How we could change the planet's climate future | David Wallace-Wells

Transcriber: Ivana Korom Reviewer: Krystian Aparta

翻译人员: Yizhuo He 校对人员: Jiasi Hao

今天我在这儿想讲讲气候变化，

I'm here to talk about climate change,

but I'm not really an environmentalist.

但我其实不算是环保主义者。

In fact, I've never really thought of myself as a nature person.

事实上，我从不认为 自己是个亲近自然的人。

I have never gone camping, never gone hiking,

我从没露营过，也没远足过，

从没养过宠物。

never even owned a pet.

I've lived my whole life in cities,

我从出生起就住在城市里，

actually just one city.

而且我只待过一座城市。

尽管我喜欢以郊游的方式亲近自然，

And while I like to take trips to visit nature,

I always thought it was something that was happening elsewhere,

我却总觉得气候变化 像是发生在别处，

far away,

发生在很远的地方，

with all of modern life a fortress against its forces.

而所有现代生活是一个堡垒 可以对抗它的力量。

In other words,

换言之，

like just about everybody I knew,

我就和其他我认识的人一样，

I lived my life complacent

过着怡然自得的生活，

and deluded

欺骗着自己

about the threat from global warming.

全球变暖不是什么大威胁。

我总认为全球变暖的速度很慢，

Which I took to be happening slowly,

happening at a distance

也离我很远，

and representing only a modest threat to the way that I lived.

而且对我的生活 几乎不会构成什么威胁。

In each of these ways,

然而我所有的这些想法，

都错得非常离谱。

I was very, very wrong.

Now most people, if they were telling you about climate change,

现在大多数人在谈到气候变化时，

都会和你讲一个关于未来的故事。

will tell you a story about the future.

如果我也采用那种方式，我会说些：

If I was doing that, I would say,

"According to the UN, if we don't change course,

“根据联合国的预测， 如果我们还不做出改变，

那么到这个世纪末，

by the end of the century,

全球气温会上升四摄氏度左右。”

we're likely to get about four degrees Celsius of warming."

That would mean, some scientists believe,

一些科学家认为，这个数据意味着

twice as much war,

战争会多一倍，

食物会少一半，

half as much food,

a global GDP possibly 20 percent smaller than it would be without climate change.

全球 GDP 相比没有 气候变化的时候会下降 20% 。

That's an impact that's deeper than the Great Depression,

气候变化所产生的影响 将会比经济大萧条还严重，

and it would be permanent.

而且这种影响将会是永久存在的。

But the impacts are actually happening a lot faster than 2100.

不过在 21 世纪后， 这种影响的发生速度变得更快。

By just 2050, it's estimated,

据预测，到了 2050 年，

many of the biggest cities in South Asia and the Middle East

很多那些在南亚和中东规模最大的城市

will be almost literally unlivably hot in summer.

会迎来无法忍受的夏日热浪。

These are cities that today are home to 10, 12, 15 million people.

这些城市现在是一千万、 一千两百万， 一千五百万人的家。

And in just three decades,

而只要三十年，

you wouldn't be able to walk around outside in them

如果你在这些城市的户外步行，

without risking heatstroke or possibly death.

你将面临的可能是中暑， 甚至是死亡的危险。

现在地球的气温 已经比工业化时期之前的气温

The planet is now 1.1 degrees Celsius warmer

than it was before industrialization.

高了 1.1 摄氏度。

That may not sound like a lot,

听上去可能不多，

but it actually puts us entirely outside the window of temperatures

但这实际是这已经达到了 我们人类历史上

that enclose all of human history.

最高的温度范围。

That means that everything we have ever known as a species,

这意味着我们人类 作为一个物种所熟知的一切——

人类文明的演化，

the evolution of the human animal,

the development of agriculture,

农业的发展，

the development of rudimentary civilization

原始文明的发展，

and modern civilization and industrial civilization,

现代文明和工业文明，

everything we know about ourselves as biological creatures,

我们人类作为生物，

as social creatures, as political creatures,

作为社会生物，作为政治生物，

所了解的一切都是 我们所忽视忘却的

all of it is the result of climate conditions

we have already left behind.

气候条件的产物。

It's like we've landed on an entirely different planet,

这就像是我们在另一颗 完全不同的星球上着陆一样，

with an entirely different climate.

那里有着完全不同的气候。

And we now have to figure out

而我们现在需要思考

what of the civilization that we've brought with us

我们人类文明中的哪些

can endure these new conditions

能忍受这种新的气候条件，

and what can't.

而哪些不能。

And things will get worse from here.

尤其以后的情况还会变得更糟。

Now for a very long time,

很长一段时间，

we were told that climate change was a slow saga.

我们都被告知说 气候变化是很缓慢的。

It started with the industrial revolution,

它从工业革命时期就已经开始，

and it had fallen to us

而我们这一代人

to clean up the mess left by our grandparents

得去收拾我们祖辈所留下的残局，

so our grandchildren wouldn't be dealing with the results.

以至于我们的后代 才不用继续处理这个乱局。

It was a story of centuries.

这是几个世纪共同造就的结果。

In fact, half of all of the emissions

事实上，我们人类史上

that have ever been produced from the burning of fossil fuels

所有因燃烧化石燃料

而产生的温室气体中

in the entire history of humanity

have been produced in just the last 30 years.

有一半都是 在过去三十年间所产生的。

That's since Al Gore published his first book on warming.

那是在阿尔·戈尔（Al Gore）出版了 第一本关于气候变暖的书之后，

It's since the UN established its IPCC climate change body.

联合国政府间气候变化 专门委员会成立之后。

We've done more damage since then

我们自那之后造成的破坏

比前几个世纪加起来还要多。

than in all the centuries, all the millennia before.

Now I'm 37 years old,

我现在 37 岁，

which means my life contains this entire story.

我的人生涵盖了这整个过程。

When I was born, the planet's climate seemed stable.

当我出生时， 地球的气候看似还很稳定。

Today,

而如今，

we are on the brink of catastrophe.

我们却已被推向灾难的边缘了。

The climate crisis is not the legacy of our ancestors.

气候危机并不是我们祖先留下的。

It is the work of a single generation.

它是由一代人所造成的。

Ours.

我们所造成的。

This may all sound like bad news.

这听上去可能都是些坏消息。

Which it is, really bad news.

这些确实都是很不好的消息。

But it also contains, I think,

但我相信，这其中

也存在一些好消息， 至少相对而言是这样。

some good news, at least relatively speaking.

These impacts are terrifyingly large.

这些影响大到令人恐惧。

But they are also, I think, exhilarating.

但我认为这同时也是令人振奋的。

Because they are ultimately a reflection

因为它们最终所反映出的

of how much power we have over the climate.

是我们对气候的极大掌控力。

If we get to those hellish scenarios,

我们之所以会陷入 如今这地狱般的处境，

it will be because we have made them happen,

是因为我们让这些发生，

because we have chosen to make them happen.

是因为我们选择让这些发生。

Which means we can choose to make other scenarios happen, too.

这意味着我们也可以选择 让其它的情况发生。

Now that may seem too rosy to believe

现在你们可能觉得 我这么说太乐观了，

and the political obstacles are in fact enormous.

现实存在的政治阻碍太多了。

但一个简单的事实是——

But it is a simple fact --

the main driver of global warming is human action:

导致全球变暖的 主要原因是人类活动：

How much carbon we put into the atmosphere.

我们往大气中排放了多少的碳。

Our hands are on those levers.

我们的双手在撬动着这个杠杆。

我们也可以亲自书写 地球未来的气候情况。

And we can write the story of the planet's climate future ourselves.

Not just can -- but are.

不止是可以，我们现在也正在这么做。

Since inaction is a kind of action,

毕竟不作为也是一种作为，

we'll be writing that story ourselves whether we like it or not.

不管我们愿不愿意， 我们都将书写以后的故事。

这不只是什么普通的故事，

This is not just any story,

all of us holding the future of the planet in our hands.

我们所有人都掌握着 这颗星球的未来。

It's the kind of story we used to recognize only in mythology

我们过去只在神话或宗教故事中

听过这样的故事。

and theology.

A single generation

一代人

that has brought the future of humanity into doubt

将人类的未来置于一种不利的处境，

now tasked with securing a new future.

而现在，他们肩负着 一个保障新未来的使命。

So what would that look like?

所以这看起来会是怎样的？

It could mean solar arrays barnacling the planet,

那可能意味着太阳能电池 会充斥着整个星球，

目所能及的地方都是。

really everywhere you looked.

那可能意味着 如果我们的科技更进一步，

It could mean if we developed better technology,

我们将甚至不用 那么大范围地部署它们，

we wouldn't even need to deploy them that broadly,

because it's been estimated that just a sliver of the Sahara desert

因为据预测未来仅需撒哈拉沙漠 其中的一小块电池板

absorbs enough solar power to provide all the world's energy needs.

就能吸收足够多的太阳能 来满足全球的能源需求。

不过我们大概会需要一种新型电网，

But we'd probably need a new electric grid,

不会有三分之二的能量 被转化为热能而浪费的电网，

one that doesn't lose two-thirds of its power to waste heat,

现在美国所使用的电网就是这样的。

as is today the case in the US.

We could use some more nuclear power, perhaps,

我们也许能更多地使用核能，

although it would have to be an entirely different kind of nuclear power,

但那得是一种完全不一样的核能源，

because today's technology simply isn't cost-competitive

因为现在的科技跟价格不断下降的

with renewable energy whose costs are falling so rapidly.

可再生能源相比 并不具备价格优势。

We'd need a new kind of plane,

我们需要一种新型的飞机，

because I don't think it's particularly practical

因为我认为让全世界的人

to ask the entire world to give up on air travel,

都放弃乘飞机不太现实，

especially as so much of the global South

特别是现在很多欠发达国家的居民

is, for the very first time, able to afford it.

刚开始能负担得起机票。

We need planes that won't produce carbon.

我们需要不会排放碳的飞机。

We need a new kind of agriculture.

我们也需要一种新型的农业。

Because we probably can't ask people to entirely give up on meat and go vegan,

毕竟我们不太可能 让所有人放弃吃肉，转吃素，

我们需要一种新的饲养牛肉的方式。

it would mean a new way of raising beef.

Or perhaps an old way,

或者是改用以前的方式，

since we already know that traditional pasturing practices

因为传统的放牧方法

可以使牧牛场

can turn cattle farms

从释放二氧化碳的碳源

from what are called carbon sources, which produce CO2,

转变为吸收碳的碳吸附井。

into carbon sinks, which absorb them.

If you prefer a techno solution,

如果你偏好使用科技手段，

maybe we can grow some of that mean in the lab.

或许我们也能在实验室 生产一些肉制品。

Probably, we could also feed some real cattle seaweed,

也许我们还可以用海藻喂牛，

because that cuts their methane emissions by as much as 95 or 99 percent.

因为那样可以降低 95% 至 99% 的甲烷排放量。

Probably, we'd have to do all of these things,

我们可能得做到 以上所有的这些事情，

因为毕竟这一大块拼图的 每一小块，即每一方面，

because as with every aspect of this puzzle,

the problem is simply too vast and complicated

都是一个庞大且复杂的问题，

to solve in any single silver-bullet way.

不可能一蹴而就。

And no matter how many solutions we deploy,

而且不管我们最终 部署多少种解决方法，

we probably won't be able to decarbonize in time.

我们大概都不能及时地降低碳排放量。

That's the terrifying math that we face.

这是我们需要面对的可怕现实。

We won't be able to beat climate change,

我们无法击败气候变化，

only live with it and limit it.

只能与它共存并限制它。

And that means we'd probably need

而那意味着我们可能还需要

some amount of what are called negative emissions,

一些所谓的负碳排放，

which take carbon out of the atmosphere as well.

意思是从大气中吸收碳。

Billions of new trees, maybe trillions of new trees.

我们需要种数十亿棵的树， 也可能种数万亿棵新树才够。

And whole plantations of carbon-capture machines.

我们需要摆满整个种植园、 能捕获碳的机器。

Perhaps an industry twice or four times the size

我们大概需要一个相当于 当今石油和天然气产业

两到四倍大的产业，

of today's oil and gas business

to undo the damage that was done by those businesses in past decades.

才能弥补这些产业在 过去数十年间所造成的破坏。

We would need a new kind of infrastructure,

我们将需要新型的基础设施，

poured by a different kind of cement,

倾倒一种新型的水泥，

因为当今， 如果把水泥看作一个国家的话，

because today, if cement were a country,

it would be the world's third biggest emitter.

那它现在能算是 世界上第三大的碳排放国。

And China is pouring as much cement every three years

中国每三年所倾倒的水泥总量

as the US poured in the entire 20th century.

相当于美国在整个 二十世纪所倾倒的总量。

We would need to build seawalls and levees

我们需要筑建海堤和防洪堤

to protect those people living on the coast,

来保护那些住在海滨的人们，

many of whom are too poor to build them today,

现在他们中的很多人 都没钱能筑建这些，

which is why it must mean an end to a narrowly nationalistic geopolitics

这也是为什么我们必须终结 狭隘的国家主义地缘政治，

that allows us to define the suffering of those living elsewhere in the world

因为那会让我们 将其他国家居民的苦难视为

是无关紧要的，

as insignificant,

when we even acknowledge it.

尽管我们知悉他们的苦难。

This better future won't be easy.

这个更好的未来不会轻易到来。

But the only obstacles are human ones.

唯一的阻碍是人类。

That may not be much of a comfort,

如果你们了解 我对人类的残暴与冷漠有多了解，

if you know what I know about human brutality and indifference,

你们也不会感到多欣慰，

but I promise you, it is better than the alternative.

但我向你们保证， 这绝对比不作为要好。

Science isn't stopping us from taking action,

科学不会阻挡我们采取行动，

and neither is technology.

科技也不会。

We have the tools we need today to begin.

现在开始采取行动， 我们拥有所有需要用到的工具。

Of course, we also have the tools we need to end global poverty,

当然，我们也有终结全球贫困、

epidemic disease

终结流行病传播，

and the abuse of women as well.

和终结妇女虐待的方法。

这也是为什么除了新型工具， 我们还需要新型的政治，

Which is why more than new tools, we need a new politics,

a way of overcoming all those human obstacles --

我们需要克服所有 这些人为障碍——

our culture, our economics,

克服文化障碍、经济障碍、

our status quo bias,

克服现状偏见，

our disinterest in taking seriously anything that really scares us.

以及克服我们对 我们所恐惧之事的漠不关心。

克服目光短浅。

Our shortsightedness.

Our sense of self-interest.

克服利己主义。

And the selfishness of the world's rich and powerful

克服世界上富人与权贵的自私自利

who have the least incentive to change anything.

因为他们是最不愿做出改变的。

Now, they will suffer too,

但现在他们也将受苦，

but not as much as those with the least,

但他们所受的苦 远不及那些一无所有的、

who have done the least to produce warming

对全球变暖影响最小，

and have benefited the least

在那些导致我们走向 如今这一危机处境的行为中

from the processes that have brought us to this crisis point

获利最少

but will be burdened most in the decades ahead.

却会在未来数十年间 承受最多苦难负担的人。

这种新型的政治

A new politics

would make the matter of managing that burden,

能够减轻这种负担，

where it falls and how heavily,

找到它源于何处， 这种负担有多重，

the top priority of our time.

这是我们这个时代的头等大事。

No matter what we do, climate change will transform modern life.

不管我们做什么， 气候变化都会转变当代生活。

Some amount of warming is already baked in and is inevitable,

有些气候变暖已经发生了， 而且无法避免，

which means probably some amount of additional suffering is, too.

这也意味着额外的苦难可能会降临。

And even if we take dramatic action

就算我们迅速采取行动

and avoid some of these truly terrifying worst-case scenarios,

以避免一些令人恐惧的 最坏情况的发生，

it would mean living on an entirely different planet.

那将意味着我们得生活在 一个完全不同的星球上——

With a new politics, a new economics,

采用一种新的政治，新的经济，

a new relationship to technology

与科技建立一种新的关系，

and a new relationship to nature --

与自然也建立一种新的联系——

a whole new world.

一个全新的世界。

But a relatively livable one.

但也是相对而言 更宜居的一个世界。

更繁荣，

Relatively prosperous.

And green.

更绿意盎然的世界。

Why not choose that one?

为何不选择那样的世界？

Thank you.

谢谢。

（掌声）

(Applause)