all of human history.

That means that everything we have ever known as a species,

那就表示，我們人類所知道的一切，

the evolution of the human animal,

人類動物的演化，

the development of agriculture,

農業的發展，

the development of rudimentary civilization

初期文明、現代文明、

and modern civilization and industrial civilization,

工業文明的發展，

everything we know about ourselves as biological creatures,

我們對於我們這種生物動物、

as social creatures, as political creatures,

社交動物、政治動物所知的一切，

all of it is the result of climate conditions

所有這些，通通都是

we have already left behind.

我們過去氣候條件的結果。

It's like we've landed on an entirely different planet,

現在彷彿我們降落在 一個不同的星球上，

with an entirely different climate.

這裡有著不同的氣候。

And we now have to figure out

現在我們得弄清楚

what of the civilization that we've brought with us

我們帶來的文明中，有哪些

can endure these new conditions

可以承受這些新條件，

and what can't.

哪些不能。

And things will get worse from here.

且，從此之後，只會每況愈下。

Now for a very long time,

有很長一段時間，

we were told that climate change was a slow saga.

我們都聽說氣候變化 是個很緩慢的傳說。

It started with the industrial revolution,

它從工業革命開始，

and it had fallen to us

替我們的上上代收拾善後 變成是我們的責任，

to clean up the mess left by our grandparents

so our grandchildren wouldn't be dealing with the results.

這樣我們的孩子才不用 去面對那些後果。

這是個橫跨數世紀的故事。

It was a story of centuries.

In fact, half of all of the emissions

事實上，在整個人類歷史中，

that have ever been produced from the burning of fossil fuels

因為燃燒化石燃料所產生的排放量，

in the entire history of humanity

have been produced in just the last 30 years.

有一半都是在過去三十年間產生的。

That's since Al Gore published his first book on warming.

也就是在高爾出版了他的 第一本關於暖化的書之後。

It's since the UN established its IPCC climate change body.

也就是聯合國建立了政府間 氣候變化專門委員會之後。

We've done more damage since then

我們在那之後所造成的傷害

than in all the centuries, all the millennia before.

就已經超過了在那之前 數百年、數千年的傷害。

Now I'm 37 years old,

我現在三十七歲，

which means my life contains this entire story.

那就表示我的人生會經歷這整個故事。

When I was born, the planet's climate seemed stable.

我出生時，地球的氣候似乎還穩定。

Today,

現今，

we are on the brink of catastrophe.

我們已經在大災難的邊緣。

The climate crisis is not the legacy of our ancestors.

氣候危機不是我們祖先的遺產。

It is the work of a single generation.

它是一個世代的傑作。

Ours.

我們這個世代。

This may all sound like bad news.

可能聽起來通通都是壞消息。

Which it is, really bad news.

的確，都是壞消息。

But it also contains, I think,

但，我認為，當中也有

some good news, at least relatively speaking.

一些好消息，至少相對算好。

These impacts are terrifyingly large.

這些影響大得驚人。

But they are also, I think, exhilarating.

但，我想，它們也令人振奮。

Because they are ultimately a reflection

因為最終它們是一種反映，

of how much power we have over the climate.

反映出我們對氣候有多少控制權。

If we get to those hellish scenarios,

如果我們之後發生了 那些可怖的情況，

it will be because we have made them happen,

那是因為我們造成的，

because we have chosen to make them happen.

是我們選擇讓那些情況發生的。

Which means we can choose to make other scenarios happen, too.

那就表示，我們也可以 選擇讓其他情況發生。

Now that may seem too rosy to believe

那聽起來可能太美好，很難置信，

and the political obstacles are in fact enormous.

且實際上的政治阻礙很巨大。

But it is a simple fact --

但事實很簡單——

the main driver of global warming is human action:

全球暖化的主要推手 就是人類行為：

How much carbon we put into the atmosphere.

我們把多少碳送到大氣中。

Our hands are on those levers.

我們的手就在那些控制桿上。

And we can write the story of the planet's climate future ourselves.

我們自己能撰寫關於 地球氣候未來的故事。

Not just can -- but are.

不是「能」——是「正在」。

Since inaction is a kind of action,

因為不行動也是一種行動，

we'll be writing that story ourselves whether we like it or not.

不論我們喜歡與否， 我們都會寫下那個故事。

This is not just any story,

這不只是一個故事而已，

all of us holding the future of the planet in our hands.

地球的未來就掌控在 我們所有人的手中。

It's the kind of story we used to recognize only in mythology

這是以前我們只會在神話

和神學當中才會看到的故事。

and theology.

A single generation

單單一個世代

that has brought the future of humanity into doubt

就讓人類的未來存疑，

now tasked with securing a new future.

現在這個世代的任務 是要確保有嶄新的未來。

So what would that look like?

那會是什麼樣子的？

It could mean solar arrays barnacling the planet,

可能會是太陽能板遍佈地球，

really everywhere you looked.

真的到處都可見到。

It could mean if we developed better technology,

這可能表示我們開發出更好的技術，

我們甚至不用廣泛施行這項技術，

we wouldn't even need to deploy them that broadly,

because it's been estimated that just a sliver of the Sahara desert

因為，據估計， 光是撒哈拉沙漠的一小塊

absorbs enough solar power to provide all the world's energy needs.

就足以吸收足夠的太陽能， 供應全世界需要的能量。

But we'd probably need a new electric grid,

但我們可能會需要新的電力網，

one that doesn't lose two-thirds of its power to waste heat,

且不能像現今美國的電力網，

把三分之二的電力浪費在廢熱上。

as is today the case in the US.

We could use some more nuclear power, perhaps,

我們可能會需要更多一些核能，

although it would have to be an entirely different kind of nuclear power,

不過，會是完全不同類的核能，

because today's technology simply isn't cost-competitive

因為現今的技術 在成本上沒有競爭力，

with renewable energy whose costs are falling so rapidly.

無法和成本快速下降的 再生能源競爭。

We'd need a new kind of plane,

我們會需要一種新飛機，

because I don't think it's particularly practical

因為我認為，要求全世界都放棄

to ask the entire world to give up on air travel,

航空旅行是不太實際的做法，

especially as so much of the global South

特別是因為這是 大部分南半球有史以來

is, for the very first time, able to afford it.

第一次能負擔得起航空旅行。

We need planes that won't produce carbon.

我們需要不會產生碳的飛機。

We need a new kind of agriculture.

我們需要一種新的農業。

Because we probably can't ask people to entirely give up on meat and go vegan,

因為我們可能無法要求大家 完全放棄吃肉，改吃素，

那就表示要用新方法來飼養食用牛。

it would mean a new way of raising beef.

Or perhaps an old way,

或者也許可以延用古早的方法，

since we already know that traditional pasturing practices

因為我們已經知道傳統放牧法

can turn cattle farms

會讓養牛場

from what are called carbon sources, which produce CO2,

從產生二氧化碳的碳來源

into carbon sinks, which absorb them.

轉變成能吸收碳的碳匯。

If you prefer a techno solution,

若你偏好技術性解決方案，

maybe we can grow some of that mean in the lab.

也許我們可以在實驗室中 培養出一些肉類。

Probably, we could also feed some real cattle seaweed,

也許我們可以用海草來餵牛，

because that cuts their methane emissions by as much as 95 or 99 percent.

因為那會將牠們的甲烷排放 減低 95% 或 99%。

Probably, we'd have to do all of these things,

可能上述的通通都要做到，

because as with every aspect of this puzzle,

因為，不論是這個難題的哪個面向，

the problem is simply too vast and complicated

問題都太大、太複雜，

to solve in any single silver-bullet way.

無法用萬能的單一招式來解決。

And no matter how many solutions we deploy,

不論我們施行多少種解決方案，

we probably won't be able to decarbonize in time.

我們可能都無法即時將碳除去。

That's the terrifying math that we face.

我們面對的是很駭人的數學。

We won't be able to beat climate change,

我們將無法打敗氣候變遷，

only live with it and limit it.

只能和它共存並限制它。

And that means we'd probably need

那就表示我們可能會需要 一些所謂的負排放，

some amount of what are called negative emissions,

which take carbon out of the atmosphere as well.

也就是將碳從大氣中去除。

Billions of new trees, maybe trillions of new trees.

數十億，可能數兆棵新樹木。

And whole plantations of carbon-capture machines.

還有一大片的捕碳機器。

Perhaps an industry twice or four times the size

可能還要有一個產業，規模是

現今石油天然氣事業的二或四倍，

of today's oil and gas business

to undo the damage that was done by those businesses in past decades.

來將那些事業在過去數十年 所造成的傷害給還原。

We would need a new kind of infrastructure,

我們會需要一種新的基礎建設，

poured by a different kind of cement,

注入不同類的水泥，

because today, if cement were a country,

因為，現今，如果水泥是個國家，

it would be the world's third biggest emitter.

它會是全世界第三大的排放國。

And China is pouring as much cement every three years

中國每三年所使用的水泥量

as the US poured in the entire 20th century.

相當於美國在整個 二十世紀所使用的量。

We would need to build seawalls and levees

我們也需要建立防波堤和堤壩

to protect those people living on the coast,

來保護住在海岸邊的人，

many of whom are too poor to build them today,

這些人當中有許多都 太貧窮，無法築堤，

which is why it must mean an end to a narrowly nationalistic geopolitics

這就是為什麼，

必須要終結狹隘的 國家主義地緣政治，

that allows us to define the suffering of those living elsewhere in the world

不要再把世界上其他地方的人

所受到的苦難定義為不重要的，

as insignificant,

when we even acknowledge it.

且我們還承認那些苦難。

This better future won't be easy.

這個更好的未來並不容易達成。

But the only obstacles are human ones.

但唯一的障礙就是人為障礙。

That may not be much of a comfort,

如果你知道我所知道的 人類殘酷和冷漠，

if you know what I know about human brutality and indifference,

可能會覺得這一點也不讓人欣慰，

but I promise you, it is better than the alternative.

但我向各位保證， 這還是比其他選擇更好。

Science isn't stopping us from taking action,

科學並沒有阻止我們採取行動，

and neither is technology.

技術也沒有。

We have the tools we need today to begin.

我們現今已經有起步 所需要的工具了。

Of course, we also have the tools we need to end global poverty,

當然，我們也有必要的工具

可以終結全球貧困、大流行的疾病，

epidemic disease

and the abuse of women as well.

還有對女性的虐待。

Which is why more than new tools, we need a new politics,

這就是為什麼我們需要 新政治多於新工具，

a way of overcoming all those human obstacles --

我們需要一種方式來克服 所有這些人為障礙——

our culture, our economics,

我們的文化、我們的經濟、

our status quo bias,

我們的現況偏見、

our disinterest in taking seriously anything that really scares us.

我們沒有意願想要認真看待 會讓我們害怕的事物。

Our shortsightedness.

我們的短淺目光。

Our sense of self-interest.

我們的自利。

And the selfishness of the world's rich and powerful

以及世界上有錢有權

且最沒有動機去改變的人的自私。

who have the least incentive to change anything.

Now, they will suffer too,

他們將來也會受苦，

but not as much as those with the least,

但不會像弱勢的人那麼苦，

who have done the least to produce warming

弱勢的人對暖化的貢獻最少，

and have benefited the least

在把我們帶到現今 這個危機點的過程中，

from the processes that have brought us to this crisis point

他們卻也受益最少，

but will be burdened most in the decades ahead.

但在將來的數十年， 他們的擔子會最重。

A new politics

新政治

would make the matter of managing that burden,

會讓管理那些重擔的問題，

where it falls and how heavily,

比如重擔落在哪裡、有多重，

the top priority of our time.

成為我們這個時代的 最優先處理議題。

No matter what we do, climate change will transform modern life.

不論我們怎麼做，

氣候變遷都會改變現代生活。

Some amount of warming is already baked in and is inevitable,

有些暖化已經發生，無可避免，

which means probably some amount of additional suffering is, too.

那就表示，可能也會 有一些額外的苦難。

And even if we take dramatic action

即使我們採取大動作，

and avoid some of these truly terrifying worst-case scenarios,

並避免一些很駭人的最糟情況，

it would mean living on an entirely different planet.

那就表示居住在一個 完全不同的星球上。

With a new politics, a new economics,

有著新政治、新經濟、

a new relationship to technology

和科技的新關係，

and a new relationship to nature --

以及和大自然的新關係——

a whole new world.

全新的世界。

But a relatively livable one.

但，相對是比較宜居的世界。

Relatively prosperous.

相對比較繁榮。

And green.

且比較綠。

Why not choose that one?

為什麼不選那個世界？

Thank you.

謝謝。

(Applause)

（掌聲）