How we could change the planet's climate future | David Wallace-Wells

Transcriber: Ivana Korom Reviewer: Krystian Aparta

Translator: Noelia Collazo Boullosa Reviewer: Xosé María Moreno

Estou aquí para falar do cambio climático,

I'm here to talk about climate change,

but I'm not really an environmentalist.

pero realmente non son un ecoloxista.

In fact, I've never really thought of myself as a nature person.

De feito nunca me considerei unha persoa moi conectada coa natureza.

I have never gone camping, never gone hiking,

Nunca fun de campamento, nin fixen sendeirismo

never even owned a pet.

e nunca criei unha mascota.

I've lived my whole life in cities,

Vivín toda a miña vida en cidades,

actually just one city.

máis ben nunca única cidade.

And while I like to take trips to visit nature,

E aínda que me gusta viaxar para visitar a natureza,

I always thought it was something that was happening elsewhere,

sempre pensei nela como algo que ocorría noutro lugar,

far away,

moi lonxe,

with all of modern life a fortress against its forces.

e que a vida moderna era una fortaleza contra as súas forzas.

In other words,

Noutras palabras,

like just about everybody I knew,

como practicamente todas as persoas que coñezo,

I lived my life complacent

vivía a miña vida satisfeito conmigo mesmo

and deluded

e ignorando

about the threat from global warming.

a amenaza do quecemento global.

Which I took to be happening slowly,

Cousa que pensaba que acontecía lentamente,

happening at a distance

a unha gran distancia

and representing only a modest threat to the way that I lived.

e representaba tan só unha leve amenaza para a miña forma de vida.

In each of these ways,

Respecto a todas estas formulacións

I was very, very wrong.

estaba pero que moi equivocado.

Now most people, if they were telling you about climate change,

Agora a maioría da xente, cando fala do quecemento global

will tell you a story about the future.

conta unha historia sobre o futuro.

If I was doing that, I would say,

Se eu a contase, diría:

"According to the UN, if we don't change course,

"Segundo a ONU, se non cambiamos o rumbo,

by the end of the century,

para finais de século,

we're likely to get about four degrees Celsius of warming."

é probable que chegemos aos 4º C de quecemento.

Isto significaría, segundo algúns científicos,

That would mean, some scientists believe,

twice as much war,

o dobre de guerras,

half as much food,

a metade de alimentos,

a global GDP possibly 20 percent smaller than it would be without climate change.

un PIB global posiblemente dun 20 % menos do que sería sen o quecemento global.

That's an impact that's deeper than the Great Depression,

Isto suporía un impacto máis grave que o da Gran Depresión,

and it would be permanent.

e sería permanente.

But the impacts are actually happening a lot faster than 2100.

Pero en realidade os impactos vanse producir moito antes do 2100.

By just 2050, it's estimated,

Para o ano 2050, estímase

many of the biggest cities in South Asia and the Middle East

que moitas das grandes cidades de Asia do Sur e Oriente Medio

will be almost literally unlivably hot in summer.

serán literalmente inhabitables debido á calor que fará no verán.

These are cities that today are home to 10, 12, 15 million people.

Estas son cidades que hoxe en día acollen a 10, 12 ou 15 millóns de persoas.

And in just three decades,

E en tan só tres décadas,

you wouldn't be able to walk around outside in them

non se podería pasear por elas

without risking heatstroke or possibly death.

sen arriscarse a un golpe de calor ou a unha posible morte.

The planet is now 1.1 degrees Celsius warmer

Hoxe en día o planeta é 1.1º C máis quente

than it was before industrialization.

do que o era antes da industrialización.

That may not sound like a lot,

Pode que non pareza moito,

but it actually puts us entirely outside the window of temperatures

pero en realidade sitúanos totalmente fóra do escaparate de temperaturas

that enclose all of human history.

que envolven toda a historia humana.

That means that everything we have ever known as a species,

Isto quere dicir que todo o que coñeciamos como especie,

the evolution of the human animal,

a evolución do animal humano,

the development of agriculture,

o desenvolvemento da agricultura,

the development of rudimentary civilization

o da civilización rudimentaria,

and modern civilization and industrial civilization,

a civilización moderna e a industrial;

everything we know about ourselves as biological creatures,

todo o que coñeciamos sobre nós mesmo como criaturas biolóxicas,

as social creatures, as political creatures,

como criaturas socias, como criaturas políticas,

all of it is the result of climate conditions

todo iso é o resultado das condicións climáticas

we have already left behind.

que xa deixamos atrás.

It's like we've landed on an entirely different planet,

É como se aterrásemos nun planeta totalmente diferente,

with an entirely different climate.

cun clima totalmente diferente.

And we now have to figure out

E agora temos que descubrir

what of the civilization that we've brought with us

que parte da civilización que traemos connosco

can endure these new conditions

pode sobrevivir a estas condicións

and what can't.

e cal non.

And things will get worse from here.

E as cousas empeorarán a partir de agora.

Now for a very long time,

Durante moito tempo

we were told that climate change was a slow saga.

contáronnos que o cambio climático era como unha saga lenta.

It started with the industrial revolution,

Comezaba coa Revolución Industrial

and it had fallen to us

e tocábanos arranxar

to clean up the mess left by our grandparents

a desfeita que os nosos avós deixaron,

so our grandchildren wouldn't be dealing with the results.

para que os nosos netos non lidasen coas consecuencias.

It was a story of centuries.

Foi unha historia que durou séculos.

In fact, half of all of the emissions

De feito, a metade das emisións

that have ever been produced from the burning of fossil fuels

que producimos pola queima de combustibles fósiles

in the entire history of humanity

ao longo da historia da humanidade

have been produced in just the last 30 years.

producíronse tan só nos últimos 30 anos.

That's since Al Gore published his first book on warming.

Dende que Al Gore publicou o seu primeiro libro sobre quecemento global.

It's since the UN established its IPCC climate change body.

E dende que a ONU estableceu o seu organismo de cambio climático do IPCC

We've done more damage since then

causamos máis dano

than in all the centuries, all the millennia before.

que en todos os séculos e milenios anteriores.

Now I'm 37 years old,

Agora mesmo teño 37 anos,

which means my life contains this entire story.

o que significa que a miña vida contén toda esta historia.

When I was born, the planet's climate seemed stable.

Cando eu nacín parecía que o clima do planeta era estable.

Today,

Hoxe en día

we are on the brink of catastrophe.

estamos ao bordo da catástrofe.

The climate crisis is not the legacy of our ancestors.

A crise climática non é o legado dos nosos antepasados.

It is the work of a single generation.

É obra dunha única xeración.

Ours.

A nosa.

This may all sound like bad news.

Estas poden parecer malas noticias.

Which it is, really bad news.

En realidade son moi malas noticias.

But it also contains, I think,

Pero penso que tamén implican

some good news, at least relatively speaking.

algunhas boas noticias, aínda que sexa de forma relativa.

These impacts are terrifyingly large.

Estas consecuencias son terriblemente grandes.

But they are also, I think, exhilarating.

Pero penso que tamén son estimulantes.

Because they are ultimately a reflection

Porque son basicamente un reflexo

of how much power we have over the climate.

do grandísimo poder que temos sobre o clima.

If we get to those hellish scenarios,

Se chegamos a esas horribles situacións

it will be because we have made them happen,

será porque nós mesmos fixemos que ocorresen,

because we have chosen to make them happen.

porque escollemos deixar que ocorresen.

Which means we can choose to make other scenarios happen, too.

O que significa que podemos escoller que ocurran outras situacións tamén.

Now that may seem too rosy to believe

Pode que sexa un pensamento moi optimista

and the political obstacles are in fact enormous.

e, de feito, os obstáculos políticos son enormes.

Pero é algo moi simple.

But it is a simple fact --

the main driver of global warming is human action:

A causante do quecemento global é a actuación humana:

How much carbon we put into the atmosphere.

canto carbono aportamos á atmosfera?

Our hands are on those levers.

As nosas mans están nesa panca.

And we can write the story of the planet's climate future ourselves.

Nós mesmos podemos escribir a historia do futuro clima do planeta.

Not just can -- but are.

Non só podemos, senón que o faremos.

Since inaction is a kind of action,

Dado que a inactividade é un tipo de actividade,

we'll be writing that story ourselves whether we like it or not.

escribiremos esta historia queiramos ou non.

This is not just any story,

Non é unha historia calquera,

all of us holding the future of the planet in our hands.

a de todos nós sostendo o futuro do planeta nas nosas mans.

It's the kind of story we used to recognize only in mythology

É o tipo de historia que adoitabamos identificar só na mitoloxía

and theology.

e na teoloxía.

A single generation

Unha única xeración

that has brought the future of humanity into doubt

que puxo o futuro da humanidade en dúbida

now tasked with securing a new future.

e agora ten como tarefa asegurar un novo futuro.

So what would that look like?

Como sería este?

It could mean solar arrays barnacling the planet,

Poderiamos ter un planeta cuberto de paneis solares,

really everywhere you looked.

mirásemos a onde mirásemos.

It could mean if we developed better technology,

Podería supor que, no caso de desenvolver unha tecoloxía mellor,

we wouldn't even need to deploy them that broadly,

nin sequera precisásemos implementalos tan ampliamente,

because it's been estimated that just a sliver of the Sahara desert

xa que se calcula que tan só un chisco do deserto do Sáhara

absorbs enough solar power to provide all the world's energy needs.

absorbe suficiente enerxía solar para cubrir as necesidades mundiais.

But we'd probably need a new electric grid,

Pero probablemente precisariamos unha nova rede eléctrica,

one that doesn't lose two-thirds of its power to waste heat,

unha que non perda dous terzos da súa enerxía en calor residual

as is today the case in the US.

como ocorre hoxe en día nos EEUU.

We could use some more nuclear power, perhaps,

Quizais poderiamos utilizar máis enerxía nuclear,

although it would have to be an entirely different kind of nuclear power,

aínda que tería que ser un tipo de enerxía nuclear totalmente diferente,

because today's technology simply isn't cost-competitive

porque a tecnoloxía actual non é competitiva en custos

with renewable energy whose costs are falling so rapidly.

coa enerxía renovable, cuxos prezos están caendo rapidamente.

We'd need a new kind of plane,

Precisariamos un modelo novo de avión,

because I don't think it's particularly practical

porque non creo que sexa especialmente práctico

to ask the entire world to give up on air travel,

pedirlle ao mundo enteiro que non viaxe por aire,

especially as so much of the global South

sobre todo xa que gran parte do sur global,

is, for the very first time, able to afford it.

por primeira vez, ten cartos para facelo.

We need planes that won't produce carbon.

Precisamos avións que non produzan carbono.

We need a new kind of agriculture.

Precisamos un novo modelo de agricultura,

Because we probably can't ask people to entirely give up on meat and go vegan,

porque non podemos pedirlle á xente que renuncie á carne e se volva vegana.

Suporía unha nova forma de criar reses.

it would mean a new way of raising beef.

Or perhaps an old way,

Ou quzais unha antiga forma,

since we already know that traditional pasturing practices

dado que xa sabemos que as prácticas tradicionais de pastoreo

can turn cattle farms

poden converter as granxas de gando

from what are called carbon sources, which produce CO2,

que se coñecen como fontes de carbono, que producen CO2,

into carbon sinks, which absorb them.

en sumidoiros de carbono, que as absorben.

If you prefer a techno solution,

Se prefiren un remedio tecnolóxico

maybe we can grow some of that mean in the lab.

quizais poderiamos crear carne en laboratorios.

Probably, we could also feed some real cattle seaweed,

Probablemente poderiamos alimentar as reses con algas,

because that cuts their methane emissions by as much as 95 or 99 percent.

xa que iso reduciría as súas emisións de metano ata nun 95 ou 99 %.

Probably, we'd have to do all of these things,

Probablemente teriamos que facer todo isto,

because as with every aspect of this puzzle,

porque como en todos os aspectos deste crebacabezas,

the problem is simply too vast and complicated

o problema é demasiado grande e complicado

to solve in any single silver-bullet way.

para que se resolva de forma milagrosa.

And no matter how many solutions we deploy,

E non importa cantas solucións implementemos,

we probably won't be able to decarbonize in time.

probablemente non seremos capaces de descarbonizar a tempo.

That's the terrifying math that we face.

Enfrontámonos a uns números aterradores.

We won't be able to beat climate change,

Non podemos derrotar ao cambio climático,

only live with it and limit it.

tan só podemos vivir con el e limitalo.

And that means we'd probably need

Probablemente necesitariamos

some amount of what are called negative emissions,

certa cantidade do que chamamos emisións negativas,

which take carbon out of the atmosphere as well.

que tamén eliminan carbono da atmosfera.

Billions of new trees, maybe trillions of new trees.

Billóns de árbores novos, ou quizais trillóns.

And whole plantations of carbon-capture machines.

Plantacións enteiras de máquinas que capturen carbono.

Perhaps an industry twice or four times the size

Quizais unha industria o doble ou o cuádruple de grande

of today's oil and gas business

que o negocio do gas e o petróleo actual

to undo the damage that was done by those businesses in past decades.

para emendar o dano causado por eses negocios nas últimas décadas.

We would need a new kind of infrastructure,

Precisariamos un novo tipo de infraestrutura,

poured by a different kind of cement,

construída a base dun tipo diferente de cemento,

because today, if cement were a country,

porque actualmente, se este fose un país

it would be the world's third biggest emitter.

sería o terceiro emisor máis grande do mundo.

And China is pouring as much cement every three years

E China emprega tanto cemento cada tres anos

as the US poured in the entire 20th century.

como os EEUU en todo o século 20.

We would need to build seawalls and levees

Teriamos que construír quebraondas e diques

to protect those people living on the coast,

para protexer a todas as persoas que viven nas costas,

many of whom are too poor to build them today,

pero moitas son moi pobres para poder facelo actualmente.

which is why it must mean an end to a narrowly nationalistic geopolitics

Isto debería supor a fin das xeopolíticas estreitamente nacionalistas

that allows us to define the suffering of those living elsewhere in the world

que permiten definir o sufrimento dos que viven en calquera lugar do mundo

as insignificant,

como insignificante,

when we even acknowledge it.

incluso cando o recoñecemos.

This better future won't be easy.

Este futuro mellor non será sinxelo.

But the only obstacles are human ones.

Pero o único obstáculo son os humanos.

That may not be much of a comfort,

Pode que non sexa un gran sosego,

if you know what I know about human brutality and indifference,

se saben o mesmo ca min sobre a crueldade e a indiferenza humana,

but I promise you, it is better than the alternative.

pero prométolles que é mellor que a alternativa.

Science isn't stopping us from taking action,

A ciencia non nos impide tomar medidas

and neither is technology.

e a tecnoloxía tampouco.

We have the tools we need today to begin.

Posuímos as ferramentas que precisamos hoxe en día para comezar.

Of course, we also have the tools we need to end global poverty,

Por suposto, tamén temos as ferramentas necesarias para rematar coa fame,

epidemic disease

as enfermidades epidémicas

and the abuse of women as well.

e tamén o maltrato ás mulleres.

Which is why more than new tools, we need a new politics,

E é por iso que máis que ferramentas precisamos novas políticas,

a way of overcoming all those human obstacles --

unha maneira de vencer todos os obstáculos humanos:

our culture, our economics,

a nosa cultura, a nosa economía,

our status quo bias,

a tendencia a esta situación,

our disinterest in taking seriously anything that really scares us.

o noso desinterese por tomarnos en serio calquera cousa que temamos.

Our shortsightedness.

A nosa falta de visión.

Our sense of self-interest.

O noso sentido do interese propio.

And the selfishness of the world's rich and powerful

E o egoísmo dos ricos e poderosos do mundo,

who have the least incentive to change anything.

que teñen unha motivación mínima para cambiar algo.

Now, they will suffer too,

Agora si, eles tamén sufrirán,

but not as much as those with the least,

pero non tanto como os máis desfavorecidos,

who have done the least to produce warming

que farán o posible por producir menos quecemento

and have benefited the least

e serán os menos beneficiados

from the processes that have brought us to this crisis point

polos procesos que nos trouxeron a este punto da crise,

but will be burdened most in the decades ahead.

pero levarán unha carga maior nas vindeiras décadas.

A new politics

Unha nova política

would make the matter of managing that burden,

fará que manexar esa carga,

where it falls and how heavily,

onde cae e con que intensidade,

the top priority of our time.

sexa a principal prioridade da nosa época.

No matter what we do, climate change will transform modern life.

Fagamos o que fagamos, o quecemento global transformará a vida moderna.

Some amount of warming is already baked in and is inevitable,

Certa cantidade de quecemento xa está aí e é inevitable,

which means probably some amount of additional suffering is, too.

o que supón que seguramente tamén exista un sufrimiento adicional.

And even if we take dramatic action

E aínda que tomemos medias drásticas

and avoid some of these truly terrifying worst-case scenarios,

e evitemos algunhas destas verdadeiramente terroríficas situacións,

it would mean living on an entirely different planet.

significaría vivir un planeta totalmente diferente.

With a new politics, a new economics,

Cunha nova política, unha nova economía,

a new relationship to technology

unha nova relación coa tecnoloxía

and a new relationship to nature --

e unha nova relación coa natureza:

a whole new world.

un mundo totalmente novo.

But a relatively livable one.

Pero relativamente habitable.

Relatively prosperous.

Relativamente próspero.

And green.

E verde.

Why not choose that one?

Por que non o iamos escoller?

Thank you.

Grazas.

(Applause)

(Aplausos)